Strong export data last week does little to quell market jitters Typically, a strong round of export data from USDA is enough to lift grain market prices. That was not the case Thursday, however, with grain markets worried that relatively strong soybean exports aren’t built to last amid a festering U.S.-China trade spat. Weather-related maneuvering moved corn prices slightly lower and wheat prices slightly higher, meantime. When will temperatures finally feel seasonally appropriate? Look for cooler-than-normal weather to continue across much of the central U.S. until next Tuesday through Thursday, when temperatures finally could toss in some average or slightly-above-average temperatures. The latest seven-day cumulative precipitation forecasts from NOAA show the Mid-South and Southeast regions of the country most likely to get significant accumulation between now and April 26. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows drought’s footprint in the U.S. retreating for the twelfth consecutive week. Some areas are still mired in overly dry conditions that could have significant short- and long-term effects, however. Click here to read the latest analysis from Farm Futures. On Wall St., weakly performing tech and consumer staples stocks pushed the Dow down 173 points in early afternoon trading to 24,560. Energy prices were mixed, as crude oil cooled slightly from Wednesday’s big gains (but is still trading north of $68 per barrel), with gasoline and diesel prices continuing to climb. Corn prices eased slightly Thursday as worries of a late-planted crop begin to fade, with better-thanexpected export data keeping losses minimized. May futures slipped 1 cent to $3.82, with July futures down 0.75 cents to $3.91. Corn basis bids were mixed but mostly steady Thursday, down as much as 2 cents at an Ohio elevator and up as much as 3 cents at an Illinois processor. Corn exports of 43.0 million bushels of old crop sales and another 4.4 million bushels of new crop sales led to 47.4 million bushels in total sales last week. That topped trade estimates of 41.3 million bushels and landed moderately ahead of the prior week’s total of 35.3 million bushels. Corn export shipments reached 62.8 million bushels last week, with Mexico as the top destination. The EPA reports that the U.S. generated 1.23 billion ethanol blending credits in March, up from 1.13 billion generated in February. Biodiesel blending credits also made a moderate jump last month, moving from 246 million in February to 300 million in March. European Union corn imports for 2017/18 have tracked significantly higher from a year ago, reaching 543.3 million bushels as of April 17. That’s more than 48% higher than the 366.1 million bushels of corn EU had imported by this time last year. China sold approximately 106 million bushels of its state reserves of corn at auction Thursday, which was 91.15% of the total available for sale. And a Chinese grain processor has signed an agreement to build an ethanol facility in Mongolia that will process as much as 36.4 million bushels of corn annually to produce the fuel. China has recently mandated that all domestic gasoline contains 10% ethanol by 2020. Preliminary volume estimates were for 250,883 contracts, down sharply from Wednesday’s final count of 265,764. Soybean prices buckled a bit under worries that the latest export data – which came in relatively strong – won’t be able to keep up moving forward as long as the U.S.-China trade tiff continues. May futures fell 4.5 cents to $10.3725, while July futures dropped 4.25 cents to $10.49. Lower futures prices have soybean basis bids steady to slightly firmer, up 1 to 5 cents at some Midwestern processors. Prices continue to come in mixed at river terminals, up as much as 7 cents in one Illinois location but down as much as 5 cents in another. Soybean exports last week found 38.2 million bushels in old crop sales and another 40.1 million bushels in new crop sales for a total of 78.3 million bushels. That topped the average trade guess of 66.2 million bushels and pushes the weekly rate needed to reach USDA forecasts down to 4.0 million bushels. Soybean export shipments, meantime, hit a 2017/18 marketing year low, with 14.8 million bushels, thanks to a conspicuously low Chinese volume. Egypt was the atypical No. 1 destination last week instead. Argentina’s agriculture ministry lowered its 2017/18 soybean production estimates to 1.382 billion bushels. The country produced 2.021 billion bushels of soybeans last year. EU 2017/18 soybean imports have reached 382.1 million bushels as of April 17, which is 2% lower than the prior year. EU soymeal imports are up 5% and its palm oil imports are 4% higher over the same time period. Preliminary volume estimates were for 219,738 contracts, down moderately from Wednesday’s final count of 249,895. Wheat prices, ever sensitive to weather forecasts the past several weeks, again moved higher on drier U.S. Plains forecasts. May Chicago SRW prices edged 1.5 cents higher to $4.7675, while May Kansas City HRW prices took a more moderate jump forward, gaining 6.5 cents to $5.1425. Spring wheat prices bucked the trend, with May MGEX futures dropping 4.75 cents to $6.1350. Wheat export sales saw new crop sales of 8.8 million bushels partially offset by reductions of 2.5 million in old crop sales for a net total of 6.4 million bushels. That was slightly behind the prior week’s total of 6.9 million bushels and moderately lower than the average trade guess of 11.9 million bushels. Wheat export shipments reached 16.7 million bushels last week, with the Philippines as the No. 1 destination. EU soft wheat exports for 2017/18 have reached 573.2 million bushels as of April 17. That’s nearly 24% lower than the pace of 753.2 million bushels at this time last year. EU barley exports are 4.5% higher year-over-year, with 211.3 million bushels. Egypt purchased nearly 7 million bushels of domestically produced wheat last week tied to global prices, an act that could push some of the nation’s farmers to grow more profitable crops next year. Egypt could also import as much as 257.2 million bushels of wheat in 2018/19. Japan has purchased 3.7 million bushels of food-quality wheat from the U.S. and Canada in a regular tender that closed Thursday. Purchases of U.S. western white, hard red winter and dark northern spring wheat accounted for about two-thirds of the total purchase. Iraq has purchased 3.7 million bushels of wheat from Cargill, in an invitation-only tender. The grain is sourced from Australia. Preliminary volume estimates were for 110,608 CBOT futures, down 15% from Wednesday’s final count of 130,620. Corn Outlook Soybean Outlook Wheat Outlook
