I Am Investor – Page 7 – Jl. GLOBAL #1

I Am Investor Jl. GLOBAL #1

d1am2suk4: BERTAHAN, china V amrik (2) (180915)

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KAITAN TREN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI TIONGKOK n INDONESIA 2011-2014 (http://jlmaensaham2012.blogspot.com/2015/03/bacaan-gw-soal-na1b-rupiahn-saham-kita.html) Metrotvnews.com, Washington: The Federal Reserve dalam pertemuan Komite Pasar Terbuka Federal (FMOC) memprediksikan ekonomi Amerika Serikat (AS) akan tumbuh sebesar 2,1 persen pada tahun ini. Namun demikian, bank sentral yang digawangi oleh Janet Yellen tersebut menurunkan proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi AS untuk 2016 menjadi 2,3 persen dari perkiraan sebelumnya yang dibuat pada Juni sebesar 2,5 persen. Reuters melansir, Jumat (18/9/2015), komite juga menurunkan proyeksi inflasi dalam dua tahun mendatang, di mana pada tahun depan diperkirakan sebesar 1,7 persen dan 1,9 persen untuk 2017 kendati masih berada di bawah target kebijakan The Fed sebesar 2,0 persen. Secara keseluruhan, proyeksi terbaru Fed ini mencatat pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (PDB) AS yang lebih lambat, pengangguran rendah, dan inflasi yang rendah. Kondisi tersebut menunjukkan bahwa kekhawatiran yang disebut stagnasi sekuler dapat “mengguncang” kalangan pembuat kebijakan. Fed juga memperkirakan tingkat pengangguran melemah dari perkiraan sebelumnya. Tingkat pengangguran bakal terpukul di 4,8 persen tahun depan dan akan berada pada tingkat itu selama tiga tahun. Selain itu, suku bunga The Fed juga diproyeksikan bergeser ke bawah, dengan tingkat dana federal jangka panjang terlihat di level 3,5 persen, dibandingkan dengan pertemuan kebijakan terakhir sebesar 3,75 persen. Pejabat Fed seperti anggota dewan Jerome Powell dan Presiden Fed Atlanta Dennis Lockhart dalam beberapa bulan terakhir telah secara terbuka mengharapkan adanya kenaikan suku bunga pada September. AHL http://ekonomi.metrotvnews.com/read/2015/09/18/432347/the-fed-pangkas-proyeksi-pertumbuhan-ekonomi-as (http://ekonomi.metrotvnews.com/read/2015/09/18/432347/the-fed-pangkasproyeksi-pertumbuhan-ekonomi-as) Sumber : METROTVNEWS.COM

reuters: Slowing growth in emerging markets and currency fluctuations in anticipation of a U.S. interest rate hike may push third-quarter revenue and earnings estimates lower this month. Wall Street expects a 3.4 percent decline in earnings for the S&P 500 .SPX (http://www.reuters.com/finance/markets/index?symbol=us%21spx) for the quarter. Estimates have already fallen for 9 out of 10 of the benchmark index’s sectors so far this year, according to Thomson Reuters data. S&P revenue is expected to fall 2.8 percent for the quarter, led by steep declines in the energy and materials sectors. As companies tend to revise guidance around the end of the quarter, estimates may become even less optimistic. “Analysts will likely be pulling in their reins going into the quarterly reports and the pre-announcement season. This could happen fairly quickly,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer of Solaris Group in Bedford Hills, New York. The dollar index .DXY, measuring the greenback against a basket of major currencies, has risen 0.8 percent so far this quarter after falling 2.9 percent last quarter. Ghriskey sees the currency’s strength hurting the competitiveness of U.S. exports against local products overseas and imports here, resulting in shrinking revenue and earnings for U.S. multinationals. In addition, demand is likely slower in many overseas markets with slowing growth in China and recessions in Brazil and Russia hurting both revenue and earnings. Jim Paulsen, chief investment officer at Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis, says that since the majority of S&P companies tend to beat earnings estimates every quarter, he will focus more on revenue than the bottom line, which can be tweaked with cost cuts and share buybacks to beat estimates. But Paulsen is not optimistic about the coming quarter. “It seems clear to me that top-line sales results will be a little disappointing again,” he said. “If you look at what’s going on in global economies, it doesn’t paint a real good picture of what top-line growth will be like. The question is: ‘How much of that is already factored in?'” U.S. telecommunications .SPLRCL, which is mostly insulated from global markets, is the only S&P sector that has shown improving estimates for both third-quarter earnings and revenue. With crude oil prices falling sharply, the energy sector .SPNY is faring the worst, with current expectations for a 62 percent earnings decline and a 33 percent revenue drop. Analysts expect the materials sector .SPLRCM to report a 11.8 percent earnings decline due to falling commodities prices and a 10.4 percent revenue drop. They see earnings for industrials .SPLRCI, which have big overseas exposure, falling 4.9 percent and revenue falling 5 percent. Many investors hope the equity market becomes less volatile after August’s sharp swings. But earnings weakness could make jittery market participants question valuations all over again. “A lot of people think the market will come back. If we see fundamentals that challenge that story, that could be a very significant part of this earnings season,” said Paulsen. (Reporting by Sinead Carew; Editing by Dan Grebler) WASHINGTON (Reuters) nikkei asian review — U.S. job growth rose less than expected in August, which could dim prospects of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike later this month, even as the unemployment rate dropped to a near 7-1/2- year low of 5.1 percent and wages accelerated. Nonfarm payrolls increased 173,000 last month as the manufacturing sector lost the most jobs since July 2013, after an upwardly revised 245,000 rise in July, the Labor Department said on Friday. It was the smallest gain in employment in five months. The report, however, may have been tarnished by a statistical fluke that in recent years has frequently led to sharp upward revisions to payroll figures for August after initial weak readings. A Reuters survey of economists had forecast nonfarm payrolls increasing by 220,000 last month, but economists warned that the model the government uses to smooth the data for seasonal fluctuations might not adequately account for the start of a new school year. They said the data could be further muddied because of a typically low response rate from employers to the government’s August payrolls survey. A Labor Department official confirmed that the first payrolls estimate in August typically was revised higher. Indicating that the slowdown in job growth was likely not reflective of the economy’s true health, payrolls data for June and July were revised to show 44,000 more jobs created than previously reported. In addition, average hourly earnings increased 8 cents and the workweek rose to 34.6 hours.

While the report may not change views that the U.S. economy remains vibrant amid volatile global financial markets and slowing Chinese growth, it could make Fed officials hesitant to push borrowing costs higher at a policy meeting on Sept. 16-17. In the wake of a recent global equities sell-off, financial markets significantly scaled back bets on a September rate hike over the past month. But Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer told CNBC last week it was too early to decide whether the stock market rout had made an increase less compelling. Still, the labor market is improving and adds to a string of upbeat data, including figures on automobile sales and housing, that has suggested the economy was moving ahead with strong momentum early in the third quarter after growing at a robust 3.7 percent annual rate in the April-through-June period. The jobless rate’s two-tenths of a percentage point drop took it to its lowest level since April 2008 and brought it into the range that most Fed officials think is consistent with a low but steady rate of inflation. A broad measure of joblessness that includes people who want to work but have given up searching and those working part-time because they cannot find full-time employment fell to 10.3 percent, the lowest since June 2008, from 10.4 percent in July. Jobs gains were spread across nearly all sectors of the economy in August. The energy and manufacturing sector, which are grappling with last year’s sharp drop in crude oil prices and a strong dollar, were the exception. Construction payrolls rose 3,000 last month on top of the 7,000 jobs added in July. Mining and logging employment fell by 10,000 jobs last month. Manufacturing payrolls fell 17,000, despite robust demand for autos. The increase in hourly earnings left them 2.2 percent above their year-ago level, still well below the 3.5 percent growth rate economists consider healthy. Some analysts think earnings are being held back by falling wages in oil field services. But a tightening labor market and decisions by several state and local governments to raise the minimum wage should eventually translate into faster earnings growth and give the Fed confidence that inflation, which collapsed with oil prices, will move closer to its 2 percent target. A number of retailers, including Walmart, Target and TJX Cos, have increased pay for hourly workers. pppppppppppppppppppppppppFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFpppppppppppppppp yahoo finance: The economy grew more than previously estimated in the second quarter on bigger gains in consumer and business spending that show the U.S. expansion got back on track. A surge in inventories also signals such strong growth will be difficult to sustain in the short run. Gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced, rose at a 3.7 percent annualized rate, exceeding all estimates of economists surveyed by Bloomberg and up from the 2.3 percent the Commerce Department reported last month, figures showed Thursday in Washington. More from Bloomberg.com: A Market-Moving Parade and an Insider Trading Appeal (http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-08-27/a-market-moving-parade-and-an-insider-tradingappeal) American households, bolstered by gains in employment, rising home prices and cheaper fuel costs, will probably continue to spur the economy in the second half of the year. At the same time, a record surge in stockpiles represents another headwind for manufacturers already contending with a rising dollar and slumping emerging markets that have hurt exports. “The economy was on firm footing coming into the second half,” Millan Mulraine, deputy head of research and strategy at TD Securities USA LLC in New York, said before the report. “The outlook going forward has more to do with global markets.” More from Bloomberg.com: Claims for Jobless Benefits in U.S. Fall to Three-Week Low (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-27/claims-for-jobless-benefits-in-u-s-fall-tothree-week-low) The report comes as Federal Reserve policy makers debate whether growth is strong enough to withstand the first increase in the benchmark interest rate since 2006. While the job market has made strides since the recession ended, inflation remains well short of the central bank’s goal. Additionally, the global plunge in stocks also could argue for a delay. Survey Results The median forecast of 79 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 3.2 percent gain in GDP, or the value of all goods and services produced. Forecasts ranged from 2.3 percent to 3.6 percent. A report Thursday from the Labor Department showed fewer Americans applied for unemployment insurance benefits last week. Jobless claims declined by 6,000 to 271,000 in the week ended Aug. 22. That’s just above a four-decade low of 255,000 reached in mid-July. More from Bloomberg.com: Oil Industry Needs Half a Trillion Dollars to Endure Price Slump (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-26/oil-industry-needs-to-find-half-a-trilliondollars-to-survive) The latest GDP estimate is the second of three for the quarter, with the third release scheduled for late September when more information becomes available. The economy grew at a 0.6 percent pace from January through March, restrained by harsh winter weather, a labor dispute at West Coast ports and a slump in energy-industry investment after oil prices dropped. Thursday’s report also offered a first look at corporate earnings. Before-tax profits rose 2.4 percent in the second quarter, after dropping 5.8 percent in the prior period. From the same time last year, profits were down 0.5 percent. Business Investment The biggest driver of the upward revision for second-quarter GDP was a bigger gain in business investment, which included stronger readings on construction, research and development and inventories. The 8.6 percent advance in spending on intellectual property was the largest since the last quarter of 2007. The surge in stockpiles is a double-edged sword because, while it boosted growth last quarter, companies will probably need to trim the amount of goods on hand from July through September, leading to cuts in production that will restrain GDP. Stockpiles climbed at a $121.1 billion annualized pace compared with an initially estimated $110 billion, and added 0.2 percentage point to economic growth. Following the first quarter’s $112.8 billion increase, it marked the biggest back-to-back gain in inventories since records began in 1947. Inventory Pullback “It does raise the risk that at some point later in the year we might see a little bit of pullback in inventories” as companies cut production, Sam Coffin, an economist at UBS Securities LLC in New York, said before the report. Household consumption, which accounts for almost 70 percent of the economy, grew at a 3.1 percent annualized rate, revised from an initial estimate of 2.9 percent and following a 1.8 percent advance from January through March. Gains in consumers’ purchasing power cooled last quarter, with disposable income adjusted for inflation rising at a 1.3 percent rate from April through June after a 3.9 percent gain in the first quarter. The saving rate decreased to 4.8 percent from 5.2 percent in the first three months of the year. Still, “the U.S. consumer is looking healthy,” Jennifer Lee, a senior economist in Toronto for BMO Capital Markets, said before the report. “Employment is strong. The housing recovery is going to continue.” More Income The report also included revisions to first-quarter personal income. Wages and salaries rose by $49.8 billion, revised up by $5.6 billion. They climbed by $47.7 billion in the second quarter. Gross domestic income, which reflects all the money earned by consumers, businesses and government agencies climbed at a 0.6 percent annualized rate in the second quarter after a 0.4 percent advance, the report showed. Government spending also was a standout last quarter, increasing at a 2.6 percent pace, the most in five years. State and local outlays increased at the fastest rate since late 2001. Fed policy makers, considering raising the benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2006, are monitoring the global stock-market turmoil. “From my perspective, at this moment, the decision to begin the normalization process at the September FOMC meeting seems less compelling to me than it was a few weeks ago,” New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley said Wednesday, cautioning it’s important not to overreact to short-term developments. He also described the economy as “performing quite well.” Dudley said one important way that market volatility could influence the U.S. economy was though the so-called wealth effect, in the event that stock market losses lead Americans to cut back their spending. Another key channel is what happens to inflation, which has been running below the Fed’s two percent target for over three years. NEW YORK – Kurs dolar Amerika Serikat (AS) menguat terhadap sebagian besar mata uang utama lainnya di tengah data ekonomi yang bervariasi. Seperti dilansir Xinhua, Selasa (18/7/2015), survei sektor manufaktur di negara bagian New York (Empire State) yang dirilis oleh Federal Reserve AS Cabang New York pada Senin menunjukkan bahwa kegiatan usaha menurun untuk manufaktur-manufaktur di New York. Menurut survei, indeks kondisi bisnis umum anjlok 19 poin menjadi minus 14,9, tingkat terendah sejak 2009 dan jauh di bawah konsensus pasar untuk kenaikan 4,75 persen. Sementara itu, kepercayaan pengembang di pasar untuk rumah keluarga tunggal yang baru dibangun pada Agustus naik satu poin ke tingkat 61 pada Indeks Pasar Perumahan (HMI) National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo. Ini adalah angka tertinggi dalam hampir satu dekade. Indeks dolar, yang mengukur greenback terhadap enam mata uang utama, naik 0,30 persen menjadi 96,813 pada akhir perdagangan. Pada akhir perdagangan di New York, euro jatuh ke 1,1080 dolar dari 1,1119 dolar pada sesi sebelumnya, dan pound Inggris turun menjadi 1,5594 dolar dari 1,5651 dolar. Dolar Australia turun menjadi 0,7379 dolar dari 0,7380 dolar. Dolar AS dibeli 124,43 yen Jepang, lebih tinggi dari 124,26 yen pada sesi sebelumnya. Dolar AS sedikit menurun menjadi 0,9769 franc Swiss dari 0,9773 franc Swiss, dan meningkat menjadi 1,3084 dolar Kanada dari 1,3076 dolar Kanada. http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/08/18/213/1197847/data-ekonomi-pengaruhi-laju-dolar-as (http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/08/18/213/1197847/data-ekonomi-pengaruhi-lajudolar-as) Sumber : OKEZONE.COM July 11, 2015 1:00 pm JST ‘Xi shock’

China’s looming threat to the world YASUHIRO GOTO, Nikkei senior staff writer TOKYO — Seven years after emerging as the world economy’s savior, China now poses a major risk to global growth. In September 2008, the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings triggered the global economic downturn, wreaking havoc across the world. The economic disaster is commonly known as the Lehman shock in Japan. In November 2008, China announced a stimulus package worth 4 trillion yuan (about $585 billion at the time) to spur domestic growth, helping the world economy recover from the Lehman crash. The fiscal stimulus package gave an additional boost to high-speed growth in the Chinese economy. In 2010, China overtook Japan to become the world’s second-largest economy, after the U.S., in terms of gross domestic product. Around the same time, China also supplanted the U.S. as the world’s largest auto market. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, China has seen its influence over the world economy, including the financial markets and the manufacturing sector, grow sharply. But the once red-hot economy is now on the cusp of structural recession and deflation. The sharp decline in share prices on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in the past few weeks might be a precursor to the breakout of an economic crisis that originates in China and then spreads around the world. There is certainly a growing risk of such an economic crisis — which could be called a “Xi shock,” after Chinese President Xi Jinping — erupting and dealing serious blows to the world economy. Excess capacity problem Excess capacity now besets various sectors of China’s economy. Most of China’s manufacturing industries — including steel, petrochemicals, cement, household appliances, electronics equipment, automakers and solar panels — have excess production capacity. The country’s service industries, including department stores, shopping centers, restaurants and banks, are also facing problems. China’s real estate industry and local governments are struggling with huge inventories of unsold residential and industrial properties together with vacant leasehold space and debt loads. Weaker domestic consumption In China, large-scale commercial retailers such as department stores have been closing in quick secession in recent months. According to the China Commerce Association for General Merchandise, the total floor space of its member department stores shrank by 16 million sq. meters in 2014. This figure is roughly 160 times larger than the floor space of Japan’s biggest department store. For example, Beijing Wangfujing Department Store (Group), shut its outlet in Zhanjiang, Guangdong Province in 2014. Although Chinese tourists continue to spend big in Japan, retail consumption on the mainland is cooling. Lower operation rate China’s steel industry, which accounts for half of steel production globally, saw its operation rate to plunge to less than 70% in 2014. The Chinese government unveiled plans to slash the country’s annual crude steel production capacity by at least 100 million tons by 2017 in an attempt to prevent major domestic steelmakers from failing due to stiff competition. The country’s once-booming auto industry is also losing steam, with year-on-year sales growth for the first five months of this year declining to 2.1%. Auto sales dropped for the second straight month in May on a year-on-year basis. Some foreign automakers are reported to be operating plants at below 70% of capacity and struggling to boost sales through increased incentives. “New normal” of slower growth China continued to pursue high economic growth for years, even after the 2008 global financial crisis, apparently because it felt that its pride as an economic power would be damaged if its high growth slowed. In the spring of 2014, the Xi administration declared a “new normal” of somewhat slower but stable growth in an apparent bid to restore health to the Chinese economy, even if it meant damaged pride. But the Chinese economy now seems to be deteriorating at a faster pace than the Xi administration expected. This comes even as China’s government has taken a series of measures to strengthen the slowing economy, including cutting interest rates and lowering the bank reserve requirement ratio as well as making fresh investments in railway and other infrastructure projects. Chinese tourists continue to spend in Japan because the yuan remains stubbornly high against the yen, not because their economy at home is healthy. Shock impacts The big question now is: How would the Xi shock actually shake the global economy? Weaker demand for natural resources would likely send commodity prices into a tailspin. Excess inventories of various products in China, including steel, petrochemicals, consumer electronics and cars, would likely start to flow into other Asian markets. Consumption in China would also cool even further due to corporate bankruptcies and employment adjustments. Companies in Japan, and elsewhere, need to become fully aware of the dangers posed by, and prepare for, the Xi shock if they want to continue to grow. CPC Political Bureau outlines its goals for 13th Five-Year Plan china daily: China will continue its focus on economic development and maintain the “medium-high growth rate” of its economy, China’s top leaders said at a meeting on Monday. The country is aiming for a development pattern of “higher quality, efficiency, equality and sustainability”, said a statement issued after the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee. High on the agenda is the discussion of the 13th Five-Year Plan of National Development (2016-20). “The five years from 2016 are a critical stage for building a moderately prosperous society in all aspects. The 13th Five-Year Development Plan will focus on realizing this goal,” the statement said. As the last year of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-15) nears its final five months, the central government is devising a development policy for the 13th plan, the first under President Xi Jinping’s leadership. The Political Bureau also announced that the 18th Communist Party of China Central Committee will hold its fifth plenary session in Beijing in October. “China is entering a new normal of economic development and facing not only great strategic opportunities but complicated and tough challenges,” the statement said. “New normal” suggests slower but more-sustainable growth. Last week the country posted a second quarter GDP figure of 7 percent, the same as the first quarter. The country will carry on the transformation of government functions, enhance the rule of law and deepen opening-up in all areas, said the statement. The CPC will strictly discipline itself and upgrade its capacity to govern, it added. Liu Jipeng, director of the Capital Research Center at the China University of Political Science and Law, said it’s strategically important for leaders to place greater emphasis on the economy after their decisive victory in the nationwide anti-corruption crackdown. He also said the country’s full-year target for economic growth is within reach thanks to new liquidity injections in infrastructure projects and initiatives for encouraging entrepreneurship and Innovation. A number of economic indicators, including electricity output, consumption and export growth, have shown improvement in June, indicating the economy stabilizing, economists said. A report from Goldman Sachs said, “The period of most aggressive policy easing is likely behind us, with some evidence of better growth in the past two months, but support will remain because strong sequential growth is needed the remainder of the year to come close to the official full-year growth target, and the government is likely concerned about the potential downside risks to growth from the equity market correction.”

GINI index (World Bank estimate) Gini index measures the extent to which the distribution of income or consumption expenditure among individuals or households within an economy deviates from a perfectly equal distribution. A Lorenz curve plots the cumulative percentages of total income received against the cumulative number of recipients, starting with the poorest individual or household. The Gini index measures the area between the Lorenz curve and a hypothetical line of absolute equality, expressed as a percentage of the maximum area under the line. Thus a Gini index of 0 represents perfect equality, while an index of 100 implies perfect inequality. World Bank, Development Research Group. Data are based on primary household survey data obtained from government statistical agencies and World Bank country departments. For more information and methodology, please see PovcalNet (http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/index.htm (http://iresearch.worldbank.org/PovcalNet/index.htm)).

(https://iaminvestor.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/gini-index-world-bank-ind_usa-2010_2012.png) Washington, July 15, 2015 (AFP) US industrial production rose for the first time in three months in June on the back of higher utility output, but manufacturing remained flat, the Federal Reserve reported Wednesday. Industrial output increased 0.3 percent in June, after declines of 0.2 percent and 0.5 percent in May and April, respectively. The June pick-up in overall industrial production was driven by utilities, such as water and electricity, which rose 1.2 percent, and mining, up 1.0 percent. Manufacturing, accounting for about three quarters of total industrial output, has been under pressure from tepid consumer spending and a stronger dollar weighing on exports. It was unchanged for a second straight month in June. “The industrial production gains in June were the result of changes in prices and unusual temperature trends, not a change in demand for US manufacturing goods,” said Briefing.com in a research note. Barclays analyst Jesse Hurwitz highlighted that with the June data, the second-quarter growth rate of total industrial output fell 1.4 percent, following a 0.1 percent gain in the first quarter, in the first quarterly contraction since the recession ended in June 2009. “We continue to view this downturn as driven by the impact of a stronger dollar and cutbacks in the energy sector from the decline in oil (prices),” Hurwitz said in a client note. “Looking ahead, we expect output for the sector to stabilize, but do not see a robust expansion as likely over the next few months.” Wednesday, July 15, 2015, 15:10

China’s Q2 economic growth steady at 7 percent By Xinhua

BEIJING — China’s economy posted 7-percent growth year on year in the second quarter of 2015, unchanged from the first quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced on Wednesday. The growth rate beat a median market forecast of 6.9 percent for the second quarter, as authorities cited “positive signs” in the economy. Second-quarter GDP grew 1.7 percent over the previous quarter, NBS data showed. The better-than-expected growth has come after the government’s bold moves in macro-control and adherence to structural reforms as the economy plateaus, NBS spokesperson Sheng Laiyun said at a press conference. “Policies rolled out by central authorities to stabilize growth, boost reforms and restructuring, improve livelihoods and prevent risks have played significant roles for the economy,” Sheng said. These measures included three cuts in both benchmark interest rates and banks’ reserve requirement ratio in the first half, and the government’s accelerated fiscal spending on infrastructure to shore up investment. With these efforts, the national economy has stayed “in the proper range” in the first half as major economic indicators gradually recovered, indicating stabilization and improvement,” Sheng said, citing steady employment and price levels. More than seven million new jobs were created in urban areas in the first half, with a target of 10 million for the year, while inflation rose only 1.3 percent during the period. In the first half of the year, GDP hit 29.7 trillion yuan (US$4.9 trillion), up 7 percent year on year, according to NBS data. During the same period, industrial output grew 6.3 percent year on year. Sheng added that the annual industrial output growth has accelerated since April while fixed asset investment also rebounded in the past two months, reversing a previous slowdown. “We think economic growth in the latter half of the year will most likely outperform that in the first half,” the spokesperson said, forecasting that government pro-growth policies in the first half will have more of an effect later this year. RETAIL SALES UP Retail sales grew 10.4 percent year on year to 14.16 trillion yuan (US$2.32 trillion) in the first half, the NBS said. The growth was down 0.2 percentage point from the rate seen in the first quarter. In June alone, retail sales went up 10.6 percent, accelerating 0.5 percentage point from May. Online retail sales continued to be a bright spot, surging 39.1 percent year on year to 1.65 trillion yuan. To steer the economy onto a more sustainable track, the government has been trying to drive domestic consumption and move away from an overreliance on investment and exports. Consumption contributed 51.2 percent to GDP growth last year, three percentage points more than the previous year. Fixed-asset investment grew 11.4 percent year on year to 23.71 trillion yuan (US$3.88 trillion) in the first half, official data showed. In the first half, fixed-asset investment in the agricultural sector grew most rapidly, up 27.8 percent year on year, followed by 12.4 percent for the service sector and 9.3 percent for the industrial sector. The calculation does not include fixed-asset investment by farmers. It includes projects with investment of at least 5 million yuan, as well as all property development projects. China’s property investment continued to soften in the first half of this year, putting the sector, once a growth engine of the economy, under greater pressure. Real-estate investment rose 4.6 percent year on year to 4.4 trillion yuan (US$708.8 billion) in the first half. During the period, investment in residential housing climbed 2.8 percent from the same period last year. New housing construction stood at 674.8 million square meters, plunging 15.8 percent from a year earlier, with construction on new residential houses diving 17.3 percent by area. Sales of commercial housing went up 10 percent year on year to 3.4 trillion yuan. New York, July 15, 2015 (AFP) US stocks opened higher Wednesday following solid Bank of America earnings and a confirmation from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen that an interest rate hike was still seen in 2015. Five minutes into trade, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at 18,062.53, up 8.95 points (0.05 percent). The broad-based S&P 500 rose 2.08 (0.10 percent) to 2,111.03, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index gained 12.07 (0.24 percent) at 5,116.96. Bank of America jumped 2.7 percent after second-quarter earnings more than doubled to $5.3 billion on a big drop in legal costs. Yellen said the Fed still planned to raise rates in 2015 due to the improving economy, though she warned that continued turbulence from Greece and China poses risks to the US growth picture. BEIJING kontan. Bursa China kembali memerah pada transaksi perdagangan hari ini (15/7). Dengan demikian, bursa saham Negeri Panda ini sudah mengalami penurunan selama dua hari terakhir. Data Bloomberg menunjukkan, pada pukul 12.30 waktu Tokyo, Shanghai Composite Index tergerus 2,4%. Sementara indeks saham-saham China di Hong Kong turun 1%. Rupanya, pertumbuhan ekonomi China di kuartal II yang melampaui ekpekstasi pelaku pasar belum bisa menjadi katalis positif bursa China. Asal tahu saja, data yang dirilis pemerintah China menunjukkan, pertumbuhan ekonomi Negeri Panda itu tumbuh 7% pada kuartal kedua dibanding periode yang sama tahun lalu. Pada kuartal pertama, pertumbuhan ekonomi China turun menjadi hanya 6,6% dan menjadi tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi terendah sejak 2009. Penyebabnya antara lain lemahnya pasar properti dan anjloknya tingkat produksi manufkatur. Namun, Beijing sudah merilis sejumlah kebijakan stimulus di tengah perlambatan tersebut. “Data PDB yang lebih baik dari konsensus merefleksikan kenaikan yang tidak stabil pada aktivitas sektor finansial yang hanya akan berlangsung dalam jangka pendek,” tulis Julian EvansPritchard, ekonom China Capital Economics di Singapura. Editor: Barratut Taqiyyah SUMBER: BLOOMBERG (http://www.bloomberg.com/) Beijing, July 15, 2015 (AFP) China’s economy expanded 7.0 percent year-on-year in the second quarter, official data showed Wednesday, as a slowdown in investment and trade weighed on growth in the world’s second-largest economy. The figure announced by the National Bureau of Statistics matched the 7.0 percent expansion in the first three months of this year, and exceeded the median forecast of 6.9 percent in an AFP survey of 14 economists. marketwatch: Investment bubbles always look so obvious in hindsight. But when you’re in the middle of one, it’s hard to fight the crowd, even if that little voice in your head tells you to run for the hills.

Why? Bubbles produce compelling narratives that give people reasons to believe. The Internet is changing everything. Housing prices never go down. Tulips are the most precious commodity on God’s green Earth, etc. Now the same thing is happening again in China, a market that has had one huge bubble burst only recently. The Shanghai Composite index briefly topped 6,000 in October 2007 only to plummet to just above 1,700, a sickening 70% plunge in only 12 months. But a mere seven years later, Shanghai is above 5,000 again, and the bulls say more gains lie ahead, even though China’s economy is slowing dramatically and some valuations already are stratospheric. They’re counting on China’s central bank to keep cutting rates. It already has reduced them three times in the past six months (http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-central-bank-cutsbenchmark-interest-rate-1431251731). Sound familiar? Also, the Chinese government has eased trading restrictions on foreign investors. On Tuesday, index provider MSCI said it “expects to include China A shares in its global benchmarks (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-stocks-will-have-to-wait-to-join-big-msci-index-2015-06-09)” once it works out some issues with Chinese regulators. A flood of institutional money would presumably follow. Indeed, mutual fund company Vanguard said last week it would gradually increase the number of mainland China-traded A shares in its Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund VEIEX, +1.11% (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/veiex) and ETF VWO, -0.41% (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/vwo) This macro “story” has powered Shanghai 150% higher in the past 12 months. Shenzhen and other mainland markets with riskier, more speculative stocks have nearly tripled. With the animal spirits unleashed, average Chinese investors are piling in. In a reverse of what happened in the U.S. in the 2000s, Chinese investors fleeing a busted housing market have thrown their money into stocks. Talk about going from the wok to the fire! Consider these worrisome signs: • China’s GDP growth slowed to 7% in the first quarter, the slowest since the Great Recession, and that figure may be overstated (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/3/3c6337b8-0b79-11e5-893700144feabdc0.html#axzz3cZdteD6T) by 1 to 2 percentage points, according to Capital Economics. • Analysts project earnings growth of companies listed on Shanghai and Shenzhen will be 7% in 2015, the lowest in three years (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/22/china-resultsoutlook-idUSL4N0XA36120150422), Reuters reported. The biggest culprits: banks grappling with a surfeit of bad loans • ChiNext, an exchange focused on startups, is trading at 140 times last year’s earnings, “in the same league as Nasdaq (http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21652326-long-termconsequences-chinas-coming-stockmarket-correction-are-ones-fear-flying)… at the height of the dotcom frenzy,” The Economist wrote. • According to one estimate, nearly 85% of China-listed companies are trading at higher multiples today than they did at the previous top in 2007. • Margin debt is skyrocketing, up more than fivefold in a year to around 2 trillion yuan (about $320 billion), an “unprecedented” 8.9% of the market capitalization of the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges. “This could already be the highest level of margins (http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/05/18/2129638/does-china-already-have-the-highest-level-of-margins-vs-free-float-inmarket-history/) vs. free float in market history,” wrote Macquarie, and perhaps the fastest increase in margin debt we’ve ever seen. • From January 2014 through mid-May, 225 IPOs came to market (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-16/inside-chinas-insane-ipo-market-full-frontal) on China’s A-share markets, with a mean price appreciation of 418% and trailing-12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 92, according to Morgan Stanley. • In the four weeks after the government allowed investors to have more than one trading account, individuals opened 12.8 million new accounts. Chinese retail investors generate 90% of all trades (http://online.barrons.com/articles/shanghais-stock-market-has-room-to-run-1428112739), reports Barron’s, higher than the historical average of 80%. Unfortunately, Chinese investors don’t seem to have learned from their mistakes in the last bubble, maybe because they’re not the same people. And the newbies are hardly sophisticated investors: The Economist cited a study that said more than two-thirds of them left school before the age of 15. Meanwhile, the so-called “smart money” is cashing in its chips: Both Morgan Stanley and BNP Paribas recently turned bearish on Chinese stocks. Jonathan Garner, Morgan Stanley’s chief Asia and emerging markets strategist, downgraded China stocks (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-06/bnp-pares-china-stocksseeing-similarities-with-2007-boom-bust) for the first time in more than seven years, citing “the weakest corporate profits since 2009.” “We’d like to recommend taking some profits,” he told Bloomberg. I’d put it even more strongly. Back in October 2007, I called China’s stock bubble the Mother of All Manias (http://www.moneyshow.com/articles.asp?aid=EDITOR-4553) and wrote: “… Some day, as sure as the sun rises in the East every morning, this market will come crashing down around our ears. “… Too many novices are engaging in what looks much more like gambling and speculation than long-term investing … “Trust me, this can’t last — it never has. The only question is when it will end.” I stand by those words today. If you’ve had the dumb luck — and don’t kid yourself that it’s anything else — to have made money in the latest China stock mania, I have five words of advice: Get. The. Hell. Out. Now. Howard R. Gold is a MarketWatch columnist and founder and editor of GoldenEgg Investing (http://goldenegginvesting.com/), which offers free market commentary and simple, low-cost, low-risk retirement investing plans. Follow him on Twitter @howardrgold. Beijing, June 11, 2015 (AFP) China’s industrial production, which measures output at factories, workshops and mines in the world’s second-largest economy, rose 6.1 percent year-on-year in May, the government said Thursday. Retail sales, a key indicator of consumer spending, increased 10.1 percent in the same month, the National Bureau of Statistics said. And fixed asset investment, a measure of government spending on infrastructure, expanded 11.4 percent on-year in the January-May period, the NBS said. The industrial output figure came in at a three-month high and was marginally above the 6.0 percent median forecast in a poll by Bloomberg News. The retail sales result matched the median forecast of 10.1 percent. The data came as China’s economy has continued to slow in 2015 after growing at its weakest pace — 7.4 percent — in nearly a quarter century last year. In the first three months of this year gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 7.0 percent in January-March, the worst quarterly result in six years. China’s authorities are trying to engineer a controlled slowdown as they seek to transform the country’s growth model to one whereby consumer spending becomes the key driver as opposed to heavy infrastructure investment. But they fear too fast a deceleration and have carried out stimulatory measures including interest rate cuts to help ensure the slowdown doesn’t get out of hand. Beijing – Tingkat paritas tengah nilai tukar mata uang Tiongkok renminbi atau yuan, menguat 23 basis poin menjadi 6,1150 terhadap dolar AS pada Kamis (11/6/2015), menurut Sistem Perdagangan Valuta Asing Tiongkok. Di pasar spot valuta asing Tiongkok, yuan diperbolehkan untuk naik atau turun sebesar dua persen dari tingkat paritas tengahnya setiap hari perdagangan. Tingkat paritas tengah yuan terhadap dolar AS didasarkan pada rata-rata tertimbang dari harga yang ditawarkan oleh pelaku pasar sebelum pembukaan pasar antar bank setiap hari kerja. http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2212662/yuan-menguat-jadi-61150-terhadap-dolar-as (http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2212662/yuan-menguat-jadi-61150-terhadap-dolar-as) Sumber : INILAH.COM Beijing- Tingkat paritas tengah nilai tukar mata uang Tiongkok renminbi atau yuan, menguat enam basis poin menjadi 6,1173 terhadap dolar AS pada Rabu (10/6/2015), menurut Sistem Perdagangan Valuta Asing Tiongkok. Di pasar spot valuta asing Tiongkok, yuan diperbolehkan untuk naik atau turun sebesar dua persen dari tingkat paritas tengahnya setiap hari perdagangan. Tingkat paritas tengah yuan terhadap dolar AS didasarkan pada rata-rata tertimbang dari harga yang ditawarkan oleh pelaku pasar sebelum pembukaan pasar antar bank setiap hari kerja. http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2212266/yuan-naik-jadi-61173-terhadap-dolar-as (http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2212266/yuan-naik-jadi-61173-terhadap-dolar-as) Sumber : INILAH.COM Editor’s Note: After GDP growth decelerated to a six-year low of 7 percent in the first quarter, the performance of the economy in the second quarter will be crucial in determining whether the annual target of “about 7 percent” can be achieved. Despite persistent downside pressure, positive signals have emerged this year indicating progress in restructuring and reform. China Daily invited a group of economists to provide insight into the country’s economy.

For the past four years we have been talking about how momentum loss in the Chinese economy is inevitable and will continue. This year the economy has continued on the trend, with growth slipping below 7 percent for the year. Put plainly, the structural headwinds are just too big: Industrial performance and fixed-asset investment are still too highly correlated to policy and credit, the corporate sector is still deeply indebted, exports appear to be in for another average year, and consumption is too small a share of the economy to drive headline growth and faces its own challenges. Looking at the latest data, it is clear that the first five months of the year were underwhelming. Luckily, in terms of market sentiment, we do think that anything above 6.6 percent year-on-year growth over the next few quarters (and of course the data point around that) is broadly priced in by markets. However, below this would be a big negative for emerging markets, like South Africa, and commodity prices. The problem is that getting the “new normal” to consolidate at this rate of expansion will need some material policy support, which Beijing is doing. It is no surprise that the policy environment in China has shifted more decisively toward monetary easing and growth support over the past several weeks. We expect the effect of monetary, fiscal and administrative easing, coupled with favorable base effects, suggests that activity will probably bottom in the second quarter, and growth will stabilize in the second half of this year. We expect greater moves to come. For monetary policy, real rates are still elevated and weak loan demand is keeping a lid on credit creation. That means that much lower interest rates will be required to coax private businesses to revamp their forward-looking capital expenditures. So far, new lending has not been matched by commensurate new deposit growth because funds are moving out of China or going into stocks. However, if done recklessly, the supportive measures will add to the existing problems, and contradict the longer-term reform agenda embodied in the administration’s November 2013 Plenum. We have not yet really seen the creative destruction necessary for altering incentives in the economy, and reshaping how land, labor and capital is allocated across the economy. Looking at the broader reform agenda, we still have to start the painful process of corporate deleveraging. And now, a particular concern is the fact that nominal GDP growth appears to have dropped below the average lending rate, meaning that servicing existing debt will become more difficult. The problem is that Beijing is facing a trade-off between the near-term cyclical trend and the longer-term objectives of reform and restructuring. China’s attempt to deal with local government finances is a case in point. Yes, converting the debt into longer-dated and cheaper debt will reduce debt-servicing costs for local authorities. However, when banks decide to buy bonds for any other reason other than the fair price of risk, then the plan goes against the idea of getting banks to embrace the market, and surely does nothing to eliminate moral hazard. We are particularly worried that consumption growth presents a large (and so far ignored) downside risk for the Chinese economy. In April, retail sales growth slowed from 10.2 percent year-on-year in March to 10 percent year-on-year. Retail sales growth expanded by an average of 12 percent year-on-year in 2014, from 13.3 percent year-on-year in 2013. Take-home pay has been compressed over the past six months as non-wage compensation has proven ripe for cost rationalization. Then there is the anti-corruption drive, which could mean getting tougher on expense claims. This source of income is material (especially in the public sector). It is not just about gifts or bribes; it also includes institutionalized subsidies and benefits. And, this has been reduced a lot. If gray income is as much as $1 trillion (around one-fifth of total urban income) then even a 30 percent reduction adds slack in the economy and increases deflationary risks. On that note, the Consumer Price Index came in at 1.5 percent year-on-year in April, up from 1.4 percent in March, buoyed by an uptick in food prices, which was well below the 2.5 percent target. China intends to ensure that the registered urban unemployment rate stays below 4.6 percent in 2015. For now, real wages are being used as the first line of defense against unemployment, presenting a big risk for spending, but news flow suggests that layoffs are starting in distressed sectors. The biggest headache is trying to keep investment growth anywhere near previous norms. Last year, total fixed-asset investment was $8 trillion. So of course, even growing this by another 13 percent in 2015 is proving to be a challenge. The slowdown in investment spending from over 20 percent per annum in recent years is a healthy and necessary adjustment, and we expect that it has quite a bit further to go, but it makes it difficult for the broader economy to become unstuck. Manufacturers, which accounted for one-third of total investment last year, are still battling with serious overcapacity, excess debt and lackluster demand. This is why we have seen 37 months of deflation at the factory gate. The producers simply do not have any pricing power and margins are evaporating. More time is needed to work through inventories, induce consolidation and begin deleveraging. Then, given its size and linkages to the rest of the economy, the reality is the momentum loss in investment (and the economy) cannot stop until the housing market turns around. The problem is that China’s property sector is significantly overinvested, especially in third-and fourth-tier cities, which have accounted for the majority of new housing in recent years. To be fair, in terms of price, this soft underbelly of China’s economy is firming up, at least in the first-and second-tier cities. The impact of a host of support measures since late 2014 has helped. Indeed, we expect home sales to see year-on-year growth in the second half of the year. However, the big impact for the overall economy is from property investment, where we simply do not expect a material rebound.

China’s economy is likely to bottom out in the second quarter. With policies that support steady growth put in place, pressures on the economy will be eased during the quarter. Positive elements include fast-growing infrastructure investment, e-commerce and new export momentum. Exports to countries along the New Silk Road increased by 10 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, emerging as a new highlight for exports. We expect economic growth could hover around 7 percent in the second quarter, or even reach 7.1 percent to 7.2 percent. The government has adopted stronger measures to support steady growth so far during the second quarter. These policies will gradually take effect. Promotion of public-private partnership projects will be beneficial for stabilizing investment and providing more opportunities for private investors. We think that if these measures had been launched several months ago, the situation would have been much better. China’s economic restructuring has accelerated in recent years. The contribution of China’s service industry surpassed 50 percent last year, showing that China has entered an era dominated by the service industry. Regarding the secondary industry, the growth of the hightechnology sector and equipment manufacturing has outpaced the traditional industries. We anticipate policies that promote opening-up will remain the direction for China’s reforms. China saw slower growth of retail sales in April, but that does not mean deflation will occur in the consumption sector. But related social reforms should be accelerated, or consumption will decline further, which may have a negative impact on the economy in the medium to longer term. Economic restructuring and rapid growth of the service industry will alleviate the mounting pressure in the labor market. Some new college graduates may find it tough to get a job in the short term, but the supply of such workers is not adequate to meet demand in the long run. The government could adopt multiple measures to boost investment. There is great potential for expanding investment in areas such as education and medical treatment. The government needs to further relax barriers to market entry. To expand consumption, the government should lift restrictions on home purchases and bank loans. Market-oriented reform should be accelerated to let new investment be guided by the market. We have trimmed our 2015 GDP forecast to 7.1 percent from 7.3 percent. While the first quarter of 2015 is likely the trough in terms of sequential growth, we now forecast a softer rebound in the second quarter, with year-on-year growth slipping below policymakers’ comfort level during the quarter, prompting more aggressive easing. We expect headline GDP to bottom out in the third quarter. Five months into 2015, economic activity remains sluggish. Much of the weakness has been anticipated as it stems from a prolonged industrial and manufacturing slowdown. One factor that does stand out, however, is external demand softness. After a volatile performance due to Lunar New Year distortions, export growth in April fell by 6 percent, while imports contracted 16 percent. Yearto-date, exports grew by only 2 percent year-on-year. Economic activity remains sluggish with little sign of a pickup. The risks to economic activity are still on the downside. Indeed, as the HSBC China Monetary Conditions Indicator showed further tightening in April, we believe further monetary easing is still urgently needed. Cumulative policy easing to date has not been sufficient and timely enough to counter the drag from the sharp appreciation of the yuan on a real effective exchange rate basis, and therefore could not lift the economy out of disinflation. To do so, more aggressive policy moves are needed, and ideally aggressive enough to reverse the expectations of financial intermediaries, who are increasingly becoming risk-averse. We are fore-casting further cuts in the required reserve ratio and interest rates. The next move will likely be a 50 basis point RRR cut in the coming weeks. The restructuring process is ongoing. The services sector is now more than 50 percent of China’s nominal GDP. But we are much less complacent. The first point to clarify is that growth in the services sector is also slowing; it is merely slowing at a lesser pace (than other sectors). Growth of the services sector slowed from 11.2 percent in the fourth quarter of last year to 9.6 percent in the first quarter of 2015. This is indeed much better than the primary and secondary sectors. In real terms, the services sector is still growing at a steadier pace. March retail sales growth slowed to 10.2 percent year-on-year, taking the reading to 10.6 percent in the first quarter. The slowdown was largely due to the drag from auto sales growth. We should be mindful of the deflation in the manufacturing sector, which may further restrain industrial investment and reduce employees’ income. At its 12th annual meeting, the National People’s Congress announced the goal of creating 10 million urban jobs in 2015. However, the labor market will likely face headwinds from slowing growth. The ratio of jobs available to job seekers dropped to 1.12 in the first quarter from 1.15 in the previous quarter, indicating weakness in the market. As pressures on growth and inflation intensify, infrastructure investment will become more important. Fiscal reforms since 2014 have shut down a significant funding channel for infrastructure investment at the local government level, the local government financing vehicles. This will be replaced by a mixture of policy bank lending, a higher municipal bond issuance quota and more use of public-private partnerships.

Early signs on growth in the second quarter point to stabilization, albeit at a low level. Business surveys like the National Bureau of Statistics’ Purchasing Managers Index edged up in May and property sales show some signs of bottoming out. If that trend is sustained, the economy should be within striking distance of the government’s 7 percent target. The government has a tough job. On the one hand, it wants to prevent a further slide in growth. On the other hand, it does not want an overblown stimulus, which makes structural problems harder to deal with. This stimulus is a scalpel rather than a sledgehammer. The surgical approach is cleaner, but the results take longer to show. What is interesting about China right now is that the emergence of a new economy and the contraction of the old economy are happening at the same time. If you look at innovative firms that target the emerging middle-class consumer, there is a positive story. If you look at old industrial firms, the signs of struggle with overcapacity and debt are evident. We do not see much pressure on labor markets right now. The data show demand for workers is outstripping demand for jobs, which means there is no significant unemployment. That is one of the reasons the government has been able to adopt a surgical approach to its stimulus. Lots of analysts underestimate the amount of policy space China has to stave off a slowdown. Interest rates remain relatively high, so there is scope for more conventional monetary easing. In the real estate sector, down payments are one requirement that could be relaxed if the government wants to bolster demand. China’s economy found a marginally firmer footing in April thanks to recent policy measures, as property sales turned positive and industrial production growth edged up. However, property construction and investment remained anemic, as fixed-asset investment growth slipped to a new decade-low. We expect more policy support to come, backed by an increasingly supportive Politburo policy tone. This should help take GDP growth back up to 7.1 percent year-on-year in the second quarter, but any revival will be hard to sustain as the unfolding property downturn intensifies into year-end. As such, we maintain our 2015 GDP growth forecast of 6.8 percent. Policy support continued to escalate. The People’s Bank of China cut benchmark interest rates by another 25 basis points on May 10, guiding the subsequent visible decline in money market rates. As real rates fall further in the coming months, it should relieve the corporate debt servicing burden and cash flow issues. The Ministry of Finance, the PBOC and the China Banking Regulatory Commission also jointly confirmed that direct debt placement between local governments and creditors will be allowed, as will the use of swapped local government debt as collateral by banks in repo and other liquidity operations with the PBOC. We think these measures should help mitigate against liquidity/yield distortions caused by a potentially huge release of new local government bonds to the bond market, and motivate banks to swap out old loans for lower-yielding and longer-duration local government bonds. We expect more policy support to come. Further policy support is still needed to stabilize China’s growth momentum and arrest the passive tightening of monetary conditions. Policy support will deliver a modest but temporary boost to growth in the second and third quarters. China’s rebalancing has already started, albeit at a very incremental pace. On the external account, net exports no longer contribute that much to China’s growth and the current account surplus has narrowed significantly from 10 percent of GDP in 2007 to only 2.1 percent in 2014. On the domestic front, consumption has contributed more to GDP growth than investment since 2010, and the service sector’s share of the economy has risen for the past four years. This rebalancing is due partly to China’s investment slowdown and weakening global demand, and partly to fundamental structural reform. The ongoing property downturn has clearly dragged down property and industrial investment the past couple of years, whereas household income and consumption have stayed more resilient. However, China has also reduced its previous implicit subsidies in energy and utility prices; increased dividend payments by State-owned enterprises to the government; expanded pension and healthcare insurance coverage; carried out value-added-tax reform and cut taxes and fees for small businesses; and lowered entry barriers facing smaller firms and to the financial, education, culture, healthcare, tourism and other service sectors. Going forward, we see policy efforts continuing to support and extend all such trends. Despite recent headwinds from a cut in public consumption and the sharp industrial and property sector downturns, consumption remains resilient. In the first quarter, retail sales rose by more than 10 percent year-on-year on both a real and nominal basis. Real consumption expenditure growth per capita held up at 7.3 percent year-on-year, as national average real disposable income growth held steady at around 8 percent. The resilience of China’s labor market thus far has been a key contributor to this picture. Official statistics showed the surveyed unemployment rate still hovering around 5 to 5.1 percent, and 3.2 million new urban jobs were created in the first quarter, on track to meet this year’s 10 million target. Data from urban labor centers suggest that there were more job postings than job seekers in the first quarter. As the property downturn unfolds through 2015, job market pressures will inevitably rise, but we nonetheless expect job losses to be less severe in scale than in 2008-2009. We think there is still plenty of room left for additional infrastructure investment in China. Many may say China has invested too much in infrastructure after the past decade’s massive construction and that its current infrastructure seems better than in most other emerging countries and even some developed economies. However, China’s total capital stock per capita is still far below that of many developed economies, at only one-seventh of the United States, one-13th of Japan and one-quarter of South Korea in 2013. The central government is exploring multiple alternative ways for infrastructure investment. Central to this experiment is the so-called private-public partnership program, through which infrastructure projects with longer-term stable cash flows or reasonable commercial returns are expected to be carried out with the help of corporate balance sheets. To facilitate this process, the government is accelerating utility price and service sector reforms. In addition, cross-regional projects such as high-speed railway, national grid, giant hydraulic and hydropower projects will be funded by the central government and some central government SOEs. The government also plans to increase the role of policy banks in financing and to allow a longer transition period for local government financing vehicles to continue borrowing from their normal channels. Property policies have been eased over the past year but there is room to do more. We think the government can further cut down payment requirements, from 30 percent to 20 percent for all first mortgages, and accelerate hukou reforms in lower-tier cities later this year, if property activity weakens again. The additional rate cut we expect and further relaxation of developers’ fund-raising access should also help. Existing and upcoming property policy easing will unlikely re-inflate the property bubble, and at best only mitigate and stabilize the downturn.

Based on the April data and the Purchasing Managers Index for May, it seems that the economy in the second quarter will be weaker than in the first three months. Macro indicators in the first four months were mostly short of expectations, indicating downside risks to our growth forecast of 6.7 percent year-on-year in the second quarter. The May PMI did not show any turning point. The nonmanufacturing business activity index continued to drift downward, which may indicate the service sector cannot stand alone as the manufacturing sector weakens. Reforms to further deregulate the service sector and promote urbanization are necessary to revive the nonmanufacturing sectors. Monetary policy easing will have to be accompanied by meaningful capacity cuts in the manufacturing sector to stem a growth slowdown. The Chinese economy is facing headwinds of persistently high cost of capital, overcapacity in most of the manufacturing sectors and a property down-cycle. The government has committed to lower the cost of capital through broad-based policy easing and unconventional liquidity management of policy banks and debt swap. The economy may receive support two to three quarters after monetary easing alongside the property market stabilization possible around the fourth quarter this year. We noticed a few reforms have made progress recently. Urbanization: Chinese authorities launched the urbanization pilot before the Lunar New Year. Urbanization should trigger relocation of consumption and investment. Assuming that the New Urbanization Plan is fulfilled by 2020, we expect: 1) Household consumption spending to increase around 10 percent or more; 2) Additional urbanization-related investment/spending may be 2.6 trillion yuan ($423.5 billion) or more each year; 3) Farmers may shift one-third to one-half of their investment in housing from rural to urban areas. Interest-rate liberalization: In early May, the deposit rate ceiling was widened from the previous 130 percent from the base to 150 percent. The central bank seems to be conveying a key message that this rate cut will also pave the way for interest rate liberalization in 2015. Capital account liberalization: Regulators agreed on mutual recognition of funds between the mainland and Hong Kong effective from July 1. We view this as a significant capital market opening-up initiative, which could accelerate the integration of the A-and H-share markets. The Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect should gradually ease under-ownership by foreign investors in China’s capital market. As a result, offshore investors will have access to China’s growth opportunities, renminbi exposure, and more importantly, the reform premium. The Chinese leaders have initiated two key projects to mitigate concerns of geopolitics and domestic excess capacity: the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the Belt and Road Initiative. This is likely to lead to a gradual process of investment out of China, in our view. The overseas direct investment-led capacity exports will likely be determined by a few factors: GDP per capita, the cost of capital in the home country, the leverage ratio of potential multinational companies, an international currency and soft power. Debt: The Ministry of Finance, the PBOC and the China Banking Regulatory Commission announced that local bonds can be used as collateral for borrowing. Meanwhile, provincial governments can issue bonds through directional distribution, which allows local governments and debtors to swap loans and other type of debts for bonds directly. The new rules were introduced to incentivize debt swaps through credit enhancement and cheap credit. The authorities want to see the first round of debt swaps by the end of August. This policy setting avoids imminent local defaults with guaranteed low-cost refinancing. State-owned enterprises: The government is taking steps to consolidate the central SOEs. Meanwhile, Guangzhou’s SOE reform program proposed that mixed-ownership enterprises will become the main form of municipal enterprises. We expect an SOE reform grand plan from the central government to be the focal point in the coming quarter or so. The nonmanufacturing PMI employment sub-index slid to the lowest level in May (47.6) since the data series began. While the job market is still diverging between unskilled and skilled labor, the risk is that, if the economy stays weak, the rising new economy including services may not be able to fully offset the job loss in traditional sectors, challenging the government’s growth bottom line. We expect the government to scale up policy easing to defend the growth bottom line. The PBOC balance sheet may expand to curtail the cost of capital and accommodate interest rate liberalization and local debt swaps. Meanwhile, the government will resolve funding constraints for infrastructure projects, foster new consumption drivers, stabilize the property sector and cut overcapacity in an orderly manner.

China May inflation edges down to 1.2%, producer prices slide (Xinhua/chinadaily.com.cn) Updated: 2015-06-09 10:28

BEIJING — China’s consumer price index (CPI), a main gauge of inflation, grew 1.2 percent year on year in May, the National Bureau of Statistics announced on Tuesday. The reading fell from 1.5 percent posted in April. On a monthly basis, consumer prices in May slipped 0.2 percent, unchanged from the 0.2-percent drop recorded in April. Falling prices of vegetables, fruits and eggs due to seasonal factors were the main cause of the CPI decline last month, NBS statistician Yu Qiumei said. May PPI down 4.6% The country’s producer prices slid 4.6 percent year on year in May, the 39th consecutive month of declines, adding to disinflationary pressure, official data showed on Tuesday. The drop in the producer price index (PPI), a measure of costs for goods at the factory gate, stayed the same with that in April, also the index’s second largest drop since its downward trend started in March 2012, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). On a monthly basis, the PPI contracted 0.1 percent in May, narrowing from a 0.3 percent decline in April, which was mainly caused by rising petroleum processing costs. Deflationary pressure remains The drop of the PPI reading is steeper than expected, which shows difficulty at company level despite slight pickup of commodity prices, said Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank. “We still need to remain cautious on the deflationary pressure,” said Lu. He expects the CPI to grow 0.8 percent in June. China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.4 percent in 2014, the weakest annual expansion in 24 years. GDP growth in the first quarter of the year slowed to 7 percent. The country targets an annual economic growth rate of around 7 percent for the year and aims to keep inflation at around 3 percent. HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Wednesday could be huge for Chinese stocks. On that day, about four hours before Shanghai opens for trade, MSCI Inc. MSCI, -0.68% (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/msci?mod=MW_story_quote) will announce whether it will welcome China’s top yuan-denominated stocks into its extremely influential Emerging Markets Index 891800, -0.51% (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/891800? countrycode=xx&mod=MW_story_quote) tracked by a mountain of roughly $1.7 trillion in assets worldwide. Such a move would be expected to ignite a significant rally in Shanghai blue chips, and a recent Wall Street Journal report (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-shares-may-finally-gettheir-due-2015-06-03-231034446) cited major funds such as those of Vanguard Group Inc. planning to purchase Chinese equities ahead of the MSCI decision, which is due to be revealed Tuesday at about 5:30 p.m. U.S. Eastern time (Wednesday 5:30 a.m. in Shanghai) on the financial company’s website. Hong Kong-listed shares of Chinese companies — known as “H-shares” — are already a sizeable presence in the MSCI EM Index. Rival FTSE Group (owned by the London Stock Exchange LSE, -1.34% (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/lse?countrycode=uk&mod=MW_story_quote) LDNXF, +0.00% (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/ldnxf? mod=MW_story_quote) ) recently added the mainland-listed stocks — known as “A-shares” — into transitional global indexes, and may add them to its benchmark EM index this September, according to HSBC. The possible MSCI move has been making big headlines in China’s news media, but that said, many analysts are not so sure the index compiler will take the plunge into Chinese equities this week, suggesting it will wait a little longer for the country’s financial reforms to solidify further. Now or later? Among analysts closely following Chinese stocks, many think inclusion in the MSCI EM Index will happen, even if not right away. Last June, some investors had pushed back against the addition of A-shares in the benchmark, arguing that China still restricted market access. Since then, however, Chinese markets have opened further to the world, including through the launch of the milestone Hong Kong-Shanghai Stock Connect scheme (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-to-play-the-historicopening-of-chinas-stock-market-2014-11-13) — which allows foreign retail investors to directly buy mainland Chinese equities for the first time — and through the mutual recognition of Hong Kong funds and their mainland peers. But despite such liberalizations, Hong Kong-based China Forward Capital Group’s founder and chief investment officer, Qi Wang, thinks MSCI will likely wait a little longer before including the A-shares. “There could be more dramatic policy changes in the second half of 2015, beyond the already announced mutual recognition” of funds, he told MarketWatch late last week. “This may prompt MSCI to delay the decision to later this year in order to take a more comprehensive view.” Ilya Feygin, managing director at New York-based broker WallachBeth Capital, sees “a greater than 80% chance” that China’s A-shares will join the MSCI indices by its June 2016 index review at the latest, though Wednesday’s announcement might not be one of immediate inclusion of Chinese stocks. “The upcoming announcement June 9th will probably simply make some forward-looking statement to that effect,” he said in emailed comments for this report.

wsj: The International Monetary Fund Thursday slashed its forecasts for U.S. economic growth, calling for the Federal Reserve to hold off its first rate increase in nearly a decade until 2016. U.S. worker productivity fell in the opening months of 2015, underscoring an economic soft patch marked by weak business investment and tepid wage gains.

Healthy, but not toned

the economist

AMERICA’S economy has been looking frail. According to recently revised estimates, in the first quarter of 2015 GDP shrank by 0.7%, at an annualised rate. Yesterday the International Monetary Fund advised the Federal Reserve not to raise interest rates until next year. But the prognosis is not all bad. For signs of strength, look at the labour market. Today the Bureau of Labour Statistics reported that about 280,000 non-farm jobs were created in May; a healthy figure. There are now 11m more jobs than when the recession finished in mid-2009; the unemployment rate is 5.4%, more than half a percentage point below the average over the past two decades. One black spot, though, is wages. In the past few months the rate of pay increases has fallen (see chart). That suggests that the American labour market still has lots of slack. Washington, June 3, 2015 (AFP) The US economy cranked back into middle gear during April and May after stalling in the first quarter of the year, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book regional survey said Wednesday. Consumer spending played a big part in the rebound, it said, as did construction and tourism. Respondents to the regional survey, which helps shape Fed policy decisions, “were generally optimistic” in their outlook, expecting growth to continue or pick up. But the report also showed the recovery from the January-to-March downturn was spotty from region to region, suggesting some residual weakness after the winter slump. The report characterized overall growth as “modest” to “moderate”, which is how the Fed generally described the economy throughout 2014. Most of the Fed’s 12 districts reported gains in consumer spending, including on cars and homes; in construction; and in travel and tourism. Some of that was attributed to the boost to household incomes from lower gasoline prices after the oil price crash. The comments on consumers were reassuring, after a series of reports showing that Americans were largely saving any new money they were taking in, rather than spending it. But cheap oil also took a toll on the hubs of the petroleum industry, where drillers and service companies have been laid off thousands. That contributed to sluggish growth in two key oil regions: the Fed’s Dallas, Texas district, and the Kansas City district just to the north, which includes Oklahoma. The Beige Book survey, which covered roughly six weeks to late May, showed the economy coming back after it contracted 0.7 percent in the first three months of the year, due to a combination of the effects of harsh winter weather in some areas and the grinding port slowdown on the west coast.

But the survey suggests the spring rebound was not as strong as hoped. The huge Atlanta Fed district, covering much of the southeast, reported the pace of growth generally unchanged after the winter, with retail sales growth soft. bloomberg: U.S. central bankers are still likely to start raising interest rates this year if the labor market improves further, though the jobs outlook has become more uncertain, said William C. Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. “If the labor market continues to improve and inflation expectations remain well-anchored, then I would expect — in the absence of some dark cloud gathering over the growth outlook — to support a decision to begin normalizing monetary policy later this year,” Dudley, who has a permanent vote on the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, said in remarks prepared for a speech Friday in Minneapolis. At the same time, he cautioned that “there remains some uncertainty about whether growth will be strong enough to lead to further improvement in the labor market.” He also stressed that interest rates are likely to rise gradually after liftoff. Dudley spoke hours after the Labor Department reported that employers added more jobs to payrolls than forecast. The dollar strengthened as investors increased bets that the Fed will raise rates in September. Fed Chair Janet Yellen and her colleagues are trying to determine if economic weakness at the start of the year is transitory or longer-lasting, as they consider the timing of their first rate rise since 2006. Fed officials next meet to discuss policy on June 16-17, and Yellen will hold a press conference after the gathering. Employers added 280,000 workers to non-farm payrolls in May, beating the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey, figures from the Labor Department showed Friday in Washington.

Ways to Go Dudley acknowledged the numbers in his speech, adding that “there is still some ways to go.” He said he is “becoming more confident” in the inflation outlook as oil prices have stabilized and the pace of appreciation of the dollar has slowed. That too, however, depends on how the labor market evolves, he said. And even if the labor market does continue to improve, that by itself may not be sufficient. “For example, if labor market improvement were not accompanied by a meaningful uptick in wage compensation and if inflation expectations also fell, then one likely would not be reasonably confident about inflation returning to 2 percent over the medium term,” he said.

Yellen said on May 22 that she still expects to raise rates this year if the economy meets her forecasts. Those remarks were before government data showed the economy shrank by 0.7 percent at an annual rate in the first quarter. Governors Lael Brainard and Daniel Tarullo earlier this week both questioned whether the first-quarter slump could be written off as due largely to temporary headwinds. The International Monetary Fund on Thursday cut its U.S. growth forecast for this year and urged the Fed to delay a rate increase to the first half of 2016. Manufacturing activity was at best slightly faster across the country; jobs and wage gains were also only “slight” overall. The banking and finance industry also showed mixed results: business and consumer higher in some regions, and lower in others. The strongest growth was in the Richmond, Chicago, Minneapolis and San Francisco Fed districts. The Fed survey echoed what other data reports released this week said about the economy’s modest comeback from the first quarter drop. Data out Wednesday showed a fall in the trade balance as the impact of the West Coast ports slowdown ebbs, and the ISM service sector gauge for May, while lower than the previous month, was still in solid growth territory. Markets moved more in reaction to other events. The dollar fell against the euro amid rising expectations that Greece will reach a deal with creditors to avoid a default that could rattle the eurozone. US stocks were higher generally after showing weakness for three straight sessions. Beijing, June 1, 2015 (AFP) China’s new home prices increased in May for the first time in four months, a survey showed Monday, as effects of Beijing’s loosening policies to boost the market kick in. The average price of a new home in China’s 100 major cities rose 0.5 percent month on month to 10,569 yuan ($1,696) per square metre, the China Index Academy (CIA) said in a report. Prices had been falling since February and the increase was stronger than a 0.21-percent gain in January, which came after eight straight months of declines. “Looking ahead the property market overall shows a warming trend, but some cities still see inventory pressures and the supply and demand is still tense,” the CIA said in the statement. China’s property market has been in the doldrums for more than a year as expansion in the world’s second-largest economy slows. Authorities have taken steps to support the industry as real estate investment remains a key driver for the economy, while land sales are a major source of revenue for cash-strapped local governments. The central People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has cut benchmark interest rates three times since November, and eased mortgage policies in September. In late March it lowered minimum downpayment levels on second homes nationwide, rolling back a four-year-old policy first introduced to rein in soaring prices that were making home ownership unaffordable for many and raising worries over social unrest. It also shortened the ownership period during which sellers are liable to a 20-percent capital gains tax on properties other than their main home. China’s economy grew 7.4 percent last year, the weakest rate in nearly a quarter of a century, and more recent indicators have pointed to the frailty extending into the current quarter. The PBoC has reduced the percentage of funds banks must hold in reserve twice this year, in a bid to boost lending, and analysts broadly expect policymakers to announce further easing in the coming months. On a year-on-year basis house prices fell 3.73 percent in May, compared with a decline of 4.46 percent in April, according to the CIA. The average price in China’s top 10 cities was 19,148 yuan per square metre, down 2.33 percent from a year ago, it said, slowing from a fall of 3.46 percent last month.

WASHINGTON – Laju ekonomi Amerika Serikat (AS) terkontraksi 0,7% pada Kuartal I 2015. Hal itu disampaikan oleh Departemen Perdagangan dalam perkiraan produk domestik bruto (PDB) yang direvisi, pada Jumat (29/5). Penurunan itu sebagian besar disebabkan oleh dampak pada perlambatan perdagangan di West Coast selama tiga bulan, serta rendahnya persediaan tingkat investasi swasta dari perkiraan sebelumnya. Revisi tajam dari perkiraan semula yang menyebutkan peningkatan 0,2% telah diprediksi. Pasalnya data output ekonomi dan perdagangan yang lebih rinci pada periode Januari-Maret telah terkuat dalam beberapa pekan terakhir. Disamping itu, dampak dari perselisihan buruh yang berkepanjangan dan menyebabkan perlambatan di pelabuhan pada November-Februari telah selesai diatasi. Secara keseluruhan, masalahmasalah tersebut membuat sektor perdagangan terkena dampak negatif 1,9% pada produk domestik bruto (PDB)nya.

Ekspor di kuartal itu turun 7,6% setelah tumbuh 4,5% di periode sebelumnya. Sementara impor naik 5,6% atau hanya setengah dari laju kuartal sebelumnya. Akan tetapi para analis juga mengatakan penguatan dolar mengakibatkan dampak buruk pada daya saing AS sehingga memberikan kontribusi pada kejatuhan ekspor. Penggerak pertumbuhan lainnya juga melemah, seperti pada konsumsi pribadi, investasi bisnis, dan belanja pemerintah. Namun pada sisi positifnya, belanja rumah dan peralatan bisnis meningkat di kuartal ini. Dan investasi persediaan, meskipun tidak setinggi yang diperkirakan, ikut naik dari kuartal sebelumnya. Meski lajunya naik 2,2% atau bertambah di Kuartal IV 2014, namun demikian kuartal musim dingin kedua yang tertunda dalam dua tahun semakin mendukung keraguan yang terus berkelanjutan terhadap keseluruhan kekuatan ekonomi AS. Selain itu, kendati data awal dari periode berjalan sejak April lebih baik. Namun para ekonom mencatat, berharap perusahaanperusahaan mengalami rebound. (afp/pya) Beijing – Mata uang yuan Tiongkok, yang Washington telah lama duga dimanipulasi, “tidak lagi undervalued”, Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) mengatakan pada Selasa (26/5/2015). “Penilaian kami sekarang adalah bahwa apresiasi efektif riil yang besar selama tahun lalu telah membawa nilai tukar ke tingkat yang tidak lagi undervalued,” kata IMF dalam sebuah pernyataan setelah misi konsultasi ke Tiongkok. Nilai yuan, juga dikenal sebagai renminbi, telah menjadi sumber ketegangan selama bertahun-tahun dengan mitra dagang utama Tiongkok — yang dipimpin oleh Washington — menuduh Beijing mempertahan nilai mata uang artifisial rendah untuk memberikan pengekspor Tiongkok keunggulan kompetitif yang tidak adil, yang dibantah oleh Beijing. Tiongkok mempertahankan cengkraman kuat pada nilai yuan dari kekhawatiran bahwa arus masuk dan keluar mata uang yang tak terduga bisa membahayakan ekonomi dan melemahkan kontrol keuangannya. Meskipun demikian Tiongkok masih mendorong mata uang untuk memainkan peran yang lebih besar dalam sistem keuangan dunia, seperti dimasukkan dalam keranjang yang membentuk mata uang cadangan IMF “special drawing rights” . “Kami mendesak pemerintah untuk membuat kemajuan pesat menuju fleksibilitas nilai tukar yang lebih besar, persyaratan utama untuk ekonomi besar seperti Tiongkok yang berusaha keras untuk menghargakan berbasis pasar dan mengintegrasikan dengan cepat di pasar keuangan dunia,” kata IMF. Surplus perdagangan besar Tiongkok telah terlihat mengakumulasi cadangan devisa terbesar di dunia yang mencapai 3,73 triliun dolar AS pada akhir Maret. “Posisi eksternal masih terlalu kuat menyoroti kebutuhan untuk reformasi kebijakan lainnya — yang memang bagian dari agenda pemerintah — untuk mengurangi tabungan berkelebihan dan mencapai keseimbangan eksternal yang berkelanjutan,” kata IMF. Langkah-langkah tersebut termasuk memastikan bahwa di masa depan “nilai tukar menyesuaikan dengan perubahan fundamental”, tambahnya. http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2208212/imf-yuan-tiongkok-tak-lagi-undervalued (http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2208212/imf-yuan-tiongkok-tak-lagi-undervalued) Sumber : INILAH.COM Beijing – Tingkat paritas tengah nilai tukar mata uang China renminbi atau yuan, menguat delapan basis poin menjadi 6,1131 terhadap dolar AS, Jumat (22/05/2015). Demikian menurut Sistem Perdagangan Valuta Asing China. Di pasar spot valuta asing China, yuan diperbolehkan untuk naik atau turun sebesar dua persen dari tingkat paritas tengahnya setiap hari perdagangan. Tingkat paritas tengah yuan terhadap dolar AS didasarkan pada rata-rata tertimbang dari harga yang ditawarkan oleh pelaku pasar sebelum pembukaan pasar antar bank setiap hari kerja. http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2206843/yuan-china-menguat-8-poin-terhadap-dolar-as (http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2206843/yuan-china-menguat-8-poin-terhadap-dolaras) Sumber : INILAH.COM JAKARTA. Bank sentral China People’s Bank of China (PBoC) memangkas suku bunga untuk ketiga kalinya dalam enam bulan terakhir, untuk merangsang pertumbuhan ekonomi dan mengurangi beban utang perusahaan juga pemerintah. PBoC tercatat pada Minggu (10/5/2015) memangkan suku bunga pinjaman dan simpanan masing-masing sebesar 25 bps. Bunga pinjaman kini menjadi 5,1%, sedangkan bunga simpanan turun ke 2,25%. “Langkah diambil menyusul serangkaian data ekonomi yang di bawah prediksi, menambah kekhawatiran target pertumbuhan ekonomi 7% yang dicanangkan pemerintah meleset,” tulis Analis Strategydesk, Divisi Riset Soegee Futures dalam risetnya yang diterima hari ini, Senin (11/5/2015). Dikemukakan PBoC mengatakan langkah tersebut dapat membantu perkembangan sehat konomi. Indikator ekonomi yang dirilis dalam beberapa minggu terakhir mengindikasikan hilangnya momentum.

Keputusan ini juga datang setelah pejabat senior semakin khawatir dengan besarnya utang, akibat pertumbuhan kredit yang tinggi selama beberapa tahun terakhir. Kondisi ini ditakutkan dapat membebani upaya meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi. “Menurut Komisi Regulator Perbankan China, jumlah kredit macet meningkat tajam, selama kuartal pertama ini saja sudah melonjak 140 miliar yuan menjadi 982,5 miliar yuan.” Dikemukakan para pengamat dan ekonom memang sudah mendesak akan perlunya pelonggaran kebijakan moneter, karena pertumbuhan terus melambat. Sehingga keputusan ini tidak mengejutkan, mengingat kondisi ekonomi yang terus memburuk. “Namun banyak ekonom yang meyakini bank sentral belum selesai melakukan pelonggaran, meski sudah memangkas suku bunga dan Giro Wajib Minimum (GWM) beberapa kali dalam enam bulan belakangan.” http://finansial.bisnis.com/read/20150511/90/432048/pboc-pangkas-suku-bunga-lagi-simak-analisanya (http://finansial.bisnis.com/read/20150511/90/432048/pboc-pangkas-suku-bunga-lagisimak-analisanya) Sumber : BISNIS.COM New York, May 7, 2015 (AFP) The dollar strengthened Thursday after a positive US jobless claims report raised hopes for a solid April labor market report. The dollar rebounded from a swoon Wednesday that in part was due to disappointing private US hiring data. On Thursday, the weekly US unemployment claims report came in strongly positive, with the moving average falling to a 15-year low Markets were geared up for the Labor Department’s jobs report Friday to gauge whether the economy is strong enough for the Federal Reserve to begin raising ultra-low interest rates. Economists expected the Labor Department will report the economy added 218,000 jobs in April, picking up from a tepid 126,000 in March, with the unemployment rate dipping a tenth point to 5.4 percent. “After last month’s major disappointment in job growth, economists are looking for a strong rebound in April,” said Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management. “While we are optimistic and believe that the labor market recovered last month, the leading indicators that we typically track ahead of payrolls provides some cause for concern.” The pound, meanwhile, rose against the euro and dollar as Britain went to the polls in a tight election race. British Prime Minister David Cameron’s Conservatives were expected to win 316 seats, short of the required majority of 326 and ahead of center-left Labour on 239, according to an exit poll late Thursday.

 2100 GMT Thursday Wednesday EUR/USD 1.1266 1.1348 EUR/JPY 134.91 135.54 EUR/CHF 1.0384 1.0395 EUR/GBP 0.7382 0.7443 USD/JPY 119.75 119.44 USD/CHF 0.9218 0.9161 GBP/USD 1.5262 1.5247 

Hong Kong, May 4, 2015 (AFP) Asian markets gained ground Monday after a long holiday weekend, energised by a strong finish on Wall Street last week and gloomy Chinese economic data that heightened expectations for more stimulus measures. Seoul closed up 0.24 percent or 5.06 points to 2,132.23, led by technology and financial shares, while Hong Kong stocks ended down 9.18 points or 0.03 percent at 28,123.82. Sydney rose 13.1 points, or 0.23 percent, to close at 5,827.5 as the Aussie dollar slipped on expectations of another interest rate cut to combat a recent surge in the unit. Chinese shares rallied on hopes of monetary easing following a survey of manufacturing activity that recorded its worst contraction in a year in April. Shanghai added 0.87 percent to 4,480.46. Tokyo was closed for a public holiday, along with financial markets in Thailand and Malaysia. As well as the news on China’s economic front, Asian bourses took their lead from a rally on US markets on Friday which reversed a bruising two-day retreat following a dismal US economic growth report. HSBC’s final purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for China came in at 48.9 for April, below the break-even point of 50 and the weakest since 48.1 in the same month last year, indicating subdued domestic demand is hampering the economy. The British bank’s index tracks activity in China’s factories and workshops and is regarded as a barometer of the health of the Asian economic giant. The outcome was down from a preliminary reading of 49.2 and marked the second monthly contraction in a row after March’s 49.6. China’s government on Friday had posted its official PMI at 50.1 for last month, unchanged from March when the gauge showed growth for the first time this year. On Australian markets, attention was on a central bank meeting on Tuesday expected to address a rebound in the currency — problematic as the nation grapples with the decline of a mining boom. “The recent surge in the Australian dollar would be viewed quite dimly by the folks at the Reserve Bank,” Bill Evans, chief economist at Westpac Banking Corp, told Bloomberg News. Failing to cut rates “in the face of such strong market pricing will affect the bank’s credibility over time”, he added. The dollar extended gains against the euro in Asia on Monday ahead of the release of a closely watched report on the US labour market, analysts said. The euro bought $1.1194 in afternoon Singapore trade from $1.1200 in New York late Friday. It also fell to 134.40 yen from 134.56 yen. The greenback was changing hands at 120.07 yen from 120.14 yen on Friday. The Australian dollar fell to 78.24 US cents from 78.90 US cents. “Another big week for the dollar as markets await the US non-farm payrolls report this Friday,” Phillip Futures said in a market commentary. “A strong labour market report will likely strengthen the dollar. Conversely, weak data is likely to push the dollar down.” Singapore’s United Overseas Bank said the report on the US labour market could “swing market expectations for (the) Fed Reserve’s future course of interest rate actions”. Oil prices fell in Asia as dealers eyed the lacklustre manufacturing data from China, which raised concerns about weak demand from the world’s top energy consumer. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell two cents to $59.13 while Brent eased seven cents to $66.39 in afternoon trade. Gold fetched $1,182.38 against $1,182.97 earlier Monday. In other markets: — Mumbai surged 1.77 percent, or 479.28 points, to end at 27,490.59. Oil & Natural Gas Corporation surged 7.57 percent to 327.65 rupees, while private lender ICICI Bank fell 0.63 percent to 329.15 rupees. — Singapore closed down 0.13 percent, or 4.69 points, at 3,482.70. Real estate developer Capitaland rose 1.90 percent to Sg$3.76 while Singapore Telecom eased 1.13 percent to Sg$4.38. — Jakarta ended up 1.08 percent, or 54.71 points, at 5,141.14. Automaker Astra International gained 3.65 percent to 7,100 rupiah, while property developer Pakuwon Jati slipped 4.57 percent to 418 rupiah. — Taiwan rose 24.99 points, or 0.25 percent to 9,845.04. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co closed 0.34 percent higher at Tw$147.5, while Hon Hai Precision Industry added 1.20 percent to Tw$93.1. — Wellington fell 30.32 points or 0.52 percent to 5,767.08. Air New Zealand was down 0.56 percent at NZ$2.675 and Spark slipped 1.34 percent to NZ$2.9. — Manila closed 1.32 percent or 101.62 points higher at 7,816.44. Bank of the Philippine Islands gained 1.68 percent to 103 pesos while Ayala Land Inc. rose 3.49 percent to 40 pesos.

China’s monetary policy The flawed analogy of Chinese QE WITH China’s central bank injecting cash in the financial system to support growth, commentators have been quick to dub it the start of Chinese-style quantitative easing. Analogies can be useful for explaining complex financial matters, but in this instance the comparison is more misleading than helpful. “QE” is a poor description of the way Chinese monetary policy works. It also overstates the degree of easing the central bank is undertaking. Superficial parallels with the QE policies of America, Japan or Europe can be made. Just as central banks in those countries have bought government bonds and other securities from lenders to expand the money supply, so is the People’s Bank of China looking to do something similar. According to one report, it will acquire assets (http://cn.reuters.com/article/2015/04/27/chinaqe-idCNKBS0NI00T20150427) directly from commercial banks, just as the Federal Reserve did in buying mortgage-backed securities. Another has likened it to Europe’s “long-term refinancing operations (http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-readies-fresh-easing-to-tackle-specter-of-debt-1430206169)”, reporting that the central bank will lend directly to banks, taking localgovernment bonds as collateral. There is no question that China is loosening monetary policy, and that it is doing so on multiple fronts. But the QE analogy falls down in two ways. First, the use of quantitative tools has long been the norm for China’s monetary policy. The government still sets a money-supply target every year (it is shooting for 12% M2 growth this year) and regulators rely on lending quotas to influence the behaviour of banks. The central bank also adjusts the required reserve ratio, which determines how much cash is available to banks for lending, more often than it does interest rates. The biggest unconventional gambit confirmed so far this year is “pledged supplementary lending” to the China Development Bank, whereby the central bank provides financing that it is then lent on for infrastructure spending. This, however, is not a new policy. The Chinese central bank has regularly used similar forms of relending over the past two years. As analysts at Westpac, an Australian bank, note, China has ratcheted up its easing in recent weeks but has not changed its style. “China’s monetary policy is predominantly quantitative in nature, so yes, most initiatives it pursues under the current regime…will be more about quantum than price,” they write. The second problem with the QE comparison is that it exaggerates the extent of China’s monetary stimulus. As we explain in this week’s print edition, the loosening is intended in part to replace cash (http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21649543-efforts-stimulate-economy-risk-stoking-already-blazing) that has left China rather than to pump extra money into the economy. In the past the central bank relied on foreign-exchange inflows to generate money-supply growth (to simplify things a bit, it printed a steady stream of yuan to buy up the dollars entering the country from both trade and investment). Capital flows have reversed over the past half year, however, leading the central bank to create base money through alternative channels. China also has no need for QE. The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank, among others, have turned to quantitative easing because conventional monetary policies have run out of room (http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/03/economist-explains-5). Interest rates in these economies are close to zero and their central banks have had to come up with new ways to lower funding costs and spur banks to make loans. But in China, conventional policy still has plenty of space. Benchmark one-year interest rates are above 5% and the required-reserve ratio is 18.5%, unusually high for any country. Why, then, does China bother with relending when across-the-board easing would be more effective in stimulating the financial sector? The answer lies in the question. Unlike central banks that have turned to unconventional tools for general easing when all else has failed, China uses its relending for targeted purposes, hoping to avoid splashing cash all over an economy when debt levels are already too high. “The PBOC resorts to relending operations because it doesn’t trust financial markets to allocate credit to the areas that policymakers want it to go, not because it has concerns over banking sector liquidity,” say analysts at Capital Economics, a consultancy. If the central bank accepts local-government bonds as collateral, its objective will be to persuade banks to buy the bonds in the first place. Yet this approach to monetary policy creates its own problems. For an economy that has grown as large and complex as China, quantitative tools are increasingly anachronistic. They can work when a financial system is largely closed. But as the capital account opens and bond markets displace banks, it is far more effective for central banks to focus on the price of credit (ie. interest rates), rather than its volume. Moreover, the attempt to target lending to deserving recipients speaks to the persistence of central-planning instincts. On the other hand, China has made plenty of progress over the past few years in freeing up its financial system (http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21648641-slowing-economy-commands-headlines-real-story-reformquiet-revolution) and the central bank is, little by little, shifting to a price-based monetary policy. Targeted lending, so long as limited in size, as it has been so far, helps to cushion an economy that is going through these structural changes. Easing has always been quantitative in China. The point is to get away from that. (Reuters) – China’s economy (http://www.reuters.com/finance/markets) grew 7.0 percent in the first quarter, as expected but still its slowest rate in six years, reinforcing bets that policymakers will take more steps to bolster growth. Economists polled by Reuters had expected China’s gross domestic product (GDP)to rise 7.0 percent in January-March compared with a year ago. In the last quarter of 2014, China’s economy grew 7.3 percent on an annual basis. On a quarterly basis, economic growth slowed to 1.3 percent between January and March after seasonal adjustments, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday, compared with growth of 1.5 percent in the previous three months. Analysts had expected quarterly growth of 1.4 percent. Activity indicators for March were all weaker than expected. Factory output climbed 5.6 percent in March from a year ago, below forecasts for a 6.9 percent gain. Fixed-asset investment, a vital driver of the economy, rose 13.5 percent compared with the same month last year. Analysts had expected a rise of 13.8 percent. Retail sales expanded 10.2 percent compared with expectations for a 10.9 percent gain. New York, April 8, 2015 (AFP) When social media software firm Sprinklr unveiled its latest funding last month, it vaulted into the club of “unicorns,” or tech startups worth at least $1 billion. That came just weeks after Slack, which makes a business software collaboration tool, entered the group which includes well-known names like Uber and Snapchat While unicorns are supposed to be rare, mythical creatures, the proliferation of these billion-dollar startups has raised eyebrows as well as concerns in the fast-moving technology sector. More than 80 tech firms can now be called unicorns, according to a Forbes Magazine list. The venture capital research firm CB Insights lists 53 US-based unicorns, saying the hefty valuations have been fueled by a flood of private equity investors seeking an early piece of the next tech superstar. The use of the term “unicorn” began with a blog from investor Aileen Lee of Cowboy Ventures in late 2013, when there were just 39 of the creatures and an average of four “born” each year. The number created in 2014 rose to 38, according to CB Ventures. While some of the unicorns appear to be headed for big things, unicorn fever has raised fears of a bubble in the private equity markets. “You have a frenzy of investors looking for the next Facebook. They saw the possibility of a return of 1,000 percent,” says Rob Enderle, a consultant and analyst at Enderle Group. “But these are incredibly risky investments. All of these firms are not going to get a multibillion dollar buyout or massive public offering. I think we’re going to see a thinning of the herd.” – ‘Dead unicorns’ – The unicorns include a handful of startups worth at least $10 billion, a group sometimes called the “decacorns.” These include China’s Xiaomi, Airbnb, Pinterest and Dropbox, in addition to Uber and Snapchat. Some equity investors are getting nervous over the trend. “I do think you’ll see some dead unicorns this year,” said Bill Gurley, a partner at the Silicon Valley venture firm Benchmark, at the South by Southwest festival in March. Gurley, who has been a leading voice of caution on unicorns, said in a blog post that both investors and startups are pushing too hard, ignoring traditional standards of risk. “We are in a risk bubble,” he said. “Companies are taking on huge burn rates to justify spending the capital they are raising in these enormous financings, putting their long-term viability in jeopardy.” In a running Twitter conversation on the subject, Danielle Morrill of the research firm Mattermark said “I’ve narrowed it down to 61 potential dead unicorns. This is the stuff everyone is talking about but no one will publish.” Prominent equity investor Marc Andreessen, one of the founders of Netscape during the dot-com era, expressed similar concerns in a series of tweets last year, saying too many startups are “burning” cash too quickly. “When the market turns, and it will turn, we will find out who has been swimming without trunks on: many high burn rate co’s will VAPORIZE,” he said. Mark Cuban, an early dot-com entrepreneur, said on his blog that the current situation is “worse than the tech bubble of 2000” because of “angel” investors investing in apps and tech firms with little scrutiny. “I have absolutely no doubt in my mind that most of these individual angels and crowd funders are currently under water in their investments,” he wrote. “Because there is ZERO liquidity for any of those investments. None. Zero. Zip.” – Precipitous drop – There appears to have already been some shakeout. The online retail startup Fab.com, which raised $300 million and joined the unicorn club last year, ended up selling most of its assets in March to the manufacturing firm PCH in a deal reported to be worth just $15 million. Another former unicorn, the gaming service OnLive, was acquired recently by Sony for an undisclosed price. Many startups have been able to raise cash from eager investors without heading to Wall Street for a public share offering. This also means the firms are not subject to the same scrutiny and publicly traded company for finances and governance. Anant Sundaram, a professor at Dartmouth’s Tuck School of Business who specializes in corporate valuations, said that while financial data on these unicorns is often limited, few have demonstrated an ability to grow revenues and establish a sustainable business. “Based on historical data, I wouldn’t be surprised if a vast majority of these firms fail to live up to their valuations,” Sundaram told AFP. Still, he said that these types of investments are part of the process of innovation and “creative destruction” which fuel the economy. While this is reminiscent of the dot-com boom, Sundaram noted that in the last cycle, “You had similar businesses (that) came in with very high valuations and many went bust, but this produced a Google and an eBay and a number of other standouts.” Peter Barris at the venture firm New Enterprise Associates said investment is flowing because “we are in the early days of one of the most robust periods of innovation I’ve seen in my lifetime.” In a blog post, Barris said he sees unicorns transforming the way we live. “Perhaps there will even be a flameout or two spectacular enough to become Valley legend. But many companies will justify that valuation, and some will go much, much farther,” he said. New York, March 27, 2015 (AFP) “Bubble” talk returned to Wall Street this week with US stocks falling in part due to worries that biotech and other highflying stocks have risen to unjustifiable heights. US stocks rallied on Friday, but it was not enough to offset losses the other four days. The Nasdaq Composite Index, which has outperformed the broader market in 2015, fell the most over the week, dropping 135.20 points (2.69 percent) to 4,891.22. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 414.99 (2.29 percent) to 17,712.66, while the S&P 500 shed 47.04 (2.23 percent) to 2,061.02 Heading into the week, the Nasdaq stood above 5,000, rarified territory for an index that took 15 years to claw back near an all-time high set in 2000. But the tech-rich index found itself on the back foot most of the week. Biotech companies like Celgene and Biogen came under pressure on worries that their promising new medications may fizzle, or take longer than expected to win regulatory approval. The Nasdaq biotech index lost 5.2 percent on the week. Semiconductor stocks were another weak segment in the index. “The biggest story we saw was the mini-correction in biotechs and the mini-correction in semiconductors,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist of Wunderlich Securities. Hogan said sentiment is “very cautious” ahead of the upcoming earnings season, with analysts having slashed estimates for many companies. Investors are also more focused on the liabilities than the merits of the stronger dollar and lower oil prices, he said. Major economic data included news that US economic growth slowed to an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter, unchanged from a previous estimate, from 5.0 percent in third quarter. Despite stronger consumption, US growth was hit by a 10.1 percent increase in imports and a 7.3 percent fall in federal government spending. Other data showed a slump in durable goods orders in February, but rising sales of new single-family homes and an increase in consumer prices during the month. – Big food merger – Highlighting the week’s corporate news was the merger deal to create The Kraft Heinz Company, fusing ketchup-maker Heinz with Kraft Foods, the maker of Velveeta cheese, A-1 steak sauce, Jell-O and a host of other processed foods. The deal, forged by investment guru Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway and 3G Capital, which own Heinz, will assemble the world’s fifth-largest food company, with around $28 billion in annual sales. Berkshire and 3G will invest an additional $10 billion to pay for a special cash dividend of $16.50 per share for Kraft shareholders. Dow Chemical got a lift from news that it will separate its US cholorine businesses and merge them with chemical company Olin into a company with revenues approaching $7 billion. Conditions stayed turbulent for petroleum stocks, which continue to reel from lower oil prices. Whiting Petroleum sank nearly 22 percent in the week as it announced a $1 billion bond offering and a major equity offering that will dilute existing shares. But cruise companies surged at week’s end on a better profit outlook due in part to lower fuel costs. Carnival Friday announced higher profits and said it ordered nine new cruise ships from shipbuilders in Germany and Italy. Earnings season gets under way next week with results from agricultural giant Monsanto on Wednesday. Most major reports will not be released until later in April. Next week also includes a heavy calendar of economic releases, including the Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence, construction spending and international trade. The week’s most closely watched report will be the March jobs report. Analysts forecast the US economy added 248,000 jobs and the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.5 percent. The jobs report will be released Friday, when markets are closed for Good Friday.

BEIJING. Bursa China menguat mencapai rekor tertinggi sejak Mei 2008. Penguatan bursa didorong oleh spekulasi rencana Pemerintah China mendorong perekonomian lebih tinggi. Shanghai Composite Index naik 2,1% menjadi 3.577,30 pada penutupan perdagangan, Rabu (18/3). Indeks menguat hampir 77% dalam waktu satu tahun ini. Sedangkan CSI 300 Index meningkat 2,4% dan Hang Seng China Enterprises Index di Hong Kong menguat 1,2%. Indeks Hang Seng juga mengalami penguatan 0,9%. Sejumlah saham menggerakkan bursa saham China, antara lain China Everbright Bank Co, Pangang Group Vanadium Titanium & Resources Co, dan China Eastern Airlines Corp. Yan Liu, seorang trader di Guosen Securities Co mengatakan, aktivitas perdagangan yang tinggi menjadi penyokong pergerakan bursa China. Tercatat dalam perdagangan hari ini, frekuensi perdagangan saham mencapai dua kali rata-rata yang terjadi dalam 30 hari terakhir. “Sedangkan spekulasi tambahan stimulus membantu bursa naik lebih tinggi,” kata Yan Liu, Rabu (18/3). Editor: Uji Agung Santosa Sumber: Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com/) Beijing, March 15, 2015 (AFP)

China akan menggelontorkan $T1MULU$ lage: GDP single digit (new normal) yaitu 7-9% p.a.; kebijakan majemuk ekonomi makro; ada cukup DANA mengangkat pertumbuhan ekonomi LEBE GEDE; suku bunga RENDAH dengan tingkat inflasi maksimum 3%; membeli produk tambang yang sedang murah lebe banyak sebagai ancang angkat pertumbuhan ekonomi… The Chinese government has more weapons in its arsenal to boost the world’s second-largest economy, Premier Li Keqiang said Sunday as he sought to ease concerns about flagging growth. Li earlier this month reduced China’s annual growth target to “approximately seven percent”, the lowest since a similar goal in 2004. The economy expanded 7.4 percent last year, the slowest pace in nearly a quarter of a century. Fears are growing that Chinese expansion, a key driver of the global economy, may slow further after official data released last week showed production, consumption and investment growth all fell to multi-year lows. Authorities have so far avoided big-ticket incentives to bolster growth like the unprecedented four-trillion-yuan (now $640 billion) stimulus package Beijing deployed at the height of the global financial crisis. But Li signalled that more measures could be taken, telling reporters at his annual press conference: “We still have a host of policy instruments at our disposal.” Beijing was prepared to “step up our targeted macro-economic regulation” to boost market confidence if growth slowed to approach the “lower limit of our proper range” and threatened employment and incomes. “The good news is that in the past couple of years we did not resort to massive stimulus measures for economic growth,” he said after the close of the country’s Communist-controlled National People’s Congress legislature. That gave authorities “fairly ample room” to act, he said. Top Chinese leaders have said the economy is in a delicate transition away from decades of double-digit annual growth to a new, slower model that authorities say is more sustainable, a stage that they have branded as “new normal”. – Still behind – Li dismissed theories that China’s boom has seen it overtake the US to become the world’s number one economy, describing such purchasing power parity calculations as a “misleading exaggeration”. “According to authoritative standards, China is still the second-largest economy in the world,” he said, stressing that it remained “behind about 80 countries in the world” in terms of per capita GDP. He recalled a recent visit he paid to two rural families in the nation’s remote and backward west, where he met a man in his 40s who could not afford to marry and a college student who depended on his younger sister’s income as a migrant worker in the cities to pay his tuition fees. “It truly pains me to see our people living in such distress and I’m sure that there are many more such families in the vast land of China,” he said, adding nearly 200 million Chinese remained in poverty by World Bank standards. “China is still a developing country in every sense of this term.” Underlining official concerns over the economy, the central People’s Bank of China cut benchmark deposit and lending interest rates in late February for the second time in three months, citing “historically low inflation”. Consumer inflation fell in January to a more-than-five-year low of 0.8 percent. It rebounded to 1.4 percent last month during the Chinese New Year holiday but remained far below this year’s government target of “around three percent”. Li denied accusations that China was “exporting deflation” and blamed falling prices for commodities such as crude oil and iron ore for the drop in the value of imports. The country bought increased amounts of such goods last year, he said. “We are prepared to cope with such a situation and at the same time what we hope more to see is that there will be a quicker global economic recovery and the global economy will regain its momentum of robust growth,” he said. JAKARTA. Harga saham di bursa Hong Kong terdorong oleh sinyal positif dari pidato Perdana Menteri China Li Keqiang. Indeks Hang Seng ditutup menguat 0,53% ke 23.949,55. Indeks meneruskan penguatan 0,45% yang dicapai pada penutupan dua hari terakhir pekan lalu. Hang seng rebound dari pelemahan 0,22% pada pembukaan dan bergerak fluktuatif pada kisaran 23.711,27—23.970,05. Dari 50 saham yang tergabung di indeks Hang Seng, 20 saham menguat, 26 saham bergerak turun, dan 4 saham stagnan. PM China Li Keqiang hari ini berjanji mengambil tindakan jika ekonomi China tumbuh terlalu rendah atau nilai tukar yuan tertekan terlalu dalam. Li dalam pidato tersebut juga mendorong pengembangan perdagangan dalam jaringan. Pernyataan tersebut mendongkrak harga saham China Mobile Ltd di bursa Hong Kong. China Mobile melonjak 2,7% di penutupan, saham dengan kenaikan poin indeks tertinggi pada perdagangan hari ini. Pergerakan Indeks Hang Seng Tanggal Level Perubahan 16/3/2015 23.949,55 +0,53% 13/3/2015 23.823,21 +0,11% 12/3/2015 23.797,96 +0,34% 11/3/2015 23.717,97 -0,75% 10/3/2015 23.896,98 -0,94% Sumber: Bloomberg http://market.bisnis.com/read/20150316/7/412260/bursa-hongkong-16-maret-hang-seng-naik-053-terpacu-pidato-pm-china (http://market.bisnis.com/read/20150316/7/412260/bursahongkong-16-maret-hang-seng-naik-053-terpacu-pidato-pm-china) Sumber : BISNIS.COM THE TELEGRAPH: Is the party over for Wall Street? Over a five-year period, the US stock market has left its rivals trailing, leading from the front as investors have celebrated recovery from the financial crisis. Zoom in to the period since the start of the year, however, and the S&P 500 is bringing up the rear. Last week it gave up all its gains for the year to date. By contrast, Europe’s stock markets are on a tear as the combination of cheap oil, a newly competitive currency and the promise of €60bn (£43bn) a month of money printing make the region seem a one-way bet. It’s the same story in Japan. Even the UK, dragged down by its heavy weighting to out-of-favour commodities and facing an uncertain election, is in positive territory. The principal concern for investors in American equities is the seemingly unstoppable rise in the value of the dollar. The idea that this would make it attractive to hold US assets has been blown away by the reality that it is very bad news for America’s big multi-national corporations. The money they earn overseas is worth significantly less on translation back into dollars than it was this time last year. And their goods and services are far less competitive than they were. In the final few months of 2014, companies such as Apple, Pfizer, Procter & Gamble and Microsoft began to grumble that the strength of the US currency was holding their profits back. Now the numbers themselves are beginning to confirm their fears. For the first time since 2009, in the depths of the post-Lehman slump, US company profits are expected to fall for two consecutive quarters. Even without a soaring dollar, US profits would be under pressure from the collapse since last June in the oil price. Energy companies are the principal contributor to the earnings slide as oil and gas producers’ revenues have taken a hit, long before the expected boost to consumption starts to benefit other sectors. Analysts have slashed their forecasts in the early weeks of 2015. If American shares were cheap, this recalibration of earnings expectations might not matter. But after pretty much trebling in value since the dark days of 2009, US stocks are actually the world’s most expensive. Not ridiculously so, by historical standards, but high enough that a temporary fall in profits has unsettled investor sentiment. With the Federal Reserve likely next week to drop a key reference to being “patient” about the first hike in US interest rates, investors are unsurprisingly looking around for better places for their money. And for the first time in quite a while there are some half decent options available to them. Both Europe and Japan are engaged in massive economic stimulus programmes that are driving their currencies lower and underpinning financial asset prices. The US is no longer the only game in town. With the current bull market in US shares now ranking as the fourth longest since the Great Depression, it is unsurprising that people are questioning how long it can go on. That’s the bad news. Before anyone turns their back on the world’s biggest stock market, however, they should consider the counter arguments. The first of these is that US growth is expected to bounce back in the second half of 2015 as consumers start to benefit from cheaper energy, offsetting the hit to producers that’s already being felt. Secondly, one key measure of the US economy – job creation – is still firing on all cylinders. Ironically, one of the principal reasons for the market’s recent weakness was the strength of the jobs market – 295,000 new jobs were created in February and the unemployment rate is rapidly falling back to historic lows. Thirdly, the US corporate sector recently notched up nearly four years of double-digit dividend growth. Over the past 15 quarters, dividends have grown at an annualised rate of over 14pc. In an environment of persistently low interest rates, in which income is increasingly prized by investors, it is unsurprising that US shares have responded so positively. What they are not paying out as dividends, many other US companies are using to buy back their shares, which boosts earnings and makes valuations more palatable. Finally, the US is home to some of the most profitable businesses on the planet. Its market is weighted towards the best-performing sectors – such as healthcare and technology. The US stock market is no longer cheap and is more vulnerable than most markets to an arguably overdue correction. But it still deserves a place in any portfolio. Tom Stevenson is an investment director at Fidelity Worldwide Investment. The views expressed are his own.He tweets at @tomstevenson63 bloomberg: The U.S. economy — the world’s biggest — is back in action (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-09/u-s-retakes-the-helm-of-the-global-economy).Yet it’s China’s slowdown that’s weighing on Asia, with central bank chiefs in Thailand (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-11/thai-central-bank-unexpectedly-cuts-key-rate-to-support-economy) and South Korea (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-12/bank-of-korea-unexpectedly-cuts-key-rate-to-record-low) citing it among reasons behind their surprise interest-rate reductions this week.China’s economy has about doubled since 2008, making its slowdown a bigger drag today, just as its standout growth through the global recession six years ago was such a boost for Asia. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang last week set the nation’s 2015 expansion target at about 7 percent, the slowest (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-0305/china-lowers-growth-target-to-about-7-as-headwinds-intensify) in more than 15 years, and that’s made some countries nervous.

This from the Bank of Korea’s policy statement on Thursday: “Influenced by the economic recoveries in advanced countries and the low prices of oil, the Korean economy is expected to improve in the coming months, albeit at a moderate pace as structural factors limit private consumption. However, the slowdown in the Chinese economy may work as a downside risk.” And this from the Bank of Thailand a day earlier: “Exports of goods are expected to recover at a rate close to the previous projection, but with higher downside risks from a slowdown in trading partners’ economies, notably China.” Given the two rate reductions, it looks like Asian policymakers are focused for now on China’s sneezes rather than the rosy cheeks of a healthier U.S. economy. bloomberg: Eight of the biggest U.S. technology companies added a combined $69 billion to their stockpiled offshore profits over the past year, even as some corporations in other industries felt pressure to bring cash back home. Microsoft Corp., Apple Inc., Google Inc. and five other tech firms now account for more than a fifth of the $2.10 trillion in profits that U.S. companies are holding overseas, according to a Bloomberg News review of the securities filings of 304 corporations. The total amount held outside the U.S. by the companies was up 8 percent from the previous year, though 58 companies reported smaller stockpiles. The money pileup, reflecting companies’ incentives to park profits in low-tax countries, has drawn the attention of President Barack Obama and U.S. lawmakers, who see a chance to tap the funds for spending programs and to revamp the tax code. That effort is stalled in Washington, and there are few signs that tech companies will bring the profits back to the U.S. until Congress gives them an incentive or a mandate. “It just makes no sense to repatriate, pay a substantial tax on it,” said Joseph Kennedy, a senior fellow at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, a policy-research group whose board of directors includes executives from Microsoft and Oracle Corp. “Computing and IT companies especially have a lot of flexibility in where they declare their profits.”

Apple, Google Microsoft, Apple and Google each boosted their accumulated foreign profits by more than 20 percent over the year, the largest increases by any of the 34 companies with at least $16 billion outside the U.S. International Business Machines Corp., Cisco Systems Inc., Oracle, Qualcomm Inc. and Hewlett-Packard Co. each added at least $4 billion. The profits added by the eight technology companies accounted for 45 percent of the net gain in overseas funds among the corporations surveyed. At the same time, firms in some other industries felt enough pressure to meet domestic needs that they chose to take the tax hit by bringing money home. Washington, March 5, 2015 (AFP) US factory orders fell for a sixth straight month in January despite strong orders in the crucial civilian aircraft sector, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.Overall factory orders dropped 0.2 percent from December to $470 billion, slower than December’s 3.5 percent fall.Excluding the transportation sector — heavily dominated by cars and aircraft sales — new orders decreased by 1.8 percent in the month. Car sales were flat.There was some strength in the report however. Manufactured durable goods orders gained 2.8 percent after a 3.7 percent decline in December.There was strong growth in orders for power generation and transmission equipment, and computers and electronics. HONG KONG. Bursa Asia jatuh. MSCI Asia Pacific Index turun 0,1% menjadi 145,37 dalam perdagangan di Hong Kong, pukul 4:17 p.m, Kamis (5/3).Pelemahan bursa Asia terjadi akibat adanya sentimen negatif, penurunan target pertumbuhan ekonomi China yang paling rendah selama 15 tahun ini. Sementara investor di Amerika Serikat (AS) juga menunggu data tenaga kerja dan industri jasa.Beberapa saham yang mempengaruhi indeks Asia Pacific antara lain, China Shenhua Energy Co dan Anhui Conch Cement Co. Saham perusahaan batubara dan semen tersebut turun hampir 2,6%. Sedangkan saham Olympus Corp turun 2,9%.Fan Cheuk Wan, Chief Investment Officer Credit Suisse Group AG untuk Asia Pacific mengatakan, penting bagi pemerintah China untuk melakukan tindakan mengatasi pelemahan pertumbuhan ekonomi.”Ini akan membuat bank sentral China semakin kuat melakukan kebijakan moneter longgar. Kami mengantisipasi kebijakan bunga dalam tiga bulan mendatang,” kata Fan Cheuk Wan, Kamis (5/3). Seperti diketahui, Perdana Menteri China Li Keqian telah mengumumkan kemungkinan turunnya target pertumbuhan ekonomi China dari sebelumnya 7,5% menjadi 7%. http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/ekonomi-china-turun-bursa-asia-terjerembab (http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/ekonomi-china-turun-bursa-asia-terjerembab) Sumber : KONTAN.CO.ID INILAHCOM, Washington – Ekonomi Amerika Serikat tumbuh lebih lambat dari yang diperkirakan pada kuartal keempat 2014, tertekan oleh kenaikan lebih kecil dalam persediaan dan peningkatan lebih besar dalam impor, data revisi menunjukkan Jumat. Departemen Perdagangan mengatakan produk domestik bruto (PDB) tumbuh 2,2 persen pada kuartal terakhir tahun lalu, merevisi lebih rendah estimasi sebelumnya 2,6 persen. Revisi turun ekspansi PDB sedikit lebih baik dari ekspektasi kenaikan 2,1 persen setelah pada kuartal ketiga melaju kuat 5,0 persen. Menurut data ekonomi terbaru, pertumbuhan moderat pada kuartal keempat terutama mencerminkan peningkatan yang lebih kecil dalam investasi persediaan dan tingkat impor yang lebih tinggi sehingga mengurangi dari PDB, kata departemen. Meskipun penurunan harga energi bisa mendorong belanja konsumen, pelemahan ekonomi global dan penguatan dolar membebani neraca perdagangan negara. Ekspor naik hanya 3,2 persen pada kuartal keempat, setelah naik 4,5 persen di kuartal ketiga dan melompat 11,1 persen di kuartal kedua. Belanja konsumen, yang menyumbang sekitar 70 persen dari kegiatan ekonomi AS, merupakan pendorong utama pertumbuhan, naik 4,2 persen, tertinggi selama empat tahun. Pengeluaran berkontribusi sekitar 2,8 persentase poin terhadap pertumbuhan kuartal keempat, bagian terbesar dalam hampir 10 tahun terakhir. [tar] – See more at: http://ekonomi.inilah.com/read/detail/2182750/ekonomi-as-tumbuh-melambat-ke-22-persen#sthash.BnW8ZAO4.dpuf (http://ekonomi.inilah.com/read/detail/2182750/ekonomias-tumbuh-melambat-ke-22-persen#sthash.BnW8ZAO4.dpuf)

New York, Feb 10, 2015 (AFP) Apple became the first company to reach a market value of $700 billion Tuesday as shares vaulted amid upbeat news on the US tech giant’s gains in the smartphone market and soon-to-arrive smartwatch. Shares rose 1.9 percent to close at $122.02, lifting Apple’s market value to $710 billion, and making it the first company to hit the $700 billion milestone. Apple chief executive Tim Cook, speaking at the Goldman Sachs Technology & Internet Conference, said Apple was hitting its stride. “We’ve taken (the mobile operating system) iOS and extended it into your car, into your home, into your health. All of these are really critical parts of your life,” Cook said. “We want one seamless kind of life. And so, I think that is huge for our future…We also did a lot of things to further our global footprint. And so, if you look at what we’ve done in China, we’ve opened more stores there. We’ve opened a lot more distribution there. Through the world, we’ve opened almost 20,000 new points of sale. We’ve opened 27 new Apple Stores, lot of flagship stores.” Cook said Apple took some $50 billion in revenue in emerging markets over the past calendar year. – Room to grow – Brian White, analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, said the leading tech company has even more room to grow. “Given Apple’s powerful iPhone cycle, a big 4G ramp in China and the upcoming launch of Apple Watch in April, we believe there is still plenty to look forward to at Apple during this transformational cycle,” he said in a note to clients. “At the same time, we believe Apple’s valuation has room to expand from depressed levels.” Apple shares remain valued at reasonable levels, according to analysts, because of the whopping $18 billion quarterly profit reported recently by the iPhone and iPad maker. Using the price-earnings ratio favored by Wall Street, Apple is valued at around 16 times its annual earnings, but Fitzgerald said the value was only around 10 times the projected earnings for the next fiscal year. Apple is far ahead in market value from the number two company, oil giant Exxon Mobil, worth some $382 billion at the market close. The record Apple quarterly profit — on unprecedented revenue of $74.6 billion — was driven by the sale of 74.5 million iPhones, well ahead of most analysts’ expectations. Analysts are also seeing expanded adoption of the Apple Pay system that enables customers to purchase items with a tap of their iPhone, and many predict strong demand for the Apple Watch set for release in April. Separately, Apple agreed to commit $848 million for solar energy to power its data centers, according to a statement from First Solar, Inc. Cook called the effort “our biggest, boldest, and most ambitious project ever” and said it was part of Apple’s commitment on clean energy and corporate responsibility. Apple will receive electricity from 130 megawatts under a 25-year power purchase agreement, “the largest agreement in the industry to provide clean energy to a commercial end user,” the solar firm said. The 2,900-acre California Flats Solar Project occupies part of a property owned by Hearst Corporation in Cholame, California, with construction set to start this year. Apple unveiled plans earlier this month to pump $2 billion over the coming decade into a solar-powered data center “global command” facility in the southwest state of Arizona. soe-rl/rcw APPLE INC. Beijing, Feb 10, 2015 (AFP) China’s inflation plunged to 0.8 percent in January, its lowest level for more than five years, official data showed Tuesday, heightening fears of deflation in the world’s second-largest economy. The rise in the consumer price index (CPI) was sharply down from the 1.5 percent recorded in December, and was its weakest since November 2009 when it stood at 0.6 percent, according to figures provided by the National Bureau of Statistics. Moderate inflation can be a boon to consumption as it encourages consumers to buy before prices go up, while falling prices encourage shoppers to delay purchases and companies to put off investment, both of which can hurt growth. The fall in CPI was driven by tumbling international crude prices and warmer January temperatures than average, causing vegetable, fruit and aquatic product prices to fall, senior NBS analyst Yu Qiumei said in a statement. Separately, the producer price index (PPI) — a measure of costs for goods at the factory gate and a leading indicator of the trend for CPI — declined for the 35th straight month in January. The 4.3 percent year-on-year PPI fall was the biggest since October 2009. The last time PPI rose was three years ago. Shanghai, Jan 21, 2015 (AFP) Chinese shares were up 3.48 percent in afternoon trading Wednesday on buying of financial stocks, adding to gains from the previous day, dealers said. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index jumped 110.39 points to 3,283.44. The Shenzhen Composite Index, which tracks stocks on China’s second exchange, gained 2.20 percent, or 32.55 points, to 1,509.39. On Monday, the Shanghai index tumbled 7.70 percent, its biggest fall since June 2008, after authorities moved to rein in risky margin trading business. But it rebounded Tuesday on better-than-expected economic growth figures and comments by the market regulator which denied the margin trading crackdown aimed to “suppress” a rally that sent the Shanghai market up more than 50 percent in 2014. “The market continued its rebound from Tuesday, but it’s uncertain whether this correction is over,” Haitong Securities analyst Zhang Qi told AFP. “Regulators certainly don’t want to see drastic rises and falls in the market. They want healthy and steady development,” he said. Tokyo, Jan 20, 2015 (AFP) The yen slipped in Asia on Tuesday as confidence was boosted by better-than-expected Chinese growth data, while the euro struggled against the dollar on expectations for more European Central Bank stimulus. In Tokyo, the dollar rose to 118.21 yen against 117.53 yen in London on Monday, while the euro edged up to 136.88 yen from 136.69 yen. The single currency weakened to $1.1579 from $1.1630. Official data Tuesday showed China’s economy — the world’s second biggest — expanded 7.4 percent in 2014. While that marked the lowest annual growth in 24 years, it beat a 7.2 percent median forecast in an AFP survey of 15 economists. “Markets took Chinese data to be slightly stronger than expected,” Shusuke Yamada, a strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in Tokyo, told Bloomberg News. “That’s underpinning (the) dollar-yen which is seen to have a firm correlation with risk sentiment.” Investors tend to move into the yen during times of uncertainty and turmoil. ECB policymakers hold their much-anticipated meeting on Thursday and analysts broadly expect it to announce a bond-buying scheme aimed at kickstarting lending in the struggling eurozone. Those expectations have hammered the euro, which last week fell below $1.1500 for the first time in more than 11 years before recovering slightly. Chronically low inflation across the eurozone has fuelled concern the region could slip into deflation — a sustained and widespread drop in prices — and has led to speculation that the ECB would be forced to act. But the euro may drift higher if details of the bank’s stimulus fail to surprise investors, said Yuji Kameoka, chief foreign-exchange strategist at Daiwa Securities. “The euro has limited downside in the near-term given that markets already priced in the ECB’s bond buying,” he said. ” Dealers are also keeping an eye on Greece where an anti-austerity party is leading opinion polls ahead of a general election at the weekend, leading to fears the country could eventually exit the eurozone. BEIJING – China telah menggebrak peta ekonomi dunia. Bahkan negara tersebut dijuluki Macan Asia, karena produk berlabel ‘made in China’ telah menggurita dan bahkan mengalahkan produk Amerika-Eropa. Ekonomi China bahkan mampu melompat di atas 11 persen. Namun itu cerita dulu. Kini langkah si Macan Asia mulai melambat. Ekonomi China sepanjang 2014 hanya mencatatkan angka 7,4 persen. Bloomberg, Selasa (20/1/2014) memberitakan, angka ini cerminan kinerja ekonomi terburuk sejak 1990. Data menunjukkan, pertumbuhan ekonomi kuartal IV-2014 hanya 7,3 persen, atau meningkat tipis dari median 2014 di posisi 7,2 persen. Padahal, Pemerintah China menargetkan growth domestic product (GDP) mencapai angka 7,5 persen. Penurunan ini terjadi karena sejumlah faktor, di antaranya laju ekonomi per kuartalan yang sangat lambat. Selain itu stimulus China yang meleset dan lesunya sektor properti. Menurut Head of Asia-Pacific Sovereigns Fitch Ratings Andrew Colquhoun, dalam penjelasannya kepada Okezone realisasi pertumbuhan China sesuai dengan espektasi dan ekonom dunia. Pertumbuhan China sangat riskan karena bergantung pada ekspansi kredit. Melihat situasi ini, ekonomi China pada tahun ini pun diprediksi tidak secemerlang tahun-tahun sebelumnya. “Kita memproyeksikan angka pertumbuhan China di 2015 dimulai dengan angka 6. Kami memperkirakan pertumbuhan China 6,8 persen tahun ini, dan akan lebih melambat pada 2016 di level 6,5 persen,” jelas Andrew. http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/01/20/213/1094592/china-si-macan-asia-yang-mulai-kelelahan-berlari (http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/01/20/213/1094592/china-si-macanasia-yang-mulai-kelelahan-berlari) Sumber : OKEZONE.COM JAKARTA– Harga tembaga melanjutkan kenaikan tiga hari berturut-turut setelah China memutuskan untuk meningkatkan infrastruktur. Pasar berspekulasi perkembangan infrastruktur di China mampu memulihkan perekonomian Negeri Tirai Bambu tersebut. Daniel Hynes, analis Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., mengatakan pengumuman rencana pemerintah China untuk fokus kepada pembangunan infrastruktur memang membawa dampak positif ke pergerakan harga logam industri. “Tapi untuk itu pasar butuh diyakinkan mengenai realisasinya, bila benar terealisasi maka menjadi sentimen positif untuk logam industri,” ujarnya seperti dilansir Bloomberg pada Senin (19/1/2015). Pemerintah China mengumumkan pembangunan jaringan kereta api antara provinsi Shandong dengan Yunan telah disetujui. Lalu, produksi industri China pada Desember 2014 diprediksi akan naik ke level 7,4% lebih tinggi dibandingkan November 2014 sebesar 7,2%. Pada perdagangan sampai pukul 10:00 WIB, harga tembaga pengiriman tiga bulan di London Metal Exchange (LME) naik 1,51% menjadi US$5.715 per metrik ton, sedangkan harga tembaga berjangka di New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) turun 0,53% menjadi US$2,6 per pon. Source : Bloomberg http://market.bisnis.com/read/20150119/94/392350/harga-tembaga-kinclong-setelah-china-umumkan-bangun-jaringan-ka-shandong-yunan Sumber : BISNIS.COM JAKARTA—Harga tembaga di bursa London terus menguat akibat lonjakan belanja sektor infrastruktur di China sebagai konsumen terbesar dunia. Harga logam bergerak naik setelah mencatat peningkatan dua hari tertinggi dalam 15 bulan. Sebelumnya, harga komoditas tersebut menguat 1,1% sebagaimana dikutuip Bloomberg, Senin (19/1/2015). Harga tembaga untuk pengiriman tiga bulan di bursa London Metal Exchange tercatat US$5.720,50 per metrik ton pada pukul 09:40 waktu Hong Kong atau pukul 08:40 WIB. Pekan lalu harga logam itu anjlok 6,2% atau penurunan paling tajam selama hampir tiga tahun di tengah kekhawatiran permintaan akan turun. Di bursa New York, kontrak tembaga untuk Maret turun 0,7% menjadi US$2,5995 per pound. Sedangkan di bursa Shanghai harga logam pada bulan yang sama naik 1,3% menjadi US$6.700 per ton. http://market.bisnis.com/read/20150119/94/392339/ekonomi-china-belanja-infrastruktur-melonjak-tembaga-menguat (http://market.bisnis.com/read/20150119/94/392339/ekonomi-chinabelanja-infrastruktur-melonjak-tembaga-menguat) Sumber : BISNIS.COM Beijing, Jan 13, 2015 (AFP) China’s trade surplus rose 45.9 percent to 2.35 trillion yuan (around $380 billion) last year, as exports grew and imports shrank, the government announced Tuesday. Exports increased 4.9 percent to 14.3 trillion yuan in 2014, while imports fell 0.6 percent to 12.04 trillion, the General Administration of Customs said. It did not immediately provide dollar totals. Beijing, Jan 9, 2015 (AFP) Chinese inflation rebounded marginally in December, the government said Friday, but economists warned of deflationary threats and called for more monetary stimulus to boost slowing growth in the world’s second-largest economy. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.5 percent year-on-year in December, the National Bureau of Statistics announced, matching market estimates and marking an increase from a five-year low of 1.4 percent in November. But for full year 2014, consumer inflation was 2.0 percent, the bureau said, down from 2.6 percent in 2013 and well below the government’s target of about 3.5 percent. Also, the producer price index (PPI) — a measure of costs for goods at the factory gate and a leading indicator of the trend for CPI — declined for the 34th straight month. The 3.3 percent year-on-year fall was larger than the 3.1 percent median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey, and the biggest since September 2012. The last PPI increase was in January 2012. Moderate inflation can be a boon to consumption as it encourages consumers to buy before prices go up, while falling prices encourage shoppers to delay purchases and companies to put off investment, both of which can hurt growth. “Authorities need to be vigilant on the rising risk of deflation,” ANZ economists Liu Li-Gang and Zhou Hao said in a note after the data were released. China’s economy expanded 7.3 percent in the third quarter of last year, the slowest since 2009 at the height of the global financial crisis, and has showed continued weakness in the fourth quarter. “We believe the weak inflation data in December was mainly the result of falling commodity prices, worsening overcapacity in upstream industries and weak growth momentum,” Nomura economists said in a note. “We expect inflation to remain low in the coming months with concerns over deflation risks continuing to rise.” China announces fourth-quarter and annual growth figures on January 20. – Calls for action – The data suggest authorities will announce fresh monetary easing, the Nomura economists said, adding they expect the central People’s Bank of China (PBoC) to cut interest rates in the second quarter of 2015 while lowering the amount of cash banks must keep on hand once in every quarter this year. Reducing the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) increases the amount of money banks can lend out and help boost economic activity. The last full-fledged RRR cut was in May 2012, though the PBoC carried out targeted reductions last year, part of a series of “mini-stimulus” steps introduced from April when growth began to slow. The PBoC in November cut interest rates for the first time in more than two years in a bid to boost growth, though economists have said that move alone would be insufficient. Liu and Zhou of ANZ also called for more monetary stimulus. “In our view, Chinese authorities will need to use both structural reform measures as well as monetary policy tools to head off the risk of deflation, especially when domestic demand remains weak and commodity and energy prices continue to fall,” they wrote. “We therefore believe that RRR cuts, or other monetary policy easing measures with similar effects, can be expected in (the first quarter of ) 2015.” Food prices drove December’s inflation uptick, according to statistics bureau figures, rising 2.9 percent on-year from 2.3 percent in November. Nonetheless falling oil and farm commodity prices are likely to add downward pressure this year, according to Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist at Capital Economics. But he wrote in a note: “With most households and firms set to benefit from the fall in inflation, we think concerns about deflation, at least in China’s case, are overplayed.” Chinese authorities are trying to transform the country’s economy to one whereby its increasingly wealthy consumers drive growth. Chinese President Xi Jinping regularly speaks of a “new normal” in which GDP growth moderates to more sustainable levels as the country’s economy matures. BEIJING. Suku bunga repo perbankan China turun terbesar dalam dua pekan terakhir setelah dana segar kembali masuk pasar di awal tahun. Suku bunga repo tujuh hari turun 50 basis poin menjadi 4,33%, kemarin (5/1). Pada akhir tahun lalu, permintaan dana tinggi karena pengecekan dana oleh regulator serta permintaan dana menjelang liburan. Deng Haiqing, analis Citic Securities Co mengatakan, pencadangan menjelang libur mengetatkan pasar di akhir tahun. “Pekan ini, pengetatan di pasar uang mulai mereda karena tidak ada faktor yang mempengaruhi likuiditas,” kata Deng kepada Bloomberg. Melonggarnya suku bunga repo ini sedikit memberi kabar baik di tengah kondisi ekonomi China yang sedang tertekan. Indeks manufaktur dalam Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) turun ke level 50,1 pada bulan Desember 2014 dari posisi 50,3 pada bulan sebelumnya. Data resmi ini menunjukkan bahwa indeks manufaktur China berada di titik terendah dalam 1,5 tahun terakhir. Sedangkan, data PMI China keluaran HSBC Holdings Plc dan Markit Economics di level 49,6 yang menunjukkan kontraksi. PMI sektor jasa justru membaik dari 53,9 pada bulan November 2014 menjadi 54,1 pada Desember 2014 lalu. Tapi, para pengamat menduga, pertumbuhan ekonomi China sepanjang tahun lalu berada di bawah target pemerintah pada 7,5%. Analis Nomura Securities mengatakan, produksi pabrik yang tinggi menekan para produsen untuk memangkas harga. “Dengan rendahnya tekanan inflasi, kami memprediksi lebih banyak pelonggaran kebijakan pada kuartal pertama, termasuk pemangkasan rasio pencadangan perbankan sebesar 50 basis poin,” kata Nomura dalam risetnya. Chang Jian, Kepala Ekonom China di Barclays memprediksi, penurunan biaya dana masih akan menjadi prioritas kebijakan China tahun ini. Pasalnya, penurunan suku bunga acuan pada November 2014 belum banyak berdampak pada suku bunga kredit. Pertumbuhan 7,1% Standard Chartered memprediksi, pertumbuhan ekonomi China tahun ini akan melambat menjadi 7,1% dibandingkan dengan prediksi tahun lalu sebesar 7,3%. Standard Chartered mendasarkan prediksi atas tren yang terjadi tahun lalu. “Mencapai angka pertumbuhan ini tidak akan mudah karena pelemahan pasar tenaga kerja, tekanan deflasi dan tingginya suku bunga kredit,” kata Standard Chartered dalam laporannya. Angka prediksi Standard Chartered ini sejalan dengan outlook dari Bank Sentral China. People’s Bank of China (PBOC) memperkirakan, pertumbuhan ekonomi China tahun ini akan melambat menjadi 7,1%. Dalam laporan Desember 2014 yang dikutip kantor berita Xinhua, PBOC memperkirakan, pertumbuhan ekonomi China di 2014 sebesar 7,4%, sedikit di bawah target pemerintah. Sementara itu, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) meramal, pertumbuhan ekonomi tahun ini hanya 7%. Angka prediksi ini jauh di bawah rata-rata pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam 35 tahun terakhir. Pertumbuhan ekonomi tahunan rata-rata China antara 1978 hingga 2013 hampir 10%. Sedangkan, rata-rata pertumbuhan ekonomi tahunan antara 2003-2007 mencapai lebih dari 11,5%. http://internasional.kontan.co.id/news/ekonomi-china-makin-melambat (http://internasional.kontan.co.id/news/ekonomi-china-makin-melambat) Sumber : KONTAN.CO.ID grafik angka inflasi amrik 2009-2014 menunjukkan bahwa lom ada kebutuhan untuk meningkatkan suku bunga dalam waktu dekat … well, mungkin mesti tunggu waktu s/d setidaknya kuartal 2 atawa 3 2015 saat inflasi bisa naek di atas 2 % … let’s c

Look for Fed Rate Increase Mid-Year Even as Inflation Remains Mild By Michelle Jamrisko – Jan 1, 2015 Economists are slashing U.S. inflation forecasts for 2015 as oil prices tumble. What’s not changing are predictions that the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark interest rate anyway, probably around mid-year. “We’re still saying June with risks to September,” said Michael Gapen, the New York-based chief U.S. economist for Barclays Plc. The Fed “can push rates higher in the middle of the year, even though visually that may look awkward if headline inflation is around zero.” A stronger dollar (http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BBDXY:IND), slowing global growth and cheaper oil are holding down costs for goods such as televisions and autos. Fed policy makers will probably look past that and see an improving labor market that will force employers to offer higher wages. Those costs will soon push up the price of such things as rent and restaurant meals, no matter what happens overseas, giving the central bank room to raise interest rates that have been stuck near zero for six years. The personal consumption expenditure, or PCE, price index that’s the Fed’s preferred measure will be up 0.5 percent in the second quarter from the same time in 2014, Barclays economists projected on Dec. 19. That’s down from a previous forecast of 1.2 percent. The consumer-price index, a separate gauge, is projected to show a small decline in the 12 months through June. The Fed’s goal is for PCE inflation to climb around 2 percent a year. Core prices, which exclude food and fuel, will rise 1.7 percent over the same period, according to the analysis by Barclays. That compares with a previously estimated 1.9 percent.

Services Inflation “Low pass-through into core from falling energy prices, and a gradually improving labor market leads to some wage and services inflation” this year that will help assuage any concern the U.S. is catching a disinflation bug, said Gapen, a former Fed economist. Too-low inflation hurts debtors by making it harder to pay off loans. Also, the longer central banks undershoot their price targets, the more their ability to deliver stability will be questioned, undermining expectations further and putting even more downward pressure on prices. Fed Chair Janet Yellen and her colleagues probably will face a communications challenge as they pave the way for the central bank’s first interest-rate increase since 2006. Policy makers have said they believe the plunge in fuel prices will prove temporary, which will be more difficult to substantiate as inflation gauges keep sliding six months from now.

Yellen’s View Energy “is going to be pushing down headline inflation and may even spill over to some extent to core inflation,” Yellen said in a Dec. 17 news conference after the central bank’s policy meeting. “But at this point, although we indicated we’re monitoring inflation developments carefully, we see these developments as transitory.” An improving economy and labor market will help “inflation to move gradually back toward its objective,” she said. The Commerce Department reported last week that the core PCE price index climbed 1.4 in the year ended in November, which means Barclays is still projecting it will move toward the Fed’s goal, just take longer to get there. That’s probably enough from central bankers’ perspective to prompt a rate increase, said Omair Sharif (http://topics.bloomberg.com/omair-sharif/), an economist with Newedge USA LLC, a New York-based brokerage firm. “It may take three years to get back to 2 percent, but as long as we’re not going back to 1 percent, they seem OK with it,” said Sharif.

Dallas Fed Regional Fed bank gauges are signaling inflation will be slow to accelerate. The Dallas Fed’s “trimmed mean (http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/MPCEPCEY:IND)” index, which eliminates the components in the PCE price gauge that show the biggest changes in any month, increased 1.6 percent in November from a year earlier, holding within the 1.6 percent to 1.7 percent range it’s been in since April. Including food and fuel, the PCE price index rose 1.2 percent in the 12 months ended in November, the smallest gain since March, according to Commerce Department figures issued last week. The rule of thumb is that it will converge toward the trimmed mean reading over the next 12 months, pointing to a gradual pickup, according to the Dallas Fed’s report. The Dallas measure featured the biggest one-month drop in goods prices excluding food and fuel in data dating back to 1977, according to the report (http://dallasfed.org/research/pce/2014/pce1411.cfm). It was “fairly broad-based” with clothing and footwear, furnishings and household durable equipment, and recreational goods and vehicles all showing price declines of about 10 percent at an annualized rate, senior economist Jim Dolmas wrote.

Services Costs Meanwhile, core services climbed at an annualized 2.4 percent in November, exceeding the 2.2 percent advance over the past year. The increase was paced by gains in the costs of paramedical services, rent and dining out, the report showed. Economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are among those forecasting core inflation won’t show signs of moving toward the Fed’s goal this year as the upward pressure on prices from an improving economy will be more than offset by the impact of the drop in oil and stronger dollar. An appreciating currency makes goods produced by the nation’s trading partners less expensive to U.S. shoppers. The Goldman economists maintain that September will be the most likely month for the Fed to begin raising rates even as they now project the core PCE price index will rise 1.3 percent by the second quarter, down from a prior estimate of 1.5 percent.

Goldman’s View If it’s lower than 1.5 percent by June, as they predict, and wages show only a modest pickup, then the central bank will probably hold off, Jan Hatzius (http://topics.bloomberg.com/janhatzius/), Goldman’s New York-based chief economist, wrote in a Dec. 26 note. Should inflation undershoot even their below-consensus forecast, the Fed could wait until 2016, he said. While Barclays’s Gapen acknowledges a rate liftoff could be delayed, the Fed has to make decisions based on where policy makers think the economy and inflation will be in 12 to 18 months, he said. And by June, the jobless rate already will be close to the 5.2 percent to 5.5 percent that Fed officials say is consistent with full employment, a sign bigger pay increases are in store. “If you can run the domestic economy hot enough, then you can have services inflation that offsets a weak global backdrop,” said Gapen. “What we would be looking for is just broad-based services inflation related to wages.” (Reuters) – The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting the labor market continued to strengthen. While other data on Thursday showed factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region braked sharply in December, that followed hefty gains in the prior month and analysts said manufacturing remained on solid ground. “The economy (http://bit.ly/1stXo9F) continues to run hard as it finishes out the year,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank in New York. WASHINGTON, Dec 17, 2014 (AFP) President Barack Obama on Tuesday signed a spending bill to keep most of the federal government funded for almost a year, the White House said. Obama signed the act “which provides fiscal year 2015 full-year appropriations through September 30, 2015 for all agencies except the Department of Homeland Security, for which appropriations are provided instead through February 27, 2015,” White House spokesman John Earnest said. On Saturday, Congress passed a $1.1-trillion spending bill for fiscal year 2015, capping a week of acrimonious wrangling while averting a government shutdown and sending the measure to Obama. By funding the Department of Homeland Security until only February, it sets up a showdown over Obama’s controversial immigration plan early next year, when a Congress under full Republican control will take another shot at rolling back Obama’s executive order shielding millions from deportation. The battle over funding has been a bruiser. It included a revolt by House Democrats that nearly sank the measure last week, and procedural delay tactics in the Senate. Congress needed to pass funding extensions twice in as many days to keep government from tumbling into a shutdown, as leaders struggled to get the funding across the finish line and bid farewell to the 113th Congress, one of the least productive sessions in modern history. BEIJING, Dec 16, 2014 (AFP) Foreign investment into China accelerated in November, government data showed Tuesday, despite a worsening slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy and concerns over business risks. Foreign direct investment (FDI) — which excludes financial sectors — rose 22.2 percent year-on-year, the commerce ministry said, totalling $10.36 billion. The figure compares with an increase of 1.3 percent in October to $8.53 billion. FDI had hit a four-year-low in August of $7.20 billion. For the first 11 months of 2014, FDI amounted to $106.24 billion, the ministry said, an increase of 0.7 percent year-on-year. “Investment from major countries and regions was generally stable,” commerce ministry spokesman Shen Danyang said. Chinese authorities have this year launched anti-monopoly, pricing and other inquiries into foreign firms in sectors ranging from auto manufacturing and pharmaceuticals to baby milk, fuelling fears Beijing is targeting them, a charge the commerce ministry repeatedly denies. China’s appeal as an investment destination has also been declining in recent years owing to rising labour and land costs and competition from other Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam. Officials have also blamed source country factors, such as Washington’s drive to move industrial production back to the United States. China’s economy expanded 7.3 percent in the July-September quarter, slower than the 7.5 percent expansion in the previous three months and the worst result since 2009 at the height of the global financial crisis. In the first 11 months, FDI fell 39.7 percent from Japan to $4.08 billion, 22.2 percent from the US to $2.46 billion, 9.8 percent from the European Union (EU) to $6.17 billion, and 23.6 percent from the ASEAN group of Southeast Asian countries to $5.87 billion. British investment, meanwhile, jumped 28 percent to $1.25 billion, while that from South Korea increased 22.9 percent to $3.59 billion. Investment by Chinese companies overseas, meanwhile, fell in November for the second consecutive month, the ministry said. Overseas direct investment (ODI) was down 26.1 percent year-on-year in November at $7.92 billion and stood at $89.8 billion for the first 11 months, up 11.9 percent. ODI had fallen 12.2 percent in October to $6.92 billion after soaring 90.5 percent in September to $9.79 billion. China has been actively acquiring foreign assets, particularly energy and resources, to power its economy, with firms encouraged to “go out” and make overseas acquisitions to gain market access and international experience. Officials have said outward investment could exceed FDI this year, though with just one month to go that looks increasingly unlikely given the current position and trends. Over the 11-month period, Chinese investment into the US rose 27.1 percent to $4.64 billion, the ministry said. Without providing total amounts, the ministry also said that investment to the EU nearly tripled, that to Japan rose 80 percent, while to Hong Kong it increased 13.3 percent. It added that investment to Australia fell 29.8 percent during the period, while to Russia it dropped 76.7 percent and to ASEAN 3.8 percent. HONG KONG, Dec 10, 2014 (AFP) Hong Kong stocks edged up Wednesday after a two-day sell-off, while Shanghai rebounded strongly from the previous day’s slump as more weak Chinese inflation data fuelled hopes for further easing measures. The Hang Seng Index added 0.16 percent, or 38.69 points, to 23,524.52 on turnover of HK$109.93 billion ($14.18 billion). The Shanghai composite index, which slumped 5.43 percent Tuesday, surged 2.93 percent, or 83.74 points, to 2,940.01 on turnover of 535.0 billion yuan ($87.4 billion). The Shenzhen Composite Index, which tracks stocks on China’s second exchange, added 3.50 percent, or 49.14 points, to 1,452.53 on turnover of 304.6 billion yuan. SHANGHAI, Dec 09, 2014 (AFP) Shanghai shares plunged more than five percent on profit-taking Tuesday, only a day after the benchmark composite index broke the 3,000 mark for the first time in more than three years. The index closed down 5.43 percent, or 163.99 points, at 2,856.27 on record turnover of 793.4 billion yuan ($128.2 billion). The Shenzhen Composite Index, which tracks stocks on China’s second exchange, sank 4.31 percent, or 63.26 points, to 1,403.39 on turnover of 450.5 billion yuan. Chinese shares have surged in recent weeks, with the Shanghai index rising more than 20 percent in the month to Monday’s close, helped by a surprise interest rate cut on November 21. The climb came despite signs of slowing economic growth, and was driven by expectations of further policy easing measures in response to more bad economic news. But investors took profits Tuesday after authorities announced a new rule late Monday tightening the use of corporate bonds as collateral for short-term financing — a move analysts said will curb investors’ ability to trade on margin. In a commentary Monday on the rising markets the official Xinhua news agency had warned: “For individual investors, who significantly outnumber institutional investors in domestic exchanges, greed now appears to triumph fear, with extraordinary, if not maniacal, numbers of new account openings and purchases that had not been seen for years. “Should trends reverse, the volatility must not be understated.” Combined turnover reached a record 1.2 trillion yuan on Tuesday. The Shanghai volume was also an all-time high, analysts said. BEIJING, Dec 01, 2014 (AFP) China’s manufacturing growth skidded to an eight-month low in November, an official survey showed Monday, signalling further downward pressure on the world’s second-largest economy. China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released by the National Bureau of Statistics came in at 50.3 last month, lower than the 50.8 recorded in October and the weakest since a similar 50.3 reading in March. The index, which tracks activity in factories and workshops, is considered a key indicator of the health of China’s economy, a major driver of global growth. A figure above 50 signals expansion, while anything below indicates contraction. The results came after a closely watched private survey fell to a six-month low and showed manufacturing stagnating. British bank HSBC’s preliminary PMI for November came in at the 50.0 breakeven point dividing expansion and contraction, the bank said last month. It was lower than October’s 50.4 and the weakest reading since May’s 49.4. HSBC is scheduled to release its final reading for November on Monday. China’s central bank last month unexpectedly cut benchmark interest rates for the first time in more than two years, as authorities seek to prop up flagging growth. The cut came after a string of disappointing data showed the Chinese economy is struggling with not just stalling factory growth, but other problems including soft exports and a weakening property market. China’s economy expanded 7.3 percent in the July-September quarter, down from 7.5 percent in the previous three months and the slowest since 2009 at the height of the global financial crisis. The People’s Bank of China on November 21 lowered its one-year rate for deposits by 25 basis points to 2.75 percent and its one-year lending rate by 40 basis points to 5.6 percent, a statement said. China’s housing prices fell on a monthly basis for the seventh straight month in November, a survey showed Sunday, as the country’s property market weighs on growth. The average price of a new home in China’s 100 major cities was 10,589 yuan ($1,720) per square metre in November, down 0.38 percent from October, the independent China Index Academy said in a statement. The fall was a slight improvement from the 0.40 percent month-on-month drop in October, previous figures showed. Liputan6.com, Singapura – Bursa saham Asia menguat di awal pekan setelah indeks saham Amerika Serikat (AS) mencapai rekor. Selain itu, China juga memotong suku bunga (http://bisnis.liputan6.com/read/2137397/meskipun-bi-rate-naik-bank-mandiri-tak-mau-kerek-bunga-kredit)sehingga memicu optimisme ekonomi global. Indeks saham MSCI Asia Pacific, indeks saham acuan regional menguat 0,5 persen menjadi 475,75 pada pukul 09.02 waktu Seoul, Korea Selatan. Penguatan indeks saham itu didorong dari indeks saham Korea Selatan Kospi menguat 1 persen. Indeks saham Australia mendaki 1,4 persen. Sedangkan indeks saham Selandia Baru sedikit baru. Sementara itu, bursa saham Jepang libur hari ini memperingati hari Labour Thanksgiving. Indeks saham Hong Kong Hang Seng futures menguat 2,1 persen. Bursa saham Asia dipengaruhi sentimen langkah kebijakan pemangkasan suku bunga bank acuan oleh bank sentral China (http://bisnis.liputan6.com/read/2138327/ekonomi-china-bakaltekan-ihsg)pada pekan lalu. Bank sentral China memangkas suku bunga acuan untuk pertama kalinya sejak Juli 2012 telah meningkatkan dukungan bagi perekonomian terbesar kedua di dunia ini. Suku bunga pinjaman berkurang 0,4 persen menjadi 5,6 persen. Sedangkan suku bunga deposito diturunkan 0,25 persen menjadi 2,75 persen. Langkah bank sentral China ini mengikuti arah bank sentral Eropa dan Bank of Japan (BoJ) untuk meningkatkan stimulus baru. “Stimulus telah memperbaiki pasar saham selama enam tahun terakhir, dan ada sinyal ini akan terus diperjuangkan pasar. Sekarang tiga dari empat bank sentral terbesar di dunia aktif meransang masing-masing ekonomi domestik,” ujar Evan Lucas, Market Strategist IG Ltd, seperti dikutip dari Bloomberg, Senin (24/11/2014). Sementara itu, Head of Dynamic Asset Allocation AMP Capital Investors Ltd, Nader Naeimi menuturkan, bank-bank sentral dapat menjadi agresif dalam memangkas suku bunga (http://bisnis.liputan6.com/read/2136974/suku-bunga-acuan-naik-bi-harus-siapkan-antisipasi-di-awal-tahun)karena inflasi tidak menjadi masalah. “Kami telah mendapatkan kejutan dari bank sentral. Ada kesempatan untuk melihat langkah dari bank sentral Eropa segera,” kata Nader. (Ahm/) HONG KONG, Nov 16, 2014 (AFP) The stock exchanges of Hong Kong and Shanghai on Monday launch a much-anticipated trading link that will see billions of dollars in daily cross-border transactions and partially open up China’s closeted equities markets to the world. After weeks of delays the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect finally kicks off, giving international investors access to companies in the world’s number two economy, while allowing mainland investors to trade shares in Hong Kong. The link-up, which was described by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) as a “milestone”, is seen as a key step towards greater financial liberalisation in China’s economy as its leaders embark on a slow process of reform. “It definitely is a game changer, it brings a new dimension to the market and new dynamics as well,” Jackson Wong, associate director for Simsen International Financial Group in Hong Kong, told AFP, calling it a “win-win” situation. “If all this goes well, China will probably put in more financial products, not only stocks,” he said, explaining that foreign investors currently can only participate in the limited trading of Chinese financial products. “The whole programme will attract more foreign funds. When you have more funds, that will help the stocks on both exchanges.” – Strict controls remain – The scheme is expected to allow the equivalent of $3.8 billion a day in cross-border transactions. China’s premier Li Keqiang announced plans for the project in April as part of Beijing’s push to liberalise its economy and gradually to make the yuan more freely convertible. But it is subject to strict limits in order to preserve capital controls in China, where Communist authorities keep a tight grip on the yuan currency. If an investor buys stocks in the other market, when they sell the money can only go back to their home market account, a so-called “closed path” to prevent “hot money” leaking out. Beijing has granted an initial cumulative quota of 250 billion yuan ($41 billion) for trading of Hong Kong stocks, while 300 billion yuan will be allowed for the Shanghai market, with daily allowances of 10.5 and 13 billion yuan respectively. In preparation for the launch the HKMA, Hong Kong’s de facto central bank, on Wednesday said it would lift a daily cap for converting the local dollar to yuan to facilitate the trading link. Analysts say the lifting of the limit will bring easier access to renminbi for local residents and encourage investors to use the currency. The scheme is a long time in the making. A similar idea, the stock “Through Train”, was floated in 2007 but derailed because of the global financial crisis. And the latest plan was due to kick off last month but was delayed, with technical issues blamed. However, while there is big interest in the programme, some Chinese traders are reticent. “The two markets differ in terms of trading rules and time, so there’s going to be a process of mutual adaptation,” Jiang Shiqing, a Shanghai-based strategist with Industrial Securities told AFP. “At (the) current stage, I have no intention (of buying Hong Kong stocks through the scheme). I want to put my limited funds in a market I’m more familiar with,” Steven Zhou, an investor based in the eastern Chinese city of Wuxi, said. BEIJING, Nov 11, 2014 (AFP) A summit of Asia-Pacific leaders supported a China-backed “roadmap” towards a vast free trade area, Chinese President Xi Jinping said Tuesday. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit “approved the roadmap for APEC to promote and realise the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific”, Xi said at the close of the Beijing meeting, adding the move “symbolises the official launch of the process towards the FTAAP”. WASHINGTON, Nov 03, 2014 (AFP) The US manufacturing sector picked up speed in October after a dull September, with companies reporting rising orders and more job creation, but a significant slowdown in price gains, according to data released Monday. The Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing managers index for last month jumped to 59.0 from 56.6 the previous month, though that put it back at the same level as in August. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion. Out of 18 industries in the survey, the ISM reported that only one said activity contracted last month — the petroleum and coal product sector. The index component for new orders jumped to 65.8 from 60.0, and production sped up slightly to 64.8 from 64.6. Employment in the sector also grew faster, the sub-index rising to 55.5 from 54.6. Manufacturers also reported a slowly growing backlog of orders, after order books shrank in September. A survey respondent in the food and beverage industry said orders ahead of the year-end holiday season “are exceeding seasonal forecasts” and that customers “are demanding additional quantities above prior orders.” A respondent in the computer industry called October “another strong month in terms of business growth.” NEW YORK, Oct 22, 2014 (AFP) The dollar gained against other major currencies Wednesday after a slight but unexpected rise in US inflation, while the market continued to speculate about eurozone monetary policy. US consumer prices rose slightly in September, with the consumer price index (CPI) up 0.1 percent, the Labor Department said. Analysts had expected prices to remain unchanged from August, when they fell 0.2 percent for the first time in a year and a half. Excluding food and energy, prices still rose 0.1 percent in September. The rise in US consumer prices “is probably what drew the most attention in the market today, supporting a little the dollar against the euro and the yen,” said Vassili Serebriakov of BNP Paribas in New York. Year-over-year, the CPI remained steady at 1.7 percent in September, well below the Federal Reserve’s 2.0 percent inflation goal for price stability. “The headline surprisingly rose, and some of the components edged higher but overall, inflation remains in control and the core measure remains below the Fed’s two percent watch,” said Jennifer Lee, senior economist at BMO Economics. Rumors that the European Central Bank could step up its monetary stimulus, including by buying corporate bonds, continued to percolate. A member of the ECB’s decision-making governing council, Belgium National Bank chief Luc Coene, said on Wednesday that several of his colleagues had mentioned the idea of buying corporate bonds but that it had yet to be seriously discussed. “Investors remain hooked on declarations or rumors swirling around the central banks,” noted Franklin Pichard, director of Barclays Bourse in Paris. Possible action of the ECB would have what it takes “to restore a semblance of optimism in an uncertain world,” he added.

 2100 GMT Wednesday Tuesday EUR/USD 1.2643 1.2714 EUR/JPY 135.46 136.04 EUR/CHF 1.2060 1.2068 EUR/GBP 0.7878 0.7890 USD/JPY 107.14 106.99 USD/CHF 0.9538 0.9490 GBP/USD 1.6049 1.6113 

BEIJING, Oct 21, 2014 (AFP) China’s economy expanded 7.3 percent year-on-year in July-September, official data showed Tuesday, slumping to a five-year low despite official efforts to shore up growth the world’s second-largest economy. The third-quarter figure announced by the National Bureau of Statistics was lower than expansion of 7.5 percent in the previous three months, but exceeded the median forecast of 7.2 percent in an AFP survey of 17 economists. INILAHCOM, New York – Rilis data ekonomiGDP Chinapasca penutupan Wall Street) kemarin (21/10, WIB) dapat mempengaruhi pasar hari ini. Tapi pasar berharap akan ada sentimen positif dari Negeri Tirai Bambu itu. Menurut data polling Reuters, ekonomi China pada periode Januari-September diperkirakan akan tumbuh 7,2%. Pertumbuhan ini menjadi yang paling RENDAH sejak kuartal pertama 2009. Juga lebih rendah dbandingkan pertumbuhan pada tiga bulan sebelumnya yang naik 7,5%. Kemarin Wall Street ditutup menguat, setelah Apple melaporkan kenaikan earningnya sebesar 1,9%. Kenaikan ini mengkompensasi penurunan saham IBM yang anjlok sebesar 7,4% karena earnings kuartal ketiganya berada di bawah estimasi. Kenaikan saham Apple ini menghapus penurunan DJIA yang 119 poin. Pada saat pasar ditutup, Nasdaq juga menguat 1,4%. (edm) NEW YORK, Oct 16, 2014 (AFP) The dollar rallied against the euro and the yen Thursday, after newly-released data suggested the US economy remains comparatively strong. The Department of Labor reported that initial US jobless claims for the week ending October 11 fell to 264,000, the lowest level since 2000. Then the Federal Reserve said US industrial production rose a robust 1.0 percent in September, recovering from an unexpected drop in August. The two reports helped counteract disappointing data earlier in the week, including a poor September retail sales report that pushed the dollar lower Wednesday. The move Wednesday came as traders perceived a higher chance the Federal Reserve would wait longer before raising benchmark interest rates. “Any delay in expected monetary normalization by the Fed will indeed hurt the dollar,” said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange. “However, the dollar is likely to remain underpinned by the view that America’s economy remains the ‘cleanest shirt in the hamper’.”

 2100 Thursday Wednesday EUR/USD 1.2809 1.2834 EUR/JPY 136.19 135.94 EUR/CHF 1.2072 1.2065 EUR/GBP 0.7959 0.8012 USD/JPY 106.33 105.91 USD/CHF 0.9425 0.9400 GBP/USD 1.6091 1.6015 

BEIJING, Oct 15, 2014 (AFP) Inflation in China fell to 1.6 percent in September, the government said Wednesday, below analysts’ forecasts and the lowest in the world’s second-largest economy for almost five years. The consumer price index (CPI) figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics represented a slowdown in year-on-year inflation from 2.0 percent in August. It was the lowest since January 2010. Analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires had predicted 1.7 percent. The figures fall well short of the 3.5 percent annual target set by the government in March, and signal that deflationary pressures are rising. Moderate inflation can be a boon to consumption as it encourages consumers to buy before prices go up, while falling prices encourage shoppers to delay purchases and companies to put off investment, both of which can weigh on growth. The latest figures give authorities more room to take steps to stimulate the economy, as statistics suggest that Chinese expansion — which stood at 7.7 percent last year, maintaining its slowest pace in more than a decade — is weakening. “China’s soft inflation profile heightens the risk of deflation, thus requiring further monetary policy easing,” ANZ analysts said in a research note. They attributed the sluggish price increases to the country’s ongoing fight against corruption and a government austerity drive. “The anti-graft campaign could have significantly eased upward pressures on prices. Notably… the price of tobacco and liquors has dropped to negative territory since September 2013,” they said, referring to arguably the two most popular gifts in the country. – Growth concerns – China’s exports and imports both rose more than expected in September, Customs data showed Monday in a positive signal, but analysts warned that fundamentals remained weak. Industrial production growth slowed sharply in August to its lowest level for more than five years, official data showed last month, while house prices have fallen for five consecutive months. Officials are targeting economic growth of “about 7.5 percent” this year, the same as last year’s objective. The goal is normally exceeded, but senior officials have repeatedly sought to play down its significance this year. China’s third-quarter gross domestic product figures are due next week. Last week the World Bank cut its forecast for Chinese growth to 7.4 percent for 2014 and 7.2 percent for 2015. The International Monetary Fund left its predictions unchanged at 7.4 percent and 7.1 percent, but warned of “near-term growth risks”, especially in real estate. China’s vast and crucial property sector is struggling in the face of oversupply. A sharp slowdown in food price increases, from 3.0 percent in August to 2.3 percent in September, drove the inflation decline, the NBS said. But some economists were less concerned about deflation. Julian Evans-Pritchard, an analyst with research firm Capital Economics, said China’s inflation remains highly sensitive to pork prices, which are set to rise. “We still expect inflation to edge up again over the coming quarters, though it is unlikely (to) pick up enough to become a policy concern,” he said in a report. China’s producer price index (PPI) — a measure of costs for goods at the factory gate and a leading indicator of the trend for CPI — fell 1.8 percent year-on-year in September, the NBS said separately. The last PPI increase was in January 2012, when it rose 0.7 percent. BEIJING, Oct 13, 2014 (AFP) China’s trade surplus more than doubled to $31.0 billion in September, official data showed Monday, as exports jumped while imports increased at a slower rate. Exports rose 15.3 percent year-on-year to $213.7 billion, the General Administration of Customs announced, while imports climbed 7.0 percent to $182.7 billion.

American Exceptionalism Thrives Amid Struggling Global Economy By Rich Miller and Simon Kennedy bloomberg – Oct 4, 2014 The U.S. is proving to be an oasis of prosperity in the midst of a troubled world economy. Unemployment (USURTOT) (http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USURTOT:IND) dropped to a six-year low of 5.9 percent in September as payrolls rose by a greater-than-forecast 248,000, a Labor Department report showed yesterday. Other data this week showed U.S. factories (http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NAPMPMI:IND) had their strongest quarter in more than three years, while exports (http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USTBEXP:IND) rose to a record in August. St. Louis-based Macroeconomic Advisers bumped up its estimate of third-quarter growth to 3.3 percent, from 2.8 percent, after government data published yesterday showed the U.S. trade deficit (http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USTBTOT:IND) shrank in August to its lowest level in seven months. “The internal dynamics of the economy are very strong right now,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist in Lexington, Massachusetts (http://topics.bloomberg.com/massachusetts/), for consultants IHS Inc. “We can withstand a lot of shocks.” U.S. stocks rose with the dollar as the jobs data boosted confidence in the economy. After weakening earlier in the week on concerns about global growth, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1.1 percent to 1,967.9 yesterday in New York. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed to a four-year high. The solid performance by the U.S. contrasts with what’s happening in much of the rest of the world. The euro area’s economy stagnated in the second quarter and is suffering from the softest inflation in five years, while a consumer-tax increase in Japan (http://topics.bloomberg.com/japan/) triggered its biggest economic contraction since 2009.

China Undershoots China’s economy, which helped bring advanced economies out of the recession in 2009, this year may undershoot the government’s growth target of about 7.5 percent amid a property slump and the slowest expansion in factory output in five years. “Matters can be described as American exceptionalism,” said Larry Hatheway, chief economist at UBS AG in London. “The U.S. is the only large economic bloc experiencing an acceleration of growth, preparing for a tightening of monetary policy and enjoying an appreciating currency.” The divergence leaves foreign finance chiefs open to criticism from U.S. officials when they all gather in Washington next week for the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. White House economic adviser Jeffrey Zients this week identified Europe as the U.S.’s “number one area” of economic concern and said its policies are “too tight.” The U.S. isn’t immune to the weaknesses evident elsewhere, of course. After August’s strong trade numbers, a coming slowdown in U.S. exports and a rise in imports will probably clip about a quarter percentage point off U.S. growth, according to David Stockton, a former director of economic research at the Federal Reserve.

Positive Outlook Still, the U.S. outlook remains “relatively positive,” said Stockton, now a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington (http://topics.bloomberg.com/washington/). He sees the economy expanding at about a 3 percent annual rate through the end of next year, markedly faster than the 2.2 percent pace it has averaged since the end of the recession in June 2009. That’s also much stronger than Stockton’s forecast of 2015 growth of 1.1 percent in the euro area and 1.5 percent in Japan. Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan coined the term “oasis of prosperity” in the late 1990s as he pondered the ability of the U.S. economy to thrive while much of the rest of the world was suffering, particularly crisis-hit Asia.

Excess Debt Now, the U.S. is breaking away from the rest of the world partly because it has made more progress in working off the debt-driven excesses that helped precipitate the worst recession since the Great Depression. Only the U.S. and Germany (http://topics.bloomberg.com/germany/) among major economies have reduced total public and private debt as a share of GDP since 2007, according to data compiled by the McKinsey Global Institute. The others are still wrestling with the consequences of too much credit. Japan went ahead with its consumption-tax increase earlier this year in a first step toward tackling its huge government debt. China is struggling to rein in a shadow banking sector composed of trusts, leasing companies and other less-regulated financial firms. And banks in the euro area are waiting to see how they fared in asset reviews and stress tests carried out by their regulators.

Deleveraging Process “The U.S. is probably three-quarters of the way through its deleveraging process, maybe even more,” Behravesh said. “Europe is probably not even at the half-way point and China (http://topics.bloomberg.com/china/) is just starting.” A combination of reduced debt and rising stock and property prices boosted U.S. household net worth (http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NWORVALU:IND) to a record $81.5 trillion in the second quarter from a low of $55 trillion in the last recession, according to data from the Fed. Companies in the S&P 500 Index are the healthiest in decades, with the lowest net debt to earnings ratio in at least 24 years, $3.59 trillion in cash and marketable securities, and record earnings per share. The improved balance sheets are allowing households and corporations to step up their spending. Consumer outlays rebounded in August as employment gains revived household earnings growth and encouraged Americans to return to shops and car dealerships. The 0.5 percent increase in purchases exceeded forecasts and followed little change in July, Commerce Department data showed.

Capital Investment Companies are putting their profits to work by increasing capital investment. Orders for non-military capital goods excluding aircraft rose 0.6 percent in August after a 0.2 percent drop the previous month, according to separate Commerce Department figures. President Barack Obama (http://topics.bloomberg.com/barack-obama/) trumpeted America’s success in a speech Oct. 2 at Northwestern University in Evanston, Illinois (http://topics.bloomberg.com/illinois/). “Our economy isn’t just primed for steadier, more sustained growth,” Obama said. “America is better poised to lead and succeed in the 21st century than any other nation on Earth.” Kevin Brady, chairman of the Congressional Joint Economic Committee and a Republican lawmaker from Texas (http://topics.bloomberg.com/texas/), took issue with Obama’s upbeat assessment of the economy under his stewardship. “He can spin it as much as he likes, but the worst recovery of President Obama’s life is his own,” Brady said in a press statement released yesterday. The divergent world economy has monetary policy makers around the globe moving in different directions. Fed Chair Janet Yellen and her colleagues are on course to wrap up their bond purchase program next month, while European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said Oct. 2 that his institution will be buying assets for at least two more years. Yesterday’s jobs numbers underscore the differences between the U.S. and elsewhere, according to Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. “It simply reinforces the now-glaring theme of divergence between the robust U.S. expansion and fading activity in much of the rest of the world,” Porter wrote in a note to clients. wsj The U.S. economy is regaining traction as the year winds down, boosted by an accelerating business sector and a modest pickup among consumers. (https://iaminvestor.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/tren-gdp-amrik-2005_2014-q2.jpg) Growth appears poised to post a healthy performance of more than 3% in the current quarter, according to several major forecasters, following a choppy first half of the year. Gross domestic product (http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm), the broadest measure of goods and services produced in the U.S., grew at an annual rate of 4.6% in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said Friday in its third estimate of the gauge. That replaced the agency’s previous 4.2% reading and equaled the strongest quarter of the five-year-old recovery, matching the final three months of 2011. The latest reading, along with other recent economic reports, make the first quarter’s 2.1% contraction look increasingly like a weather-driven anomaly. Growth has exceeded 3.5% for three of the past four quarters. If expansion greater than 3% materializes for the third quarter, that would mark the strongest stretch of economic growth since 2004 to 2005, the height of the last decade’s expansion.

Related Video The U.S. economy looks up as data released shows the second quarter GDP grew. WSJ’s Joshua Mitchell reports on Lunch Break with Tanya Rivero. Photo: Getty

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Fall 18.2% in August (http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-durable-goods-orders-fell-18-2-in-august-1411648278) U.S. Jobless Claims Rise 12,000 in Latest Week (http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-jobless-claims-rise-12-000-in-latest-week-1411648424) U.S. New-Home Sales Surge 18% in August (http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-new-home-sales-surge-18-in-august-1411567310) Payroll Withholdings Show Firming Economy (http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/09/26/one-good-sign-the-economy-is-staying-strong-your-payroll-tax-withholdings/) Fed Plots Cautious Course on Rate Hikes (http://online.wsj.com/articles/fed-rate-hike-view-still-eyes-2015-1410977029) Sign Up: Get Capital Journal Daybreak (http://online.wsj.com/public/page/email-setup.html?sub=capital_journal_daybreak) But the recovery remains remarkably uneven, with businesses showing buoyancy while consumers limp along. After-tax corporate profits climbed at the fastest pace in two years in April through June. Businesses stepped up investment, including on construction of facilities, a trend they appear to have carried into the fall. Consumers are stepping up spending only modestly, as a surge in job growth this year has yet to translate into significantly higher wages. Meanwhile, a soft global economy continues to weigh on the U.S. as sagging growth in Europe and Asia restrains American exports. “The economy’s doing all right now, but it’s not off to the races,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc. “The preponderance of evidence is that we’re in a moderate-growth situation.” Still, there are signs of building momentum. The pickup in business investment—reinforced by a report this week showing higher spending on equipment—reflects companies’ growing confidence in the long-term outlook. That could presage a broader economic acceleration that would eventually filter down to workers. Pirtek USA, which repairs hydraulic hoses in construction and manufacturing equipment, is seeing signs of an accelerating economy. Company sales have risen 20% this year compared with a year earlier because of an increase in home construction and manufacturing activity, said Gwyn O’Kane, vice president of franchise development. The company also is benefitting from loose credit conditions by banks, allowing more people to borrow to open franchises, he said. The company plans to open its 49th and 50th franchises in the U.S. by the end of this year. “The economy’s improving to the point where we can grow really fast,” Mr. O’Kane said. http://graphics.wsj.com/SUPERPROMO/? height=369&size=g&src=source%3F&subtitle=&title=View+interactive&bigimg=http%3A%2F%2Fs.wsj.net%2Fpublic%2Fresources%2Fimages%2FBNBN208_FORECA_G_20140213152550.jpg&destination=http%3A%2F%2Fprojects.wsj.com%2Feconforecast%2F&= (http://graphics.wsj.com/SUPERPROMO/? height=369&size=g&src=source%3F&subtitle=&title=View+interactive&bigimg=http%3A%2F%2Fs.wsj.net%2Fpublic%2Fresources%2Fimages%2FBNBN208_FORECA_G_20140213152550.jpg&destination=http%3A%2F%2Fprojects.wsj.com%2Feconforecast%2F&=) The Federal Reserve believes stronger growth is ahead as it winds down a bond-buying program next month and moves closer to raising short-term interest rates—both tools that have been designed to stimulate growth. Fed officials believe that as unemployment comes down, companies will have to compete for a dwindling pool of available workers and thus pay them more. The economy’s performance for the rest of the year will hinge in large part on continued improvement in the labor market. Job growth has averaged more than 200,000 a month this year, a boost from last year’s pace. But that pace slowed in August, with employers adding just 142,000 jobs. Wages are still only growing at about the same pace as consumer-price inflation, a sign of continued slack in the labor market. Corrections & Amplifications Employers added 142,000 jobs in August. An earlier version of this article incorrectly said they added 146,000 jobs. WASHINGTON, Sept 19, 2014 (AFP) Ratings agency Fitch on Friday said the United States still deserves its triple-A credit rating, with its solid financial system able to bear a high level of public debt. “The economy is large, rich and diverse, with GDP per capita (at purchasing power parity) and levels of human development above the ‘AAA’ median,” Fitch said. JAKARTA- China menyuntikkan dana sebesar 500 miliar yuan (US$81 miliar) ke sejumlah bank terbesar negara itu sebagai isyarat kekhawatiran mendalam atas pelemahan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Menurut satu pejabat yang tidak mau disebutkan namanya, People’s Bank of China akan menyuntikkan dana sebanyak 100 miliar yuan untuk setiap lima bank terbesar di China selama tiga bulan sebagaimana dikutip Bloomberg, Rabu (17/9/2014). Ekspansi kredit itu dilakukan untuk memacu pertumbuhan melalui sejumlah kebijakan sambil menyetop stimulus fiskal dan moneter yang meningkatkan bahaya pinjaman bermasalah. China bersama Bank Sentral Eropa menambah likuiditas, sementara AS bersiap untuk memperketat stimulus. “Pelonggaran terbatas itu berada di bawah pengawasan bank sentral,” ujar Helen Qiao, ekonom pada Morgan Stanley sebagaimana dikutip Bloomberg, Rabu (17/9/2014). Menurutnya, para pembuat kebijakan tengah menahan tekanan ekonomi untuk memangkas tingkat bunga dengan memilih pelonggaran bersyarat. Saham perbankan di Hong Kong mengalami reli, sedangkan pelemahan yuan yang sudah berlangsung selama empat hari tertahan. Pasa sisi lain, tingkat bunga swap turun ke level terendah sejak Juni. Source : Bloomberg http://news.bisnis.com/read/20140917/18/257951/ekonomi-china-suntik-dana-us81-miliar-ke-bank-besar-simak-strategi-rrt- (http://news.bisnis.com/read/20140917/18/257951/ekonomi-chinasuntik-dana-us81-miliar-ke-bank-besar-simak-strategi-rrt-) Sumber : BISNIS.COM BEIJING, Sept 16, 2014 (AFP) China’s outbound investment more than doubled in August to $12.62 billion, data showed Tuesday, far outstripping foreign direct investment (FDI) into the country, which fell to a four-year low. China has been actively acquiring foreign assets, particularly energy and resources, to power its economy, with firms encouraged to “go out” and make overseas acquisitions to gain market access and international experience. Officials have said overseas direct investment (ODI) could exceed FDI this year. The 112.1 percent year-on-year increase in ODI announced by the commerce ministry was a dramatic contrast to the 14.0 percent fall in FDI, which sank to $7.20 billion. Both sets of figures exclude investment in financial sectors. FDI was also less than July’s $7.81 billion and was the lowest since July 2010, when it stood at $6.92 billion. Commerce ministry spokesman Shen Danyang denied any link to Beijing’s multiple probes into foreign companies. Chinese authorities have in recent months launched anti-monopoly, pricing and other inquiries into scores of foreign firms in sectors ranging from auto manufacturing and pharmaceuticals to baby milk. The investigations have raised concerns among investors that Beijing is targeting overseas companies. But Shen denied any connection between the investigations and the fall in FDI. “They are not related,” he said, declining to comment further. But he added that China plans to revise three laws governing overseas companies and Sino-foreign joint ventures. “By revising the laws, we hope to… create a more stable, transparent and predictable legal environment for foreign investment in China,” he told reporters. For the first eight months of the year, China’s ODI was up 15.3 percent at $65.17 billion. In that period, investment into the EU soared 257.1 percent, leaped 116.7 percent into Japan, and increased 73.3 percent into Russia, the ministry said without giving totals. It climbed 16.0 percent into the US, reaching $3.26 billion. Ministry officials were unable to explain immediately the huge monthly increase. Also in the first eight months, FDI was down 1.8 percent year-on-year at $78.34 billion. It slumped 43.3 percent from Japan — which is embroiled in territorial and historic rows with Beijing — to $3.16 billion, fell 17.9 percent from the EU to $4.20 billion, and dropped 16.9 percent from the US to $2.08 billion. But from South Korea — which has been enjoying closer diplomatic ties with China — it climbed 31.3 percent to $3.02 billion, and from Britain it rose 18.9 percent to $850 million. China’s economy expanded 7.7 percent in 2013, the same as 2012 — the worst pace since 7.6 percent in 1999. Beijing’s official growth target for this year is 7.5 percent, also the same as in 2013, while gross domestic product grew 7.4 percent in the first half of this year. NEW YORK kontan. Mayoritas saham yang diperdagangkan di bursa AS dibuka melorot pagi ini (12/9) waktu setempat. Berdasarkan data Bloomberg, pada pukul 09.48 waktu New York, indeks Standard & Poor’s 500 turun 0,3% menjadi 1.990,76. Sedangkan indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average turun 0,3% menjadi 16.993,61. Penurunan juga terjadi pada indeks Nasdaq sebesar 0,5%. Pergerakan sejumlah saham turut mempengaruhi bursa AS. Beberapa di antaranya yakni: Caterpillar Inc yang turun 0,8%, Conversant Inc naik 31%, dam Hertz Global Holdings Inc naik 2%. Sementara itu, jika dilihat secara sektoral, sektor energi mencatatkan penurunan 0,7%. Dengan demikian, penurunan sektor ini lima hari terakhir mencapai 2,9%. Kenaikan bursa AS masih terdongkrak spekulasi bahwa the Federal Reserve akan menaikkan tingkat suku bunga acuannya lebih cepat dari estimasi semula setelah penjualan ritel AS mengalami pertumbuhan tercepat dalam empat bulan terakhir. Sekadar tambahan informasi, penjualan ritel AS naik 0,6% pada Agustus, setelah naik 0,3% pada bulan sebelumnya. Editor: Barratut Taqiyyah Sumber: Bloomberg JAKARTA— Indeks dolar Amerika Serikat pagi ini, Selasa (9/9/2014) terus berlari di level 84. Pada hari ini, Indeks dollar dari data Bloomberg, dibuka naik 0,12% ke 84,33. Pada Senin (8/9/2014) indeks dolar AS ditutup pada level 82,232 (menguat 0,59%). US Dollar Index Spot Rate pada pk. 06:56 WIB ke 84,345 atau menguat 0,13%, dan bergerak di kisaran 84,328—84,354. Posisi indeks dolar AS Pk. 06:56 WIB (9 September) 84,345 (+0,13%) Buka (9 September) 84,330 (+0,12%) 8 September 84,232 (+0,59%) Sumber: US Dollar Index Spot Rate, 2014 http://market.bisnis.com/read/20140909/93/255966/indeks-dolar-as-masih-berlari.-dibuka-naik-012-ke-8433 (http://market.bisnis.com/read/20140909/93/255966/indeks-dolar-as-masihberlari.-dibuka-naik-012-ke-8433) Sumber : BISNIS.COM BEIJING, Sept 08, 2014 (AFP) China’s trade surplus surged 77.8 percent to $49.8 billion in August, official data showed Monday, as exports rose while imports declined. Exports increased 9.4 percent year-on-year to $208.5 billion, the General Administration of Customs announced, while imports fell 2.4 percent to $158.6 billion.

New York – The Institute for Supply Management pada Selasa waktu AS atau Rabu (3/9/2014) waktu Indonesia menyebutkan indeks manufaktur AS naik menjadi 59% untuk bulan Agustus dari 57,1% di bulan Juli. Data ini mencerminkan aktifitas sektor manufaktur tumbuh positif ke level tertingi sejak awal tahun 2011. Data pemesanan baru menuju level terkuat sejak 2004. Untuk produksi manufaktur berada di level tertinggi dalam empat tahun terakhir. “Apa yang kita lihat akan berdampak luas,” kata ketua komite survei ISM Manufaktur AS, Bradley Holcomb seperti mengutip marketwatch.com. Sebanyak 17 dari 18 perusahaan yang menjadi responsen ISM melakukan ekspansi. Jumlah ini sangat tinggi untuk AS yang sedang dalam pemulihan ekonomi. Hanya produsen garmen yang mengalami perlambatan pertumbuhan. Data tersebut mengalahkan ekspektasi Wall Street. Analis memperkirakan indeks akan turun menjadi 56,1%. Walaupun angka di atas 50% mengindikasikan ekspansi. Dengan data tersebut, imbal hasil Treasury AS untuk 10 tahun naik 0,12%. Hal ini menunjukkan euforia positif di kalangan pasar terhadap ekonomi AS. Data ini menjelang pengumuman soal penciptaan lapangan kerja di bulan Agustus pada Jumat pekan ini. Ekonom memprediksi terjadi kenaikan dari 226.000 pada bulan sebelumnya. http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2133019/aktivitas-manufaktur-as-tertinggi-sejak-2011#.VAbLAKMbbxU (http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2133019/aktivitas-manufaktur-astertinggi-sejak-2011#.VAbLAKMbbxU) Sumber : INILAH.COM GENEVA, Sept 02, 2014 (AFP) The United States has risen two notches in the economic competitiveness stakes, the World Economic Forum said Wednesday. “The United States improves its competitiveness position for the second consecutive year, climbing two places to third on the back of gains to its institutional framework and innovation scores,” said the WEF, which issues an annual ranking. The United States had held the top rank seven years ago but slid to seventh amid the financial crisis. The WEF, which organises the annual Davos meeting of the global political and business elite, said that Switzerland, where it is based, remained the world’s most competitive economy. Singapore came in second, holding its ranking from the previous year. Finland and Germany, which had been ranked thrid and fourth respectively, both dropped down one rung on the ladder. The highest climber in the top 10 was Japan, which moved to sixth place from its previous ninth. Hong Kong and the Netherlands held their berths of seventh and eighth, while Britain gained one place, rising to ninth. Sweden fell from sixth to 10th. “The leading economies in the index all possess a track record in developing, accessing and utilising available talent, as well as in making investments that boost innovation,” said the WEF. “These smart and targeted investments have been possible thanks to a coordinated approach based on strong collaboration between the public and private sectors,” it added. Below the top-rankers, the WEF underlined that a string of economic crisis casualties had gained ground, lauding their “significant strides to improve the functioning of their markets and the allocation of productive resources”. Portugal rose from 51st to 36th, and Greece, from 91st to 81st. Spain remained in 35th place for the second year running. The WEF also pointed to countries facing “major competitiveness challenges”. It cited France and Italy, unchanged at 23rd and 49th respectively, saying they “appear not to have fully engaged in this process”. “While the divide between a highly competitive North and a lagging South and East persists, a new outlook on the European competitiveness divide between countries implementing reforms and those that are not can now also be observed,” the WEF said. Examining eight of the world’s largest emerging markets, the WEF said they continued to face difficulties in improving competitiveness. Saudi Arabia fell to 24th from its previous ranking of 20th, while Turkey dropped one notch from 44th, and South Africa dipped to 56th from 53rd. Mexico slid six places from 55th to 61st, while India dropped 11, sliding from 60th to 71st, and Nigeria was down to 127th from 120th. The stand-out performer among emerging markets was China, which gained one place, moving to 28th. The WEF began measuring economic competitiveness in 2004. Its ranking is based on a raft of criteria: institutions, infrastructure and the macroeconomic environment, plus health and education, goods and labour market efficiency, financial market development, technology, market size, business sophistication, and innovation. (https://iaminvestor.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/2008_2014-tren-gdp-china.jpg) HONG KONG, Aug 25, 2014 (AFP) Asian markets were mixed Monday following a broadly negative lead from Wall Street after the head of the US central bank said she was still concerned about employment in the country. While Janet Yellen’s speech Friday said slackness in the jobs market would likely staunch inflation, investors noted her acknowledgement of calls for an early interest rate rise, which in turn lifted the dollar to a seven-month high against the yen. Tokyo rose 0.20 percent by the break and Seoul put on 0.10 percent, but Hong Kong slipped 0.44 percent, Shanghai shed 0.28 percent and Sydney was 0.27 percent lower. Speaking at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Yellen said even if unemployment has fallen more quickly than expected to 6.2 percent, there remains “considerable uncertainty about the level of employment”. That signalled her commitment to the Fed’s timetable for hiking rates late next year, rather than earlier as some analysts and policy makers would like. However, Junichi Ishikawa, market analyst at IG Securities in Tokyo, told Dow Jones Newswires: “Her comments at Jackson Hole were balanced, and took into consideration the positions of the more hawkish members of the Fed.” And Kathleen Brooks at Forex.com said dealers took account of the uncertainty surrounding labour market indicators Yellen mentioned in her speech. “The market seems to perceive this indecision to be a subtle shift away from the ultra-dovish stance Yellen has taken in the past,” she said. Yellen’s comments pushed the dollar above 104 yen for the first time since April and to the strongest level since January. In early Tokyo trade the greenback bought 104.14 yen compared with 103.87 yen in New York Friday. But the Dow eased 0.22 percent and the S&P 500 shed 0.20 percent. The Nasdaq added 0.14 percent. The euro was at $1.3204 and 137.51 yen, against $1.3241 and 137.60 yen. On oil markets US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for October eased 21 cents to $93.44, while Brent crude for October fell 44 cents to $101.85. Gold traded at $1,278.20 an ounce at 0230 GMT compared to $1,281.40 an ounce late Friday. BEIJING—Two gauges of manufacturing activity in China picked up in July, adding to signs that economic growth is recovering as the government’s stimulus program takes effect. Both the government’s purchasing managers’ index and a competing private-sector equivalent bounced back in July, offering fresh signs of recovery after policy makers moved to speed up spending on railways, cut taxes on businesses and make more credit available to small firms. “Broadly speaking, today’s PMI reading suggests that economic activity is still being supported by healthy foreign demand along with state-led infrastructure investment and other targeted stimulus measures,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, an economist with Capital Economics. The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 51.7 in July from 51 in June, marking a 27-month high, the National Bureau of Statistics said Friday. It was also higher than the 51.4 median forecast of economists polled earlier by The Wall Street Journal. A PMI reading above 50 indicates an expansion in manufacturing activity from the previous month, whereas a reading below that indicates contraction. The official PMI’s subindex for small businesses rose to 50.1 in July, the first time the reading has topped 50 since April 2012. Employees assemble drug capsules at a factory in Jingzhou, Hubei province. Reuters That was mirrored by the results of a competing index compiled by HSBC Holdings (http://quotes.wsj.com/UK/HSBA) HSBA.LN -1.12% (http://quotes.wsj.com/UK/HSBA) PLC and research house Markit Economics that focuses more on small and private firms. The HSBC PMI rose to an 18-month high of 51.7 in July compared with 50.7 in June, HSBC said Friday. “Policy makers are continuing with targeted easing in recent weeks and we expect the cumulative impact of these measures to filter through in the next few months and help consolidate the recovery,” HSBC’s chief economist for China, Qu Hongbin, said. Beijing has unveiled a series of supportive policies for small businesses, which were hit hard by sluggish economic growth. The central bank cut the amount of cash banks need to hold in reserve, which boosts the amount they can lend to small firms. The government also is offering tax breaks for small businesses. The Chinese economy grew 7.5% in the second quarter compared with a year earlier, slightly up from 7.4% in the first quarter but well below the 7.7% recorded in the final quarter last year. China’s leaders have so far refrained from using massive stimulus measures as they did during the global financial crisis, and instead relying on targeted easing measures to support sectors in need. Both official and HSBC PMIs suggested that the manufacturing sector is increasingly healthy, but it would be wise not to get carried away, said Li Wei, an economist with Standard Chartered Bank in Shanghai. “We’re not fully convinced about the stability of the recovery,” Mr. Li said. “Housing and manufacturing investment are not out of the woods yet.” For example, the property sector continues to drag on growth. China’s average home prices fell for a third straight month in July. New home prices in 100 Chinese cities surveyed by China Real Estate Index System fell 0.8% in July, compared with June’s 0.5% decline and May’s 0.3% fall. “To ensure a steady economic growth, we believe the government will stay with targeted easing and proactive fiscal policy in coming months,” said Zhang Fan, an economist at CIMB. Mr. Zhang said Beijing is likely to speed up the pace of reforms in the following months, which could help maintain growth momentum in the long run. Earlier this week, China laid out detailed plans to reform the household registration, or hukou, system to make it easier for rural migrants to settle in China’s cities. –Grace Zhu and Richard Silk JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com — Berdasarkan data Bank Dunia, sebanyak 12 negara ekonomi terbesar dunia menyumbang dua per tiga ekonomi dunia. Namun demikian, masalah yang kadang terjadi adalah distribusi ekonomi tidak merata. Dengan demikian, ada negara-negara yang mendapat “potongan kue” yang tak sama ukurannya. Berikut merupakan negara-negara terkaya di dunia tahun 2014 yang diukur berdasarkan kekuatan ekonomi dari daya beli dalam mata uang dollar AS. Data dikumpulkan dari Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) dan Outlook Ekonomi Dunia yang dilansir dari situs TheRichest.com, Kamis (31/7/2014). Amerika Serikat. Daya beli di AS mencapai 17,5 triliun dollar AS sehingga terus menjadikan AS negara terkaya di dunia. GDP per kapita negara ini mencapai 52.800 dollar AS. Pada tahun 2010, 15,1 persen warga AS hidup di bawah garis kemiskinan. Namun, angka ini tak mengejutkan bila dibandingkan dengan banyak negara lain yang memiliki angka kemiskinan lebih besar. Tiongkok. Daya beli Tiongkok secara keseluruhan mencapai 10 triliun dollar AS. Akan tetapi, GDP per kapita Tiongkok cenderung rendah, hanya 9.800 dollar AS atau pada posisi 121 dunia. Sementara itu, hanya 6,1 persen warga Tiongkok hidup miskin, walau pada tahun 2013 Tiongkok menyebutkan garis kemiskinan warganya pada kisaran 3.630 dollar AS per orang. Jepang. Dengan daya beli mencapai 4,8 triliun dollar AS, Jepang menempati posisi ketiga ekonomi terkaya dunia. GDP per kapita di Jepang mencapai 37.100 dollar AS, membuat Jepang berada pada posisi 36 dalam hal GDP. Pada tahun 2010, sebanyak 16 persen warga Jepang hidup di bawah garis kemiskinan. Jerman. Negara ini memiliki daya beli mencapai 3,9 triliun dollar AS, menjadikannya ekonomi terkaya Eropa. Jerman juga menempati posisi 29 dalam hal GDP per kapita, yang tercatat sebesar 39.500 dollar AS. Sebanyak 15,5 persen warga Jerman hidup di bawah garis kemiskinan. Perancis. Daya beli Perancis mencapai 2,9 triliun dollar AS. Negara Eropa barat ini menempati peringkat 39 dalam GDP per kapita versi World Factbook, yakni menembus 35.700 dollar AS. Perancis juga memiliki tingkat kemiskinan yang cukup rendah, yakni 7,9 persen. Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Harga rumah China kembali jatuh ke level terendah pada Juni, setelah pengembang memangkas harga untuk mendongkrak volume penjualan. Meski demikian, penjualan rumah di beberapa kota di China perlahan mulai bangkit. Data yang dirilis Biro Statistik Nasional China menunjukkan harga rumah jatuh di 55 dari 70 kota pada Mei lalu, yang merupakan kejatuhan harga rumah terbesar sejak Januari 2011. Harga rumah di Shanghai dan selatah Guangzhou turun 0,6% dari Mei. penurunan terbesar terjadi di Hangzhou yaitu 1,7%. Ekonom Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd, Liu Li Gang menyampaikan persoalan utama industri properti China adalah terlalu tingginya angka inventori. “Namun penurunan tidak terlalu besar. Di beberapa kota penjualan rumah mulai pulih dan perekonomian China mulai stabil. Pasar properti akan segera pulih,” kata Li Gang di Hong Kong, Jumat (18/7). Beberapa kota di China memang tengah mengupayakan pemulihan pasar properti untuk menstimulasi pasar lokalnya, setelah para pengembang memangkas harga penjualan untuk menjaring pembeli. Source : Bloomberg Editor : Yusran Yunus BEIJING, July 16, 2014 (AFP) China’s economic growth hit 7.5 percent year-on-year in April-June, official data showed Wednesday, ahead of expectations as the world’s second-largest economy was boosted by government stimulus. The second-quarter figure announced by the National Bureau of Statistics compared with 7.4 percent in the previous three months and exceeded the median forecast of 7.4 percent in a survey of 17 economists by AFP. “Generally speaking, China’s economy showed good momentum of stable and moderate growth in the first half-year,” said NBS spokesman Sheng Laiyun. “However we should keep in mind that the domestic and international economic environment is still complicated and the national economy still faces many challenges.” The NBS also said China’s economy expanded 7.4 percent in the first half of the year. The results come after Beijing introduced a series of policies since April in response to concerns over slowing growth, including tax breaks for small enterprises, targeted infrastructure spending and the encouragement of lending in rural areas and to small companies. Wendy Chen, Shanghai-based economist with Nomura International, told AFP: “A series of policy easing measures have taken effect, and the economy has already bottomed out and recovered.” Growth would be “slightly better” in the second half of the year, she said, but added: “We expect more policy easing in the third quarter, in all aspects including the property sector.” Despite the short-term stabilising effect of the efforts, which economists have dubbed “mini-stimulus”, some analysts remain pessimistic about the full-year outlook given persistent concerns over the country’s huge but troubled property sector. According to the NBS statement, most key property indicators declined in the first half, with the area of homes sold falling 7.8 percent on-year and home sales values down 9.2 percent. Ma Xiaoping, Beijing-based economist for British bank HSBC, cited the real-estate sector as the “main downward risk in the second half” and noted that the property investment growth rate showed a significant decline. “If this trend continues, we will need to see whether infrastructure construction and manufacturing can offset the impact from the property industry decline,” she told AFP. The NBS’s Sheng acknowledged that the property market correction will add to economic pressures in the short term. “But in the long term, it will be conducive to the healthy development of the real-estate industry itself as well as the healthy and sustainable development of the national economy,” he said. – ‘Targeted measures’ – China’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew 7.7 percent in 2013, the same as 2012, which was the worst pace since 7.6 percent in 1999. For full-year 2014, the median forecast in the AFP survey is for an expansion of 7.3 percent — down from 7.4 percent in the last quarterly poll three months ago. If realised, 7.3 percent growth would be the weakest annual performance since 3.8 percent in 1990. China in March set its annual growth target for this year at about 7.5 percent, the same as last year. The objective is usually set conservatively so as to ensure being met — the last time China missed it was in 1998, during the turmoil of the Asian financial crisis. Officials including Premier Li Keqiang earlier this year emphasised that the goal was flexible — widely seen as a hint it may not be realised. But last month, Li called achieving it the “inescapable responsibility” of local governments and urged “no delay” in action, an indication of concern. China’s leaders consistently say that slower growth is good for the country as they try to reduce decades of over-reliance on the huge though often inefficient investment projects that have girded expansion. They envision a new model in which the country’s increasingly affluent consumers drive activity, generating slower but more sustainable growth in the long run. Economists expect refinements to the limited stimulatory efforts to continue in the form of “targeted” steps, though they differ on whether authorities will go so far as cutting interest rates or reserve requirement ratios for all banks. Separately, the NBS said China’s industrial production, which measures output at factories, workshops and mines, rose 9.2 percent year-on-year in June. Retail sales, a key indicator of consumer spending, increased 12.4 percent in the same month, while fixed asset investment, a measure of government spending on infrastructure, rose 17.3 percent on-year in the first six months. China’s central bank said Tuesday that bank lending in the country picked up in June from May. Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist at Capital Economics, described second-quarter GDP growth as “healthy” in an analysis. “Today’s data clearly demonstrate that policymakers have plenty of tools to shore up growth if necessary and we expect that further targeted measures may be rolled out to offset continued weakness in the property sector,” he wrote. Bisnis.com, JAKARTA — Bursa Asia berfluktuasi setelah The Federal Reserve mengatakan ada beberapa faktor di bursa AS yang kelebihan valuasi dan kinerja perbankan lebih baik dari estimasi. Indeks MSCI Asia Pacific sedikit berubah ke 147,08 pada perdagangan Rabu (16/7/2014) pukul 09.20 waktu Tokyo atau pukul 07.20 WIB. “Investor pasar modal sedikit menahan diri setelah The Fed mengingatkan sejumlah sektor telah kelebihan valuasi,” ujar Tony Farnham, Strategist Patersons Securities Ltd, seperti dikutip Bloomberg, Rabu (16/7/2014). Saham Iluka Resources Ltd naik 2,3%, Rio Tinto Group naik 1,3%, Yahoo Japan Corp turun 1,8%. Indeks Jepang Topix naik 0,1%, indeks Korea Selatan naik 0,2%, indeks Australia S&P/ASX 200 naik 0,2%, dan indeks Selandia Baru NZX 50 turun 0,1%. Editor : Nurbaiti (Reuters) – The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to one of its lowest levels since before the 2007-09 recession, a sign of increasing health in the labor market. Other data on Thursday showed a rise in business inventories during May, bolstering expectations the economy was bouncing back from a weak first quarter. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped by 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 304,000 for the week ended July 5, the Labor Department said. Economists had expected no change in the number of first-time applications for jobless aid. The readings had little impact on financial markets, as U.S. stocks and government debt yields fell over concerns about Italy’s economy and the health of Portugal’s top-listed bank. Employers slashed their payrolls during America’s deep recession, but the long cycle of aggressive layoffs now appears over. The four-week moving average for new claims, considered a better measure of underlying labor market conditions as it irons out week-to-week volatility, declined by 3,500 to 311,500 last week. That was the second-lowest reading for the moving average since August 2007. After falling steadily for several years, the moving average has been largely unchanged since the spring. The labor market is still not fully healed. Firms have been more reticent about hiring, although companies added 288,000 jobs to their payrolls in June and the unemployment rate fell to 6.1 percent, closing in on a six-year low. “The labor market is firming up,” said Stephen Stanley, an economist at Pierpont Securities in Stamford, Connecticut. Stanley cautioned against reading too deeply into last week’s claims data because many factories shut down for parts of July to retool, often making claims data during the month volatile. The Labor Department said there were no special factors influencing the state level data. Separately, the Commerce Department said wholesale inventories rose 0.5 percent in May, just below economists’ expectations for a 0.6 percent increase. The gains were driven by increases in inventories of metals, autos, machinery and lumber. Inventories are a key component of gross domestic product changes. The component that goes into the calculation of GDP – wholesale stocks excluding autos – increased 0.3 percent in May. A sharp slowdown in the pace of restocking by businesses helped to sink economic growth in the first quarter, but a swing in inventories is expected in the April-June period. The economy contracted at a 2.9 percent annual pace in the January-March period, with inventories playing a big role in the decline. Many analysts forecast growth in the second quarter to rebound to at least a 3 percent pace. (Reporting by Jason Lange; Editing by Paul Simao) Bisnis.com, BEIJING – Sektor manufaktur China berekspansi pada laju tercepatnya pada Juni, menegaskan keberhasilan pemerintah China dalam menyiasati pertumbuhan lambat negara tersebut. Data yang dirilis Biro Statistik Nasional dan Federasi Penjualan dan Logistik China menunjukkan indeks pembelian pabrik (Purchasing Managers Index/PMI) berada di level 51,0. Nilai ini sesuai prediksi ekonom yaitu 50,8, dan merupakan indeks tertinggi dalam 6 bulan terakhir. Ekonom BNP Paribas SA, Chen Xingdong mengatakan bergairahnya sektor manufaktur dipicu oleh penggelontoran mini-stimulus. Data terkini mengimplikasikan perekonomian mulai stabil, jelas Chen di Beijing, Selasa (1/7/2014). Tak jauh berbeda, PMI dari HSBC Holdings Plc dan Markit Economics menunjukkan indeks 50,7, meningkat dari indeks bulan sebelumnya yakni 49,4. Sektor manufaktur yang tengah berekspansi diyakini dapat membantu pemerintah China mencapai target pertumbuhan 7,5% pada 2014. Hal sama disampaikan Zhang Liqun, peneliti Development Research Center. Menurutnya, langkah pemerintah untuk menstabilkan perekonomian mulai menunjukkan hasil. Para analis pun semakin optimis dengan pertumbuhan China. Mereka meningkatkan prediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi menjadi 7,4%, dari sebelumnya 7,3%. Meski demikian, pemerintah Negeri Tembok Raksasa diminta mewaspadai pasar properti yang lesu berkepanjangan dan meningkatnya kredit buruk, yang diperkirakan akan mengancam pertumbuhan ekonomi pada paruh kedua tahun ini. Menurut Chen, pasar properti masih menjadi ancaman terbesar perekonomian. Source : Bloomberg/Reuters Editor : Fatkhul Maskur Bisnis.com, JAKARTA—Jepang berisiko kehilangan posisi sebagai negara kreditor terbesar dunia setelah mengalami penurunan jumlah simpanan, sehingga tidak memadai untuk membiayai utang publik yang membengkak, menurut survei Bloomberg News. Surplus transaksi berjalan yang selalu mendorong posisi aset bersih Jepang hingga yang terbesar di dunia mulai 1991 kini mulai berbalik, menurut 10 dari 16 ekonom berdasarkan survei Bloomberg News. Sembilan di antara mereka memproyeksikan akan terjadi defisit berkelanjutan pada akhir 2020. Jepang memiliki aset bersih senilai 325 triliun yen pada akhir 2013, sedangkan China berada di posisi kedua dengan aset 208 triliun yen, menurut kementerian keuangan negara itu. Ketika populasi usia tua membuat simpanan Jepang berkurang, negara itu akan menjadi lebih bergantung pada kreditor luar negeri untuk membiayai defisit anggaran dan mengelola beban utang. Peralihan ke defisit transaksi berjalan bisa mengarah ke peningkatan dalam imbal beli obligasi pada saat investor mengkaji kembali prospek negara itu. Selain itu, peningkatan imbal beli obligasi akan memuluskan jalan bagi China untuk mengalahkan kembali negara lain sebagai kreditor terbesar dunia. “Peluang China untuk mengalahkan Jepang pada awal 2020 dalam hal jumlah aset bersih di luar negeri menjadi besar,” ujar Hidenori Suezawa, analis pasar keuangan dari SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. sebagaimana dikutip Bloomberg, Selasa (10/6/2014). Sumber : Bloomberg Editor : Nurbaiti SHANGHAI. Nilai tukar Yuan turun ke posisi terendah satu pekan setelah Gubernur bank sentral China Zhou Xiaochuan menyatakan, ekonomi China dalam situasi yang cukup rumit. Kondisi itu membuat investor khawatir pemulihan pertumbuhan ekonomi tertunda . Bank Rakyat China harus menerapkan kebijakan moneter yang hati-hati dan harus memastikan stabilitas keuangan, kata Zhou saat berkunjung ke cabang bank sentral di kota Jiaxing provinsi Zhejiang pekan ini. Sementara itu, konflik di lautan China Selatan kian memanas setelah sebuah kapal Cina menyerang dan menenggelamkan sebuah kapal nelayan Vietnam di perairan yang disengketakan di lepas pantai Vietnam. “Pelemahan Yuan terjadi karena prospek China yang tidak membaik dalam waktu dekat,” kata Bruce Yam, ahli strategi mata uang berbasis Sun Hung Kai Forex di Hong Kong. “Perselisihan dengan Vietnam juga bisa mencegah arus masuk,” katanya. Yuan melemah 0,03% menjadi 6,2410 per dolar pada pukul 10:20 di Shanghai. Ekonomi terbesar kedua di dunia itu naik 7,4% di kuartal I. Di pasar spot di Hong Kong, yuan turun 0,03% menjadi 6,2387 per dolar. Sedangkan untuk pasar non deliverable forward yuan diperdagangkan di posisi 6,2535 per dolar AS, naik jika dibandingkan posisi 6,2550 kemarin. Editor: Asnil Bambani Amri Sumber: Bloomberg Bisnis.com, HONG KONG – Saham China menguat, mendorong indeks perusahaan real-estate menggapai kenaikan terbesar dalam 1 bulan, di tengah spekulasi pemerintah mengurangi pembatasan properti untuk mencegah ekonomi dari kehilangan target pertumbuhan tahun ini. China Vanke Co dan Poly Real Estate Group Co naik lebih dari 3%, dengan Shanghai properti sub-indeks naik 2,1% untuk kenaikan terbesar sejak 22 April. Greentown China Holdings Ltd dan China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd ( 688 ) melonjak lebih dari 5% di Hong Kong. Shanghai Composite Index naik 0,7% menjadi 2.034,57 pada penutupan, sedangkan indeks Hang Seng Hong Kong menguat 0,1% menjadi 22.965,86. China telah memungkinkan kota untuk menyesuaikan pembatasan pembelian rumah, kecuali Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, dan Shenzhen, demikian laporan Southern Weekly, kemarin, mengutip beberapa sumber di Kementerian Perumahan. China Securities Journal mengatakan hari ini pemerintah akan menghapus pembatasan pembelian rumah tergantung pada kondisi pasar. “Meskipun beberapa penyesuaian kebijakan telah diperkenalkan oleh berbagai kota, ini akan menjadi pertama kalinya pasar bisa mengharapkan relaksasi yang signifikan dari pembatasan pembelian rumah,” kata Toni Ho, seorang analis pada BoCom International Holdings Co, dalam sebuah melaporkan hari ini. Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) naik 0,1% hari ini, sementara Indeks CSI 300 naik 0,8% seiring dengan produsen software yang memimpin rally untuk saham teknologi. Untuk minggu ini, indeks Hang Seng melonjak 1,1%, sedangkan indeks Shanghai naik 0,4%. Setelah 4 tahun pembatasan pemerintah untuk mendinginkan pasar perumahan, pergeseran penjualan rumah dan konstruksi properti telah menjadi hambatan bagi perekonomian, yang mencatat pertumbuhan paling lambat dalam 6 kuartal pada 3 bulan pertama tahun ini. Source : Bloomberg Editor : Fatkhul Maskur

Be Careful What You Wish For

Karl Gerth (http://history.ucsd.edu/people/faculty/gerth-karl.html) is a professor of history and Hsiu endowed chair in Chinese studies at the University of California, San Diego. He is the author of “As China Goes, so Goes the World (http://us.macmillan.com/aschinagoessogoestheworld/KarlGerth): How Chinese Consumers are Transforming Everything.” UPDATED APRIL 8, 2014, 9:32 PM Global business and political leaders provide an unambiguous solution to China’s — and the world’s — economic malaise: Get Chinese consumers to spend a much higher percentage of their G.D.P., as their American counterparts already do. Chinese consumer demand could compensate for lackluster international demand and improve the quality of life for people in China. True, a shift toward a more domestic consumer-driven economy would challenge domestic constituencies heavily dependent on debt-driven government spending. Otherwise, what’s not to like? Can China head off a domestic financial meltdown and stimulate renewed global economic growth without trashing its environment and the world’s? But as Chinese consumers spend their way into new lifestyles, they also create problems with equally elusive solutions. China’s environmental crises are at least as alarming as the growth of lifestyle diseases such as obesity or increased inequality. According to the World Bank, China has 16 of the world’s most polluted cities (http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1139530/pollution-remains-hazardous-levels-beijing). And the problems appear to be getting worse. Although China is the world’s largest energy user and carbon-emitter, the country is barely a Top 20 per capita emitter. In other words, there is plenty of room for growth in carbon emissions. Rising per capita consumption of things such as chain-store hamburgers and gas for cars will boost Chinese and world economic growth. Yet those same increases also create unprecedented environmental challenges. As always with China, per capita changes matter. What will happen as Chinese consumers begin to buy, as requested, even a slightly larger per capita number of the hamburgers, cars and countless other consumer products as their American and European counterparts? Can China head off a domestic financial meltdown and stimulate renewed global economic growth without trashing its environment and the world’s? It’s a lot to ask. No other industrial nation has yet found a way to reverse the ecologically destructive effects of its way of life faster than any offsetting commitment to correcting, let alone reversing them. It is unrealistic (and, perhaps, unconscionable) to expect a poorer country to lead the way. While rooting for the rise of the Chinese consumer, we may also want to contemplate the consequences.

Building the dream

By 2030 Chinese cities will be home to about 1 billion people. Getting urban China to work properly is vital to the country’s economic and political future, says James Miles SOME HISTORIANS BELIEVE that Marco Polo never went to China. But even if the 13th-century Venetian merchant did not lay eyes on the coastal city of Hangzhou himself, he certainly reflected the awe it inspired in other foreign traders when he described it as “beyond dispute the finest and the noblest in the world”. And, “incredible as it may seem”, he wrote, Hangzhou (which he called Kinsay) was but one of more than 1,200 “great and wealthy cities” in southern China. “Everything appertaining to this city is on so vast a scale…that it is not easy even to put it in writing.” In Marco Polo’s day it was the ornate palaces, paved roads and meticulously planned layouts of Chinese cities that impressed visitors; in today’s megacities it is some of the world’s tallest skyscrapers and largest shopping malls, interlinked by the world’s longest bullet-train network. And if all goes according to the Communist Party’s plan, the coming two decades will evoke a few more gasps. By 2020 the high-speed rail network will expand by nearly two-thirds, with the addition of another 7,000km (4,300 miles). By then almost every city with a population of half a million or more will be connected to it. Tens of millions more migrants will have poured in from the countryside. Between now and 2030, says the World Bank, the average rise in the number of citydwellers each year is likely to be around 13m, roughly the population of Tokyo. In 2030 China’s cities will be home to close to 1 billion people, or about 70% of the population, compared with 54% today. By some estimates the urban population will peak around 2040, still just shy of the 1 billion mark but close enough. As James McGregor, an American businessman, put it in his book, “One Billion Customers”, published in 2005, the notion of a billion Chinese spenders has come to symbolise “the dream of staggering profits for those who get here first, the hype and hope that has mesmerised foreign merchants and traders for centuries”. After taking over as party chief in 2012, Xi Jinping (now also president) launched his expected decade in power with a catchphrase: “The Chinese dream”. It was a striking break from the party’s tradition of ideology-laden slogans. Now endlessly invoked in official speeches and the subject of numerous books and songs, the phrase is clearly intended to appeal to upwardly mobile urban residents striving for the comforts of their rich-world counterparts. Only 15 years ago such a middle class barely existed in China. In 2011, when the country reached 50% urbanisation, it had become obvious that the party’s fate rested with the stability of cities and the contentedness of their middle-class residents. The largely rural country that Deng Xiaoping (himself of peasant stock) set out to “reform and open up” in the late 1970s had become overwhelmingly urban in its economic and political focus. Thanks mainly to a tide of migration, China’s urban population had grown by more than 500m since Deng launched his reforms: the equivalent of all the people in the United States plus three Britains. Li Keqiang, who took over as prime minister in 2013, sees further urbanisation as critical to China’s economic success. He has called it a “gigantic engine” for growth. Mr Li and other officials are fond of quoting Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel prize-winning American economist, who said that technological innovation in America and urbanisation in China would be “two keys” to mankind’s development in the 21st century. A new grand plan for China’s cities, overseen by the prime minister and published last month, admits to a number of problems, such as worsening pollution, urban sprawl and congestion as well as growing social tensions. It also points out that China’s urbanisation lags behind that of other countries at similar levels of development (typically around 60%), and that there remains “quite a lot of room” for further urban growth.

Getting cities right will help China to keep growing fast for years to come. Getting them wrong would be disastrous, bringing worsening inequality (which the World Bank says has approached “Latin American levels”, although Chinese officials insist it has recently been improving), the spread of slums, the acceleration of global climate change (cities consume threequarters of China’s energy, which comes mainly from coal) and increasing social unrest. After more than a decade of spectacular growth in China, much of it in double digits, doubts are setting in both at home and abroad about the sustainability of the “Chinese model”. Growth is slowing. Lavish spending by local governments has piled up huge debts. Increasing numbers of middle-class Chinese are looking for boltholes abroad for themselves, their families and their assets. Scandals involving senior officials have revealed corruption on a gargantuan scale. Censors generally succeed in preventing anti-party messages from spreading widely, but microbloggers with thousands of followers still boldly relay damning critiques. Mr Xi describes the country’s problems and his approach to solving them in colourful terms. Reforms, he says, have entered a “deep-water area”. China must “venture along dangerous paths to break through barriers to reform”. In tackling corruption it will need the resolve of a man who must “cut off his own snake-bitten hand to save his life”. At a plenum of the Central Committee in November the party declared that market forces must play a “decisive role”, the strongest support it has ever expressed for the market. This seems all the more stirring after years of vacillation under Mr Xi’s predecessor, Hu Jintao, who retreated from reform in the face of powerful resistance by vested interests, above all local governments, huge state-owned enterprises and, ironically, the new middle class, which would rather not share the fruits of growth with rural migrants. Why cities matter

All the most important reforms that Mr Xi needs to tackle involve the movement to China’s cities. He must give farmers the same property rights as urban residents so they can sell their homes (which is currently all but impossible) and leave the land with cash in hand. He must sort out the mess of local-government finances, which depend heavily on grabbing land from farmers and selling it to developers. He must loosen the grip of state-owned enterprises on the commanding heights of the economy and make them hand over more of their profits to the government. He must move faster to clean up the urban environment, especially its noxious air, and prevent the growth of China’s cities from exacerbating climate change. And he must start giving urban residents a say in how their cities are run. This list is both daunting and urgent. The recent growth of China’s cities has created two new social forces whose concerns Mr Xi cannot afford to ignore. One is a vast migrant population (including the urban-born children of recent migrants from the countryside) that now makes up more than one-third of the urban total of 730m. It is far harder for a member of this group to gain official recognition as a city-dweller in his own country, with all the welfare benefits and access to public services that status confers, than to gain citizenship in America or Europe if he were to migrate there. The harsh treatment of China’s internal migrants is creating huge social divisions that could erupt in serious unrest. The other new force is the urban middle class, now thought to be roughly the same size as the migrant population, which numbers around 260m. It has been kept reasonably content by the rapid growth of the past few years, but that may not last. China’s middle classes, like those elsewhere, worry about property: how to protect it from the whims of urban planners and party officials, what is happening to prices, and what to do if the bubble bursts. Increasingly unaffordable house prices, or conversely a steep drop, might prompt different ends of the middle-class spectrum to protest. So too might the party’s many sins and blunders: a food-safety scandal, perhaps, linked to official corruption. Like his predecessors, Mr Xi is nipping signs of unrest in the bud. Dissidents who have done little more than briefly raise protest banners in tiny groups are being thrown into jail. But there are also some positive signs. He has taken charge of a new party organ, a small group of officials with a wide range of portfolios, who are working to improve policy co-ordination and overcome bureaucratic resistance to change. It even has a task force dedicated to building “democracy and the legal system”, although that may not get very far. Mr Xi has also launched a fierce campaign against high-level corruption which, though unlikely to offer a lasting cure to the endemic problem of graft, could scare officials into compliance with his reform plans. A dwindling labour supply As economic growth slows and the pool of surplus labour in the countryside shrinks, the speed of urbanisation will diminish. For the past few years about 9m people have been moving into cities every year. The number will fall to 7m in the second half of this decade and 5m in the 2020s, according to Jin Sanlin of the Development Research Centre, a government think-tank. By 2017, he writes, that supply of surplus labour in the countryside will have all but disappeared. Chinese officials note that the speed of urbanisation in China has been far faster than in Western countries during their industrial transformations. It took China only 30 years to climb from 20% urbanisation to today’s 54%. In Britain the equivalent journey took 100 years and in America 60. However, in more recent times population growth in urban China has been slower than in countries such as South Korea and Indonesia during their period of rapid economic development, mainly because of China’s discriminatory policies against migrants and its state monopoly on rural-land sales. By any measure, the country’s urbanisation has been impressive. Shanghai is about to finish a 121-storey American-designed skyscraper that will be the world’s second-tallest building (after Dubai’s Burj Khalifa). Whole new urban districts, underground railways, modern airports and intercity expressways have been built on a scale and at a pace most countries would be proud of. But China has failed to reap the full benefits of city growth. This is becoming a pressing problem in the face of diminishing returns from pouring ever more concrete.

Menilik Kondisi Ekonomi Tiongkok Sabtu, 12 April 2014 | 17:25 WIB HONGKONG, KOMPAS.com – Pengamat menyatakan ekonomi Tiongkok kehilangan momentum pada kuartal I 2014 dan meleset dari target pemerintah. Apa yang sebenarnya terjadi pada ekonomi terbesar kedua dunia ini? Produk domestik bruto (PDB) Tiongkok diprediksi mencapai 7,3 persen pada kuartal I 2014.Para ekonom yang disurvei CNN Money, juga memprediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi Tiongkok tahun 2014 mencapai 7,3 persen, di bawah target pemerintah yang mencapai 7,5 persen.Pertumbuhan ekonomi Tiongkok sangat dicermati terkait upaya pemerintah melakukan reformasi ekonomi setelah bertahun-tahun “lari kencang.” Perlambatan memang sangat terlihat.PDB Tiongkok tercatat sebesar 7,7 persen dalam dua tahun terakhir, dibandingkan 9,3 persen pada tahun 2011 dan 10,5 persen di tahun 2010. Pemerintah Tiongkok menyatakan, nyaman dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi sekitar 7,5 persen.”Pemerintah telah menggarisbawahi bahwa menjaga pertumbuhan adalah tujuan ekonomi terpenting. Pemerintah pun telah mulai mengambil langkah yang tak ambisius untuk mendukung pertumbuhan,” kata Ekonom RBS Louis Kuijs.Selama tiga kuartal terakhir, beberapa ekonom, menyatakan pertumbuhan kredit masih menjadi tantangan terbesar perekonomian Tiongkok. Ini adalah akar dari berbagai tantangan yang dialami Negeri Tirai Bambu itu.Ekonom Societe Generale Wei Yao mengatakan, pemerintah Tiongkok harus mengerem pertumbuhan kredit, walaupun berarti akan berdampak pada menurunnya investasi domestik. Beberapa permasalahan lain adalah pasar properti yang overheat dan meningkatnya volatilitas mata uang yuan.”Intinya adalah tidak ada jalan keluar yang mudah untuk keluar dari masalah yang dihadapi Tiongkok,” ujar Ekonom Daiwa Lai dan Tang.Dampak bagi Indonesia Perlambatan ekonomi Tiongkok tentu saja akan berdampak kepada negara-negara yang menggantungkan nasib ekspornya ke Tiongkok, termasuk Indonesia. Tiongkok adalah konsumen terbesar produkproduk ekspor Indonesia, terutama komoditas.Direktur Departemen Kebijakan Ekonomi dan Moneter Bank Indonesia (BI) Solikin M Juhro beberapa waktu lalu mengaku pihaknya masih memandang kondisi di Tiongkok masih dicermati menjadi faktor yang dapat memberikan risiko perlambatan. Sebab, hal ini berkaitan dengan ekspor komoditas Indonesia.”Tiongkok kenapa penting? Karena saat ini kan dia ingin soft landing. Perlambatan di Tiongkok mempengaruhi harga komoditas internasional. CPO, karet, timah itu kan konsumen tetbesarnya Tiongkok. Kalau Tiongkok melambat maka ekspor komoditas kita akan terpengaruh,” jelasnya.Sementara itu, Bank Pembangunan Asia (ADB) memprediksi perlambatan ekonomi Tiongkok akan berpengaruh pada volume ekspor Indonesia.”Pertumbuhan akan lebih flat. Negara yang penting dicatat adalah Tiongkok. Pertumbuhan ekonomi Tiongkok akan melemah karena ada penurunan pertumbuhan kredit. Dengan demikian pertumbuhan ekspor kita akan tertahan,” kata Deputy Country Director ADB untuk Indonesia Edimon Ginting. 26. March 2014, 16:42:46 SGT Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Cina Tak Memuaskan Seorang pejabat senior pada lembaga investasi milik pemerintah Cina mengatakan pertumbuhan ekonomi negara itu sejauh ini mengecewakan. Namun, menurutnya, masih terlalu dini untuk memicu kekhawatiran. “Pertumbuhan [Cina] pada triwulan pertama tidak memuaskan. Tetapi, situasi saat ini seakan masih dalam kondisi uji coba—bukan mewakili [pertumbuhan] setahun,” ujar Li Xiaopeng, kepala dewan pengawas China Investment Corp, dalam konferensi investasi Credit Suisse di Hong Kong. Dewan pengawas CIC bertanggung jawab memonitor perilaku para direktur dan eksekutif lembaga investasi itu. “Pertumbuhan yang sesungguhnya terjadi [pada kuartal kedua]. Jadi, janganlah cemas,” ujarnya sambil menyinggung pengaruh Tahun Baru Imlek dalam pembacaan data ekonomi. Dalam dua bulan pertama 2014, data perekonomian Cina menunjukkan hasil mengecewakan. Indeks saham turun dan perbankan investasi terpaksa menurunkan prediksi pertumbuhan Cina. Tahun lalu, Cina mengatakan akan mengambil sejumlah langkah reformasi untuk membuat sektor korporasi lebih kompetitif. Namun banyak analis mengatakan kebijakan ini akan membebani pertumbuhan ekonomi Negeri Tirai Bambu. Unemployment rate rises to 6.7 percent in February; economy adds 175,000 jobs By Ylan Q. Mui, Published: March 8 E-mail the writer The U.S. unemployment rate inched up in February as more people joined the labor force to hunt for a job, according to government data released Friday. The Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate rose from 6.6 percent in January to 6.7 percent in February — a move that actually suggests positive momentum for the economy. That’s because the uptick was not because of workers losing their jobs but rather more people looking for employment. The data also showed the economy added a solid 175,000 jobs last month after two months of lackluster growth. “The overall impression is that things did slow down, but not as drastically as the December and January data suggested,” said Kevin Logan, chief U.S. economist at HSBC. The slowdown in hiring this winter, coupled with recent weak data from the housing and manufacturing industries, have raised questions about the strength of the nation’s economic recovery. The strong growth enjoyed during the second half of 2013 has not carried into 2014, despite predictions that this would be a breakout year for the economy. Some analysts have said that the data was skewed by the record-setting extreme winter. The economy has been buffeted by below-zero temperatures, historic snowfalls and disruptive ice storms. More than half of the nation’s lower 48 states were covered in snow early this week, the most since the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration began tracking the data a decade ago. “This is a good, resilient report, especially given the weather,” Labor Secretary Thomas E. Perez said in an interview Friday. “It shows that the economy continues to move in the right direction.” The labor force grew by 264,000 people in February, and more than three-quarters of them were job seekers — a sign that the rapid decline in the size of the workforce may be leveling off. Many of the people who left the workforce were retirees or discouraged workers who had given up hope of finding a job. Their departure helped drive down the unemployment rate even when hiring was weak. If that trend reverses, it could signal that the job market is strong enough to give discouraged workers renewed hope, although economists cautioned it is still too early to tell whether that is occurring. “We could be on the cusp of that,” Logan said. But, he added, “that’s a question that’s not answered by today’s data.” Education continued to be a significant source of new jobs, with the sector adding 33,000 positions in February. The hospitality industry created 25,000 jobs and professional services increased by 79,000. The beleaguered construction sector added 15,000 jobs, but manufacturing remained tepid with just 6,000 positions created. The federal government shed 6,000 positions, but that was offset by hiring at the state and local levels. Investors initially cheered the news as the major U.S. stock indexes opened higher on Friday. But the euphoria wore off as the day progressed. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index eked out a 0.1 percent gain to close at 1,878, while the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average ended modestly, up 0.2 percent to 16,453. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.4 percent. Analysts blamed some of the volatility on traders attempting to parse what the recent data mean for the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program. The stronger outlook for the recovery at the end of last year prompted the Fed to begin scaling back the amount of money it is pumping into the economy. The Fed has bought more than $1 trillion in bonds to help push down long-term interest rates. In congressional testimony last week, Federal Reserve Chair Janet L. Yellen said the central bank would be “attentive to signals” that the recovery could be faltering, but that it is still trying to determine how much the weather has affected the data. Other central bank officials have suggested that the bar for changing plans is high. In an interview with The Washington Post, Atlanta Fed President Dennis P. Lockhart said he expects the data will fluctuate. “The variability that comes sort of normally from quarter to quarter or month to month is not likely in my mind to justify a change,” he said Thursday. “It would have to be fairly material.” The rise in the unemployment rate also gives the Fed more breathing room in its guidance on interest rates. The central bank has promised to keep its target for short-term rates near zero at least until the jobless rate hit 6.5 percent — a threshold that moved further away last month. Still, Fed officials are likely to debate changes to that promise when they meet in Washington later this month. Several key policymakers, including Yellen, have indicated that they would prefer to move away from numerical targets in favor of more qualitative language describing the labor market.

Another worrying chart on China March 14, 2014, 11:00 AM marketwatch Okay, so this isn’t quite the plunge as was seen in Chinese exports (http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/03/10/why-chinas-economy-is-in-trouble-in-one-chart/). But the chart of China’s oil products demand, via the International Energy Agency, should also be cause for concern over economic growth there.

What this shows is that Chinese demand, while certainly not collapsing, isn’t growing as fast. “Having fallen, in yoy terms, in both November and December, a further modest decline is foreseen for January,” the IEA said of Chinese demand growth. “This slowdown reflects a combination of weaker underlying economic growth, as the government attempts to redirect the economy from heavy reliance on exports to domestic consumption, and, at the margin, environmental measures designed to curb air pollution.” Gasoil demand in particular has been weak due to slowing industrial production and as less is needed to move coal around the country. The Chinese picture isn’t all bad — car sales are keeping up gasoline demand there, and jet and kerosene demand also is strong. But then, the question isn’t whether China’s economy is growing. It’s how fast, and worries are growing that Chinese growth might be in the 6% range than the 7.5% the government is officially targeting. Read related post on banks cutting Chinese growth forecasts. (http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/03/14/big-investment-banks-rush-to-cut-china-growth-forecasts/) – Steve Goldstein Lonjakan Ekspor Impor China Mencurigakan Muhammad Abdi Amna – Rabu, 12 Februari 2014, 17:47 WIB Bisnis.com, HONG KONG – Ekspor China pada Januari melampaui perkiraan, sedangkan pertumbuhan impor di luar dugaan mengalami percepatan. Hal ini berlawanan dengan tanda-tanda ekonomi terbesar kedua di dunia sedang kehilangan momentum di tengah upaya menjinakkan kredit. Menurut kantor Administrasi Umum Bea Cukai di Beijing pada Rabu (12/2), pengiriman ke luar negeri naik 10,6% dibandingkan dengan tahun sebelumnya. Namun, peningkatan ini dapat terdistorsi oleh faktur palsu dan masa liburan. Pencapaian itu jauh lebih besar jika dibandingkan dengan proyeksi median ekonom yang memperkirakan kenaikan 0,1%. Kenaikan impor 10%, meninggalkan surplus perdagangan senilai US$31,9 miliar, merupakan yang terbesar untuk periode Januari sejak 2009. “Kami masih mengharapkan ekspor berada pada tren pemulihan, meskipun data utama dalam beberapa bulan mendatang kemungkinan akan tetap terdistorsi dalam skala besar karena kelebihan faktur dari setahun yang lalu,” kata Louis Kuijs, kepala ekonom Royal Bank of Skotlandia Group Plc di Hong Kong. Kekuatan dalam permintaan global dan domestik akan mendukung pertumbuhan yang telah diproyeksikan oleh analis sedang berada dalam laju terlambat selama 24 tahun pada 2014. Pemerintah berusaha untuk menyeimbangkan kredit dengan pengawasan yang keras serta shadow banking dengan mempertahankan laju ekspansi yang wajar. Jika dibandingkan, angka tahun lalu terdistorsi karena adanya faktur palsu untuk menyamarkan arus modal pada 2013 dan perbadaan waktu pada seminggu penuh selama liburan tahun baru Imlek. Sebuah ketidaksesuaian yang sangat lebar antara Hong Kong dan data yang dimiliki oleh China dalam perdagangan bilateral pada Desember, sehingga memicu spekulasi bahwa angka China dilebih-lebihkan dengan ekspor palsu. Bursa AS melesat di New York Rabu, 12 Februari 2014 | 05:48 WIB NEW YORK. Bursa AS melejit pada transaksi penutupan bursa tadi malam (11/2). Mengutip data Bloomberg, pada pukul 16.00 waktu New York, indeks Standard & Poor’s 500 melaju 1,1% menjadi 1.819,75. Dengan demikian, dalam empat hari terakhir, kenaikan indeks S&P sudah mencapai 3,9%. Sedangkan indeks Dow Jones menanjak 1,2% menjadi 15.994,77. Transaksi tadi malam melibatkan sekitar 7 miliar saham. Angka tersebut 11% lebih tinggi dari tingkat rata-rata volume transaksi 30 harian. Pergerakan sejumlah saham turut mempengaruhi bursa AS. Beberapa di antaranya: Cliffs Natural Resources Inc dan Mosaic Co yang naik lebih dari 2,4%. Selain itu, ada saham Boeing Co dan Goldman Sachs Group Inc yang naik 2,1%. Sedangkan Sprint Corp naik 2,7% dan CVS Caremark Corp naik 2,7%. Wajah bursa AS terlihat sumringah terdongkrak pernyataan Janet Yellen di hadapan Kongres AS tadi malam. “Pasar menyukai konsistensi dan apa yang kita dengar tadi pagi cukup konsisten dengan apa yang kita dengar berbulan-bulan yang lalu,” jelas Steven Rees, head of US equities JPMorgan Private Bank. Dia menambahkan, Yellen menegaskan bahwa tapering akan terus dilanjutkan, namun tergantung kepada outlook perekonomian. Seperti yang diberitakan sebelumnya, Yellen -yang tadi malam menyampaikan pernyataan publik pertama kali sebagai pimpinan the Fed- mengatakan bahwa guncangan pasar finansial tidak menimbulkan risiko besar terhadap outlook perekonomian AS. Namun, “Meski pertumbuhan ekonomi meningkat, pemulihan di pasar tenaga kerja AS masih jauh dari kata selesai. Saya berkomitmen utuk mencapai dua target utama yakni membantu perekonomian sehingga bisa menciptakan lapangan pekerjaan bagi warga AS dan mengembalikan tingkat inflasi ke level 2% dan memastikan inflasi tidak akan melonjak di atas level tersebut,” papar Yellen. Editor: Barratut Taqiyyah As Yellen makes Fed debut, expect theater, not fireworks BY JONATHAN SPICER Sun Feb 9, 2014 7:17am EST (Reuters) – Janet Yellen’s first test as chair of the Federal Reserve comes on Tuesday when she faces U.S. lawmakers, some hostile to the central bank, who will want to know how committed she is to winding down the Fed’s support for the economy. With the world’s financial markets watching, Yellen, who succeeded Ben Bernanke last week, will have a chance to set a mostly upbeat tone and point to signs of steady economic progress, despite some recent bumps in the road. The Fed has embarked on perhaps its most difficult policy shift after five years of ultra-easy money. It has begun scaling back its bond-buying stimulus, but at a measured pace that could frustrate some Republicans who think the program is reckless. Those concerns will be aired on Tuesday, when Yellen appears before the Republican-controlled House Financial Services Committee to testify on the Fed’s semiannual monetary policy report. Her testimony will be released at 8:30 a.m., although the hearing does not begin until 10 a.m. She testifies to the Democrat-controlled Senate Banking Committee on Thursday. The Fed has trimmed its asset purchases twice since December, encouraged by momentum in the economy late last year. But two months of weak U.S. jobs growth, a slump in manufacturing and a recent selloff in emerging markets now complicate things for the new Fed chief. Yellen, the former Fed vice chair who is the first woman to run the central bank in its 100-year history, is expected to calmly point to a longer-term trend toward improvement in the labor market and to low but stable inflation as reasons for cautious optimism and for steady reductions in the stimulus. Long concerned with the pain the 2007-2009 recession caused for American workers, she will also probably stress that near-zero interest rates will not be raised any time soon. “I don’t think there’s anything she’s not going to be ready for,” said Paul Ashworth, chief North American economist at research firm Capital Economics. “These are sometimes political theater,” he added. “It’s a mid-term election year … so you are going to get some grandstanding from both sides.” REPUBLICANS VS FED Underlining Republican unease with the Fed’s aggressive response to the financial crisis and recession, the House panel invited witnesses to react to Yellen’s testimony immediately afterward. Three of the four are critics of the bond-buying program, including Stanford University’s John Taylor. Conservatives worry the years of near-zero interest rates and trillions of dollars in money-printing risk weakening the U.S. dollar, while setting the stage for asset price bubbles and an explosion in inflation. Jeb Hensarling, chairman of the House committee, has been holding hearings on the asset purchases, which are currently running at $65 billion per month. In the Senate, fellow Republican Rand Paul wants to establish audits of the Fed’s policy deliberations – a notion Bernanke and others have slammed as a threat to central bank independence from politics. Committee Republicans said they want Yellen to give details on how she will balance the Fed’s responsibilities to keep inflation in check while pushing for full employment. “I’m sure she’ll be hearing questions on the lack of effective monetary policy and the impact going forward,” said Rep. Scott Garrett, the Republican chairman of the Financial Services’ capital markets subcommittee. Another Republican panel member, Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, said Yellen must do more to help senior citizens build safe investment returns. “No one can create any wealth with interest rates squashed as they are,” she said. PARSING HER WORDS For all the criticism, most economists blame Congress for slowing the U.S. recovery from recession with cuts to government spending, tax increases and a series of budget battles that tested investors’ confidence in the United States. Frustrated with the recovery, the Fed has launched three rounds of asset purchases, swelling its balance sheet to more than $4 trillion. If the labor market doesn’t stumble badly and inflation doesn’t weaken, the Fed aims to shelve the purchases by year end and will likely raise rates sometime next year. The trick for Yellen will be clearly articulating this on live television in a pressure-filled question-and-answer session that is likely to cover anything from Wall Street regulation to fiscal policy and the gold standard. Markets will be keenly attuned after a few weeks of high volatility sparked by drops in emerging-market currencies, and after a decidedly mixed batch of U.S. data that has raised questions over the economy’s strength. “We’ll all be trying to get a sense of how the Fed is reading recent developments,” said Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at Chicago-based Northern Trust. “We have had some news that while it is almost certainly affected by the weather, it has not been robust.” While it is her first public appearance since a Senate nomination hearing in November, Yellen’s style is well known on Wall Street after more than three years as the central bank’s No. 2 official and six years running the San Francisco Fed. In November, she made plain that aggressive efforts to spur growth and hiring remained important. This week, she will probably try to again stick to the script ahead of chairing her first Fed policy-setting meeting on March 18-19. Capito said that while she would like Yellen to give more specific answers to questions than her predecessor did, the new chair will likely be spared the contentious jabs Bernanke took from committee Republicans. “She will be treated respectfully,” Capito said. “I don’t think there will be a lot of fireworks.” Kamis, 30 Januari 2014, 22:36 WIB Ekonomi AS Semakin Kuat Amanda Kusumawardhani Bisnis.com, WASHINGTON — Ekonomi Amerika Serikat semakin menggeliat tahun ini setelah tumbuh 3,2% pada kuartal IV/2013 yang ditopang oleh meningkatnya konsumsi domestik. Laju peningkatan produk domestik bruto (PDB) Amerika Serikat sesuai dengan perkiraan sejumlah ekonom yang disurvei Bloomberg yaitu 3,2%. Departemen Perdagangan AS juga menunjukkan pertumbuhan serupa sebesar 4,1% pada kuartal sebelumnya. Pertumbuhan ekonomi pada semester kedua pada 2013 merupakan yang tertinggi sejak 6 bulan yang berakhir Maret 2012. Sebelum laporan ini keluar, konsumsi masyarakat dilaporkan melesat 3,3% pada kuartal IV/2013. Kenaikan konsumsi masyarakat tersebut rupanya telah menolong aksi penghematan yang dilakukan Pemerintah AS terkait government shutdown pada Oktober tahun lalu. Penguatan perekonomian AS yang ditandai dengan berkurangnya tantangan fiskal dan perbaikan pada ketersediaan lapangan pekerjaan diperkirakan bakal mempertahankan konsumsi masyarakat dan perusahaan pada tahun ini. Selain itu, alasan tersebut merupakan alasan terkuat The Fed tetap melanjutkan rencananya untuk mengurangi stimulus alias tapering. “Cukup ada indikasi keseimbangan pada penguatan ekonomi AS,” ungkap Kepala Ekonom HS Inc.di Lexington, Massachusetts Nariman Behravesh, Kamis (30/1). Dirinya mengatakan konsumsi masyarakat tumbuh pesat dan faktor pendorong pertumbuhan mulai beranjak naik, antara lain meningkatnya belanja modal dan ekspor. Departemen Ketenagakerjaan AS juga mencatat angka bekerja AS meningkat menjadi 348.000 orang dari 19.000 orang. Kinerja perbaikan pada pengentasan pengangguran AS merupakan yang tertinggi sejak pertengahan Desember 2013. Sementara itu, perkiraan median ekonom yang disurvei Bloomberg menunjukkan penaikan berada pada angka 33.000 orang. (Bloomberg) US QE potential risks on emerging markets (Xinhua) Updated: 2014-01-27 10:43 DAVOS – The spillover effects on emerging markets caused by the tapering of US quantitative easing (QE) could be varied from country to country, participants to the World Economic Forum (WEF)’s Davos meeting said Saturday. Late last year, the Federal Reserve (FED) announced a “modest reduction” in monthly asset purchases. The official kick-off of the American central bank’s gradual exit from the five-yearlong stimulus was feared to throw the global markets, especially the emerging markets, into volatility, which has naturally become a hot topic in the annual gathering of global elites amid the expectation of a fragile recovery in global economy. Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said on a plenary session of the four-day event in Davos this afternoon that in May last year when the hint of FED to gradually wind down its asset purchase gave the markets a heavy blow, the actual flow of capitals (from emerging economies) has not been not that big, and not all emerging markets have been effected in the same way. “Markets and investors are very cunning, they look at the fundamentals of economies, look at the strength of government, look at the predictability of policies, look at the policy-making, and they decide to move in, to stay, (or) to move out. There are countries that have hardly any currency movement, and there are countries that have seen significant currency movement as the result of the talk of tapering and subsequently the announcement in December”, said the head of IMF. She then emphasized that what has been happening between May and December, the official announcement of US unwinding of QE, has been beneficial for many countries, having taken India as an example to explain the impact of monetary policy, and as well as reaffirmation of fiscal policy on how prepared of the South-Asian country, which was greatly hit in May the rupee fell to a record low later, to the potential risks at present. Palaniappan Chidambaram, Finance Minister of India, said earlier at the Davos meeting that developing economies would feel the certain pinch of the tapering, and India is better prepared than last year with its estimated strong economic growth this year, fiscal consolidation, reserves’ augmentation, and other measures to stabilize its capital market. “The risks associated with emerging markets remain high, but the way in which QE tapering is applied can play a role in either enabling growth or throwing currencies and economies into turmoil,” FTI Consulting said in a report published at the beginning of this year’s event. The company warned that inflation destabilization and the rising costs of borrowing can be possible threats to emerging economies should they give poor responses. China’s banks must evolve or perish (Xinhua) Updated: 2014-01-27 02:08 BEIJING – As China’s traditional banks raise interest rates to claw back lost deposits, they must find new profit sources as Internet finance is booming. Earlier this week, the China Construction Bank, the Agricultural Bank of China and the Bank of Communications raised the deposit rate by 10 percent to the upper limit in some branches, for some clients, or for a fixed period. Experts see this as an attempt to restore some of the deposits that have been diverted into Internet products such as Yu’E Bao, a personal online finance product by Internet giant Alibaba which allows users to place any amount of savings into a money market fund. At the end of 2013, Yu’E Bao had 43 million users with aggregate deposits of 185 billion yuan (about $31 billion), the single biggest public fund in China. “Although the rate increase might not bring back deposits that had gone to the Internet, it is still attractive to clients who make daily capital demands on banks,” said Guo Tianyong, a professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics. In the short term, banks might face liquidity problems due to the competition from Internet finance, Guo warned. “This would also serve as a wake-up call that there are no more easy profits for banks in China, solely on deposits, loans and remittances,” said Guo. “They must promote intermediary business and wealth management and provide all-round service to clients.” In previous years, banks often saw their profits grow 30 to 40 percent annually, according to Zong Liang, deputy head of the international finance institute of the Bank of China, but as the financial sector is liberalized it becomes difficult, forcing banks to be more innovative, said Zong. Even before the emergence of Internet finance, profit growth was slowing down. In 2012, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and the China Construction Bank saw their profits grow by 14.5 percent and 14.3 percent respectively, sharply down from the 36 percent and 34 percent in 2008. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), the central bank, has already initiated liberalization of the financial sector. In June 2012, the PBOC announced that the upper limit of the floating band of deposit rates would be adjusted to 1.1 times the benchmark, or up 10 percent at most. Guo saw the rate increase as a “rehearsal” for banks ahead of total liberalization of interest rates, to prepare themselves for the future. Interest rate freedom means the future is not all rosy for the new Internet financiers either, such as Yu’E Bao, who invested more than 80 percent of its fund into an “agreement deposit,” using the interest rate spread to make a profit. Interest rate liberalization would make it impossible for Yu’E Bao to make profits this way. They too must explore new ways of making profits or find their current high rate of return unsustainable, said Guo. China reveals 2014 financial reform priorities (Xinhua) Updated: 2014-01-26 10:36 BEIJING – China’s four major financial authorities have announced their priorities for 2014. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), the central bank, will continue to expand the cross-border use of the Chinese currency, the Renminbi, this year. At the same time, it will stick to prudent monetary policy and maintain steady credit growth, improve the multi-tier capital market, and engage further in international financial regulation policy-making. The China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) will pilot three to five private banks that will bear their own risk, opening up the banking sector to domestic and foreign private capital. The banking industry watchdog will gradually reduce the threshold for foreign banks to enter the banking sector and ease their RMB operation requirements. The CBRC will keep a close eye on major housing developers, and reduce the risk of default through weak links in the construction industry’s money chain. Also on the banking regulator’s radar are restructuring and technological upgrades in overcapacity industries, liquidating their assets and reducing the risk of default. In pursuit of a more efficient market, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) will switch IPOs from the current approval system to one based on registration. Under the new system, the timing of IPOs and how shares are issued will be determined by the market, as long as issuers disclose all relevant information as required. In order to streamline approval procedures, the CSRC will also abolish approval requirements on 21 items over the next three years starting from 2014. The China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) is considering catastrophe insurance for those hit by disasters. The CIRC will join with the finance and other ministries to work on implementation plans for catastrophe insurance this year. The commission also intends to set up food liability insurance in 2014, given the importance of food safety in China. Bank di China Alami Krisis Likuiditas? Oleh: Wahid Ma’ruf pasarmodal – Senin, 27 Januari 2014 | 12:51 WIB INILAH.COM, Hong Kong – Kekhawatiran krisis likuiditas di Cina muncul lagi Senin (27/1/2014). Pemicunya situs Citibank mengunggah pemberitahuan transfer dari dolar ke yuan tertunda. “Ini merupakan bagian dari pemeliharaan rutin kami setelah selama periode tahunan menjelang Tahun Baru China,” kata Richard Tesvich, juru bicara Citigroup seperti mengutip cnbc.com. Penundaan transfer dana awalnya dikeluhkan dalam kolom di web majalah Forbes. Hal ini mulai memicu kekhawatiran potensi krisis likuiditas secara nasional di Negeri Tirai Bambu tersebut. Walaupun link di situ Forbus tidak lagi berfungsi. Beberapa komentar di Twitter mengklaim cerita tersebut telah dihapus pihak terkait. “Alasan khusus yang diberikan dengan pemeliharaan sistem di bank sentral tidak masuk akal. Pemberitahuan pemeliharaan sistem hari ini adalah tanda mendasar suatu masalah,” tulis Gordon Chang di web Forbes. Menurut dia, bagi bank sangat membutuhkan uang tunai untuk rollover dengan semakin meningkatnya jumlah kredit bermasalah dan produk wealth management. Sementara petugas bank di Citigroup China mengatakan pelanggan masih dapat melakukan transfer sampai hari kerja pada tanggal 30 Januari. Tetapi bank tutup saat libur panjang tahun baru Imlek. Sementara bursa saham Asia mengalami pelemahan tajam pada perdagangan Senin pagi. Investor mengkhawatirkan kebijakan pengetatan moneter dan kredit di China dan AS. Indeks Nikkei melemah 2,4$, indeks Hang Seng turun 2,2%,, indeks Shanghai melemah 0,8%, indeks Kospi turun 1,4%. Sementara indeks ASX tutup bersamaan dengan libur nasional.

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Report this ad September 18, 2015September 18, 2015 163 Minutes

catatan kasar JO @ekonomi global: jatuh hat1 (07 September 2015) JO’s NOTE: secara kasar (n sederhana): ekonomi global sedang dalam TRANSISI … as a simple title of my note: global economy in transition perubahan yang tampak: ekonomi amrik sedang TUMBUH, ekonomi China merosot, ekonomi zona euro mendatar, ekonomi negara berkembang (emerging markets) MELAMBAT, Jepang berfluktuasi cenderung melambat lage, begitu lah … the major changes: US economy is growing, Chinese economy is downgrading, eurozone economy is flat, emerging markets economy is slowing, Japan’s economy is fluctuating tend to slow as well mata uang terkuat saat ini: US Dollar … the greenback is in it’s best price compared to other currencies gejala utama perdagangan dunia: HARGA KOMODITAS terutama MINYAK n TAMBANG merosot … the major change in global trade: COMMODITY PRICE decreasing significantly, especially the oil n mining sectors gejala tambahan perdagangan dunia: EKSPOR ambles … the additional phenomenon of global trade: decrease in global exports gejala pemberat perdagangan dunia: cuaca ekstrim, harga komoditas pertanian INFLATOIR … the weighty sign of global trade to come: extreme climate chane, the agriculture commodity price will rise significantly gejala moneter: DEVALUASI mata uang (terutama saat ini Jepang n China) … the global monetarian significancy: currency war (devaluation in Yuan n Yen) kesimpulan sederhana n kasar: ekonomi global BERGESER BALEK K AMRIK … the simple conclusion : global economy is going back to the USA importance solusi jangka pendek: kebijakan The Fed makin strategis, yaitu MENJAGA STRONG DOLLAR tidak menjadi STRONGER DOLLAR yaitu dengan cara PENGETATAN MONETER tapi MENGENDALIKAN INFLASI agar IMPOR NEGARA2 BERKEMBANG K AMRIK KEMBALI MAMPU MENINGKATKAN EKSPOR NEGARA BERKEMBANG sehingga pertumbuhan ekonomi negara berkembang kembali MENGUAT … short time solution for the global economy: the fed policy is increasing important to apply, that is to contain the us dollar strengthening not to become THE STRONGER DOLLAR. Monetarian tightening to contain the inflation so that the IMPORTATION OF EMERGING MARKET PRODUCTS may sustain solusi jangka panjang: kebijakan STRONG US DOLLAR akan menjadi WEAK US DOLLAR dalam 5 taon ke depan … the long time solution: in 5 years, the weaker us dollar may come again ……….1111111111111…………… MARKETWATCH –Last week we wrote a column discussing the devaluation in the Chinese yuan and the “reasons” behind the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) allowing the yuan to devalue. What we learned from this column was that, try as they might, the PBOC cannot control the value of the yuan, and ultimately the driving force behind the value of the yuan is the will of the market. Since the yuan was devalued, we have seen a stock-market crash and huge swings in just about every foreign currency. Many pundits, of course, have claimed that the devaluation of the yuan was the proximate cause of the movements in the equities and currency markets. Unfortunately, they may need to re-evaluate their definition of “proximate cause,” as the equity movements occurred more than a week after the devaluation occurred. Interestingly enough, during this market turmoil, the yuan itself has barely budged. Does this mean that the PBOC has things back under control? Has the currency war crisis been averted, or are we simply dealing with the market forces at work again? Let’s start by looking at what happened to the U.S. Dollar index during this “crash” in the equities market. The U.S. Dollar Index which is comprised of a basket of six foreign currencies was actually down close to 6%. However, the dollar/yuan (USD/CNY) currency pair has hardly moved during this same time period. Of course, since the value of the U.S. dollar was going down, and not up, it would make sense that the USD/CNY currency pair would also move down during this same time period. But the USD/CNY has not fallen nearly as dramatically as the U.S. Dollar Index as a whole for the simple reason that we are in differing wave degrees of correction. The USD/CNY is in a very minor fourth wave corrective pattern, whereas the U.S. Dollar Index is in a larger-degree fourth-wave corrective pattern. Now at ElliottWaveTrader.net, we had actually been expecting this corrective drop in the DXY to occur. Similarly we also expected the price of the USD/CNY to consolidate at the current levels. So neither the drop in the U.S. Dollar Index nor the consolidation of the USD/CNY came as a surprise. We are now expecting that the DXY will start a large rally to the upside that should eclipse the March high of 100.27. We have to ask what will this increased pressure on the U.S. Dollar Index do to the price of the USD/CNY.

Well as we can see on our USD/CNY pair in the chart linked below, the current pattern is extremely bullish. This pair is currently in a bullish consolidation pattern that will most likely resolve to the upside in a very strong manner. Of course, the next move will likely come in the form of another “surprise” to most. In reality it will occur when the PBOC once again finds the forces of the market too great to overcome and is unwilling to continue selling their foreign-currency reserves to artificially keep the price of the USD/CNY pair depressed. So while we cannot predict when this will occur, we can predict with a fairly high level of confidence that it will occur sometime in the not-so-distant future and causing the pundits to once again raise the alarms for an all-out currency war in China. See charts illustrating the wave counts on the USD/CNY. Co-written by Avi Gilburt and Michael Golembesky from ElliottWaveTrader.net. August 28, 2015 12:35 am JST Nouriel Roubini nikkei asian review

A Financial Early-Warning System NEW YORK — Recent market volatility – in emerging and developed economies alike – is showing once again how badly ratings agencies and investors can err in assessing countries’ economic and financial vulnerabilities. Ratings agencies wait too long to spot risks and downgrade countries, while investors behave like herds, often ignoring the build-up of risk for too long, before shifting gears abruptly and causing exaggerated market swings. Given the nature of market turmoil, an early-warning system for financial tsunamis may be difficult to create; but the world needs one today more than ever. Few people foresaw the subprime crisis of 2008, the risk of default in the eurozone, or the current turbulence in financial markets worldwide. Fingers have been pointed at politicians, banks, and supranational institutions. But ratings agencies and analysts who misjudged the repayment ability of debtors – including governments – have gotten off too lightly. In principle, credit ratings are based on statistical models of past defaults; in practice, however, with few national defaults having actually occurred, sovereign ratings are often a subjective affair. Analysts at ratings agencies follow developments in the country for which they are responsible and, when necessary, travel there to review the situation. This process means that ratings are often backward-looking, downgrades occur too late, and countries are typically rerated based on when analysts visit, rather than when fundamentals change. Moreover, ratings agencies lack the tools to track consistently vital factors such as changes in social inclusion, the country’s ability to innovate, and privatesector balance-sheet risk. And yet sovereign ratings matter tremendously. For many investors, credit ratings dictate where and how much they can invest. Ratings affect how much banks are willing to lend, and how much developing countries – and their citizens – must pay to borrow. They inform corporations’ decisions regarding whom to do business with, and on what terms. Tokyo, Aug. 25 (Jiji Press)–Recent global stock market sell-offs reflecting China’s economic slowdown have begun to give rise to concerns about the possibly fading effects of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic policy mix, dubbed Abenomics. Financial market participants and officials in the Liberal Democratic Party-led ruling coalition are now calling on the government to take economy-boosting measures. The stock market plunge could help weaken the so-called wealth effects of stimulating consumption by rich people through a rise in asset prices while leading to a spike in the yen against other currencies, a development that would dampen exports by Japanese companies. On the Tokyo Stock Exchange, the key 225-issue Nikkei average plunged 733.98 points, or 3.96 pct, to end at 17,806.70 on Tuesday, the lowest closing since Feb. 10, after nose-diving 895.15 points on Monday, which was the steepest decline since May 23, 2013. When the Abe administration was launched in December 2012, the dollar stood at levels above 80 yen. (2015/08/25-20:26)

South-east Asia’s currencies are plunging like its 1998

The rupiah and ringgit plumb depths unseen since the Asian financial crisis

This article was originally published in last week’s print edition. However, since Tuesday, many south-east Asia currencies, as well as China’s, have fallen sharply in value (see chart). Since this article is so relevant to the events of the past week, we decided to republish it on the blog: NOT since Bill Clinton was president and Barack Obama was a law professor with a sideline in local politics have the beaches of Bali and Langkawi looked so inviting to Americans. Four years ago, a dollar fetched just over 8,500 Indonesian rupiah, and just under three Malaysian ringgit. Today a dollar is worth nearly 14,000 rupiah and almost four ringgit. Both currencies hit 17-year lows this summer, and kept falling (see chart). In one sense, Indonesia and Malaysia are far from unique: declining commodity prices, the slowdown in China and the growing likelihood of an interest-rate rise in America have combined to make 2015 a miserable year for emerging-market currencies. Brazil and Russia are in recession, sending the real and the rouble falling. Turkey, with its slowing economy, huge currentaccount deficit and growing political instability, has seen the lira decline steeply; the Chilean, Colombian and Mexican pesos have all drooped. But in Asia the rupiah and ringgit lead the race downwards, having fallen by 8.4% and 9.8% against the dollar this year—much further than the Thai baht (6.4%) and the Philippine peso (2.2%). Their problems are exacerbated not just by the Indonesian and Malaysian economies’ heavy dependence on commodities, but also by political ructions in both countries. Start with commodities. The halving of oil prices over the past year has harmed Malaysia, which depends on oil for about 30% of its revenue. Indonesia is a net importer of oil, but other commodities still comprise around 60% of its exports—a worry, given that The Economist’s commodity index, which excludes oil, has declined by almost 20% over the past year. Thailand and the Philippines, in contrast, both have sizeable advanced manufacturing sectors: their top exports are computers and electronic components. China’s slower growth and waning appetite for commodities have also been a drag on Malaysia and Indonesia. China is the top destination for exports from the Philippines too, but remittances from the millions of Filipinos working abroad have helped prop up domestic demand, thus cushioning the blow of falling income from exports. Indonesia’s current-account deficit and the big share of its government debt in foreign hands will make it particularly susceptible to capital outflows in the event of a rate rise in America. (Foreigners also own a lot of Malaysia’s debt.) Even more worrying, much Indonesian borrowing, both corporate and sovereign, is dollar-denominated, meaning that as the rupiah falls the cost of debt service rises. In response to these woes, Indonesia has fallen back on protectionism, as usual: in July it imposed import tariffs on a range of consumer goods, including coffee, cars and condoms. Despite much talk from the president, Joko Widodo, about upgrading his country’s infrastructure, little has been done. He came into office nearly a year ago with great promise, but some investors have started to wonder whether he is up to the job of pushing through the reforms his country desperately needs. As for Malaysia, its foreign reserves look set to drop below $100 billion, depriving it of a much-needed buffer, and suggesting the government may have tried to prop up the ringgit. The woes of its prime minister, Najib Razak, who for months has been trying to dispel allegations of corruption, may intensify investors’ jitters. The question now, for both countries, is how long the pain will last. Many predict that commodity prices will rebound; fewer predict when. In the meantime, depreciation should make their exports more competitive, but low commodity prices seem to be offsetting that gain. Indonesia is growing at the slowest pace since 2009. The falling currencies in both places are also stoking inflation. Whenever the Fed gets around to raising rates, these ailments will presumably worsen. bumi2009fans

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September 7, 2015September 7, 2015

8 Minutes

the dying currency : US$ : Jatuh Hati (26 Agustus 2015) Niall Ferguson on the Ascent of Money ‘We Need New Banks’ In a SPIEGEL interview, Harvard historian Niall Ferguson discusses the turbulent history of money, the inevitability of financial crises and the fatal influence mathematicians have on the monetary system. SPIEGEL: Professor Ferguson, can you show us the contents of your wallet? Ferguson: If you like, sure. Have a look. I have about a hundred dollars on me. SPIEGEL: Why do people consider such green-printed pieces of paper to be so valuable? Ferguson: These pieces of paper are also promissory notes. Four thousand years ago in ancient Babylon, clay tablets fulfilled this role. Nowadays we use banknotes. They are only worth what other people are willing to give you in exchange for them. Money is about trust, no matter what form it takes, be it clay, gold, paper, or a computer monitor with a liquid crystal display. SPIEGEL: The dollar has lost about 86 percent of its purchasing power in the last half-century. Why doesn’t depreciation of this scale shatter confidence in paper money? Ferguson: It’s simple: Because paper money is so easy to use. It gives people an exchangeable commodity and a mathematical unit that is standardized and generally accepted. That’s something we’re willing to accept a certain amount of inflation for. It’s the price we pay for having a system of paper money. SPIEGEL: The purely paper-based system is not all that old. The dollar was pegged to gold until 1971. Aren’t precious metals a far better form of payment? Ferguson: It does indeed appear attractive to have gold in your portfolio these days, and gold does have a special allure. I recently saw the death mask of Agamemnon in Athens. Although it was made in the 16th century before Christ, it’s lost none of its splendor. Nevertheless, I don’t think gold will ever have a monetary role again. For example, think how impractical it would have been if you’d had to pay for your flight to Boston using gold. How much was it? SPIEGEL: Just under 400 euros. Ferguson: At current prices, that’s the equivalent of almost half an ounce of gold, that is, about 15 grams. Now just imagine you had to pay for a single apple. SPIEGEL: And yet there was a close relationship between money and precious metals for centuries — millenia even. Why was the link broken? Ferguson: Because it proved to be an extremely inflexible system. If the overall volume of money depends on the availability of precious metals, it can’t simply be increased. So a shortage of gold or silver can limit economic growth. The link to gold brings with it a danger of deflation, in other words a constant drop in prices which would hobble the economy. The gold standard was one of the causes of the deflation Germany suffered in the early 1930s, for example. SPIEGEL: You mean that the demise of the Weimar Republic was caused in part by financial factors? Ferguson: Germany’s financial history played a significant part in Adolf Hitler’s rise to power. At the beginning of the 20th century Germany had the world’s best education system, a democratic tradition of sorts, and universal suffrage. Why then did fascism spread in Germany? To a large extent because of the series of financial traumas the country had suffered in quick succession: The hyperinflation of 1922-23 and the deflation that accompanied the global financial crisis of 1929. SPIEGEL: Then what role, if any, does money play in our history? 26/8/2015 Druckversion – Niall Ferguson on the Ascent of Money: ‘We Need New Banks’ – SPIEGEL ONLINE – International http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/niall-ferguson-onthe-ascent-of-money-we-need-new-banks-a-649036-druck.html (http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/niall-ferguson-on-the-ascent-of-money-we-need-new-banks-a-649036-druck.html) 2/5 Ferguson: The ascent of Man is coupled with an increase in the importance of money. Barter — the direct exchange of one commodity for another — was not particularly efficient. The shortcomings began to appear with the division of labor, when some people became farmers, some craftsmen, and others traders. Money helped them do business with one another. I believe that money is the source — or rather the midwife — of nearly every advance throughout history. SPIEGEL: That’s an interesting theory. Can you prove it? Ferguson: The glory of Florence, the boom in architecture and in the art market during the Renaissance, for instance, was based on the fact that the Medicis were bankers and had made their fortune exchanging money. Without the Medicis, Botticelli might not have got the opportunity to paint some of his most famous paintings. Or take the French Revolution. This was at least indirectly a consequence of the financial straits the monarchy had got into because of “Sun King” Louis XIV’s military campaigns. Napoleon’s defeat at Waterloo in 1815 is another example. The battle was partly a clash between two financial systems. The French financed their military conflicts through plunder, while the British used the bond market and took out loans. This helped Britain develop into a superpower. ‘The Ascent Is Never Entirely Straight’ SPIEGEL: It sounds as if much of the history of money revolves around funding warfare. Ferguson: The demands of war did indeed play a major role. Perhaps states first started taking out loans when the Venetians discovered in the 13th century that they could finance their wars more easily by borrowing money from their citizens rather than taxing them. Therein lie the roots of the bond market. There’s a financial secret behind every major historical event. SPIEGEL: Surely there must also be other influences on the progression of history; technical innovation, for example. Doesn’t money tend to exert a more destructive influence? Ferguson: I think the development of monetary systems can best be compared to a mountain range. The ascent is never entirely straight, and there are drops — some of them steep — in between, but in the long run the direction is clearly upward. Even Germans who had lived through the great inflation, the deflation, and the 1948 currency reforms subsequently experienced greater prosperity than at the start of the 20th century. SPIEGEL: You could just as easily claim that the history of money is a series of disasters, state bankruptcies, and loss of value, couldn’t you? Ferguson: If you do that, you’re only focusing on the crisis-ridden moments in history. That’s understandable because stock-market crashes and currency plunges are headline-grabbing. However the reality is that those sort of events are the exception, and stability is the rule, even though it makes for far more boring reading. SPIEGEL: But wouldn’t you say that our life is primarily shaped by individual disasters, whose origins may also be financial in nature? Aren’t such crises inevitable? Ferguson: It’s hard to imagine a financial system that would never be threatened with collapse. That’s mainly because of human nature. We often make false assumptions about the future. Our brains are not exactly on a par with 21st-century computers. We’re better suited to hunting wild animals in the Serengeti. Our perception is extremely selective, and our attitudes change sporadically. One minute we’re greedy, the next we’re afraid. SPIEGEL: Is such irrational behavior the reason we recognize the symptoms of crises too late? Ferguson: In most cases. Instability has been a part of the financial system ever since the ancient Mesopotamians started calculating the price of grain based on how good they expected the next harvest to be. As you know, the experts also got their predictions wrong about the present financial crisis. SPIEGEL: What aspects of the current financial crisis are similar to earlier ones? Ferguson: The source of the crisis is typical: It began with a glut of cheap money, loans were easy to get, and a bubble developed — in this case in the US housing market — that eventually burst. 26/8/2015 Druckversion – Niall Ferguson on the Ascent of Money: ‘We Need New Banks’ – SPIEGEL ONLINE – International http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/niall-ferguson-onthe-ascent-of-money-we-need-new-banks-a-649036-druck.html (http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/niall-ferguson-on-the-ascent-of-money-we-need-new-banks-a-649036-druck.html) 3/5 SPIEGEL: Could this bubble have been prevented? Ferguson: It’s hard to say when exactly a bubble has got too big. Some bubbles don’t burst at all, but merely remain at about the same size. Others keep expanding for a long time, and then burst with a real bang. In 1996 the then chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, warned about “irrational exuberance,” but the Internet bubble continued to grow for another four years. SPIEGEL: Experts had also been warning about the US housing bubble for years, but few people could have guessed what global consequences its collapse would bring. What’s special about this crisis in particular? Ferguson: Firstly, derivatives played an exceptional role, especially credit default swaps. Secondly, the rating agencies made a remarkable error: They gave only a handful of companies the top credit rating, but rated as harmless thousands of structured financial products that turned out to be extremely dubious. SPIEGEL: What’s going to happen to the financial system? How will it change? Ferguson: As far as I understand it, financial history is essentially the result of natural selection. The crisis is a part of this evolutionary process, and natural selection within the market is its driving force. Changing conditions may cause complex systems to collapse. Just like the dinosaurs, the major financial institutions are now also having difficulties coping with a dramatic change in their environment. ‘It’s Not About More Regulation, but About Better Regulation’ SPIEGEL: So you believe that, just like in nature, only the fittest and most adaptable survive in the financial world. Ferguson: In principle, yes. The players are competing for limited resources. Some of them succeed through innovation and thus prevent a monoculture from developing. SPIEGEL: German President Horst Köhler said, “The financial markets have become a monster that needs to be cut down to size.” Ferguson: That was a foolish comment. You could just as easily claim democracy was a monster. Our financial markets are simply a reflection of our economic activity, and it’s not the mirror’s fault if it reflects our flaws. We shouldn’t demonize the financial markets. We’re just experiencing the markets getting rid of all that is “unadapted and non-viable,” as the economist Joseph Schumpeter once put it. SPIEGEL: But this process is rather painful. Couldn’t greater state control have prevented the worst excesses? Is deregulation therefore to blame for the financial crisis? Ferguson: That is the popular argument. I think it’s nonsense. The process of deregulation began as far back as the early 80s, and the global economy has experienced a huge upswing since then. Apart from that there were also financial problems in the decades before that, when the markets were far more tightly regulated. Overall, banks are some of the most tightly-controlled institutions, and yet that’s where the crisis began. Mortgage bank Fannie Mae, for example, operates under direct oversight from the US Congress. It’s therefore not about more regulation, but about better regulation. SPIEGEL: What should banking regulators watch out for? Ferguson: They should pay closer attention to liquidity. The banks issued longterm loans, but could only procure the money for themselves on a short-term basis. Many institutions racked up huge debts — sometimes 30 or 40 times more than their equity capital. If you then get a bottleneck in short-term credit, such behavior inevitably leads to a collapse. In addition, the regulators mustn’t let banks get too big. Right now, many major institutions are practically bankrupt. They are zombie banks: half dead, but also half alive thanks to cash injections from the state. We have to think seriously about how long we can afford to continue this policy. SPIEGEL: Are you suggesting the state should let problem banks fail? 26/8/2015 Druckversion – Niall Ferguson on the Ascent of Money: ‘We Need New Banks’ – SPIEGEL ONLINE – International http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/niall-ferguson-onthe-ascent-of-money-we-need-new-banks-a-649036-druck.html (http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/niall-ferguson-on-the-ascent-of-money-we-need-new-banks-a-649036-druck.html) 4/5 Ferguson: Some are probably too big for that. But they should be wound up in a controlled manner. If they keep receiving state aid, the subsidies will distort the competition. The success of the financial system is gauged by its innovativeness. We need new banks. And we must look for ways to develop our monetary system. SPIEGEL: What do you mean by that? Ferguson: The fates of many of the world’s economies are pegged to the development of the dollar at the present time. If the dollar loses value, which is highly likely, it will be particularly painful for countries like Japan and Germany, whose exports will become more expensive. So it should be in Germany’s interest in particular that the monetary system is changed. SPIEGEL: What might such a new system look like? Ferguson: Perhaps a little like the situation in the 19th century, when there were several reserve currencies: sterling, the US dollar, the German mark, and the French franc. As such, the dollar’s dominance could well diminish in favor of the euro, the Japanese yen, or the Chinese currency; the yuan. SPIEGEL: Does that mean that we can learn from the history of financial crises and that of money? Ferguson: Of course we can learn from the past. Ever since the Great Depression we have known how dangerous banking crises are. We can thank our lucky stars that the US Federal Reserve is chaired by Ben Bernanke, a man who spent his entire academic career studying the minutiae of the 1930s Depression. That’s why he knew exactly what to do when crisis hit. SPIEGEL: But not every banker or manager has the benefit of such historic insight. Ferguson: Precisely. Companies are filled with mathematicians who sometimes calculate ‘Value at risk’ on the basis of as little as three years of data. If the models don’t even follow the timeframe of a normal business cycle or take account of all the players, but merely focus on the share price at the end of the quarter, it’s hardly surprising when people decide there is no risk. The lessons of history were ignored at every level. SPIEGEL: So do you think companies should employ more historians and fewer mathematicians? Ferguson: It wouldn’t hurt. Financial history should at least be a significant part of every business studies course. This kind of knowledge is too important to leave to specialists like me. Unfortunately most of the people who read about financial history are retired bankers. It would have been better if they had read these books earlier. SPIEGEL: Professor Ferguson, we thank you for this interview. Interview conducted by Alexander Jung and Thomas Schulz. URL: http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/niall-ferguson-on-the-ascent-of-money-we-need-newbanks-a-649036.html (http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/niall-ferguson-on-the-ascent-of-money-we-need-newbanks-a-649036.html) Related SPIEGEL ONLINE links: Niall Ferguson on Obama and the Global Crisis: ‘A World War without War’ (11/11/2008) http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/niall-ferguson-on-obama-and-the-global-crisis-a-worldwar-without-war-a589735.html (http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/niall-ferguson-on-obama-and-the-global-crisis-a-worldwar-without-war-a-589735.html) SPIEGEL 360: Our Full Coverage of the Global Economic Downturn http://www.spiegel.de/international/topic/economic_and_financial_crisis/ (http://www.spiegel.de/international/topic/economic_and_financial_crisis/) © SPIEGEL ONLINE 2009 All Rights Reserved Reproduction only allowed with the permission of SPIEGELnet GmbH 26/8/2015 Druckversion – Niall Ferguson on the Ascent of Money: ‘We Need New Banks’ – SPIEGEL ONLINE – Intern bumi2009fans

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August 26, 2015August 26, 2015

10 Minutes

diam2SUKa : (reb0und1nG) china vs amrik (030815) Washington, Aug 3, 2015 (AFP) US consumer spending edged higher in June, capping a rebound in the second quarter from weak growth in the first months of the year, the Commerce Department reported Monday. Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of US economic activity, rose 0.2 percent in June after a 0.7 percent gain in May and a 0.3 percent increase in April, the department said. For the April-June quarter, spending increased at an annual rate of 2.9 percent, up from a 1.8 percent pace in the first quarter. The improvement was led by a 4.8 percent jump in goods purchases. Growth in spending on services, the sector that generates the most US jobs, was unchanged at 2.1 percent for the second consecutive quarter. Personal income rose 0.4 percent for the third month in a row in June. Real disposable income picked up slightly, to 0.5 percent growth following two months of 0.4 percent. Inflation remained tepid. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.3 percent year-over-year in June, accelerating slightly from May. Excluding food and energy, which can be volatile, so-called “core” PCE prices rose 1.3 percent for the sixth consecutive month, still well below the Fed’s 2.0 percent target for price stability. “Spending had a good Q2, even with some slowing in June,” said Jim O’Sullivan, chief US economist at High Frequency Economics. “The trend in core PCE prices remains tame — with no clear acceleration or deceleration.” guardian: Recent events in Shanghai’s stock markets have been all too reminiscent of the tales that have entered American folk memory from the days of the Wall Street crash in 1929: of stock-tipping shoeshine boys, exhausted traders, and ticker-tape machines spooling late into the night. In China, the Shanghai Composite Index lost more than 8% of its value last Monday, and shares have suffered their worst month for six years, falling by 29% since they peaked in June. America’s great crash, and the policy failures that compounded its effects, helped to trigger the great depression. Partly because of the lessons learned then and since, few analysts believe China is heading for an economic downturn on that scale. But there are growing concerns about what the stock price rollercoaster reveals about the health of the world’s second largest economy. Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, played it cool when asked about the Chinese market gyrations in a press conference on Wednesday. She pointed out that the market was still up an extraordinary 80% over the past year, and added she was not surprised the government in Beijing was intervening to prevent the “disorderly functioning” of markets. “That is the duty of central authorities,” she said. “The fact that they want to maintain a level of liquidity that is commensurate with an orderly process is quite good.” In other words, while some have condemned Beijing’s efforts to arrest the share slide as clunky and authoritarian, Lagarde saw it as little different to the scramble by western governments during the 2008 crisis to prevent their financial systems from seizing up. She was relaxed, too, about the potential impact of the share price slide on China’s real economy – the shops, factories and farms that create jobs and generate growth. “We believe that the Chinese economy is resilient and strong enough to withstand that kind of significant variation in the markets,” she said. Yet many analysts believe that as well as the bursting of a financial bubble, the downturn in the stock market reflects a wider economic slowdown. Robert Shapiro, a former economic adviser to Bill Clinton, who now works at US consultancy Sonecon, says: “The Chinese leadership have had a fundamental policy of driving growth sufficiently great to generate employment for about 10 million people a year. The main way they’ve done this is through public investment, or semi-public investment. A lot of these projects are now going bust, because there’s nobody to purchase the apartments, and there are no businesses to rent the offices.” He says the market chaos is partly a direct result of this phenomenon, as shares in construction and property firms are hit. The investment slowdown is a part of a deliberate and carefully signalled policy by China’s president, Xi Jinping, to shift growth away from the export-dominated model that brought more than a decade of double-digit growth rates, as China exploited cheap labour to become the undisputed workshop of the world. Instead, Beijing hopes to achieve the next stage of economic development through more sustainable, domestic-led growth, encouraging urbanisation, and increasing the role of markets. Opening up its stock markets to overseas investors – albeit via intermediaries in Hong Kong – was one step in that process. Extraordinary strides have been made in tackling urban poverty, and tax cuts have helped to cut the cost of imported goods, but the continued weakness of retail sales has undermined hopes that an army of new consumers would power the economy forward. And Shapiro argues that China will also have to face up to the legacy of the lending boom that has been key to keeping the economy afloat. “There are huge volumes of bad debts,” he says. “I think that the distortions in the Chinese economy have accumulated, and there is a growing probability of a hard landing.” Officially, Chinese GDP is still expanding at a healthy rate, in line with the government’s target of 7% a year – which would already be the slowest pace since 1990. But there are questions about the reliability of official figures. China-watchers at City consultancy Fathom compile their own “China momentum index”, based on a number of metrics, including electricity usage and industrial production, and they argue that growth has slowed sharply, to perhaps 3%. Certainly, interest rates have been cut repeatedly in a bid to put a floor under the markets, but also to underpin growth. “Although policymakers are reluctant to admit that China has slowed dramatically, the recent onslaught of measures aimed at stimulating the economy surely hints at their discomfort,” says Fathom’s Laura Eaton. “While these measures may temporarily alleviate the downward pressure, they do very little to resolve China’s longstanding problems of excess capacity, nonperforming loans and perennially weak household consumption.” Recent sharp declines in global commodity prices, including oil, copper and iron ore, are regarded by many market-watchers as resulting from weak Chinese demand, as its apparently insatiable appetite for the world’s natural resources wanes. A downturn in global trade volumes, too, while it has many disparate causes, can probably also be laid partly at China’s door. The country’s slowdown is unfolding at a fragile moment for the global economy, with the eurozone crisis far from resolved and the Federal Reserve preparing to increase interest rates for the first time since the global financial crisis. Professor Danny Quah, an expert on China at the London School of Economics, says: “The US tightening monetary policy amid fragility in the world economy more generally will be challenging for China. Domestic circumstances are tough as well: significant local government debt and already relatively high real wages with thin profit margins remain worries for the economy overall within China.” But he insists that with $4 trillion (£2.6tn) worth of foreign currency reserves and interest rates still above 4% – instead of at rock bottom, as in the US, UK, eurozone and Japan – Beijing is far from impotent in the face of crisis. “I suspect China’s policymakers have plenty of firepower still to help support economic growth in the short term – for the next five years certainly 7% a year would be manageable,” he says. But to the extent that Chinese policymakers are forced to dip into their foreign currency war chest to support growth – and particularly if a less export-oriented growth strategy means that it stops racking up the vast trade surpluses that have helped it to accumulate these huge reserves – the ripples will be felt in markets around the world. Simon Derrick, head of market strategy at investment firm BNY Mellon, says there are signs that is already happening. He says reserves have already been trimmed by about 7.5%, from just under $4tn at the end of June 2014, to $3.69tn by the end of June this year. Along with other emerging economies that piled up reserves to avoid a repeat of the late 1990s Asian financial crisis, China’s massive buying power in debt markets was one of the pressures keeping interest rates low across the developed world in the runup to 2008. Derrick believes this shift away from accumulating new reserves could have contributed to the drift upwards in US bond yields, and the downward pressure on a slew of currencies in recent months, including the euro, and the Canadian and Australian dollars. “Suddenly, you don’t have the same support that you’ve had for the past 15 years, which is why you’ve seen so much volatility,” he says. And as the Fed prepares the ground for a rate rise, Derrick argues that the absence of Chinese buying power in financial markets could mean the impact of that decision is amplified, with borrowing costs rising steeply in the US and emerging markets. “If there is to be a move higher in interest rates across the board, maybe it will be sharper than perhaps you might have expected maybe five years ago.”

Other countries have ample low-cost labour ready to move into manufacturing as Chinese real wages rise, so it may be through higher borrowing costs, rather than a dearth of cheap toys or Tshirts, where the west will feel the impact of China’s changing economy most keenly. In Shanghai, meanwhile, the luckless citizens who chose to invest their hard-earned cash in shares are learning the hard lesson – often forgotten even by the world’s most seasoned investors – that markets can go down as well as up.

Global powerhouse with a poverty challenge ENGINE OF GROWTH … China is the world’s second-biggest economy behind the US, but in terms of who powers growth in the global economy, China is way out ahead. The country has contributed more than a third of global economic growth since 2008-09, so even a moderate slowdown has the potential to send shockwaves around the world. … BUT STILL DEVELOPING Despite its rapid growth, and predictions that it could even overtake the United States over the coming year, China remains, in the assessment of the World Bank, a developing country. Per-capita income is still a fraction of that in advanced countries. With the second largest number of poor in the world after India, poverty reduction remains a fundamental challenge for China, the World Bank adds. COMMODITIES Fast-industrialising China has a huge and rising influence on commodity markets. It accounts for roughly half the global demand for nickel, aluminium and copper. So when China slows, commodity prices are hit, mining company shares tumble and the pain is felt in the biggest commodity exporters, such as Australia. China makes up almost a third of Australia’s exports. ENERGY With its population of around 1.3 billion, China is also the world’s largest consumer of energy, and recent trade figures (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/13/china-crudeimports-idUSL3N0ZN2MJ20150713) suggest it is overtaking the US as the biggest importer of crude oil. The majority of its electricity comes from coal but it is also the biggest producer of wind power: and its capacity to generate hydroelectric power dwarfs other countries thanks to plants like the Three Gorges Dam. STEEL OUTPUT China is the world’s biggest steel producer, making more than 822m tonnes last year, which was half of global output, according to the World Steel Association (https://www.worldsteel.org/media-centre/press-releases/2015/World-Steel-in-Figures-2015-is-available-online.html). China is also far and away the biggest consumer, taking about 46% of finished steel products in 2014, the association says. LUXURY MARKET An expanding middle class has boosted demand for consumer goods in China and by Chinese tourists on overseas shopping sprees in the US and Europe. It is already the world’s largest car market and accounts for about a third of global smartphone sales. There has also been a surge in demand for luxury goods, such as watches and handbags, although the economic slowdown and a crackdown on officials receiving gifts has dampened this market. cnbc: U.S. equities opened slightly lower on Thursday as investors digested a slew of corporate earnings, U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged. The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 100 points in the open. “I think earnings have been very enlightening this quarter, and the market is starting to get the message that things aren’t as good as previously thought,” said Maris Ogg, president at Tower Bridge Advisors. Several companies reported quarterly results before the bell, including Procter & Gamble, Cigna and AB InBev. Procter & Gamble beat Wall Street expectations on the top line, posting profits of $1 per share, 5 cents above estimates. However, revenue was slightly below estimates, and the company said organic sales in the current fiscal year will be down slightly to up single digits. Read MoreChina stock crash will hit economy: Credit Suisse (http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/29/china-stock-crash-will-hit-economy-credit-suisse.html) Insurance company Cigna also posted mixed quarterly results, posting earning per share of $2.55, above the estimated $2.31, but revenue came in below forecasts. AB InBev saw its latest profit fall short of analyst estimates, with sales in key markets weaker. The company said poor weather and weak economic conditions weighed on its results. Companies reporting after the bell include Amgen, LinkedIn and Expedia. In economic news, the Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product expanded at an annual rate of 2.3 percent, slightly below economists’ estimates. “I was mostly surprised by the Q1 revision in GDP,” said Randy Frederick, managing director of trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab. The department revised its first-quarter GDP reading to a 0.6 percent increase from a 0.2 percent contraction. ” Read MoreUS government revises earlier GDPs to fix anomalies (http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/30/us-government-revises-earlier-gdps-to-fix-anomalies-in-reporting.html) “This means there are no negative quarters, and that’s good,” Frederick added. U.S. weekly jobless claims increased by 12,000 week-over-week, but came in below expectations at 267,000, the Labor Department said. “The thing with GDP is that it’s old news. We’re already well into Q3 and this is a far back looking number,” said Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group. Boockvar added that Wall Street was “more focused on digesting what the Fed said yesterday.” On Wednesday, the central bank kept rates unchanged and gave no hint of liftoff coming in the next meeting. The decision on the rates was unanimous. Policymakers said the economy is expanding moderately and made no mention of recent volatility around Greece or China. “While the official estimates say December is now more likely [for a rate hike], I believe most investors think September is the more likely bet,” Frederick said. In fact, Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott, noted that the one of the Fed’s favorite indicators on inflation, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, rose 1.8 percent. Symbol

Name

Price

Change

%Change

DJIA (http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/.DJI)

Dow Jones Industrial Average

17653.82

-97.57

-0.55%

S&P 500 (http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX)

S&P 500 Index

2100.34

-8.23

-0.39%

NASDAQ (http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/.IXIC)

Nasdaq Composite Index

5090.88

-20.85

-0.41%

TheDow JonesIndustrial Average (http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/.DJI)traded down 84 points, or 0.47 percent, at 17,670 with Procter & Gamble as the greatest laggard and Intel leading three advancers. TheS&P 500 (http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX) traded 10 points lower, or 0.52 percent at 2,097, with health care leading nine sectors lower and materials the only advancer. The Nasdaq (http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/.IXIC) traded 25 points lower, or 0.5 percent at 5,086. Decliners were about two steps ahead of advancers with an exchange volume of 81 million and a composite volume of 286 million. —CNBC’s Peter Schacknow contributed to this report. bloomberg: American companies had a rough start to 2015 as they watched profits from overseas subsidiaries slide. Exactly how much blame should we assign to the currency markets? Two economists at the Federal Reserve have an idea. U.S. corporate profits fell about 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter last year before plummeting 5.2 percent in the first quarter this year, partly driven by a plunge in the amount American companies’ foreign affiliates earned. Of the decline in overseas subsidiary profits caused by the appreciating currency and cheaper oil imports, about a third probably came specifically from the greenback, Carol Bertaut (http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/carol-bertaut.htm) and Nitish Sinha (http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/nitish-rsinha.htm) wrote in a post (http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/notes/ifdp-notes/2015/how-much-has-dollar-appreciation-affected-us-corporate-profits-20150717.html) this month. Fed policy makers have voiced concern about the strong dollar’s drag on exports, both in Federal Open Market Committee minutes (http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20150617.pdf) and in speeches (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-20/two-fed-officials-say-stronger-dollara-factor-for-u-s-outlook) (the FOMC will release a new policy statement at 2 p.m. on Wednesday). It’s a major point of concern for monetary policy-watchers as Fed officials debate when to go ahead with the first interest rate increase since 2006. The dollar has appreciated by about 9.6 percent against the euro and 3.4 percent against the yen this year. A stronger currency hurts company earnings because U.S. exports become less competitive with goods produced abroad, and if corporations haven’t hedged overseas profits, they translate into fewer dollars.

The Fed economists built a model to estimate how two factors majorly weighing on exports right now — the strong dollar and cheap imported oil — are contributing to the decline in income earned by foreign affiliates. They found that the decrease in gas prices and an appreciation in the dollar could have cut into direct investment income receipts by 14.5 percent between the end of September 2014 and the end of March, with 5.6 percent tied to the dollar’s rise. A drop in oil prices weighs on energy and utility companies. By examining financial markets, economists also found that stock market investors have been factoring the strong dollar into their expectations for corporate earnings and portfolio allocation, causing the shares of companies with high overseas sales to under-perform by more as the dollar began to appreciate last summer. Firms with high foreign sales have also experienced comparatively large downward revisions to year-end earning expectations in eight out 12 months over the past year, they found, though that effect has faded as the dollar has recently stabilized. “An encouraging sign from financial markets is that much the effect of the dollar’s appreciation since last summer may have already shown through to U.S. corporate profits, given the recent stability in stock prices of internationally exposed firms and in the analysts’ expectations,” the economists wrote. Whether that proves prescient could be crucial to Fed policy makers as they try to assess where the economy is headed going into their big policy move. marketwatch, Stephen Roach: NEW HAVEN, Conn. (Project Syndicate) — Stock market manipulation has become standard operating procedure in policy circles around the world. All eyes are now on China’s attempts to cope with the collapse of a major equity bubble. But the efforts of Chinese authorities are hardly unique. The leading economies of the West are doing pretty much the same thing — just dressing up their manipulation in different clothes. Central banks make the unsubstantiated claim that things would have been much worse had they not pursued QE. But, with now-frothy manipulated asset markets posing new risks of financial instability, the jury is out on that point as well. Take quantitative easing, first used in Japan in the early 2000s, then in the United States after 2008, then in Japan again beginning in 2013, and now in Europe. In all of these cases, QE essentially has been an aggressive effort to manipulate asset prices. It works primarily through direct central-bank purchases of long-dated sovereign securities, thereby reducing long-term interest rates, which, in turn, makes equities more attractive. Whether the QE strain of market manipulation has accomplished its objective — to provide stimulus to crisis-torn, asset-dependent economies — is debatable: Current recoveries in the developed world, after all, have been unusually anemic. But that has not stopped the authorities from trying. In their defense, central banks make the unsubstantiated claim that things would have been much worse had they not pursued QE. But, with now-frothy manipulated asset markets posing new risks of financial instability, the jury is out on that point as well. What’s Behind China’s Market Plunge?(4:16) China’s stock market dropped sharply on Monday, setting off a case of global jitters. Moneybeat’s Paul Vigna discusses the global implications. China’s efforts at market manipulation are no less blatant. In response to a 31% plunge in the CSI 300 (a composite index of shares on the Shanghai 000010, -8.71% and Shenzhen 399100, -7.11% exchanges) from its June 12 peak, following a 145% surge in the preceding 12 months, Chinese regulators have moved aggressively to contain the damage. Also read: China stocks suffer sharpest daily fall since 2007 Official actions run the gamut, including a $480 billion government-supported equity-market backstop under the auspices of the China Securities Finance Corp., a $19 billion pool from major domestic brokerages, and an open-ended promise by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to use its balance sheet to shore up equity prices. Moreover, trading was suspended for about 50% of listed securities (more than 1,400 of 2,800 stocks). Also read: China has only itself to blame, says Satyajit Das Unlike the West’s QE-enabled market manipulation, which works circuitously through central-bank liquidity injections, the Chinese version is targeted more directly at the market in distress — in this case, equities. Significantly, QE is very much a reactive approach — aimed at sparking revival in distressed markets and economies after they have collapsed. The more proactive Chinese approach is the policy equivalent of attempting to catch a falling knife — arresting a market in free-fall. There are several other noteworthy distinctions between China’s market manipulation and that seen in the West. First, Chinese authorities appear less focused on systemic risks to the real economy. That makes sense, given that wealth effects are significantly smaller in China, where private consumption accounts for just 36% of gross domestic product — only about half the share in more wealth-dependent economies like the U.S. Moreover, much of the sharp appreciation in Chinese equity values was very short-lived. Nearly 90% of the 12-month surge in the CSI 300 was concentrated in the seven months following the start of cross-border investment flows via the so-called Shanghai-Hong Kong Connect in November 2014. As a result, speculators had little time to let the capital gains sink in and to have a lasting impact on lifestyle expectations. Second, in the West, post-crisis reforms typically have been tactical, aimed at repairing flaws in established markets, rather than promoting new markets. In China, by contrast, post-bubble reforms have a more strategic focus, given that the equity-market distress has important implications for the government’s capital-market reforms, which are viewed as crucial to its strategy of structural rebalancing. Long saddled with a bank-centric system of credit intermediation, the development of secure and stable equity and bond markets is a high priority in China’s effort to promote a more diversified business-funding platform. The collapse of the equity bubble calls that effort into serious question. Finally, by emphasizing a regulatory fix, and thereby keeping its benchmark policy rate well above the dreaded zero bound, the PBOC is actually better positioned than other central banks to maintain control over monetary policy and not become ensnared in the open-ended provision of liquidity that is so addictive for frothy markets. And, unlike in the West, China’s targeted equity-specific actions minimize the risk of financial contagion caused by liquidity spillovers into other asset markets. With a large portion of China’s domestic equity market still closed, it is hard to know when the correction’s animal spirits have been exhausted. While the government has assembled considerable firepower to limit the unwinding of a spectacular bubble, the overhang of highly leveraged speculative demand is disconcerting. Indeed, in the 12 months ending in June, margin financing of stock purchases nearly tripled as a share of tradable domestic-equity-market capitalization. While Chinese equities initially bounced 14% off their July 8 low, the 8.5% plunge on July 27 suggests that that may have been a temporary respite. The likelihood of forced deleveraging of margin calls underscores the potential for a further slide once full trading resumes. Also read: What China watchers are saying about Shanghai’s ugly selloff More broadly, just as in Japan, the U.S., and Europe, there can be no mistaking what prompted China’s manipulation: the perils of outsize asset bubbles. Time and again, regulators and policy makers — to say nothing of political leaders — have been asleep at the switch in condoning market excesses. In a globalized world where labor income is under constant pressure, the siren song of asset markets as a growth elixir is far too tempting for the body politic to resist. Speculative bubbles are the visible manifestation of that temptation. As the bubbles burst — and they always do — false prosperity is exposed and the defensive tactics of market manipulation become both urgent and seemingly logical. Therein lies the great irony of manipulation: The more we depend on markets, the less we trust them. Needless to say, that is a far cry from the “invisible hand” on which the efficacy of markets rests. We claim, as Adam Smith did, that impersonal markets ensure the most efficient allocation of scarce capital; but what we really want are markets that operate only on our terms. This article has been published with the permission of Project Syndicate — Market Manipulation Goes Global. Jakarta, CNN Indonesia — Jatuhnya Indeks saham di China yang dikhawatirkan berimbas ke pasar modal Indonesia tidak dirasakan oleh Chief Economist PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI) Anggito Abimanyu. Mantan Kepala Badan Kebijakan Fiskal Kementerian Keuangan (Kemenkeu) itu menilai, pemerintah negara tirai bambu memiliki cadangan devisa besar yang bisa digunakan untuk mengintervensi pasar modal. “Tampaknya ekonomi China masih dikelola dengan cukup baik. Saya tidak khawatir karena pasar modal dan cadangan devisa China sangat besar dan mampu menstabilkan pasar bursanya,” kata Anggito kepada CNN Indonesia, Kamis (9/7). Pelemahan ekonomi yang dialami China disebut Anggito telah terjadi dalam beberapa tahun terakhir, dari posisi 7,7 persen pada 2013 menjadi 7,4 persen tahun lalu. Sehingga ia menilai tidak tepat jika baru dikhawatirkan oleh pelaku pasar saat ini. Ia justru menilai Indonesia perlu mewaspadai sentimen lain di luar melambatnya ekonomi China. Hal itu adalah ketidakpastian The Fed menaikkan suku bunga dan perlambatan konsumsi domestik. Dari sisi fiskal pemerintah, Indonesia disebutnya juga memiliki instrumen yang dinilai mampu menangkal perlambatan ekonomi. Antara lain dengan melakukan penyerapan anggaran dan belanja secara optimal di bidang infrastruktur. Kendati demikian, ia memprediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi di kuartal II masih di bawah 5 persen. “Seharusnya bisa, meskipun (belanja pemerintah) tidak setinggi ekspektasi,” ujarnya. bumi2009fans

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August 3, 2015August 3, 2015

17 Minutes

ya sudah lah: investor menatap the fed’s actions … 141110_070515

ULASAN SEDERHANA gw SOAL STRONG DOLLAR POLICY(negara korbannya) (http://jlmaensaham2012.blogspot.com/2015/03/arti-strong-dollarbwat-rakyat-amrik.html) Dollar index per 06 Mei 2015 @94 (http://wp.me/pvbrr-IG) Bisnis.com, JAKARTA— Indeks dolar Amerika Serikat pagi ini, Rabu (25/3/2015) masih tetap bertengger di level 97, meski sudah dua hari terakhir mampu menguat tipis. Indeks dolar AS seperti dikutip dari Bloomberg, pada perdagangan hari ini dibuka naik 0,09% ke 97,277. Pada Selasa (24/3/2015), indeks naik 0,16% ke 97,193. Pada pk. 06:53 WIB, indeks ke 97,276. Posisi indeks dolar AS Pk.06:53 WIB(25 Maret)

97,276(+0,09%)

Buka(25 Maret)

97,277(+0,09%)

24 Maret

97,193(+0,16%)

Sumber: US Dollar Index Spot Rate, 2015 (Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve opened the door to an interest-rate increase as soon as June, while also indicating it will go slow once it gets started. The new signals were contained in a policy statement that ended an era by dropping an assurance that the Fed will be “patient” in raising rates, and in a fresh set of estimates that lowered the median for the federal funds rate the end of 2015 to 0.625 percent compared with 1.125 percent in December. “Just because we removed the word patient from the statement doesn’t mean we are going to be impatient,” Chair Janet Yellen said in a press conference Wednesday in Washington. The Federal Open Market Committee said it will be appropriate to tighten “when it has seen further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.” “An increase in the target range for the federal funds rate remains unlikely at the April” meeting, it said in its statement. Yellen is preparing for an exit from the most aggressive easing in the Fed’s 100-year history as the job market overcomes the damage wrought by the deepest recession since the 1930s. At the same time, inflation and wage growth that remain too low are giving her reasons for caution. Stocks rose, erasing earlier losses, after the FOMC announcement. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 0.9 percent at 2,091.92B as of 2:31 p.m. in New York. Ten-year Treasury notes yielded 1.96 percent, down nine basis points.

Guidance Change While Fed officials lowered their estimate for the federal funds rate at the end of 2015, they said in their statement that “this change in the forward guidance does not indicate that the Committee has decided on the timing of the initial increase in the target range.” Dropping the pledge to be “patient” marks a shift away from the explicit guidance on the future path of policy that the Fed has used since late 2008 to keep longer-term borrowing costs low. The Fed will now set policy at each meeting based on the latest economic data, making its actions less predictable. The Fed repeated that it sees “strong job gains” and that labor-market conditions have “improved further.” Still, the committee lowered its assessment of the economy, saying growth has “moderated somewhat.” In January, it said the economy was “expanding at a solid pace.” Export growth has weakened and the housing recovery remains slow, according to this month’s statement.

Two Meetings Yellen has said the promise to be “patient” means the FOMC would probably wait at least two meetings before raising rates. The next FOMC meetings are scheduled for April and June. The Fed is preparing to tighten even as stagnant growth elsewhere prompts central banks in Europe, China and Japan to ease policy. That has put upward pressure on the dollar, which has jumped more than 4 percent since Fed policy makers last met on Jan. 28, posing a potential headwind to growth as American exports become more expensive. Fed officials confront conflicting signals from their dual mandates for full employment and price stability as they weigh when to tighten policy for the first time since June 2006.

Job Gains Surging job gains pushed unemployment down to 5.5 percent in February, the lowest level in almost seven years, suggesting the economy is strong enough to withstand higher borrowing costs. Payroll gains have averaged more than 200,000 workers for 12 straight months, the longest streak of such increases since March 1995. “No matter how you cut the cake, you still have an economy running above trend,” said Bricklin Dwyer, an economist at BNP Paribas SA in New York. Absent a threat of deflation, “the economy can handle higher rates.” Among companies boosting payrolls is Omaha, Nebraska-based Union Pacific Corp. The largest publicly traded railroad in North America plans to hire about 5,700 employees this year amid an improving economy, Chief Financial Officer Rob Knight said this month in an investor conference. “That’s a big number,” Knight said. “A lot of those are high-paying union jobs, so these are very good jobs in our industry.” The economy grew at a 2.2 percent annualized rate in the three months ended December after a 5 percent jump in the third quarter that was the biggest in 11 years.

Housing, Production Even so, recent data on housing, industrial production and consumer spending have been weaker than forecast, prompting some economists to mark down their estimates for growth this quarter. Inflation and wage growth also haven’t been as strong as many Fed officials would like, suggesting that there’s more slack left in the economy than low unemployment alone suggest. Prices as measured by the Fed’s preferred gauge rose just 0.2 percent in January from a year earlier, and inflation has languished below the central bank’s 2 percent goal for 33 straight months. Yellen last month said it would be appropriate to raise rates if the labor market continues to improve and officials are “reasonably confident” that inflation will move back up toward their goal. Low inflation expectations are depressing 10-year Treasury yields, which hit a 20-month low of 1.64 percent in January. The yield was at 2.05 percent late yesterday. One reason for declining inflation: the plunge in oil prices. That gives Fed officials reason to believe consumer prices will recover as the impact of cheaper oil dissipates. Bond investors aren’t buying that argument. Traders are betting prices will rise at a 1.37 percent annual rate over the next five years, down from a 1.67 percent estimate on March 3, according to break-even rates on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities. Wages present more of a puzzle. Average hourly earnings rose 2 percent in February from a year earlier, matching the average since the end of the recession in June 2009. Eighty nine-percent of 49 economists surveyed by Bloomberg this month forecast that the Fed would drop “patient” from its statement. Sixty-nine percent predicted the phrase would be replaced by some other form of guidance. In December, the FOMC dropped a clause from its statement that it would hold rates low for a “considerable time” and instead said it would be “patient” in weighing an increase. CNN: Repeat after me: The Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates later this year. There. That wasn’t so hard, was it? But many investors are whining about how Fed chair Janet Yellen is about to finally turn out the lights on this great bull market we’ve been enjoying for the past six years. Get over it. Related: The bull market turns 6. Now what? Strong dollar helps Main Street. Yes, higher rates could mean an even stronger dollar. And that’s one thing that’s worrying Wall Street lately because it could hurt corporate profits. But for average consumers, the mighty greenback is a good thing. It makes it cheaper to travel and also lowers the price of imported goods. “If you look at the U.S. economy, there are very few signs of weakness. Nothing out there suggests that the strong dollar is actually hurting the economy,” said Sam Wardwell, investment strategist at Pioneer Investments. Related: The dollar is crushing other currencies Instead of panicking about how higher rates are going to kill the bull, shouldn’t Wall Street focus instead on the reason why the Fed is probably going to be able to FINALLY raise interest rates from the near-zero levels they’ve been stuck at since December 2008? Healthy economy: All this fuss is because we have a healthier economy, especially the labor market. A higher number of jobs were added last month than expected while the unemployment rate dipped to its lowest level since before the financial crisis. That sparked a huge sell-off on Friday. That is myopic. A stronger job market should lead to higher levels of consumer spending … which is still the driving force of the U.S. economy. This is why Wardwell thinks consumer discretionary stocks — such as retailers, autos and housing suppliers — should do well over the next year. Sure, wages continue to lag. They rose just 2% over the past 12 months. But there are signs that salaries could soon climb. Related: 3% raises could be back this year Wages uptick soon: Another government jobs report, known as the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey or JOLTS for short, just showed that there were slightly more job openings in January 2015 than people hired. And more people voluntarily quit their jobs as well. In other words, people looking for work are finding it, and they’re starting to have more negotiating power to work where they want and for higher salaries. “Companies cannot fill their open positions and will have to pay more to attract workers,” wrote analysts at research firm Pavilion. Higher wages should make the Fed feel more confident that rate hikes won’t derail the economic recovery. And if people start to make more money, that should also push up the prices of things to a more normal level of inflation. Remember that the Fed is supposed to try and promote the highest level of employment it can while also keeping prices stable. Mild inflation is far more preferable than deflation. Just ask anyone in Europe or Japan. Related: What happened during prior Fed rate hikes? It’s easier to get a job It’s easier to get a job (Don’t fear) the rate hike reaper. The market also seems to be forgetting two other important things about the coming rate hikes. For one, it seems highly unlikely that Yellen is going to repeat some of the mistakes made by some of her predecessors and raise rates too sharply. Does it really matter if the first increase comes in June or September? No. The first move will probably be small. Probably a quarter of a point. A half a point at most. Interest rates could be around 1% to 1.25% by the end of 2015. That’s not something any sane person should consider to be cripplingly high. And given how transparent the Fed has become under Yellen and her former boss Ben Bernanke, is it even possible for the Fed to surprise the market anymore? Every rate increase will probably be painfully telegraphed. Related: Janet Yellen says too many Americans are still struggling Finally, there are probably going to be millions of Americans doing their version of the old Mypos Dance of Joy from “Perfect Strangers” once the Fed finally starts to raise rates. That’s because responsible savers have been penalized for putting money in the bank. The average rate on a savings account is a measly 0.44% according to Bankrate. That can only improve once the Fed raises its federal funds rate. So Wall Street may have to get used to higher rates. Let’s face it. There was never going to be a perfect time for the Fed to start tightening. The market has become a liquidity junkie. It’s addicted to the Fed’s easy money policies. It’s time for them to end. “One of the main criticisms of the Fed is that its programs did not help Main Street,” Wardwell said. “We might get the other side of the pendulum this year. This could be a good year for Main Street even though we might finally get a market correction.”

us news & report: Better-than-expected employment figures issued in recent days by the Labor Department have preceded some slippery days for the stock market, as investors are flinching at the prospect of a thriving American economy and what it could lead to in the near future. The market shed more than 332 points (http://www.usnews.com/news/slideshows/5-things-to-know-about-the-economy-this-week-3-12-2015) Tuesday following the release of largely positive job-opening figures (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm) for the month of January. The dive effectively erased all gains the market had made so far in 2015 as the Nasdaq, Dow Jones industrial average and Standard & Poor’s 500 index all dipped by more than 1.5 percent. The idea that January’s 5 million job openings – making it the best month for position availability in 14 years – actually hurt the stock market is seemingly counterintuitive. A high number of job openings suggests people have flexibility in the labor market, a concept further supported by the nearly 3 million “quits” – or people who left their job – in the month of January. A high number of quits in a given month generally means people in the workforce are confident about their prospects of landing another job. So aren’t these numbers a good thing for the domestic economy? [READ: 5 Things to Know About the Economy This Week (http://www.usnews.com/news/slideshows/5-things-to-know-about-the-economy-this-week-3-12-2015)] The short answer: Yes, but that’s exactly what’s spooking investors, because an improving economy also portends the first Federal Reserve interest rate hike since 2006. “In prior Fed tightening cycles, what you see is that in and around Fed rate hikes, the first one at least you get market volatility and usually a down stock market,” says John Canally, a vice president and economist at LPL Financial. “The uncertainties around the Fed are when, how much and how fast. And that is certainly reason for markets to hiccup, but they’re probably being premature.” The Fed has held interest rates to near-zero levels since the Great Recession, effectively making loans less daunting prospects. But many economists speculate that an interest rate hike is inevitable in the near future, as the job market is doing well, the dollar is strong and home sale values have ticked up. “The Fed draws down interest rates to spark growth in the economy,” says Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Sterne Agee. “An increase in rates raises the cost of capital. What we would expect to see [once rates increase] is that businesses pull back in terms of taking on risky capital to grow and start new businesses.” [ALSO: Tech Training Could Help Close U.S. Skills Gap (http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/03/11/tech-training-could-help-close-us-skills-gap)] An interest rate hike would also take a toll on people hoping to finance a home purchase, Piegza says, because it would lead to more expensive mortgage scenarios. Though rental housing prices continue to climb, more expensive loans make purchasing a home less attractive, dragging down sales and new home construction. “So if you begin to increase interest rates, what are you going to do to those potential homebuyers who are sitting on the fence? You’re probably going to squeeze a lot of them out of the market,” Piegza says. But it’s not necessarily an option to leave the training wheels of extremely low interest rates on indefinitely. Maximizing employment, stabilizing prices and moderating long-term interest rates are among the Fed’s key responsibilities. It does these things largely through manipulating interest rates and overseeing the amount of currency in circulation. Interest rates left low indefinitely can create the threat of inflation and essentially tie one of the Fed’s arms behind its back, inhibiting it from reducing rates to stimulate economic activity. [ALSO: Tech Training Could Help Close U.S. Skills Gap (http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/03/11/tech-training-could-help-close-us-skills-gap)] “God forbid something happens in the world and the Fed needs some policy tools to try to aggressively stimulate economic growth here or abroad,” says Phil Orlando, chief equity strategist at Federated Investors. “With the funds rate at zero, they’ve got no bullets to employ. So what they want to do is reload the gun, if you will, and get back to some neutral level of the funds rate over the next couple years.” Canally says investors can’t stand “uncertainty,” but stock market volatility is likely to continue until quarterly earnings reports come out in April. During the current in-between period when companies aren’t filing earnings reports with the Securities and Exchange Commission, he says, “big macro factors” like the employment reports create fluctuations in the stock market. “You have internal arguments until [the market] can take direction from what actually matters for stocks, which is earnings. And we’re not going to get that for another month,” Canally says. “And each day that goes by, you’re going to get a little bit more volatility as the end of the business cycle approaches and as the Fed rate hikes approach.” Canally also points out that stocks grew during the 12-month window immediately following eight of the last nine Fed interest rate hikes. Though he notes that growth generally slows when rates go up, it doesn’t disappear entirely. “I don’t see there being a significantly negative economic or financial market impact from this,” Orlando says of a potential rate hike. “But the market is conditioned to believe that once the Fed starts hiking rates, the market and the economy are going to roll over and die.” [SURVEY: Small and Mid-Sized Businesses Optimistic for 2015 (http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/data-mine/2015/03/09/survey-small-and-mid-sized-businesses-optimistic-for-2015)] What’s important to keep in mind is that an interest rate hike is likely still a few months off. Some say the earliest reasonable target date for a rate hike could fall in June, while others speculate the announcement will come closer to the end of this year or even sometime in 2016. Orlando says the announcement likely will coincide with a meeting and press conference. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and the Federal Open Market Committee don’t speak with the press after each one of their meetings, so Orlando speculates that an announcement is likely to come out of their June meeting or the session scheduled for September. Before then, the Federal Open Market Committee will meet on March 17 and 18 to discuss the state of the domestic economy, and could drop the “patient” rhetoric it has used to describe its approach to normalizing interest rates. “When the Fed meets next week for the FOMC meeting on the 17th and 18th, the thinking is they are going to remove the word ‘patient’ from their statement,” Orlando says. “That’s the litmus test. If they remove the word ‘patient,’ that puts a June hike in play.” But Piegza isn’t so sure the interest rate boost will come in June, largely because wage growth has been so flat. And, although she notes that February’s employment and jobs reports exceeded expectations, they were not expected to do well to begin with, because of the extreme winter weather that struck the country. “The expectation for February was so low that we really had nowhere to go but beat that expectation,” Piegza says, noting that the unemployment rate dipped to 5.5 percent in part because the labor force contracted by 178,000 people. “The participation rate continued to decline, so the fallout in the unemployment rate was as much a reflection of discouraged Americans as it was unemployed Americans finding gainful employment. And then of course you have that minimal wage growth.” Yellen has cited stagnant wage growth and stubbornly low inflation as key impediments to a potential interest rate increase. Ideally, a rate hike would coincide with a noticeable uptick in wages so that consumers’ budgets aren’t stretched too thin. “That’s really what they’re looking for, but as millions of Americans remain dropped out of the labor force and businesses continue to rely on flexible, low-cost labor, we haven’t adequately absorbed enough slack in the labor market to translate into wage pressures,” Piegza says, speculating that an increase might not be seen until late this year or sometime in 2016. “I really don’t see the Fed being able to justify a rate increase. “And certainly Yellen doesn’t want to go down in the history books as raising rates and then, six months later, having to cut rates again.” First QE2 buying fails to lift Treasury prices November 13, 2010 Prices of US Treasuries fell on Friday as the first day of heavy purchasing by the Federal Reserve failed to jump-start wider demand for low-yielding government debt. The Fed bought $US7.23 billion in Treasury paper on Friday with maturities of between four and six years under its $US600 billion bond-buying program announced last week to stimulate the economy. Prices hit session lows after the Fed completed its purchases, with both seven-year notes and 10-year notes trading a full point lower in price. “Bears are still in charge,” said Lou Brien, market strategist at DRW Trading in Chicago. “They were waiting for the purchase results and saw no surprises. Then they started selling again.” Suvrat Prakash, US interest-rate strategist at BNP Paribas in New York, said traders had been waiting until the Fed buying details came out to execute trades they had already planned for the day. “A couple of people were holding off on shorting the market until the Fed buyback data came out,” he said. “It’s just a bit of unwinding of long positions. Whenever there’s a bit of bearish momentum and people get flushed out of their positions, you can see it go further when the technicals look weak and a lot of technical analysts are saying that now.” The 10-year note yield is poised for its biggest one-week jump this year, while the 30-year yield could see the largest increase over such a period since June 2009. The Fed’s purchasing plan was meant to push Treasury yields lower but after two months of frenzied speculation on the size and scope of the plan before it was announced the details left investors disappointed and yields began rising instead. “Volatility is really keeping people to the sidelines,” said David Ader, head of government bond strategy at CRT Capital Group in Stamford, Connecticut. “The price action has become so choppy, so erratic. You can’t base it on anything you’re seeing.” Volume was high, but some trading desks were understaffed following Thursday’s Veterans Day holiday. Analysts also struggled to find a rhythm for the day after conflicting reports over whether the European Union would bail out Ireland as it struggles to control spiraling fiscal troubles. “I’m actually kind of surprised the short to intermediate end (of the yield curve) is having the reaction that it is today,” said Mary Ann Hurley, vice president of fixed income trading at D.A. Davidson & Co. in Seattle. “We have the Treasury debt buyback and we still have the problems in Europe simmering,” Hurley said. “With the holiday yesterday and supply out of the way, the economic data today really second tier, I think a lot of people made it a long weekend.” The latest set of European troubles did not provide the flight-to-quality bid that had often materialized during the flare-up of sovereign debt instability earlier this year. Ader said many Treasury investors, whose bets that more Fed buying would push yields lower and prices higher had soured during an aggressive, week-long sell-off, weren’t sure what to do ahead of the Fed’s first round of purchases and so were waiting and watching. “I think probably the best thing to do is to buy with the Fed and sell with the Treasury,” said John Spinello, Treasury bond strategist at Jefferies & Co in New York. Spinello identified a range for the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield of between 2.75 and 2.57 percent. “I think the yield curve will probably flatten; it got way too steep,” he said. “Not necessarily a bull flattener but a bear flattener or maybe a little bit of both. Right now the front end is as weak as it’s been for a long time.” Two-year notes were yielding 0.47 percent after losing 3/32 in price, having ended on Wednesday at 0.42 percent. Ten-year notes were down 17/32 in price and yielding 2.69 percent against 2.63 Wednesday. Seven-year notes were off 21/32 in price and yielding 1.91 percent. Reuters November 13, 2010 A Calmer Market? Not for Long Bonds By PAUL J. LIM AN implicit goal of the Federal Reserve’s plan to buy $600 billion in Treasury debt is to stabilize the market. But this unconventional plan may mean even greater uncertainty for at least one group of investors: those who own long-term government bonds. “There could be near-equity-like volatility” coming for these bonds, warned Joseph H. Davis, chief economist and head of the investment strategy group at the Vanguard Group. While the Fed has made it clear that it aims to keep intermediate interest rates very low by buying Treasuries maturing in the 5-to-10-year range, it has said little of its intentions for 30-year debt. As a result, investors who think that the Fed’s plan — called quantitative easing, or QE2 — could lead to higher inflation have managed to drive up long-term yields by selling 30-year Treasuries. Bond yields move in the opposite direction of prices. Since late August, when the bond market first began to anticipate QE2, yields on 30-year Treasuries have climbed to 4.28 percent from 3.53 percent, leading to significant losses for investors who’ve been betting on long-term bonds. The Vanguard Long-Term Treasury fund, for example, has lost around 8 percent of its value in just the last two and a half months. Of course, investors in long-term Treasuries have grown accustomed to stock-like swings in their holdings. In the first six months of 2009, the average long-term government bond fund lost 23 percent of its value, only to climb around 14 percent in the subsequent four months, slump 8 percent in the next six months, and soar 26 percent between April and August of this year. The bond market’s reaction to QE2 is somewhat reminiscent of its response to the Fed’s announcement of its first round of quantitative easing, in March 2009, during one of the rougher periods of the global credit crisis, said Thomas D. Carney, a portfolio manager for the Weitz Funds in Omaha. In that time, Mr. Carney said, “the Fed accomplished its intended goal of calming the financial markets.” But contrary to what some people believed could happen to Treasuries, he said, volatility grew. Yields jumped after investors grew more confident that economic recovery was near. Indeed, within a year of that announcement, yields on 30-year Treasuries shot up to 4.75 percent from 3.6 percent. That helps explain why the average long-term government bond fund sank nearly 19 percent last year. This time around, fixed-income investors could be at even greater risk of suffering losses, because they don’t enjoy that much of a “yield cushion,” said Mr. Davis at Vanguard. What does he mean by that? Several factors determine how sensitive a bond may be to swings in interest rates. First, there’s duration, a statistical measure expressed in years, that tells how much a bond’s price would fall if interest rates climbed by one percentage point. If a bond’s duration is four years, for example, that implies that the price of the investment could fall 4 percent if interest rates rose by a full percentage point. But if that same bond yielded, say, 5 percent, investors could still avoid losses on a total return basis even if rates rose by a point. Three years ago, a typical total bond market index fund was yielding around 5 percent with an average duration of about four and a half years. Today, that same fund has a similar four-and-ahalf year duration, yet is yielding only around 3.4 percent. That means investors could wind up losing more if rates spike. OF course, investors could be facing wide swings in Treasury prices whether rates go up or down. For example, if the Fed succeeds in bolstering investor confidence and economic activity, long-term investors are likely to continue to sell 30-year Treasuries, leading to even greater losses on long-term bonds. And if the economy heats up to the point where many investors fear the potential for inflation, something else could happen: Yields on 10-year Treasury notes and other intermediate-term securities could also start rising as investors move into more growth-oriented asset classes and as the Fed begins to curtail its bond purchases. If, on the other hand, QE2 doesn’t spur as much economic growth as the Fed hopes, long-term bond investors might stop fixating on inflation and start to worry about another economic downturn — as they did earlier this year when the European debt crisis struck. Back then, interest rates reversed course quickly, sinking as investors sought the perceived safety of long-term Treasuries. Those lower rates meant higher prices. The Fed’s powers are limited, said Carl P. Kaufman, co-manager of the Osterweis Strategic Income fund. “In the long run,” Mr. Kaufman said, “economic results — not the Fed — will determine where long-term rates are going to be headed.” Paul J. Lim is a senior editor at Money magazine. E-mail: [email protected].

Something Big is Coming to Markets By: Robert McHugh | Sunday, March 15, 2015 We are about to see a series of cycle turns occur simultaneously over the next 30 trading days, a period which includes a Fibonacci Cluster turn window with 10 observations. Within this 30 trading day period are a number of very unusual astrological events, which can affect markets. In the past, we have pointed out that major trend turns often come around the spring equinox, which this year arrives within the important Fibonacci Cluster we discuss below, on March 20th, 2015. Within this cluster turn period we also have a rare Total Solar eclipse (also on March 20th, 2015), the first day of the Hebrew calendar, (Nissan 1, evening also on March 20th), and a New Moon on March 20th. March 20th is also a quadruple witching hour on Wall Street, an options and futures expiration date. Also within this Fibonacci cluster turn period, on April 1st, 2015 is a phi mate turn date, and on April 4th we see a Bradley model turn date, which is also Passover, and also has a Full Moon — not just any Full Moon, but a Blood Moon, the third of four in the 2014-2015 tetrad, a very rare event, that has the additional extremely rare occurrence that all four of these Blood Moons fall on the Hebrew Holy days of Passover and the Feast of Tabernacles (see Genesis 1:14). Something big is about to change. In our weekend report to subscribers at www.technicalindicatorindex.com (http://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/), we show that contemporaneous with these events, the stock market has now formed two Megaphone topping patterns that look complete, a Jaws of Death topping pattern that is over two decades old, that started back in 1988 and is reaching conclusion now, and also a Jaws of Death pattern from mid-2014 that is also completing now. See the charts for these patterns below:

The significance of this confluence cannot be overstated. A huge directional change in markets is fast approaching. We believe there could be a stock market crash later this year, perhaps in the September – October time period, after the approaching major trend turn begins. The Federal Reserve is about to lift short-term interest rates during a period of time when except for Manhattan and the surrounding areas that enjoyed a $5.0 trillion influx of cash from the Fed’s various Quantitative Easing programs, most of the U.S. economy is not prospering. This is a formula for a recession or worse. The higher value of the Dollar has placed increased pressure on U.S. exports which will eventually show up in a retardation in the growth of corporate earnings. Real Estate remains at a standstill. Newly created family supporting jobs are not sufficient to handle demand as evidenced by the failure of the involuntary part-time employment figures to decline along with the reported increase in non-farm payroll jobs in the latest bogus employment figures, which included an estimate, a guess, a hope from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that half the jobs created came from new businesses they think started up in February. Anybody who knows anything about jobs in new businesses knows that most of the time the cash compensation is below market — if new employees are being paid in cash at all. These new jobs that supposedly were created in February from new businesses are not counted by the BLS. They are a guesstimate. The point is, fundamental economic growth is not what we are being led to believe is the case. Our economy remains weak, so an increase in interest rates would be a repeat of what the Fed did back at the start of the Great Depression in the 1930s. There are systemic issues of risk that are a serious threat to our economy, the out of control amount of derivatives to mention one, the out of control federal debt, for another, the unfunded federal liabilities for entitlements a third, and the risk of another Wall Street meltdown contagion should a major bank go down the tubes. Back to the technicals, we saw another stock market Hindenburg Omen observation on Friday, March 13th. If we get a second observation over the next 30 days, that will generate the third independent Hindenburg Omen that contemporaneously remains on the clock over the same next 30 trading days as mentioned at the start of this article. We also got an H.O. in December that remains on the clock through April, and also got an official H.O. in January that remains on the clock through May 2015. This is a highly unusual event, a series of Hindenburg potential stock market crash signals within a few months. An H.O means there is a 20 percent chance for a stock market crash, which is substantially above random, and we must also mention that there has only been one decline greater than 15 percent over the past 30 years that was not preceded by a Hindenburg Omen. H.O.’s mean the stock market is a seriously unhealthy condition. I will wrap up this article with details of the coming Fibonacci Cluster turn window we have identified. There is a major trend turn coming to stock markets sometime over the next one to four weeks, and the below chart analysis suggests sometime between March 18th and April 22nd. While it is unusual for us to present a Fibonacci cycle turn window with such a wide range of date possibilities, in this case 25 trading days (normally we point out turns with a 5 to 7 day possibility range), this time is different. Normally we see 4 to 6 past tops or bottoms a Fibonacci number of trading days from a future turn period, however this time we have spotted ten. That is not all, these ten are consecutive Fibonacci turn numbers starting at 34 trading days and running through 2,584. That is incredibly unusual.

While not a certainty, as there are no guarantees, if I was to venture an educated opinion, I believe it is probable that the stock market will top during the above Fibonacci cluster turn window, and continue to decline for years. I also believe that this autumn 2015 will see a stock market crash within this imminent multi-year stock market decline. It is possible this turn is so important that it started early, on March 2nd. We have found that when there is a cluster of trading days within a short period of time that are a Fibonacci number of trading days from a key top or bottom turn from the past, there is a higher than normal probability that a significant trend turn is coming around that cluster time period. What are Fibonacci numbers? They are an incredible set of numbers that seem to rule markets, both in terms of distance of price moves and timing, and rule physics and art throughout the universe. The Fibonacci number sequence starts with the number one, and then when it adds it to itself, it produces the next Fib number, which would be 2 (1+1), then if we take that resultant number and add it to the previous Fib number in the sequence, it produces the next Fib number, which would be 3 (2+1), then the next number is 3 + the previous number in this sequence which was 2 resulting in 5 (3 + 2), then 8 (5 + 3), then 13 (8 + 5), then 21 ( 13 + 8), etc…, which gets us the sequence 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987, 1597, 2584, etc…. What is incredibly unique about this sequence is the two component numbers, when divided by their combined result, will approximate at the low end, and otherwise equal either .382 or .618. The ratio .618 is known as phi. For example, for the Fibonacci number 21, its two components are 13 and 8. If we divide 13 into 21, 13/21 = .618 and 8/21 = .382. The larger the numbers, the more precise they come to .382 and .618. 233/377 = .618 and 144/377 = .382. So, getting back to our Fibonacci Cluster for mid-March through mid-April: * April 6th, 2015 is a Fibonacci 2,584 Trading Days from the December 28th, 2004 Top. March 27th, 2015 is a Fibo 1,597 Trading Days from the November 20th, 2008 Major Low. April 22nd, 2015, is a Fibonacci 987 Trading Days from the May 19th, 2011 Top. April 9th, 2015 is a Fibonacci 610 Trading Days from the November 1st, 2012 Top. April 10th, 2015 is a Fibonacci 377 Trading Days from the October 8th, 2013 Major Low. April 16th, 2015 is a Fibonacci 233 Trading Days from the May 13th, 2014 Minor High. April 17th, 2015 is a Fibonacci 144 Trading Days from the September 19th, 2014 Top. April 16th, 2015 is a Fibonacci 89 Trading Days from the December 5th, 2014 High. March 18th, 2015 is a Fibonacci 55 Trading Days from the December 26th, 2014 Top. March 20th, 2015 is a Fibonacci 34 Trading Days from the January 30th, 2015 Low. Our conclusion: Something big is about to affect markets. The world’s biggest hedge fund is scared that a U.S. interest rate hike later this year will send markets into a 1937-style tailspin, but experts told CNBC that they aren’t too concerned. In a note to clients that was widely-discussed on Tuesday, Ray Dalio, founder of the $165 billion hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, raised concerns that a Federal Reserve rate hike in June or September could create a market rout similar to the one seen in 1937 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/102512945). Bridgewater highlighted several similarities between current financial market conditions and 1937: The economy is rebounding, interest rates are at zero and asset prices are enjoying a strong rally. In 1937, the U.S. central bank tightened monetary policy under the belief that the downturn arising from the 1929 Great Depression was over, but its actions tipped the country back into a recession and saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average (http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/.DJI) lost half its value in a year. “I don’t think we’re in for a replay of 1937,” Jeffrey Franklin, professor of capital formation and growth at the Harvard Kennedy School, told CNBC on Wednesday. “The situation was pretty different. When the government prematurely re-enacted fiscal and monetary tightening back then, unemployment rates were still sky high.” However, the current strength of the U.S. labor market has been a defining feature of the economic recovery. Data for February showed unemployment falling to its lowest level since 2008, while the creation of 295,000 jobs was the strongest in three months. Rate increases may not have been the sole reason behind the 1937 stock market crash, Marc Faber, editor and publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, told CNBC, so investors must keep that in mind when making comparisons. Dalio’s assertions and the debate it sparked come ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s policy decision later on Wednesday, where the majority of traders expect the central bank to remove the word ‘patient’ from its policy statement. Read MoreExpect a more hawkish Yellen this time: Analysts (http://www.cnbc.com/id/102511924)

Slow and steady Officials are aware of the risks behind raising rates too fast and will likely start with a tiny increase, which should mitigate market damage, said John Carey, executive vice president and portfolio manager of Pioneer Investments. “The general view is that they might start with a quarter of a percent and see what happens. The upper end of their interest rate target may be around 2 percent within the next couple of years assuming the economy continues growing,” he added, noting that markets have already priced this possibility into stocks. A rate hike will be conducted like “a surgical procedure,” economists at Mizuho Bank said in a note on Wednesday, adding that the Fed will ensure that the initial hike won’t be confused for an aggressive hiking cycle. Several investment experts don’t expect any major market declines when a rate hike does eventually occur. “Our internal view at Cumberland Advisors is that the first rate hike will not trigger a market selloff,” said David Kotok, chief investment officer at Cumberland in a note on its website last month. “Further, we do not expect the bond market to sell off and interest rates to go shooting up when the Fed raises the interest rate from zero by an eighth or a quarter percent.” Nyshka Chandran (http://www.cnbc.com/id/100627143)Assistant Producer, CNBC Asia-Pacific Peter Schiff (http://www.cnbc.com/id/43975611) has a simple message for traders: you don’t need patience. While Wall Street waits on whether or not the Fed (http://www.cnbc.com/id/43752521) will include the word “patient” in its statement Wednesday, the CEO of Euro Pacific Capital is instead waiting for something else: another round of quantitative easing (http://www.cnbc.com/id/43268061). Read MoreFirst rate hike now likely in August: CNBC Fed Survey (http://www.cnbc.com/id/102509425) “I think the Fed is more likely to launch QE4 than it is to raise interest rates,” Schiff told “Futures Now” (http://www.cnbc.com/id/48227449) on Tuesday. “Wall Street is looking for the Fed to take [the word ‘patient’] away because the Fed wants to maintain the pretense that they are actually going to raise rates, but I don’t think that’s going to happen at all.” Despite a falling unemployment rate (http://www.cnbc.com/id/10000817) and record stock prices (http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/SPY-AU), Schiff contends the U.S. economy is much weaker than it appears, and that any move by the central bank to raise rates would only derail an already fragile economy. “The U.S. economy is sicker than ever,” said Schiff. “And the Fed is going to launch QE4 for the same reason they launched QE3, 2 and 1. They’re going to try to stimulate the economy. Now that they stopped QE, the air is coming out of this bubble.” And according to Schiff, if the Fed does raise interest rates later this year, the outcome will be catastrophic. “I think without QE4, we will be back in recession,” he said. “It’s going to be horrible. There’s going to be a worse financial crisis than 2008.” Of course, Schiff has made similar claims before as well as wildly optimistic calls on gold, most of which have yet to come to fruition. Read MoreExpect a more hawkish Yellen this time: Analysts (http://www.cnbc.com/id/102511924) But despite being on the wrong side of a five-year bearish call, Schiff appears to be sticking to his guns. “I’m not saying the sky is falling,” he said. “But the U.S. economy is in a lot of trouble and we haven’t recovered from anything thanks to the Fed.” Schiff had this response to his naysayers, “People are just oblivious.” bumi2009fans

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May 7, 2015May 6, 2015

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diam2suka: BOOM kita … 27052014_060515 (n0 m0r3 FRAG1L3 5 @ IND0ne$14) TEKNIKAL money flow index MENUJU 90an, momentum ihsg menuju 5500 s/d 6K pada 2015, well, let’s see (http://indekshargasahamgabunganindonesia.blogspot.com/2014/05/ekspektasi-positif-pasca-pilpres-2014.html) TEMPO.CO , Jakarta: Ekonom Universitas Indonesia, Lana Soelistianingsih mengatakan pertumbuhan ekonomi quartal to quartal telah dua kali mengalami minus berturut-turut. Kuartal keempat tahun 2014 minus 2,1 persen dan kuartal pertama tahun ini minus 0,18 persen. Menurut dia, jika kondisi ini berlangsung sekali lagi maka Indonesia memasuki masa resesi secara textbook. Ini artinya ekonomi melambat di bawah garis 0 persen. “Ini tidak lagi lampu kuning, tapi lampu merah. Apa perlu kita minus 3 kali baru diperbaiki, enggak usah menunggu bahaya lagi,” katanya kepada Tempo, Ahad 5 Mei 2015. Lana menambahkan, pertumbuhan ekonomi secara kuartal lebih realistis dibanding year on year karena lebih menunjukkan kondisi yang sebenarnya. Anjloknya ekonomi dua triwulan berturut-turut ini perlu diwaspadai pemerintah. Dia berkata, ekonomi mengalami penurunan sejak Bank Indonesia mengumumkan BI rate tahun 2013 yang didesain untuk memperlambat ekonomi. Namun perlambatan ekonomi menjadi lebih dalam karena ada gangguan dalam konsumsi masyarakat, seperti kenaikan harga barang-barang yang di antaranya adalah tarif bahan bakar minyak (BBM )dan elpiji. Untuk memperbaiki kondisi ini, kata dia, langkah yang paling realistis adalah pemerintah harus memperbaiki konsumsinya. Yakni, dengan cara mengontrol pengeluarannya sendiri. Lana mencontohkan dengan mempercepat realiasasi penyerapan anggaran dan percepatan pembangunan infrastruktur. “Itu yang bisa dikontrol secara langsung.” Direktur Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) Enny Sri Hartati mengatakan sebenarnya pertumbuhan ekonomi dapat tumbuh 5 persen tanpa campur tangan pemerintah. Saat ini pertumbuhan sektor industri mencapai 3,87 persen. “Pemerintah enggak hanya tidur tetapi ngerecokin,” katanya. Enny menambahkan, bentuk gangguan pemerintah dalam pertumbuhan ekonomi yang ikut memperlemah sektor konsumsi adalah kenaikan harga BBM dan elpiji. Kenaikan tersebut membuat konsumsi rumah tangga dan daya beli masyarakat anjlok. Selain itu adanya high cost economy yang menyebabkan kinerja sektor riil turun. Diantara high cost tersebut adalah, suku bunga yang tinggi, mahalnya biaya transportasi dan logistik, kenaikan upah dan depresiasi rupiah. “Itu semua menjadi tekanan dunia usaha kita,” katanya. ALI HIDAYAT JAKARTA kontan. Investor pasar modal memproyeksi perlambatan ekonomi kuartal I-2015. Proyeksi tersebut berdampak pada koreksi di bursa saham maupun pasar obligasi sepanjang minggu lalu. Namun apakah perlambatan ekonomi periode Januari-Maret tersebut akan berlangsung sepanjang tahun 2015? Direktur Pengembangan Bisnis Manulife Aset Manajemen Indonesia, Putut E Andanawarih mengatakan, kondisi pasar modal pada akhir April lalu memang tengah pesimistis. Namun, “menjadi tidak adil juga jika perlambatan ekonomi kuartal I-2015 digunakan sebagai satu-satunya acuan bahwa sepanjang 2015 ini kondisi makro ekonomi akan terus memburuk,” papar Putut, Senin (4/5). Menurutnya, propek ekonomi Indonesia jangka panjang masih cukup positif. Ia mencontohkan Presiden Joko Widodo sudah mulai melakukangroundbreaking sejumlah proyek infrastruktur seperti program sejuta rumah, pembangkit listrik dan pembangunan jalan tol. Putut mengatakan dampak proyek-proyek seperti itu tidak akan terlihat dalam jangka pendek namun menumbuhkan tingkat kepercayaan investor jangka panjang. Berikut asumsi MAMI terhadap ekonomi makro Indonesia sepanjang 2015: Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB): 5% – 5,5% Inflasi: 5,25% – 6,25% BI rate: 7% – 7,5% Kurs USD/IDR: Rp 12.700 – Rp 13.500 Defisit Transaksi Berjalan dari PDB: 2,5% – 3% Pertumbuhan laba emiten per saham (Earnings Per Share/EPS): 9% – 12% Editor: Sanny Cicilia TEMPO.CO , Jakarta: Ekonomi ASEAN diyakini akan bertumbuh 4,9 persen tahun ini, di atas pertumbuhan global 3,5 persen. Optimisme itu karena negara-negara ASEAN menjadi tujuan investasi yang paling menarik. Tentang pertumbuhan ekonomi ASEAN yang diperkirakan akan melampaui global disampaikan oleh 10 kepala negara dalam sebuah pernyataan bersama menyambut ASEAN Summit ke-26 di Malaysia awal pekan ini. Seperti dilansir Inquirer.net, Sabtu 2 Mei 2015, pertumbuhan itu dimotori konsumsi domestik yang naik signfikan, terutama sektor swasta. Investasi di kawasan ASEAN bertumbuh 15,7 persen pada 2014 dibandingkan tahun sebelumnya menjadi US$ 136,2 miliar atau sekitar 1.771,35 triliun. Total perdagangan di ASEAN untuk tahun yang sama naik tipis menjadi US$ 2,53 triliun. Terkait rencana pemberlakuan penyatuan ekonomi ASEAN dalam wadah Masyarakat Ekonomi ASEAN (ASEAN Economic Community), para kepala negara menyatakan tetap seperti jadwal semula tanggal 1 Januari 2016. MEA akan menjadi pasar tunggal bagi produk barang dan jasa, tenaga kerja serta investasi negara-negara ASEAN. Sejauh ini negara-negara ASEAN berhasil menyepakati sekitar 90,5 persen dari 506 rencana aksi (measure action plan). Dengan pencapaian itu, diyakini rencana pemberlakukan MEA akan sesuai target tanggal 1 Januari 2016. Inquirer.net|SETIAWAN ADIWIJAYA Jakarta, CNN Indonesia — Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) mengklarifikasi pernyataan Sekretaris Kabinet Andi Widjajanto soal posisi utang pemerintah di lembaga multilateral tersebut. Adviser IMF Benedict Bingham menegaskan Indonesia tidak memiliki utang ke IMF. “Ada sejumlah pernyataan terbaru tentang kewajiban Indonesia untuk IMF. Indonesia saat ini tidak memiliki pinjaman dari IMF,” kata Bingham dalam keterangan resminya, seperti dikutip dari situs resmi IMF, Rabu (29/4). Bingham menjelaskan utang yang tercatat di Statistik Utang Luar Negeri Indonesia berkaitan dengan fasilitas special drawing right (SDR) yang dialokasikan ke setiap negara anggota IMF, tak terkecuali Indonesia. Menurutnya, IMF mengalokasikan SDR untuk semua negara anggota sesuai dengan kuota masing-masing di IMF. “Alokasi SDR Indonesia saat ini adalah SDR 1,98 miliar atau sekitar US$ 2,8 miliar,” katanya. Bingham mengatakan alokasi SDR tersebut dipersamakan dengan aset cadangan devisa yang sewaktu-waktu dapat digunakan suatu negara untuk memperkuat cadangan devisa. “Jadi, ketika SDR dialokasikan tidak ada perubahan dalam utang bersih anggota untuk IMF,” tuturnya. Sebelumnya, Andi Wijayanto mengungkap statistik utang luar negeri Indonesia yang dicatatkan BI per 31 Januari 2015. Berdasarkan pengamatannya, masih ada sisa utang ke IMF sebesar US$ 2,79 miliar yang berlum terbayarkan oleh Indonesia. Selain keempat pilar kokoh yang dibutuhkan, harus diperkuat lagi dengan dua fondasi utama sehingga dapat mencapai pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berkesinambungan. “Fondasi pertama yaitu, modal dasar pembangunan. Pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berkesinambungan sangat bergantung pada ketersediaan lingkungan pendukung yang perlu ditopang oleh ketersediaan modal-modal dasar pembangunan yang kuat. Dijelaskannya, modal dasar pembangunan ada infrastruktur, modal manusia, inovasi teknologi dan kelembagaan, dengan modal tersebut didukung ketersediaan lingkungan pendukung, pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berkesinambungan akan tercapai. Fondasi keduanya ialah stabilitas ekonomi makro dan SK. Dalam upaya mempercepat reformasi struktural terdapat persyaratan paling mendasar yang perlu dipenuhi, yaitu stabilitas ekonomi makro dan sistem keuangan. “Prasyarat proses pembangunan nasional seperti stabilitas ekonomi makro dan stabilitas ekonomi keuangan, dan kedua ini menjadi tantangan kita ke depannya,”tegasnya. Ia berharap, dari pemaparan yang dijelaskan terkait tantangan domestik perekonomian Indonesia, pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berkesinambungan dapat tercapai dengan empat pilar yang kokoh dan dua fondasi utama. http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/04/29/20/1141788/empat-pilar-yang-tentukan-nasib-perekonomian-ri (http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/04/29/20/1141788/empat-pilar-yangtentukan-nasib-perekonomian-ri) Sumber : OKEZONE.COM JAKARTA— Kinerja obligasi pemerintah terlemah pada perdagangan Selasa (28/4/2015). Dari perhitungan rata-rata kinerja obligasi di dalam negeri oleh Infovesta Utama, terhitung kinerja obligasi pemerintah memberikan return satu hari sebesar minus 0,44%. Sebaliknya obligasi korporasi memberikan return satu hari sebesar +0,04%, dan obligasi syariah memberikan hasil +0,01%. “Pasar surat utang (negara) mengalami penurunan cukup dalam, terlihat indeks obligasi pemerintah yang turun sebesar 0,44% kemarin (28/4/2015),” kata Analis Infovesta Utama Praska Putrantyo saat dihubungi hari ini, Rabu (29/4/2015). Kinerja obligasi Selasa (28/4/2015) Indeks obligas Nilai Return 1 Hari (%) Pemerintah 6.103,90 -0,44 Korporasi 2.440,16 +0,04 Syariah 2.603,05 +0,01 http://market.bisnis.com/read/20150429/92/427975/setelah-ihsg-anjlok-obligasi-pemerintah-terperosok (http://market.bisnis.com/read/20150429/92/427975/setelah-ihsg-anjlok-obligasipemerintah-terperosok) Sumber : BISNIS.COM Jakarta — Menteri BUMN Rini Mariani Soemarno menyatakan, lembaga keuangan Republik Rakyat Tiongkok berkomitmen memberikan investasi untuk pembangunan infrastruktur di Tanah Air senilai US$50 miliar. “Pembicaraan kami ketika di RRT bahwa telah ditandatangani MoU di mana China Development Bank akan menyiapkan dana sebesar US$20 miliar, ICBC US$20 miliar, dan satu lagi bersedia US$10 miliar yang dialokasikan untuk PT PLN Persero,” ujar Rini di gedung DPR MPR RI, Kamis (23/4) malam. Menurut dia, perusahaan BUMN yang akan menerima alokasi dana sebesar US$40 miliar masih dikaji. Saat ini, pihaknya tengah melakukan finalisasi pendanaan sebesarUS$50 miliar. “Kami harapkan studi kelayakan penerima dana dapat selesai sebelum akhir tahun, dan diharapkan akhir Juli dananya mulai ada yang cair,” katanya. Pada 26 Maret 2015, pemerintah Indonesia dan RRT telah menandatangani nota kesepahaman yang dituangkan dalam Statement Bersama Kemitraan Strategis Komprehensif Antara Pemerintah Republik Indonesia (RI) dengan Pemerintahan RRT. Tema pertemuan bilateral adalah Kemitraan untuk Perdamaian dan Kesejahteraan. Adapun penandatangan delapan dokumen kerjasama, yang meliputi: 1. MoU Kerjsama Ekonomi antara Menko Perekonomian RI dengan Komisi Nasional Pembangunan dan Reformasi RRT 2. MoU Kerjasama Pembangunan Industri dan Infrastruktur antara Komisi Nasional Pembangunan dan Reformasi RRT dengan Menteri BUMN 3. MoU Antara Menteri BUMN dengan Komisi Nasional Pembangunan dan Reformasi RRT Untuk Proyek Pembangunan Kereta Cepat Jakarta – Bandung 4. MoU antara Badan SAR Nasional (BASARNAS) RI dengan Menteri Transportasi RRT 5. Perjanjian Kerjasama Antara Pemerintah RI dan RRT untuk pencegahan pajak berganda 6. MoU antara Lembaga Pengembangan Antariksa Nasional (LAPAN) dengan Badan Antariksa Nasional RRT 7. MoU Kerjasama antara Menteri BUMN dengan China Development Bank Corporation (CDBC). http://www.imq21.com/news/read/296382/20150424/060045/Perbankan-Tiongkok-Kucurkan-Kredit-ke-BUMN-US-50-Miliar.html (http://www.imq21.com/news/read/296382/20150424/060045/Perbankan-Tiongkok-Kucurkan-Kredit-ke-BUMN-US-50-Miliar.html) Sumber : IMQ21.COM JAKARTA – Mantan Menteri Keuangan (Menkeu) Chatib Basri menilai meskipun neraca perdagangan surplus, Indonesia harus tetap berhati-hati lantaran adanya penurunan impor tajam.Dikutip dari Akun resminya @ChatibBasri mengatakan Indonesia jangan terbuai dengan pencapaian surplus. Sebaiknya Indonesia harus tetap fokus pada perbaikan ekspor. “Saya kira ada berita baik untuk Indonesia, neraca perdagangan surplus USD1,13 miliar. Ini baik sekali. Namun ada baiknya kita tetap hati-hati, mengapa? Karena suprlus yang besar ini, lebih didorong oleh penurunan impor yang tajam ketimbang perbaikan ekspor,” kata dia di Twitter, Rabu (15/4/2015) Lebih lanjut, dia mengatakan, jika melihat data, pada Maret 2015 (yoy) ekspor minus 6,6 persen, sedangkan impor dalam periode sama minus 13,39 persen. Pada Januari-Maret 2015 (yoy) ekspor minus 11,67 persen, sedangkan dalam periode yang sama impor minus 15,1 persen. Penurunan impornya lebih tajam, katanya. “Nah mengapa perlu hati-hati? Karena komponen impor terbesar adalah barang modal dan bahan baku. Impor barang modal tumbuh -10,3 persen dan bahan baku -16,1 persen,” imbuhnya. Menurutnya kalau impor barang modal, bahan baku turun perusahaan mengurangi pembelian bahan baku dan modal. “Karena itu kita surplus neraca perdagangan ini bisa jadi indikasi awal perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi,” tukasnya. Seperti diketahui, hari ini Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mencatat neraca perdagangan Indonesia surplus di angka USD 1,13 miliar di bulan Maret 2015. Ini merupakan kali ke 3 dalam tahun ini neraca perdagangan Indonesia surplus. http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/04/15/20/1134599/neraca-perdagangan-surplus-mantan-menkeu-cuit-cuit-di-twitter (http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/04/15/20/1134599/neraca-perdagangan-surplus-mantan-menkeu-cuit-cuit-di-twitter) Sumber : OKEZONE.COM Bekasi, Indonesia, April 15, 2015 (AFP) Indonesian factory manager Ronie, whose plant produces shoes for Western markets, is preparing for layoffs as orders fall and wages rise, an example of the challenge facing President Joko Widodo as he seeks to boost the country’s lacklustre manufacturers. Widodo is hoping to return the country’s factories to their former glory as he seeks to lift Southeast Asia’s biggest economy, which is growing at five-year lows, and reduce dependence on commodity exports. He faces numerous stumbling blocks — complex bureaucracy, rising salaries, creaking infrastructure — that have in many cases encouraged foreign companies to set up shop in other Asian countries seen as more business-friendly. Nevertheless the president, who took office in October, is moving fast. His government has streamlined the notoriously slow process for approving business licences, increased infrastructure spending, wants to make wage rises more predictable, and is striving to lure more foreign investment. The push can’t come soon enough for the country’s manufacturers, who make goods ranging from electronics to clothing and toys, but have long been neglected as Indonesia relied on money from natural resources, which is drying up as global prices fall. Ronie’s shoe factory in Bekasi, an industrial zone outside Jakarta, has seen orders plunge 35 percent in the past year. With wages rising steeply as unions flex their muscles, the production manager now plans to lay off a third of the plant’s 1,200 staff. “We are definitely worried,” Ronie, who like many Indonesians goes by one name, told AFP from a room in his factory full of designer shoes destined for shops in the United States and Europe. “This shoe factory is one of the last left in Bekasi, the others have closed.” – Tepid support – While worldwide factors — such as subdued demand in developed markets — have played a role, industry figures say the government’s tepid support means they have had little help in an increasingly competitive global environment. Economic data paints a bleak picture. In February, HSBC’s purchasing managers’ index of manufacturing activity for Indonesia hit a record low of 47.5. A reading below 50 indicates contraction. Observers had hoped that recent steep falls in the rupiah against the dollar would help exporters, but any advantage has been offset by the increased cost of imported goods, as many manufacturers have to import raw materials. Indonesia performs poorly compared to others in Southeast Asia. The country’s export of manufactured goods was a mere eight percent of GDP in 2012, data from the Economist Intelligence Unit showed, trailing rivals Vietnam at 50 per cent, Malaysia at 46 per cent and Thailand at 44 per cent. For factory bosses and investors mulling coming to Indonesia, steep and unpredictable annual salary increases have become a top concern, as trade unions become increasingly vocal and demand higher wages to keep up with increased living costs. As well as sharp variations from year to year, there are also large differences across the country, as wage rises are negotiated from province to province.

The government is seeking to come up with a new system to make wage rises more predictable, a move welcomed by the Indonesian Footwear Association, that represents the country’s $3.5billion-a-year shoe export industry “If this does not work, I believe very soon there will be another 10, or 15, or 20 factories moving from Indonesia,” association chairman Eddy Widjanarko told AFP. – Push for new ports, roads – Widodo’s push to improve infrastructure is also seen as key to helping manufacturers, as investors have long complained about ageing ports and potholed roads that hamper the transportation of goods. The president’s visit to China and Japan last month was focused on seeking investment for such projects, although analysts are sceptical about his chances of success in a country with a poor record on building infrastructure due to rampant corruption and problems with land acquisition. While factories already in Indonesia are suffering, others can’t even get a foot in the door. Taiwan technology giant Foxconn announced plans to invest back in 2012, but is yet to start operations in Indonesia as it remains locked in negotiations with the government. Despite the challenges, there are already signs that Widodo’s new approach is generating greater optimism. Richard Hakim, who owns a leather shoe factory in Bogor, south of Jakarta, has raised his production targets and hired more workers on top of the nearly 3,000 employees on the assembly floor making trendy loafers for foreign markets. “We try out best to convince our buyers that we can make the shoes good quality, and deliver on time,” he said. JAKARTA. Bank Indonesia (BI) mengumumkan tekanan global terhadap perekonomian nasional mulai mereda. Ini akan memberi kesempatan bagi pemerintah untuk mendongkrak pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 5,4%-5,8%. Namun, bank sentral lebih optimistis bahwa ekonomi Indonesia tahun ini hanya akan tumbuh 5,4%. Hasil Rapat Dewan Gubernur (RDG) Selasa (14/4), BI menyatakan, luruhnya tekanan global datang dari Amerika Serikat (AS). BI memperkirakan bank sentral AS Federal Reserve (The Fed) akan lebih lambat menaikkan suku bunga karena data ekonomi AS kurang memuaskan. Awalnya, kenaikan suku bunga diperkirakan berlangsung pada kuartal II atau III tahun ini, tapi kemungkinan mundur hingga kuartal IV. Selain itu, kenaikan suku bunga The Fed juga hanya akan kecil, sehingga tak akan berpengaruh signifikan terhadap dana asing di Indonesia. Selain itu, ekonomi Eropa akan bergerak membaik. Kebijakan Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) membeli aset mendorong kembali dana asing masuk ke Indonesia. Di pasar modal, dana asing yang keluar sepanjang Maret 2015 mencapai Rp 5,43 triliun, sedangkan April ini sudah masuk sebesar Rp 325,88 miliar. BI mencatat aliran modal masuk portofolio asing yang masuk ke pasar keuangan Indonesia hingga Maret mencapai US$ 3,5 miliar. Nilai tukar rupiah sejak awal April bisa menguat dan keluar dari zona Rp 13.000 per dollar AS, tak seperti bulan Maret yang kerap di atas Rp 13.000. Berdasarkan kurs tengah BI, Selasa (14/4), rupiah berada di level Rp 12.979. “Tekanan pada rupiah mereda dan mengalami penguatan sejak pertengahan Maret pasca pertemuan Federal Open Market Committee AS,” ujar Direktur Eksekutif Departemen Komunikasi BI Tirta Segara, Selasa kemarin (14/4). Hanya saja, apresiasi positif ini tidak membuat BI lantas menurunkan suku bunganya. Dalam Rapat Dewan Gubernur BI kemarin (14/4), diputuskan BI rate tetap 7,5%. Begitu juga suku bunga deposit facility dan lending facility tetap pada level masing-masing 5,5% dan 8%. Alasannya, kebijakan ini demi mencapai inflasi 4% plus minus 1% pada 2015 dan 2016 serta mengarahkan defisit transaksi berjalan ke tingkat yang lebih sehat 2,5%-3% terhadap PDB. Belanja infrastruktur Kini, dengan tekanan yang mereda, kunci utama pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional ada di tangan pemerintah. Bagi BI, masih ada harapan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia tahun ini mencapai batas atas, 5,7%, seperti target pemerintah di APBNP 2015. Tapi pemerintah harus bekerja keras mendorong kegiatan investasi. Saat ini, pertumbuhan investasi masih tertahan namun berpotensi meningkat di triwulan II dan triwulan selanjutnya. Realisasi proyek pemerintah ini akan mendukung konsumsi masyarakat. “Pencapaian pertumbuhan tahun ini akan dipengaruhi seberapa besar dan cepat realisasi proyek infrastruktur pemerintah,” terang Tirta. Pemerintah juga harus menjaga inflasi tetap stabil. Tahun ini, risiko yang bisa mendongkrak inflasi adalah pasokan bahan pangan serta harga yang diatur pemerintah. Pemerintah harus mengendalikan dua hal itu. Ekonom Senior UOB Group Ho Woei Chen menilai BI terlalu optimistis dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional. Menurutnya ekonomi RI tahun ini hanya akan tumbuh 5%. Harga komoditi yang rendah menjadi salah satu penyebab pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia melambat. http://nasional.kontan.co.id/news/tekanan-reda-ri-bisa-tumbuh-54 (http://nasional.kontan.co.id/news/tekanan-reda-ri-bisa-tumbuh-54) Sumber : KONTAN.CO.ID JAKARTA kontan. Kunjungan kerja Presiden Joko Widodo (Jokowi) dan Ibu Negara Iriana Joko Widodo beserta rombongan ke Jepang dan Tiongkok pada 22-28 Maret 2015 menghasilkan komitmen bisnis senilai sekitar US$71,44 miliar. Kepala Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal (BKPM) Franky Sibarani setelah mendarat mengakhiri kunjungan kenegaraan bersama Presiden Jokowi mengatakan kunjungan kenegaraan ke dua negara itu diperkirakan mampu mendorong terjadinya komitmen bisnis hingga mencapai US$71,44 miliar yang terdiri dari berbagai macam rencana proyek dan investasi. “Komitmen itu terdiri dari komitmen dengan pengusaha di Jepang dan komitmen dengan pengusaha di Tiongkok,” katanya di Bandara Soekarno-Hatta, Sabtu (28/3). Ia mengatakan di Jepang misalnya, komitmen kerja sama “business to business” yang bisa dihimpun mencapai US$5,6 miliar. “Toyota misalnya sudah berkomitmen untuk memperluas investasi US$1,6 miliar, ditambah Suzuki sebesar satu miliar dolar AS, dan kerja sama ‘business to business’ lain antara pengusaha Indonesia dan Jepang mencapai tiga miliar dolar AS,” katanya. Dalam kunjungannya di Jepang, Presiden Jokowi menghadiri forum kerja sama bisnis yang dihadiri oleh 1.200 pengusaha dari Jepang. Pada kesempatan itu, Jokowi menawarkan peluang investasi yang bisa digarap investor Jepang di Indonesia sekaligus insentif yang akan diberikan termasuk kemudahan perizinan dan insentif pajak yang menarik bagi investor yang menjadikan Indonesia sebagai basis produksi ekspor. Sementara di Tiongkok, berhasil dihimpun komitmen kerja sama senilai US$68,1 miliar ditambah dengan komitmen dalam mata uang yuan sebesar 2,1 miliar RMB atau setara US$340 juta. Dengan begitu total komitmen bisnis yang dibawa pulang dari Tiongkok mencapai US$68,440 miliar. Jadi kunjungan kenegaraan Presiden Jokowi, kata Franky, mampu menarik terjadinya komitmen hingga mencapai US$71,45 miliar. Pada kesempatan itu Presiden Jokowi di hadapan 450 pengusaha Tiongkok memaparkan rencana kerjanya selama lima tahun ke depan setelah sebelumnya bertemu dengan PM Li Keqiang dan sehari sebelumnya dengan Presiden Xi Jinping. Komitmen dan proyek kerja sama itu sebagian besar di bidang infrastruktur, perikanan dan lain-lain. Namun, ia mengingatkan soal “investment rate” kedua negara itu yang harus juga diperhitungkan. Rekam jejak Tiongkok selama ini hanya 1:10 sedangkan Jepang 1:6,5 yang artinya untuk di Tiongkok dari 10 komitmen hanya 1 yang terealisasi sementara dari Jepang lebih tinggi yakni dari 10 komitmen sebanyak 6,5 terealisasi. Namun, Franky menekankan pemerintah telah mengupayakan untuk meningkatkan angka “investment rate” melalui berbagai kebijakan di antaranya Pelayanan Terpadu Satu Pintu (PTSP) dan insentif pajak. Editor: Yudho Winarto Sumber: Antara (http://nasional.kontan.co.id/news/antara.co.id) Beijing, March 26, 2015 (AFP) Indonesian President Joko Widodo said on Thursday that his country is firmly behind a new China-backed regional investment bank and sees it playing a stabilising role. “Indonesia supports the AIIB and hopes it can be a tool for financial stability,” Widodo said in a joint appearance with Chinese President Xi Jinping after they held talks, referring to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Britain, Germany, France and Italy are among Western countries expressing their intention to join the $50 billion bank, despite scepticism about the institution in Washington, which leads the World Bank, and Japan, which leads the Asian Development Bank (ADB). China, the world’s second-largest economy, has moved to assuage worries it wants the AIIB to usurp the role of the established World Bank and ADB, citing Asia’s growing need for infrastructure financing. South Korea on Thursday became the latest country with close ties to the US to say it would seek membership in the bank. Widodo also said that he hopes Indonesia and China can achieve a currency swap agreement, realise bilateral trade of $150 billion by 2020 and expand tourist visits to 10 million next year. “Indonesia hopes China will give ordinary passport holders visa-free access just like Indonesia has done for ordinary Chinese passport holders,” he said. “Upon realising this goal, we can both better experience our strategic partnership, in a more specific and practical way.” Widodo, who took office in October, was in Japan for a four-day state visit before arriving in China. He has vowed to boost Indonesia’s economic growth, which slipped to its slowest pace in five years in 2014, but needs extra investment to help with an ambitious programme of building new infrastructure. Eight agreements signed between Chinese and Indonesian government agencies on Thursday included avoidance of double taxation, cooperation in the Jakarta high speed railway project and cooperation in aerospace as well as marine search and rescue. None, however, involved private companies. Xi meanwhile, said China will urge more investment in the Southeast Asian country. Widodo also expanded his comments beyond bilateral ties. “Today, we see there are many problems in the world that are caused when force is used to solve problems, for example Iraq, Syria and Libya,” he said. “Indonesia hopes more countries can adhere to UN standards when resolving disputes.” Xi, for his part, said that the two countries have much in common. “In regional and international matters, we have the same interests which makes us share the same responsibilities,”he said. Widodo also invited Xi to participate in activities next month commemorating the 60th anniversary of the Asian-African Conference. Also known as the Bandung Conference for the Indonesian city in which it was held, the gathering was a significant development in forging a common identity among developing nations, many of which were just emerging from decades of foreign occupation and colonialism. JAKARTA, INDONESIA – Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia diperkirakan akan naik kembali di dua tahun mendatang, apabila pemerintah yang baru dapat mempertahankan momentum reformasi struktural seperti pengurangan subsidi bahan bakar. Hal ini diungkapkan dalam laporan terbaru Asian Development Bank (ADB) yang dirilis hari ini. “Pemerintahan Presiden Joko Widodo telah memulai reformasi kebijakan untuk memperbaiki iklim investasi. Kami berharap pemerintah dapat melanjutkan upaya ini dengan mengeluarkan berbagai kebijakan yang mempercepat pembangunan infrastruktur, mengurangi biaya logistik, dan memperkuat proses implementasi anggaran,” kata Deputy Country Director ADB Indonesia, Edimon Ginting. “Terdapat sejumlah risiko, baik internal seperti pendapatan yang lebih rendah, dan eksternal seperti potensi melemahnya pertumbuhan mitra perdagangan utama serta kenaikan suku bunga Amerika Serikat, namun pemerintah telah memiliki berbagai persiapan untuk mengelola risiko tersebut.” Dalam publikasi ekonomi tahunannya, Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2015, ADB memproyeksikan pertumbuhan PDB Indonesia akan mencapai 5,5% tahun ini, dan 6,0% pada 2016. Pada 2014, perekonomian Indonesia tumbuh 5,0%. Salah satu pendorong utama bagi pertumbuhan yang diharapkan adalah pengurangan subsidi bahan bakar pada November lalu. Hal ini sangat memperbaiki kondisi fiskal dan menyebabkan tersedianya sumberdaya yang besar untuk dialokasikan ke hal-hal yang lebih produktif, termasuk infrastruktur fisik dan sosial. Penghematan tersebut memungkinkan pemerintah untuk menambah alokasi belanja modal 2015 hingga lebih dari dua kali lipat, meningkatkan belanja program pendidikan dan kesehatan, serta menurunkan target defisit fiskal menjadi 1,9% dari PDB. Faktor-faktor lain yang dikutip oleh ADO adalah rencana untuk menaikkan penerimaan pajak, eksekusi anggaran yang lebih baik, reformasi kebijakan untuk mendorong investasi pihak swasta, pengeluaran rumah tangga yang besar, serta penurunan tajam angka inflasi. Setelah mengalami perlambatan pertumbuhan selama empat tahun, 2014 menandai munculnya reformasi kebijakan untuk mendorong pemulihan ekonomi, yang dilaksanakan oleh pemerintah baru yang dilantik Oktober lalu. Selanjutnya, pelaku ekonomi menunggu apakah pemerintah dapat mempertahankan momentum reformasi tersebut dan mengembangkan sektor manufaktur yang berorientasi pada ekspor. Menghidupkan kembali sektor manufaktur adalah salah satu tantangan kebijakan terbesar bagi Indonesia setelah commodity boom memudar. Indonesia memerlukan sumber pertumbuhan ekspor baru untuk mengembalikan pertumbuhan PDB di atas 6%. Meski demikian, sektor manufaktur masih terkendala oleh berbagai faktor, antara lain infrastruktur yang semakin tidak memadai, ketidakpastian aturan, dan biaya logistik yang tinggi. Terkait biaya logistik, pemerintah berencana untuk mengatasinya dengan berinvestasi besar-besaran pada infrastruktur pelabuhan dan transportasi, serta memperbaiki iklim investasi dengan layanan perizinan investasi satu atap. ADB, yang berbasis di Manila, dikhususkan untuk mengurangi kemiskinan di Asia dan Pasifik melalui pertumbuhan ekonomi yang inklusif, pertumbuhan yang menjaga kelestarian lingkungan hidup, dan integrasi kawasan. Didirikan pada 1966, ADB dimiliki oleh 67 anggota—48 di antara berada di kawasan Asia dan Pasifik.

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(https://iaminvestor.files.wordpress.com/2015/03/perb-remitensi-india_indo_usa-2013.png) JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com – Angin surga berhembus dari Bank raksasa Morgan Stanley. Bank yang bermarkas di Amerika itu menganggap Indonesia keluar dari kategori fragile five atau lima negara yang mata uangnya rawan terkena dampak kebijakan moneter Bank Sentral Amerika The Fed. Pada Agustus 2013 ketika The Fed mengumumkan akan menurunkan porsi kucuran stimulusnya atau quantitative easing (QE) sebesar 85 miliar dollar AS, Morgan Stanley mengidentifikasi lima negara berkembang dengan mata uang yang paling rentan terdampak yaitu Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turki, dan Afrika Selatan. Saat ini, Indonesia dan India dianggap sudah terhindar dari risiko. Ekonom Morgan Stanley mengaku Indonesia dan India sudah melakukan reformasi ekonomi yang cukup dengan meninggalkan model ekonominya yang lama. Dalam kasus Indonesia, Morgan Stanley melihat Indonesia telah mengambil langkah positif di mana Presiden Jokowi dalam lima bulan pertamanya menjabat telah menghapus subsidi bahan bakar minyak (BBM) premium dan menekan defisit anggaran ke 1,9 persen dari PDB. Menteri Keuangan Bambang Brodjonegoro menyambut positif Indonesia yang dianggap sudah bisa keluar dari fragile five. Ia mengakui, ketika ada gejolak pada rupiah maka pemerintah harus melakukan reformasi struktural. Pemerintah perlu mengeluarkan kebijakan untuk mengurangi current account deficit (CAD) atau defisit transaksi berjalan. Pemerintah telah membuat anggaran sehat dengan menghapus subsidi minyak premium. Hanya saja, dalam hal ini pemerintah masih perlu menurunkan CAD lebih jauh lagi. “Kebijakan tidak boleh berhenti (untuk kurangi CAD). Akan sambung terus,” ujar Bambang, Rabu (18/3/2015/2015). Kebijakan mengurangi CAD ini yang dalam waktu dekat akan dikeluarkan pemerintah dalam bentuk paket kebijakan baik untuk neraca dagang ataupun jasa. CAD jelas menjadi konsern pemerintah karena salah satu penyebab rupiah tertekan adalah defisit pada neraca transaksi berjalan yang terus terjadi sejak triwulan terakhir 2011. Pada 2014, CAD Indonesia sebesar 2,95 persen dari PDB. Untuk tahun ini karena impor belanja infrastruktur akan melonjak maka defisit masih akan berada pada level sekitar 3 persen dari PDB. (Margareta Engge Kharismawati)

Editor

: Erlangga Djumena

Sumber

: KONTAN (http://www.kontan.co.id)

Investing 3/11/2015 @ 3:48PM 2,359 views The ‘Fragile Five’ Are Back And Brazil Leads The Pack This is not a second act you want to be a part of, Brazil. Morgan Stanley MS +0.49%, the investment bank that launched the “Fragile Five” in September 2013, is back with a new band of emerging markets that will not fare well in a strong dollar environment. Brazil is the lead singer. And boy is it “desafinado”. The new list, which now includes Mexico in place of India, is exactly the same as it was in the months following the May 2013 taper tantrum. Brazil is the most worrisome due to a mix of external and internal factors., Morgan Stanley says. By now, every Brazil investor knows about the corruption scandal involving politicians, privately held construction companies and oil major Petrobras . Moody’s MCO +2.17% stripped it of investment grade status on Feb. 24. It’s destroyed investor sentiment in the company, the nation’s biggest. Petrobras was also the largest recipient of foreign direct investment. But with the company dialing down its expansion plans, fewer dollars will be flowing into Brazil. Last month, Seadrill announced it was taking a $1 billion Petrobras order of its books. The economy is expected to fall into a recession at some point this year. Consensus is for a contraction of around half a percent. The Institute for Geography and Statistics, IBGE, recently changed its methodology on GDP calculation. That could deal Brazil a positive GDP number this year instead. It might look good on paper, but in reality… Brazilian securities are being whipsawed. The local currency, the real, lost 35% against the dollar in the last six months, now trading at R$3.12. Barclays Capital says the currency will likely average R$3.00 to the dollar this year, worsening to R$3.15 next year. Brazil’s Central Bank is raising interest rates, unlike other Fragile Five members, and the country’s biggest trading partner — China — is slowing. There is also huge political risk involved in Brazil at this time because of Petrobras. Morgan Stanley said that out of the five, only Brazil faces the perfect storm of a weaker China, internal problems and higher interest rates in the U.S. On Wednesday, however, yield hungry investors poured into Brazil’s sovereign debt. The 2019 bond rose 1.77% to 123.75. Current yield on that dollar denominated bond is 3.28%. By comparison, Turkey 2020 bonds yield 2.2%, also trading higher today. Here’s how Brazil compares to the other band members in terms of forex depreciation year-to-date. Brazilian real: -16.8% Turkey lira: -11.49% Indonesia rupiah: -6.53% South Africa rand: -6.4% Mexico peso: -5.79% And in the equity markets: iShares Turkey (TUR): -18.39% iShares MSCI Brazil (EWZ): -16.37% iShares MSCI Mexico (EWW): -4.98% Market Vectors Indonesia (IDX): -2.43% iShares South Africa (EZA): -1.42%

GRAPHIC-From fragile five to troubled trio By Sujata Rao (http://blogs.reuters.com/search/journalist.php?edition=us&n=sujatarao&) and Karin Strohecker (http://blogs.reuters.com/search/journalist.php? edition=us&n=karin.strohecker&) LONDON, March 11 Wed Mar 11, 2015 8:37am EDT (Reuters) – South Africa’s rand, Turkey’s lira and Brazil’s real suffered some of the steepest losses in the recent emerging-market rout. Their peers in the so-called fragile five, India and Indonesia, escaped with less damage. The five countries got their name in 2013, as hints emerged that the U.S. Federal Reserve would end its easy-money policy. Bound together by sizeable current account deficits and reliance on foreign capital, they looked vulnerable to shocks such as a strong dollar and rising U.S. interest rates. In the latest emerging-market sell-off, Brazil has lost as much as 15 percent and Turkey 11.5 percent since the start of the year, as this graphic shows: link.reuters.com/kyj27v (http://link.reuters.com/kyj27v) “The poor performance (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/11/emerging-fragile-idUSL5N0WD27P20150311#) of the Brazilian real, Turkish lira and South African rand reflect continued strains in each country’s balance of payments,” Capital Economics said in a recent note. As this graphic shows, India has improved its current account deficits, becoming less reliant on foreign funds to prop up its economy. Indonesia also looks in better shape than Brazil, Turkey and South Africa: link.reuters.com/kuk34w (http://link.reuters.com/kuk34w) India and Indonesia had elections last year that led to reforms which investors hope will invigorate growth. But in Brazil incumbent Dilma Rousseff was re-elected, and with the government engulfed in a corruption probe, doubt remains whether she can push through fiscal consolidation. “Brazil has a kind of accumulation of everything that’s bad for investment – an ugly growth forecast, large twin deficits and high inflation,” said Patrick Mange, head of global emerging markets strategy for BNP Paribas Investment Partners. In Turkey, pressure from President Tayyip Erdogan on the central bank to cut interest rates has weighed down the lira. South Africa has been dogged by electricity shortages, labour unrest and a gaping current account deficit. The diverging fortunes have also hit foreign exchange reserves, as this graphic shows: link.reuters.com/vem34w (http://link.reuters.com/vem34w) India and Indonesia have managed to beef up their reserves, but Brazil, Turkey and South Africa have all seen declines as they try to prop up their currencies and their economies. (Reporting by Sujata Rao, graphics by Vincent Flasseur, writing by Karin Strohecker; Editing by Larry King) NERACA Jakarta – Anjloknya nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar AS, memberikan dampat terhadap performance kinerja emiten yang masih mengandalkan bahan baku impor dan salah satunya perusahaan farmasi. Dimana sebagian besar bahan bakunya masih impor, sehingga memberikan efek terhadap harga jual. PT Kimia Farma (Persero) Tbk (KAEF) mengakui, terkoreksinya nilai tukar rupiah cukup membebani perseroan karena 90% bahan baku diperoleh dari impor,” Sebagai perusahaan farmasi, perseroan masih mengandalkan bahan baku impor, dengan transaksi menggunakan mata uang dollar,”kata Direktur Riset dan Pengembangan Bisnis KAEF, M Wahyuli Syafari di Jakarta, kemarin. Meski demikian, dia mengatakan, perseroan masih belum merasakan dampak yang signifikan dari menguatnya dollar AS. Pasalnya, bahan baku produksi tersebut telah dibeli sejak tahun lalu,”Naiknya sampai Rp13.000 kan baru dalam dua minggu ini, sedangkan kita sudah beli bahan baku sejak November 2014, di mana dollar AS masih Rp12.500,” paparnya. Wahyuli menuturkan, dalam pembelian bahan baku farmasi memang telah direncanakan sejak jauh hari sebelum diproduksi. Harga yang telah sepakat dibeli saat November tahun lalu, tiba pada Januari dan Februari tahun ini,”Tapi kita akan memperhitungkan pembelian bahan baku untuk enam bulan ke depan. Tahun ini, kita menggunakan nilai tukar sesuai ketetapan pemerintah dalam APBN, yaitu Rp12.500/US$,” ujar dia http://www.neraca.co.id/bursa-saham/51627/KAEF-Mengklaim-Belum-Terpukul-Telak (http://www.neraca.co.id/bursa-saham/51627/KAEF-Mengklaim-Belum-Terpukul-Telak) Sumber : NERACA.CO.ID NERACA Jakarta – Perusahaan tekstil terintegrasi, PT Sri Rejeki Isman Tbk atau Sritex (SRIL) mencatatkan performance kinerja keuangan yang cukup positif sepanjang tahun 2014 lalu. Bahkan, kinerja perseroan dalam mata uang dollar Amerika Serikat juga ikut terkerek naik. Dalam siaran persnya di Jakarta, kemarin. Direktur Keuangan Sritex, Allan Moran Severino mengemukakan, pendapatan Sritex dalam mata uang dollar Amerika Serikat adalah sekitar 70% dari total pendapatan,”Tidak hanya pendapatan yang tumbuh positif, liabilitas perseroan yang juga mayoritas dalam mata uang Amerika Serikat juga meningkat dari kuartal pertama sampai kuartal keempat tahun 2014,”katanya. Selain itu, asset perseroan sebagian besar dalam mata uang Amerika Serikat juga ikut terkerek naik,”Sebagai eksportir, Sritex mendapat keuntungan dari pelemahan rupiah yang terjadi pada akhir akhir ini walaupun pencatatan sudah dalam mata uang Amerika Serikat,”ungkapnya. Kemudian, lanjut Allan, dengan adanya dukungan pemerintah terkait insentif pajak untuk eksportir yang minimal ekspornya 30% akan sangat mendukung kinerja SRIL. Asal tahu saja, saat ini eskpor SRIL telah menjangkau lebih dari 100 negara termasuk ekspor pakaian militer ke 30 negara didunia http://www.neraca.co.id/bursa-saham/51638/Sritex-Diuntungkan-Dari-Pelemahan-Rupiah (http://www.neraca.co.id/bursa-saham/51638/Sritex-Diuntungkan-Dari-Pelemahan-Rupiah) Sumber : NERACA.CO.ID JAKARTA kontan. Bisnis perbankan Indonesia masih dipandang legit oleh investor asing. Maklum, margin bunga bersih (NIM) bank Tanah Air terbilang tinggi di kawasan Asia. Tak heran, daya tarik perbankan lokal kali ini memikat hati empat investor asing sekaligus. Deputi Komisioner Bidang Pengawas Perbankan Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK) Irwan Lubis mengungkapkan, empat investor itu berasal dari Korea Selatan (Korsel), Taiwan dan Jepang. Mereka pun sudah menyatakan minatnya untuk mengakuisisi dua bank lokal. Dua di antara empat investor asing tersebut adalah China Construction Bank Corporation (CCB) dan Shinhan Bank. “CCB sudah menemukan satu Bank Umum Kelompok Usaha (BUKU) 1 untuk diakuisisi. Bank BUKU 1 ini termasuk dalam enam bank yang harus divestasi,” ujar Irwan, Kamis (13/3). Menurut dia, Shinhan dan CCB sebenarnya belum meminta izin akuisisi secara formal ke OJK. Sebab, mereka masih mencari satu bank lagi untuk diakuisisi. Ini terkait aturan OJK yang mewajibkan investor asing mengakuisisi minimal dua bank kecil sekaligus untuk mempercepat konsolidasi perbankan. Ada KCBA Selain Shinhan dan CCB, ada bank asal Taiwan dan Jepang yang bernafsu ekspansi di Indonesia. Irwan menuturkan, bank asal Taiwan tersebut telah membuka komunikasi dengan OJK terkait rencana akuisisi. Sedangkan bank asal Jepang berstatus kantor cabang bank asing (KCBA) yang telah beroperasi di Indonesia. Skemanya, KCBA asal Negeri Sakura ini berniat membeli satu bank berukuran kecil dalam rangka ekspansi usaha. Pasca akuisisi, KCBA dan bank lokal itu akan merger atau membentuk holding untuk memperkuat posisi bisnisnya. “Bank asal Jepang dan Taiwan masih penjajakan akuisisi. Baru komunikasi dengan OJK,” ucap Irwan. Serbuan sejumlah investor asing itu sejalan dengan kebijakan OJK. Irwan menyatakan, ada tiga faktor yang menjadi pertimbangan OJK dalam memberikan izin akuisisi bagi investor atau bank asing. Pertama, mendukung konsolidasi perbankan. Bank asing wajib mengakuisisi lebih dari satu bank BUKU 1 dengan modal inti Rp 100 miliar hingga Rp 1 triliun atau BUKU 2 dengan modal inti Rp 1 triliun sampai Rp 5 triliun. Bank hasil akuisisi ini kemudian wajib digabung (merger). Kedua, bank pendatang baru menyatakan minat untuk membiayai sektor prioritas yang ditetapkan pemerintah. Misalnya, kredit konstruksi. Ketiga, mengembangkan perbankan syariah. Ini merupakan upaya OJK untuk mendongkrak pangsa pasar syariah yang melambat meski ukurannya masih mini. Ketiga, OJK memperlonggar izin akuisisi karena telah menjalin kesepakatan resiprokal dengan sejumlah negara. Editor: Barratut Taqiyyah Metrotvnews.com, Jakarta: Gerak rupiah masih seperti permainan ular tangga yang belum mendapat kesempatan mendapat tangga untuk memperbaiki kinerja mata uang Garuda tersebut. Mengutip Bloomberg, pagi ini gerak rupiah terus melemah dibandingkan dengan penutupan perdagangan pada hari sebelumnya, yakni berada pada posisi Rp13.197 per USD atau turun 15 poin dari Rp13.182 per USD. Melihat kondisi yang semakin lemah tersebut, Ekonom Senior Didik J Rachbini mengungkapkan, hal ini karena pemerintah terlalu menyepelekan depresiasi mata uang rupiah. Ditambah, dengan defisit neraca perdagangan Indonesia yang tak kunjung baik meski sudah berganti kepala pemerintah sejak Oktober 2014 lalu. “Transaksi berjalan kita minus, ekspor barang kita enggak cukup untuk impor barang. Jadi ini pertama kalinya, setelah empat dekade itu neraca perdagangan defisit,” ujar Didik, usai hadiri diskusi Perkembangan Infrastruktur Indonesia dan Negara Berkembang, di Menara Kadin, Jalan HR Rasuna Said, Kuningan, Jakarta Selatan, Jumat (13/3/2015). Menurut dia, defisit neraca perdagangan terjadi karena Indonesia hanya mampu mengekspor bahan mentah atau raw material. Padahal jika diolah lebih lanjut, komoditas-komoditas yang dimiliki Indonesia dapat melejitkan gerak rupiah di hadapan mata uang negeri Paman Sam. “Kita hanya mampu ekspor bahan mentah seperti kakao, batu bara atau pun sawit. Itu turun harganya di pasar nasional. Karena itu kita harus mencoba mengatasi masalah ekspor ini,” harap dia. Didik menambahkan, minimnya kebijakan untuk melindungi industri dalam negeri menyebabkan produk impor membanjiri Tanah Air. Hal ini, sebut dia, membuat industri dalam negeri terguncang dan bahkan mati. “Kita harus ingatkan pemerintah supaya tidak main-main (terhadap pelemahan rupiah). Jangan dikira bahwa ini aman. Kita ini para ekonom tahu masalah strukturalnya. Secara sistematis, harus bisa diselesaikan, harus ada paket yang clear dari Pemerintah untuk mengatasi (pelemahan rupiah) ini,” pungkas Didik. AHL http://ekonomi.metrotvnews.com/read/2015/03/13/370769/cuma-bisa-ekspor-bahan-mentah-pantas-rupiah-terpuruk Sumber : METROTVNEWS.COM JAKARTA – Direktur Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) Enny Sri Hartati memperkirakan laju defisit transaksi berjalan pada kuartal I (Q-I) 2015 belum membaik. Sebab, deapresiasi rupiah belum mendorong ekspor secara signifikan. Enny Sri Hartati di Jakarta, Senin (9/3) juga berpendapat defisit masih tertekan karena laju impor barang modal akibat ekspansi belanja pemerntah yang sudah digencarkan pada kuartal I. “Ekspor mungkin bisa naik, tapi impor barang modal juga sudah mulai berjalan. Ditambah belum ada stimulus buat peningkatan ekspor,” katanya. Dia memperkirakan defisit transaksi berjalan masih mendekati angka defisit pada kuartal IV 2014 sebesar 2,81 persen dari Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB). Menurut Enny, pemerintah kurang bergerak cepat dalam memanfaatkan depresiasi rupiah untuk menggenjot ekspor. Hal itu, kata dia, terlihat dari tidak adanya stimulus seperti insentif yang diberikan pemerintah kepada dunia usaha. Selain itu, kegiatan ekspor juga masih terganggu dengan masih rendahnya harga komoditas dunia dan pelambatan ekonomi negara-negara mitra dagang seperti Tiongkok. “Penurunan harga komoditas juga terus menganggu ekspor kita,” ujarnya. Sementara, kata Enny, pemerintah terus menggencarkan lelang proyek infrastruktur yang akan diikuti dengan peningkatan impor barang modal. “Kita lihat tren saja, di awal tahun biasanya impor barang modal naik, setelah pemerintah membuat perencanaan,” kata dia. Enny menuturkan pemerintah juga belum terlihat mengembangkan industri substitusi impor. Akibatnya, saat pemerintah dan swasta gencar melakukan pembangunan seperti saat ini, laju impor juga ikut naik. “Selain itu, industri manufaktur juga belum terlihat bergerak, padahal ekspor diandalkan dari situ,” ujarnya. Sebelumnya, Bank Indonesia memperkirakan defisit neraca transaksi berjalan masih berada di level 3 persen terhadap PDB pada 2015. Namun, defisit pada 2015 ini diyakini BI akan digunakan untuk pembiayaan-pembiayaan sektor produktif. (ID/ant/ths) JAKARTA kontan. Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia masih rawan koreksi tahun ini. Penyebabnya adalah ketidakpastian baru di tingkat global yang bisa menghambat laju ekonomi nasional. Pemerintah wajib memiliki strategi baru agar Indonesia bisa bertumbuh. Hasil analisa ekonom Bank Central Asia (BCA) menyebut ada empat faktor yang menyebabkan ketidakpastian baru. Pertama, penguatan nilai dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) yang terlalu tajam. Sejak Mei tahun lalu, indeks dollar AS terus menguat. Indeks dollar AS mencapai titik terendah pada 6 Mei 2014 di level 79,093, tapi sejak saat itu terus menanjak dan mencapai titik tertinggi pada 3 Maret 2015 sebesar 95,383. Memang fundamental ekonomi makro AS sudah solid. Namun, rencana kenaikan suku bunga Federal Reserve (The Fed) bisa mengganggu perekonomian AS. Jika bunga The Fed naik terlalu cepat, ekonomi AS bisa terpukul. Masalahnya, Indonesia terlanjur berharap AS sebagai pendorong utama ekspor. Negara tujuan ekspor utama seperti China mengalami pelambatan ekonomi, sedangkan Jepang dan Eropa menghadapi resesi. “AS adalah mesin tunggal, jika dia ikut melambat akibat kebijakan The Fed, ekspor Indonesia semakin tertekan,” terang David Sumual, Kepala Ekonom BCA.. Faktor kedua, bank sentral Eropa, Jepang, dan China ramai-ramai mengeluarkan stimulus moneter. Kebijakan ini berpotensi meningkatkan aliran dana ke emerging market seperti Indonesia. Namun, bagi tiga negara itu, stimulus moneter adalah usaha memperlemah nilai tukar agar ekspor mereka naik. Cara tersebut juga merupakan perang mata uang yang akan dimenangkan oleh negara maju seperti Eropa, Jepang dan China. Mengingat, bank sentral negara maju memiliki kemampuan lebih besar, dari sisi aset. Negara berkembang hanya akan menjadi penonton dan nilai tukar mata uangnya akan terombang-ambing. Bersamaan itu, ada faktor ketiga, yakni harga komoditas alam masih dalam tren melemah. Padahal, crude palm oil dan batubara merupakan andalan ekspor Indonesia. Dengan demikian, saat kurs rupiah melemah, kinerja ekspor bakal sulit tertolong. Krisis finansial Keempat, ancaman Yunani keluar dari Eurozone dan default atas utang-utangnya. Jika ini terjadi, akan mendorong negara-negara lain di Eurozone seperti Spanyol mengikuti langkah serupa. Imbasnya, krisis finansial dari Eropa bisa kembali terjadi. Jika ini terjadi, efek terbesarnya adalah krisis finansial di AS, karena valuasi aset sekarang sudah jauh menyimpang dari fundamentalnya. Volatilitas di pasar finansial AS juga cenderung meningkat. Kondisi ini bisa mengulang bubble properti tahun 2008. Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian, Sofyan Djalil, bilang, di tengah ketidakpastian baru masih ada potensi untuk mendongkrak ekonomi. Salah satunya, saat banjir likuiditas di Eropa, Jepang dan China, pemerintah mendorongnya menjadi kegiatan penanaman modal di Indonesia. Untuk mendorong investasi, pemerintah akan fokus memperbaiki fundamental. Pembangunan infrastruktur diperbanyak. Hambatan investasi juga dipangkas dengan kemudahan perizinan. Editor: Yudho Winarto JAKARTA. AIA Financial mengumumkan hasil survei kelompok usahanya di enam negara ASEAN. Dari hasil survei itu, masyarakat kelas menengah Indonesia memiliki Middle Class Index (MCI) tertinggi di kawasan ini. Angka MCI di Indonesia mencapai 77,1. Indonesia dikuntit Vietnam dan Filipina masing-masing sebesar 70,9, dan 70,6. Sementara tiga negara di Asia Tenggara lainnya yaitu Singapura, Malaysia, dan Thailand mencetak skor 55,6 kemudian 60,5, dan 63,3. Hal tersebut menunjukan, masyarakat kelas menengah di dalam negeri menjadi paling optimis soal masa depan mereka, termasuk soal kondisi finansial. “Juga optimistis kehidupan mereka akan meningkat dalam 12 bulan ke depan dengan indeks sebesar 87%,” kata Presiden Direktur AIA, Ben Ng melalui keterangan tertulis, Jumat (27/2). Di Indonesia, survei dilakukan terhadap 500 responden tentang bagaimana kelas menengah yang tengah berkembang pesat menyikapi empat hal utama, yakni kualitas hidup, keamanan finansial, pensiun, serta keluarga dan pendidikan. Sementara itu, 80% dari kelas menengah di dalam negeri merasa aman secara finansial, lebih tinggi dari negara ASEAN lainnya yang rata-rata sebesar 61%. Mereka beranggapan bahwa dibutuhkan dana sedikitnya Rp 1,62 miliar untuk mencapai keamanan finansial sampai sisa hidup mereka dan sedikitnya Rp 3,75 miliar untuk masuk kategori orang kaya. Sedangkan untuk masa tua, sekitar 69% masyarakat kelas menengah memilih tabungan dana pensiun ketimbang berinvestasi di instrumen lain seperti properti dan tabungan biasa. Menurut Ben, hasil survey ini bakal memperkaya pemahaman tentang kelas menengah di kawasan Asia sebaga bahan untuk dapat memenuhi kebutuhan mereka. Khusus kondisi di Indonesia yang masyarakat kelas menengahnya punya keyakinan yang positif, AIA bakal meningkatkan ketersediaan perencana finansial yang tepat melalui agen dan Bancassurance Consultant premier. “Kami menyediakan berbagai produk yang kami rancang khusus untuk memenuhi kebutuhan tabungan dan proteksi jangka panjang masyarakat kelas menengah,” ujarnya. http://keuangan.kontan.co.id/news/aia-kelas-menengah-indonesia-paling-optimis (http://keuangan.kontan.co.id/news/aia-kelas-menengah-indonesia-paling-optimis) Sumber : KONTAN.CO.ID BEIJING. Kejutan datang dari produsen mobil terbesar asal Amerika Serikat di Indonesia. General Motors (GM) mengumumkan untuk segera menghentikan kegiatan produksinya di Pabrik Bekasi, Jawa Barat, akhir Juni 2015. Prinsipal otomotif terbesar kedua di dunia ini memilih untuk menjadi distributor (importir) kendaraan jadi, ketimbang harus mengelola pabrik di Indonesia. Artinya, proses pemasaran produkproduk andalan Chevrolet, seperti Orlando, Captiva, dan Trailblazer, berubah. “Transformasi ini lebih pada hal finansial, bukan menyangkut masalah kualitas produk yang sudah ada,” ujar Tim Zimmerman, Presiden GM Asia Tenggara dalam keterangan resminya di Beijing, Tiongkok, Kamis (26/2). Stefan Jacoby, Wakil Presiden Eksekutif GM dan Presiden GM International, menambahkan, transformasi dilakukan agar lebih berorientasi pada pasar. Keputusan ini diambil karena biaya bahan baku yang tinggi dan semakin berkurangnya potensi memanfaatkan pasokan komponen lokal karena skala produksi Spin yang semakin kecil. “Transformasi ini akan semakin memperkuat struktur bisnis dan jaringan pemasaran dengan fokus pada pengembangan merek Chevrolet serta menghadirkan produk-produk berkualitas tinggi yang kompetitif untuk memenuhi kebutuhan pelanggan di Indonesia.” Pabrik GM mulai beroperasi pada 1995, kemudian sempat mati suri pada 2005. Pabrik kembali beroperasi lagi mulai Mei 2013, dan hanya bertahan sampai Juni 2015. (Agung Kurniawan) http://industri.kontan.co.id/news/general-motors-akan-tutup-pabrik-di-bekasi (http://industri.kontan.co.id/news/general-motors-akan-tutup-pabrik-di-bekasi) Sumber : KONTAN.CO.ID Bisnis.com, JAKARTA-Perusahaan asal negara Singapura, Thailand, dan China berminat untuk menangkap peluang bisnis di Indonesia, seiring meningkatnya pertumbuhan kelas menengah. Hal ini berdasarkan hasil survei yang dilakukan oleh United Overseas Bank (UOB) dalam survei yang berjudul UOB’s Asian Enterprise Survey 2014. Sebanyak 90 juta jiwa atau 40% dari jumlah total populasi Indonesia dikategorikan sebagai kelas menengah dan hal ini mendasari ketertarikan perusahaan-perusahaan dari Singapura (26%), Thailand (25%) dan China (21%) untuk ekspansi ke Indonesia. Iwan Satawidinata, Deputy Chief Executive Officer of Business, PT Bank UOB Indonesia, mengatakan dengan meningkatnya pendapatan di sektor kelas menengah, mengakibatkan peningkatan daya beli, mengubah pola konsumsi dan meningkatkan minat belanja masyarakat. Hal ini menciptakan peluang bagi perusahaan-perusahaan di Asia untuk berekspansi ke Indonesia. “Seiring dengan peningkatan pendapatan dan urbanisasi, perusahaan yang mampu menawarkan produk dan layanan sesuai dengan kebutuhan kelas menengah Indonesia akan mendapatkan posisi yang baik untuk pertumbuhan bisnisnya. Perusahaan-perusahaan yang mampu menangkap peluang bisnis yang tersedia di Indonesia dapat membantu kelanjutan pertumbuhan mereka” ujar Iwan Satawidinata dalam rilis yang diterima Bisnis.com. Pertumbuhan ekonomi domestik Indonesia yang didukung oleh kenaikan tingkat pendapatan dan kondisi ekonomi yang membaik, perusahaan-perusahaan di Asia tertarik untuk berpartisipasi dalam membangun infrastruktur di Indonesia. Ho Woei Chen, Senior Economist, UOB Group mengatakan bahwa lonjakan pembangunan infrastruktur di Indonesia diamati dengan seksama oleh berbagai negara di kawasan regional Asia. Berdasarkan UOB Asian Enterprise Survey 2014, perusahaan konstruksi dari Malaysia (50%), Singapura (40%), Thailand (33%) dan Hong Kong (33%) sangat optimis akan rencana pembangunan infrastruktur di Indonesia. “Pengeluaran di jasa konstruksi untuk memenuhi kebutuhan infrastruktur Indonesia membuka peluang investasi dan bisnis bagi jenis usaha lainnya seperti logistik, makanan dan minuman serta perhotelan. Untuk mendorong lebih banyak investasi asing langsung, badan penanaman modal Indonesia bekerjasama dengan semua kementerian untuk mengurangi proses birokrasi dan meningkatkan profil Indonesia sebagai lokasi tujuan investasi yang atraktif,” ujar Ho Woei Chen. UOB Asian Enterprise Survey 2014 juga menunjukkan bahwa perusahaan yang bergerak di bidang pertambangan minyak dan gas (42%), makanan dan minuman (33%), perhotelan (32%), konstruksi dan manufaktur (28%) melihat ekspansi di Indonesia sebagai bagian dari strategi mereka mengembangkan bisnisnya. (Bloomberg) — Indonesian President Joko Widodo says Southeast Asia’s biggest economy can achieve the official growth target of 5.7 percent this year. That could be a taller order than he anticipates. Widodo, who took office in October, inherited an economy fettered by years of under-investment in infrastructure, plunging commodity prices and the withdrawal of U.S. monetary stimulus. The central bank has kept monetary policy tight to protect a vulnerable rupiah and gross domestic product probably grew 4.9 percent last quarter from a year earlier, the slowest pace since 2009, according to a Bloomberg survey. The president, known as Jokowi, is promising to rev things up by fast-tracking large road, port and power projects and cutting red tape. He’s seeking to woo investment and boost noncommodity exports, targeting an expansion of as much as 6.3 percent to 6.9 percent next year. “We are confident to have the target of our economic growth” of 5.7 percent this year, the president said in a Feb. 2 interview in Jakarta. “But we must increase our exports volume and we must reform our bureaucracy. We must invite FDI.” Yet the World Bank sees Indonesia growing 5.2 percent this year and 5.5 percent in 2016. The economy probably expanded 5.06 percent in 2014, according to a Bloomberg survey ahead of data due Feb. 5 in Jakarta. Here are five things that could stand in the way of Indonesia’s growth goal for this year.

Commodity Prices The prices of Indonesia’s key commodity exports may not recover anytime soon. Coal has fallen further this year and has now more than halved in price since the end of 2010. Palm oil capped the biggest January decline since 2010 as demand weakens amid a supply glut, after slumping 16 percent in the past year. While the plummeting price of crude presented Jokowi with an opportunity to scrap gasoline subsidies, it will also sap government revenue. The state will lose about 158.8 trillion ($13 billion) of revenue because of the drop in oil prices, according to a Nomura Holdings Inc. research note last week by economists including Euben Paracuelles in Singapore. That negates much of the 230 trillion rupiah of budget funds freed up by the fuel subsidy overhaul.

Sticky Deficit Indonesia was dubbed one of the fragile five emerging-market economies by Morgan Stanley in 2013 because its large external deficit made it vulnerable to capital outflows. While the shortfall in the current account has narrowed from a record 4.4 percent of gross domestic product in the second quarter of that year, Bank Indonesia is forecasting a deficit of 3 percent to 3.5 percent of GDP this year, compared with an estimate for about 3 percent in 2014. The big infrastructure projects being promised by Jokowi could spur imports, putting pressure on the balance, according to Ndiame Diop, the World Bank’s lead economist for Indonesia. This persistent deficit makes it more difficult for Bank Indonesia to follow global peers in cutting borrowing costs to bolster economic growth. Standard Chartered Plc said most of its Indonesian clients see the central bank holding or increasing its policy rate in 2015, according to a note released Feb. 3.

Implementation Risks The stand-off between Indonesia’s police force and its anti-corruption agency, the KPK, has dominated local media in recent weeks. A failure by the president to show strong leadership could undermine his credibility for pushing ahead with economic reforms and cracking down on graft. “There could be a rippling effect,” the World Bank’s Diop says. He also points out that about 50 percent of the central government budget is actually managed by sub-national governments, raising the possibility that the implementation of infrastructure and social spending will be slower than expected because of the difficulty in transmitting policy from the top.

Global Risk The global economy is unlikely to provide much support to Indonesia this year, with weaknesses in Japan, Europe and China, Indonesia’s largest export market. Meanwhile, a recovery in the U.S. is forecast to prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, reducing the appeal of higher-yielding assets in emerging markets like Indonesia. “This is going to be a very tough year externally,” Mari Pangestu, a former Indonesian trade minister, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Wednesday. A strengthening U.S. economy and slowing growth in China is a “bad combination” for Indonesia as commodity prices will probably keep falling, said Benedict Bingham, the International Monetary Fund’s senior resident representative in Jakarta.

Time Lag The economic overhaul being promised by Jokowi could take time to benefit the economy. Large infrastructure projects may take a while and the goal of lifting non-commodity exports is dependent on increasing the supply of skilled labor. “Whether we can actually roll out the infrastructure projects fast enough is really the big question mark,” said Pangestu. “The concern is about implementation.” The government also needs to review its trade and labor policies, which look more defensive rather than focused on winning global market share, according to Bingham. “2015 needs to be seen as a year in which the foundations for the medium-term strategy are set,” he said. “It’s not going to be a year where the pay-off from this strategy is going to become immediately apparent.” NERACA Jakarta – Bank Indonesia akhirnya menurunkan suku bunga acuannya atau BI Rate sebesar 25 basis poin (bps) menjadi 7,5% dari sebelumnya 7,75%. Ini sinyal positif bagi perekonomian Indonesia yang tengah gencar-gencarnya membangun infrastruktur. Dengan begitu, industri perbankan juga harus merespon dengan ikut menurunkan suku bunga simpanan dan suku bunga kredit. Deputi Gubernur Senior Bank Indonesia, Mirza Adityaswara mengatakan, penurunan BI Rate artinya akan ada tambahan likuiditas di pasar keuangan. Oleh karena itu, bunga di Pasar Uang Antar Bank (PUAB) juga ikut turun. “Logikanya memang begitu (suku bunga perbankan harus turun). Jadi bank akan menurunkan suku bunga deposito yang diikuti dengan turunnya bunga kredit,” kata Mirza di Jakarta, Selasa (17/2). Dia melanjutkan bahwa tahun ini Bank Indonesia memperkirakan pertumbuhan kredit di kisaran 14%-15%. Mengenai kekhawatiran ‘kaburnya’ dana asing, Mirza memastikan hal itu tidak akan terjadi. Justru dirinya meyakini semakin banyak arus modal asing yang masuk ke dalam negeri http://www.neraca.co.id/bisnis-indonesia/50788/BI-Rate-Turun-Sinyal-Positif-Bagi-Sektor-Riil (http://www.neraca.co.id/bisnis-indonesia/50788/BI-Rate-Turun-Sinyal-Positif-Bagi-SektorRiil) Sumber : NERACA.CO.ID Kontribusi dari komponen konsumsi pemerintah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi akan meningkat. Dwitya Putra infobank Jakarta–Pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional pada tahun ini akan memasuki era peningkatan konsumsi pemerintah di tengah beratnya ancaman dari eksternal. Pengamat Ekonomi Yanuar Rizki menilai, faktor belanja pemerintah tahun ini akan mendominasi laju pertumbuhan ekonomi. “Kita akan memasuki ke era belanja pemerintah,” kata Yanuar, di Jakarta, akhir pekan lalu. Menurutnya, kontribusi dari komponen konsumsi pemerintah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi akan meningkat signifikan dibanding sumbangan dari konsumsi masyarakat dan investasi nonpemerintah. Sementara tantangan global masih akan memberatkan kondisi perekonomian di dalam negeri. “2015 akan berat. Kita akan menghadapi rupiah yang melemah dan bunga The Fed naik. Dan, yang utama, bank akan berebut likuiditas,” tegasnya. Namun, lanjutnya, dana-dana di dalam negeri tidak akan signifikan pergi ke luar. Pasalnya, upaya mencari dana save haven lebih lebih banyak sebatas konversi dari rupiah ke dolar AS. “Jadi, uang masih akan tetap ada di Indonesia,” jelas Yanuar. Ia menambahkan, tingginya konsumsi pemerintah pada 2015 diharapkan bisa berbarengan dengan upaya mensinergikan program kerja BUMN. Selain itu, dana belanja pemerintah diharapkan juga bisa menjadi stimulus fiskal yang efektif mendorong perekonomian. “Perbankan swasta juga akan mengejar likuiditas ini, bahkan antar-BUMN akan saling berebut,” ujarnya. (*) @dwitya_putra14 Jakarta detik -Pemerintah menargetkan pertumbuhan ekonomi tahun ini 5,7% atau lebih tinggi dari tahun 2014 yang hanya 5,02%. Tanda-tandanya sudah mulai terlihat. Ekonom Universitas Gajah Mada sekaligus Komisaris Independen Permata Bank, Tony Prasetiantono mengatakan, tanda-tanda ekonomi Indonesia akan tumbuh lebih tinggi dibanding tahun sebelumnya sudah mulai terlihat. “Pertama, IHSG yang terus menguat, sempat mencapai 5.356, itu tandanya asing masih minati Indonesia,capital inflow banyak yang masuk,” ujar Tony di Ritz Carlton, Pacific Place, Senin (16/2/2015). Tony mengatakan, indikator lainnya yang menjadi motor pemacu pertumbuhan ekonomi tahun ini, seperti ruang fiskal yang begitu lebar, dan dana alokasi infrastruktur yang cukup banyak mencapai Rp 282 triliun. “Itu belum termasuk penyertaan modal negara (PMN) untuk BUMN yang jumlahnya cukup besar Rp 64,8 triliun,” ungkap Tony. Indikator motor penggerak ekonomi Indonesia lainnya kata Tony, angka inflasi pada Januari terjadi deflari 0,24%. “Padahal Januari biasanya inflasi, karena hujan, banjir yang mengganggu arus distribusi barang, tapi justru Januari deflasi. Kemungkinan inflasi bisa tercapai sesuai target pemerintah hanya 5%,” katanya. Melihat indikator pertumbuhan ekonomi tersebut, Ia yakin, investor tetap memilih Indonesia satu dari tiga negara di dunia sebagai tujuan investasi. “Tiongkok menjadi salah satu primadona investor asing, tapi mereka diminta untuk mengerem pertumbuhan ekonominya oleh Bank Dunia karena masalah polusi, ini bisa jadi peluang bagi Indonesia dalam menarik investasi asing,” tutup Tony. (rrd/ang) Jakarta -Tujuh menteri dalam Kabinet Kerja pimpinan Joko Widodo (Jokowi) rapat di DPR dini hari ini. Untuk mengejar tenggat waktu pembahasan Rancangan APBN Perubahan (RAPBN-P) 2015. Rapat dengan Badan Anggaran (Banggar) DPR (http://finance.detik.com/read/2015/02/13/020504/2831837/4/7-menteri-jokowi-rapat-dini-hari-bahas-anggaran-di-dpr?f9911013)itu menyepakati nilai belanja RAPBN-P 2015 adalah Rp 1.984,1 triliun. Semua fraksi menyetujui hasil ini. Lewat hasil ini, berarti APBN pertama di pemerintahan Joko Widodo (Jokowi) batal menembus Rp 2.000 triliun. Karena sebelumnya dalam APBN 2015 yang diajukan pemerintah SBY, nilai belanja mencapai Rp 2.039,48 triliun. Berikut asumsi makro RAPBN-P 2015: Pertumbuhan ekonomi 5,7% Inflasi 5% Suku bunga Surat Perbendaharaan Negara (SPN) 3 bulan 6,2% Nilai tukar rupiah Rp 12.500/US$ Harga minyak Indonesia (ICP) US$ 60 per barel Lifting minyak 825 ribu barel per hari Lifting gas 1,22 juta barel setara minyak per hari “Penerimaan negara ditargetkan Rp 1.761,6 triliun. Berarti ada defisit Rp 222,5 triliun atau 1,9% dari PDB,” kata Anggota Banggar DjJoko Ujiyanto, dalam rapat dengan 7 menteri di Gedung DPR, Jakarta, Jumat (13/2/2015) dini hari. Penerimaan negara dari perpajakan non migas ditargetkan Rp 1.439,7 triliun. Dengan tax ratio 13,69%. Sementara target penerimaan negara bukan pajak (PNBP) minerba ditargetkan Rp 52,2 triliun, PNBP kehutanan Rp 4,7 triliun, PNBP perikanan Rp 578,8 miliar, PNBP Kemenhumham Rp 4,26 triliun. Lalu ada dividen BUMN yang ditargetkan Rp 36,9 triliun. Untuk subsidi energi, yang dialokasikan adalah untuk elpiji Rp 64,6 triliun dan listrik Rp 73 triliun. Suntikan modal atau penyertaan modal negara (PMN) untuk BUMN ditetapkan Rp 64,8 triliun. Jadi untuk alokasi belanja negara, Rp 1.319,5 triliun untuk pemerintah pusat, dan Rp 664,6 triliun dialokasikan untuk daerah. (dnl/dnl) JAKARTA – Pemerintah akan memangkas Bantuan sosial (bansos) menjadi empat bulan dari sebelumnya enam bulan. Anggaran ini akan mulai diberlakukan pada dari Januari 2015.”Setelah dibahas di Sidkab dan pimpinan sepakat dikurangi cukup empat bulan saja,” kata Dirjen Anggaran Kementerian Keuangan Askolani di Gedung DPR, semalam Askolani menambahkan, pengurangan tersebut dapat dianggarkan untuk belanja yang lainnya. Sehingga, tidak sepenuhnya untuk perlindungan sosial yang telah direncanakan. “Jadi dua bulan lainnya kurangi sampai April, makanya bisa digunakan untuk belanja yang lain,” kata dia. Menurutnya, pemerintah dan DPR sepakat jika bantuan sosial selama empat bulan sudah cukup efektif, sehingga dilakukan pemangkasan. “Kita nilai mungkin empat bulan sudah cukup efektiflah,” ujar Askolani Dia melanjutkan, anjloknya harga minyak menjadi salah satu alasan pemerintah memangkas bansos yang semula akan diberikan selama enam bulan tersebut. “Sekarang kan minyak rendah, jadi sebenarnya kita tidak perlu full enam bulan,” kata dia. Menurutnya, dengan turunnya harga minyak maka inflasi juga mengalami penurunan. Sehingga dalam waktu empat bulan dirasa cukup untuk memberikan bantuan sosial kepada masyarakat. “Kebetulan kita terbantu oleh harga minyak, jadi inflasi juga turun. Kita sudah combine itu,” ungkap dia. http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/02/10/20/1103686/pemerintah-pangkas-dana-bansos-karena-harga-minyak-turun (http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/02/10/20/1103686/pemerintah-pangkas-dana-bansos-karena-harga-minyak-turun) Sumber : OKEZONE.COM Announcement:

Moody’s: Indonesian outlook stable, incorporates slower growth, external uncertainty and reform policies Global Credit Research – 06 Feb 2015

Singapore, February 06, 2015 — Moody’s Investors Service says that its stable 2015 outlook for Indonesia’s sovereign, banks and corporates incorporates moderating GDP growth, lower commodity prices and government policies to improve the investment climate. “Narrow fiscal deficits, low government debt ratios, and a large economy with healthy GDP prospects all support Indonesia’s Baa3 sovereign rating,” said Atsi Sheth, a Moody’s Senior Vice President in the Sovereign Group. Moody’s expects GDP growth of 5% in 2015, and notes that this could accelerate in the coming years if government efforts to improve the investment climate are successful, even as prices weaken for Indonesia’s key commodity exports and despite potential global volatility in the coming year. Recent credit positive policies include fuel subsidy reforms, said Sheth, noting that in 2014 these subsidies were about 2.4% of GDP, and were a significant contributor to Indonesia’s estimated fiscal deficit of 2.5% of GDP. Subsidy reforms will lower government expenditures, reduce macroeconomic distortions and redirect government resources toward infrastructure development, says Moody’s. In addition, Moody’s expects measures to simplify and accelerate the process of obtaining investment approvals to support private sector investments, and boost growth. “Our outlook for Indonesian non-financial corporates is stable, as they benefit from modest growth prospects and good liquidity. However, China’s slowing demand for commodities will further pressure Indonesia’s natural resource sectors, in particular coal miners,” said Brian Grieser, a Moody’s Senior Analyst in the Corporate Group. “In addition, the weak rupiah is manageable for most companies but risks remain for issuers with a currency mismatch,” said Grieser. Credit growth for Indonesian banks has moderated in line with economic growth and tight liquidity conditions, said Moody’s Senior Analyst Alka Anbarasu from the Financial Institutions Group, but government spending on infrastructure projects will boost growth in the coming year. “In addition, the banks’ asset quality may deteriorate on account of slowing economic growth, but their strong loss-absorbing buffers as reflected in their high Tier 1 and loan-loss coverage ratios are adequate to withstand this deterioration,” said Anbarasu. Moody’s outlook for Indonesian banks is stable. Moody’s views were presented at Moody’s 2015 Outlook for the Indonesian sovereign, banking and corporates held today in Jakarta. As part of this 2015 outlook series, Moody’s hosted a briefing on Malaysian sovereign, banking and corporates held on 4 February in Kuala Lumpur, and on Asia Pacific banks, sovereigns, and corporates in Hong Kong and Singapore in January. In addition, there will be briefings later in February in Australia on its banking, infrastructure and corporate sectors, and in Japan on the insurance sector. Moody’s 2015 global outlooks present its award-winning insight into upcoming credit trends for sovereigns, sub-sovereigns, corporate finance, structured finance, and financial institutions. To learn more, visit http://www.moodys.com/2015outlooks (http://www.moodys.com/2015outlooks) Jakarta, Feb 5, 2015 (AFP) Indonesia’s economy grew 5.01 percent in 2014, the slowest rate of expansion for five years, the official statistics agency said on Thursday. The figure compares with 5.78 percent in 2013 and is the weakest rate since 2009, at the height of the global financial crisis. Southeast Asia’s biggest economy has been slowing in recent years as the price of its key commodity exports drop owing to weakening demand from regional powerhouse China and other major markets. Exports remained subdued in 2014, while political uncertainty also slowed foreign investment as firms waited to see who won the country’s presidential election. However, the victory of reformist and former businessman, Joko Widodo, in the presidential elections has raised hopes that the economy’s fortunes will pick up in 2015. JAKARTA – World Bank baru saja merilis ranking negara-negara yang ramah terhadap para investor. Salah satu hasil yang mencengangkan adalahSingapura (http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/01/28/320/1098395/singapura-negara-paling-ramah-investor) berhasil menduduki jawara pertama dalam daftar ini. Lantas, di mana posisi Indonesia? Dari laporan World Bank yang bertajuk “Doing Business 2015”, Rabu (28/1/2015), ada beberapa poin yang menjadi indikator penilaian yang dikeluarkan oleh World Bank. Poin tersebut, di antaranya kemudahan perizinan konstruksi, ketersediaan energi listrik, dan kemudahan dalam kepemilikan properti. Selain itu juga ada kemudahan dalam pembangunan usaha, perlindungan terhadap pemegang saham, dan tarif pajak yang wajar. Dalam penilaiannya, World Bank mengacu pada sebuah istilah yang disebut dengan skor DTF. Dalam daftar yang dirilis World Bank tersebut, Indonesia berada di ranking 114 dengan skor DTF 59,15. Dengan posisi ini, Indonesia patut bangga karena pada tahun 2013 lalu Indonesia harus cukup puas berada di ranking 120. Artinya, tahun ini Indonesia berhasil naik enam peringkat dibandingkan tahun lalu. Posisi Indonesia itu juga berada di bawah negara-negara yang selama ini kurang terkenal sebagai tujuan investasi, seperti halnya Papua Nugini, Trinidad Tobago, dan negara-negara yang perekonomiannya jauh di bawah Indonesia. Hal ini menandakan, betapa masih banyak pekerjaan rumah yang harus diselesaikan agar ke depan Indonesia bisa lebih ramah bagi investor. (http://economy.okezone.com/read/2014/11/12/20/1064501/menkeu-minta-prosedur-investasi-dipermudah) Di dalamnya termasuk persoalan infrastruktur, kelistrikan, kepastian harga BBM dan upah buruh yang belakangan makin runyam (wdi) JAKARTA okezone – Badan Koordinator Penanaman Modal (BKPM) mencatat untuk pertama kalinya negara China masuk dalam lima besar investor di Indonesia. Realisasi triwulan IV2014 China berhasil menduduki peringkat ke-4 dengan nilai investasi USD500 juta.”Untuk pertama kalinya muncul Tiongkok dalam lima besar di triwulan ini,” kata Deputi Bidang Pengendalian Pelaksanaan Penanaman Modal BKPM Azhar Lubis saat konferensi pers di kantornya, Jakarta, Rabu (28/1/2015).Azhar menjelaskan, hal tersebut dikarenakan China sedang melakukan proyek besar pada akhir 2014. Sehingga, nilai investasi yang disumbangkan juga cukup besar.”Ini menarik karena beberapa proyek China sudah terealisasi dan cukup besar. Satu semen di Kalimantan Selatan, satu listrik di daerah Sumatera,” kata Azhar.Menurut Azhar, nantinya diharapkan investor China semakin lama akan semakin tinggi. Terlebih lagi, diperkirakan China akan melakukan investasi lagi di daerah Sulawesi.”Di Sulawesi juga nanti banyak investor China. Kita mengharapkan investor China semakin lama semakin tinggi,” kata dia. (mrt)

Minggu, 25 Januari 2015 | 07:45 WIB

Outlook 2015

Ekonomi Indonesia Seperti China 15 Tahun Lalu Oleh : Ahmad Munjin | Jumat, 26 Desember 2014 | 14:06 WIB INILAHCOM, Jakarta – Jika pemerintah berhasil menyederhanakan birokrasi, ekonomi Indonesia 2015 akan sama seperti China lima belas tahun silam. Saat itu, banyak investor asing bangun pabrik.

David Sutyanto, analis First Asia Capital mengatakan, kebijakan bank sentral AS, The Fed, berpotensi menyebabkan keluarnya hot money dari pasar modal Indonesia yang telah terakumulasi selama beberapa tahun terakhir. “Jika Bank Indonesia menaikkan BI Rate dalam rangka antisipasi kenaikan suku bunga The Fed, dapat dipastikan pertumbuhan ekonomi tidak akan berjalan dengan maksimal,” kata David dalam risetnya yang diterima INILAHCOM di Jakarta, Jumat (26/12/2014). Kenaikan harga Bahan Bakar Minyak (BBM) bersubsidi yang terjadi pada penghujung tahun 2014 membuat inflasi kembali meningkat. “Akan tetapi, kami yakin dengan langkah pengendalian inflasi yang tepat, inflasi tahun 2015 tidak akan menembus level 9%,” ujarnya. Atas dasar itu, menurut David, masyarakat tidak akan kehilangan daya beli dalam jumlah besar. “Tapi, tekanan akan nilai tukar rupiah juga akan berlanjut di tahun depan,” ungkap dia. Oleh karen itu, David, memprediksi BI Rate pada tahun 2015 masih tetap akan di level 7,75% hingga 8,5%. Sementara itu, real investment 2015 akan marak terjadi apabila pemerintah berhasil menyederhanakan birokrasi. Kondisi Indonesia saat ini sama seperti kondisi China 15 tahun yang lalu pada saat mereka berhasil menyederhanakan birokrasi. Akibatnya, banyak perusahaan asing yang membuka pabriknya. “Oleh karena itu kami menargetkan pertumbuhan ekonomi pada tahun 2015 dapat mencapai level 5,4%. Hal ini sejalan dengan forecast yang dikeluarkan International Monetary Fund (IMF) pada World Economic Outlook Oktober 2014,” imbuhnya. [jin] JAKARTA – Menteri Keuangan Bambang Brodjonegoro melakukan pertemuan tahunan ke lima dengan Gubernur Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) Hiroshi Watanabe.Pertemuan yang dilakukan di Gedung Kementerian Keuangan ini turut dihadiri oleh perwakilan berbagai Kementerian dan Lembaga terkait seperti perwakilan dari Badan Perencanaan Nasional (Bappenas), Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM), Kementerian Perhubungan dan SKK Migas. Pertemuan ini merupakan tindak lanjut dari pertemuan tahunan ke empat yang dilaksanakan pada bulan September 2013 serta Mid-term Review pada bulan Juli 2014. Kedua belah pihak berdiskusi dengan menitikberatkan pembahasan pada pengembangan infrastruktur. Sesuai dengan komitmen kedua belah pihak untuk mendukung perkembangan proyek di sektor infrastruktur dalam pertemuan kali ini pihak JBIC dan Pemerintah Indonesia melanjutkan diskusi di sektor tersebut dengan topik Infrastruktur dalam Bidang Energi, Infrastruktur dalam Bidang Transportasi dan strategi dalam kerjasama lingkungan. Selain itu, dalam kesempatan tersebut Menteri Keuangan Bambang Brodjonegoro menyampaikan mengenai kinerja ekonomi Indonesia pada tahun 2014 dan kebijakan-kebijakan ekonomi khususnya kebijakan fiskal yang sedang dilakukan.

http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/01/20/457/1094596/menkeu-bertemu-bos-perbankan-jepang-bahas-infrastruktur (http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/01/20/457/1094596/menkeubertemu-bos-perbankan-jepang-bahas-infrastruktur) Sumber : OKEZONE.COM JAKARTA. Neraca Pembayaran Indonesia (NPI) sepanjang triwulan keempat tahun lalu bakal kembali mencetak surplus. Tapi, angka surplusnya tidak bakal sebesar kuartal ketiga 2014. Meski begitu, surplus NPI itu bisa mengurangi defisit yang terjadi pada neraca transaksi berjalan. Juda Agung, Direktur Eksekutif Departemen Kebijakan Ekonomi Moneter Bank Indonesia (BI), menyatakan, neraca pembayaran Indonesia (NPI) selama triwulan IV–2014 bakal mencetak surplus sekitar US$ 2 miliar. Angka ini memang turun jauh ketimbang triwulan III–2014 yang menorehkan surplus sebanyak US$ 6,48 miliar. Menurut Juda, surplus NPI pada triwulan IV–2014 terbatas lantaran arus modal yang keluar dari Indonesia atawa capital outflow sangat besar. Ini juga yang menyebabkan cadangan devisa negara kita turun pada akhir 2014. Pada September 2014, posisi cadangan devisa Indonesia sebesar US$ 111,2 miliar. Kemudian naik US$ 800 juta menjadi US$ 112,0 miliar di Oktober. Pada November, cadangan devisa turun US$ 900 jadi US$ 111,1 miliar. Penurunan ini imbas aktivitas BI melakukan operasi pengendalian moneter dalam upaya stabilisasi nilai tukar rupiah. Tapi, di Desember 2014 lalu, cadangan devisa kita kembali naik menjadi US$ 111,8 miliar. Meskipun terjadi capital outflow, bank sentral menghitung masih ada capital inflow yang lumayan besar pada triwulan IV–2014. “Inflow-nya sekitar US$ 18 miliar,” ujar Juda akhir pekan lalu. Untuk keseluruhan tahun 2014, BI mencatat, terjadi inflow sebesar US$ 23 miliar. Ini yang kemudian menopang transaksi finansial untuk mencetak surplus dan bisa mengurangi defisit transaksi berjalan di triwulan IV–2014. BI memperkirakan, defisit transaksi berjalan di tiga bulan terakhir tahun lalu US$ 6,2 miliar. Tanpa capital inflow yang kencang sepanjang 2014 lalu, ekonomi Indonesia tentu bisa semakin tertekan. Cadangan devisa juga bisa terkuras lebih dalam lagi untuk menutupi defisit di berbagai pos neraca pembayaran Indonesia. Berpotensi naik Sedang tahun ini, BI memproyeksikan, potensi NPI untuk bisa surplus terus berlanjut. Kondisi fiskal yang membaik dengan berbagai reformasi kebijakan di bidang energi akan membangun optimisme dari sektor riil. Dari sisi ekonomi, pertumbuhan Indonesia masih relatif tinggi, dan negara kita adalah negara yang saat ini sedang gencar-gencarnya melakukan reformasi struktural. “Ini yang menimbulkan optimisme di 2015, baik dari sisi inflow portofolio dan investasi langsung,” ungkap Juda. Senada, proyeksi Juniman, Kepala Ekonom Bank Internasional Indonesia (BII), NPI pada triwulan IV–2014 akan surplus sekitar US$ 2 miliar–US$ 3 miliar. Meskipun outflow gede, inflow yang terjadi masih cukup besar. Untuk tahun ini, Juniman melihat BI mempunyai ruang untuk bisa memperbesar surplus NPI. Reformasi struktural yang dilakukan pemerintah akan mendorong tingkat kenyamanan dan kepercayaan para investor. Alhasil, pundi-pundi cadangan devisa bisa lebih besar. “Cadangan devisa tahun ini akan bisa mencapai US$ 116 miliar–US$ 117 miliar,” terang Juniman. Walau inflow masih terjadi dan nilai cadangan devisa berpotensi lebih besar, nilai tukar rupiah cenderung sedikit melemah tahun ini. Yang dicermati investor adalah kondisi global terutama kenaikan suku bunga bank sentral Amerika Serikat (AS). Maka dari itu, pergerakan rupiah tahun ini berada pada Rp 12.400–Rp 12.800 per dollar AS. Menurut Lana Soelistianingsih, ekonom Samuel Aset Manajemen, kunci inflow tahun ini adalah likuiditas global dan rencana kenaikan suku bunga AS. Yang bisa diharapkan Indonesia adalah, perbaikan outlook rating oleh Standard & Poor (S&P) ke posisi investment grade. Kalau terjadi kenaikan rating, maka akan ada aliran dana yang lebih besar masuk ke Indonesia. Reformasi kebijakan struktural yang telah dilakukan pemerintah diharapkan juga bisa menaikkan peringkat Indonesia yang saat ini pada posisi BB+. Pasalnya, ada beberapa negara seperti Jepang yang asuransi dan dan pensiunnya hanya boleh membeli aset di negara dengan peringkat rating investment grade. “Kalau peringkat utang S&P ini naik akan sangat membantu Indonesia. Indonesia perlu melobi S&P untuk dapat peringkat tersebut,” papar Lana. Kalau ini terjadi, surplus NPI akan bisa berlanjut. http://nasional.kontan.co.id/news/neraca-pembayaran-ri-kembali-surplus (http://nasional.kontan.co.id/news/neraca-pembayaran-ri-kembali-surplus) Sumber : KONTAN.CO.ID Inflation: Director of Economic and Monetary Policy of Bank Indonesia mentioned that declining world oil price will contribute deflation of 0.24% in 2015, assuming US$65/barrel average world oil price. For January 2015, deflation from lower fuel price will be more than 0.5%. (Bisnis Indonesia) Sumber : IPS RESEARCH Jakarta – Wakil Presiden Jusuf Kalla (JK) menilai sebenarnya tidak sulit bagi Indonesia untuk mencapai pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 7 persen. Hal ini lantaran, meski kondisi ekonomi Indonesia tidak banyak mengalami perubahan, tetapi dengan kebijakan dan anggaran yang dimiliki pemerintah saat ini, pertumbuhan sebesar itu dinilai tidak sulit untuk dicapai. “Kita bersyukur benar karena walau dengan keadan seperti ini, tetapi dengan budget dan kebijakan yang akan kita buat masa kita tidak bisa tumbuh 7 persen,” ujarnya di Jakarta, seperti dikutip Sabtu sabtu (17/1/2015). Menurut JK, ada pandangan yang menyatakan bahwa untuk dapat tumbuh 7 persen, setidaknya pemerintah harus menyiapkan anggaran Rp 1.000 triliun, tetapi dengan turut sertanya pihak swasta, hal tersebut bukan mustahil bisa tercapai. “Menarik untuk menyimak bahwa untuk tumbuh 7 persen kita butuh Rp 1.000 triliun. Ya Rp 200 triliun-Rp 300 triliun pemerintah punya, maka swasta kita pancing untuk masuk. Tidak sulit. karena kalau dulu kita capek mencari yang mau bangun, sekarang kita capek menerima yang mau bangun,” tandasnya. http://bisnis.liputan6.com/read/2162275/wapres-jusuf-kalla-yakin-ekonomi-ri-bisa-tumbuh-7 (http://bisnis.liputan6.com/read/2162275/wapres-jusuf-kalla-yakin-ekonomi-ri-bisa-tumbuh-7) Sumber : Liputan6.com

Perusahaan Tiongkok Akan Investasi US$ 5 Miliar di Sultra Jakarta– Virtue Dragon Nickel Industry, sebuah perusahaan yang bergerak di sektor pengolahan feronikel asal Tiongkok berencana melakukan investasi di Konawe, Sulawesi Tenggara (Sultra) dengan nilai investasi mencapai US$ 5 miliar. President Director Virtue Dragon Nickel Industry, Andrew Zhu mengatakan, perusahaan akan membangun smelter, powerplant dan pelabuhan dengan luas lahan mencapai 500 hektare. Menurut dia, pembangunan akan dibagi ke dalam tiga tahapan. Pembangunan tahapan pertama dengan luas lahan 100 hektare dengan kapasitas produksi 600.000 ton, pembangunan tahapan pertama diharapkan rampung akhir tahun 2015. Pembangunan tahapan kedua dengan luas lahan 200 hektare dengan kapasitas produksi 1,2 juta ton, pembangunan tahapan kedua diharapkan rampung akhir tahun 2017. Sedangkan, pembangunan tahapan ketiga dengan luas lahan 200 hektare dengan kapasitas produksi 1,2 juta ton, pembangunan tahapan ketiga diharapkan rampung akhir tahun 2019. Andrew mengatakan, hasil pengolahan feronikel akan digunakan untuk kebutuhan dalam negeri dan sisanya akan diekspor ke Tiongkok. “Kami sangat bangga melakukan investasi di Indonesia,” ujar dia ketika ditemui di Kantor Kementerian Perindustrian, Jakarta, Jumat (9/1). Dia mengatakan, powerplant juga akan dibangun dengan kapasitas 335 megawatt. Sementara itu, Direktur Jenderal Pengembangan Perwilayahan Industri, Kementerian Perindustrian Imam Haryono mengatakan pemerintah sangat mendukung investasi asing di Indonesia. Menurut dia, investasi dapat menyerap tenaga kerja serta mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi. Ia mengatakan, untuk perusahaan yang membangun industri hulu tidak akan diberikan insentif kecuali perusahaan tersebut membangun industri dari hulu ke hilir baru akan diberikan insentif berupa pengurangan pajak. Sent from my BlackBerry® Penulis: DHO/PCN beritasatu JAKARTA kontan. Indonesia kian memikat di mata investor global. Salah satu indikasinya, hasil penawaran surat utang berdenominasi dollar AS alias global bond banjir peminat. Pada masa penawaran yang berlangsung Kamis (8/1), global bond Indonesia mendulang permintaan US$ 19,3 miliar atau 4,8 kali dari target penerbitan yang senilai US$ 4 miliar. Toh, pemerintah tetap menyerap sesuai target. Pengamat ekonomi Lana Soelistianingsih menilai, peminat global bond Indonesia membanjir lantaran likuiditas global sedang tinggi. Maklum, Eropa dan Jepang sedang menggelontorkan stimulus. Situasi domestik juga mendukung. Investor menaruh harapan peringkat surat utang Indonesia mencapai investment grade, BBB. Pekan ini, lembaga pemeringkat Standard and Poor’s (S&P) menegaskan peringkat BB+ untuk penerbitan utang Indonesia berdenominasi dollar. “Investor surat utang sangat sensitif terhadap peringkat utang,” ungkap Lana, Jumat (9/1). Harapan itu muncul menyusul kebijakan pemerintah mencabut subsidi bahan bakar minyak. Maka, Lana menilai, Surat Utang Negara (SUN) valas ini menarik. Apalagi kuponnya relatif tinggi. “Investor berpikir, kupon sekarang tinggi. Kalau sudah investment grade, tidak bakal menawarkan kupon setinggi saat ini,” jelasnya. Global bond 2015 terbit dalam dua seri, yaitu bertenor 10 tahun dan 30 tahun dengan kupon 4,125% dan 5,125%. Dibandingkan negara lain, peringkat utang Indonesia sejajar dengan Turki dan Kolombia. Menurut Lana, dibanding dua negara itu, Indonesia masih paling menarik karena potensi investment grade. Sepanjang 2015, pemerintah akan menerbitkan tiga SUN valas, yaitu global sukuk, samurai bond dan eurobond. Lana memperkirakan, sukuk global bakal paling diburu, karena berdenominasi dollar AS, terutama dari pasar Timur Tengah yang umumnya banjir likuiditas. Analis Fixed Income BNI Securities, I Made Adi Saputra sependapat, global sukuk paling berpeluang kelebihan permintaan. “Asal penerbitannya sebelum fed fund rate naik,” ungkapnya. Global Markets Financial Analyst Manager Bank Internasional Indonesia Anup Kumar menyebutkan, tingkat kupon SUN valas mengikuti perkembangan ekonomi global. Selain itu, fundamental makro domestik akan mempengaruhi tingkat kupon. Editor: Hendra Gunawan KOMPAS.com – Lembaga pengelola nama domain internet Asia Pacifik (APTLD) mencatat nama domain internet .ID (dot ID) sebagai domain yang paling berkembang di Asia-Pasifik pada periode September 2014. Selama September, domain .ID tercatat mengalami pertumbuhan sebesar empat persen. Di posisi berikutnya ditempati domain .IR (Iran) dengan pertumbuhan 2,3 persen dan .MY (Malaysia) sebesar 2,2 persen.

Dari sisi jumlah, .CN (Tiongkok) masih tercatat sebagai nama domain yang paling banyak tumbuh. Selama September 2014, tercatat 140.000 nama domain .CN baru didaftarkan. Namun dari persentase, .CN hanya mengalami pertumbuhan sebanyak 1,3 persen. Ketua Pengelola Nama Domain Internet Indonesia (Pandi) Bidang Sosialisasi dan Komunikasi, Sigit Widodo, mengungkapkan, kenaikan yang cukup tinggi terjadi karena animo yang tinggi pada domain apapun.ID. “Sejak diluncurkan 17 Agustus kemarin, sudah lebih dari 6.000 domain .ID didaftarkan,” ungkap Sigit. Domain “apapun.ID” saat ini tercatat sebagai domain .ID terbanyak nomor empat setelah co.id, web.id, dan sch.id. “Melihat perkembangannya, domain “apapun.ID” akan naik ke posisi kedua dalam waktu kurang dari satu tahun,” kata Sigit. “Ini sesuai dengan tren di negara-negara lain. Domain tingkat tinggi biasanya ada di peringkat pertama atau kedua setelah nama domain tingkat dua untuk komersial. Jadi dalam waktu singkat tampaknya “apapun.ID” akan jadi domain kedua terbanyak setelah co.id dan mungkin menjadi peringkat pertama dalam dua-tiga tahun mendatang,” tambah Sigit lagi. Sigit mengatakan, secara umum domain .ID tumbuh cukup pesat dalam tiga tahun terakhir. Dibandingkan tahun 2011, jumlah domain .ID saat ini telah meningkat dua kali lipat. “Masyarakat tampaknya semakin memahami manfaat menggunakan nama domain .ID. Walaupun masih ada yang mengatakan daftar domain .ID ribet karena harus melampirkan identitas, sudah banyak yang memahami bahwa hal ini dilakukan untuk menjaga keamanan penggunaan domain tersebut,” ujar Sigit. Editor: Reza Wahyudi Jakarta detik -Indonesia mampu menjaga stabilitas makro ekonomi dengan relatif baik. Ini bisa dicapai meskipun berbagai cobaan menerpa, seperti bencana alam hingga krisis keuangan global. Terbukti ekonomi Indonesia mampu tumbuh tinggi. Di antara negara-negara G20, Indonesia adalah salah satu yang terbaik dalam hal pertumbuhan ekonomi. Dalam Pidato Kenegaraan 2014 pertengahan Agustus lalu, Presiden Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) menyebutkan bahwa prestasi Indonesia lebih baik ketimbang negara-negara maju seperti Jepang dan Amerika Serikat (AS). “Indonesia mampu mencetak pertumbuhan ekonomi yang relatif tinggi, 2009-2013 rata-rata 5,9%. Ini jauh lebih tinggi dari Amerika Serikat, Eropa, dan Jepang pada kurun waktu yang sama,” kata SBY. Namun, SBY menyadari bahwa kini ekonomi Indonesia tengah melambat. Pada semester I-2014, ekonomi Indonesia tumbuh sekitar 5,2%. “Sungguh demikian, di antara negara-negara G20 kita menempati urutan tertinggi setelah Tiongkok,” sebut SBY. Pencapaian Indonesia, tambahnya, juga patut diapresiasi mengingat sejumlah negara berkembang juga mengalami perlambatan ekonomi. Bahkan ada yang cukup dalam. “Dalam waktu 10 tahun, pendapatan per kapita juga naik 3,5 kali menjadi Rp 36,6 juta pada 2013. Kita patut bersyukur,” ucap SBY. (hds/dnl) Jakarta detik -Sepanjang 10 tahun masa pemerintahannya, Presiden Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) menyatakan telah banyak meraih pencapaian di bidang ekonomi. Salah satunya adalah keberhasilan melunasi utang dari Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF). Pada krisis ekonomi 1997-1998, Indonesia menjadi pasien dari IMF. Seluruh kebijakan ekonomi pemerintah harus dengan persetujuan IMF, sebagai syarat pemberian pinjaman. Namun pada 2006, Indonesia telah melunasi seluruh utang-utangnya ke IMF.

“Kita melunasi utang ke IMF, dan melunasinya 4 tahun lebih awal. Momen yang selalu saya ingat sepanjang karir saya adalah saat menerima Managing Director IMF (Christine Lagarde pada 2012) di kantor saya. Saat itu Indonesia memberi masukan bagaimana mereformasi IMF. Indonesia tidak lagi jadi pasien IMF, yang perencanaan ekonominya harus disetujui IMF,” tutur SBY dalam Pidato Kenegaraan 2014 beberapa waktu lalu. Indonesia memang lebih cepat melunasi utang-utangnya ke IMF, yang harusnya jatuh tempo pada 2010. Sisa pinjaman yang dibayar Indonesia ke IMF saat itu adalah US$ 3,181 miliar. (mkl/hds) Intisari-Online.com – Guru Besar Universitas Gajah Mada sekaligus mantan menteri keuangan, Bambang Sudibyo khawatir dengan ketimpangan ekonomi yang terjadi di Indonesia. Bahkan, Bambang menilai rasio gini Indonesia saat ini lebih besar dibanding zaman Soeharto yang otoriter. Rasio gini sendiri merupakan alat mengukur derajat ketidakmerataan distribusi penduduk yang dibuat oleh Corrado Gini, ahli statistik dan sosiolog Italia. Penilaian Bambang tersebut merujuk pada rasio gini Indonesia yang berada pada angka 0,36 saat Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono mulai memerintah (2005) namun kemudian meningkat menjadi 0,41 pada 2011. “Dulu zaman Pak Harto saja belum pernah seperti ini (ketimpangan tinggi). Pak Harto saja yang otoriter tidak pernah indeks gininya setinggi ini. Dan ini terjadi pada zaman SBY,” tutur Bambang di Jakarta, Jumat (10/10/2014). Bambang Sudibyo melihat pembangunan yang gagal menjadi penyebab rasio gini Indonesia saat ini lebih besar dibanding zaman Soeharto yang otoriter. Kondisi serupa juga terjadi di Thailand, Singapura, Malysia, dan Argentina. Lain halnya dengan negara-negara seperti Perancis (0,32), Taiwan (0,326), Korea (0,321), serta Jerman (0,27) yang mampu melakukan pembangunan secara merata. Selain jurang yang semakin jauh antara kalangan kaya dan rakyat miskin, dampak negatif lain yang dapat muncul, menurut Bambang adalah Indonesia menjadi negara yang suka cari “garagara” seperti China. Partai Komunis yang berkuasa di China sangat korup sekaligus sangat sadar besarnya dorongan pemberontakan dari rakyat di bawah. Untuk mengatasi kondisi tersebut, pemerintah China bukan mengurangi ketimpangan, mereka justru menggunakan dendam rakyat terhadap Jepang sebagai pengalihan. “Pemerintah China paham betul akan berat menghadapi rakyatnya sendiri, sehingga mereka membuat sengketa dengan Jepang. Kemarahan rakyat yang tadinya vertikal menjadi horizontal,” jelas Bambang. Dengan kondisi rasio gini Indonesia saat ini lebih besar dibanding zaman Soeharto yang otoriter, maka menurut Bambang Sudibyo, yang akan menjadi kambing hitam adalah Malaysia. (kompas.com) TRIBUNNEWS.COM.JAKARTA. Sebagai pameran bertaraf internasional dengan konsep businessto business (B2B), selama penyelenggaraan Trade Expo Indonesia (TEI) 2014 pada 812 Oktober 2014, business matching hadir sebagai salah satu layanan TEI. Dalam perhelatan ini Kementerian Perdagangan (Kemendag) memfasilitasi one-on-one meeting antara peserta pameran dan pebisnis mancanegara untuk bertemu partner bisnis masing-masing sesuai dengan bidang usahanya. Di samping memperoleh kemudahan dalam mendapatkan partner bisnis, di sisi lain business matching dapat meningkatkan jejaring bisnis antar negara, serta dapat mengetahui lebih mendalam tentang produk-produk yang diminati pembeli mancanegara. Pada hari pertama pembukaan, sekitar 42 orang pengusaha asal Mumbai, India telah bertemu dengan counterparts-nya di Indonesia untuk membicarakan kerja sama bisnis di Hall D2, JIExpo Kemayoran. Adapun produk-produk yang diminati para pengusaha tersebut antara lain produk suku cadang kendaraan bermotor, makanan dan minuman olahan, furnitur, produk kesehatan dan kecantikan, hasil pertanian, produk karet, produk tekstil, aneka kerajinan tangan tradisional, produk medis dan farmasi, kayu daur ulang, kayu solid, minyak dan gula kelapa, dan produk lainnya. Sedangkan produk-produk yang berhasil menarik pengusaha asal India untuk melakukan pemesanan, yaitu produk makanan olahan berupa makanan ringan, produk spa berupa massage oil, produk hasil hutan berupa getah damar, betel nut, serta produk kecantikan dan perawatan tubuh berupa kapas pembersih wajah dan kapas pembersih telinga. Perkiraannya, nilai transaksi potensial dari program business matchingdelegasi India di hari pertama TEI 2014 diperkirakan lebih dari US$ 145 ribu. Memasuki hari ke-2, (9/10/2014), sebagian anggota delegasi asal India masih akan mengunjungi pameran untuk melihat dan melakukan kontrak bisnis dengan peserta lainnya. Sementara itu, tak kurang dari 90 pebisnis yang berasal dari Malaysia, Australia, Kanada, Jepang, Azerbaijan, Finlandia, Filipina, Singapura, Polandia, dan Lithuania, pada hari ke-2 TEI 2014 akan bertemu dengan calon partnernya. Kemendag memfasilitasi pertemuan-pertemuan tersebut di Hall D2 JIExpo Kemayoran, Jakarta. Diharapkan, sedikitnya 300 pebisnis mancanegara dari lebih 35 negara di dunia yang ikut dalam kegiatan business matching, akan membicarakan kerja sama bisnis dengan mitra pengusahanya di Indonesia. Sejumlah negara yang dipastikan melakukan business matching antara lain adalah Bahrain, Kamerun, Finlandia, Yunani, Madagaskar, Inggris, Estonia, Yordania, Papua Nugini, Meksiko, Kanada, Amerika Serikat, Aljazair, Ethiopia, Jepang, Afrika Selatan, dan Sri Lanka. Hingga hari ini, TEI 2014 dikunjungi oleh lebih dari 14.000 visitors yang berasal dari sedikitnya 100 negara. Produk yang diminati dalam TEI 2014 kali ini seperti home decoration, tekstil dan produk tekstil, furnitur kayu, serta produk agrikultur.(KONTAN/ Handoyo -) TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – Penjualan Mercedes-Benz Indonesia dalam ajang Indonesia Internasional Motor Show 2014 meningkat dua kali lipat dibandingkan tahun lalu, yang hampir mencapai 300 Unit. Dalam pameran yang berlangsung pada 18-28 September 2014 di Jakarta Internasional Expo itu, produk Mercedes buatan lokal paling diminati. Menurut Direktur Penjualan dan Pemasaran Mobil Penumpang MBI Stephan Moebius, mobil buatan lokal yang paling banyak diminati adalah E 400 MG dan S 400 L Exclusive. “Yang paling banyak E 400 MG,” kata Stephan dalam rilis persnya yang diterima Tempo, Sabtu, 4 Oktober 2014. Sayangnya, Stephan enggan merinci total mobil buatan lokal yang terjual. (Baca: Honda HR-V Melenggang di Paris Auto Show 2014 (http://www.tempo.co/read/news/2014/10/05/124611991/Honda-HR-V-Melenggang-di-Paris-Auto-Show-2014)) Produsen mobil mewah asal Jerman itu mencatat Mercedez C 250 Sport yang baru diluncurkan pada pembukaan IIMS itu diminati oleh pembeli. Selain itu, kendaraan baru compact sport utility vehicle (SUV) premium GLA-Class, ML 400 bermuatan lima penumpang dan GL 400 dengan tujuh penumpang, juga menjadi primadona pembeli. “ML 400 dan GL 400 juga telah diproduksi secara lokal,” kata Stephan. Mercedes-Benz Indonesia memajang 13 model dalam ajang IIMS 2014. Lima di antaranya merupakan produk baru yang diluncurkan saat pembukaan. Selain GLA-Class dan S 400 L Exclusive, tiga dari lima model baru itu ialah The New C-Class (C 200 Avantgarde dan C 250 AMG), CLS-Class (CLS 400 AMG Dynamic), dan E 63 AMG S. (Baca: Civic Type R Concept II Tampil Perdana di Paris (http://www.tempo.co/read/news/2014/10/05/124612006/Civic-Type-R-Concept-II-Tampil-Perdana-di-Paris)) Peminat mobil Mercedes tersebar di berbagai wilayah, seperti di Jakarta, Surabaya, Bandung, Bali, Makassar, dan Medan. “Setelah penjualan, yang paling penting bagi Mercedes-Benz adalah pengiriman kendaraan ke pembeli tepat waktu dan dalam kondisi sempurna,” kata Stephan. HUSSEIN ABRI YUSUF INILAHCOM, Jakarta – Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK) mencatat sektor perbankan menguasai 70% aset keuangan nasional. Kepala Departemen Pengembangan Pengawasan dan Manajemen Krisis OJK, Boedi Armanto mengatakan 70% aset tersebut dikuasai 31 konglomerasi keuangan. Sebagian besar berasal dari industri perbankan. “Kalau dilihat, 31 korporasi tersebut mostly dari banking,” katanya. Lebih lanjut, dia mengatakan saat ini OJK telah melakukan identifikasi terhadap konglomerasi keuangan tersebut. Selama ini sifatnya lintas sektor. “Dari 31 konglomerasi keuangan tersebut, sebanyak 10 konglomerasi berbentuk vertical group, 13 konglomerasi berbentuk horizontal group, dan 8 konglomerasi berbentuk mixed group. Dari 31 itu bisa bertambah, ke depan justru akan bertambah,” katanya. Boedi menambahkan, saat ini pihaknya masih terus melakukan identifikasi terutama untuk konglomerasi keuangan yang berada pada satu sektor, seperti konglomerasi keuangan di perbankan, IKNB, ataupun pasar modal. “Identifikasi masih terus kami lakukan. 31 konglomerasi itu memiliki kegiatan baik di perbankan, IKNB, maupun pasar modal,” tuturnya. [hid] Rekomendasi Untuk Anda

Kebobolan Delapan Gol, Van Gaal Bela Pertahanan MU (http://bola.inilah.com/read/detail/2139328/kebobolan-delapan-golvan-gaal-bela-pertahanan-mu) Masa Depan Islah PPP Jilid II (http://nasional.inilah.com/read/detail/2139264/masa-depan-islah-ppp-jilid-ii) Bisnis.com, JAKARTA — Puncak bonus demografi pada 2020-2025 akan menjadi bencana jika tidak ada jalan keluar dari stagnasi sektor manufaktur yang sudah berlangsung hampir dua dekade. Transformasi — lembaga kajian kebijakan publik di bawah Rajawali Foundation — melihat pengembangan sektor manufaktur menjadi pekerjaan rumah yang tidak ringan bagi pemerintahan Joko Widodo-Jusuf Kalla. Senior Advisor Transformasi Bidang Kebijakan Publik Sarwono Kusumaatmadja mengatakan pemerintahan baru harus menyiapkan jalan keluar mengingat sektor ini sangat krusial dalam penyerapan tenaga kerja. “Dengan komposisi penduduk 70% usia kerja, dibutuhkan lapangan kerja baru yang sangat besar. Jika tidak, bonus demografi akan menjadi beban demografi,” katanya dalam siaran pers, Minggu (21/9/2014). Mantan Menteri Kelautan dan Perikanan dan sejumlah jabatan menteri ini berpendapat manufaktur sangat penting bagi Pemerintahan Jokowi-JK. Tidak hanya menciptakan lapangan kerja dan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berkualitas, sektor ini penting untuk memperkuat basis legitimasi politik Jokowi-JK karena ekspektasi publik yang sangat tinggi. Dalam kajian Transformasi, sejak 1995 hingga 2013, sektor manufaktur Indonesia relatif tumbuh 0%. Performa itu sangat berbeda dengan pencapaian beberapa negara di Asia, seperti India yang tumbuh 169%, Tiongkok 446%, dan Vietnam 1.397%. Bahkan, Bangladesh yang selama ini lekat dengan citra sebagai negara miskin, memiliki pertumbuhan manufaktur 202%. Sebaliknya, Indonesia justru menciptakan hambatan kepada investasi yang ingin masuk. Situasi itu berbeda dengan beberapa negara di kawasan, seperti Malaysia, Taiwan, dan Filipina, yang aktif menarik investor di industri-industri penting. Sejak 1990 pula, industri manufaktur Indonesia masih sangat berorientasi ke pasar domestik, bergantung sangat dalam kepada impor barang setengah jadi, serta ekspor komoditas pertanian dan sumber daya alam. “Indonesia tidak mampu menarik investasi besar di sektor industri komponen elektronik dan perakitan, dua dari subsektor manufaktur yang terus berkembang cepat. Rezim investasi Indonesia membingungkan dan kurang transparan,” kata Senior Advisor Transformasi Bidang Kajian Ekonomi Jonathan Pincus. Indonesia, lanjutnya, sebenarnya mempunyai peluang besar untuk membangkitkan industri manufaktur jika mampu menghilangkan hambatan-hambatan produksi. Peluang itu didapat seiring penurunan kinerja industri manufaktur Tiongkok dan tren peningkatan permintaan global akan produk manufaktur dari Asia Pasifik. Tiongkok, dengan kapasitas ekspor produk industri padat karya senilai US$1.500 miliar, mulai kehilangan daya saing pasar ekspor. Indonesia dapat merebut sebagian dari pasar tersebut. Dalam perhitungan Transformasi, jika Indonesia mampu merebut 10% saja, sedikitnya 21 juta lapangan kerja baru akan tercipta. Jumlah itu cukup untuk menangani surplus tenaga kerja saat ini sebanyak 20 juta. Editor : Saeno JAKARTA okezone – Rencana kenaikan suku bunga bank sentral Amerika Serikat (AS), Federal Reserve (Fed) pada triwulan II atau III tahun depan diprediksi tidak akan memberikan dampak pada pasar modal di Indonesia. Direktur utama PT Bursa Efek Indonesia Ito Warsito menyatakan justru kebijakan pemerintah Indonesia sendiri yang akan memberikan dampak pada industri pasar modal dalam negeri. “Sebenarnya kebijakan the Fed tidak berdampak pada pasar modal, artinya kebijakan pemerintah Indonesia sendiri yang akan memberikan dampak untuk menarik investor asing berinvestasi di Indonesia,” papar Ito saat ditemui di di Ritz Carlton, Rabu (17/9/2014). Untuk itu, Ito menyebutkan bahwa Bursa Efek tidak akan melakukan antisipasi apapun terkait dengan ancaman Bank Sentral Amerika yang akan menaikkan suku bunganya. Dirinya mengaku lebih fokus melakukan sosialisasi kepada masyarakat terkait industri pasar modal ketimbang memikirkan The Fed. “Kita tidak peduli dengan kebijakan the Fed pada dasarnya, mereka boleh melakukan apa saja, artinya yang kita lakukan adalah mendidik masyarakat Indonesia untuk berinvestasi di pasar modal, makanya investor summit tahun ini kan temanya menjadikan investasi sebagai gaya hidup masyarakat,” tukas dia. (rzy) JAKARTA okezone – United Overseas Bank (UOB) Group menjalin kerjasama lebih jauh dengan Badan Promosi Perdagangan Internasional Tiongkok (CCPIT). Salah satu tujuannya adalah meningkatkan investasi di China dan Asia Tenggara. Nota kesepahaman kerjasama (MoU) UOB Group dengan CCPIT telah diperbaharui. Setelah sebelumnya, nota tersebut sempat ditandatangani pada tahun 2012 silam. MOU kerjasama ini menekankan pada pertumbuhan intra-regional dan bertujuan membantu UOB Group mempererat serta memperluas hubungan dengan nasabah. “Tren global ini, ditambah kekuatan yang saling melengkapi antara CCPIT dan UOB yang dituangkan dalam MOU ini akan terus memupuk berbagai peluang bisnis bagi perusahaan di seluruh wilayah,” kata Deputy Chairman dan Chief Executive Officer (CEO) UOB Group, Wee Ee Cheong, dalam keterangan tertulisnya, Rabu (17/9/2014). Hasilnya, pinjaman lintas negara yang UOB berikan kepada perusahaan-perusahaan di China meningkat 144 persen selama dua tahun terakhir. Selama periode pertama, UOB Group dan CCPIT telah membantu lebih dari 1.000 perusahaan China menjajaki peluang ekspansi bisnis di Asia Tenggara. Di sisi lain, fokus kerjasama ini akan ditujukan kepada korporasi yang bergerak dalam sektor komoditas dan energi, infrastruktur, konstruksi, teknologi informasi dan manufaktur. Pasalnya China adalah mitra dagang terbesar di Asia Tenggara. Nilai kerjasama bilateral antara China dan Asia Tenggara diperkirakan akan tumbuh dari USD442 miliar pada tahun 2013 menjadi USD1 triliun pada tahun 2020. Dilansir dari Xinhua News Agency. Berdasarkan hasil survei UOB Asian Enterprise Survey 2014, 44 persen perusahaan mendengarkan saran dari kontak pribadi maupun bisnis mereka yang memiliki bahasa atau budaya yang sama (24 persen) atau asosiasi perdagangan dan penasihat keuangan (20 persen). (wdi) TRIBUNNEWS.COM, JAKARTA – Bisnis wealth management seluruh dunia sedang menyoroti Indonesia. Sebab, jumlah miliarder di Tanah Air terus menunjukkan perkembangan pesat. Menurut laporan WealthInsight yang dirilis Januari lalu, Indonesia berada di posisi pertama dalam daftar 10 negara dengan persentase pertumbuhan miliarder tertinggi di dunia. Angka pertumbuhan miliarder di Indonesia mencapai 22,6 persen dari 37.000 pada 2013 dan lebih dari 45.300 pada 2014. Angka ini bahkan melampaui Tiongkok (7,9 persen) dan India (17,1 persen). “Jika kita melihat komponen investasi para miliarder Indonesia, yang juga dikenal dengan High-Net-Worth Individuals (HNWI), properti dan saham adalah dua alokasi investasi terfavorit. Bila porsi keduanya dijumlahkan, maka bisa mencapai 50 persen dari alokasi aset total para HNWI di Indonesia,” kata Head of Consumer Banking Group DBS Indonesia Steffano Ridwan (http://www.tribunnews.com/tag/steffano-ridwan/) dalam keterangan resmi, Senin (15/9/2014). Oleh karena itu, kenaikan harga yang kuat dalam sektor real estate dan pasar saham yang sehat dalam beberapa tahun terakhir dinilai sebagai pendorong utama banyaknya orang Indonesia yang masuk ke dalam kalangan HNWI. Kuatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia juga ikut mendorong munculnya para miliarder baru. “DBS Indonesia melihat para miliarder Indonesia telah semakin dewasa dalam mengelola keuangan. Oleh karenanya, menjadi semakin penting bagi lembaga-lembaga keuangan di Indonesia untuk memahami tren di kalangan HNWI sehingga dapat memberikan pelayanan terbaik kepada kalangan miliarder yang semakin berkembang ini,” ujar Steffano. Metrotvnews.com, Jakarta: Presiden terpilih Joko Widodo memastikan seluruh menteri dari kementerian ekonomi akan ditunjuk dari kalangan profesional. Langkah ini disambut positif ekonom sebagai langkah yang tepat. “Inilah kabar yang ditunggu pasar. Ini merupakan langkah tepat mengingat sektor ekonomi memiliki banyak pekerjaan rumah yang perlu diselesaikan segera. Profesional tentu lebih bisa memahami dengan cepat berbagai persoalan tersebut,” ujar pengamat ekonomi Fauzi Ichsan kepada Media Indonesia, Senin (15/9/2014). Fauzi mengurai sejumlah pekerjaan rumah yang menanti menteri-menteri di sektor ekonomi mendatang. Antara lain persoalan kenaikan bahan bakar minyak, mengurai defisit neraca transaksi berjalan, arbitrase internasional hingga revisi larangan ekspor mineral. “Kalangan profesional bisa juga berasal dari teknokrat. Mereka lebih memahami persoalan di bidang ekonomi. Masalah ini memang harus ditangani oleh profesional teknokrat,” lanjut Fauzi. Hanya saja, Fauzi menekankan kinerja profesional tidak terlepas dari kepentingan politik. Ia berharap Jokowi mampu memberi dukungan politis yang baik terhadap profesional yang kelak duduk di kursi menteri agar dapat menjalankan tugasnya dengan baik. (Tii) JAKARTA kontan. Jakarta menguasai pembangunan hotel di kawasan Asia Pasifik selama Agustus 2014. Ibu kota Indonesia itu kini tengah membangun sebanyak 15.896 kamar hotel. Laporan STR Global yang diterima Kompas.com, Jumat (12/9/2014), menyebutkan jumlah kamar hotel yang masuk dalam pipa pengembangan tersebut merupakan terbanyak di kawasan Asia Pasifik. Sementara itu, pasar utama lainnya macam Chengdu, China, berada di posisi kedua dalam pembangunan kamar hotel dengan jumlah 13.251 unit. Posisi berikutnya disusul Shanghai dengan 12.763 kamar. Selanjutnya adalah Bali dengan 12.737 kamar, dan Manila sebanyak 10.509 kamar. Secara umum, tulis STR Global, wilayah Asia Pasifik bakal menambah populasi penginapan menjadi 2.352 hotel dengan lebih dari setengah juta kamar atau 528.109 kamar. Jumlah tersebut, termasuk proyek-proyek dalam tahap konstruksi, perencanaan akhir dan tahap perencanaan tetapi tidak termasuk proyek-proyek dalam tahap belum dikonfirmasi. (Hilda B Alexander) Editor: Uji Agung Santosa Sumber: Kompas.com WE Online, Jakarta – PT Bank Central Asia (BCA) Tbk akan kembali menurunkan suku bunga deposito sebesar 50 basis poin pada September 2014 mendatang setelah menurunkan 25 basis poin pada Agustus 2014. “Agustus sudah turun 0,25 persen dari 9,25 persen menjadi 9 persen. September turun lagi 0,5 persen dari 9 persen menjadi 8,5 persen. Jadi, sampai akhir tahun akan turun 0,75 persen secara akumulasi dari 9,25 persen menjadi 8,5 persen,” kata Presiden Direktur BCA Jahja Setiaatmadja di sela-sela seminar di Jakarta, Jumat (29/8/2014). Jahja mengatakan penurunan suku bunga deposito tersebut berlaku untuk nasabah yang memiliki deposit di atas Rp 25 miliar. Menurutnya, pihaknya tidak khawatir akan kehilangan nasabah besar karena pihaknya masih memiliki likuiditas yang cukup. Ia mengatakan perseroan akan mencari sumber dana lain untuk mengimbangi biaya dana (cost of fund) yang dikeluarkan agar tidak terlalu tinggi. Kelebihan likuiditas, lanjut Jahja, juga akan menguras keuangan perusahaan karena biaya dana yang perlu dibayarkan juga mahal. Likuiditas BCA yang disimpan di instrumen Sertifikat Bank Indonesia (SBI) hanya mendapatkan imbas hasil (yield) sekitar tujuh persen. Padahal, pihaknya harus membayar dana mahal nasabah setidaknya sembilan persen. “Kebanyakan likuiditas, kami rugi karena bayarnya mahal. Kalau saya dapat cost of fund katakan di 7,8 persen, itu lebih baik. Kami mengalah untuk mengurangi suku bunga deposito. Jadi, nasabah yang pindah bank dananya dapat dinikmati oleh bank lain sehingga kami tidak perlu menaikkan lagi suku bunga deposito,” ujar Jahja. Jahja mengatakan penurunan suku bunga deposito itu tentu akan mengurangi capaian dana mahal dan akan berpengaruh pada dana pihak ketiga (DPK) secara keseluruhan. Oleh karena itu, BCA merevisi target DPK menjadi 10 persen hingga akhir tahun. (Ant) TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – Kelangkaan bahan bakar minyak di berbagai daerah rupanya tak hanya menimpa produk bersubsidi, tapi juga nonsubsidi. Salah seorang pengendara di Tegal, Jawa Tengah, Teguh Iman Santoso, 25 tahun, mengeluhkan sulitnya mencari BBM sejak kemarin. Karyawan perusahaan badan usaha milik negara itu mengaku sudah berkeliling ke sejumlah stasiun pengisian bahan bakar umum (SPBU) di sekitar tempat tinggalnya, namun tak mendapatkan keinginannya. “Tidak cuma Premium, Pertamax juga tidak ada,” katanya kepada Tempo, Senin, 25 Agustus 2014. Pria yang sehari-hari ke kantor menggunakan mobil ini juga tak mendapatkan bahan bakar tadi pagi. Antrean panjang masih terlihat di sejumlah SPBU, antara lain, ​SPBU Pasifik Mal, SPBU Teksin, SPBU Tegalsari, dan SPBU Adiwerna. “Terpaksa bike to work, nih,” kata Teguh. (Baca:BBM Bersubsidi Mulai Langka di Padang (http://www.tempo.co/read/news/2014/08/25/090601962/BBM-Bersubsidi-Mulai-Langka-di-Padang-)) Menurut Direktur Eksekutif Energy Watch Mamit Setiawan, kelangkaan BBM nonsubsidi ini terjadi karena ada perpindahan konsumsi dari BBM bersubsidi ke nonsubsidi. “Otomatis produk BBM nonsubsidi juga habis. Namanya kebutuhan, yang ada apa, ya, dibeli,” kata Mamit saat dihubungi, Senin, 25 Agustus 2014. (Baca: Istri Wakil Wali Kota Antri Bensin Eceran di Tegal (http://www.tempo.co/read/news/2014/08/24/173601906/Istri-Wakil-Wali-Kota-Antri-Bensin-Eceran-di-Tegal)) Menurut Mamit, BBM saat ini menjadi salah satu kebutuhan utama masyarakat Indonesia. Apalagi, jumlah kendaraan pun semakin bertambah. “Mereka butuh apa pun produk energi untuk mobilisasi,” ujarnya. (Baca: Dibatasi, Jero Wacik Bantah BBM Langka (http://www.tempo.co/read/news/2014/08/05/090597398/Dibatasi-Jero-Wacik-Bantah-BBM-Langka)) Justru dengan adanya fenomena ini, ujar Mamit, sebenarnya pemerintah tak perlu ragu menerapkan kebijakan kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi. Sebab, buktinya, masyarakat tidak keberatan mengkonsumsi BBM nonsubsidi yang disparitas harganya mencapai 50 persen. “Masyarakat mau menerima dan beli berapa pun harganya asalkan barangnya ada,” katanya. AYU PRIMA SANDI … menurut analisis gw: defisit neraca perdagangan kita disebabkan oleh permintaan produk luar negeri yang lebe gede daripada permintaan produk kita sendiri … jika itu benar, maka menurut analisis gw: permintaan akan produk luar negeri seperti BBM (bersubsidi), barang elektronik, barang modal, dan konsumtif akan menjadi lebe gede disebabkan oleh kemampuan daya beli semu rakyat akibat harga energi yang relatif lebe murah dan terjangkau … rasa-rasanya bener neh, rakyat kita uda KECANDUAN BBM BERSUBSIDI, baek yang miskin, menengah, bahkan yang kaya sekali pun … permintaan BBM BERSUBSIDI telah MEMBEBANI ANGGARAN BELANJA negara kita, maka anggaran belanja negara CUMA MAMPU MENGHASILKAN DAYA TUMBUH EKONOMI YANG TOTALNYA SEKIRA 5,2% p.a. … padahal pada saat ketergantungan pada BBM BERSUBSIDI AGAK BERKURANG, angka pertumbuhan ekonomi kita sempat meraup 6% p.a. … ketergantungan pada BBM BERSUBSIDI bisa bersifat kuantitatif dalam arti harganya disubsidi, dan bersifat kualitatif dalam arti produknya sangat efektif dan efisien … ketergantungan pada harga murah BBM BERSUBSIDI telah menyeret negara ke era pertumbuhan ekonomi RENDAH … ketergantungan pada produk yang sangat efektif dan efisien dari BBM BERSUBSIDI TIDAK ADA sama sekali, maksudnya BBM BERSUBSIDI TIDAK MEMBERI NILAI TAMBAH APA-APA, buktinya angka pertumbuhan ekonomi MANDEK malah cenderung TURUN … jadi, kesimpulan kasar gw: ketergantungan pada BBM BERSUBSIDI ADALAH BUDAYA KETAHANAN ENERGI YANG SESAT … KETAHANAN ENERGI YANG SEHAT itu yang dibutuhkan, yaitu produk energi SUPER MURAH, SUPER EFEKTIF, dan SUPER SEHAT … super murah bila energi TERSEDIA SECARA LUAS dan DI SEGALA TEMPAT pada SEGALA WAKTU dengan BIAYA PRODUKSI n PEMELIHARAAN YANG RELATIF DI BAWAH BIAYA PRODUKSI BBM BERSUBSIDI … super efektif bila energi MEMBERI KALORI TINGGI pada efektifitas mekanofisika pabrikan dan transportasi … super sehat bila produk limbah energi tidak menjadi polusi dan limbah beracun berbahaya lage … well, ENAK MENDEFINISIKANNYA … … namun, MENGIMPLEMENTASIKANNYA SUPER SULIT penuh KENDALA segala macam BIDANG … tapi sebaeknya tetap diusahakan dan dimulai dengan KEBIJAKAN yang bersifat REVOLUSI MENTALIS SEJATI: BERKORBAN SEKARANG, daripada MENJADI KORBAN SELAMA-LAMANYA (angka pertumbuhan ekonomi makin rendah dan akhirnya malah negatif dan destruktif) … BERKORBAN 2 hal: harga wajar keekonomian energi dan PERBESAR ANGGARAN ENERGI TERBARUI SECARA KONSISTEN (well, kalo bisa SETARA ANGGARAN PENDIDIKAN) …mana ada rakyat kita jaman kini mau BERKORBAN, ya, mungkin cuma PARA RELAWAN yang sungguh-sungguh bergerak bersama karena ada BAHAYA DEMOKRASI KITA terancam serius … well, up2u (sila baca posting2 gw soal energi terbarukan (http://sahamadaro.wordpress.com/?s=terbarukan) JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com — Jika tak ada aral melintang, Kamis (21/8/2014), Mahkamah Konstitusi akan memutuskan persetujuan atau penolakan atas kemenangan Joko Widodo (Jokowi)-Jusuf Kalla dalam Pemilu 2014. Jika Jokowi-Kalla mendapat restu, mereka berjanji akan bergerak cepat. Salah satunya dengan mengajukan revisi Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (APBN) 2015. Rencananya, APBN Perubahan 2015 itu akan diajukan pada Januari 2015. Saat ini, Tim Transisi Jokowi-Jusuf Kalla sedang merancang revisi APBN 2015. Mereka menilai, sejumlah pos di RAPBN 2015 menyulitkan Jokowi dan Kalla dalam mewujudkan misi dan misinya, antara lain anggaran subsidi yang mencapai Rp 433,51 triliun. Angka itu dianggap terlalu besar, khususnya subsidi energi yang mencapai Rp 363,53 triliun. Pemangkasan subsidi energi rencananya akan dilakukan, yakni dengan menaikkan harga bahan bakar subsidi (BBM) secara bertahap. Sumber Kontan di lingkaran Jokowi menyebutkan, kenaikan harga akan dilakukan secara bertahap selama tiga tahun hingga harga BBM bersubsidi sesuai dengan harga pasar, yakni Rp 13.000 per liter dari harga saat ini sebesar Rp 6.500. Kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi mulai dilakukan tahun 2015 dengan kenaikan 20 persen, menyusul 50 persen dan 30 persen hingga 2017. Ini artinya, pada tahun 2015, BBM bersubsidi akan naik Rp 1.500 per liter. “Kami akan melihat situasi dan kondisi atas efek ke inflasi agar tak terlalu memberatkan masyarakat,” bisik sumber itu. Menurut Akbar Faisal, Deputi Tim Transisi Jokowi-Kalla, sebenarnya mereka berharap pemerintahan Presiden Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono mau mengambil risiko menaikkan harga BBM sebelum tugas berakhir. Tetapi, apa lacur, Presiden SBY tak berani mengambil langkah itu. Namun, hal itu tak membuat tim transisi Jokowi dan Kalla patah arang. Kata Andi Widjajanto, Deputi Tim Transisi, timnya mendorong agar BBM naik sebelum RAPBN 2015 sah. Saat ini, Fraksi PDI Perjuangan tengah berjuang agar dalam pembahasan RAPBN 2015 di DPR harga BBM naik. Menteri Keuangan Chatib Basri mengatakan, penurunan subsidi BBM memang bisa dilakukan tanpa mengajukan APBN-P. DPR bisa mengusulkan pengurangan subsidi BBM dalam pembahasan RAPBN 2015. Revisi ketiga menyangkut asumsi makro. Tim ekonomi Jokowi dan Kalla yakin bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi bisa 6 persen. Ini akan mengerek asumsi nilai tukar rupiah yang dalam RAPBN 2015 dibanderol Rp 11.900. “Kami optimistis pertumbuhan lebih baik,” kata Sri Adiningsih, ekonom Tim Pemenangan Jokowi-Kalla. Chatib mengakui, RAPBN 2015 menyisakan ruang fiskal terbatas. Jika pemerintahan baru ingin memiliki ruang fiskal luas dengan menaikkan harga BBM, kata Chatib, kenaikan Rp 2.000 akan menghemat dana subsidi hingga Rp 96 triliun. Alhasil, defisit bisa ditekan sekitar 1 persen. (Agus Triyono, Asep Munazat Zatnika, Barly Haliem, Widyasari Ginting) JAKARTA – Setelah enam jam membaca putusan setebal 300 halaman, MK akhirnya memutuskan untuk menolak gugatan Prabowo Subianto-Hatta Rajasa. Sembilan hakim satu suara, tak satu pun menyatakan dissenting opinion. Keputusan yang mencerminkan harapan publik dan mendukung KPU untuk kemenangan Joko Widodo-Jusuf Kalla akan menggairahkan investasi langsung maupun portofolio. Tahun ini, indeks diprediksi menembus 5.400. Pasar pada perdagangan Kamis (21/8) sempat dilanda aksi jual pada pagi hari dan awal sesi II. Namun, sejalan dengan keputusan yang dibacakan oleh Mahkamah Konstitusi (MK) yang mematahkan satu demi satu gugatan Prabowo-Hatta, pasar akhirnya kembali naik. Pada penutupan perdagangan sekitar pukul 16.00 WIB, indeks mencapai 5.206,14, naik 15,97 poin (0,31%). Sementara itu, kurs rupiah menguat 12,3 poin ke Rp 11.692,5 per dolar AS. Ekonom Universitas Indonesia dan analis PT Samuel Sekuritas Lana Soelistianingsih mengatakan, pergerakan indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) setelah pengumuman MK akan lebih bergairah, mengingat ekspektasi pasar terhadap calon presiden terpilih Joko Widodo (Jokowi) sangat kuat. Euforia ini akan dirasakan pada beberapa hari ke depan, apalagi IHSG sudah mampu melampaui level 5.200. “Mungkin kenaikannya bertahap. Bisa saja dalam perjalanannya akan terkoreksi, atau bergerak datar (sideways). Indeks bisa menguat pada Oktober nanti, apabila kabinet yang dibentuk pemerintahan Jokowi sesuai ekspektasi pasar,” ujar dia kepada Investor Daily di Jakarta, Kamis (21/8). Menurut Lana, apabila IHSG menembus level 5.300 setelah Oktober mendatang, indeks mampu mencapai 5.400 sampai akhir tahun ini. Rupiah juga bisa menguat sampai Rp 11.500 per dolar AS pada akhir 2014. http://www.investor.co.id/marketandcorporatenews/investasi-bergairah/92514 (http://www.investor.co.id/marketandcorporatenews/investasi-bergairah/92514) Sumber : INVESTOR DAILY JAKARTA – Dalam kurun waktu satu dekade, Wakil Menteri Perdagangan, Bayu Krisnamurthi klaim ekspor Indonesia mampu menembus angka USD400 miliar. “Kalau saya lihat dari negara-negara maju, Indonesia walaupun memiliki catatan migas, non migas kita mengalami surplus. Sedangkan negara maju lain sudah mengalami defisit neraca perdagangan sudah lebih lama dari kita,” ungkapnya di Gedung DPR Jakarta , Jumat (15/8/2014). Melihat volume perdagangan Indonesia yang mengalami peningkatan, Bayu yakin bahwa perdagangan Indonesia tumbuh pesat. “Konsumsi dalam negeri sendiri sebesar 65 persen dari GDP tumbuh, perdagangan kita pun tumbuh luar biasa besar adalah antara 7-14 persen untuk perdagangan dalam negeri,” tambahnya. Keyakinan itu didukung oleh upaya revitalisasi pasar tradisional. “Dari sisi kualitatifnya ada upaya kita merevitalisasi pasar tradisional, meningkatkan kehandalan sistem perdagangan dengan peraturan yang lebih baik. Jadi kita punya prestasi yang bisa diapresiasi,” tukas dia.(rzk) http://economy.okezone.com/read/2014/08/15/20/1025021/1-dekade-ekspor-ri-tembus-usd400-miliar (http://economy.okezone.com/read/2014/08/15/20/1025021/1-dekade-ekspor-ri-tembususd400-miliar) Sumber : OKEZONE.COM JAKARTA – Dalam pertemuan World Economic Forum di Filipina tahun ini, secara terbuka menyatakan bahwa Indonesia beruntung dapat mengalami golden decade (dekade emas) selama 10 tahun terakhir ini. “Ini bukan basa-basi. Ini adalah penilaian obyektif dari suatu badan internasional yang independen dan prestisius,” ujar Presiden Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, dalam Pidato Kenegaraan HUT RI ke-69, di Gedung DPR, Jumat (16/8/2014). Dalam dunia serba labil yang penuh dengan gejolak, lanjut SBY, Indonesia harus bersyukur karena dapat menikmati stabilitas politik, perdamaian, pertumbuhan ekonomi dan kerukunan sosial. Hal ini telah dicatat dan diapresiasi oleh masyarakat dunia, sehingga meningkatkan modal politik Indonesia dalam percaturan internasional.(rhs) http://economy.okezone.com/read/2014/08/15/20/1024948/indonesia-alami-golden-decade-di-hut-ke-69 (http://economy.okezone.com/read/2014/08/15/20/1024948/indonesia-alami-goldendecade-di-hut-ke-69) Sumber : OKEZONE.COM Inflation lies low, but trade deficit is back . Inflation stood at 4.53% yoy in July 2014, the lowest level since January 2013, while price gained 0.93% mom. . Food prices and transport tariffs soared, stimulated by the Ramadan festival, while electricity prices had already increased. . The trade balance returned to a deficit of US$305mn in June, even though exports and imports rose on both mom and yoy basis. . We expect yoy inflation to be in the target range of 4.5±1%,nevertheless BI rate is likely to stay at 7.5% in mid-August. Indonesia’s yoy inflation declined to 4.53% in July 2014 from 6.7% the previous month on the combined impact of the Ramadan festival and the start of the academic term. Based on our calculations, inflation may adjust to around 5% in 2H14 due to a high base effect. The current BI rate of 7.5% shows that the country is now running at a positive real interest rate, thus a further increase in the reference rate would not be necessary. The key rate should thus stay unchanged in mid-August. Moreover, latest data shows a trade deficit in June from a small surplus a month before. In 1H14, the deficit reached US$1.13bn. Inflation goes beyond expectations Inflation fell to 4.53% in July 2014 from 6.7% in the prior month. This exceeds economists’ median forecast of 4.44%, according to Bloomberg’s survey. On mom basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) soared by 0.93% (vs. consensus forecast of 0.88%). The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) also reported July core inflation at 4.64% yoy (0.52% mom), lower than last month’s 4.81%. Ramadan and new school term are the triggers. The latest BPS data shows an increase in every category. Transport group mom inflation accelerated to 0.88% from 0.19% but its CPI dropped to 2.96% yoy. Strong food demand during the Ramadan festival also strengthened the pressure on food prices. Raw food prices jumped by 1.94% mom in July from 0.99% in June, pushing yoy inflation to 3.22%. Meanwhile, processed food segment CPI rose by 1% mom (6.93% yoy). The education group also saw high inflation (0.45% mom, 3.78% yoy) with the start of the new academic term. For administered prices, the electricity price for pre-paid customers has already gone up due to an increase of 2% in the base electricity tariff. Trade deficit is back

Indonesia recorded a trade deficit of US$305mn in June 2014, lower than consensus of US$387mn. It had turned around to a slight surplus of US$69.9mn in May. In 1H14, the trade shortfall reached US$1.13bn,compared to US$3.31bn in 1H13. Exports and imports rose on both mom and yoy basis. In June, Indonesia exported US$15.42bn of goods, up 4% mom and 4.45% yoy. A combination of rising demand and higher prices likely contributed to that increase. In addition, we saw an mom increase in the prices of Indonesia’s crude oil. As for imports, the statistics office reported a 6.44% mom increase in June to US$15.72bn. On a yoy basis, the rise was 0.54%. Further rate adjustment unlikely The BI Rate is expected to stay at 7.5%. Considering the expectation on inflation’s future trajectory, a further rate hike is unlikely, in our view. The current BI rate of 7.5% means that Indonesia is now running at a positive real interest rate (yoy inflation should be around 5% in August 2014). Indeed, Bank Indonesia has signaled its hesitation to adjust the key rate lower due to current account deficit level, despite the existence of slower economic growth. We believe it is not likely to adjust the key rate higher until there is a significant adjustment in domestic fuel prices and the global market. Download PDF Sumber : IPS RESEARCH Jakarta – Laporan International Monetary Finance (IMF) terbaru mengungkapkan angka pertumbuhan negara-negara berkembang di Asia termasuk Indonesia diprediksi mengalami perlambatan rata-rata hingga 5% dalam lima tahun ke depan. Sementara BPS merilis pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia semester I-2014 hanya 5,12%, lebih rendah dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun 2013 yang tercatat 5,81%. NERACA Menurut laporan IMF seperti dikutip dari Thestar.com, pekan ini, perlambatan pertumbuhan tersebut diperkirakan bakal mengancam stabilitas ekonomi di negara-negara berkembang. Akibatnya, pemulihan ekonomi di negara-negara maju ikut terganggu. “Negara-negara berkembang sejauh ini tercatat menguat kembali setelah dihantam dampak penarikan dana stimulus The Fed tahun lalu. Tapi saat ini, kekhawatiran akan langkah The Fed menaikkan suku bunganya mulai membayangi negara berkembang,” ujar Kepala Ekonom Institute of International Finance Charles Collyns. IMF bahkan mengungkapkan, setelah mencapai stabilitas finansial, negara-negara berkembang dapat mengalami penderitaan panjang akibat gangguan ekonomi tertentu. Para investor diminta untuk lebih waspada terhadap dampak pengetatan kebijakan ekonomi di Amerika Serikat dan negara manapun Pertumbuhan di Asia termasuk Indonesia diprediksi lambat rata-rata hingga 5% untuk lima tahun ke depan. Angka ini lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan kondisi 2008 saat krisis finansial global terjadi, dimana pertumbuhan mencapai 7%. Menurut pengamat ekonomi Universitas Atmajaya A. Prasetyantoko, dalam menghadapi ancaman global tersebut maka pemerintah perlu mengambil langkah untuk menghadapi ancaman krisis yang dipicu faktor negatif global ini. Dia juga mengajak agar masyarakat dan pelaku pasar tidak panik dalam menghadapi situasi seperti saat ini, dengan melepas portofolionya di pasar uang dan saham. “Pasalnya, hal itu akan menambah buruk kondisi, yang sebenarnya hanya terpengaruh sentimen negatif global semata atau pelaku pasar maupun investor cukup menanti dan bersiap diri untuk kembali masuk ke pasar saat ancaman krisis ini berlalu,” ujarnya kepada Neraca, Selasa (5/8). Menurut dia, laju pertumbuhan ekonomi dipengaruhi oleh krisis negara maju yang masih belum terselesaikan akibat krisis finansial global melanda beberapa tahun lalu. Apabila situasi krisis dunia yang tidak begitu kondusif kembali terjadi maka akan menjadi ancaman bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. “Oleh karenanya, perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi tidak bisa dipandang sebelah mata. Jika pemerintah tidak segera mengantisipasinya, maka perlambatan ekonomi bisa saja berlanjut. Pemerintah jangan sampai salah dalam ambil kebijakan. Misalkan saja, pemerintah tidak mengantisipasi adanya perlambatan dari sisi ekspor dan investasi,” ujarnya. Prasetyantoko pun mengingatkan Bank Indonesia (BI) agar terus menjaga suku bunganya untuk mendukung stabilitas di pasar keuangan, apalagi ada kemungkinan penaikan suku bunga The Fed yang dapat memicu arus modal keluar. Namun, BI jangan serta merta menaikkansuku bunga BI Rate tatkala The Fed meningkatkan suku bunganya. “BI akan terus hati-hati dengan keadaan seperti ini. Selama setahun terakhir, bank sentral cenderung menganut rezim transaksi berjalan ketimbang target inflasi dalam menentukan kebijakan moneter,” ujarnya. Kurang Maksimal Guru besar ekonomi UGM Prof Sri Adiningsih menilai bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi yang melambat pada kuartal II-2014 lebih disebabkan karena investor yang wait and see karena adanya pemilihan presiden (pilpres). “Pemilihan presiden pasti memberikan dampak terhadap investor yang melakukan wait and see. Namun soal pilpres belum tuntas karena masih ada kubu yang melakukan gugatan ke Mahkamah Konstitusi (MK). Kalau belum berujung, maka investor akan jauh lebih lama menunggunya sampai ada kepastian presiden baru,” ujarnya, kemarin. Dia menjelaskan bahwa selain investasi, belanja pemerintah yang kurang maksimal pada kuartal ke II juga menjadi alasan pertumbuhan ekonomi kurang maksimal. “Seperti biasanya, pemerintah baru akan belanja besar-besaran pada kuartal akhir. Padahal belanja pemerintah itu memberikan kontribusi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi karena memang alokasi untuk belanja dari APBN cukup banyak,” ujarnya. Soal langkah The Fed yang bisa menggangu ekonomi di negara-negara berkembang, Sri menuturkan masalah tersebut adalah salah satu pemicu permasalahan struktural yang dialami Indonesia saat ini. “Yang lebih penting adalah bagaimana upaya pemerintah mampu meyakinkan masyarakat dan pelaku pasar bahwa pemerintah fokus pada upaya menyelesaikan pekerjaan rumah yang ada,”ungkapnya. Menurut dia, sederet persoalan masih menunggu untuk diselesaikan antara lain persoalan ketergantungan impor baik bahan baku dan migas, ketahanan pangan, dan defisit neraca transaksi berjalan. “Jika berkaitan dengan rupiah, kita hanya perlu memperdalam kapasitas pasar valuta asing agar penawaran dan permintaan dapat diseimbangkan,” kata dia. Pengamat ekonomi FEUI Lana Soelistyaningsih mengatakan, adanya penurunan pertumbuhan ekonomi untuk negara-negara Asia terutama untuk negara berkembang akan berdampak negative terhadap laju pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Sebab akan mengurangi daya tarik investor menanamkan modalnya di Indonesia. Namun demikian, Lana melihat masih ada peluang pertumbuhan kembali melakukan percepatan. Syaratnya, belanja pemerintah harus digenjot. “Meski dalam waktu 5 tahun mendatang perekonomian negara berkembang akan sulit tumbuh karena dampak pengaruh global, tapi setidaknya pemerintah terutama pemerintah baru mampu mengejar belanja modal sehingga menggairahkan investor untuk menanamkan dananya ke Indonesia sehingga laju ekonomi minimal bisa stabil,” ujarnya. Namun Staf Khusus Presiden Bidang Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Prof Firmanzah PhD menilai, meski terjadi perlambatan dibandingkan kuartal I-2014, pertumbuhan ekonomi pada kuartal II- 2014 sebesar 5,12% tidak buruk dan masih cukup bagus “Saya lihat “not bad” (tidak buruk) dan ok,” kata Firmanzah di Jakarta seperti dikutip Antara kemarin. Firmanzah mengatakan, di tengah ketidakpastian global, dan dampak dari kebijakan AS mengurangi stimulus moneternya yang sangat dirasakan oleh negara-negara berkembang (emerging market), Indonesia tetap mampu tumbuh di atas 5%. Masih kuatnya pasar domestik di Indonesia menjadi salah satu sebab mampu menahan perlambatan perekonomian yang lebih dalam. “Kita masih “over demand” (kelebihan permintaan) dibandingkan kelebihan pasokan,” katanya. Perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi pada kuartal II 2014 ini, menurut dia, diakibatkan sejumlah situasi dan kondisi. Pertama, adanya pemilihan legislatif dan pemilihan presiden yang juga turut menahan sementara waktu investasi dan belanja pemerintah. Belanja pemerintah saat ini masih rendah, dan biasanya akan meningkat pesat pada kuartal III nanti, seperti pola-pola sebelumnya. “Seperti pada 2009 lalu,” katanya. Begitu pula dengan investasi yang diperkirakan akan meningkat pada kuartal III-2014 Kedua, pada 2014 ini mulai diberlakukan UU No 4/2009 tentang Pertambangan Mineral dan Batubara yang mengharuskan ekspor bahan tambang diolah di dalam negeri, bukan bahan mentah. Hal ini mengakibatkan susutnya ekspor bahan tambang. Firmanzah menyakini UU tersebut akan berdampak pada eskpor barang tambang pada 2014 hingga paruh pertama 2016. “Paruh 2016 nantinya ekspor akan meningkat pesat, kalau smelter sudah jadi,” ujarnya. Dia memperkirakan pada kuartal III-2014 pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia tetap kuat di atas 5%. Karena pertumbuhan tersebut akan didukung oleh ekspor seiring dengan kecenderungan meningkatnya harga-harga komoditas dunia seperti kopi, karet dan CPO. Selain itu, faktor fundamental ekonomi Indonesia yang kuat, menurut dia, tetap menjadi daya tarik investor berinvestasi ke Indonesia. bari/agus/mohar Disputed Indonesia Election Deterring State Street: Asean Credit By Yudith Ho, Lilian Karunungan and Yumi Teso – Jul 11, 2014 Bloomberg Indonesia’s disputed election and budget deficit are keeping Schroder Investment Management Ltd. and State Street Global Advisors from adding to holdings of the nation’s bonds, even as the rupiah and stocks rally. The price of Indonesia’s 8.375 percent notes due March 2024 rose 0.7 percent this week in local-currency terms, pushing the yield down 11 basis points to 8.03 percent, as most unofficial counts showed Joko Widodo winning the July 9 election. The rupiah and the Jakarta Composite (JCI) index of shares reacted more positively, gaining 2.4 percent and 2.2 percent. Widodo, who has a lead of about five percentage points based on most initial tallies, has pledged to cut fuel subsidies that strain government finances and contributed to Indonesia raising its budget deficit to 2.4 percent of gross domestic product from 1.69 percent last month. Prabowo Subianto, who has alarmed some investors with pledges to increase borrowing to spur growth, said quick counts done by companies he used for guidance showed him in the lead. “We remain cautious in the near term as the final results haven’t been announced,” Ng Kheng Siang, head of Asia-Pacific fixed income at State Street, which oversees $2.38 trillion, said in a July 9 interview from Singapore. “A challenge by way of just a recount of votes should not rattle the market. However, if it involves street protests, accusations of rigged elections and mud-slinging of sorts, the market will not take this well.” Budget Pressure Indonesia’s bonds, rupiah and stocks fell today for the first time this week. The benchmark 10-year yield rose one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, as of 11:26 a.m. in Jakarta. The currency fell 0.2 percent to 11,598 per dollar and the benchmark stock index slid 1.7 percent. The Election Commission began the task of counting the 140 million votes yesterday to meet a deadline of announcing the official results by July 22. The Constitutional Court will rule on any subsequent legal challenges by Aug. 24. Both candidates urged supporters to guard against attempts to manipulate the tally in their victory speeches. The government set aside 246.49 trillion rupiah ($21.3 billion) for energy subsidies in its revised 2014 budget, up from an earlier estimate of 210.73 trillion rupiah. The goal “may not be achievable without a further revision of retail fuel prices,” Fitch Ratings analysts led by Andrew Colquhoun in Hong Kong wrote in a note yesterday. The cost of crude in New York has climbed 4.5 percent this year. An administration led by Widodo, known locally as Jokowi, would maintain budget discipline and cut fuel subsidies to fund projects, Fauzi Ichsan, acting head of the finance and banking team of Jokowi’s Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, said in an interview last month. Benchmark Rate Prabowo sees Southeast Asia’s largest economy as “underleveraged” and would increase the debt-to-GDP ratio toward 50 percent from last year’s 24 percent to boost economic expansion to as fast as 10 percent, Hashim Djojohadikusumo, his brother and economic adviser, said in June. Bank Indonesia held its benchmark interest rate at 7.5 percent yesterday, as predicted by all 21 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The policy rate will be increased to 8 percent by the end of March, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a research note yesterday written by Chief Asia Economist Andrew Tilton in Hong Kong. Indonesia’s 10-year rupiah bond yield of 8.03 percent, compares with Malaysia’s 4 percent and the Philippines’ 4.16 percent. Jokowi’s plan “would lead to regular increases of fuel prices, which would keep inflation a little bit up, but it is a problem which needs to be solved,” Rajeev De Mello, who manages $10 billion as Schroder’s head of Asian fixed income in Singapore, said in an interview yesterday. Aside from concern over the vote and subsidies, “I do think Indonesian bonds offer attractive yields,” he said. Switching Sides There are already signs that Golkar, the second-largest party and part of Prabowo’s coalition, could switch its support to Jokowi if he becomes president. It’s not possible for Golkar to be in opposition, Zainal Bintang, deputy chairman of the party’s advisory board, said in an interview yesterday. Jusuf Kalla, Jokowi’s running mate and a former Golkar chairman, is one of the party’s best members, Bintang said. Golkar switching sides would give Jokowi 53 percent of parliamentary seats, and would boost the rupiah to 11,000 per dollar, Geoffrey Kendrick, Hong Kong-based strategist at Morgan Stanley and the Indonesian currency’s most-accurate forecaster in the past four quarters, wrote in an e-mail yesterday. Indonesia’s second-quarter current-account deficit will be around $9 billion, Perry Warjiyo, central bank deputy governor, said July 3. That would be close to the record $10 billion in the same period last year, which helped spur a 21 percent plunge in the rupiah in 2013. Gains Limited Indonesia “needs to tackle the twin deficits and be more stringent in managing fiscal spending, where Jokowi’s government seems more prudent, which we welcome,” Sean Chang, Hong Kong-based head of Asian debt investment at Baring Asset Management Ltd., which oversaw 44.4 billion euros ($60 billion) of assets globally in May, said in a July 9 interview. The cost of insuring Indonesian debt against non-payment using five-year credit-default swaps fell four basis points this week to 147, according to CMA. That compares with a three basis point climb to 86 for the Philippines and a gain of five points to 85 for Malaysia. This week’s rally in the rupiah extended its gain in 2014 to 4.9 percent, compared with increases of 2.8 percent for Malaysia’s ringgit and 2.1 percent for the Philippine peso. The Jakarta stocks gauge closed at the highest level since May 2013 yesterday. Indonesia’s local-currency bonds rose 6.9 percent in 2014, with the 3.4 percent gain for Thai securities the next-best performance in Southeast Asia, Bloomberg indexes show “The current rallies are probably short-lived,” Takahide Irimura, the Tokyo-based head of emerging-market research at Kokusai Asset Management Co., which oversees about $36 billion, said in an interview yesterday. “Even if Jokowi’s victory is confirmed, there’s still uncertainty over how the coalition will be set up at parliament and what kind of policies they will introduce, limiting gains in the rupiah and bonds.” detik Jakarta -Kemarin, rakyat Indonesia telah melaksanakan pemilihan presiden (pilpres). Dalam waktu yang tidak terlalu lama lagi, Indonesia akan memiliki pemimpin baru, entah itu pasangan nomor urut 1, Prabowo Subianto-Hatta Rajasa, atau pasangan nomor urut 2, Joko Widodo-Jusuf Kalla. Berbagai pihak telah menyatakan pendapat mereka. Kali ini, lembaga pemeringkat (rating agency) Fitch Ratings pun ikut memberikan pernyataan. Dalam pernyataan tertulis yang diterima detikFinance, Kamis (10/7/2014), Fitch menyatakan kemampuan Prabowo atau Jokowi untuk mengimplementasikan kebijakan di tingkat nasional masih belum teruji. “Namun pengalaman Jokowi sebagai gubernur Jakarta memberi sedikit petunjuk bagaimana kebijakannya nanti di tingkat nasional, jika dia terpilih,” sebut pernyataan itu. Namun, Jokowi dinilai harus bekerja ekstra di parlemen karena pendukung Prabowo di Senayan akan lebih dominan. “Walau begitu, kami memperkirakan koalisi akan sedikit cair jika kemenangan Jokowi sudah dipastikan,” kata siaran tersebut. Menurut Fitch, siapa pun yang nantinya terpilih punya pekerjaan rumah yang tidak ringan. Prabowo atau Jokowi harus memprioritaskan stabilisasi ekonomi. Saat ini, Fitch menilai upaya stabilisasi ekonomi berjalan dengan cukup baik. Ini terlihat dari neraca perdagangan yang kembali surplus, setelah sempat mengalami defisit yang cukup besar. Cadangan devisa juga terus meningkat, terakhir pada Juni tercatat US$ 107,7 miliar. Laju pertumbuhan kredit perbankan juga berhasil direm, seiring ekonomi yang juga melambat. “Kedua kandidat tidak menyebutkan bahwa mereka akan mengubah arah kebijakan ekonomi dalam waktu dekat. Fitch meyakini Indonesia mampu mengatasi berbagai tantangan dengan memprioritaskan stabilisasi ekonomi,” lanjut pernyataan tersebut. Indonesia, menurut Fitch, masih memiliki sejumlah tantangan. Sampai saat ini, transaksi berjalan masih mencatatkan defisit karena tingginya impor. Indonesia juga masih tergantung pada ekspor komoditas, sehingga ketika harganya turun akan berdampak kepada ekonomi secara keseluruhan. Selain itu, tantangan Indonesia juga terkait dengan tingginya impor bahan bakar minyak (BBM). Bahkan faktor ini menyebabkan pemerintah terpaksa menaikkan defisit anggaran dari 1,7% terhadap PDB menjadi 2,4% PDB. (hds/ang) Jakarta, GATRAnews – Direktur Pengelola Bank Dunia Sri Mulyani Indrawati menilai, persoalan yang kerap dihadapi oleh negara-negara berpendapatan menengah, seperti Indonesia adalah kesenjangan pendapatan (income inequality) antarlapisan warga. “Hambatan utama bagi negara-negara berpendapatan menengah adalah kesenjangan pendapatan,” catatnya dikutip dari Antara (24/5). Menurut dia, dengan pertumbuhan yang pesat di sejumlah kawasan Asia juga membuat membesarnya jurang antara si kaya dan masyarakat lainnya, seperti di China dan Indonesia yang relatif masyarakatnya egaliter tradisional. Ia berpendapat bahwa meningkatnya ketimpangan sosial mesti diperhatikan karena akan berdampak kepada masyarakat. Riset Bank Dunia menunjukkan bahwa kesenjangan dapat berdampak kepada terancamnya tingkat pertumbuhan negara tersebut. Selain itu, kesenjangan juga dapat mengesampingkan konsensus yang dibutuhkan guna mengimplementasikan kebijakan dan reformasi yang membuat pertumbuhan tetap tinggi. “Mengelola kesenjangan pertama, dan terutama membutuhkan akses kesempatan yang sama bagi seluruh warga masyarakat,” ujarnya. Sri Mulyani juga mengingatkan bahwa isu lainnya yang harus ditangani negara berpendapatan menengah adalah pengelolaan urbanisasi secara tepat. Ia mengakui bahwa urbanisasi dapat menciptakan kesempatan yang besar bagi warga tetapi bila tidak terkelola dengan baik akan menghasilkan tingginya pengangguran, meningkatnya kemiskinan dan daerah miskin di perkotaan. Di masa lalu, ia mengemukakan, sejumlah negara yang dinilai bisa mengelola pesatnya urbanisasi dengan baik antara lain Jepang dan Korea. Sri Mulyani menambahkan bahwa kedua negara itu “dapat menjadi contoh bagi ekonomi Asia Timur lainnya”. (*/jnr) Jakarta GLOBE Jakarta. The three-day World Economic Forum on East Asia 2014 gets underway in Manila on Wednesday, bringing more than 600 leaders, thinkers and entrepreneurs together. Among other issues, they will discuss how best to prepare the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations for the Asean Economic Community planned for next year, which is to allow freer flows of capital and lower trade barriers. Combined, the Asean member states form one of the biggest economies in Asia, with gross domestic product at about $2 trillion and a population of more than 600 million people. Indonesia, as the biggest economy in Southeast Asia, can take advantage of freer trade under the AEC. Its automotive sector can assemble and ship cars locally and internationally, rivaling Thailand’s. Japanese vehicle makers have been increasing their investments in Indonesia recently, recognizing that demand for cars, trucks and motorcycles remains strong. The nation’s youthful population and cheap labor costs make it an attractive investment destination for such overseas companies as Foxconn Technology Group, which makes iPhones and iPads for Apple. Jakarta next year will be the host for the WEF on East Asia, but business executive Hans-Paul Buerkner, chairman of The Boston Consulting Group, has already made the city one of his two home bases — the other being Frankfurt — and that underscores the importance of Indonesia’s role in Southeast Asia and the global community. Buerkner said in an interview with the Jakarta Globe last week that opening up the market in the region can help drive competitiveness for Indonesian companies. “If you don’t expose yourself to competitive challenges, you may not make the efforts needed,” he said. “That’s the gist of it. Continuously changing, more efficiency, improve your pricing, improve the supply chain, how can you train your people better — it’s a constant effort needed to be better and to be different.” Still, at least one legislator expressed concern about Indonesia’s preparedness ahead of the AEC, while another lawmaker said that the government should learn from the experience of the implementation of the Asean-China Free Trade Area in 2010, which led to a flood of cheap imports from China. Indonesia, with a population of more than 250 million people, faces many challenges in order to move up into developed-nation status. Recently the World Bank designated Indonesia as the 10th biggest economy in the world in terms of purchasing power parity. Yet the bank’s own data from 2011 suggest that poverty remains a problem, with 43 percent of the population living on less than $2 a day. More and more Indonesians, though, will break into middle-income status as people increasingly move to cities from rural areas, leaving farming jobs for employment in the manufacturing and services sectors. While some companies may not be prepared for the AEC, others will be, and it is these companies that will grow, Buerkner said. “It’s very good for Asean to use the 600-million market to develop the whole region. Indonesia is half of that region so it plays a very strong role. The more you open up and the more the region opens up, the more everybody can benefit in the development,” he said. Buerkner likened the experience of Europe before the European Union, in which countries were competing with each other rather than cooperating. The same would apply to the AEC in trying to achieve the same kind of union and attract investment. “Indonesia has the key ingredients, but you have to put these ingredients together and up your game,” he said. “Many countries are coming to invest. We’ve seen massive interest from Japanese companies here, not just to sell here, but also to import from here. That’s why opening the market is a very important turning point, much like the European Union was a very important attraction for investors from America to invest in Europe. Before that, countries were competing with each other. Now you have a larger reach in market. There’s an alternative to investing in India or China.” The BCG chairman added that this doesn’t mean that every company will come to Indonesia, as some will head to countries like Vietnam or Myanmar. “But Indonesia will always be a central element to Asean, and the more you leverage this, the better,” Buerkner said. JAKARTA. Investor asing memandang prospek perekonomian Indonesia ke depan masih cukup baik. Hal itu tercermin dari minat asing pada surat utang negara (SUN) yang sangat tinggi. Bahkan, porsi kepemilikan asing di SUN pada awal bulan ini mencapai rekor tertinggi sepanjang sejarah. Data Direktorat Jenderal Pengelolaan Utang (DJPU) Kementerian Keuangan menunjukkan, porsi dana asing di SUN, per 5 Mei 2014 mencapai Rp 379,95 triliun atau setara 34,61% dari total SUN yang dapat diperdagangkan. Jika dibandingkan dengan akhir tahun lalu, nominal kepemilikan asing di SUN telah naik 17,33%. Pada periode yang sama, total nominal SUN yang dapat diperdagangkan hanya meningkat 10,3% menjadi Rp 1.097,78 triliun. Direktur Surat Utang Negara DJPU, Loto Srinaita Ginting mengatakan, porsi dana asing tersebut merupakan tertinggi sepanjang sejarah. “Dari sisi nominalnya memang yang tertinggi,” ujarnya kepada KONTAN, kemarin (8/5). Loto mengatakan, paling tidak ada dua faktor yang menyebabkan investor asing membanjiri pasar obligasi negara. Pertama, imbal hasil alias yield yang SUN relatif tinggi ketimbang surat utang serupa di negara lain. “Kedua, asing memandang prospek ekonomi Indonesia ke depan juga masih baik,” ungkap Loto. Sementara, pengamat ekonomi Universitas Indonesia, Lana Soelistianingsih mengatakan, tren kenaikan porsi dana asing di SUN, lebih karena imbal hasil yang ditawarkan lebih tinggi dibandingkan negara lain. Obligasi negara Amerika Serikat AS tenor 10 tahun, misalnya, imbal hasilnya cuma sekitar 2%. Sedangkan di Indonesia sekitar 8%. “Tentu ini sangat menarik bagi investor asing,” ujar Lana. Bakal lama

Menurut Lana, surat utang Pemerintah Indonesia banyak dikoleksi oleh bank sentral negara lain, seperti Malaysia dan Singapura. Investor seperti ini cenderung mengoleksi SUN untuk jangka panjang. Lana memperkirakan, tren tingginya porsi dana asing di SUN tersebut bakal berlangsung lama. Porsinya bisa menembus 35% dari total SUN yang diperdagangkan. Investor asing berpikir dengan fundamental ekonomi Indonesia yang membaik, berarti ada kecenderungan suku bunga acuan BI rate diturunkan. Alhasil, yield SBN bisa turun dan harganya jadi naik. “Mereka beli dari sekarang dengan harapan ada capital gain saat BI rate diturunkan,” imbuh Lana. Selanjutnya, investor asing bakal memantau laju inflasi Indonesia. Hasil pemilihan presiden (pilpres) nanti juga akan menjadi faktor penentu minat asing terhadap surat utang pemerintah. http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/wow-dana-asing-di-sun-cetak-rekor (http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/wow-dana-asing-di-sun-cetak-rekor) Sumber : KONTAN.CO.ID JAKARTA – Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK) menyatakan industri pasar modal Tanah Air mengalami pertumbuhan dalam jumlah perusahaan yang tercatat (emiten) di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI). Ketua Dewan Komisioner OJK Muliaman D Hadad mengatakan, hingga akhir Maret 2014 ada 489 emiten di BEI. Jika dilihat, angka ini mengalami perkembangan dalam kurun waktu lima tahun. “Jumlahnya naik mengalami pertumbuhan 5 persen per tahun, paling tinggi di ASEAN,” ungkap Ketua Dewan Komisioner OJK, Muliaman D Hadad di Hotel Le Meridien, Jakarta, Kamis (8/5/2014). Menurut Muliaman, hal ini berbeda sekali dengan negara tetangga lainnya seperti Singapura dan Malaysia yang tidak menunjukkan penambahan perusahaan yang go public. “Di Singapura enggak naik, enggak bertambah malah menurun (ada yang keluar), termasuk juga di Malaysia,” paparnya. Dia menjelaskan, jika dalam tahun ini ada sebanyak 31 emiten baru yang tercatat di BEI, dalam waktu yang tidak lama lagi pasal modal Indonesia bakal menyalip negara-negara tetangga. “Jadi kalau konsisten emiten meningkat, kita bisa bersaing dan mampu meyalip (banyaknya emiten) di negara dalam waktu yang tidak terlalu lama. Apalagi di Indonesia masih banyak perusahaan yang besar. Namun salah satu kunci utama yakni penerapan prinsip GCG untuk emiten,” kata Muliaman. Dia membantah jika ingin menjadi perusahaan yang tercatat di BEI akan mengalami kesulitan untuk mendaftar administrasi. “Tinggal bagaimana listed company itu tidak ribet dan sulit, karena dinilai banyak administrasinya,” katanya. “Makanya kita terus lakukan sosialisasi dan komunikasi diperlukan, besar sekali manfaatnya bisa listed di BEI, nilai perusahaan akan jelas, kalau dijual akan jelas karena dihargai pasar,” tukasnya. http://economy.okezone.com/read/2014/05/09/278/982373/pertumbuhan-emiten-di-bei-paling-tinggi-se-asean (http://economy.okezone.com/read/2014/05/09/278/982373/pertumbuhanemiten-di-bei-paling-tinggi-se-asean) Sumber : OKEZONE.COM Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Kontraksi yang terjadi dalam bisnis ekspor pertambangan dinilai sebagai salah satu penyebab utama perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi pada kuartal I/2014. Gubernur BI Agus DW Martowardojo mengatakan melemahnya kinerja ekspor pertambangan disebabkan oleh tiga hal. Pertama, perlambatan permintaan oleh importir akibat melambatnya tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi di China yang merupakan salah satu importir terbesar produk tambang asal Indonesia. “Perlambatan permintaan menyebabkan kinerja ekspor terkoreksi,” katanya, Kamis (8/5/2014). Alasan kedua adalah masih melemahnya harga pertambangan dan bahan komoditas di pasar global, terutama tembaga, batubara, dan karet. Ketiga, faktor penghambat pertumbuhan ekonomi menurut BI adalah dampak penerapan UU Minerba yang melarang ekspor bahan mineral mentah. Menurut Agus, hingga saat ini kalangan eksportir mineral belum dapat sepenuhnya beradaptasi dengan peraturan tersebut sehingga kinerja ekspor mereka terhambat. Bank Indonesia merevisi target pertumbuhan ekonomi menjadi 5,1%-5,5% pada tahun ini, lebih rendah dibandingkan target yang ditetapkan sebelumnya yakni 5,5%-5,9%. Revisi target tersebut dilakukan setelah melihat realisasi pertumbuhan ekonomi pada kuartal I tahun ini yang hanya berada pada level 5,2%, lebih rendah dari perkiraan awal 5,7%. Editor : Sepudin Zuhri detik Jakarta -Ekonomi Indonesia menunjukkan perlambatan pada kuartal I-2014, dengan hanya tumbuh sebesar 5,21% (yoy) dan 0,95% (qtq). Secara nominal, PDB Indonesia tercatat sebesar Rp 2.401 triliun. Menteri Keuangan Chatib Basri mengatakan pemerintah memang merencanakan adanya perlambatan pertumbuhan. Hal ini dilakukan untuk menjaga kestabilan ekonomi. “Perlambatan pertumbuhan memang bagian dari strategi untuk mengatasi current account deficit,” kata Chatib dalam pesan singkatnya kepada wartawan, Senin (5/5/2014). Meski begitu, Chatib mengaku bahwa realisasi pertumbuhan ekonomi kuartal I-2014 di bawah ekspektasinya. Dia pun berharap untuk sepanjang 2014, pertumbuhan ekonomi masih bisa lebih dari 5,5%. “Pertumbuhan diharapkan di atas 5,5%, karena kita juga tidak ingin terlalu rendah. Angka ini memang lebih rendah dari perkiraan saya, PDB Q1 2014 hanya tumbuh 5,21% yoy dan 0,95% qtq,” sebutnya. Penyebab perlambatan ini, lanjut Chatib, lebih kepada penurunan pada sisi ekspor. “Jadi bukan investasi. Mudah-mudahan dengan perbaikan ekonomi AS ekspor akan mulai membaik,” sebutnya. Perlambatan pertumbuhan nasional tidak lepas dari perkembangan ekonomi global yang masih belum pasti. AS masih berusaha keras untuk pulih dari krisis akibat subprime mortgage yang menghantam negara tersebut pada 2008. Negara-negara berkembang seperti Tiongkok dan India pun tengah mengalami perlambatan ekonomi. (mkl/hds) Jakarta, HanTer – Indonesia kini berada di peringkat ke-10 ekonomi dunia dari Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB). Tetapi, menurut pengamat ekonomi, Eny Sri Hartati, Indonesia seharusnya berada di peringkat keempat ekonomi dunia. “Seharusnya kita negara keempat setelah Amerika, Cina, dan India. Indonesia kalau dilihat dari size-nya mustinya keempat bukan 10,” kata Eny Sri Hartati kepada Harian Terbit, kemarin. Alasan Eny, hal itu lantaran Indonesia memiliki kekayaan Sumber Daya Alam (SDA) hayati yang sangat besar dibandingkan negara-negara lain. Dari segi potensi, ekonomi, Indonesia yang terbaik dari sisi resources, kekayaan hayatinya, dan jumlah penduduknya. Selain itu, lanjut Eny, pertumbuhan ekonomi yang saat ini mengalami peningkatan yang cukup signifikan sehingga bisa dijadikan tolak ukur kinerja perekonomian Indonesia. Namun, yang menjadi persoalan adalah sektor-sektor pertumbuhan ekonomi lebih banyak didorong oleh investor asing dan pendistribusian produksi barang yang tidak merata. “Ukuran untuk melihat sebuah kinerja perekonomian tidak hanya satu parameter. Secara teoritis untuk ukuran GDP saja, banyak kritik, diantaranya GDP tidak selalu mencerminkan tingkat kesejahteraan masyarakat,” ujarnya. Eny menjelaskan, perhitungan nilai GDP berdasarkan produk yang dihasilkan suatu wilayah, tetapi apakah produk tersebut dinikmati atau tidak oleh seluruh warga Indonesia. Sedangkan angka Gross National Product (GNP) didapat berdasarkan produk yang dinikmati seluruh warga negara tersebut. “Nah, hanya perbedaannya kan kalau di negara maju antara GDP dan GNP berbeda tipis tidak terlalu signifikan. Di Indonesia itu yang menjadi persoalan karena penguasaan sektor-sektor bisnis kan asing, walaupun produk tersebut dihasilkan di wilayah Indonesia tetapi tidak serta merta dinikmati oleh WNI karena kita lihat repatriasi devisa setiap tahunnya sangat besar,” urai Eny. Disisi lain, Eny mengatakan, pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada tahun ini hanya akan mencapai kisaran 5,7-5,8 persen. Hal ini disebabkan karena sumber pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia hanya terkonsentasi dari sektor konsumsi serta investasi yang melambat. “Sulit mencapai enam persen hitung-hitungan kita antara 5,7-5,8 persen. Karena konstribusi ekspor juga belum optimal meskipun di triwulan pertama ini surplus ya, surplusnya kecil banget,” tuturnya. Sebelumnya, Presiden Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) menyampaikan bahwa Bank Dunia telah menempatkan Indonesia pada peringkat ekonomi ke 10 dunia berdasarkan dari GDP. Dari sembilan negara yang berada di peringkat teratas adalah Amerika Serikat, Tiongkok, India, Jepang, Jerman, Rusia, Brazil, Prancis, dan Inggris. “Tahun ini awal yang baik, tapi masih panjang perjalanan kita, masih banyak masalah yang harus diatasi,” ungkap SBY. (Fajar) Bank Dunia: Indonesia Berhasil Kelola Risiko Global Ismail Fahmi – Rabu, 30 April 2014, 10:23 WIB Bisnis.com, JAKARTA–Bank Dunia berharap semua negara dapat mengantisipasi dan beradaptasi terhadap perkembangan dan perubahan global, mengingat kondisi global yang dinamis dapat memunculkan beragam risiko. Director World Development Report 2014 Bank Dunia, Norman Loayza menyarankan agar semua negara membentuk badan risiko nasional yang berfungsi untuk mengelola risiko ke dalam agenda pembangunan. “Dan Indonesia merupakan salah satu negara di dunia telah melakukan adaptasi ini, tinggal mengoptimalkan peluang yang ada,” jelasnya seperti dimuat situs Kemenkeu, Rabu (30/4/2014). Dia menyebutkan pengelolaan risiko secara bertanggung jawab dan efektif dapat menghindari kerusakan ekonomi, juga menghindari negara dari terjadinya kemunduran dalam pembangunan. “Sekaligus dapat mengoptimalkan peluang.” Pernyataan Loayza tersebut merujuk pada terus meningkatnya angka cadangan devisa Indonesia serta prospek investasi dan kondisi neraca transaksi berjalan yang terus membaik. “Laju inflasi juga merupakan faktor yang sangat penting untuk terus dicermati dan dikendalikan dalam rangka menjaga ketahanan ekonomi,” imbuhnya. Selain itu, pemberian insentif yang tepat bagi lembaga atau individu juga dinilai penting untuk meredam potensi kerugian sebagai dampak dari perubahan global. “Hal itu juga telah dilakukan Indonesia melalui sejumlah paket kebijakan pemerintah yang diluncurkan tahun lalu (2013).” Editor : Ismail Fahmi Menkeu nyatakan S&P khawatir kondisi ekonomi Indonesia Selasa, 29 April 2014 19:13 WIB | 1715 Views Pewarta: Satyagraha Jakarta (ANTARA News) – Menteri Keuangan Chatib Basri mengatakan lembaga pemeringkat Standard&Poors (S&P) masih khawatir dengan kondisi perekonomian nasional, sehingga belum memberikan peringkat layak investasi (investment grade) kepada Indonesia. “Satu-satunya yang belum memberikan investment grade kan S&P, dan mereka ketat sekali. Sebelumnya ada kekhawatiran, bahwa dengan kondisi seperti ini, mereka akan merevisi tapi buktinya mereka masih reaffirm,” ujarnya menanggapi rilis terbaru S&P di Jakarta, Selasa. Lembaga pemeringkat S&P dalam rilis terbaru masih mempertahankan peringkat utang Indonesia dengan outlook stabil atau BB+ dalam jangka panjang dan B untuk peringkat kredit jangka pendek, sama seperti sebelumnya. Peringkat stabil diberikan karena masih ada kebijakan pemerintah yang kurang efektif dan tata kelola yang lemah, rendahnya PDB per kapita, kebijakan fiskal yang konservatif dalam menghadapi tekanan eksternal, penanganan utang yang memadai dan prospek pertumbuhan ekonomi kuat yang moderat. Chatib mengatakan S&P tidak menurunkan maupun menaikkan peringkat utang Indonesia, karena Indonesia dilihat masih dapat mengelola ekonomi makro dengan baik, meskipun seharusnya ada pembenahan terhadap beberapa persoalan struktural. “Buktinya mereka lihat reaffirm (terkait ekonomi Indonesia) dan menganggap soal fiskalnya juga baik serta kebijakan macro economy juga baik,” kata mantan Kepala BKPM ini. Ia memberikan apresiasi terkait keputusan S&P mempertahankan peringkat utang ini, karena dalam situasi dimana pemerintah fokus untuk melakukan pembenahan struktural sejak pertengahan 2013, bisa saja peringkat Indonesia turun. “Saya berharap (peringkat Indonesia) naik tetapi situasinya kayak begini, buat saya enam bulan lalu saya bisa memanage (dengan memperbaiki current account deficit) saja, itu sesuatu yang bagus,” ujar Chatib. S&P menjanjikan akan menaikkan peringkat utang Indonesia, apabila ada kebijakan pemerintah yang jelas terkait reformasi belanja subsidi, yang akan mengurangi kerentanan fiskal, memperbaiki kinerja APBN, mengurangi beban utang dan mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi. Namun, peringkat Indonesia dapat diturunkan apabila pemerintah gagal untuk merespon tekanan eksternal yang dapat mempengaruhi kondisi fiskal dan menerbitkan kebijakan yang memadai, atau kebijakan yang membahayakan prospek pertumbuhan atau kondisi fiskal serta utang dalam jangka panjang. (S034/S004) Editor: Ruslan Burhani Keluar dari “Fragile Five”, Rupiah Masuk “High Five” Rabu, 23 April 2014 | 07:39 WIB SINGAPURA, KOMPAS.com – Performa mata uang yang termasuk dalam “fragile five” secara berangsur-angsur mulai menguat. Para analis pun memasukkan mata uang ke lima negara tersebut kedalam “high five”, yakni mata uang yang mempunyai performa terbaik sejak akhir Februari dan menjadi mata uang terbaik untuk “dimainkan” dengan volatilitas rendah di pasar mata uang tahun ini. Mata uang apa sajakah itu? Mereka adalah real Brazil, rupee India, lira Turki, rupiah Indonesia, dan rand Afrika Selatan. Menurut sejumlah analis, kelima mata uang ini kembali diburu dengan strategi carry trade. “Apa jawaban dari rendahnya volatilitas suatu mata uang? Membelinya dengan strategi carry, dan langkah ini yang sudah kami rekomendasikan sejak akhir Februari lalu. Beli lima mata uang terbaik atau high five, posisi mereka tidak rentan lagi,” papar David Bloom, HSBC global head of FX. Dalam carry trade, investor meminjam uang dari negara berbunga rendah dan membiakkannya di negara lain yang masih memasang bunga tinggi. Strategi pembelian mata uang ini kembali marak dilakukan tahun lalu seiring tingginya volatilitas mata uang emerging market yang dipicu oleh kecemasan penarikan stimulus AS. Namun, Pimpinan the Frderal Reserve Janet Yellen menjamin bahwa program pembelian aset oleh bank sentral akan terus dilakukan selama waktu yang dibutuhkan. Pernyataan tersebut yang kemudian menyokong langkah mata uang emerging. Bloom mengingatkan, adanya pergerakan fluktuatif yang tinggi dalam transaksi perdagangan mata uang dapat menyebabkan carry trade sangat berisiko. Namun, rendahnya volatilitas di pasar mata uang negara maju juga turut mendorong carry trade dan mata uang emerging. “Yang Anda harus lakukan hanyalah memilih mata uang Brazil, India, Turki, Indonesia dan Afrika Selatan dan duduk yang manis. Jika tidak ada volatilitas, ambil saja keuntungan yieldnya. “Dalam lingkungan yang tingkat volatilitasnya rendah, salah satu langkah yang dapat dilakukan adalah membeli lima mata uang high five,” paparnya. (Barratut Taqiyyah) Editor : Erlangga Djumena Sumber : KONTAN Indonesia Dapat Apresiasi G20 Terkait Kebijakan Moneter Kamis, 17 April 2014 | 10:30 JAKARTA- Menteri Keuangan (Menkeu) Chatib Basri mengatakan, Indonesia memperoleh apresiasi dari forum G20 terkait kebijakan moneter maupun fiskal yang tepat dalam mengatasi isu defisit neraca transaksi berjalan. “Kebijakan Indonesia dianggap tepat, bagaimana merespon dengan fiskal untuk mengurangi subsidi BBM, dan Bank Indonesia juga menaikkan interest rate membuat nilai tukar menguat,” katanya di Jakarta, Rabu. Chatib Basri bersama Gubernur Bank Indonesia (BI) Agus Martowardojo telah menghadiri Pertemuan G20 tingkat menteri keuangan dan gubernur bank sentral di Washington, Amerika Serikat, 10-13 April 2014. Ia menambahkan kebijakan moneter dan fiskal yang sesuai untuk menjaga fundamental ekonomi tersebut, memberikan kepercayaan kepada investor atas prospek ekonomi Indonesia yang lebih memadai di masa mendatang. Namun, Chatib mengaku kebijakan ini merupakan solusi jangka pendek, untuk itu upaya jangka panjang dalam memperbaiki kinerja perekonomian nasional harus dilakukan melalui pembenahan atau reformasi struktural. “Kebijakan ini hanya jangka pendek, tidak mungkin ada pengetatan fiskal maupun moneter terus menerus, makanya harus diimbangi dengan reformasi struktural, yang dilakukan dalam konteks sistem politik,” katanya. Selain itu, dalam forum G20 juga dibahas mengenai pemulihan ekonomi di AS, serta kemungkinan rencana The Fed (Bank Sentral AS) yang akan menaikkan suku bunga acuan pada Juni 2015 setelah tapering off selesai dilakukan. “Kebijakan moneter akan terkoneksi dengan tingkat pengangguran AS, kalau itu mencapai 6,5%, setelah tapering off, maka interest rate akan dinaikkan. Rasanya emerging market perlu untuk mengantisipasi hal itu,” ujar Menkeu. (ant/gor)

Fragile no more

How the world’s fourth-most-populous country is weathering the emerging-market turmoil LAST year Indonesia was struck by the financial storm that pummelled emerging markets, earning itself a place among the so-called “fragile five” of the developing world. When in May the Federal Reserve began discussing plans to scale back its asset purchases, the prospect of higher yields in rich countries made investors reluctant to pour more money into emerging economies. Indonesia’s currency sank in value, along with those of other countries that had been prime destinations for rich-world cash. This year other emerging markets suffered a similar slump, caused by the Fed’s decision to go ahead with the mooted “taper”. Central banks in Turkey, India and South Africa have all hiked interest rates to defend their battered currencies. Yet Indonesia’s rupiah has rallied by 3.3% against the dollar—the most among major emerging-market currencies. Jakarta’s main stockmarket is trading close to four-month highs. And foreign funds have bought $1 billion more local bonds and shares this year than they have sold.

Indonesia appears to owe its turnaround to timing. It earned its spot among the fragile five thanks to its large current-account deficit, which widened to a record $10 billion, or 4.4% of GDP, last summer. But in August its central bank abandoned efforts to prop up its currency and allowed it to float, leading to a depreciation of about 14% in real, trade-weighted terms from May to now. The weaker rupiah made Indonesia’s exports cheaper in foreign markets and imports more costly. The deficit has since dropped by more than half, to $4 billion, or 2% of GDP, at the end of 2013. In December Indonesia recorded its biggest monthly trade surplus for two years; merchandise exports rose by 10.3% year-on-year (see chart).

Other central banks waited too long to respond to market turmoil and then overreacted. Turkey raised rates by 5.5 percentage points in a single day, hoping to cow traders into laying down arms. Bank Indonesia had raised rates earlier, by contrast, and more gradually: enough to cool domestic demand but not enough to touch off a recession. The combination of higher rates and a cheaper currency nurtured a rebalancing. Despite slower consumption growth, annual GDP growth accelerated to 5.7% in the fourth quarter, boosted by exports. Indonesia no longer looks so fragile. Government policy may have helped the process along. The decision to raise the price of subsidised petrol and diesel squeezed demand for oil, which accounted for about 23% of imports at a cost of $42 billion last year. Other measures look less effective, like higher taxes on imports of some consumer and luxury goods. But the government, heady with recent success, now risks scaring away investors with heavier-handed intervention. On February 11th Indonesia’s parliament passed a new trade law giving authorities far-reaching powers to restrict exports and imports. Its dubious aim is to protect local producers from foreign competition while developing higher-value industries. Bayu Krisnamurthi, the deputy trade minister, bragged that it showed that Indonesia was “not adopting a free market”. The law is only the latest in a series of ill-considered trade policies, which includes a recent ban on exports of mineral ores that puts at risk some $5 billion a year in foreign-exchange receipts. The turn toward protectionism is linked to this year’s parliamentary and presidential elections—laissez-faire economics is unpopular in Indonesia. Yet with global capital in a fickle mood, governments cannot assume that markets will shrug off electioneering. Indonesia owes the striking turn of fortunes in its economic performance to rather orthodox economic policies. The central bank let market forces operate freely, allowing the rupiah to depreciate to the point where exports have become competitive again. If the authorities continue on their protectionist course they may convince investors that Indonesia remains fragile after all. And pushing the economy back into financial turmoil is unlikely to be a vote-winner. From the print edition: Finance and economics (http://www.economist.com/printedition/2014-02-22) Indonesia Bebas dari Kerapuhan Ekonomi Oleh: Wiyanto ekonomi – Minggu, 6 April 2014 | 01:00 WIB INILAHCOM, Jakarta – Indonesia merupakan negara berkembang dengan aliran modal asing yang deras. RI pun sudah melepas tuduhan fragile five atau lima negara yang rentan terhadap kerapuhan ekonomi. Direktur Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) Enny Sri Hartati mengatakan, fundamental ekonomilah yang menjadikan Indonesia bebas dari fragile five. “Ini akibat fundamental ekonomi Indonesia yang stabil yang menyebabkan ekonomi Indonesia tidak rapuh,” ujar Enny kepada INILAHCOM di Jakarta, Sabtu (5/4/2014). Bank Indonesia mencatatkan Indonesia sudah mendapatkan arus modal asing yang cukup besar US$5,7 miliar atau sekitar Rp64,4 triliun sejak Januari sampai Maret 2014. Hanya untuk Maret 2014, mencapai US$2,7 miliar yang mengalir ke saham, US$1,2 miliar ke Surat Berharga Negara US$1,4 miliar, dan Sertifikat Bank Indonesia US$1 miliar. Menurut Enny dengan adanya capital inflow atau arus modal asing sampai Maret 2014 sebesar US$5,7 miliar menjadi bukti kuat fundamental ekonomi Indonesia stabil yang membuat kepercayaan investor terhadap Indonesia tidak berkurang. “Gangguan eksternal tidak signifikan, karena kita enggak tergantung dengan asing,” jelas Enny. Enny mengatakan stabilnya fundamental ekonomi Indonesia tercermin pada Indeks Tendensi Bisnis yang meningkat. “Indeks Tendensi Bisnis membaik dan proses politik aman. Tidak lupa yield atau imbal hasil masih tinggi di Indonesia,” katanya. [jin] Derasnya Dana Asing Tunjukkan Kepercayaan Investor Selasa, 1 April 2014 | 15:55 investor daily JAKARTA – Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) menilai bahwa derasnya dana asing yang masuk ke pasar saham domestik menunjukkan kepercayaan investor global terhadap pasar modal domestik cukup positif. “Ekpektasi positif terhadap ekonomi Indonesia cukup baik sehingga menimbulkan harapan bagi investor sehingga dana asing masuk ke pasar modal domestik,” ujar Direktur Penilaian Perusahaan BEI, Hoesen di Jakarta, Selasa. Dalam data BEI per kuartal I 2014 tercatat investor asing membukukan nilai beli bersih Rp24,62 triliun atau meningkat sekitar 31,21 persen jika dibandingkan periode sama pada tahun sebelumnya yang sebesar Rp18,77 triliun. Menurut Hoesen, ekpektasi yang baik terhadap ekonomi domestik itu mendorong kinerja pasar modal yang dampaknya terasa pada menguatnya indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) BEI. Hal senada juga diungkapkan Kepala Riset MNC Securities Edwin Sebayang, menurutnya, ekonomi Indonesia pada tahun ini akan tumbuh sesuai dengan yang ditargetkan Pemerintah. “Terbukti, data inflasi Maret 2014 yang baru diumumkan Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) sebesar 0,08 persen, laju inflasi itu sesuai dengan ekspektasi pasar,” kata dia. Di sisi lain, lanjut dia, investor juga berekspektasi positif terhadap pelaksanaan pemilihan umum baik Legislatif maupun Presiden akan berjalan lancar, selain itu figur calon pemimpin yang beredar juga cukup diterima oleh kalangan pasar keuangan. “Berkaca pada data historis pada Pemilu tahun 2004 dan 2009, pelaku pasar asing cenderung ‘mencuri start’ untuk masuk ke pasar saham,” ujarnya. Edwin Sebayang menambahkan bahwa dari sisi valuasi harga, indeks BEI memiliki “price earning” (PE) yang masih dapat meningkat. Saat ini PER IHSG sekitar 15,04 kali. “Valuasi PE masih berpotensi meningkat. IHSG ada potensi mencapai 5.072 poin pada tahun ini dengan asumsi PE IHSG sebesar 16 kali,” kata dia.(ant/hrb) 2015, RI Masuk Fase Growing Economic Oleh Ridho Syukra | Rabu, 26 Maret 2014 | 7:13 investor daily JAKARTA – Perekonomian Indonesia terus menunjukkan tanda-tanda perbaikan dan diperkirakan memasuki fase growing economic tahun depan, dengan rata-rata pertumbuhan ekonomi di atas 6%. “Perekonomian Indonesia 2015 diperkirakan mencapai level 5,8-6,1% dan berpotensi memasuki fase growing economic,” kata Kepala Ekonom Bank BNI Ryan Kiryanto usai acara Seminar Bangkitnya Ekonomi Global dan Antisipasi Ekonomi Domestik di Gedung Menteri Perekonomian, Jakarta, Selasa (25/3). Dia mengatakan, perekonomian Indonesia diperkirakan membaik karena 4 faktor penunjang. Pertama, jumlah populasi besar dan peningkatan angkatan kerja yang produktif. Saat ini, Indonesia dilihat dari jumlah penduduk berada diperingkat 4 dunia. Sedangkan dari sisi ekonomi ekonomi negara ini terbesar di Asia Tenggara, serta memiliki bonus demografi dan tumbuhnya kelompok middle income. Kedua, sumber daya alam yang berlimpah seperti batu bara, minyak, gas bumi dan crude palm oil (CPO). Faktor ketiga yaitu kinerja makro ekonomo yang stabil dan kuat. Hal ini tergambar dari tren peningkatan investasi langsung yang semakin tumbuh, laju inflasi yang terkendali dan investasi di sektor infrastruktur yang meningkat. Faktor keempat adalah pengelolaan fiskal yang hati-hati dimana defisit anggaran pemerintah berada pada level dibawah 3% terhadap produk domestik bruto (PDB) dan manajemen utang terkendali. Soal Investasi Pabrik Elektronik di Indonesia, Jabil Bisa Salip Foxconn Riendy Astria – Senin, 17 Maret 2014, 17:28 WIB Bisnis.com, JAKARTA –Perusahaan manufaktur asal Taiwan, Foxconn Technology Co. Ltd mendapat saingan baru. Jabil Circuit, perusahaan manufaktur asal Amerika Serikat siap mengucurkan sedikitnya US$60 juta sebagai investasi tahap awal untuk membangun pabrik original equipment manufacturing (OEM) dan komponen elektronik di Indonesia dalam waktu dekat. Direktur Industri Elektonika dan Telematika Kementerian Perindustrian Triharso mengatakan Jabil diharapkan bisa menjadi salah satu investor yang akan menambah industri elektronika, khususnya industri yang bersifat original equipment manufacturing (OEM). Bahkan, dia memprediksi, Jabil akan lebih dulu merealisasikan investasinya di Indonesia dibandingkan dengan Foxconn. “Rencana investasi Jabil sama dengan Foxconn, jadi dia bangun perusahaan OEM, artinya kalau ada perusahaan elektronik mau buat produk, bisa pesan ke Jabil, mulai dari desain sampai ke manufakturnya. Jadi kaya Foxconn yang buat produk Apple. Investasi US$60 juta hanya awal saja,” jelas Triharso kepada Bisnis, Senin (17/3). Selain itu, Jabil juga akan menjadi alternatif bagi industri lokal yang selama ini impor dari China. “Juga mendorong industri lokal dalam pengembangan produk tekologi digital.” Editor : Setyardi Widodo Fitch prediksi CAD Indonesia di 2014 capai 3,1% Oleh Margareta Engge Kharismawati – Kamis, 13 Maret 2014 | 14:03 WIB kontan JAKARTA. Lembaga pemeringkat utang internasional Fitch Rating melihat current account deficit atawa defisit transaksi berjalan Indonesia akan sulit mencapai target yang ditetapkan. Fitch memprediksi defisit transaksi berjalan Indonesia di tahun 2014 akan sebesar 3,1% dari PDB. Menurut Fitch, pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia yang sebesar 6% dalam pagu Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (APBN) 2014 terlalu optimis. Pertumbuhan yang tinggi tersebut tidak sejalan dengan keinginan menurunkan defisit ke level yang ditargetkan. “Prediksi kita ekonomi Indonesia tahun ini 5,3%,” ujar Presiden Direktur Fitch Rating Kepala Cabang Indonesia Baradita Katoppo yang dijumpai di Seminar Fitch Rating Jakarta, Kamis (13/3). Fitch melihat, shock perdagangan yang terjadi di akhir tahun 2011 akan terus berlanjut dengan dampak yang negatif pada neraca perdagangan. Harga produk-produk komoditas masih akan jatuh. Permintaan komoditas dari China pun akan relatif stabil. Editor: Dikky Setiawan SUN Laris, Bukti Investor Masih Optimistis http://www.inilah.comonFollow (http://www.inilah.comonFollow) on Google+ 1 Headline Ekonom, Faisal Basri – (foto: Riset) Oleh: Wiyanto ekonomi – Minggu, 16 Februari 2014 | 07:36 WIB INILAH.COM, Jakarta – Investor banyak membeli obligasi pemerintah atau Surat Utang Negara (SUN) sebanyak Ro10 triliun pada Januari 2014. Ekonom Faisal Basri mengatakan itu pertanda investor masih yakin dengan masa depan perekonomian Indonesia. “Itu tenornya kan ada yang 30 tahun. Padahal kan investor nggak tahu, bagaimana nasib masa depan Indonesia. Berarti Indonesia masih dipercaya investor,” ujar Faisal usai diskusi nasib Bank Century di Jakarta, Sabtu (15/2/2014). Faisal mengatakan pasar investasi Indonesia terbilang positif. Hal tersebut terlihat pada membaiknya current account defisit atau neraca transaksi berjalan pada kuartal keempat tahun 2013 mencapai 2%. Selain itu dengan semakin surplusnya neraca perdagangan selama tiga periode sepanjang 2013. Bulan Desember 2013, surplus perdagangan mencapai US$1,52 miliar. Menurut Faisal dengan adanya penerbitan surat utang dalam bentuk obligasi, itu adalah sebagai kewajaran. Sebab tanpa utang, akan sulit mendanai banyak rencana pembangunan. “Kapan jadinya jalan, pelabuhan kalau nggak berutang. Padahal rasio utang terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB), naik menjadi 25,2% di 2013 dibandingkan 2012 hanya 24% PDB,” katanya. [hid] Jakarta – Tren penguatan kurs rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat (AS) pada akhir-akhir ini dinilai lebih disebabkan oleh karena adanya penurunan pada defisit neraca transaksi berjalan 2013. Penurunan ini dinilai tidak lepas dari upaya pemerintah yang menjalankan kebijakan untuk memperlambat lajut pertumbuhan ekonomi. Menteri Keuangan Chatib Basri menjelaskan tren penguatan kurs mata uang terhadap dolar AS tidak hanya terjadi pada rupiah, melainkan juga di banyak negara emerging lain seperti, real Brazil, lira Turki dan juga ran Afrika Selatan karena didukung oleh perbaikan kondisi global. Namun, Menkeu mengakui bahwa penguatan rupiah merupakan yang tertinggi dalam negara emerging karena kinerja penurunan defisit yang lebih baik dari prediksi pasar. “Memang yang paling tajam penguatannya di rupiah karena angkanya jauh lebih baik dari yang diperkirakan dari pasar. Sebetulnya sih, ya karena mereka nggak percaya saja bahwa kebijakan pemerintah ini akan efektif. Kalau dilihat lebih tenang, setiap ekonomi kita slow down itu current account defisit nya mengalami penurunan, itu tinggal lihat data di tahun-tahun sebelumnya,” ujar Menkeu dikantornya, Jakarta, Jumat (14/2). Lebih lanjut Menkeu menjelaskan pasar selalu menganggap efek dari kebijakan pemerintah dalam menurunkan defisit neraca transaksi berjalan akan memakan waktu yang sangat lama. Padahal berdasarkan perhitungan pemerintah, dampak kebijakan tersebut bisa terjadi dalam waktu singkat, walaupun diakui pemerintah terkejut dengan hasil yang diluar ekspektasi. Dalam hal ini, katanya, pemerintah sebelumnya memprediksi bahwa defisit neraca transaksi berjalan selama 2013 akan berada disekitar US$ 30 miliar dan ternyata hasilnya mencapai US$28 miliar atau jauh lebih baik dari prediksi. Kendati demikian pemerintah dipastikan akan terus menerapkan kebijakan pengurangan defisit hingga angkanya berada pada level berkelanjutan tanpa menyebutkan targetnya. “Saya terus terang tidak menduga bahwa current account defisit nya bisa dibawah 2% di kuartal IV. Jadi jauh lebih bagus dari yang diperkirakan dan ini juga membuat penguatan rupiahnya cukup tajam. Tapi saya tetap ingin menyampaikan bahwa harus tetap hati-hati dan kita akan terus dengan policy untuk menjaga sampai current account nya ada pada level yang saya boleh katakan itu sustainable,” katanya. Menurut Menkeu, siklus neraca transaksi berjalan pada kuartal I menurun defisitnya, kuartal II defisit akan mengalami peningkatan dan kuartal III serta kuartal IV akan terjadi penurunan lagi. Oleh karena itu, Menkeu memprediksi angka defisit neraca transaksi berjalan pada kuartal II-2014 akan kembali naik sesuai siklus tersebut sehingga pasar diharapkan tidak panik dan menganggap tren naik terus. Menkeu juga memprediksi defisit neraca transaksi berjalan pada tahun ini akan menurun pada kisaran 2-25% sepanjang tahun ini dengan mempertimbangkan dampak kebijakan yang akan diterapkan oleh pemerintah. Dalam hal ini pemerintah dipastikan akan terus menerapkan kebijakan pengurangan impor dengan tetap memperhatikan dampak pada angka pengangguran. “Nanti kuartal II- 2014 jangan kaget current account nya defisitnya akan mengalami peningkatan. Tapi itu temporer karena nanti triwulan III dan IV akan turun, over all nya itu nanti akan pada kisaran bisa 2-2,5% itu sepanjang tahun 2014. Kita akan continue untuk terapkan beberapa policy yang kita buat kemarin untuk kurangi impor karena defisitnya masih diatas 3 %, tapi sampai situasinya itu sudah lebih stabil dalam kisaran 2-2,5 % baru nanti policy itu kita lihat lagi, baru kita evaluasi lagi,” pungkasnya. http://www.beritasatu.com/ekonomi/166330-penurunan-defisit-neraca-transaksi-berjalan-dorong-penguatan-rupiah.html (http://www.beritasatu.com/ekonomi/166330-penurunan-defisitneraca-transaksi-berjalan-dorong-penguatan-rupiah.html) Sumber : BERITASATU.COM Optimisme Pebisnis Turun di Hampir Semua Sektor Sri Mas Sari – Rabu, 05 Februari 2014, 20:51 WIB Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Penurunan tingkat optimisme pelaku bisnis terhadap kondisi perekonomian berlanjut kuartal I/2014 seiring peningkatan harga bahan baku dan biaya produksi akibat pelemahan rupiah. Survei tendensi bisnis yang dilakukan Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) menunjukkan indeks tendensi bisnis kuartal I/2014 hanya 103,93. Penurunan optimisme sebelumnya terjadi kuartal IV/2013 yang 104,72 atau lebih rendah dari kuartal sebelumnya yang 106,12. Penurunan optimisme terjadi pada semua sektor kecuali sektor pertanian, peternakan, kehutanan dan perikanan serta sektor industri pengolahan. “Sektor pertambangan dan penggalian malah menurun dengan indeks 95,4. Indeks di bawah 100 menandakan kondisi bisnis menurun dibandingkan dengan triwulan sebelumnya. Ini berkaitan dengan pelarangan ekspor mineral,” kata Kepala BPS Suryamin, Rabu (5/2/2014). Survei indeks tendensi bisnis dilakukan terhadap 2.300 perusahaan besar dan sedang dengan responden pimpinan perusahaan. Neraca Perdagangan Surplus Tertinggi Sejak 2011 Senin, 3 Februari 2014 | 15:47 investor daily “Surplus perdagangan periode Desember 2013 tersebut merupakan yang tertinggi dalam tiga tahun terakhir setelah surplus 602,6 juta dolar AS pada Desember 2011,” kata Kepala BPS Suryamin, di Gedung BPS, Jakarta, Senin. Menurut Suryamin surplus neraca perdagangan disebabkan surplus pada sektor nonmigas sebesar 2,34 miliar dolar AS, meskipun di sisi lain sektor migas mengalami defisit 0,82 miliar dolar AS. “Surplus nilai perdagangan juga diikuti kenaikan volume perdagangan selama Desember 2013 yang mencapai 56,49 juta ton, selisih antara volume impor sebesar 12,33 miliar ton sedangkan volume ekspor sebesar 68,82 juta ton. Selama Desember 2013, surplus neraca perdagangan Indonesia tertolong oleh kenaikan surplus nonmigas yang mencapai 2,34 miliar dolar AS, selisih antara ekspor sebesar 13,58 miliar dolar AS dengan impor 11,24 miliar dolar AS. Suryamin menjelaskan, ekspor nonmigas selama Desember 2013 sebesar 13,58 miliar dolar AS dibandingkan dengan periode November 2013 meningkat sebesar 3,09 persen dari sebelumnya senilai 13,17 miliar dolar AS. Peningkatan ekspor nonmigas dipicu melonjaknya sejumlah komoditi seperti bijih, kerak, dan abu logam yang melonjak 40,18 persen (975,7 juta dolar AS), disusul ekspor pakaian jadi bukan rajutan sebesar 29,39 persen (353,3 juta dolar AS), kendaraan dan bagiannya melonjak 7,18 persen (362,8 juta dolar AS). Berdasarkan negara tujuan, ekspor nonmigas pada Desember 2013 terbesar masih ke tiga negara yaitu China, Jepang dan Amerika Serikat masing-masing 2,36 miliar dolar AS, 1,4 miliar dolar AS, dan 1,3 miliar dolar AS, yang pangsa pasar ketiganya mencapai 37,19 persen dari total ekspor nonmigas. Peningkatan ekspor nonmigas tertinggi terjadi ke Singapura senilai 309,2 juta dolar AS (43,76 persen), disusul ekspor ke Korea Selatan 81,3 juta dolar AS (17,97 persen), ke Perancis dengan kenaikan 9,1 juta dolar AS (11,23 persen), China 151,4 juta dolar AS (6,85 persen), Amerika Serikat 85,9 juta dolar AS (7,14 persen). Di sisi lain diutarakan Suryamin, upaya pemerintah meningkatkan pasar ekspor belum diikuti penurunan nilai impor secara signifikan. Selama Desember 2013 nilai impor nasional mencapai 15,46 miliar dolar AS, naik 2,04 persen dari periode November 2013 sebesar 15,15 miliar dolar AS. Sedangkan dibandingkan Desember 2012, impor periode Desember 2013 turun hanya 0,79 persen. Lima golongan barang yang mengalami penurunan nilai impor yaitu mesin dan peralatan listrik sebesar 113 juta dolar AS (turun 7,85 persen), mesin dan peralatan mekanik 102,1 juta dolar AS (4,17 persen). Nilai impor nonmigas terbesar masih berasal dari negara ASEAN yang mencapai 2,23 miliar dolar AS (20,13 persen), dan dari negara-negara Uni Eropa 1,03 miliar dolar AS (9,20 persen). Pada saat yang bersamaan, meningkatnya nilai impor disebabkan naiknya impor migas sebesar 283,1 juta dolar AS (7,19 persen) yang dipicu naiknya nilai impor hasil minyak dan gas masing-masing sebesar 148,4 juta (5,71 persen), dan 189,7 juta dolar AS (91,47 persen). Sebaliknya, impor minyak mentah turun 44 juta dolar AS atau 4,86 persen.(ant/hrb) Kinerja Manufaktur RI Membaik, Indeks PMI Naik John Andhi Oktaveri – Senin, 03 Februari 2014, 12:14 WIB Bisnis.com, JAKARTA— Indeks pembelian manufaktur (PMI) HSBC untuk Indonesia naik tipis selama Januari 2014, namun memicu kekhawatiran pengetatan yang dilakukan Bank Indonesia tidak akan berhasil secepat yang diharapkan, menurut bank tersebut hari ini. Indeks tersebut naik 51,0 selama Januari dari posisi 50,9 selama Desember yang menunjukkan terjadi perbaikan dalam hal kondisi operasi sektor manufaktur. “Perbaikan PMI yang cukup moderat menunjukkan gejala positif bagi sektor manufaktur,” ujar ekonom HSBC Su Sian Lim sebagaimana dikutip situs berita 4-traders.com, Senin (3/2/2014). Namun Lim menegaskan bahwa lonjakan yang terjadi pada Januari atas pesanan baru didorong oleh permintaan domestik, bukan dari luar sehingga bank sentral Indonesia dinilai harus tetap “waspada”. Angka di bawah 50 dalam PMI menunjukkan kontraksi dalam aktivitas manufaktur, sedangkan angka di atas 50 menunjukkan ekspansi. Indonesia akan menghadapi pemilihan umum (Pemilu) tahun ini. Pemilu dinilai tidak akan mengganggu perekenomian Indonesia. Hal itu terlihat dari sejarah Pemilu di Indonesia. Mantan Wakil Presiden Indonesia Jusuf Kalla (JK) mengatakan, Indonesia akan mengalami pemilu yang ke-10. Selama 60 tahun, pemilu hampir seluruhnya terjadi dalam damai. “Tak ada konflik besar. Hanya pada 1982 di Jakarta dan 1987 di Banjarmasin yang konflik,” ujarnya. Oleh karena itu, menurutnya, adanya kekhawatiran bahwa pemilu akan mengganggu ekonomi, sedikit berlebihan. Apalagi, menurut JK, pemerintahan baru yang akan terpilih pada pemilu kali ini tidak akan mengubah kebijakan ekonomi yang diterapkan di Indonesia. Dia mengatakan, siapa pun pemerintahnya akan sangat pragmatis. “Tak mudah untuk mengambil kebijakan ekstrem. Kadang-kadang kebijakan ekstrem itu hanya dilakukan selama dua tahun dari lima tahun,” ujarnya. Masyarakat pun jangan mengharapkan pemerintah akan mengambil kebijakan yang tidak pro-rakyat, seperti menaikkan bahan bakar minyak (BBM). Ia mengatakan, tidak mudah untuk meminta calon presiden mengungkapkan kebijakan ekonomi secara gamblang, terlebih lagi untuk kebijakan yang tidak populis. Namun, pemerintahan yang baru diharapkan berani mengubah Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (APBN) yang tengah mengalami defisit. Menurutnya, sistem ekonomi di Indonesia mengalami hal yang dilematis. Sistem ekonomi mengikuti sistem politik yang terbuka, tetapi Indonesia memiliki subsidi yang tinggi. “Siapa pun boleh masuk ke Indonesia, tapi di lain pihak APBN sangat berat dengan anggaran yang penuh subsidi. Ruang pemerintah mengambil kebijakan sempit sekali,” ujar dia. Belanja pemerintah pusat pada 2014 terdiri atas belanja pegawai Rp 263,977 triliun, belanja barang Rp 201,88 triliun, belanja modal Rp 205,84 triliun, pembayaran bunga utang Rp 121,28 triliun, dan subsidi energi sebesar Rp 282,1 triliun. Belanja subsidi energi terdiri atas BBM Rp 210,7 triliun dan listrik Rp 71,4 triliun. Angka subsidi BBM jauh lebih tinggi dibandingkan pada 2013 yang mencapai Rp 199,7 triliun. JK mengatakan, subsidi memang penting. Namun, bila porsinya 20 persen dari APBN, itu cukup berat. Subsidi yang besar membuat negara tidak akan dapat memperbaiki jalan atau lingkungan. Menurutnya, subsidi yang ideal adalah sebesar 10 persen dari APBN. Cara mengurangi subsidi tersebut adalah dengan mencabut subsidi BBM dan tidak menambah biaya dana dan pegawai pemerintah. “Kita tak bisa potong gaji, biaya kesehatan, dan pendidikan. Yang bisa dipotong yang mengurangi kesenangan orang mampu,” tegas dia. Ekonom dari Standard Chartered Fauzi Ichsan menambahkan, kebijakan ekonomi yang akan diambil pemerintah baru masih akan bergantung pada defisit transaksi berjalan. Setidaknya untuk dua hingga tiga tahun ke depan. Ia menilai, salah satu cara yang tepat untuk menekan defisit adalah mengurangi subsidi BBM. Namun, hal itu tidak bisa segera dilakukan karena bukan kebijakan yang populis. Ekspor juga akan sulit untuk memperbaiki defisit tersebut. Ekspor Indonesia didominasi oleh komoditas. Sedangkan harga komoditas saat ini tengah anjlok. “Artinya, untuk mengurangi defisit transaksi berjalan tersebut impor harus dikurangi. Caranya dengan menaikkan suku bunga,” ujarnya. n ed: fitria andayani http://www.republika.co.id/berita/koran/news-update/14/01/27/n027zb-tantangan-ekonomi-di-tahun-pemilu (http://www.republika.co.id/berita/koran/news-update/14/01/27/n027zb-tantanganekonomi-di-tahun-pemilu) Sumber : REPUBLIKA.CO.ID xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Menyambung dari tulisan saya sebelumnya bahwa theme of the year saya di tahun 2014 alias kata kuncinya adalah Likuiditas. Mengapa? Dengan puluhan bahkan ratusan triliun rupiah yang mungkin saja digelontorkan oleh calon legislatif DPR-RI, DPRD Tingkat I Propinsi, dan DPRD Tingkat II Kabupaten/Kota, belum lagi dana yang akan dikeluarkan pasangan Calon Presiden dan Wakil Presiden dalam bentuk kampanye dan lain-lain, maka secara teori ekonomi salah satu yang mungkin bisa menyebabkan inflasi terjadi di Indonesia adalah jumlah uang beredar di masyarakat yang akan meningkat. Lalu apa efeknya dengan keuangan kita? Ketika uang beredar naik yang mungkin saja bisa menyebabkan inflasi naik (mudah-mudahan saya salah dan tidak terjadi), hal yang biasanya dilakukan oleh otoritas moneter, dalam hal ini Bank Indonesia (BI), salah satunya adalah menaikan suku bunga apakah suku bunga SBI maupun BI Rate. Nah, kenaikan suku bunga ini biasanya langsung direspons oleh bank-bank untuk menaikan suku bunga pinjaman. Akibatnya apa? Bunga pinjaman Anda, selama tidak ada perjanjian bunga fixed, misalnya bunga KPR akan naik. Yang akan Anda rasakan adalah cicilan KPR Anda berlahan-lahan akan mulai naik. Hal ini dapat menjadi berbahaya, ketika sebelumnya rasio cicilan Anda sudah mentok di 30% dengan menggunakan perhitungan cicilan sebelumnya, maka dengan kenaikan cicilan ini maka rasionya pun juga akan ikutan naik di atas 30%. Ketika rasio cicilan ini naik, maka dalam banyak kasus keluarga akan mulai mengalami kesulitan untuk membayar cicilan yang bisa berdampak kesulitan secara keuangan keseluruhan, so berhati-hatilah. Efek lain dari kenaikan suku bunga ini adalah, apabila ternyata kenaikannya cukup tinggi (misalnya double digit), hal ini bisa saja berdampak kepada orang-orang yang ingin membeli rumah baru, mereka akan menghitung ulang dan berpikir ulang apabila ternyata cicilan KPR-nya akan menjadi mahal dan di luar batas kemampuan mereka. Akibatnya, bisa jadi penjualan properti baru akan melambat atau bahkan stagnan. Di saat yang bersamaan apabila ada orang BU alias butuh uang dan kondisi memaksa mereka melepas uang, maka mau tidak mau bisa saja mereka menjual dengan harga yang lebih murah dari harga pasar. Akibatnya dalam jangka panjang bisa saja memicu penurunan harga properti yang saat ini sudah “bubble” di beberapa lokasi. Kondisi lain yang berpotensi terjadi adalah, ketika kondisi politik tidak stabil besar atau kecil akan berdampak pada kondisi ekonomi. Asing akan melihat ketidakstabilan ini dan semakin keluar dari Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) yang bisa menimbulkan potensi penurunan di Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG). Penurunan IHSG secara otomatis akan berdampak ke penurunan juga di reksa dana (terutama Reksa Dana Saham dan Reksa Dana Campuran). Jadi, siap-siap saja apabila investasi Anda juga akan ikutan turun selama masa-masa ini ya. So pertanyaannya adalah apakah ini sebuah bencana? Apakah Indonesia akan masuk ke krisis lagi? Bagaimana sih kita menyikapinya? Ingat kembali kata kuncinya adalah Likuiditas, seperti apa? Baca di tulisan berikutnya. Sumber: detikcom Indonesia Facing Populace Larger Than U.S. Revives Birth Control By Shamim Adam, Berni Moestafa and Novrida Manurung Jan 28, 2014 12:01 AM GMT+0700 A family travels on motorcycle in Jakarta. Indonesia’s population growth rate remained… Read More Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono wants families to stop at two children to prevent a burgeoning population overwhelming schools and services. Asih, a cleaner in Tangerang, near Jakarta, is stopping at seven. “In my family, we always had a lot of children, and as long as we still had something to eat, why do family planning?” said Asih, 35. “Now I have two children in primary school and more that will have to go in the next few years and I have no money to pay school fees. Seven kids are enough.” Facing slower investment and one of the highest youth unemployment rates in the Asia-Pacific region, the government is concerned the demographic dividend that attracts companies seeking a young, cheap workforce will become an economic time bomb. As Indonesia’s growth slows, the world’s fourth-most-populous nation isn’t generating enough quality jobs to keep up with the population, the International Labour Organization said. That prospect has brought the revival of a birth-control program begun 46 years ago by former President Suharto, who managed to halve the fertility rate to about 2.6, where it’s been stuck ever since. The government wants to cut the rate to the replacement level of 2.1 within two years to prevent the 250 million population doubling by 2060. “We have to go back to the policies of the Suharto era, to make strong campaigns and bring the fertility rate down,” said M Sairi Hasbullah, head of Indonesia’s statistics bureau for East Java province. “It’s not going to be easy to provide food, education, health facilities and infrastructure for 500 million people. It’s a big danger for Indonesia.” Muslim Clerics The government increased the budget for family planning programs almost fourfold since 2006, to 2.6 trillion rupiah ($214 million) in 2013, funding everything from training rural midwives via text messages, to persuading Muslim clerics to encourage vasectomies. The measures extend efforts dating back to 1968, when Suharto set up the National Family Planning Institute to provide advice and contraceptives. While Southeast Asia’s largest economy is trying to slow population growth, other countries in the region are trying to increase it. Singapore offers cash handouts and extended maternity leave to encourage its citizens to have more kids, while China has loosened its 34-year-old one-child policy that has saddled the nation with an aging labor force. “Indonesia is seen by other countries as an opportunity because of its population,” said Aris Ananta, who has published books on Indonesian demographics and is currently a senior research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore. “It’s an asset. The government is shifting its responsibilities if it’s blaming population growth” for a failure to provide enough infrastructure or jobs, he said. About 19.6 percent of Indonesian youths between the ages of 15 and 24 were jobless in 2012, compared with about 16 percent in the Philippines, according to the ILO. Unemployment, inflation and the so-called youth bulge, a phenomenon where a large share of the population is comprised of children and young adults, contributed to the Arab Spring protests that ousted leaders in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt in 2011. Indonesia’s labor force will grow 11.2 percent this decade through 2020, while its population will increase about 11.5 percent, according to Bank of America Corp. The high proportion of young adults — about 50 percent of Indonesians are aged below 30 — has attracted companies such as L’Oreal SA, the world’s largest cosmetics maker, which opened its biggest factory globally in West Java in 2012 to supply products to Southeast Asia. Buying BMWs Bayerische Motoren Werke AG, the world’s biggest maker of luxury vehicles, invested 8 million euros ($11 million) in 2011 to expand its capacity in Indonesia, where it assembles models such as the 5-series and 3-series. “The advantages of operating in Indonesia include its current economic growth and investment potential,” said Jodie O’tania, head of corporate communications at BMW’s Indonesian unit. “Its middle class has grown, and continues to grow, substantially.” Indonesians are using a bigger percentage of their paychecks on non-food items, government data showed. Average non-food household expenditure was 52.3 percent in September 2012, from 37.1 percent in 1999. “The demographic dividend is a positive thing for countries, it’s a question of what you do with that population,” Rajat Nag, former managing director-general of the Asian Development Bank, said in an interview on Nov. 22. Learning Curve Indonesia’s population growth rate remained at 1.49 percent for the decade ending 2010, according to the latest figures published by its statistics office. At that rate, the nation would overtake the U.S. as the world’s third-most-populous country by 2043, based on predictions by the U.S. Census Bureau and Bloomberg calculations. China and India have the biggest populations. While the rising supply of factory workers appeals to investors, it means the government has to direct more of its resources on education. Public spending on education as a percentage of government expenditure rose to about 17 percent in 2010 from 11.5 percent in 2001, according to the United Nations. The government, which rolled out a national health insurance program on Jan. 1, is extending free family planning nationwide in 2014 from seven of 33 provinces previously. About half of Indonesian women of reproductive age use contraception and 90 percent of those said they paid for it, according to official data. Contraceptive Injections Asih, the mother of seven, is among them. After her third child she tried injections — the most common form of female contraception in the country — because the pill made her sick. At 15,000 rupiah a shot, she couldn’t afford to keep taking them and in the following years, she had four more children. “The government’s goal is to try to shift the mix away from short-term methods to longer-term ones,” said Todd Callahan, Indonesian country director of DKT International, one of the largest private providers of contraceptives and family planning services in the developing world. “To change the trends in usage is going to need a few years.” The government must also overcome cultural and religious barriers. The National Family Planning Coordination Board, which has a campaign with the slogan “Two Children Are Enough,” said in July it’s working with Muhammadiyah, one of Indonesia’s largest Muslim groups, to open centers in high schools and colleges that will discuss family planning and sexual reproductive health. Religious Hurdle “In some circles, the thinking remains that if couples follow family planning, they aren’t being grateful to God,” said Emi Nurjasmi, head of the Indonesian Midwives Association, which has more than 250,000 members. She said the midwives try to change people’s attitude as well as administering injections and inserting intrauterine devices. In a religious school, or madrasah, in Lamongan in East Java province, Ainul Fahri, 17, says sex education was non-existent until a non-government organization for women’s rights persuaded four local schools to introduce the subject. “Even though this is a madrasah there are cases of early pregnancies,” Fahri said. “People here are completely in the dark about sex education.” Plans to slow population growth may see most resistance in rural areas where bigger families mean more farmhands and support for parents in their old age. “There was family planning back in Suharto’s time and some of my neighbors took part, but I thought that having more children is better,” said Ikrar, a father of 11 who grows organic vegetables in Cibuntu village in Sukabumi, one of the two least-developed regencies in West Java. Urban Cost That view is changing as more Indonesians leave plantations to work in the towns and cities and rising prices sap their ability to raise and school large families. Ikrar’s seventh child, 28-yearold Wahyu, has only one kid. With an income of 15,000 rupiah a day from cutting flowers for shops in Jakarta, he eats mostly rice and dried fish and saves what little he can for his dream of opening a shop selling motorcycle parts. “With only 15,000 rupiah a day, it’s hardly enough to raise one child,” said Wahyu. “Life is harder now.” Indonesia’s inflation has remained above 8 percent for the past six months as the government cut fuel subsidies that account for about one-tenth of its expenditure. “There is a saying in Indonesia: ‘Many children, many blessings,’” said DKT’s Callahan. “In Jakarta, it’s ‘many children, many expenses.’ ” Heru Purnomo, who works at a courier service in the capital, said he doesn’t plan to have more than two. “Competition is tight,” said Purnomo, 25. “Now, people have to have a high level of education to get a job. If you have too many children, you get left behind.” Presiden: PDB Indonesia Melesat, Tempati 15 Besar Ekonomi Dunia Ismail Fahmi – Kamis, 09 Januari 2014, 08:25 WIB cadangan devisa kita MENGUAT, n katanya: PAKET KEBIJAKAN EKONOMI ATASI KRISIS MINI efektif (http://wp.me/pvbrr-1WN) Bisnis.com, JAKARTA–Presiden Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono mengungkapkan Product Domestic Bruto (PDB) Indonesia terus melesat dan kini menempati 15 besar ekonomi dunia. “Alhamdulillah, PDB Indonesia menempati 15 besar ekonomi dunia,” kata Presiden SBY melalui akun twitternya @SBYudhoyono, yang diunggahnya Rabu (8/1). Pada kultwit itu, Presiden SBY juga melampirkan pertumbuhan PDB Indonesia sejak periode 1945-1965 sampai periode 2009-sekarang, yang peningkatannya jauh melesat pada periode 2004-2009 dan 2009-sekarang. Jika periode 1945-1965, PDB Indonesia mencapai Rp 23,71 triliun, periode 1965-2000 sebesar Rp 955,75 triliun, periode 2000-2004 menjadi Rp 2.295,82 triliun, maka pada periode 2004-2009 melesat menjadi Rp 5.613,4 triliun, dan periode 2009-sekarang lebih melesat lagi menjadi Rp 8.241,86
Menerbitkan obligasi global berdenominasi dolar AS tahun ini, bahkan dalam denominasi rupiah sekalipun, memang berisiko. Dari sisi internal, fundamental ekonomi kita sedang menghadapi ujian berat, terutama dari defisit neraca perdagangan yang menyebabkan nilai tukar rupiah terus tertekan. Demi menyelamatkan rupiah yang terdepresiasi kelewat dalam, pemerintah dan Bank Indonesia (BI) terpaksa memperlambat laju pertumbuhan ekonomi dan sektor riil dengan menaikkan suku bunga guna mengerem konsumsi. Tahun ini, Indonesia juga bakal ‘dipanaskan’ oleh ingar-bingar Pemilu 2014 yang bisa menyebabkan risiko negara (country risk) Indonesia naik. Tapi, akhirnya kita bisa memahami langkah pemerintah. Selain merupakan bagian dari program global medium term notes (GMTN) yang totalnya mencapai US$ 25 miliar, emisi obligasi global senilai US$ 2 miliar itu sejatinya adalah strategi menjaring dolar yang sedang ‘bermigrasi’ dari negara-negara emerging market, termasuk Indonesia, ke Negeri Paman Sam setelah ekonomi negara itu menunjukkan tanda-tanda pemulihan. Mumpung belum diinvestasikan secara permanen, dana-dana itu harus ditangkap dulu. Kita juga maklum bahwa menerbitkan obligasi global saat ini adalah keputusan cerdik. Selagi ekonomi AS belum pulih dan para pelaku pasar masih galau terhadap prospek ekonomi dunia, kita perlu mencuri ‘start’. Dengan iming-iming kupon dan imbal hasil (yield) lebih atraktif, SUN RI tentu menjadi pilihan investasi yang menarik. Investor yang berpikir rasional bakal menjatuhkan pilihan pada SUN seri RI0124 dan RI0144 yang menawarkan kupon 5,875-6,750% dengan yield 5,950-6,850% ketimbang SUN AS yang mematok kupon 2,750-3,750 dengan yield di bawah 4% untuk tenor yang sama. Bukan tanpa alasan pula jika pemerintah agresif menghimpun dolar AS. Indonesia sedang membutuhkan Greenback. Gara-gara neraca transaksi berjalan (current account) defisit, terutama akibat neraca perdagangan yang minus, pasokan dolar di dalam negeri menjadi seret. Tak pelak, rupiah tahun lalu terdepresiasi hingga 26%. Rupiah kian haru-biru setelah berembus isu bank sentral AS, The Fed, bakal menghapus stimulus moneter. Isu ini memicu gelombang penarikan dana besar-besaran dari emerging market ke AS. Walau akhirnya The Fed mengurangi stimulus secara bertahap, pelarian modal kadung terjadi. Kita bersyukur, dalam kondisi sulit, SUN valas laku keras di pasar. Kondisi itu makin menyadarkan kita bahwa investor asing tetap menganggap Indonesia sebagai tujuan investasi yang menjanjikan, sekalipun masih bermasalah dengan nilai tukar dan neraca perdagangan. Besarnya animo investor asing juga menunjukkan tingginya kepercayaan mereka terhadap pengelolaan utang dan anggaran yang diterapkan pemerintah. Kita percaya utang pemerintah yang mencapai 26% terhadap produk domestik bruto (PDB) masih terkelola dengan baik (manageable), apalagi rasionya jauh lebih rendah dibanding negaranegara lain. APBN juga masih terkelola secara hati-hati (prudent) dan berkesinambungan (sustainable) dengan defisit yang –lagi-lagi— jauh lebih kecil dari negara-negara lain. Itu sebabnya, utang pemerintah mendapat rating BBB- dengan prospek stable dari lembaga pemeringkat internasional Fitch Ratings, BB+ (stable) dari Standard and Poor’s/S&P, dan Baa3 (stable) dari Moody’s Investors Service. Tapi kita tak boleh terbuai oleh tingginya kepercayaan investor asing. Berbagai risiko masih mengadang. Pemerintah perlu membangun benteng pertahanan yang lebih kokoh. Penguatan rupiah harus menjadi prioritas agar mata uang NKRI itu kembali ke nilai wajarnya. Rupiah yang tak bertenaga akan membuat keropos sendi-sendi perekonomian nasional. Tingginya ketergantungan kita terhadap produk impor menjadikan ekonomi Indonesia rentan digoyang inflasi akibat kenaikan harga produk impor (imported inflation). Inilah yang antara lain memaksa BI berkali-kali menaikkan BI rate dan mengeluarkan berbagai instrumen moneter untuk menambah likuiditas dolar di dalam negeri —selain meredam inflasi. Ini pula yang mengakibatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan sektor riil seperti ‘dikorbankan’. Pemerintah juga harus memperkuat fundamental industri nasional dengan membangun industri dasar dan industri barang modal. Langkah lain yang perlu ditempuh adalah mengurangi konsumsi BBM dan mengantisipasi crash industri tambang mineral sehubungan bakal dilarang atau dibatasinya ekspor bahan mineral. Di luar itu semua, pemerintah dan segenap komponen bangsa tentu harus bersama-sama menjaga agar Pemilu 2014 berlangsung aman, lancar, serta menghasilkan pemimpin unggul yang dapat membawa bangsa ini ke era gemah ripah loh jinawi. Survei Konsumen Oktober 2013 yang dilakukan Bank Indonesia menunjukkan pertumbuhan tahunan Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen (IKK) Oktober 2013 masih negatif 8,4% (year-on-year), meski secara bulanan telah mencatat pertumbuhan positif dari 107,1 pada September menjadi 109,5 pada Oktober. Hal tersebut mengindikasikan pertumbuhan konsumsi rumah tangga masih belum kuat. Belum kuatnya keyakinan konsumen terutama dipengaruhi Indeks Kondisi Ekonomi Saat Ini yang masih pesimistis terhadap konsumsi barang tahan lama dan penghasilan. (ift/uth) Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen Mulai Menguat Ringkang Gumiwang – Selasa, 05 November 2013, 21:05 WIB Bisnis.com, JAKARTA—Indeks ekonomi saat ini cenderung melandai meski indeks keyakinan konsumen (IKK) pada Oktober 2013 meningkat menjadi 109,5 dibandingkan dengan bulan sebelumnya 107,1. Berdasarkan survei dari Bank Indonesia, Senin (04/11/2013), optimisme konsumen mulai menguat pada Oktober 2013, setelah mengalami tren perlambatan selama 3 bulan terakhir pasca kenaikan harga BBM pada Juni lalu. Kendati demikian IKK Oktober 2013 masih jauh lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan IKK Oktober 2012 yang mencapai 119,5. Adapun, indeks ekspektasi konsumen (IEK) naik menjadi 113,7 dari 108,6. Sejalan dengan itu, Bank Indonesia juga memperkirakan optimisme konsumen hingga 6 bulan mendatang masih akan meningkat baik dari sisi penghasilan, ketersediaan lapangan kerja hingga kegiatan usaha seiring digelarnya pemilu legislatif. Secara regional, dari 18 kota yang disurvei sebanyak 11 kota mengalami kenaikan IKK dengan peningkatan indeks tertinggi di Manado sebesar 13 poin dan Samarinda 11 poin. Sementara berdasarkan kelompok, kenaikan IKK tertinggi terjadi pada kelompok responden yang memiliki tingkat pengeluaran Rp4 juta-Rp5 juta per bulan. (ra) Oktober 2013, indeks keyakinan konsumen menguat Oleh Margareta Engge Kharismawati – Selasa, 05 November 2013 | 16:16 WIB kontan catatan INVESTASI @IHSG SUPERJANGKAPANJANG sejak 2000 s/d 2013, sebagai INDIKATOR IMBAL HASIL INVESTASI REKSA DANA SAHAM kita (http://investasireksadanaindonesia09.blogspot.com/2013/11/what-if-lama-investasi-reksa-dana-saham.html) JAKARTA. Setelah mengalami tren perlambatan selama tiga bulan terakhir pasca kenaikan harga bahan bakar minyak (BBM) bersubsidi, Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen (IKK) Indonesia mulai menguat. Pada Oktober 2013, IKK sedikit meningkat menjadi 109,5. Sebelumnya, pada September 2013 keyakinan konsumen bertengger di posisi 107,1. Namun, IKK di Oktober 2013 ini masih jauh lebih rendah dibanding IKK periode yang sama tahun lalu yang mencapai 119,5. Berdasarkan survei konsumen yang dirilis oleh Bank Indonesia (BI) Senin kemarin (4/11), optimisme konsumen yang mulai menguat ini didorong oleh kenaikan Indeks Ekspetasi Konsumen (IEK) dari 108,6 menjadi 113,7. Kenaikan ini seiring dengan membaiknya keyakinan konsumen terhadap kondisi ekonomi enam bulan mendatang. Di sisi lain, Indeks Kondisi Ekonomi (IKE) mengalami penurunan. Apabila di September 2013 mencapai 105,7, di Oktober 2013 turun 0,4% menjadi 105,3. “Karena pesimisme dalam konsumsi barang tahan lama dan penghasilan,” seperti dikutip dalam rilis. Kepala Ekonom Bank Tabungan Negara (BTN) A. Prasentyantoko berpendapat, kenaikan indeks keyakinan konsumen ini belum dapat menjadi indikasi penguatan ke depan. Karena kenaikan yang terjadi di Oktober belum signifikan. Seharusnya berdasarkan tren, IKK di akhir tahun akan mengalami peningkatan yang signifikan, namun berbeda kondisinya dengan tahun ini. Menurut Prasentyantoko, kenaikan IKK pada Oktober lalu karena kondisi makro Indonesia relatif stabil. Tekanan inflasi yang mereda dan permasalahan global khususnya Amerika Serikat (AS) yang relatif teratasi. “Ke depannya, potensi penurunan bisa terjadi lagi. Terutama, jika situasi global menunjukkan pemburukan,” tandas Prasentyantoko. Jika kondisi global itu kembali bergejolak, lanjut dia, akan membuat neraca perdagangan Indonesia tertekan dan berujung pada tertekannya nilai tukar rupiah. Alhasil, IKK pun akan kembali merosot. Di sisi lain, menurut Kepala Ekonom Mandiri Destry Damayanti, naiknya IKK ini sebagai hal yang positif. Artinya, konsumsi masyarakat masih tetap stabil dan masih menjadi salah satu pendorong ekonomi Indonesia. Apalagi, inflasi di tahun 2014 mendatang akan jauh lebih rendah dibanding tahun ini. “Mencerminkan konsumen kita masih sangat nyaman untuk spending enam bulan ke depan,” tutur Destry. Ke depannya, Destry memproyeksi, tren IKK akan stabil dan tidak akan mengalami peningkatan yang signifikan. Investasi yang melemah dan berimbas pada pemutusan hubungan kerja masih membayangi perekonomian. Indonesia Finance Chief Basri Cuts 2013 Growth Forecast Ministry Estimates Economy Will Grow 5.8% By BEN OTTO and TOM WRIGHT CONNECT Oct. 31, 2013 3:10 a.m. ET JAKARTA—Indonesia’s finance minister Thursday reduced his growth projection for the country, as higher interest rates and a tepid global view continue to cloud the country’s economic outlook. Chatib Basri, in an interview, also welcomed the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision Wednesday not to begin winding down its massive monetary stimulus program. The U.S.’s decision to keep its $85-billion-a-month bond-buying program in place to help the U.S. economy also aids Indonesia by keeping global interest rates low, Mr. Basri said. Indonesia’s rupiah currency and its stock and bond markets have been under pressure since the summer as foreign capital retrenched from emerging economies in anticipation of higher U.S. rates. Local markets have stabilized in recent weeks, as the U.S. economic picture has remained uncertain and the Fed has decided not to tinker with its easy monetary policies. This gives Indonesia more time to push through changes aimed at attracting investment, which will leave the country in better stead when global financing conditions become more difficult, Mr. Basri said. “To me this is good news. It gives more time for Indonesia to do structural reforms,” he said. Mr. Basri said Indonesia’s growth outlook has worsened. The ministry now estimates the economy will grow 5.8% in 2013, down 0.2 percentage point from a projection last week and lower than a 6.3% forecast in the nation’s budget. Indonesia is the latest emerging market to slash its growth forecast as China’s growth slows and demand in industrialized countries remains tepid. Indonesia’s central bank has been forced to raise rates aggressively to attract foreign capital and damp consumer inflation of more than 8%. The tighter policy has slowed an economy that regularly grew more than 6% in recent years, fueled in part by easy global credit and large exports of commodities to China. Both those tailwinds have abated, leaving Indonesia looking at lower growth for the foreseeable future, Mr. Basri said. He added that recent foreign direct investment numbers were disappointing. Mr. Basri, though, challenged the International Monetary Fund’s somber assessment of the economy. The fund recently downgraded its growth forecast for Indonesia this year to 5.25%, with a current-account deficit of 3.5% of gross domestic product. He agrees with the current-account deficit projection but said it isn’t consistent with such slow growth. The current account largely measures flows of exports and imports. Indonesia runs a large deficit as it imports massive amounts of oil and machinery to fuel growth and other consumer goods. Mr. Basri said such large imports point toward greater economic activity than in the IMF’s scenario. The finance minister has been championing policies aimed at improving the investment environment in Indonesia. The country, he argues, needs to attract more foreign investment to make it less reliant on short-term foreign capital to finance its current-account deficit. Jakarta will unveil policies soon that allow foreign investors to put money in a wider range of local industries, Mr. Basri said, but declined to give details. Another government official said the country was looking at allowing foreigners to invest more in horticulture and courier services. Since coming to office in May, Mr. Basri, a trained economist, has pushed through some changes to policies that foreign investors had criticized. They include repealing quotas on some agricultural product imports such as beef and vegetables, which were meant to protect local producers. He also has championed Indonesia’s decision in the summer to sharply reduce costly fuel subsidies. Mr. Basri said he was able to convince his government colleagues to back some of these politically unpopular measures because of the uncertain global environment. But he acknowledged that with presidential elections next year, some of the economic overhauls may be hard to achieve. Critics say Indonesia’s government under President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who has been in power for almost 10 years, lurched toward economic nationalism during the years of high growth. “The good times make bad policies,” Mr. Basri acknowledged. He defended the government’s goal of forcing mining companies to do more processing of raw materials onshore. The government is planning to ban exports of a range of commodities from January unless producers can show plans to build processing capacity. But Mr. Basri said the government would perhaps be better not to fully implement the ban now, at a time of great uncertainty in financial markets and a weak outlook for Indonesia’s commodity exports as China’s demand reduces. “The question is about timing,” he said. 25. October 2013, 14:17:51 SGT Pemilu Asia Hambat Reformasi Ekonomi oleh Natasha Brereton-Fukui wsj Keputusan bank sentral Amerika Serikat Federal Reserve untuk mempertahankan kebijakan easy money memberikan peluang bagi Asia guna bersiap menghadapi arus penarikan modal asing di masa mendatang. Meski demikian, pemilihan umum yang akan datang di sejumlah negara Asia berpotensi mengeruhkan situasi. Menjelang pemilu, pemerintah enggan mengambil kebijakan tegas yang dibutuhkan agar ekonomi mereka lebih tahan terhadap selloff. REUTERS Kemacetan di Jakarta. Subsidi BBM mungkin bisa merebut suara rakyat dalam pemilu, namun berpotensi menggoyahkan keuangan pemerintah. Indonesia dan India dijadwalkan menggelar pemilihan umumnya tahun depan: April dan Juli di Indonesia, dan akhir Mei untuk India. Kedua negara Asia ini paling dirugikan saat investor menarik asetnya keluar dari negara berkembang sebagai antisipasi rencana Fed mengurangi stimulusnya. Ekonomi India dan Indonesia tumbuh pesat saat kredit global masih murah dan ekonomi Cina menanjak. Kini, investor terpaksa menuntut kedua negara itu lebih produktif sebelum mereka berinvestasi. Program subsidi besar-besaran untuk bahan bakar minyak dan makanan bakal mengurangi alokasi anggaran untuk infrastruktur dan pendidikan, dua faktor yang dapat meningkatkan produktivitas dalam jangka panjang. Subsidi juga bisa membengkak dengan cepat ke level yang tak bisa dipertahankan, sehingga membuat investor ragu soal tanggung jawab fiskal pemerintah. Subsidi di negara-negara berkembang seperti India dan Indonesia dirancang untuk melindungi warga miskin, sekaligus memenangkan suara mereka. Subsidi sudah menjadi bagian dari kebijakan ekonomi dan perannya terus meluas, sehingga menghapusnya bukanlah tugas mudah. “Walaupun ada subsidi BBM dan listrik dari pemerintah, saya terkadang masih harus meminjam uang tetangga,” ujar Yusuf Setiawan, kurir pengiriman barang di Jakarta yang gaji per bulannya sekitar Rp2 juta. Yusuf mengatakan subsidi ini membantunya memenuhi kebutuhan dua anaknya yang masih kecil. “Saya tidak akan memilih partai yang akan mengurangi subsidi,” katanya. Masalah ini tidak dirasa mendesak saat harga minyak dan makanan murah, serta beban utang pemerintah masih ringan. Namun seiring dengan membengkaknya subsidi, masalah pun makin parah. Di India dan Indonesia, subsidi memakan sekitar 2% total anggaran nasional. Bloomberg News Menyortir bawang di India. Menjelang pemilu, pemerintah negara berkembang enggan mengurangi subsidi lantaran takut kehilangan pemilih. India telah melangkah maju dengan mengurangi subsidi BBM dalam beberapa tahun terakhir. Pemerintah negara itu melepaskan kendali atas harga gas, dan menaikkan harga solar secara rutin. Namun pemerintah masih mempertahankan subsidi pupuk dan makanan untuk dua kelompok pemilih besar – petani dan warga miskin. September lalu pemerintah India mengesahkan undang-undang kontroversial untuk menaikkan subsidi makanan menjadi sekitar $20 miliar per tahunnya dari $4 miliar. Peran subsidi dalam mengatasi ketimpangan sosial sebetulnya belum jelas. Menurut IMF, rumah tangga berpendapatan lebih tinggi adalah pihak yang paling diuntungkan dari subsidi energi. Dengan demikian, subsidi ini justru meningkatkan ketimpangan sosial. Studi pemerintah Indonesia mendapati sekitar 80% bensin bersubsidi digunakan oleh keluarga kelas menengah yang memiliki mobil. Pemerintah bertekad membatasi penggunaan bensin bersubsidi untuk mobil pribadi, namun mengakui penerapan aturan ini masih sulit. Kalaupun subsidi berhasil dikurangi, pemerintah di negara-negara Asia perlu membuat kebijakan lainnya guna membantu warga miskin di negaranya. Juni lalu pemerintah Indonesia menaikkan harga BBM sebesar rata-rata 33%. Meski demikian, pemerintah juga mengalokasikan bantuan langsung tunai untuk warga miskin demi menangkal dampak kenaikan tersebut. Maka, pengaruh pengurangan subsidi terhadap anggaran tidak terlalu besar. SABTU, 19 OKTOBER 2013 | 03:56 WIB Chatib : Indonesia Tetap Waspada Gejolak Global TEMPO.CO , Jakarta:Meskipun ekonomi Indonesia sudah mulai membaik dibanding Agustus lalu, pemerintah mengaku tetap waspada dengan situasi global yang bisa berdampak pada ekonomi regional. Menteri Keuangan Muhamad Chatib Basri mengatakan, pihaknya akan terus berkoordinasi dengan Forum Koordinasi Stabilitas Sistem Keuangan (FKSSK) untuk memonitor situasi global. “Meskipun terjadi stabilisasi dimana respon kebijakan yang dikeluarkan LPS, Bank Indonesia, OJK, dan pemerintah sudah menunjukan hasil positif, kami melihat risiko ke depan harus dimonitor secara baik dan hati-hati,” kata Chatib dalam konfrensi pers seusai pertemuan dengan FKSSK di kantor Kementerian Keuangan, Jumat, 18 Oktober 2013. Menurut Chatib, yang menjadi konsentrasi pemerintah saat ini adalah terus melakukan langkah untuk menekan current account deficit dan perkembangan di sektor perbankan serta pasar modal. “Kami sepakat FKSSK akan terus memonitor dan mengambil langkah antisipasi yang dibutuhkan,” katanya. Dari indikator fiskal, Chatib mengatakan meskipun ada tekanan terhadap target penerimaan pajak akibat harga komoditas, namun defisit masih bisa dijaga dalam batas aman. “Pembiayaan financing dari fiskal aman. Tidak ada kekhawatiran dari sisi fiskal,” katanya. Dia juga mengatakan Surat Utang Negara dalam beberapa pekan terakhir telah menunjukan perbaikan. “SUN 10 tahun kemarin sudah 7,4 persen. Dibandingkan bulan lalu 8,9 persen. Kami bisa melihat stabilisasi obligasi sudah terjadi dan arus capital masuk juga sudah terjadi,” ujar Chatib. ANGGA SUKMA | RIRIN AGUSTIA Ekspor Indonesia ke AS Tetap Tinggi Penulis : Didik Purwanto Sabtu, 19 Oktober 2013 | 08:07 WIB TANGERANG, KOMPAS.com – Kegiatan ekspor komoditas dari Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat tetap tinggi, meski negara adidaya tersebut sedang menghadapi ketidakpastian politik. Direktur Pelaksana PT Indonesia Eximbank Basuki Setyadjid mengatakan, masyarakat AS tetap membutuhkan komoditas seperti biasa, meski pemerintahannya berhenti sementara. “Saya sudah menanyakan ke eksportir yang menjadi klien kami, apakah ekspor mereka ke AS mengalami penurunan pasca-shutdown, ternyata tidak. Permintaan mereka tetap tinggi. Itu kan pemerintahannya yang berhenti. Namun masyarakatnya kan tetap perlu makan dan itu ada komoditas dari Indonesia,” kata Basuki saat media workshop di Hotel Aryaduta, Karawaci, Tangerang, Sabtu (19/10/2013). Jenis komoditas yang permintaannya tinggi ke AS antara lain udang, kopi dan ikan. Komoditas ini memang menjadi primadona bagi Indonesia. Apalagi, Indonesia merupakan negara tropis dengan hasil kopi yang menjadi salah satu terbaik di dunia. Khusus udang dan ikan, dua komoditas ini juga menjadi primadona bagi Indonesia karena Indonesia dikenal sebagai negara maritim dengan hasil komoditas hasil laut yang terkemuka. Hal ini juga pernah diakui sendiri oleh Menteri Luar Negeri AS John Kerry saat mengunjungi Bali pada Konferensi Tingkat Tinggi Asia Pasifik Economic Cooperation (APEC) awal bulan Oktober ini di Bali. “Permintaan komoditas ini tetap tinggi. Mereka konservatif terhadap target yang ada,” tambahnya. Ekonomi China `Rebound` Jadi Kabar Baik buat Indonesia Oleh Fiki Ariyanti Posted: 18/10/2013 15:01 Liputan6.com, Jakarta : Pertumbuhan ekonomi China terkerek naik pada kuartal III 2013 menjadi 7,8% dibanding periode tiga bulan sebelumnya yang bertumbuh 7,5%, akan memberikan dampak positif bagi ekspor negara-negara berkembang termasuk Indonesia. Kondisi ini akan menyusutkan defisit transaksi berjalan Indonesia. BERITA TERKAIT Pengusaha: Infrastruktur Baik Maka Uang Datang Sendiri Pengusaha: Infrastruktur Baik Maka Uang Datang Sendiri Perubahan Orientasi Ekspor Cina Berpengaruh Positif ke RI Perubahan Orientasi Ekspor Cina Berpengaruh Positif ke RI Menurut Menteri Keuangan, Chatib Basri, pergerakan ekonomi China sangat berisiko bagi negara-negara berkembang, termasuk Indonesia. Sebab, apabila negeri Tirai Bambu ini mengalami perlambatan ekonomi maka berimbas pada penurunan permintaan komoditas dan energi. “Jadi dampaknya harga komoditas dan energi akan menurun. Tapi kalau faktanya China bisa bertumbuh sesuai perkiraan 7,6% pada akhir tahun ini akan memberikan situasi yang lebih baik bagi emerging market,” jelasnya usai acara FKSSK di Jakarta, Jumat (18/10/2013). Dengan demikian, lanjut Chatib, tekanan dari sisi ekspor akan lebih ringan dan berpengaruh positif terhadap defisit neraca transaksi berjalan Indonesia. “Kami perkirakan defisit transaksi berjalan Indonesia bisa di bawah 4,4% sampai akhir tahun ini,” ucapnya. China awalnya memasang target pertumbuhan ekonomi di 2013 sebesar 7%-7,5%. Perlambatan ekonomi negara tersebut memberikan tekanan kepada Indonesia hingga akhirnya berpengaruh terhadap target penerimaan pajak. “Pajak mengalami tekanan dari harga komoditas, tapi proses belanjanya jumlah percepatan belum sesuai harapan. Sampai terakhir ini, defisit masih dalam batas aman dan kita masih sanggup membiayainya,” lanjut dia. Gubernur BI Agus Martowardojo mengatakan, pertumbuhan ekonomi China sesuai dengan proyeksi World Economic Outlook Consensus Forecast dari analis dan hasil review bulanan BI yang menyatakan akan berada di level 7,5% pada 2013. Tapi akan lebih rendah di 2014. “Dibandingkan kondisi 3-5 tahun terakhir, ekonomi China bertumbuh 9%. Di sini ada pergeseran landscape ekonomi, di mana ekonomi negara naju akan membaik dan negara berkembang bakal menurun, termasuk Indonesia, India,” pungkasnya. (Fik/Ndw) Pemerintah Klaim Kebijakan Ekonomi Tahun Ini Tepat Penulis : Didik Purwanto Senin, 14 Oktober 2013 | 17:43 WIB JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com – Pemerintah mengklaim keberhasilan ekonomi Indonesia di tahun ini. Hal itu berkat respon yang cepat dari paket kebijakan ekonomi yang telah dirilis untuk mengantisipasi gejolak ekonomi global yang tidak menentu. Staf Khusus Presiden bidang Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Firmanzah mengatakan, ketidakpastian global disertai gejolak pasar keuangan global serta volatilitas komoditas dunia telah mengancam hampir sebagian besar negara berkembang termasuk Indonesia. “Namun, respon kebijakan yang cepat (quick policy responses) dan koordinasi kebijakan lintas sektor merupakan faktor kunci agar mitigasi risiko yang lebih dalam dapat diredam semaksimal mungkin,” kata Firmanzah seperti dikutip dari laman Sekretariat Kabinet di Jakarta, Senin (14/10/2013). Keberhasilan ekonomi Indonesia tersebut dibuktikan dengan inflasi bulanan di awal Oktober ini cukup rendah, malah terjadi deflasi 0,35 persen dengan Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) sebesar 145,74 sepanjang bulan September 2013, dan surplus perdagangan sebesar 132,4 juta dollar AS atau meningkat dibanding neraca bulan Juli 2013 yang mencatat defisit sebesar 2,31 miliar dollar AS. Firmanzah menilai hal ini merupakan sinyal positif untuk terus meningkatkan daya tahan ekonomi nasional di tengah gejolak. Di sisi lain, pemerintah terus menjaga dan mengendalikan inflasi melalui pengendalian harga dan menjaga keseimbangan pasok permintaan untuk memastikan inflasi terjaga. Sentimen positif kinerja inflasi dan perdagangan sebagaimana diumumkan Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) akan dijadikan penambah daya dorong untuk menjaga stabilitas dan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang kuat dan berkualitas. “Perkembangan harga sejumlah komoditas kebutuhan pokok khususnya yang berdampak langsung terhadap kelompok masyarakat miskin terus dipantau. Komitmen pengentasan kemiskinan dan upaya memberi kesejahteraan seluas-luasnya bagi masyarakat diharapkan dapat terus ditingkatkan di masa mendatang,” papar Firmanzah. Ia menegaskan, strategi keep buying policy yang ditujukan untuk menjaga dan mendorong tingkat konsumsi masyarakat juga terus dilakukan dalam menjaga pertumbuhan positif di samping mendorong investasi khususnya di sektor infrastruktur. Editor : Bambang Priyo Jatmiko Kemenperin: industri tumbuh hampir tiga kali lipat Minggu, 29 September 2013 15:50 WIB | 3912 Views Pewarta: Risbiani Fardaniah Bandung (ANTARA News) – Sekjen Kementerian Perindustrian (Kemenperin), Anshari Bukhari, mengatakan dalam empat tahun terakhir industri nasional tumbuh tiga kali lipat, seiring dengan pertumbuhan investasi di Indonesia. “Dari aspek makro terjadi pertumbuhan industri yang luar biasa. Industri nasional sudah tumbuh tiga kali lipat,” katanya di sela-sela kunjungan kerjanya ke Pameran Produksi Indonesia (PPI) 2013 di Bandung, Jawa Barat, Minggu. Ia menjelaskan pada 2009 pertumbuhan industri masih berkisar 2,5 persen, dan naik pada 2010 menjadi di atas lima persen, kemudian pada 2011 menjadi sekitar enam persen. “Pada tahun lalu pertumbuhan industri sudah menembus 6,83 persen, di atas pertumbuhan ekonomi. Tahun ini target (pertumbuhan industri) awalnya 7,1 persen,” kata Anshari. Namun dengan mempertimbangkan kondisi ekonomi nasional dalam triwulan ketiga dan keempat ini, ia memperkirakan minimal industri nasional tumbuh sekitar 6,5 persen. “Hampir semua industri sekarang tumbuh, terutama di sektor agro, seiring dengan kebijakan hilirisasi. Kini sudah tumbuh industri turunan CPO (minyak sawit mentah) dan kakao,” kata Anshari. Demikian pula dengan industri tekstil dan produk tektil (TPT) serta alas kaki, yang tumbuh negatif pada 2009, tapi kini mulai tumbuh positif. Sementara industri alat angkut, peralatan dan permesinan, selalu tumbuh positif, demikian pula dengan makanan, katanya. “Jadi kami yakin industri yang berbasis teknologi dan SDM akan semakin didorong untuk mempercepat pertumbuhan,” katanya. Anshari juga mengatakan sejak 2009 itu pula investasi di sektor industri tumbuh rata-rata 30 sampai 40 persen setiap tahun, yang didominasi investasi asing. “Investasi asing atau PMA di sektor industri mencapai 60 persen, sedangkan PMDN (penanaman modal dalam negeri) hanya 40 persen. Karena itu, kami meminta Kadin mengimbau anggotanya meningkatkan investasi pengusaha domestik,” katanya. Editor: Ella Syafputri Pertumbuhan Indonesia, Terbaik Kesepuluh di Dunia Mia Chitra Dinisari – Senin, 30 September 2013, 18:02 WIB Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Indonesia tercatat duduk dalam peringkat keempat terbaik dunia dari sisi perkembangan modal tenaga kerja dan sumber daya manusia, sedangkan dalam pertumbuhan ekonomi berada di peringkat kesepuluh. Peringkat itu, berdasarkan Indeks Dinamika Global Grant Thorton (Grant Thornton Global Dynamism Index/GDI) tahun 2013. Survey sendiri dilakukan berdasarkan ranking pertumbuhan ekonomi dari 60 negara dengan ekonomi yang kuat. Peringkat itu, dijelaskan berdasrkan kapabilitas modal tenaga kerja dan sumberdaya manusia yang kuat, yang dihasilkan dari berbagai macam faktor yang termasuk diantaranya adalah pertumbuhan produktivitas tenaga kerja, tingkat pengangguran, serta waktu yang dihabiskan untuk pendidikan dan umur populasi. Managing Partner Grant Thorton Indonesia Johanna Gani mengatakan peringkat ini naik dibandingkan tahun lalu, dimana Indonesia tidak masuk dalam lima besar dalam sisi Modal Kerja dan SDM. “Peluang-peluang bisnis sangat kuat di Indonesia namun masih membutuhkan orang-orang yang tepat untuk menerjemahkan peluang-peluang tersebut agar menjadi pertumbuhan,” ujar Johanna dalam siaran persnya hari ini, Senin (30/9/2013). Dia mengatakan dengan sumber daya yang potensial itu, bisa meningkatkan produktivitas, menghemat waktu dan biaya organisasi atau perusahaan serta pada akhirnya akan bisa mengembangkan bisnis, terutama di negara Indonesia yang memiliki rata-rata usia produktif 28,5 tahun. Sementara itu, katanya, dari sisi ekonomi dan pertumbuhan, Indonesia cenderung memiliki keuntungan karena memiliki lingkungan bisnis yang dinamis, yang membutuhkan tuntutan yang sesuai dengan produk dan layanan untuk berkembang. Apalagi, Indonesia kaya sumber daya alam seperti mineral, hutan tanaman industri dan sumber panas bumi, dan mendapatkan keuntungan dari tenaga kerja dengan upah terjangkau yang memberi potensi pertumbuhan di tahun-tahun mendatang. Berdasarkan indeks GDI 2013, secara keseluruhan, Australia menduduki ranking pertama. Namun Indonesia mendapat penilaian lebih baik dari Australia terkait dengan beberapa faktor kunci, seperto presentasi jumlah penduduk berusia dibawah 30 tahun (Indonesia 54%/Australia 23%); pertumbuhan produktivitas tenaga kerja dibandingkan dengan tahun 2012 (Indonesia 79%/Australia 56%) dan pertumbuhan riil GDP dibandingkan dengan tahun 2012 (Indonesia 90%/Australia 70%). Karena itu, Indonesia dinilai memiliki kinerja baik dan melampaui kekuatan-kekuatan ekonomi lain yang baru muncul di Afrika serta kekuatan ekonomi yang sudah mapan di Eropa Timur. GDI sendiri didirikan bersamaan dengan lembaga survei Economist Intelligence Unit, yang menakar dinamika 60 negara dengan ekonomi yang kuat. Acuannya, yakmi perubahan-perubahan dalam sebuah negara yang kemungkinan akan membawa tingkat pertumbuhan yang cepat di masa datang dan GDI meranking perkembangan dari lingkungan pertumbuhan bisnis dari tiap negara pada tahun sebelumnya. Adapun tingkat ekonomi negara di ranking atas 22 indikator dari lima kategori yaitu, lingkungan operasional bisnis, ilmu pengetahuan dan teknologi, modal tenaga kerja dan SDM, lingkungan keuangan, ekonomi dan pertumbuhan. Editor : Martin Sihombing SELASA, 08 OKTOBER 2013 | 22:04 WIB Ini Investasi yang Diraup Indonesia dari APEC TEMPO.CO, Nusa Dua – Tak hanya pertemuan antar-kepala negara, KTT APEC di Bali juga jadi ajang perundingan kerja sama bagi para pengusaha. Maklum, dalam rangkaian KTT kali ini, digelar juga CEO Summit yang mempertemukan 1.200 bos dari perusahaan-perusahaan besar sekawasan Asia Pasifik. Dalam kesempatan ini, Indonesia sebagai tuan rumah pun berhasil mendapatkan investasi besar di beberapa sektor. Di antaranya adalah pembangunan pembangkit listrik tenaga panas bumi (PLTP) di Sumbawa, Nusa Tenggara Barat. Investasi yang merupakan hasil kerja sama PT Pacific Geo Energy dengan perusahaan asal Amerika Serikat Ormat Technologie ini bernilai US$ 250 juta atau sekitar Rp 2,5 triliun. Menteri Perdagangan AS Penny Pritzker yang menyaksikan perjanjian itu di Hotel Nikko, Nusa Dua, siang tadi mengatakan, “Kedua perusahaan akan bekerja dalam sebuah proyek pembangkit dengan kapasitas 60 megawatt di Sumbawa.” Pritzker mengatakan, proyek pembangunan pembangkit menggunakan teknologi tinggi dan ramah lingkungan. Ini sesuai dengan keinginan kedua negara untuk terus berupaya menurunkan emisi karbon. “Proyek ini akan mengurangi emisi sebesar setengah juta kali setiap tahunnya,” katanya. Selain itu, Menteri Koordinator Perekonomian Hatta Rajasa menyatakan bahwa ada 21 perusahaan asal Cina yang siap menggelontorkan investasi senilai US$ 28,2 juta untuk berbagai proyek di Tanah air. “Sudah ada nota kesepahaman, mereka ingin mengadakan joint venture, dengan perusahaan sini,” ujarnya. Di sektor pengolahan logam, Ketua Umum Kadin Indonesia Suryo Bambang Sulisto menyatakan bahwa ada seorang konglomerat Rusia berminat menggelontorkan modal sebesar US$ 3 miliar. Konglomerat itu, kata Suryo adalah Oleg Deripaska, Chairman Supervisory Board Basic Element yang merupakan perusahaan aluminium terbesar di dunia. Suryo menyatakan bahwa pemerintah harus turun tangan untuk menggolkan proyek ini. “Jika tidak ada follow up yang cepat dan tepat, investor hanya sampai pada niat saja,” katanya. Deripaska, kata Suryo, hanya salah satu dari calon investor potensial yang datang ke APEC CEO Summit pekan lau. Limpahan sumber daya alam, pasar yang besar dan terus tumbuh, serta iklim politik serta ekonomi yang relatif stabil menurutnya pasti akan menarik lebih banyak lagi investor ke negeri ini. Yang penting sekarang, kata Suryo, adalah bagaimana pemerintah membuat iklim usaha yang baik dengan menyediakan infrastruktur yang layak, kepastian hukum, dan penyederhanaan birokrasi. “Ini semua harus dilakukan, jangan sampai APEC Summit ini hanya ajang kongko-kongko tanpa hasil,” ujarnya. PINGIT ARIA RABU, 09 OKTOBER 2013 | 09:27 WIB Kinerja Ekspor Belum Akan Terkena Dampak Shutdown TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – Pengusaha eksportir Indonesia belum merasakan dampak ekonomi dari terganggunya operasional pemerintah (shutdown) Amerika Serikat (AS), seiring belum juga disepakatinya anggaran Negeri Abang Sam tersebut oleh Kongres. “Sementara belum, sebagian besar kontrak-kontrak dengan AS jangka menengah panjang, per tiga bulan, enam bulan. Kalau kontrak garmen juga sifatnya pada musim-musim yang ada,” kata Ketua Umum Asosiasi Pengusaha Indonesia (Apindo), Sofjan Wanandi, kepada Tempo, Rabu, 9 Oktober 2013. Ia menjelaskan, pengusaha Indonesia tak punya kontrak harian dengan AS lantaran distribusi barang dari Tanah Air ke AS butuh waktu cukup panjang karena jarak yang terlalu jauh. “Paling-paling kalau ada tambahan baru dilakukan,” katanya. Meski begitu, Sofjan mengatakan, pengusaha domestik masih menunggu keputusan AS soal perubahan batas atas utang negara pada 17 Oktober 2013. “Mereka bisa bayar bonds-nya tidak? Kalau tidak, dampak ke komitmen-komitmen pembayaran kami seperti apa?” Sofjan juga mengutarakan kekhawatiran akan keberlanjutan kontrak-kontrak ekspor Indonesia-AS jika kondisi ekonomi negara tersebut memburuk. “Kalau terjadi sesuatu dengan ekonomi AS, seluruh dunia bisa kena. Kita harus siap-siap, bisa-bisa mereka batalkan kontrak sama kita. Banyak yang unpredictable, kami harapkan tidak terjadi,” ujarnya. Ia menjelaskan, AS merupakan salah satu mitra dagang terbesar Indonesia. Selain dengan AS, mitra besar lainnya seperti Cina, Jepang, Korea, dan negara-negara Eropa. “Trading melalui negara-negara ASEAN juga besar, ekspor kita selalu melalui Singapura, ada juga yang kita ekspor di-reekspor dari sana,” ucapnya. Menurut Sofjan, untuk mengantisipasi berbagai ketidakpastian ke depan, pengusaha mengakali dari segi cash flow. Jika kontrak-kontrak ekspor diputus, pengusaha akan ambil langkah segera untuk menjual bahan baku yang telanjur dibeli, baik ke pengusaha di dalam negeri maupun di luar negeri. Selain itu, kata dia, sejumlah pengusaha juga sudah menurunkan kapasitas produksinya sebesar kira-kira 10 persen, tak melakukan penerimaan pekerja baru, hingga merumahkan pekerjanya. Hal ini untuk menanggapi kondisi ekonomi global saat ini dan ke depan. “Tidak bisa jual, mau apa? Cost harus dikurangi,” ucapnya. MARTHA THERTINA RI Berpeluang Keluar Paling Cepat dari Krisis Oleh Rio Winto dan Abdul Aziz | Rabu, 9 Oktober 2013 | 8:51 JAKARTA – Indonesia bisa keluar lebih cepat dari tekanan krisis ekonomi global jika segera mengambil langkah-langkah penyelamatan. Langkah yang bisa ditempuh pemerintah antara lain mempercepat pembangunan infrastruktur, membangun industri dasar dan industri barang modal, menggalakkan program hilirisasi, serta memperkuat pasar domestik untuk mengurangi ketergantungan terhadap barang impor Jika langkah-langkah itu diterapkan secara konsisten dan sungguh-sungguh, Indonesia bukan saja akan keluar lebih cepat dari tekanan krisis ekonomi global, tapi juga bisa menjadi negara maju lebih cepat dari yang diestimasikan lembaga-lembaga internasional selama ini. Sebab, Indonesia memiliki fundamental ekonomi yang kokoh, sumber daya alam yang melimpah, dan pasar domestik yang besar sebagai sumber kekuatan. Hal itu diungkapkan ekonom Danareksa Research Institute Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, ekonom senior Standard Chartered Fauzi Ichsan, Kepala Ekonom Bank Internasional Indonesia (BII) Juniman, dan Chief Economist Bank Mandiri Destry Damayanti. Mereka dihubungi Investor Daily secara terpisah di Jakarta, Selasa (8/10). Besarnya potensi Indonesia untuk keluar dari tekanan krisis ekonomi global juga dikemukakan Guru Besar Ekonomi Stern School of Business, New York Univesity, AS, Prof Dr Nouriel Roubini dalam diskusi Present and Future Outlook of Indonesia, India and China di Nusa Dua Bali, pekan lalu. Pendiri sekaligus ketua Roubini Global Economics itu bahkan menegaskan, prospek ekonomi Indonesia lebih baik dibanding RRT dan India. Sementara itu, Organisasi untuk Kerja Sama dan Pembangunan Ekonomi (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development/OECD) dalam laporan terbarunya yang dipublikasikan kemarin menyebutkan, Indonesia akan mengalami pertumbuhan ekonomi paling pesat di antara negara-negara utama Asia Tenggara dengan kisaran 6% per tahun pada periode 2014-2018. Selain itu, Indonesia berpotensi menjadi negara maju atau berpenghasilan tinggi dalam dalam 30 tahun mendatang, lebih lambat dari Tiongkok (13 tahun), namun lebih cepat dibandingkan India (46 tahun). Per Kuartal II/2013, Neraca Perdagangan Jasa RI Defisit US$3 Miliar Dewi Andriani – Senin, 07 Oktober 2013, 20:43 WIB Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Transaksi neraca perdagangan jasa Indonesia kembali mengalami defisit pada kuartal II/2013 mencapai US$3 miliar, seiring dengan peningkatan nilai impor jasa sebesar US$8,7 miliar, sementara ekspor jasa stagnan di angka US$5,6 miliar. Defisit itu meningkat dibandingkan dengan kuartal I/2013 sekitar US$2,48 miliar. Berdasarkan data dari Bank Indonesia, defisit neraca terbesar terjadi pada sektor transportasi yang berkontribusi hingga US$2,38 miliar atau sekitar 77%. Direktur Neraca Pengeluaran Badan Pusat Statistik, Sri Sulistyawati, mengatakan defisit transportasi itu terjadi karena ketika Indonesia melakukan ekspor ke negara lain, pengangkutan lebih banyak menggunakan kapal kapal asing sehingga terjadi impor jasa. Apalagi ketika membawa produk luar negeri ke Indonesia. “Secara overall sektor jasa kita masih defisit, terutama dari sektor transportasi karena banyak transportasi luar yang digunakan untuk mengangkut barang-barang dari Indonesia,” katanya Senin (7/10/2013). Namun dari sektor pariwisata, neraca perdagangan masih surplus US$196 juta mengingat besarnya dana yang dikeluarkan wisatawan mancanegara yang berlibur ke Indonesia dibandingkan dengan dana para turis lokal yang ke luar negeri. “Potensi jasa di Indonesia masih sangat tinggi, sayangnya neraca perdagangan jasa masih terus defisit”. Dia berharap dengan adanya data yang lebih komprehensif dengan standarisasi internasional, pembuat kebijakan akan lebih mengetahui kondisi rill ketika akan melakukan impor jasa ke Indonesia. “Dengan adanya data yang lengkap di sektor jasa, pemerintah akan mengetahui posisi dan potensi yang ada di Indonesia untuk memperkuat negosiasi dengan negara lain.” Editor : Yusran Yunus Emerging Market Diprediksi Terpelanting dalam 2 Dekade Sri Mas Sari – Senin, 07 Oktober 2013, 21:23 WIB Bisnis.com, NUSA DUA, Bali – Pertumbuhan negara-negara emerging markets diprediksi turun dalam 2 dekade jika tak segera memperbaiki infrastruktur di dalam negeri. Ruchir Sharma, penulis buku Breakout Nations, mengatakan kelompok emerging markets hanya akan tumbuh pesat dalam 1-2 dekade, lalu kembali melambat ketika pemimpinnya berpuas diri. Baginya kebangkitan kelompok negara berkembang hanyalah mitos yang muncul pada era 2000-an. Sebagian besar emerging markets selama ini tetap menjadi emerging markets dan hanya sedikit dari mereka yang naik status atau disebutnya sebagai ‘breakout nation’ menjadi negara maju, seperti Jepang, Korea, Taiwan dan Singapura. Baginya, breakout nation adalah mereka yang mampu mempertahankan pertumbuhan yang cepat di antara sesama negara berpendapatan per kapita yang sama, dalam 5-10 tahun, dengan infrastruktur menjadi kunci penting. Sharma memberi ilustrasi, ketika di suatu negara, terjadi fenomena para pejabat atau orang kaya menggunakan helikopter pribadinya untuk menjangkau tempat-tempat yang jauh, sedangkan pada saat yang sama masyarakat kesulitan mengaksesnya dengan transportasi umum, maka negara tersebut terjebak dalam apa yang disebut middle income trap. “Ini yang saya sebut dengan ‘ekonomi helikopter’,” katanya di sela APEC CEO Summit Discussion on Emerging Markets, Senin (7/10/2013). Sharma menunjukkan kelompok emerging markets Brasil, Rusia, India dan China (BRIC) yang saat ini mulai menunjukkan penurunan, terutama karena pelemahan harga komoditas. Kendati tetap tumbuh, China menunjukkan perlambatan dengan prediksi 7,5% tahun ini setelah sempat tumbuh dua digit pada 2010. Pertumbuhan China sedikit tertolong karena adanya pembangunan infrastruktur. Saat pertumbuhan China melambat, permintaan terhadap komoditas otomatis melambat. Padahal, pemasok komoditas bagi China adalah Brasil, Rusia dan India sehingga perlambatan di Negeri Tirai Bambu itu pun merembet ke ‘rekan sejawatnya’ itu. “Ada peningkatan modal di sektor energi 600%, tetapi sektor lain hanya 200%. Ini yang menyebabkan permintaan China terhadap komoditas semakin menurun,” ujarnya. Sementara itu, ekonomi Brasil hanya tumbuh di kisaran 2% karena investasi infrastruktur di Negeri Samba itu buruk. Pemerintah setempat lebih banyak mengalokasikan belanja kesejahteraan sosial. Kisaran yang sama juga diperoleh Rusia karena sebagian besar anggarannya digunakan untuk belanja kesejahteraan masyarakat ketimbang infrastruktur. Adapun India sangat bergantung pada pertumbuhan ekonomi global. India hanya tumbuh 4,4% pada kuartal II/2013 atau terendah sejak 2009. Editor : Fatkhul Maskur Ekonom AS Bandingkan China, India, dan Indonesia, Siapa Terbaik? Maikel Jefriando – detikFinance Sabtu, 05/10/2013 17:55 WIB Nusa Dua – Indonesia, China, dan India adalah tiga negara yang selalu disandingkan ekonominya dalam beberapa waktu terakhir. Salah satunya karena pertumbuhan ekonomi ketiganya sebagai negara berkembang tinggi, meskipun diterpa gejolak ekonomi global. Ekonom Amerika Serikat (AS) dari New York School of Economic bernama Nouriel Roubini ikut membandingkan ketiga negara ini. Ia berpendapat, kondisi sekarang, Indonesia lebih bagus dari China dan India. “Indonesia lebih bagus dari pada China dan India,” ungkap Roubini dalam pidatonya pada acara Pre-CEO Summit di Bali Internasional Convention Center (BICC), Nusa Dua, Bali, Sabtu (5/10/2013). Kondisi perekonomian Indonesia yang lebih bagus tentunya bukan tanpa alasan. Bila disandingkan dengan China, ada empat faktor yang menjadi indikator. Pertama adalah dari kondisi demografis. Indonesia menurut Roubini jauh lebih bagus, karena anak muda di Indonesia lebih banyak. Kedua dari pertumbuhan ekonomi, China sejauh ini mengandalkan bom kredit yang tentunya berbeda dengan Indonesia. “Pertumbuhan China terlalu mengandalkan bom kredit sehingga ada ketidakstabilan ekonomi,” sebutnya. Ketiga adalah keseimbangan pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan kebutuhan domestik. Keempat adalah Indonesia yang menggunakan sistem demokrasi jauh lebih bagus secara jangka panjang dibandingkan China. ” Demokrasi secara jangka panjang jauh lebih bagus dengan sistem negara otoriter

,” ucap Roubini. Sementara dengan India, menurut Roubini, sekarang India jauh lebih buruk dibanding Indonesia. Terutama dalam persoalan defisit kembar yang dialami sejak beberapa waktu terakhir. Defisit kembar adalah defisit neraca perdagangan dan defisit anggaran. Faktor yang menjadi penyebab jatuhnya perekonomian India sebenarnya juga menerpa Indonesia. Namun, Bank Indonesia (BI) dinilai lebih sigap untuk menaikkan suku bunga acuan. “BI lebih agresif dalam menaikkan suku bunga acuan yang akan menstabilkan inflasi,” uajrnya. Sama memiliki sistem demokrasi, Roubini menyatakan, ada dua kondisi berbeda dari India dan Indonesia. “Demokrasi Indonesia lebih stabil. Di India ada beberapa partai yang sudah konsolidasi. Di Indonesia lebih solid,” tutupnya. Roubini memprediksi, dalam waktu dekat Indonesia akan mampu melampaui pertumbuhan China dan India. Asalkan beberapa persoalan penting harus dibenahi. Seperti infrastruktur, reformasi struktural, pencipataan lapangan kerja, investasi langsung, pemusnahan korupsi, transpransi, dan pemerataan kesejahteraan. Bank Dunia: Shutdown AS Jadi Peluang Indonesia TEMPO.CO – 2 jam 36 menit lalu TEMPO.CO , Jakarta:Ekonom utama Bank Dunia Jim Brumby menilai shutdown alias terhentinya sementara pemerintahan di Amerika Serikat bisa dimanfaatkan negara berkembang, seperti Indonesia untuk memperbaiki kondisi fundamental perekonomian. »Setidaknya negara berkembang tidak perlu mengkhawatirkan rencana bank sentral AS yang akan mencabut stimulus quantitative easing dalam waktu dekat,” ujarnya dalam pemaparan Indonesia Economic Quarterly di Jakarta, Jumat, 4 Oktober 2013. Indonesia menjadikan momentum shutdown pemerintahan ini untuk membereskan permasalahan seperti defisit neraca perdagangan dan menekan inflasi. »Sehingga jika kondisi perekonomian Amerika Serikat membaik, dan bank sentralnya memutuskan untuk menarik atau menghentikan stimulus, Indonesia bisa jadi lebih siap,” kata Brumby. Pemerintahan Amerika Serikat terhenti sementara akibat pembahasan anggaran yang mentok di tingkat kongres. Penghentian stimulus quantitative easing oleh bank sentral Amerika Serikat merupakan salah satu faktor penyebab guncangnya kondisi perekonomian di sejumlah negara berkembang termasuk Indonesia. Sejak rencana pencabutan stimulus diumumkan, pasar mulai khawatir akan adanya capital outflow atau arus modal keluar dalam jumlah besar. Kondisi ini menekan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar dan sempat membuat indeks harga saham anjlok. Bank Dunia, menurut Jim, menilai langkah Indonesia dalam merilis paket kebijakan stabilisasi ekonomi pada Agustus sebagai langkah tepat. »Pemerintah mengetahui masalah yang dihadapi dan fokus untuk menyelesaikannya,” kata dia. »Ini memberikan sinyal positif bagi pasar.” Selain itu jika implementasi kebijakan ini bagus, daya tahan Indonesia dalam menghadapi krisis bisa lebih kuat. Kendati shutdown di Amerika Serikat akan berdampak pada menurunnya permintaan komoditas ekspor, Jim memandang justru Indonesia berkesempatan meningkatkan daya saing ekspornya. »Banyak langkah jangka pendek yang bisa dilakukan, salah satunya memperbaiki arus barang di pelabuhan Tanjung Priok,” kata dia. ADB Siap Gelontorkan Tambahan Dana Siaga ke Indonesia Demis Rizky Gosta – Kamis, 03 Oktober 2013, 20:39 WIB Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Asia Development Bank siap menambah dana siaga yang bisa dipergunakan Pemerintah Indonesia untuk mengantisipasi krisis finansial. Presiden ADB Presiden Asia Development Bank Takehiko Nakao menyatakan ADB bersedia memberi dana bantuan krisis jika Pemerintah Indonesia membutuhkan. Bantuan tersebut, lanjutnya, bisa diberikan dalam bentuk pinjaman siaga (standby loan) atau modal perdagangan (trade financing). “ADB siap mendukung [pemerintah Indonesia] dalam bentuk-bentuk tersebut, jika diperlukan,” kata Nakao usai bertemu Presiden Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Kamis (3/10/2013). ADB saat ini telah mengalokasikan dana senilai US$500 juta dalam bentuk standby loan untuk Indonesia. Total dana siaga Indonesia saat ini mencapai US$5 miliar. Selain ADB, pemerintah memperoleh dana siaga dari Australia senilai US$1 miliar, program Perisai Bank Dunia sebesar US$2 miliar, dan JICA senilai US$1,5 miliar. Namun, Naoko menegaskan dana siaga tersebut tidak akan mampu meredam gejolak pasar finansial tanpa dukungan kebijakan lain. “Kecuali pemerintah mengirimkan sinyal tegas tentang potensi pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia dan meneruskan kebijakan ekonomi yang kokoh,” katanya. Editor : Martin Sihombing October 1, 2013, 7:49 a.m. ET Asia Is Benefitting From Upturn in Demand From Industrialized Nations By Natasha Brereton-Fukui and Tom Wright Economic data from across Asia is showing how the region is benefiting from an upturn in demand from industrialized nations. After the U.S. entered recession in 2007, Asia’s export-focused nations–notably China–were forced to rely on massive domestic stimulus spending to boost local demand. In the current economic cycle, the U.S., Japan and Europe are leading a recovery in global growth. The changed dynamic was illustrated by a number of manufacturing indexes released Tuesday that showed strong export orders. China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index measured 51.1 in September, its highest reading since April 2012. New export orders stood above the 50-mark which separates expansion from contraction for the second time since April. PMI surveys conducted by HSBC and Markit showed that manufacturing activity improved in Taiwan and Vietnam. South Korea’s PMI, while just below the 50-mark, registered its highest level in four months, HSBC said. These nations rely on electronics, which account for about 40% of manufacturing output in the Asian region, making them dependent on consumers in rich nations. “The latest pickup in Asian manufacturing activity reflects stronger demand from developed markets like the U.S. and Europe, as well as moderate growth in China,” said Chetan Ahya, chief Asia economist at Morgan Stanley. He expects demand from developed markets to continue to strengthen over the remaining months of 2013 and to improve further next year. Taiwan, a major exporter of cutting-edge semiconductors and a bellwether for the global economic cycle, has staged a comeback in recent months as exports recover. Its economy is forecast to grow 2% this year, recovering from a contraction in the first quarter. The country’s PMI in September stood at 52, up from 50 in August, the fastest expansion since March 2012. Firms surveyed by HSBC and Markit cited stronger demand from Europe and the U.S., as well as China. Vietnam’s PMI was at 51.5, up from 49.4 in August, and the best reading since April 2011, the first month for which survey data is available, HSBC said. The bank said its Asian electronics sector leading indicator–which tracks PMIs from China, South Korea and Taiwan, among other data–returned to positive territory in September for the first time in five months. The index, HSBC said, has a two month lag over the electronics cycle, signaling expansion in economic activity through November. South Korea on Tuesday said exports in September fell 1.5% on year to $44.7 billion. But the decrease was due to a large number of public holidays in the month and the average value of South Korea’s daily exports hit a record high of $2.24 billion. Nomura economist Kwon Young-sun said South Korean electronics exporters are moving to higher-value-added products, which should help as demand picks up in developed markets. The average value of exports has been on a gradual uptrend, rising from $1.97 billion in August and $1.83 billion in July. “The worst is probably over for most of Asia’s manufacturers,” Capital Economics said in a note. “Although conditions are still fairly weak, we should see a gradual improvement over the next year if, as we expect, the global economic recovery gains momentum.” How far the U.S. recovery will continue to help Asian economies in the months ahead remains an open question. Mr. Ahya of Morgan Stanley points out consumer spending is playing a smaller role in the U.S. recovery than in the past, which may limit demand for Asian exports. What’s more, with the U.S. Federal Reserve likely to pull back on its extraordinary monetary stimulus as the economy recovers, borrowing costs are going to rise across Asia, possibly crimping investment, Mr. Ahya added. There were some other clouds on the horizon. Countries in the region that depend more on commodity exports to China fared poorly. Indonesia, which is a large exporter of coal and iron ore, on Tuesday said exports fell in August by 6.3% on year. Indonesia’s PMI returned to expansionary territory in September, at 50.2, but the outlook for exports worsened. China’s economy is expected to have grown around 7.7% in the third quarter–data is due Oct. 18– better than 7.5% in the second quarter. But this is still much slower than double-digit rates of recent years, signaling an end to the commodity price boom. In India, which is suffering from a lack of investment in manufacturing, HSBC’s PMI remained below 50 and new export orders contracted at their fastest pace in more than two years. -Liyan Qi in Beijing and Kwanwoo Jun in Seoul contributed to this report Mengurangi Ketergantungan Eksternal Senin, 30 September 2013 | 7:07 investor daily Rupiah kembali melemah dan harga saham kembali anjlok pasca The Fed menunda kebijakan mengurangi stimulus kepada perekonomian AS, yang dikenal dengan tapering off quantitative easing. Ekonomi AS dinilai belum sungguh sehat. Laju pertumbuhan ekonomi belum cukup membuka lapangan pekerjaan. Angka pengangguran relatif masih tinggi. Kebijakan itu hanya sejenak mendongkrak harga saham di Bursa Efek Indonesia dan penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar AS. Beberapa hari kemudian, harga saham kembali terjungkal dan rupiah kembali terdepresiasi. Isu tentang besarnya utang publik AS yang mencapai US$ 16,5 triliun, atau di atas produk domestik bruto (PDB) negeri adidaya itu yang saat ini sekitar US$ 16,7 triliun, defisit bujetnya yang masih besar, dan ketidakpastian quantitative easing (QE) memicu kegusaran pelaku pasar. Para pelaku pasar yakin, tapering off QE hanya soal waktu. Ben Shalom Bernanke tetap akan mengurangi dana stimulus sebesar US$ 85 miliar sebulan jelang akhir masa jabatannya, Januari 2014. Penggantinya, Janet Yellen, diperkirakan terus melanjutkan kebijakan Bernanke. Pasar memprediksi, pada pertengahan 2014, The Fed takkan lagi mengucurkan dana stimulus. Saat ini saja, imbal hasil surat berharga di AS sudah perlahan naik mengantisipasi keputusan The Fed. Integrasi ekonomi dunia membuat setiap negara tidak lagi luput dari pengaruh eksternal. Isu positif maupun negatif, cepat atau lambat, memengaruhi ekonomi suatu negara. Situasi itulah yang saat ini tengah dialami Indonesia. Akibat krisis ekonomi Eropa dan kebijakan ekonomi AS, dana hot money yang selama ini mendongkrak harga saham di Bursa Efek Indonesia kembali mengalir ke negeri asalnya, terutama AS untuk mengejar surat-surat berharga yang beropotensi naik. Dana investasi langsung —foreign direct investment (FDI)— diperkirakan masih mengalir ke Indonesia. Tapi tidak dengan dana jangka pendek untuk investasi di surat berharga, saham atau surat utang, yang acap disebut hot money. Meski persaingan untuk memperebutkan FDI sangat ketat, Indonesia masih dianggap tujuan investasi langsung yang cukup prospektif. Dengan penduduk 350 juta dan sumber energi yang masih kaya, investasi di Indonesia menguntungkan dalam jangka menengah dan panjang. Persaingan untuk memperebutkan FDI memang kian sengit. Negara maju pun kini gencar menarik minat investasi. Eropa, AS, Kanada, dan Jepang tiada henti-hentinya mengundang investor. Sejumlah pengusaha dari Indonesia dan negara pasar berkembang sudah menjajaki investasi di negara maju, terutama bisnis properti. Jika tidak ada kreativitas dan upaya yang lebih sistematis dan serius, realisasi investasi asing di Indonesia takkan bisa mencapai target. Dalam menghadapi situasi seperti ini, pemerintah, pelaku usaha, dan masyarakat perlu bahu-membahu mengurangi tekanan eksternal. “Buying Indonesian” kiranya menjadi gaya hidup masyarakat. Impor akan berkurang drastis jika elite Indonesia menunjukkan suri teladan mengonsumsi semua produk yang sudah diproduksi di Indonesia. Banyak sekali tekstil, alas kaki, elektronik, makanan, dan minuman produksi dalam negeri. Jika ada contoh mengonsumsi produk dalam negeri dari kalangan elite yang ada di pemerintahan dan legislatif, rakyat akan mengikuti. Apakah alas kaki, pakaian, ikan pinggang, mobil, dan handphone yang digunakan elite pemerintah dan legislatif adalah produk dalam negeri? Jika ingin memberikan dampak yang besar, kita tantang para menteri, gubernur, bupati, dan anggota DPR, DPRD I, dan DPRD II menggunakan mobil murah dan ramah lingkungan. Pengggunaan low cost and green car (LCGC) itu sekaligus menurunkan pemakaian BBM. Mengalirnya hot money ke negeri asalnya tidak mesti terus-menerus direspons dengan kenaikan suku bunga. BI rate 7,25% sudah cukup memadai. Kalau pun mau dinaikkan lagi, maksimal 8%. Lebih dari itu, kebijakan uang ketat ini menimbulkan dampak buruk yang tidak diinginkan, yakni membengkaknya kredit non performing loan (NPL) atau kredit bermasalah. Melambatnya pertumbuhan kredit bisa dipahami. Dalam kondisi turbulensi ekonomi, yang perlu diprioritaskan adalah stabilitas, bukan pertumbuhan. Tapi, jika NPL terlalu besar, yang kemungkinan baru terjadi tahun 2014, pertumbuhan ekonomi berkelanjutan akan terganggu. Pada tahun 2015, ekonomi Indonesia kembali bangkit seiring dengan perbaikan ekonomi dunia. Tahun depan, kondisi ekonomi tidak sebaik tahun ini, namun tetap relatif lebih baik dari ratarata negara pasar berkembang lainnya. Pemilu legislatif dan pemilu presiden tahun depan diperkirakan akan menambah likuiditas pada perekonomian meski tidak digunakan untuk belanja modal. Paling tidak, belanja masyarakat akan meningkat dan akan sangat positif bagi perekonomian jika gagasan “buying Indonesian” menjadi kenyataan. Oleh karena itu, pemodal lokal yang memiliki dana kini diharapkan menjadi “lawan tanding” asing di pasar modal. Jika mereka melepaskan saham yang berfundamental dan berprospek bagus, pemodal lokal tidak perlu ragu membeli. “Buy on weakness” perlu direalisasikan. Pada 2015 atau selambatnya 2016, pemodal lokal akan memanen keuntungan besar. Waktu itu, tidak ada alternatif lain bagi hot money selain kembali mengalir ke pasar modal Indonesia. Kita menghargai niat pemerintah untuk meluncurkan kebijakan lanjutan, Oktober 2013. Pada 23 Agustus 2013, pemerintah meluncurkan kebijakan menurunkan defisit transaksi berjalan/memperbaiki neraca pembayaran, menambah tax reduction untuk perusahaan berorientasi ekspor dari sektor padat karya, menurunkan impor migas dan mengembangkan BBN, menaikkan PPnBM untuk mobil completely built up (CBU) dari 75% menjadi 125-150%, dan merelaksasi kuota ekspor mineral bagi perusahaan yang meneken komitmen membangun smelter. Untuk menjaga pertumbuhan ekonomi dan daya beli masyarakat, pemerintah memberlakukan kebijakan relaksasi aturan kawasan berikat, mengurangi pajak untuk research and development (R&D), memberikan tax allowances, mengurangi PPnBM barang yang diproduksi di dalam negeri. Pemerintah memberikan juga keringanan pajak bagi industri padat karya yang tidak memPHK karyawan. Untuk mendorong investasi, pemerintah menyederhanakan perizinan, merevisi DNI, merenegosiasi kontrak karya pertambangan mineral dipercepat, dam memberikan insentif tax holiday dan tax loan untuk percepatan program investasi industri berbasis sumber daya alam. BI dan Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK) juga menetapkan sejumlah kebijakan untuk memperkuat nilai tukar rupiah dan mencegah jatuhnya harga saham ke level yang terlalu dalam. BI, misalnya, memperluas jangka waktu term deposit valas, merelaksasi ketentuan pembelian valas bagi eksportir menyesuaikan ketentuan transaksi forex swap, merelaksasi ketentuan utang luar negeri (ULN), dan menerbitkan Sertifikat Deposito Bank Indonesia (SDBI). Sedang OJK memberikam pedoman kepada emiten untuk buyback saham maksimal 20% dari modal disetor paling lambat tiga bulan tanpa melalui persetujuan rapat umum pemegang saham (RUPS). Kita tidak tahu persis kebijakan lanjutan yang akan dikeluarkan pemerintah. Hemat kita, kebijakan yang sudah diluncurkan hendaknya dilaksanakan dengan sungguh-sungguh agar tidak terkesan pemerintah hanya “mengobral” paket kebijakan ekonomi tanpa peduli hasilnya. Pemerintah tidak boleh sekadar reaktif terhadap keadaan dengan meluncurkan kebijakan tanpa tindak lanjut yang serius. Yang paling penting bagi perekonomian jangka menengah dan panjang adalah penguatan produksi berorientasi ekspor, pengurangan impor secara sistemtatis, dan pemberian sinyal yang meyakinkan kepada pasar bahwa pemerintah paham masalah dan serius menata ekonomi nasional untuk mengurangi ketergantungan eksternal. Pembangunan industri —mulai dari industri dasar dan industtri barang modal— adalah suatu keharusan agar perekonomian negeri ini tidak terus-menerus jatuh pada lubang yang sama, yakni membesarnya defisit perdagangan akibat membanjirnya impor produk industri. Oktober, Paket Ekonomi Lanjutan Diluncurkan Oleh Agustiyanti dan Grace Dwitiya Amianti | Senin, 30 September 2013 | 10:57 investor daily JAKARTA – Pemerintah tengah menyiapkan paket kebijakan lanjutan untuk mengurangi impor, mendorong ekspor, memperkuat struktur industri, dan menahan keluarnya dana asing dari Indonesia. Paket kebijakan tambahan untuk mengurangi ketergantungan terhadap faktor eksternal tersebut akan dikeluarkan Oktober ini. Paket tersebut antara lain meliputi insentif agar modal asing tidak mudah merepatriasi modal dan lebih tertarik menginvestasikan kembali atau reinvestasi (reinvestment) modalnya. Insentif juga disiapkan untuk mendorong tumbuhnya industri menengah atau antara (intermediate), yang selama turut memperbesar impor. “Kami maunya paket lanjutan ini berdimensi jangka menengah-panjang. Memang jangka pendek perlu di-address, tapi jangan sampai jangka menengah panjang dilupakan. Kadang, orang yang sedang panik hanya memikirkan jangka pendek, potong ini, larang itu, kasih subsidi, tapi itu tidak sustainable,” ujar Plt Kepala Badan Kebijakan Fiskal (BKF) Bambang PS Brodjonegoro kepada Investor Daily di Jakarta, akhir pekan lalu. Bambang Brodjonegoro menjawab pertanyaan tentang upaya apa saja yang harus dilakukan pemerintah, Bank Indonesia (BI), dan dunia usaha agar Indonesia terhindar dari ketergantungan yang tinggi terhadap eksternal, termasuk kebijakan Bank Sentral AS (The Fed) yang acapkali memicu gejolak pasar finansial dan pembalikan arus modal (sudden reversal) BKF: Pasar Obligasi Indonesia Masih Stabil Jumat, 27 September 2013 | 17:55 investor daily JAKARTA – Badan Kebijakan Fiskal (BKF) Kementerian Keuangan menilai pasar obligasi Indonesia saat ini masih relatif stabil, meskipun sempat ada ancaman pembalikan modal terkait rencana penghentian stimulus moneter oleh Bank Sentral AS (The Fed). “Kepemilikan asing paling tidak untuk domestic bond kita relatif stabil. Memang waktu itu sempat turun, ada keluar dan masuk, tapi relatif stabil,” ujar Pelaksana tugas Kepala BKF Kemenkeu Bambang Brodjonegoro di Jakarta, Jumat. Menurut dia, pasar obligasi Indonesia belum terlalu rentan, tetapi saat ini arus modal masuk dan keluar di negara berkembang Asia masih bergantung pada kondisi global, terutama modal dari AS. “Dulu jaman (presiden AS) Bush, penguatan (pasar modal) paling tajam. Sekarang rencana penarikan QE, seolah-olah turunnya paling jauh, padahal waktu naik paling jauh juga,” katanya. Namun, menurut Bambang, minat investor asing kepada pasar obligasi Indonesia yang terlalu tinggi dapat membuat “rate” menjadi rendah dan rentan terhadap gejolak yang saat ini masih terjadi di negara maju. Sebelumnya, Bank Pembangunan Asia (ADB) dalam rilis terbarunya menyebutkan adanya prospek baik untuk pasar obligasi lokal di negara berkembang Asia Timur, namun ada potensi yang harus diwaspadai terkait kebijakan moneter AS, pertumbuhan ekonomi lambat di Asia dan potensi pembalikan modal. “Pasar obligasi negara Asia dan para investor berada dalam posisi yang lebih baik dibandingkan volatilitas yang terjadi pada 1997-1998, tapi masih ada tantangan yang harus dihadapi kedepan,” ujar Kepala Kantor ADB untuk Integrasi Ekonomi Regional, Iwan Jaya Azis. Iwan menjelaskan tantangan di kawasan Asia terkait pasar obligasi adalah terkait biaya imbal hasil yang tinggi dan penurunan harga aset yang dapat menganggu kinerja neraca korporasi, serta pertumbuhan ekonomi yang melambat. ADB mencatat pada triwulan II, pasar obligasi Indonesia tumbuh 12,4% lebih tinggi atau tercatat sebesar US$118 miliar, didorong oleh pertumbuhan obligasi korporasi 23,6% sebesar US$21 miliar dan ekspansi di obligasi pemerintah 10,3%, hingga US$97 miliar. Berdasarkan perkembangan tersebut, ADB memperkirakan permintaan atas obligasi pemerintah akan meningkat pada semester II-2013, hingga target penerbitan net surat berharga negara Rp231,8 triliun akan tercapai, untuk membiayai defisit anggaran 2,4%terhadap PDB. Hingga akhir Juni 2013, tersedia dana dalam pasar obligasi dalam mata uang lokal senilai US$6,8 miliar di negara berkembang Asia Timur, seperti China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Filipina, Singapura, Thailand dan Vietnam. Untuk membangun ketahanan dan pertumbuhan pasar obligasi yang lebih kuat, ADB menyarankan adanya sumber pembiayaan yang lebih memadai, termasuk investasi penanaman modal asing yang lebih stabil dari investasi pasar modal dan mendorong investasi baru, termasuk dalam dana pensiun. Investasi pada asuransi, dana pensiun, dan dana penjaminan yang didukung data proyek yang baik, dapat membantu penyaluran dana kepada sektor transportasi, energi, telekomunikasi dan sarana infrastruktur lainnya. (ant/gor) Bilateral Swaps Alternatif Kedua Jaga Cadangan Devisa Minggu, 29 September 2013 | 21:02 investor daily JAKARTA – Kepala Ekonom Bank Danamon Anton Gunawan mengatakan agar cadangan devisa negara tidak semakin menipis maka pemerintah harus mencari alternatif lain untuk menjaga cadangan devisa, salah satu alternatif tersebut adalah menyepakati rencana bilateral swaps dari Korea Selatan. Menurut dia, selain Chiang Mai Initiative, pemerintah juga harus membutuhkan jaminan kedua yaitu bilateral swaps. Ia menjelaskan sampai pertengahan Oktober 2013 permintaan terhadap dolar AS semakin tinggi sehingga membuat nilai tukar rupiah terus melemah. Jika nilai tukar rupiah melemah, akan mempengaruhi cadangan devisa. Anton menjelaskan, bilateral swaps berfungsi sebagai jaminan kedua yang dipunyai pemerintah untuk berjaga jaga apabila cadangan devisa semakin menipis akibat melemahnya nilai tukar rupiah. Menurutnya, pemerintah harus segera mempertimbangkan rencana bilateral swaps tersebut dan merealisasikannya. “Bilateral swaps adalah second line untuk menjaga devisa, yang pertama sudah ada Chiang Mai Initiative,” ujar dia kepada Investor Daily, di Jakarta baru baru ini. Dia mengatakan bilateral swaps merupakan suatu fasilitas yang bisa digunakan pemerintah dalam keadaan darurat dan fasilitas ini harus segera digunakan pemerintah. Menurut Anton, selain mempertimbangkan rencana bilateral swaps pemerintah juga harus menjaga pasar valuta asing agar lebih stabil jika pasar valuta asing stabil maka likuiditas akan terjaga. Anton mengatakan premi dari bilateral swaps cukup rendah. Menurutnya, bilateral swaps adalah kesempatan emas yang harus dimanfaatkan pemerintah. (ID/Dho) Bersiap-siap Menghadapi “Surprise” Rabu, 18 September 2013 | 08:09 WIB KOMPAS.com — Beberapa pengusaha datang ke Rumah Perubahan dan menyatakan tiga hal ini. Pertama, Indonesia sudah memasuki fase krisis ekonomi. Kedua, kurs rupiah yang benar adalah yang berlaku saat ini. Dan Ketiga, bersiap-siap keluar dari kejayaan. Kelompok pengusaha yang lain memberikan keterangan yang berbeda. Pertama, Indonesia justru sedang sangat seksi, dan ekonominya akan terus membaik. Kedua, kurs rupiah pasti akan kembali ke posisi di bawah Rp 10.000, dan ketiga, marketing harus digenjot terus. Itulah gambaran yang dihadapi ekonomi Indonesia pada akhir 2013: tidak pasti dan sulit diramalkan karena semuanya terpulang dari tindakan apa yang diambil para pengambil keputusan. Tak ada science yang bisa menjelaskan konteks seperti ini. Juga tak ada ramalan yang bisa dipegang, yang ada hanyalah wishful thinking, pikiran dan ucapan yang muncul dari sebuah harapan. “Disengagement” Namun, ada satu hal yang pasti. Situasi seperti ini sesungguhnya merupakan saat yang tepat untuk menguji kekuatan sebuah business model. Inilah saatnya yang tepat untuk keluar dari perangkap-perangkap lama karena di “titik belok” seperti saat inilah “orang-orang di dalam” bisa diajak bicara untuk “keluar”. Dan dalam peradaban “transient” seperti saat ini, sesungguhnya bukan konteks ekonomi-politiklah yang harus ditakuti pengusaha, melainkan “perubahan” yang muncul tiba-tiba dari pendatang-pendatang baru atau pemain-pemain di luar industri yang mengubah seluruh peta usaha. Mereka datang dengan bisnis model baru yang lebih fit dengan kemauan konsumen dan perubahan business landscape. Ini jauh lebih sulit diatasi karena sangat mungkin kejadian yang tiba-tiba itu hanya menimpa satu-dua pengusaha yang terlena, yang justru sedang eksis atau menjadi market leader. Sebaliknya, kondisi sosial-ekonomi yang biasa ditakuti secara umum (semisal inflasi, defisit neraca perdagangan, perubahan kurs, kenaikan upah, dll) justru menimpa semua orang pada saat bersamaan sehingga Anda tidak pernah merasa sendirian. Ambil contoh saja surprise yang dibuat oleh XL dalam industri telco. Bagaimana tiba-tiba XL (2005) mengubah model bisnisnya dari premium category ke minute factory. Indosat dan Telkomsel saat itui hanya menanggapi langkah XL dengan upaya marketing sebagai perang harga. Padahal, XL telah mengubah model bisnisnya menjadi low cost carrier. Saat harga ditutunkan, model bisnisnya telah berubah, sedangkan pesaing-pesaingnya tak melakukan internal restructuring. Selain dari dalam industri, surprise berbahaya juga bisa datang dari luar industri. Dan lagi-lagi ide-ide gila itu justru datang disaat para pelaku usaha merasa terancam oleh krisis ekonomi yang membuat mereka tak punya pilihan lain selain bangkrut atau berinovasi. Tak pernah terbayangkan oleh para bankir misalnya, ketika tiba-tiba perusahaan non-bank seperti Merrill Lynch membuka usaha Cash Management. Dalam tempo sekejap, jutaan account nasabah korporat berpindah kepada Merrill Lynch, dan bank-bank tradisional kehilangan funding. Bank pun beralih dari eksploitasi bunga kepada fee-base. Tetapi, itu baru mereka lakukan beberapa tahun setelah Merrill Lynch mencuri pasar mereka. Surprise seperti itu sekali lagi bisa terjadi pada masa krisis ketika semua pemain utama fokus ke dalam, kepada cost-structure, product development, dan promosi. Perhatikanlah saat Maxwell House dan Nescafe bertarung habis-habisan mengembangkan kopi bubuknya agar menjadi market leader. Pasar mereka tiba-tiba berkurang dicuri oleh pendatang baru dengan model bisnis “kedai”, Starbucks. Banyak perubahan yang terjadi dan luput dari perhatian para CEO. Perhatikanlah apa jadinya bila Telkomsel sukses memanfaatkan fasilitas pembayaran via pulsa yang sudah diberikan oleh otoritas moneter. Bukan saja menjadi pelaku di sektor keuangan, cara konsumen berbelanja pun akan berubah. Tak pernah terbayangkan oleh banyak operator telepon bahwa Google akan menjadi pesaing mereka. Demikian juga tak terbayangkan bagaimana pelaku-pelaku jasa kesehatan akan berhadapan dengan Wall Mart yang memasuki bisnis ini. Semua surprise itu terjadi pada masa-masa sulit. Ibarat pohon berbuah, mereka justru baru berbunga dan mengembangkan keturunan justru di musim panas ketika tanah-tanahnya mengering dan airnya cuma tinggal sedikit. Pada saat itulah, perusahaan dituntut melonggarkan ikatannya dengan aset-aset dan keterampilan lama, melakukan disengagement secara kreatif dan memasuki era baru dengan inovasi. Itulah perubahan. Editor : Erlangga Djumena Kementerian Keuangan (Kemenkeu) tengah melakukan aksi wait and see terkait keputusan Bank Sentral Amerika Serikat (AS), the Federal Reserve, terkait pengurangan pembelian obligasi yang akan dilakukan. Pasalnya, likuiditas dana asing ke Indonesia masih tinggi. Direktur Direktorat Jenderal Pengelolaan Utang (DJPU) Kemenkeu Robert Pakpahan mengatakan, membaiknya equity markets di Amerika Serikat (AS), membuat likuiditas di Indonesia sedikit mengalami outflow. Menurutnya, jika memang pemangkasan tersebut dilakukan, maka likuiditas yang ke luar, diperkirakan tidak akan banyak.(okezone/yc) 700 investor Korea siap berinvestasi di Indonesia Oleh Emma Ratna Fury – Jumat, 13 September 2013 | 17:55 WIB kontan JAKARTA. Indonesia bakal kedatangan 700 pengusaha asal Korea yang tersebar di 63 negara. Kedatangan pengusaha Korea tersebut tak lain untuk melihat potensi investasi yang ada di negeri ini. “Indonesia memiliki potensi yang cukup baik dan kuat dalam 30 tahun terakhir. Sehingga kami percaya dengan adanya potensi tersebut, investor dapat menanamkan modal disini,” ujar Kim woo Jae, Ketua Overseas Korean Trader Association (OKTA) usai menemui Menteri Perindustrian MS Hidayat di di Jakarta, Jumat (13/9). Pertemuan Kim woo Jae dengan Menteri Perindustrian tak lain untuk membicarakan konferensi ekonomi World OKTA yang akan diselenggarakan di Bali pada 24 Oktober 2013. Kim berharap pada acara tersebut, MS Hidayat bisa memberikan pidato pada pembukaan dan juga memaparkan peluang-peluang investasi yang dapat dimasuki oleh para pengusaha Korea. Menurut Kim keinginan pengusaha Korea untuk berinvestasi di Indonesia cukup besar. Hal itu melihat dari pengalaman pengusaha asal Korea yang telah berinvestasi disini. Mulai dari yang berinvestasi pada bidang industri elektronik, baja, kayu hingga baju. “Kami berharap konferensi ini akan membuat investor-investor tertarik berinvestasi di Indonesia,” ujarnya. Orang Super Kaya Indonesia Bertambah Banyak Sabtu, 14 September 2013 | 19:11 WIB KOMPAS.com – Jumlah miliarder Indonesia tahun ini ternyata bertambah banyak. Berdasarkan riset Wealth-X dan UBS yang dipublkasikan Rabu (11/9/2013), orang super kaya Indonesia meningkat 10,2 persen dibanding tahun lalu. Indonesia mempunyai 865 ultra high net worth (UHNW) individual alias orang super kaya dengan total aset 130 miliar dollar AS, naik dari 785 orang dengan total kekayaan 120 miliar dollar AS pada tahun lalu. Laporan tersebut juga menyebutkan, meski keadaan ekonomi global masih diintai ketidakpastian, jumlah kaum tajir di dunia tahun ini bertambah 6 persen dibanding tahun lalu menjadi 199.235 orang. Sedangkan total aset para orang super kaya itu mencapai 28 triliun dollar AS, naik 2 triliun dollar AS dibanding tahun lalu. Angka ini lebih besar dari produk domestik bruto (PDB) India. Wealth X dan UBS mendefinisikan UHNW sebagai individu yang memiliki aset lebih dari 30 juta dollar AS atau Rp 330 miliar dengan kurs Rp 11.000 per dollar AS. Sebanyak 2.000 miliarder dunia menguasai kekayaan 6,5 triliun dollar AS. Ini merupakan 23 persen dari total kekayaan UHNW. Berdasarkan laporan tersebut, jumlah orang super kaya di Asia Tenggara juga ternyata melesat. Mengutip Wall Street Journal, Thailand menjadi negara dengan pertumbuhan UHNW tertinggi, yakni 15,2 persen atau 720 individu naik dibanding tahun lalu yang mencapai 625 orang. Jumlah total kekayaan miliarder negara Gajah Putih ini mencapai 110 miliar dollar AS, naik dari 95 miliar dollar AS tahun 2012. Sementara miliarder Vietnam naik 14,7 persen. Sedangkan miliarder Singapura hanya beringsut sedikit, yakni 3,8 persen dibanding tahun lalu. Menurut Wealth X dan UBS, kuatnya konsumsi domestik dan pertumbuhan kelas menengah menjadi pemicu bertambahnya kaum tajir di Asia Tenggara. Ini terjadi di Indonesia dan Filipina, meski pasar keuangan keduanya sedang lesu. Sumber : KONTAN Editor : Erlangga Djumena September 14, 2013, 7:24 AM SGT IFC Targets More Investment in Indonesia ByBen Otto wsj JAKARTA, Indonesia—Indonesia’s growth is slowing and its currency has plunged to its weakest point in years, but the private sector arm of the World Bank says a downcast market hasn’t changed its view that Southeast Asia’s largest economy remains a sound bet. Reuters A worker walks between dried fish during dry fish processing at Marunda beach in North Jakarta on Sept. 2. The International Finance Corporation said Thursday it increased its investments in Indonesia by almost 50% in the fiscal year to June, to $438 million, meeting a previously stated target of $400 to $600 million. It said it hopes to push its Indonesian investment next year to at least $500 million—and potentially double that—despite the country’s likely retreat to growth of less than 6% this year and next. “We think it’s a good time for other investors to be continuing to look at Indonesia,” said Karin Finkelston, the IFC’s vice president for Asia Pacific, told reporters. She highlighted commonly cited challenges to development in Indonesia—inadequate infrastructure, a dearth of higher skills and low competitiveness rankings—but said the IFC is “confident things are moving in the right direction.” It’s been a nervous few weeks in Indonesia, with local markets still collecting themselves after the summer exodus of foreign cash from emerging economies. In the past two weeks, Bank Indonesia has raised its benchmark rate 75 basis points amid the sudden appearance of double-digit inflation and a currency that plunged 6% in the month of August alone. All of that marks what appears to be the end of a three-year phase of near record growth rates in Indonesia’s trillion-dollar economy. The country had been one of the world’s fastest-growing large economies in recent years, enjoying better than 6% GDP growth even during the global downturn, largely due to commodity exports and the robust domestic consumption of a rising middle class of tens of millions of people. But waning global demand has cut into the country’s ability to sell coal and other commodities, producing trade deficits—including a record deficit of more than $2 billion in July—that have rattled investors and left the country with the spike in inflation, a weakened currency and many companies saying they’re waiting on major moves until the smoke clears. An upcoming election year, and all the stalled government systems that come with it, adds to the worry. Sarvesh Suri, the IFC’s country manager in Indonesia, said the country would weather the current economic conditions, in part because companies have kept debt levels low and relatively unexposed to foreign currency mismatches. “People learned from the financial crisis,” Mr. Suri said. “Most of the [recent] corporate lending was in the domestic currency.” The Washington-based IFC invests in for-profit projects to promote development, often in the form of loans. Indonesia is third largest in IFC’s investment portfolio for East Asia and the Pacific, after China and Vietnam. The IFC declined to list its individual loans in Indonesia in full. Of the $438 million invested in the year to July, it said $336 million went to manufacturing, agribusiness and services companies, with the remainder to infrastructure development and financial markets. In the past, IFC in Indonesia has put money into clean energy projects, mobile banking, port expansion, and in support for banks to increase micro-financing, and said next year it would in invest in infrastructure, agribusiness, geothermal and access to finance, among others. Last year, it invested $300 million in eight projects here. In manufacturing, Mr. Suri said the IFC is investing in companies that are exports-oriented, hoping to add value to Indonesia production and help balance out a spate of recent trade deficits that the current downturn in economic conditions has drawn in stark relief. Indonesia depends heavily on foreign investment to help plug its soaring current account deficit. FDI has hit record levels in recent years, although there are signs that growth in investments is slowing as falling commodity prices push mining companies to pull back on new ventures. Mrs. Finkelston said Indonesia remains fundamentally strong, and that that for foreign investors opportunity is high. Across East Asia and the Pacific, IFC’s new investments in the 2012-2013 fiscal year were up 15% to almost $3.5 billion in more than 70 projects. Investments hit a record $6 billion across Asia, and a record $25 billion global Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) mengungkapkan Indonesia menempatkan diri sebagai konsumen (nasabah) terbesar di urutan nomor satu di antara negara-negara berkembang. Dari pinjaman tersebut, negara ini juga tercatat berada di peringkat teratas yang mencapai hasil memuaskan. “Di antara negara-negara berkembang yang menjadi nasabah JBIC, Indonesia berada di urutan pertama yang hasilnya (dari pinjaman) memuaskan. Inilah kenyataannya,” kata Chief Executive Officer (CEO) JBIC, Hiroshi Watanabe di Kantor Kementerian Keuangan, Jakarta.(liputan6/hal) Lembaga investasi global, International Finance Corporation (IFC) berencana menggelontorkan dana investasi senilai USD1 miliar pada tahun fiskal 2013 yang akan berakhir pada tanggal 30 Juni 2014, atau dua kali lipat dibanding tahun fiskal 2012 yang berakhir pada 30 Juni 2013 sebesar USD438 juta. “Investasi kami di Indonesia tumbuh hampir 50 persen dibandingkan tahun sebelumnya dan akan ditingkatkan dua kali lipat di tahun fiskal selanjutnya,” ujar IFC Indonesia Country Manager Sarvesh Suri di Gedung BEI, Jakarta, Kamis (12/9/2013). Besarnya nilai investasi yang akan digelontorkan anggota kelompok Bank Dunia ini lantaran peluang investasi di Indonesia dipandang masih menarik dalam jangka panjang. (sindo/dk) Menteri-menteri Ekonomi Rapat Pagi di Kantor Hatta Rajasa, Ini Hasilnya Zulfi Suhendra – detikfinance Kamis, 12/09/2013 09:38 WIB Jakarta – Jajaran Menteri ekonomi pagi ini menggelar rapat koordinasi di kantor Kementerian Perekonomian, Jalan Lapangan Banteng. Apa yang dibahas? Menteri Koordinator bidang Perekonomian Hatta Rajasa mengatakan, rapat tersebut merupakan rapat rutin yang dilakukan terkait laporan para pejabat Eselon I di setiap Kementerian sektor ekonomi. Juga tak lupa membahas roadmap hasil 4 paket kebijakan ekonomi. “Jadi ini update rutin, laporan pejabat eselon I seluruh kementerian tentang roadmap hasil-hasil dari 4 paket kebijakan ekonomi kita. Dari laporan tersebut rata-rata seluruh produk kebijakan berupa peraturan baik menteri maupun pemerintah tuntas,” kata Hatta di Kantor Kemenko Perekonomian, Jalan Lapangan Banteng, Kamis (12/9/2013). Selain itu, yang ditekankan dalam rapat yang berlangsung sejak pukul 07.00 WIB pagi ini membahas mengenai kebijakan mewajibkan bahan bakar solar dicampur 10% biodiesel. Hatta mengatakan, bulan September ini hal tersebut siap diimplementasikan. “Saya ingin sampaikan pertemuan tadi malam juga di Menperin melaporkan tidak ada masalah mengenai ketersediaan, dan ini sudah akan dilelang. September ini kita bisa yakinkan untuk PSO 100 persen bisa dipenuhi. Lelang biodisel di Pertamina,” kata Hatta yang nampak terburu-buru. Selain Hatta, menteri lain seperti Mendag Gita Wirjawan, MenPU Djoko Kirmanto, Menperin MS Hidayat, MenBUMN Dahlan Iskan, Wamenhub Bambang Susantono, dan jajaran pejabat lainnya hadir. Mereka nampak terburu-buru karena langsung bergegas menghadiri pertemuan di Kantor Kementerian Keuangan bersama Wakil Presiden Boediono. Perlu diketauhi Presiden Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono beberapa waktu lalu mengeluarkan 4 paket Kebijakan antara lain : Menjaga daya beli masyarakat Menjaga inflasi Mengurangi defisit transaksi berjalan Menjaga PHK (zul/dru) China akan membenamkan investasi US$ 20 miliar Oleh Tendi Mahadi – Rabu, 11 September 2013 | 07:01 WIB kontan JAKARTA. Indonesia masih menjadi negara tujuan investasi yang menarik bagi investor. Buktinya, Badan usaha Milik Negara (BUMN) asal China menyatakan kesiapannya untuk membenamkan investasi hingga US$ 20 miliar di kawasan Indonesia timur. Menteri Perindustrian MS Hidayat bilang setidaknya akan ada 10 perusahaan BUMN asal China yang akan berinvestasi di berbagai proyek. Menurutnya, sebagian besar investor ini akan membenamkan modalnya di kawasan industri dan smelter di Kalimantan dan Sulawesi. Hidayat bilang, nilai investasi dari masing-masing investor ini bisa mencapai US$ 2 miliar. Artinya, jika ada 10 perusahaan yang akan membenamkan investasinya, maka potensi investasi yang masuk ke Indonesia bisa mencapai US$ 20 miliar. “Ini termasuk untuk investasi jangka panjang seperti pelabuhan,” ujarnya, Senin (9/9). Menurutnya, pemerintah Indonesia dan China telah membicarakan wacana mengenai rencana investasi ini di sela-sela pertemuan negara anggota G20 belum lama ini. Rencananya, kata Hidayat BUMN China bakal melakukan kunjungan kenegaraan ke Indonesia sekaligus menandatangani perjanjian kerjasama baik antar pemerintah maupun kerjasama business to business. Hidayat bilang, pemerintah mensyaratkan investor asal China ini untuk menggandeng mitra lokal dalam menjalankan bisnisnya di Indonesia. Nantinya, mitra lokal yang memiliki izin penambangan akan memasok bahan baku mineral untuk industri pengolahan alias smelter. DEVISA HASIL EKSPOR Aliran devisa hasil ekspor mulai meningkat Oleh Nina Dwiantika – Selasa, 10 September 2013 | 23:02 WIB kontan JAKARTA. Implementasi kebijakan pemulangan devisa hasil ekspor (DHE) yang diterapkan sejak awal Juli 2012 mulai menunjukkan hasil. Ini tecermin dari semakin tingginya aliran DHE yang masuk ke perbankan domestik. Bank Indonesia (BI) mencatat, aliran DHE melalui bank devisa di dalam negeri secara kumulatif pada periode Januari sampai Juni 2013 meningkat ketimbang periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya. Berdasarkan data BI yang terbit Senin (9/9), aliran DHE yang masuk ke bank domestik hingga Juni 2013 mencapai US$ 64,41 juta, setara dengan 84% dari total DHE. Jumlah ini meningkat dibandingkan aliran DHE ke bank domestik per Juni 2012 sebesar US$ 62,623 juta atau setara 81% dari total DHE. Sedangkan, DHE yang diterima melalui bank di luar negeri menurun dari US$ 14,323 juta atau 18,6% dari total DHE menjadi US$ 12,257 juta atau 16,0% dari total DHE. Direktur Eksekutif Hubungan Masyarakat BI Difi A. Johansyah, mengatakan berdasarkan pemantauan BI, lima komoditas terbesar penyumbang penerimaan DHE adalah batubara, minyak sawit, produk kimia, tekstil, dan produk peralatan listrik. Guna meningkatkan kepatuhan eksportir terhadap ketentuan DHE, Difi mengatakan, ada 145 eksportir yang dikenai penangguhan pelayanan ekspor selama kuartal II 2013. Sebagian besar eksportir tersebut bergerak di bidang usaha tekstil, alumunium, hewan dan produk peternakan, dan produk kimia logam. Perlu payung hukum lebih kuat Difi mengatakan, saat ini BI terus memantau kepatuhan eksportir migas melalui laporan incoming transfer dari luar negeri serta laporan rincian transaksi ekspor (RTE) yang disampaikan melalui bank devisa domestik. Nah, untuk meningkatkan efektivitas ketentuan DHE, bank sentral akan berupaya meningkatkan pemahaman eksportir dan bank melalui sosialisasi dan coaching-clinique. Selain itu, BI juga akan meningkatkan kecepatan penyampaian informasi hasil monitoring DHE kepada eksportir. Selain itu, BI akan melakukan koordinasi secara periodik dengan pihak terkait seperti Satuan Kerja Khusus Pelaksana Kegiatan Usaha Hulu Minyak dan Gas Bumi (SKK Migas), Direktorat Jenderal Bea dan Cukai, Direktorat Jenderal Pajak, dan Badan Pusat Statistik. Direktur Bank Tabungan Negara (BTN) Evi Firmansyah, menyampaikan Indonesia memerlukan payung hukum aturan DHE yang lebih kuat. Dengan begitu, para pemegang valuta asing (valas) lebih percaya menempatkan dana mereka di bank-bank domestik. “Kalau aturan itu dijadikan undang-undang, hasil devisa bakal benar-benar masuk ke bank di Indonesia,” kata Evi. Ekonom Bank Standard Chartered, Fauzi Ichsan, mengatakan kebijakan DHE menguntungkan perbankan dalam negeri. Sebab, likuiditas valas di perbankan dan di pasar semakin besar. “Aturan itu bisa memupuk kebutuhan valas di dalam negeri yang sangat kita butuhkan saat ini,” kata Fauzi. Afrika Timur jadi pasar produk asal Indonesia Oleh Umar Idris – Senin, 09 September 2013 | 21:23 WIB kontan KENYA. Duta Besar Indonesia untuk Kenya, Sunu M. Soemarno, menuturkan Grup Salim merupakan satu-satunya kelompok usaha yang berani membangun pabriknya di Kenya. Padahal banyak kelompok usaha lain dari Indonesia yang juga menjadikan Kenya sebagai target pasarnya. Sebut saja seperti Grup Mayora, yang sampai saat ini baru sebatas menjual produknya di Kenya. Padahal produk biskuit yang diproduksi oleh Mayora tersebut sudah mendominasi sepertiga pasar di Uganda, tetapi Mayora belum juga membangun pabrik. “Kami menyadari, hambatannya adalah kesan tentang Afrika masih kurang baik. Padahal kenyataannya tidak sejelek itu, masih banyak potensi di sini,” tutur Sunu. Menurut Sunu, banyak insentif yang diberikan oleh negara-negara di Afrika Timur dalam menarik investor dari luar untuk berinvestasi secara langsung. Salah satunya fasilitas yang bisa dinikmati yaitu pembebasan biaya impor dan ekspor ke semua negara anggota Afrika Timur. Meski begitu, lanjut Sunu, memang ada hambatan lain yang masih menjadi kenala, yakni mengenai kebijakan non-tarif yang dapat diberlakukan di setiap negara Afrika Timur. Negara yang tergabung dalam Komunitas ekonomi Afrika Timur antara lain Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda dan Burundi. Selain biskuit, produk dari Indonesia yang banyak dijumpai seperti minuman suplemen UC100, obat nyamuk Vape, dan semir sepatu merk Kiwi. Perusahaan-perusahaan minyak goreng dan sabun di Kenya juga membeli bahan mentah dari Indonesia. Surplus perdagangan Berdasarkan data Kedutaan Besar Republik Indonesia (KBRI) di Kenya, hubungan perdanganan antara kedua negara masih menguntungkan pihak Indonesia. Berdasarkan data KBRI, total perdagangan Indonesia dengan Kenya tahun lalu nilainya mencapai US$300 juta pada 2012. Dimana dari nilai itu sebesar US$266,94 juta merupakan ekspor dari Indonesia ke Kenya. “Perdagangan Indonesia dengan Kenya masih surplus pada 2012,” terang Ardha Erlangga Arby, Atase Perdagangan KBRI Nairobi, Kenya kepada KONTAN. Pertemuan G-20: Indonesia Jajaki Perjanjian Bilateral Swap Demis Rizky Gosta – Minggu, 08 September 2013, 11:45 WIB Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Pemerintah menggunakan forum G-20 untuk mendekati beberapa negara terkait bilateral swap agreement. Menteri Keuangan Chatib Basri mengatakan sudah ada beberapa negara yang terbuka membentuk bilateral swap agreement dengan Indonesia. Perjanjian dengan negara-negara tersebut, jelasnya, akan melengkapi bilateral swap agreement dengan Jepang yang bernilai US$12 miliar. “Kita coba cari lagi, supaya dengan begitu, market-nya tenang. Bahwa kita ada second line of defense,” kata Menkeu di Bandara Halim Perdanakusuma hari ini, Minggu (8/9/2013). Namun, Chatib menolak memaparkan negara mana saja yang sedang didekati Indonesia. Pemerintah baru akan mengumumkan mitra bilateral swap agreement setelah kesepakatan dicapai. Bank Indonesia sebelumnya mengumumkan perpanjangan bilateral swap agreement dengan Menteri Keuangan Jepang melalui Bank of Japan senilai US$12 miliar yang berlaku efektif 31 Agustus 2013. Selain bilateral swap agreement, pemerintah juga mengantongi dana siaga (standby loan) senilai US$5,5 miliar yang berasal dari Bank Dunia, ADB, Jepang, dan Australia. Editor : Sutarno SBY Bawa Pulang 11 “Oleh-Oleh” dari G-20 Minggu, 08 September 2013 16:54 wibWidi Agustian – Okezone Pertama, pertumbuhan harus terus dijaga. Kedua, economic recovery harus terus dilanjutkan. Ketiga, diperlukan policy coordination. Keempat, investasi. Kelima, job. Keenam, international trade. Ketujuh, reformasi keuangan. Kesembilan, development. Kesepuluh, anti-korupsi. Kesebelas, terakhir, stabilitas energi. JAKARTA – Terkait hasil-hasil pembicaraan dalam pertemuan puncak G-20, Presiden Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) menyampaikan ada 11 hal yang harus dilakukan terkait dengan perkembangan gejolak ekonomi Indonesia. Pertama, pertumbuhan harus terus dijaga. Kedua, economic recovery harus terus dilanjutkan. Ketiga, diperlukan policy coordination. Keempat, investasi. Kelima, job. Keenam, international trade. Ketujuh, reformasi keuangan. Kesembilan, development. Kesepuluh, anti-korupsi. Kesebelas, terakhir, stabilitas energi. “Di tengah kemajuan negara maju, negara emerging country, seperti BRICS, ekonominya mengalami tekanan. Dengan demikian, tekanan ekonomi bukan hanya dihadapi oleh Indonesia,” kata Presiden SBY seperti dilansir dari laman Setkab, Minggu (8/9/2013). Presiden Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) dan Ibu Negara Ani Yudhoyono beserta rombongan, telah bertolak dari Bandar Udara Pulkovo, St Petersburg, Rusia, Sabtu (7/9/2013) pukul 12.10 waktu setempat, dan direncanakan akan tiba di Bandara Halim Perdanakusuma pada hari Minggu (8/9/2013) pukul 06.00 WIB. Presiden dilepas oleh Duta Besar Republik Indonesia untuk Republik Federasi Rusia, Djauhari Oratmangun. (wdi) Peringkat Daya Saing RI Masih Kalah dari Malaysia dan Thailand Oleh Syahid Latif Posted: 04/09/2013 13:50 Liputan6.com, Jakarta : Meski mengalami kenaikan 12 tingkat atau tertinggi diantara negara- negara G20, daya saing Indonesia masih kalah dibandingkan negara-negara lain di kawasan Asia Tenggara. Apalagi dibandingkan Singapura yang menempati posisi kedua dunia. Dikutip dari Laporan terbaru World Competitiveness Report 2013-2014 dari World Economic Forum (WEF), Rabu (4/9/2013) melaporkan peringkat Indonesia di posisi 38 dunia hanya bertaut satu tingkat dari Thailand yang menempati posisi 37 dunia. Namun dibandingkan Singapura, Malaysia, dan Brunei Darussalam, peringkat Indonesia jauh di bawah ketiga negara tersebut. WEF melaporkan peringkat tiga negara Asia Tenggara itu masing-masing berada di posisi 2, 24, dan 26 dunia. Meski kalah dari keempat negara utama di kawasan serumpun tersebut, daya saing ekonomi Indonesia masih lebih baik dari negara-negara seperti Filipina yang menempati posisi 59 dunia, Vietnam (70), Laos (81), Kamboja (88), dan Myamar (139). Sebagai informasi, WEF telah menerbitkan laporan daya saing ekonomi negara-negara di dunia lebih dari tiga dekade terakhir. Sejak 2005, WEF telah menerapkan analisa daya saing berdasarkan Global Competitiveness Index (CGI) yang mengkaji secara mendalam kondisi makro dan mikro ekonomi sebuah negara. Dalam mendefinisikan daya saing sebuah negara, WEF menekankan penilaian pada 12 pilar yang terbagi ke dalam tiga kelompok besar yaitu institusi, kebijakan, dan faktor penunjang produktivitas. (Shd)

ADB: Nilai Tukar Bukan Penentu Prospek Ekonomi Wike Dita Herlinda – Selasa, 03 September 2013, 20:08 WIB Bisnis.com, JAKARTA — Asia harus menjalankan transformasi struktural jika ingin naik kelas sebagai kawasan dengan pendapatan tinggi, dan tidak hanya menggantungkan pembangunan pada percepatan laju pertumbuhan. Jesus Felipe, penasehat Departemen Ekonomi dan Penelitian di Bank Pembangunan Asia (ADB) berpendapat dewasa ini negara berkembang seperti Indonesia terlalu khawatir dengan masalah nilai tukar, padahal itu bukan faktor penentu prospek ekonomi dalam jangka panjang. “Transformasi struktural justru merupakan kunci paling mendasar untuk memajukan Asia. Selama ini ada lima poin utama yang hilang dalam pembangunan di negara berkembang Asia,” ujarnya di Jakarta, Selasa (3/9/2013). Pertama, menurut Felipe, masalah peningkatan pendapatan per kapita yang berbanding lurus dengan penurunan aktivitas agrikultur dan angka bekerja. Kedua, peningkatkan ekspor yang dibarengi dengan diversifikasi dan upgrading produk. Ketiga adalah modernisasi perusahaan. Keempat adalah penggenjotan ekonomi perkotaan melalui urbanisasi. Kelima, pembangunan yang disertai dengan perubahan sosial. Dia menggambarkan fase pembangunan di banyak negara maju diawali dengan penurunan kapasitas agrikultur yang dilanjutkan dengan industrialisasi, sebelum beralih orientasi ke sektor jasa. Fase industrialisasi itulah yang banyak diabaikan oleh negara berkembang. “Lebih dari 700 juta warga Asia bekerja di sektor agrikultur. Inilah yang perlu dimodernisasi. Mereka tidak bisa mengabaikan fase industrialisasi jika ingin menjadi kawasan berpendapatan tinggi,” katanya. Selain itu, Felipe menambahkan, kualitas pendidikan merupakan poin yang sangat esensial untuk melakukan diversifikasi industrial. Jika hal itu tercapai, negara berkembang dapat mulai menggeser basis manunfaktur ke teknologi tinggi seperti kimia, permesinan, dan barang elektronik. Raden Pardede, co-founder Creco Research Institute berpendapat ada beberapa faktor yang mutlak diperlukan untuk dapat melakukan transformasi struktural. Faktor itu a.l. permintaan dan supplai termasuk pendidikan dan skill, demografi dan geografi, kapabilitas organisasi, serta kebijakan spesifik. “Masalahnya, sejak krisis 1998, interaksi antara ekonomi dan politik di Indonesia menjadi tidak produktif. Akibatnya, fase transformasi struktural jadi melambat setelah 2000, diiringi dengan booming ekspor komoditas,” jelasnya. Menurut Pardede, Indonesia terlalu bergantung pada komoditas batu bara, migas, dan CPO, sehingga tingkat diversifikasi ekspor sangat rendah. Pada 2000, manufaktur mendominasi sekitar 58% perekonomian dan tahun lalu sektor itu bahkan tidak mencapai 40% karena digantikan oleh ekspor komoditas. Untuk itu, solusi yang ditawarkan Pardede adalah investasi modal manusia dan infrastruktur, serta fasilitasi pemerintah. “Kita juga harus mempertahankan keseimbangan lingkungan makro ekonomi,” pungkasnya. FASE TERBURUK TELAH BERLALU Sementara itu, fase terburuk di pasar negara berkembang Asia dinilai telah berlalu setelah para investor menarik keluar modal miliaran dolar bulan lalu, di tengah kekhawatiran akan pengurangan stimulus Federal Reserve Amerika Serikat. Analisis itu dipaparkan oleh Nomura Holdings Inc, yang mengklaim prospek pasar berkembang Asia masih ‘sangat positif’ dalam 5—10 tahun mendatang. Jumlah investasi juga diperkirakan kembali menyesuaikan kapasitas ekonomi negara-negara di kawasan itu. “[Pasar berkembang] telah melalui fase krisis terburuk, tapi tidak berarti masing-masing negara akan berhenti menemui tantangan besar,” jelas Steve Ashley, Kepala Pasar Global Nomura yang berbasis di London, sebagaimana dikutip Bloomberg. Kapitalisasi pasar terhadap saham yang diperdagangkan di China (http://www.bisnis.com/ekonomi-china-melambat-adb-pangkas-proyeksi-pertumbuhan-ekonomi-asia)mendominasi 37% produk domestik bruto (PDB) negara itu, dibandingkan dengan level 107% di AS. Proporsi untuk Indonesia adalah 45%, sedangkan Filipina dan India masing-masing 69% dan 54%. Ashley berpendapat pasar telah kecanduan program quantitative easing, sehingga mereka harus menghentikan ketergantungan itu. Itulah, menurutnya, yang menjelaskan turbulensi yang terjadi dalam pasar berkembang dewasa ini. “Demi menjaga kesehatan pasar keuangan dalam jangka panjang, sangat penting untuk melakukan normalisasi,” tegasnya. Menurutnya, pasar tidak seharusnya takut terhadap normalisasi. Secara historis, paruh pertama dari siklus pengetatan moneter biasanya diikuti oleh pertumbuhan ekonomi yang mumpuni dan performa risiko aset yang baik. “Menjelang akhir dari siklus pengetatan, Anda baru akan melihat performa risiko aset yang mulai menurun,” jelasnya. Diversifikasi Kelompok Negara Asia: ———————————————————————————————————– Grup 1 Kelompok negara industrial modern yang berbasis ekonomi jasa, seperi Jepang dan Korea Selatan. Grup 2 Kelompok negara yang melakukan industrialisasi, tetapi belum maksimal, seperti Malaysia, Thailand, dan China. Grup 3 Kelompok negara yang masih bergantung pada agrikultur, seperti India, Pakistan dan Bangladesh. ———————————————————————————————————– Sumber: ADB, 2013 Perbandingan Basis Sektor dan Angka Bekerja di Asia (2012): —————————————————————————————————Sektor: Dominasi dalam ekonomi: Cakupan tenaga kerja: —————————————————————————————————Agrikultur 10,9% 42,8% Industri 40,2% 23,62% Jasa 48,9% 33,58% —————————————————————————————————Sumber: ADB, 2013 Editor : Martin Sihombing September 4, 2013, 7:09 AM Silver Lining in Indonesia’s Weak Currency wsj Indonesia’s rupiah has been one of the worst-performing currencies in the world recently, losing 6% in August alone. The currency is being hit hard because of its expanding current account deficit caused as its export growth fails to keep up with its imports. For years, Indonesia enjoyed trade surpluses on the back of its commodity exports to fast-growing nations like China. But a downtick in global demand has cut into exports and left the country with a spate of trade deficits. On Monday, Southeast Asia’s largest economy announced a $2.3 billion trade deficit, its largest since new recordkeeping began in 2008. The weaker rupiah is already making imports more expensive, dampening demand for products and services from abroad as it makes those products more expensive and some local products more competitive. That could help turn around the trade deficit. In the long run, the rupiah’s volatility may scare some investors, but the growth story in Indonesia will remain intact, economists and market players said. “The key is more about whether Indonesia can maintain its stability, which has been its main competitive advantage compared to other economies,” said Sanidaga Uno, head of Saratoga Investments, one of Indonesia’s largest private equity funds. “We remain optimistic mid-to-long term, as nothing structural has changed in Indonesia. In the short term, there will be volatility.” Politicians, however, may not be happy to have to explain this short-term volatility. Indonesia is already in the midst of a long election season ahead of next year’s national elections, and the country’s leaders will want to avoid too much inflation, which can be triggered by the high cost of imports. Inflation hurts small business owners and low-income consumers the most. Inflation is now on pace to hit more than 9% by year’s end. Before the government raised fuel prices this year—a move economists said was long overdue to cut costly fuel subsidies—it had been targeting inflation around 4.5%. At the ITC Kuningan mall in South Jakarta, Edo, a hand-phone seller who goes by one name, said he had to increase prices of Apple’s iPhone 5 by more than 10% in August, to around $725. “I’m worried,” he said. “I usually sell 10 a month, but since the price increase, it’s just been five.” In the past month, companies ranging from Starbucks to budget taxis have all raised prices, and others like Toyota have plans to do so soon. Still, some economists are confident that volatility and inflation rates will come down and leave Indonesia in a better place in terms of its trade balance. “Despite the disappointing trade headline, we remain optimistic that the fuel price hike, upward monetary policy normalization and weakness in the IDR will help external imbalances correct gradually in the coming months,” HSBC economist Su Sian Lim wrote in a research note Tuesday. –Andreas Ismar in Jakarta contributed to this article. Pasar Lihat Sinyal Pelambatan Bertambah Oleh: Ahmad Munjin pasarmodal – Selasa, 3 September 2013 | 18:59 WIB INILAH.COM, Jakarta – IHSG menguat tapi rupiah melemah. Pasar melihat bertambahnya sinyal pelambatan ekonomi Indonesia setelah memburuknya data-data ekonomi yang dirilis kemarin. Analis senior Monex Investindo Futures Zulfirman Basir mengatakan, pelemahan rupiah hari ini masih terimbas oleh buruknya serangkaian data ekonomi Indonesia yang dirilis kemarin. Data-data tersebut membuat investor khawatir. Inflasi Agustus naik dan defisit neraca perdagangan memburuk. “Karena itu, rupiah ditutup pada level terlemahnya 11.050 setelah mencapai level terkuatnya 10.975 dari posisi pembukaan di level terkuatnya itu,” katanya kepada INILAH.COM, di Jakarta, Selasa (3/9/2013). Kurs rupiah terhadap dolar AS di pasar spot valas antar bank Jakarta, Selasa (3/9/2013) ditutup melemah 80 poin (0,72%) ke posisi 11.050/11.080 dari posisi kemarin 10.970/11.000. Inflasi bulan Agustus, kata Firman, memang lebih rendah dibandingkan Juli, tapi pasar melihat hal itu tidak ternormalisasi. Inflasi tahunannya naik ke 8,79% yang justru dilihat pasar lebih stabil sehingga inflasi tahunan dijadikan acuan oleh pasar karena sedikit efek musiman yang tercermin pada inflasi tahunan. “Meski angka inflasi tahunan di bawah prediksi, tapi lebih tinggi dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya,” papar dia. Apalagi kata dia, defisit neraca perdagangan Indonesia sangat bengkak. Padahal data tersebut untuk Juli 2013 dan kenaikan harga Bahan Bakar Minyak (BBM) bersubsidi sudah dilakukan pada akhir Juni 2013. “Pemerintah sendiri mengatakan, dengan kenaikan harga BBM, defisit neraca perdagangan bisa berkurang. Yang terjadi, defisit justru membengkak,” ungkap dia. Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mencatat hingga Juli 2013 defisit neraca perdagangan mencapai US$2,31 miliar. Secara kumulatif dari Januari hingga Juli neraca perdagangan defisit US$5,65 miliar. Membengkaknya defisit, lanjut dia, lebih dipicu oleh drastisnya pelemahan rupiah dan stabilnya harga minyak mentah dunia di atas level US$100 per barel. “Yang diotak-atik pemerintah adalah harga BBM domestik,” ucapnya. Jika rupiah melemah signifikan dan harga minyak naik, efek dari pemangkasan subsidi BBM tidak begitu terasa sehingga defisit perdagangan bengkak. “Data tersebut diperparah oleh berkurangnya aktivitas manufaktur Indonesia versi HSBC ke 48,5 dari sebelumnya 50,7,” tuturnya. Secara umum, kata dia, data-data Indonesia cukup buruk meskipun data ekspor Indonesia juga sebenarnya mengalami kenaikan. “Meski ekspor naik, tapi impornya melonjak signifikan, efek kenaikan ekspor itu tidak terasa,” timpal dia. Karena itu, lanjut dia, pasar ragu apakah Bank Indonesia (BI) masih akan tetap hawkish (pro moneter ketat) di tengah bertambahnya sinyal pelambatan ekonomi Indonesia. Pekan lalu, BI telah menaikkan BI rate 50 basis poin ke 7%. Tapi, dengan data-data terakhir yang menunjukkan bukti berlanjutnya pelambatan, ada keraguan di pasar bahwa BI akan melanjutkan siklus kenaikan suku bunganya yang dibutuhkan untuk meredam pelemahan rupiah lebih lanjut. Selain itu, sentimen dari eksternal juga cukup negatif sehingga turut memperburuk kinerja rupiah. Tadi, pagi pasar sudah mendapatkan data aktivitas sektor non-jasa China yang angkanya berkurang dari 54,1 menjadi 53,9. “Pasar juga terpengaruh negatif oleh merebaknya kekhawatiran stabilitas politik di Italia setelah Berluconi merencanakan akan menarik dukungan terhadap Perdana Menteri Italia,” tuturnya. Alhasil, dolar AS menguat terhadap mayoritas mata uang utama termasuk terhadap euro (mata uang gabungan negara-negara Eropa). Indeks dolar AS menguat ke 82,35 dari sebelumnya 82,08. “Terhadap euro, dolar AS ditransaksikan menguat ke US$1,3172 dari sebelumnya US$1,3190 per dolar AS,” imbuh Firman. Dari bursa saham, Satrio Utomo, kepala riset PT Universal Broker Indonesia mengatakan, laju IHSG Selasa ini benar-benar merupakan tipikal wave 2. “Berita-berita masih jelek, tapi IHSG bergerak naik,” kata dia. Pada perdagangan Selasa (3/9/2013) Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG ) ditutup menguat 62,78 poin (1,53%) ke posisi 4.164,012. Intraday terlemah 4.110,156 dan tertinggi 4.172,325. Dia menjelaskan, resistance 4.120 sudah ditembus. “Resistance kedua dari IHSG di 4.150, juga sudah ditembus yang sebelumnya jadi problem kita,” ujarnya. Satrio sendiri mengaku, hari ini menambah posisi sahamnya. “Per sore ini, posisi saya sudah sekitar 80%. Tadi, pagi saya buyback PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA) di atas harga saya jual kemarin. Buybcak-nya double biar puas, semoga target double bottom-nya kena. Karena double bottom PTBA itu juga, sepertinya rally dari batubara bakal berlanjut,” papar dia. Sementara itu, kata dia, saham-saham perbankan belum memberikan tanda-tanda balik arah. “Belum ada penembusan resistance. Tapi, kalau IHSG bottoming, masa sih saham-saham banks enggak ikutan?” tuturnya. Satrio menegaskan, kalau benar kemarin itu adalah bottom dari wave 2, berarti pemodal memang sedang tidak boleh pakai nalar. “Dalam wave 2, orang yang pakai nalar bakal ketinggalan kereta,” imbuhnya. [jin] 2. September 2013, 15:21:42 SGT Kurs Jatuh, Perusahaan Asia Pusing wsj oleh Sean McLain di New Delhi dan I Made Sentana di Jakarta Perusahaan di berbagai negara Asia menghadapi krisis pembayaran utang. Kejatuhan mata uang lokal mempersulit mereka membayar utang asing yang kian mahal. Situasi tersebut kian memperburuk tekanan yang dirasakan negara-negara Asia saat ini. Dalam beberapa tahun terakhir, banyak perusahaan Asia mengambil utang luar negeri dalam jumlah besar. Latar belakang situasi ini adalah kebijakan bank sentral Amerika Serikat (AS), Federal Reserve alias Fed, yang menjaga suku bunga tetap rendah dan terus mencetak uang. Bagi perusahaan di negara seperti India dan Indonesia, bunga utang berdenominasi dolar AS lebih menarik ketimbang ongkos kredit dalam negeri. Reuters Tempat penukaran valuta asing di India Namun rencana Fed mengakhiri stimulus moneternya memicu penarikan modal keluar besar-besaran dari negara berkembang. Hitung-hitungan utang luar negeri pun berubah. Investor asing beramai-ramai menarik dananya dari obligasi dan aset lainnya di Asia dengan harapan bunga di AS akan meroket di masa depan. Hal ini menjatuhkan mata uang negara-negara Asia dan meningkatkan biaya pembayaran pinjaman berdenominasi dolar AS. Situasi ini memburuk, khususnya di India. Perusahaan-perusahaan India memiliki utang asing tak terasuransi (unhedged) sebesar total $100 miliar, demikian menurut data dari Crisil, pemeringkat di India yang berafiliasi dengan Standard & Poor’s. Kejatuhan rupee sebesar hampir 19% sejak Mei telah meningkatkan biaya pelunasan utang tersebut dalam mata uang lokal. “Depresiasi nilai rupee memusingkan sejumlah perusahaan besar India,” ujar D.K. Joshi, ekonom Crisil. “Mereka yang tidak melakukan hedging untuk utang asingnya akan kesulitan membayarnya.” Reliance Communications, salah satu perusahaan telekomunikasi terbesar di India, memiliki utang asing unhedged sebesar $3,83 miliar. Sekitar $200 juta di antaranya jatuh tempo tahun ini. Perusahaan Indonesia juga rentan. Utang luar negeri PT Indosat mencapai hampir $1 miliar. Pinjaman itu, yang diambil saat bunga di AS masih lebih rendah ketimbang Indonesia, digunakan untuk membiayai pembelian peralatan. Utang semacam itu dulu dianggap sebagai opsi yang lebih menarik saat dana asing membanjiri pasar saham dan obligasi Indonesia, sehingga menaikkan nilai tukar rupiah. Kini, saat nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS telah jatuh hampir sebesar 12%, biaya pembayaran utang pun meroket dan hanya sekitar seperempatnya saja yang dilindungi atau di-hedging. “Tentu saja mata uang menjadi salah satu kekhawatiran kami,” ujar Stefan Carlsson, direktur keuangan Indosat. Meski berpotensi membukukan kerugian terkait mata uang, Carlsson mengatakan Indosat akan mampu membayar utang-utangnya. Meski krisis utang ini mulai merebak, pengamat umumnya memprediksi krisis Asia 1997-1998 tak akan terulang. Kala itu banyak perusahaan dan bank di Asia bangkrut karena tidak sanggup membayar utang luar negeri di tengah krisis mata uang. Saat ini utang korporasi dalam mata uang lokal tercatat masih lebih besar ketimbang pada akhir 1990-an. HSBC memperkirakan nilai utang eksternal korporasi Indonesia, baik perusahaan terbuka maupun tertutup, sebesar 45% dari produk domestik bruto (PDB) 2012. Angka ini lebih rendah dari sebelum krisis 1990-an yang mencapai 90% PDB. Bank-bank sentral Asia juga memiliki lebih banyak cadangan devisa yang dapat digunakan untuk menyokong mata uang. Meski demikian, banyak negara Asia dipusingkan oleh defisit neraca perdagangan, yang berarti volume impor lebih besar dari ekspor. Biasanya, defisit ini dapat ditambal oleh dana asing yang masuk ke pasar obligasi, saham, dan kredit. Seiring dengan kembalinya modal ke negara maju, negara-negara dengan defisit neraca terbesar terbukti paling sial, seperti India dan Indonesia. Defisit Transaksi Berjalan Lebih Rendah Triwulan III Senin, 2 September 2013 | 22:54 investor daily JAKARTA – Menteri Keuangan Chatib Basri mengaku optimistis bahwa defisit transaksi berjalan (current account deficit/CAD) yang sekarang ini meningkat akan menjadi lebih rendah pada triwulan ke tiga, karena efek kenaikan harga bahan bakar minyak (BBM). “Saya percaya current account deficit kita hingga akhir tahun sekitar tiga hingga empat persen dari PDB (produk domestik bruto, red). Pokoknya CAD pada triwulan ke tiga itu akan lebih rendah dari CAD pada triwulan ke dua,” kata Chatib di Jakarta, Senin, usai Raker dengan Banggar DPR RI dalam rangka Pembicaraan Tingkat I/Pembahasan RUU tentang Pertanggungjawaban Pelaksanaan APBN 2012. Menurut dia, perkiraan semakin membaiknya kondisi CAD Indonesia pada triwulan III itu diduga sebagai efek positif dari kenaikan harga BBM yang sudah akan terlihat pada beberapa bulan mendatang. Terkait data Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) yang menyatakan defisit neraca perdagangan pada Juli 2013 sebesar US$2,31 miliar yang disebabkan masih tingginya impor komoditi migas, Menkeu mengatakan efek dari kenaikan harga BBM belum dapat terlihat hanya dalam waktu satu bulan. “Yang baru diumumkan oleh BPS tadi kan angka defisit transaksi berjalan pada Juli, sedangkan efek dari kenaikan harga BBM belum bisa terlihat dalam satu bulan,” ujarnya. “Karena sederhana saja, harga BBM itu dinaikkan pada 22 Juni, dan kalau untuk impor kan sudah ada kontrak yang tidak akan hilang dalam satu bulan. Namun, kalau sudah dua atau tiga bulan ke depan, saya rasa dampak positif kenaikan harga BBM bersubsidi akan mulai terlihat,” kata Chatib. Oleh karena itu, dia menekankan semua pihak untuk tidak melihat tren defisit transaksi berjalan hanya per bulan, melainkan per triwulan. “Itu sebabnya saya selalu mengatakan untuk melihat CAD pada triwulan III karena kalau lihat per bulan saya kira itu terlalu pendek untuk bisa lihat respon,” katanya. Walaupun demikian, Menkeu meyakini gejala penurunan konsumsi BBM sudah mulai terlihat sejak Juli karena beberapa data yang diterima Kementerian Keuangan menujukkan bahwa konsumsi minyak pada Juli sudah mulai berkurang. Sebelumnya, Kepala Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Suryamin mengatakan defisit neraca perdagangan pada Juli 2013 tercatat US$2,31 miliar, yang disebabkan masih tingginya impor komoditi migas. “Defisit nilai perdagangan tersebut disebabkan oleh defisit komoditi migas sebesar US$1,86 miliar dan komoditi nonmigas sebesar US$0,45 miliar,” kata Suryamin. Ia mengatakan defisit nilai perdagangan pada Juli 2013 lebih tinggi dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun lalu, atau naik 163,26%. Namun volume perdagangan mengalami surplus 42,87 juta ton. “Volume perdagangan migas mengalami defisit 1,34 juta ton, namun volume non migas pada Juli 2013 mengalami surplus 44,21 juta ton,” ujarnya. Dengan demikian, secara kumulatif defisit neraca perdagangan Januari-Juli 2013 mencapai US$5,65 miliar, karena ekspor tercatat sebesar US$106,18 miliar dan impor mencapai US$111,83 miliar. Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Butuhkan Stabilitas Keuangan Senin, 2 September 2013 | 7:55 investor daily ASTANA-Indonesia berharap rencana kebijakan Pemerintah Amerika Serikat mengurangi stimulus moneter dapat dilakukan secara hati-hati sehingga tidak mengganggu stabilitas keuangan dunia dan di sisi lain pertumbuhan ekonomi tetap dapat berlanjut. Staf khusus Presiden bidang ekonomi Firmanzah kepada Antara di sela-sela mendampingi Presiden Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono dalam lawatan ke Kazakshtan, Senin, mengatakan pertumbuhan ekonomi sulit dipelihara bila stabilitas pasar keuangan tidak terjaga. “Pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia tidak bisa diwujudkna tanpa adanya stabilitas pasar keuangan,” kata Firmanzah. Ia mengatakan dampak penurunan nilai tukar mata uang terhadap dolas AS dan anjlognya indeks harga saham dalam beberapa pekan terakhir tidak hanya dialami oleh Indonesia namun juga oleh sejumlah negara lainnya seperti India, Brazil, China dan Afrika Selatan. Firmanzah memaparkan hal itu kemungkinan menjadi salah satu yang dibicarakan dalam pertemuan puncak pemimpin negara-negara anggota G-20 karena stabilitas pasar keuangan dunia menjadi salah satu tujuan G-20. “Bagaimana kita bisa menciptakan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berkualitas melalui job creation dan investmen,” katanya. Ia menegaskan kebijakan pengurangan stimulus moneter Amerika Serikat memang merupakan wilayah otoritas Amerika Serikat namun stabilitas pasar keuangan dunia pun harus menjadi perhatian semua pihak. “Namun masalahnya dalam exit strategy dan masa transisi ini perlu dikomunikasikan dan adanya transparansi. Perlu adanya koordinasi dengan negara-negara lain,” katanya. Firmanzah mengatakan dalam pertemuan pemimpin negara-negara anggota G20 mendatang Presiden Yudhoyono akan menyampaikan perlu adanya solusi bersama untuk menjaga stabilitas pasar keuangan dunia. Sebelumnya Presiden Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono mengatakan bahwa Indonesia memiliki kepentingan dalam pembahasan ekonomi global di Pertemuan Puncak G20 yang akan diselenggarakan di Rusia, pekan pertama September. “Apapun yang kita lakukan di dalam negeri, sebagaimana paket ekonomi untuk mengatasi tekanan ekonomi terkini yang sedang kita jalankan tidak ‘immune’ (bebas) terhadap apa yang terjadi di dunia,” kata Presiden di Jakarta, Minggu. Dalam pernyataan pers menjelang keberangkatannya ke Kazakhstan, yang merupakan awal dari lawatan tiga negaranya, Presiden menyampaikan akan menggunakan pertemuan G20 itu sebagai kesempatan untuk memahami apa yang terjadi di tingkat global dan pandangan para pemimpin dunia terkait kebijakan ekonomi saat ini. Presiden juga menyatakan bahwa Pertemuan Puncak G20 di Russia kali ini tidak kalah penting dari pertemuan puncak pertama dan kedua G20 di Washington dan London pada 2008 dan 2009. “Mengingat situasi ekonomi dunia menghadapi persoalan baru. Negara kita juga salah satu yang terdampak, ekonomi kita juga mendapatkan tekanan baru,” katanya. Tekanan terhadap perekonomian nasional, kata Presiden, disamping karena faktor internal juga dipengaruhi oleh forum eksternal. “Forum G20 yang paling tepat menurut pandangan dan pengalaman saya untuk membahas secara kolektif apa yang mesti dilakukan dunia untuk memastikan ‘recovery’ perekonomian global pasca krisis 2008 dan 2009 berlangsung baik bukan sebaliknya kita masuk dalam situasi sulit seperti kejadisan lima tahun lalu,” ujarnya. Presiden pada kesempatan itu juga mengatakan akan menyuarakan imbauan untuk tidak saling menyalahkan dan fokus pada upaya-upaya menyelesaikan permasalahan.(*/hrb) Defisit Neraca Perdagangan Juli Cetak Rekor Terbesar Sejarah RI Oleh Fiki Ariyanti Posted: 02/09/2013 17:35 Liputan6.com, Jakarta : Defisit neraca perdagangan Indonesia yang menembus US$ 2,31 miliar dan US$ 5,65 miliar pada Juli merupakan rekor terbesar dalam sejarah Indonesia. “Ini (defisit perdagangan) terbesar sepanjang sejarah,” kata Kepala Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Suryamin di Jakarta, Senin (2/9/2013). Defisit ini, sambung dia, masih dikontribusi dari impor minyak dan gas (migas) yang mencapai US$ 4,37 miliar pada Juli 2013 atau setara dengan volume 4,67 juta ton. Angka tersebut mengalami peningkatan dibanding periode Juni lalu yang tercatat sebesar 4,04 juta ton migas dengan nilai sebesar US$ 3,53 miliar. Deputi Bidang Statistik Distribusi dan Jasa BPS, Sasmito Hadi Wibowo menambahkan, kondisi tersebut dipicu dengan bertumbuhnya perekonomian Indonesia dengan rata-rata 6%. “Jadi kebutuhan produksi dan konsumsi terutama bahan bakar minyak (BBM) naik terus, dan untuk barang lainnya. Kebutuhan ini semakin banyak memerlukan suplai, kalau suplai domestik tidak cukup, ya beli dari luar negeri,” tutur dia. Pembelian BBM dan barang lain dari negara lain, menurut Sasmito mengakibatkan impor Indonesia membengkak, baik dari sisi nilai maupun volume. Padahal pangsa pasar di Indonesia terus meningkat. “Namanya pengusaha kalau mau bersaing harus banting harga untuk ngalahin negara lain di pasar dunia. Kalau dengan volume yang sekarang, stabil saja tapi harga naik, pasti akan naik. Jadi ini persoalan waktu saja, nanti nilai ekspor juga akan membesar,” tandas dia. (Fik/Nur) Paul Krugman: Ekonomi RI Sekarang Lebih Sehat Dibanding 1997 Eben Ezer Siadari Anjloknya Rupiah pada 1997 telah membuat daya saing ekspor meningkat dan menjadi penghela ekonomi. NEW YORK, Jaringnews.com – Guru besar Ilmu Ekonomi Princeton University dan pemenang nobel ekonomi tahun 2008, Paul Krugman, mengatakan perekonomian Indonesia saat ini lebih sehat dan solid dibandingkan dengan tahun 1997, ketika krisis ekonomi yang parah terjadi. Itu sebabnya ia tidak yakin depresiasi mata uang sejumlah negara Asia belakangan ini akan mengulang terjadinya krisis seperti tahun 1997. “Indonesia memiliki porsi utang luar negeri terhadap Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) yang jauh lebih rendah bila dibandingkan dengan tahun 1990-an,” kata Paul Krugman dalam tulisan kolom rutinnya di The New York Times yang diberi judul Unsaved World, sebagaimana dikutip hari ini (1/9). “Utang India, negara yang mata uangnya turut anjlok dan mengkhawatirkan sejumlah pengamat, juga jauh lebih rendah. Sehingga pengulangan krisis 1990-an menurut saya tidak akan terjadi,” sambungnya. Paul Krugman, yang terkenal lewat bukunya The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008, mengatakan, depresiasi Rupiah pada 1997 berubah menjadi krisis dikarenakan banyak perusahaan swasta menanggung utang dalam dolar. Tatkala Rupiah anjlok, otomatis utang tersebut melambung dan mengakibatkan gagal bayar. Namun, kata dia, Indonesia cepat pulih. Setelah krisis 1997, tiga tahun kemudian Indonesia sudah memasuki masa pemulihan. Anjloknya Rupiah telah membuat ekspor RI semakin berdaya saing yang selanjutnya menjadi penghela ekonomi. “Pada tahun 2003, Indonesia sudah melewati puncak prakrisis dan tahun lalu, ekonomi RI 72 persen lebih besar dari ekonomi tahun 1997,” tulis dia. (Ben / Riz) Jum’at, 30 Agustus 2013 | 08:38 WIB `Ekonomi Indonesia Tak Seburuk India dan Brasil` TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – Kepala Ekonom PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk, Destry Damayanti, menyatakan kondisi perekonomian Indonesia tidak seburuk India dan Brasil. Meski ketiga negara itu menerima sentimen negatif dari sinyal pelambatan stimulus (tapering) The Fed, Indonesia tetap menunjukkan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang bagus. Destry mengakui bila belakangan Indonesia kerap disamakan dengan India dan Brazil karena menghadapi defisit transaksi berjalan yang berat. Namun, menurut Destry, India dan Brasil telah lama mengalaminya, sementara Indonesia baru sejak sekitar lima tahun lalu. “Brazil dan India sudah lama, jadi sudah kronis,” kata Destry di Plaza Mandiri Jakarta, pada Kamis 29 Agustus 2013. Perbedaan lain, kata Destry, Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Indonesia juga tetap yang tertinggi dibandingkan India dan Brasil. Bila dilihat dari utang pemerintah, Indonesia justru terendah, hanya 24, 8 persen, sementara India 51,9 persen dan Brazil 54,9 persen. Ada pun tren investasi Indonesia yang cenderung naik. Destry mengatakan, defisit transaksi berjalan memang wajar dialami negara berkembang, termasuk Indonesia. Cara mengatasinya, kata dia, tergantung kebijakan yang diambil pemerintah untuk alokasi devisa yang dimiliki negara. Menurut Destry, kebijakan pemerintah Indonesia sudah tepat karena mengalokasikan devisa pada hal produktif. Namun, pemerintah dinilai belum mempertimbangkan skenario fiskal jika surplus pendapatan terhenti. “Akhirnya disamakan tuh, dengan India dan Brasil,” ujar dia. Sejak muncul kebijakan baru The Fed, ada kekhawatiran di antara pelaku pasar pasca penguatan dolar Amerika. Di Indonesia, pasar masih cemas mencermati kepastian tingkat suku bunga acuan dan volatilitas rupiah. Inflasi tahunan Indonesia pada Juli, sebesar 8,61 persen membuat tekanan terhadao defisit nerasa perdagangan Indonesia meningkat menjadi US$ 3,3 miliar. Cadangan devisa juga turut merosot US$ 5,42 miliar menjadi US$ 92,67 miliar pada akhir Juli 2013. DIAN KURNIATI bumi2009fans

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May 6, 2015May 6, 2015

182 Minutes

ya sudah lah : please go, hot money … 200111_041014 JAKARTA sinar harapan – Kegaduhan politik yang terjadi beberapa hari belakangan diyakini menjadi sentimen negatif bagi perekonomian nasional, khususnya di pasar keuangan. Penguasaan oposisi di parlemen, Kamis (2/10) dini hari, menjadi puncak kegaduhan yang menjadi catatan tersendiri bagi pelaku pasar dan investor. “Jelas ini semua akan menjadi sentimen negatif di tengah sepinya sentimen positif dari sisi makroekonomi. Apalagi, pada Agustus terjadi defisit perdagangan,” ujar Kepala Ekonom Bank Nasional Indonesia (BNI), Ryan Kiryanto, kepada SH di Jakarta, Kamis. Menurut Ryan, kegaduhan politik yang tidak bermutu ini menjadi catatan pelaku pasar. Mereka, Ryan mengungkapkan, akan “menghukum” dengan melakukan beberapa aksi. Pertama adalah melarikan modal (capital flight). Kedua merupakan aksi tunggu (wait and see) dalam investasi. Sementara itu, aksi ketiga adalah mencari negara tujuan investasi lain di ASEAN, seperti Myanmar dan Vietnam. Kondisi perpolitikan ini, menurutnya, memperburuk tekanan ekonomi dari eksternal, seperti rencana kenaikan suku bunga di Amerika Serikat (Fed fund rate). Tekanan terhadap rupiah juga akan semakin kuat. Indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) anjlok 33 poin setelah terkena tekanan jual. Investor asing terus melepas saham di tengah makin memanasnya tensi politik dalam negeri. Membuka perdagangan, Kamis pagi ini, IHSG melorot 62,929 poin (1,22 persen) ke level 5.077,987. Indeks LQ45 anjlok pula 13,965 poin (1,60 persen) ke level 8.56,845. Pergerakan IHSG masih dipengaruhi asing yang membukukan nett sell selama tujuh hari berturut-turut. “Asing terus membukukan net sell selama tujuh hari berturut-turut, totalnya mencapai US$ 400 juta, sebagai kombinasi potensi kenaikan Fed rate, berakhirnya QE (pelonggaran kuantitatif), dan kondisi politik yang tidak stabil,” tutur riset harian Samuel Sekuritas, Kamis pagi. Faktor pelemahan selanjutnya datang dari ketidakstabilan politik yang diperparah oleh terpilihnya pemimpin DPR yang berasal dari partai yang beroposisi dengan pemerintah. “Hal ini menimbulkan kekhawatiran akan partai pemerintah tidak bakal kuat di DPR,” tulis tim analis Samuel Sekuritas. Berdasarkan data Bloomberg, nilai net sell asing terbesar pada tahun ini terjadi pada 15 Agustus, mencapai Rp 1,928 triliun. Beberapa pekan terakhir, asing kembali terlihat melepas kepemilikan asetnya dari pasar saham. Aksi jual asing ini sudah terlihat sejak 9 September dengan kisaran nilai penjualan antara Rp 122,506 miliar-1,419 triliun. Terpisah, ekonom dari Universitas Indonesia (UI), Lana Soelistianingsih mengatakan, pergolakan politik yang saat ini terjadi menambah tekanan jual asing di tengah tekanan dari pasar keuangan global. “Semua kombinasi ini sudah direspons negatif oleh asing dengan adanya tekanan jual di pasar keuangan. Apalagi, ada rencana kenaikan Fed fund rate,” ucapnya. Menurutnya, saat ini memang sulit memisahkan sentimen negatif di pasar keuangan yang berasal dari faktor ekternal atau internal. Namun dapat dipastikan, kondisi politik dalam negeri menambah sentimen negatif bagi pasar. Rupiah Melemah Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS kembali melanjutkan pelemahan. Rupiah pagi ini dibuka di Rp 12.156 per dolar AS. Melansir Bloomberg Dollar Index, Kamis, rupiah saat ini dalam pergerakan non-delivery forward (NDF) melemah tiga poin atau 0,03 persen ke Rp 12.137 per dolar AS. Angka tersebut melemah dibandingkan penutupan sebelumnya di Rp 12.134 per dolar AS. Rupiah pagi ini bergerak di kisaran Rp 12.137-12.160 per dolar AS. Ini dengan pergerakan 52 minggu di kisaran Rp 10.766-12.281 per dolar AS. Selama tiga hari berturut-turut, rupiah kembali menembus Rp 12.000 per dolar AS. Berdasarkan data Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) Bank Indonesia (BI), rupiah mulai bergerak di posisi Rp 12.007 per dolar AS pada Jumat (26/9). Rupiah kemudian terus tertekan hingga menyentuh Rp 12.120 per dolar AS pada Senin (29/9). “Jika pemerintahan baru mampu mengelola dengan efektif kegaduhan politik ini melalui jalan rekonsiliasi dengan parpol-parpol lain yang berseberangan, tekanan akan berkurang. Tapi, ini tentu butuh waktu 3-6 bulan ke depan,” tutur Ryan. Menurut Lana, sejatinya penguasaan parlemen oleh opoisisi bisa menjadi sesuatu yang positif jika mekanisme check and balences bisa berjalan baik. “Pasar nantinya melihat dan menilai hal ini,” ujarnya. Sarman Simanjorang, Wakil Ketua Kantor Dagang dan Industri (Kadin) DKI Jakarta menuturkan, salah satu indikator iklim investasi yang kondusif adalah stabilitas politik di suatu negara. “Kita lihat reaksi beberapa negara akibat pengesahan UU Pilkada (Undang-Undang Pemilihan Kepala Daerah), dinilai Indonesia mengalami kemunduran,” ucapnya. Kegaduhan politik yang terjadi saat ini, menurutnya, ditonton dan diamati dunia, termasuk para calon investor. Indonesia saat ini, Sarman menyatakan, dinilai ini berposisi strategis sebagai salah satu negara dengan penduduk lima besar di dunia dan memiliki pertumbuhan ekonomi yang relatif stabil, serta memiliki peran strategis di ASEAN. “Kegaduhan politik saat ini, yang terkesan politik balas dendam, semakin memberikan pesan ke dunia internasional bahwa Indonesia belum dewasa dalam berpolitik,” tuturnya. Ia meyakini, situasi politik ini tentu memengaruhi pasar juga calon investor. “Dalam bayangan mereka, pemerintahan ke depan akan tidak leluasa bergerak dan akan selalu dihambat parlemen. Bagi investor, ini masuk kategori negara yang kurang kondusif dalam berinvestasi dan berkepastian hukum,” katanya. Sumber : Sinar Harapan JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com – Alarm itu menyalak kencang! Adalah Gubernur bank sentral Amerika Serikat (AS) Federal Reserve (The Fed) Janet Yellen yang kembali membunyikannya. Kemarin (24/9/2014), Yellen kembali minta agar investor waspada. Sebab, The Fed akan mengumumkan kenaikan suku bunga lebih cepat dari perkiraan, jika ekonomi AS terus meningkat, lebih baik daripada perkiraan. Bahkan, ada kemungkinan, kenaikan bunga tak dilakukan di kuartal pertama 2015, tapi di akhir 2014. Ini jelas harus menjadi lampu kuning bagi pemerintah baru 2014-2019 Joko Widodo dan Jusuf Kalla. Sebab, ada ancaman terjadi pembalikan dana-dana asing (hot money) dari pasar keuangan Indonesia. Apalagi, dana-dana asing menguasai pasar portofolio Indonesia, baik di pasar saham maupun surat utang negara atau SUN. Hingga 22 September, dana asing di pasar SUN semisal sudah mencapai Rp 443,72 triliun atau 37,02 persen dari total dana yang ada di SUN. Meski sepanjang Agustus sampai September, dana asing keluar, namun bila dihitung sejak awal tahun tahun, net buy asing masih tinggi yakni Rp 52,59 triliun. Bila dana-dana panas ini serentak keluar (sudden reserval) bisa membuat perekonomian kolaps. Apalagi, kondisi ini juga bersamaan dengan tren pelemahan rupiah serta harga komoditas andalan ekspor Indonesia yang turun hingga beban utang luar negeri pemerintah yang kini mencapai 40 persen dari total uang pemerintah. “Kondisi ini harus mendapat perhatian khusus pemerintah baru,” tandas Menteri Keuangan Chatib Basri, Rabu (23/9/2014). Apalagi, hingga saat ini, Indonesia belum memiliki jaring pengaman sistem keuangan atau JPSK. Padahal, UU ini bisa jadi payung hukum untuk menghindari krisis. Chatib menyarankan agar pemerintah baru bersiaga menghadapi ancaman pembalikan hot money. Sejumlah bantalan harus disiapkan. Pertama, pemerintah harus memperbaiki fundamental ekonomi dengan memperbaiki defisit neraca dagang dan transaksi berjalan. Kedua, lewat bond stabilization framework, pemerintah bisa membeli kembali (buy back) SUN yang ditinggalkan asing dengan menggunakan dana anggaran, meminta BUMN ikut membeli SUN hingga bisa memanfaatkan dana umat yakni Dana Haji dan Dana Jaminan Sosial untuk masuk ke SUN. Hitungan dia, dana haji yang bisa masuk SUN bisa 15 miliar dollar AS. Adapun, dana jaminan sosial 30 miliar dollar AS hingga 2020. Dengan kurs rupiah saat ini, dana itu senilai lebih dari Rp 500 triliun. Namun, Kepala Ekonom Bank Mandiri Destri Damayanti yakin hot money tak akan langsung keluar karena imbal hasil investasi di Indonesia masih tinggi. Apalagi, “Jika pemerintah baru mampu menjaga stabilitas makro, ” kata Destri. (Adi Wikanto, Asep Munazat Zatnika, Jane Aprilyani, Margareta Engge Kharismawati) Analysis: Emerging markets? So last year, some investors say 8:07am EST By Dominic Lau and Scott Barber LONDON (Reuters) – Equity investors take note: the emerging markets bet which paid off so handsomely last year may have run its course for the time being. For the year ahead, exposure to surprisingly strong domestic European growth may prove more lucrative than investing in markets such as China, still fast growing but which could be affected negatively by factors such as rising inflation. Shares in plenty of companies heavily exposed to emerging markets outperformed last year, but some investors have already started to seek cheaper valuations among stocks which stand to benefit from domestic growth. “The emerging market story has got a long, long way to go … (but) in the short term, some of the valuations might be a little bit generous. With the prospects of recovery in Europe, it’s going to be less of a short-term theme,” a London-based fund manager, who declined to be identified, said. “It’s more likely to be companies which are poised for the recovery in Europe,” he said, adding he favors European banks, among them Deutsche Bank. Picking the best domestic plays isn’t necessarily easy. Although not all companies disclose how much of their sales come from emerging markets, Thomson Reuters data shows in 2010 the performance of a portfolio of European stocks with high foreign sales outpaced a basket of domestic-focused firms by 23 percent. However, so far this year the domestic-centric portfolio has outpaced the overseas exposed basket by 4.8 percent. The change in sentiment was the result of a mixture of Europe’s improved economic outlook and concerns about inflation and lower returns in emerging markets. Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, on Wednesday lifted its 2011 economic growth forecast to 2.3 percent from 1.8 percent, while stronger than expected Chinese fourth-quarter GDP raised concerns of further monetary tightening in the world’s second-biggest economy. In terms of valuations, companies relying on domestic sales may offer better value. The domestic-focused basket of European companies carries a one-year trailing price-to-earnings of 12.7 times versus the portfolio of foreign exposed stocks’s 18.7. INFLATION FEARS “Germany is obviously recovering more. At some point, it might become less dramatic between domestic and the emerging market plays. The emerging market plays have gone up quite strong,” said Nick Nelson, equity strategist at UBS. According to Goldman Sachs, companies with relatively high exposure to the country’s consumers included Axel Springer, Fielmann, Tomra Systems, Suedzucker, Praktiker, Gagfah, Metro and ProSiebenSat1. It also highlights Volkswagen, which has high domestic as well as emerging market exposure. Some investors have cashed in gains from shares in companies with large developing country sales after their outperformance in 2010, as concerns over inflation in emerging economies grew. For example, Swatch Group, the world’s largest watchmaker and which Barclays Capital said has about 35 percent of its sales to emerging markets, have fallen 11 percent so far this year after soaring 59 percent in 2010.

“With inflation picking up, we have seen tightening policy in reaction to that which will be a headwind for emerging markets or emerging market-related assets, certainly in the first half of this year,” said Ronan Carr, European equity strategist at Morgan Stanley in London. Carr said consumer cyclicals that are operating in emerging markets would lose some of their momentum and Morgan Stanley is underweight consumer discretionary. However, he was positive on emerging market exposure as a long-term play. The other issue is that the bet on companies with high emerging market sales has been popular, meaning that the returns on the trade are smaller. “One of the easy trades of last year was basically buy companies with exposure in emerging markets … based on the fact that growth within developing emerging markets is considerably above developed markets,” said Alec Letchfield, chief investment officer at HSBC Global Asset Management’s private client arm.

Letchfield did not expect policymakers in emerging markets to slam on the brake too fast to derail growth but said the situation had changed. “It’s not the kind of slam dunk that it was perhaps of last year,” he said. (Editing by David Holmes) Ekspansi pasar obligasi global melambat ke level sebelum krisis atau perlambatan pertama kalinya sejak 2005 seiring penarikan stimulus pemerintah dan perbaikan kondisi kredit. Berdasarkan data Bank of America Merrill Lynch, pasar obligasi tumbuh 9,9% pada 2010 dengan nilai US$49,7 triliun. Pertumbuhan itu lebih rendah dari 18,5% pada 2009 ketika para pembuat kebijakan di dunia menggelontorkan garansi surat utang selama krisis keuangan global 2008-2009.

Lemahnya pertumbuhan obligasi dapat mendorong permintaan dari Pemerintah AS hingga perusahaanyang memiliki peringkat obligasi sampah. Imbal hasil obligasi korporasi masuk ke posisi terendah sejak Mei 2010 dan rata-rata melonjak 21% dari rekor terendah Oktober 2008. Sumber : BISNIS.COM bumi2009fans I Am Investor

Global neh

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