I Am Investor – Page 12 – Jl. GLOBAL #1

I Am Investor Jl. GLOBAL #1

beautiful: S&P kasi IG donK … 280412 Inilah Alasan S&P Enggan Berikan Investment Grade Oleh: ekonomi – Jumat, 27 April 2012 | 14:54 WIB INILAH.COM, Jakarta – Pemerintah hingga kini masih penasaran, mengapa Standard and Poor’s (S&P) enggan memberikan peringkat investment grade untuk Indonesia. Maklum saja, dua lembaga rating, yakni Fitch dan Moody’s sudah menganugerahkannya sejak lama. Lalu, apa alasan S&P bertahan hanya mau memberikan peringkat BB+. Financial Times mengabarkan, beberapa waktu lalu analis S&P menyampaikan alasannya. Berikut di antaranya: Rating kredit untuk Indonesia didasarkan pada pendapatan perkapita yang masih rendah, adanya hambatan yang bersifat struktural dan institusional yang mengganjal pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi, masih tingginya utang swasta, dan rendahnya pasar modal. Rating yang diberikan S&P didukung oleh minimnya laporan pemerintah pusat mengenai defisit fiskal, penurunan beban utang, penguatan likuiditas eksternal, dan performa ekonomi yang mulai pulih. Menurut analis S&P, tak ada yang baru dari faktor-faktor itu. Lalu apa yang berubah di Indonesia? Politik memang ada perubahan. Namun, S&P menyatakan, “Kami hanya melihat sedikit perubahan kebijakan sejak Suharto terguling. Banyak kebijakan tidak bisa dijalankan. Misalnya, kebijakan penaikan tarif dasar listrik, pemotongan subsidi BBM, dan penerapan kebijakan industri dan perdagangan. Hal ini memunculkan ketidakpastian kebijakan.” Pekan lalu, kerusuhan pecah di Jakarta ketika pemerintah hendak menaikkan harga BBM bersubsidi. Di sisi lain, pemerintah berniat menerapkan bea keluar untuk ekspor barang tambang, namun inipun tidak menunjukkan kepastian. Pemerintah memang menyatakan penanaman modal asing naik 32% pada kuartal I tahun ini. Namun, S&P menilai kebijakan seperti itu memunculkan risiko terhadap investasi asing. Selain itu masih banyak hal yang disoroti investor. Salah satunya, pemilihan umum 2014 mendatang. Pesta demokrasi ini, meskipun masih dua tahun lagi, sudah menjadi perhatian pemodal sejak sekarang. [tjs] JAKARTA. Indonesia sepertinya harus gigit jari. Pasalnya, Standard & Poor’s memutuskan untuk tidak menaikkan peringkat Indonesia menjadi investment grade. Dalam pernyataannya hari ini (23/4), S&P mengkonfirmasi peringkat utang Indonesia tetap berada pada level BB+ dengan outlook positif. Itu artinya, S&P tidak mengikuti langkah Fitchs Ratings dan Moody’s Investor Service yang sudah terlebih dulu menaikkan peringkat Indonesia ke level investment grade. Mereka beralasan, risiko politik Indonesia semakin meningkat seiring kegagalan pemerintah dalam menaikkan harga BBM bersubsidi. “Peringkat yang kami sematkan kepada Indonesia menunjukkan kestabilan institusi dan ekonomi dengan kekuatan fiskal, eksternal, dan profil moneter. Outlook positif menunjukkan potensi kenaikan peringkat jika prospek pertumbuhan Indonesia semakin membaik dan pasar finansial semakin mantap dengan implementasi kebijakan yang stabil,” jelas S&P. http://nasional.kontan.co.id/news/waduh-sp-tak-jadi-menaikkan-peringkat-indonesia/2012/04/23 (http://nasional.kontan.co.id/news/waduh-sp-tak-jadi-menaikkan-peringkatindonesia/2012/04/23) Sumber : KONTAN.CO.ID Is It Time to Look Beyond China and India Stocks? Published: Monday, 19 Mar 2012 | 11:20 PM ET By: Zhi Ying Ng CNBC Asia Pacific With economic growth slowing in both China and India and policymakers facing increasing challenges, analysts tell CNBC that investors should look beyond these two countries for profitable returns in 2012. As these two economic powerhouses begin to lose some of their competitive edge, experts recommend the economies of Southeast Asia, which have seen a surge in foreign investment and rising incomes in the past few years. “China is becoming an increasingly expensive place to produce and India is a regulatory quagmire,” Amar Gill, Head of Thematic Research, CLSA, told CNBC. On the other hand, Gill says countries from the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) are in a “sweet spot.” “Foreign direct investment (FDI) into ASEAN has tripled in the last three years. This is a region which is gradually integrating, where the buying power of consumers is rising and it is attractive to manufacture and (to build) production bases here,” Gill said. On the other hand there are growing worries over rising manufacturing wages in China and a policy paralysis in India, which is coming in the way of attracting foreign investment. “India doesn’t have leeway to move…(it is) in a policy trap right now,” Stephen Roach, former Non-Executive Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, told CNBC. “The budget deficit underscores how that trap gets tougher and tougher to get out of.” On Friday, India’s stock market dropped and bond yields jumped after the government released a budget that lacked bold reforms. While in China data over the weekend showed the country’s property prices fell for a fifth consecutive month. Frederic Neumann, Co-Head of Asian Economics Research at HSBC wrote in a report on Monday that investors should take note of the fact that Southeast Asian economics had regained a competitive niche, even as China’s wages were soaring and India’s manufacturing sector suffered from inadequate infrastructure. Neumann said a declining dependency on external demand coupled with increasing consumption and investment spending has boosted ASEAN economies. For investors though, betting on Southeast Asia isn’t a slam-dunk case based on their mixed performance this year. While Vietnam’s stock market is up 25 percent this year, making it the best performer in Asia, other markets in Southeast Asia haven’t fared that well. Indonesia’s benchmark Jakarta Composite [.JKSE 4154.07 -12.31 (-0.3%) ] has risen only 5 percent this year, while Malaysia’s Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange [.KLSE 1591.28 — UNCH ] is up 3 percent. That’s much less than the MSCI Asia ex-Japan Index, which is up 14 percent. On the other hand, India’s Sensex is up 11.8 percent, while China’s Shanghai Composite [.SSEC 2285.78 -20.77 (-0.9%) ] is up 9.6 percent. “Indonesia in particular is the result of strong performance from last year, and concerns right now that some key sectors will be affected if China sees a major slowdown,” Gill told CNBC. “Malaysia might face some political uncertainties ahead of a general election that is expected some time in coming months.” Despite these challenges, Gill is bullish on the region and says there are a number of companies that have returns on equity of 25 to 30 percent. Gill’s top picks for the region include Indonesia’s Bank Rakyat, Malaysia’s Public Bank and Thailand’s CP Foods. Fitch: Indonesia Tetap Layak Investasi 04/04/2012 21:20 Liputan6.com, Jakarta: Lembaga pemeringkat internasional Fitch tetap memberikan peringkat utang Indonesia pada posisi BBB- meski terjadi penundaan kenaikan harga bahan bakar minyak (BBM) bersubsidi. “Keputusan untuk menunda kenaikan harga BBM tidak mengubah peringkat kredit Indonesia sebagai negara layak investasi pada posisi BBB-,” demikian siaran pers Fitch Rating yang diterima Antara pada Rabu (4/4). Namun penundaan tersebut menunjukkan momentum untuk mengubah harga BBM tampaknya akan terhambat saat ini hingga Pemilihan Presiden 2014. “Upaya untuk menaikkan harga BBM bersubsidi sebesar 33 persen merupakan upaya yang lebih ambisius dibanding perubahan kebijakan subsidi yang dimaksud pemerintah saat kami menaikkan peringkat utang Indonesia pada Desember tahun lalu,” demikian tulis Fitch. Fitch menilai bila harga BBM bersubsidi dinaikkan, maka akan berdampak positif pada peringkat utang Indonesia, membatasi dampak fiskal karena meningkatnya harga minyak dan menambah fleksibilitas fiskal. Manfaat tersebut dapat timbul karena pemerintah memiliki hak untuk menaikkan harga BBM di masa depan karena pertimbangan harga minyak dalam negeri dan kondisi yang ditetapkan pada APBN-Perubahan. “Namun bila pemerintah tidak menaikkan harga, maka rencana pembelian barang modal akan terkena dampak sehingga membatasi kemampuan pemerintah untuk memperbaiki infrastruktur dan mengatasi hambatan suplai,” ungkap Fitch. Fitch mengakui bahwa ada kemungkinan peningkatan inflasi bila harga BBM dinaikkan, namun inflation expectations cenderung tetap tinggi karena perkiraan kenaikan harga. Profil kredit Indonesia, menurut Fitch, memiliki toleransi yang lebih besar atas kelemahan struktrural dibanding kebijakan moneter yang longgar. Fitch juga meyakini Bank Indonesia bila dibutuhkan akan memperketat kebijakan moneternya, namun hal tersebut di masa lalu masih menjadi wilayah yang mengkhawatirkan karena bias dalam kebijakan BI. “Kami memandang bahwa sudah terjadi upaya informal menuju Pemilu 2014 dan hal itu dapat memperlambat kinerja pemerintah dan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang sebenarnya dapat memperkuat profil utang Indonesia dalam jangka panjang,” tambah Fitch.(ANS/Ant) Pasar Sedikit Kecewa terhadap Rating S&P Oleh: Ahmad Munjin Pasar Modal – Senin, 2 April 2012 | 18:55 WIB INILAH.COM, Jakarta – IHSG kembali cetak rekor tertinggi tahun ini diikuti dengan pengautan rupiah. Tapi, pasar sebenarnya sedikit kecewa dengan Standard & Poor’s Rating Service (S&P). Mengpa? Analis senior Monex Investindo Futures Zulfirman Basir mengatakan, penguatan rupiah hari ini dipicu oleh sentimen pasar yang cukup positif terutama dari eksternal. Salah satunya, para menteri keuangan Uni Eropa telah sepakat untuk menaikan kapasitas dana bailoutnya menjadi 800 miliar euro. Meskipun, ada sedikit kekhawatiran, karena angka tersebut kurang memenuhi harapan yakni 1 triliun euro. “Karena itu, rupiah ditutup pada level terkuatnya 9.130 setelah sempat melemah ke level 9.175 dari posisi pembukaan 9.150 per dolar AS,” katanya kepada INILAH.COM, di Jakarta, Senin (2/4/2012). Kurs rupiah di pasar spot valas antar bank Jakarta,Senin (2/4/2012) ditutup menguat 9 poin (0,09%) ke level 9.130/9.145 dari posisi akhir pekan lalu 9.139/9.149. Di sisi lain, rupiah juga mendapat dukungan positif setelah China merilis indeks manufaktur yang angkanya cukup positif kemarin. Angkanya jauh di atas ekspektasi sehingga meredakan kekhawatiran atas ekonomi terbersar kedua itu. Tapi, kata dia, ini juga mengurangi harapan akan adanya pelonggaran moneter lebih lanjut di China. PMI Manufacturing Index China dirilis naik jadi 53,1 per Maret 2012 dari prediksi 50,5 dan dari angka sebelumnya 51. “Karena itu, penguatan rupiah jadi terbatas,” timpalnya. Pada saat yang sama, terbatasnya pengautan rupiah juga dipicu oleh pasar yang masih mencerna efek dari keputusan paripurna DPR yang menunda penaikan harga Bahan Bakar Minyak (BBM). “Jadi, meski dari eksternal positif, sentimen pasar variatif secara umum,” tuturnya. Dia menjelaskan, kalau berkaca pada keputusan pemerintah untuk menunda penaikan harga BBM, sebenarnya efeknya tidak terlampau signifikan. “Sebab, hal itu hanya penundaan saja. Artinya, penaikan harga BBM masih akan terjadi dan akan menjadi ancaman dalam beberapa bulan mendatang,” timpalnya. Di sisi lain, pasar juga sedikit kecewa setelah Standard & Poor’s Rating Service (S&P) yang tidak menaikkan peringkat utang Indonesia ke level investment grade. “Sebelumnya sempat beredar harapan, S&P akan menaikkan peringkat Indonesia ke level investment grade (BBB),” paparnya. Tapi hari ini, Firman menjelaskan, S&P hanya mempertahankan outlook utang Indonesia pada level positif di posisi BB+ dari seharusnya BBB-, tanpa ada kenaikan peringkat. “Ini sedikit mengurangi euforia pasar domestik. Sebab, S&P perlu meninjau lebih lanjut mengenai outlook inflasi Indonesia yang mungkin masih menjadi ancaman,” tandasnya. Penundaan penaikan harga BBM, memang akan menunda lonjakan inflasi jangka pendek. “Hanya saja, dengan ekspektasi inflasi yang akan meningkat, dalam beberapa pekan terakhir, ini tentunya akan mendongrak inflasi domestik,” imbuh Firman. Alhasil, dolar AS melemah terhadap mayoritas mata uang utama kecuali terhadap euro (mata uang gabungan negara-negara Eropa). Indeks dolar AS melemah ke level 78,890 dari posisi sebelumnya 79,004. “Terhadap euro, dolar AS ditransaksikan menguat tipis ke level US$1,3352 dari sebelumnya US$1,3357 per euro,” imbuh Firman. Dari bursa saham, Kepala Riset PT Universal Broker Indonesia Satrio Utomo mengatakan, penguatan sebesar 44,52 poin (1,08%) ke angka 4.166,072 dipicu oleh aksi dari investor lokal yang mengikuti jejak pembelian saham dari investor asing. “Betapa tidak, asing sudah berposisi net buy hingga Rp10 triliun dalam sebulan terakhir,” imbuhnya. Menkeu Minta Rating Bagus dari S&P Oleh: Agustina Melani Ekonomi – Kamis, 29 Maret 2012 | 16:01 WIB INILAH.COM, Jakarta – Menteri keuangan Agus Martowardojo mengharapkan lembaga pemeringkat internasional Standard & Poor’s (S&P) memberikan penilaian yang baik terhadap ekonomi Indonesia saat ini. Agus berharap demikian karena hanya S&P saja yang belum memberikan peringkat investment grade kepada Indonesia. Beberapa lembaga pemeringkat internasional seperti Moody’s dan Fitch telah memberi peringkat investment grade kepada indonesia. Investment grade berarti peringkat yang menunjukkan negara memiliki kemampuan yang cukup dalam melunasi utangnya. “Kita harap S&P bisa memberikan update yang baik,” tutur Agus di gedung DPR, Jakarta (29/3/2012) Lebih lanjut Agus menuturkan, pada Rabu (28/3) S&P telah meminta informasi terbaru tentang kondisi fiskal Indonesia saat ini di tengah perlambatan ekonomi dunia yang sedang melanda. “Dia baru minta update info jadi perhatian yang tinggi memang terhadap perkembangan fiskal,” katanya. Agus menambahkan, usaha pemerintah untuk meredam perlambatan ekonomi global tersebut dengan memperkuat ketahanan fiskal dalm perubahan APBN diapresiasi oleh lembaga tersebut.”Kita melakukan RAPBNP cukup diapresiasi.” [tjs] Subsidi Dipangkas Demi Investment Grade Oleh: Agustina Melani Ekonomi – Kamis, 29 Maret 2012 | 19:35 WIB INILAH.COM, Jakarta – Pemerintah berharap bisa menjaga defisit untuk memperoleh peringkat investment grade dari lembaga pemeringkat internasional Standard & Poor’s (S&P). Salah satunya, dengan memangkas subsidi. “Salah satunya dengan menjaga subsidi karena dengan adanya subsidi yang membengkak terus itu akan pengaruhi defisit. Intinya investor asing ingin APBN kita itu suistain sehingga kewajiban utang bisa dibayar dengan baik dan tepat waktu,” ujar Direktorat Jenderal Pengelolaan Utang Kementerian Keuangan Rahmat Waluyanto, saat ditemui wartawan di gedung DPR RI, Kamis (29/3/2012). Ia mengatakan, bila ada pengurangan beban subsidi dengan cara apapun maka dapat memberikan dampak positif sebagai untuk kepercayaan pasar. Rahmat mengatakan, ekonomi Indonesia Indonesia memang dilihat cukup baik oleh investor asing. Hal itu didukung dari potensi penerimaan negara yang terus naik dan belanja efisien. Sehingga Indonesia diharapkan dapat menjaga defisitnya. Sebelumnya, Menteri keuangan Agus Martowardojo mengharapkan S&P memberikan penilaian yang baik terhadap ekonomi yang terjadi pada Indonesia saat ini. Agus berharap demikian karena hanya S&P yang belum memberikan peringkat investment grade kepada Indonesia. Beberapa lembaga pemeringkat internasional seperti Moody’s dan Fitch telah memberi peringkat investment grade kepada indonesia.

Investment grade berarti peringkat yang menunjukkan negara memiliki kemampuan yang cukup dalam melunasi utangnya.”Kita harap S&P bisa memberikan update yang baik,” tutur Agus di gedung DPR, Jakarta (29/3/2012). [tjs] JAKARTA – Pemerintah berharap lembaga pemeringkat internasional Standart and Poor (S&P) dapat memberikan label investment grade kepada Indonesia, karena hingga saat ini S&P belum juga memberikan label investment grade kepada Indonesia. “Kita harap S&P bisa memberikan update yang baik,” ungkap Menteri Keuangan Agus DW Martowardojo kala ditemui di Gedung DPR, Senayan, Jakarta, Kamis (29/3/2012). Menurut Agus, kemarin, Rabu 28 Maret, S&P telah meminta informasi terbaru tentang kondisi fiskal Indonesia saat ini di tengah perlambatan ekonomi dunia yang sedang melanda. “Dia baru minta update info jadi perhatian yang tinggi memang terhadap perkembangan fiskal,” paparnya. Agus menjelaskan, usaha pemerintah untuk meredam perlambatan ekonomi global tersebut dengan memperkuat ketahanan fiskal dalam perubahan APBN diapresiasi oleh S&P sendiri. “Kita melakukan rancangan APBN Perubahan ini cukup diapresiasi,” pungkasnya. Sekadar informasi, beberapa lembaga pemeringkat internasional seperti Moody’s dan Fitch telah memberi gelar investment grade kepada Indonesia. Salah satu alasan gelar tersebut diberikan karena ketahanan fiskal dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia yang kuat di tengah krisis ekonomi tingkat global saat ini. http://economy.okezone.com/read/2012/03/29/20/601957/menkeu-berharap-s-p-segera-ganjar-ri-investment-grade (http://economy.okezone.com/read/2012/03/29/20/601957/menkeuberharap-s-p-segera-ganjar-ri-investment-grade) Sumber : OKEZONE.COM

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March 29, 2012April 28, 2012

beautiful: ketidaksetaraan ITU … 290312 Body of evidence Is a concentration of wealth at the top to blame for financial crises? Mar 17th 2012 | from the print edition IN THE search for the villain behind the global financial crisis, some have pointed to inequality as a culprit. In his 2010 book “Fault Lines”, Raghuram Rajan of the University of Chicago argued that inequality was a cause of the crisis, and that the American government served as a willing accomplice. From the early 1980s the wages of working Americans with little or no university education fell ever farther behind those with university qualifications, he pointed out. Under pressure to respond to the problem of stagnating incomes, successive presidents and Congresses opened a flood of mortgage credit. In 1992 the government reduced capital requirements at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two huge sources of housing finance. In the 1990s the Federal Housing Administration expanded its loan guarantees to cover bigger mortgages with smaller down-payments. And in the 2000s Fannie and Freddie were encouraged to buy more subprime mortgage-backed securities. Inequality, Mr Rajan argued, prepared the ground for disaster. Mr Rajan’s story was intended as a narrative of the subprime crisis in America, not as a general theory of financial dislocation. But others have noted that inequality also soared in the years before the Depression of the 1930s. In 2007 23.5% of all American income flowed to the top 1% of earners—their highest share since 1929. In a 2010 paper Michael Kumhof and Romain Rancière, two economists at the International Monetary Fund, built a model to show how inequality can systematically lead to crisis. An investor class may become better at capturing the returns to production, slowing wage growth and raising inequality. Workers then borrow to prop up their consumption. Leverage grows until crisis results. Their model absolves politicians of responsibility; inequality works its mischief without the help of government. New research hints at other ways inequality could spur crisis. In a new paper* Marianne Bertrand and Adair Morse, both of the University of Chicago, study patterns of spending across American states between 1980 and 2008. In particular, they focus on how changes in the behaviour of the richest 20% of households affect the spending choices of the bottom 80%. They find that a rise in the level of consumption of rich households leads to more spending by the non-rich. This “trickle-down consumption” appears to result from a desire to keep up with the Joneses. Non-rich households spend more on luxury goods and services supplied to their more affluent neighbours—domestic services, say, or health clubs. Had the incomes of America’s top 20% of earners grown at the same, more leisurely pace as the median income, they reckon that the bottom 80% might have saved more over the past three decades—$500 per household per year for the entire period between 1980 and 2008, or $800 per year just before the crisis. In states where the highest earners were wealthiest, non-rich households were more likely to report “financial duress”. The paper also reveals how responsive government is to rising income inequality. The authors analyse votes on the credit-expansion measures cited in Mr Rajan’s book. When support for a bill varies, the authors find that legislators representing more unequal districts were significantly more likely to back a loosening of mortgage rules. Inequality may drive instability in other ways. Although sovereign borrowing was not a direct contributor to the crisis of 2008, it has since become the principal danger to the financial system. In another recent paper Marina Azzimonti of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Eva de Francisco of Towson University and Vincenzo Quadrini of the University of Southern California argue that income inequality may have had a troubling effect in this area of finance, too. The authors’ models suggest that a less equitable distribution of wealth can boost demand for government borrowing to provide for the lagging average worker. In the recent past this demand would have coincided with a period of financial globalisation that allowed many governments to rack up debt cheaply. Across a sample of 22 OECD countries from 1973 to 2005, they find support for the notion that inequality, financial globalisation and rising government debt do indeed march together. The idea that inequality might create pressure for more redistribution through public borrowing also occurred to Mr Rajan, who acknowledges that stronger safety nets are a more common response to inequality than credit subsidies. Liberalised global finance and rising inequality may thus have led to surging public debts. Reasonable doubt Other economists wonder whether income inequality is not wrongly accused. Michael Bordo of Rutgers University and Christopher Meissner of the University of California at Davis recently studied 14 advanced countries from 1920 to 2008 to test the inequality-causes-busts hypothesis. They turn up a strong relationship between credit booms and financial crises—a result confirmed by many other economic studies. There is no consistent link between income concentration and credit booms, however. Inequality occasionally rises with credit creation, as in America in the late 1920s and during the years before the 2008 crisis. This need not mean that the one causes the other, they note. In other cases, such as in Australia and Sweden in the 1980s, credit booms seem to drive inequality rather than the other way around. Elsewhere, as in 1990s Japan, rapid growth in the share of income going to the highest earners coincided with a slump in credit. Rising real incomes and low interest rates reliably lead to credit booms, they reckon, but inequality does not. Mr Rajan’s story may work for America’s 2008 crisis. It is not an iron law. Sources “Inequality, leverage and crises” by Michael Kumhof and Romain Rancière, IMF Working Paper, November 2010 “Trickle-down consumption” by Marianne Bertrand and Adair Morse, Working paper, February 2012 “Does inequality lead to a financial crisis?” by Michael Bordo and Christopher Meissner, NBER Working Paper, March 2012 “Financial globalization, inequality, and the raising of public debt” by Marina Azzimonti, Eva de Francisco and Vincenzo Quadrini, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Working Paper, February 2012 Economist.com/blogs/freeexchange bumi2009fans

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March 29, 2012

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beautiful: Pulih (30) : 290312 KRISIS EKONOMI: Asean gandakan cadangan hingga US$240 miliar Oleh Algooth Putranto Kamis, 29 Maret 2012 | 06:50 WIB bisnis indonesia JAKARTA: Pertemuan Menteri Keuangan Asean ke-16 yang digelar di Phnom Phen kemarin menyepakati menggandakan dana perjanjian pertukaran (swap) mata uang regional dari saat ini US$120 miliar menjadi US$240 miliar. Kebijakan yang telah disetujui China, Jepang, dan Korea Selatan (ASEAN+3) tersebut dilakukan untuk mencegah kemungkinan krisis ekonomi yang terjadi di Eropa dan Amerika Serikat menular ke perekonomian Asia Tenggara. Krisis ekonomi Eropa dan AS mengancam eksportir di Asia Tenggara sehingga dibutuhkan instrumen dalam bentuk keuangan terpadu antar negara anggota dan meningkatkan akses ke dana darurat. “Yang paling penting adalah mencegah krisis. . . Menurut pendapat pribadi saya, ancaman terbesar bagi kawasan ini adalah arus masuk modal besar dari daerah lain, ” kata Deputi Gubernur Bank Sentral Myanmar U Maung Maung Win seperti dikutip dari Phnom Phen Post. Menurut Vongsey Vissoth, sekretaris umum di Departemen Ekonomi dan Keuangan Kamboja langkah yang harus ditempuh a.l. menyelaraskan modal di kawasan pasar, peraturan pabean, asuransi dan praktek pajak sehingga investasi di antara anggota Asean menjadi lebih efisien jelang integrasi masyarakat ekonomi Asean 2015 Meski demikian, menurut wakil gubernur Bank Republik Demokrat Rakyat Laos Sonexay Sitphaxay kendala terbesar untuk integrasi adalah kerangka hukum masing-masing negara. Penguatan fungsi swap mata uang atau yang dikenal dengan Chiang Mai Initiative dirancang untuk mencegah krisis keuangan di negara-negara yang cadangan devisanya relatif kecil dengan memberikan jaminan pengamanan terhadap kekurangan likuiditas di masa depan. Dana swap dibutuhkan meski Asean saat ini memiliki 20% dari US$120 miliar dana yang tersedia bisa digunakan tanpa persetujuan pinjaman dari Dana Moneter Internasional (International Monetary Fund/IMF). Namun ekonomi Asia yang rentan terhadap spekulasi mata uang membuat China, Jepang, dan Korea Selatan dan negara anggota Asean bertekad untuk melindungi sesama anggota dari pertukaran mata uang dengan menggunakan cadangan mata uang asingnya. (faa) BofA Merrill Lynch Fund Manager Survey Finds Investors Displaying Growing Conviction in Growth Portfolio managers indicate that QE era is coming to an end Investors are increasingly bullish about prospects for global growth and a diminishing number expect further rounds of quantitative easing (QE) by central banks, according to the BofA Merrill Lynch Survey of Fund Managers for March. A net 28 percent of investors expect the world economy to strengthen in the coming 12 months – a big rise from a net 11 percent in February. As recently as January the majority of respondents predicted that the economy would weaken. Eurozone confidence has risen – this month sees an even split between those expecting a stronger or weaker eurozone economy. In February a net 35 percent predicted the economy would deteriorate. Investors are more optimistic about corporate profits. A net 6 percent of the panel expect corporate profits to improve in the coming year. A month ago a net 11 percent predicted profits would decline. Fewer investors expect the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to engage in further QE. Nearly half of the panel (47 percent) expects no further QE in the U.S., up from 36 percent in February. Thirty nine percent predict the European Central Bank will not extend QE, up from 23 percent a month ago. However investors foresee higher inflation with a net 13 percent expect it to rise in the coming year. Only last month a net 16 percent predicted inflation would fall. “The prospect of higher inflation reflects a victory of central banks in the war against deflation. Risk appetite is rising with hedge funds more active but cash is still on the sidelines to put to work” said Michael Hartnett, chief Global Equity strategist at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. “We are witnessing a rehabilitation of European growth prospects, boosted by a sharp fall in EU sovereign concerns” said Gary Baker, head of European Equities strategy at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. Attention shifts to developed economies from emerging markets Growth prospects in Europe, the U.S. and Japan are overshadowing emerging markets where some investors are turning bearish. Global investors hold far fewer fears about the eurozone. The numbers naming EU sovereign debt as their number one ‘tail risk’ has declined sharply to 38 percent this month from 59 percent in February. Investors within the eurozone are both more bullish about growth and far less worried about corporate profits. A net 7 percent expect corporate earnings in the eurozone to deteriorate in the coming 12 months, down from a net 39 percent in February and a net 84 percent in December. A net 29 percent of U.S. investors say the U.S. economy with get stronger in the year ahead, up from a net 15 percent in February. Japanese fund managers are the most bullish with a net 91 percent saying that Japan’s economy with strengthen, up from a net 47 percent two months ago. While Global Emerging Markets remain the most popular region, concerns about China’s growth prospects have increased. A net 9 percent of respondents say China’s economy will weaken in the next year, up from a net 2 percent in February. Sentiment within Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) has dampened. A net 41 percent of respondents to the regional survey expect the region’s economy to weaken in the year ahead, up from a net 35 percent last month. Furthermore inflation concerns have risen significantly among Asia Pacific fund managers. A net 41 percent of respondents now expect inflation in the region to rise in the coming year. Only last month a net 5 percent predicted inflation to fall. Banks gaining momentum – U.S. underweight position disappears Banks and financial services companies have enjoyed a second month of popularity among investors as allocations towards equities have risen. The proportion of global asset allocators underweight banks has fallen 11 percentage points month-on-month to a net 14 percent. U.S. investors are now collectively neutral on banks with a net zero percent over/underweight this month. Two months ago a net 16 percent were underweight banks. In Europe the net underweight position in banks has shrunk to 7 percent from 50 percent in January. Technology remains comfortably the top sector globally but it has also enjoyed a big surge in popularity among Europeans. A net 33 percent of eurozone investors are overweight technology, up from a net 10 percent in February. The sector has overtaken automotives/parts to become the region’s most popular. Survey of Fund Managers An overall total of 278 panelists with US$796 billion of assets under management participated in the survey from 9 to 15 March. A total of 212 managers, managing US$639 billion, participated in the global survey. A total of 145 managers, managing US$354 billion, participated in the regional surveys. The survey was conducted by BofA Merrill Lynch Research with the help of market research company TNS. Through its international network in more than 50 countries, TNS provides market information services in over 80 countries to national and multinational organizations. It is ranked as the fourth-largest market information group in the world. March 21, 2012, 1:05 p.m. EDT European crisis is not over, Bernanke says Progress has been made, but more needs doing: Fed chief By Greg Robb, MarketWatch WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — While financial stresses in Europe have lessened, more work needs to be done to fully resolve the region’s crisis, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday. “The position of the United States has generally been that Europe needs to really step up and do a lot more,” Bernanke said in testimony before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. European leaders must strengthen the banking system, build a stronger financial backstop to guard against contagion in sovereign-debt markets, and “critically” take steps to increase growth and competitiveness and reduce external imbalances in the region’s troubled countries, Bernanke said. “Europe’s financial and economic situation remains difficult, and it is critical that European leaders follow through on their policy commitments to ensure a lasting stabilization,”Bernanke said. Bernanke’s comments fit closely with the views of the Obama administration. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, who testified alongside Bernanke, said Europe remains “only at the early stages of what will be a long and difficult path of reform.” The International Monetary Fund should only play a “modest, supplemental role” in solving the European crisis, Geithner said. Stocks were trading lower Wednesday as investors worried that the economy was not as strong as hoped. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was recently down 12 points to 12,158. The European Central Bank’s decision to pour $1 trillion of liquidity into the European banking system has alleviated concerns about near-term prospects, Bernanke said. Bernanke defended the Fed’s actions to lower the cost of U.S. dollar swap facilities than enabled foreign central banks to provide dollars to banks in their home countries. Usage of the swap lines peaked at $109 billion in mid-February and has fallen back to about $65 billion recently, Bernanke said. The swap lines have eased funding pressure on European banks, lowered tensions in U.S. money markets, allowed foreign banks to maintain lending in the U.S. and boosted confidence at a time when financial markets were beset by stresses, Bernanke said. The swaps are “very safe” from the perspective of the U.S. taxpayer, he said. The counterparties for the loans are foreign central banks and not commercial banks, he noted. Bernanke also said U.S. banks have limited exposure to peripheral European countries. At the same time, their exposure to European banks and “core” countries is “more material,” he said. In addition, European holdings represent 35% of the assets of prime U.S. money market funds. Risks of contagion remain a concern although banks and money funds have had time to adjust their exposures and hedge their risks, according to Bernanke. The top U.S. central banker noted that the results of stress tests recently administered by the Fed showed “a significant majority” of the nation’s largest banks would have sufficient capital to weather a hypothetical crisis. The Fed chairman said he saw no evidence that a crisis like the collapse of American International Group (NYSE:AIG) was on the horizon. Many members of the House panel took the opportunity to ask about more domestic concerns. Pressed about the high price of gasoline, Bernanke said the price-spike was a concern because it could slow spending and boost inflation, at least in the short-term. Bernanke said that the value of the dollar has been relatively stable. “I think our policies are achieving support for the economy without damaging the value of the dollar,” Bernanke said. Geithner took the opportunity to repeat the White House’s firm opposition to the budget plan unveiled by House Republicans on Tuesday. “The Ryan plan…would not just cut spending too deeply and prematurely in the short-term” but would “dramatically” erode the nation’s safety net, he said. “We do not believe they would be responsible to adopt at a time that the economy is still healing from a devastating crisis,” Geithner said. ATHENS, March 21, 2012 (AFP) The Greek parliament formally ratified early Wednesday a second eurozone bailout scheme worth up to 130 billion euros ($170 billion) to save it from defaulting on its national debts. The text was approved overnight by 213 socialist and conservative parliamentary deputies and opposed by just 79 members from the communist left and far-right. The result was in little doubt given the large majority which the transitional government of caretaker prime minister Lucas Papademos can command. The ratification came after Greece received on Tuesday a first payout of 7.5 billion euros under its second international bailout, a finance ministry official said. Greece received 5.9 billion euros from the eurozone and 1.6 billion euros from the International Monetary Fund, the official said. The eurozone approved the new rescue programme following a debt swap with private creditors earlier this month that wiped some 100 billion euros off Greece’s debt. The IMF followed up with a 28 billion euro package. The funds are being disbursed in installments provided Greece meets agreed targets to cut its spending excesses and reform its economy. The government has said that the public deficit for 2011, a key sign of the country’s economic recovery closely monitored by its creditors, is expected to close at 9.2 percent of output. The figure was included in a presentation by deputy finance minister Philippos Sachinidis to economists on Monday. In January, the then development minister had put the 2011 deficit at 9.6 percent thanks to a successful absorption of European Union support funds. Deficit reduction is a key requirement for the continued release of EU and IMF loans that are keeping the Greek economy on its feet. Sachinidis, 49, is seen as a possible replacement for Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos who stepped down this week to lead the socialist Pasok party to elections expected by early May. A first bailout EU-IMF package worth 110 billion euros was agreed in 2010. Without the latest funding Greece was facing a chaotic default which European leaders feared would spread throughout the 17-nation eurozone and beyond. The interim government was formed late last year after Socialist Prime Minister George Papandreou stepped down in the midst of the crisis. Its main job is to take measures to avoid a default before organising polls by mid-May. The election date is expected to be announced next week. March 19, 2012, 2:02 pmInvestment Banking In Greek Crisis, a Little-Known Adviser With Outsize Influence By SUSANNE CRAIG nyt Craig Phillips of BlackRock Solutions.Michael Falco for The New York TimesCraig Phillips of BlackRock Solutions. ATHENS — In unmarked offices here on a dusty block choked with strip clubs and burned-out buildings, several dozen employees of a Wall Street firm spent months poring over bank loan portfolios as Greece struggled with its debt crisis. They belong to what has become the go-to SWAT team in financial crises. Their employer, BlackRock, may be little known outside financial circles even as it manages a world-leading $3.51 trillion of assets, but the firm is exerting enormous influence as a behind-the-scenes adviser to troubled governments around the globe. In Greece, BlackRock is helping determine just how much capital the country’s banks will need to raise in the coming months. It is a crucial step as Greece tries to fix its banking industry and its broader economy, but the task is a risky one. Set the capital levels too low and financial firms may not have an adequate cushion to withstand further losses. Set the bar too high and the banks may struggle to find investors willing to come up with the money. In either situation, the government could be forced to step in with additional money, deepening the country’s woes. BlackRock knows the stakes. Along with Greece, the financial firm has advised the Irish government and the British Treasury. In Ireland, BlackRock’s findings formed the basis of a bank’s effort to raise an additional $34 billion. The United States Treasury hired BlackRock during the 2008 financial crisis to help value real estate and other assets the government was acquiring as it stepped in to bail out teetering financial firms like the American International Group. The executive who leads these efforts, Craig Phillips, keeps a poster of the movie “The Exorcist” in his office, saying that he sees his job as helping governments and companies confront their problems. “We have been conditioned to be ultraresponsive,” he said. The appeal of BlackRock is that it has the size, systems and expertise to scour and analyze huge volumes of financial data quickly. In Greece, for example, it reviewed 10 million loans in about three months. Another attraction is that unlike other financial firms — say, Goldman Sachs — BlackRock is not known for making splashy bets that can land it in the headlines. It has largely flown beneath the public’s radar. Yet BlackRock is no stranger to controversy. In the United States, the firm — which makes most of its profits by managing money for investors, pension funds, endowments and other institutions — has been criticized for buying and selling some of the same securities that its BlackRock Solutions unit is valuing for the government. Few firms have such access to a vast amount of market-moving information, and that, some critics say, presents a potential conflict of interest. “Imagine you consult with Greece and you see the inside issues and you realize with greater certainty it’s going to go a certain way,” said Robert Jarrow, a professor of finance at Cornell University. “How could you not make investment decisions based on that?” Evangelos Venizelos, Greece’s finance minister.Simela Pantzartzi/European Pressphoto AgencyEvangelos Venizelos, Greece’s finance minister. Eyebrows were raised in Greece when the firm was approached to handle loan valuation work for a friendly merger in Greece between two banks it had just reviewed. BlackRock said it hadn’t made a decision on whether to accept this assignment. Mr. Phillips added that the company had internal guidelines, which are in place to “manage actual and perceived conflicts of interest.” There is little disputing BlackRock’s rise as one of the world’s most influential players. During the financial crisis in the United States, the firm’s chief executive, Laurence D. Fink, turned his Rolodex of contacts into a number of assignments for the federal government. Now, BlackRock Solutions logs revenue of $510 million, up from $198 million in 2007. It earned $17 million on the Greece project. The call from Greece came during the last week of June. Over the last decade, the country had issued billions of dollars of sovereign debt, prompting a crisis that has crushed the country’s economy, pressured its banks and rattled the European financial system. To help stabilize the system, the Bank of Greece looked for a firm to review the loan portfolios of 18 financial firms. Bank of Greece asked BlackRock and three other firms, Blackstone, Oliver Wyman and Alvarez & Marsal, to submit a proposal on how each would go about valuing the portfolios. While the other companies had analytical and restructuring credentials, BlackRock had an advantage in having just completed a similar assignment in Ireland. “They were the only company that had analyzed a banking system in the same period of time,” said Charalampos Stamatopoulos, a member of the monetary policy council at the Bank of Greece. News that BlackRock had been hired sent shock waves through the Greek banking system. Officials worried that local banks would have to raise significant levels of capital — as in Ireland — and put additional strain on institutions. “We had heard about their work in Ireland, and their results caused a lot of panic,” said Artemis Theodoridis, head of wholesale banking at Alpha Bank. “It was scary.” BlackRock faced a number of obstacles. This was its largest assignment yet — in Ireland it looked at just four banks. It was also the first job where staff members did not speak the language. Job seekers at an employment center in Athens.Kostas Tsironis/Bloomberg NewsJob seekers at an employment center in Athens. In a city at times rocked by violent protests, BlackRock sought a low profile. Employees were not allowed to carry or wear anything bearing the company logo. The firm hired 18 armed security guards to transport employees in vans or, in rare cases, on motorcycles. BlackRock even had a code name: Solar, leading some tenants in its office building to think the team was a solar energy company. As part of the assignment, BlackRock gathered information on millions of loans and used the data to create a view of the loss potential on the portfolios. The banks set up data rooms for BlackRock and uploaded information, allowing the firm to see things like collateral and payment history. BlackRock and the banks butted heads on some issues. For instance, BlackRock wanted to write all loans backed by third-party guarantees to zero, since they were riskier than those backed by collateral.The banks resisted, but “in the end there was no room for debate,” said George Aronis, also of Alpha Bank. The loans were written down to zero. Jessica Tan and Charles Hatami, two of BlackRock’s day-to-day managers in Greece, said that they were surprised by both the quality of the data and the results. Most institutions, they said, did not lend recklessly, as the United States banks did during the real estate boom. “The consumer lending market is relatively new in Greece, and they were disciplined in their approach,” Mr. Phillips of BlackRock said. “Unlike other countries, the Greek consumer is not debt laden.” Maria Mavridou, alternate director of financial stability at the Bank of Greece, said that BlackRock’s findings were likely to be released in the coming weeks by the government. The report will describe the current state of the Greek banking system and outline additional capital requirements. “They didn’t know anything about Greece, but they sure know data and what to do with it,” she said.

The richest get richer By David Cay Johnston March 15, 2012 reuters The aftermaths of the Great Recession and the Great Depression produced sharply different changes in U.S. incomes that tell us a lot about tax and economic policy. The 1934 economic rebound was widely shared, with strong income gains for the vast majority, the bottom 90 percent. In 2010, we saw the opposite as the vast majority lost ground. National income gained overall in 2010, but all of the gains were among the top 10 percent. Even within those 15.6 million households, the gains were extraordinarily concentrated among the super-rich, the top one percent of the top one percent. Just 15,600 super-rich households pocketed an astonishing 37 percent of the entire national gain. The different results in 1934 and 2010 show how a major shift in federal policy hurts the vast majority and benefits the super-rich.

NEW POLICY BOOSTS THE RICH Starting in 1933, government policy aimed to improve the lot of the vast majority through such policies as massive government-financed jobs and construction programs. But since 1980 policy has focused on helping the already rich get richer still with such policies as lower taxes and fewer audits. The updated figures illustrating income changes, all in 2010 dollars, come from analysis of the latest IRS data by economists Emmanuel Saez and Thomas Piketty. Saez received the 2009 John Bates Clark Medal, awarded to the economist under 40 who has made the greatest contribution to that field, and a 2010 MacArthur genius grant. Their data expands on what I reported first last fall – median pay fell in 2010 to its lowest level since 1999. Saez and Piketty show that the vast majority’s average adjusted gross income, of which wages are just a part, was $29,840 in 2010. That was down $127 from 2009 and down $4,842 from 2000. Most shocking? The average income of the vast majority of taxpayers in 2010 was just a smidgen more than the $29,448 average way back in 1966. At the top, the super-rich saw their 2010 average income grow by $4.2 million over 2009 to $23.8 million. Compared to 1966 their income was up on average by $18.7 million per taxpayer.

We should expect this pattern of concentrated gains weighted toward the very top to continue unless we change our policies. Saez shows that the top one percent’s share of real income growth is increasing with each economic expansion and it matters not whether the president is a Democrat or Republican. The top one percent enjoyed 45 percent of Clinton-era income growth, 65 percent of Bush-era growth and 93 percent of Obama-era growth, though that is only through 2010. While markets are a factor, I think the evidence makes clear that government policy is at the core of the differing fortunes of the vast majority and the super-rich. Inaugural addresses of Franklin Roosevelt and Barack Obama bring this into sharp focus. Both spoke of the need for restoring confidence, while denouncing greed and irresponsible conduct. Roosevelt in 1933 specified “callous and selfish wrongdoing” by bankers abusing a “sacred trust.” Obama vaguely referred to the “consequence of greed and irresponsibility on the part of some.” Roosevelt said that “our greatest primary task is to put people to work.” Obama, again less specific, spoke of government that “helps families find jobs at a decent wage.” Roosevelt brought in trustbusters, reformers and even an expert at Wall Street manipulations to implement policies benefiting the vast majority. FINANCIAL INSIDERS By contrast, while Obama called Wall Street executives “fat cats,” he surrounded himself with financial insiders with the exception of Elizabeth Warren, the Harvard bankruptcy expert now seeking election to the U.S. Senate. His administration has failed to prosecute the central figures in the frauds that created our economic distress. Government policy can change again and for the better. We can create a growing economy with widely shared prosperity. We need to increase spending on education and research to maximize returns from human capital. We need to create jobs rebuilding our decaying infrastructure so people and goods move efficiently. We need to honor markets, letting mismanaged banks and insurers receive their just desserts in U.S. Bankruptcy Court. We need to adjust our focus away from financial sector profits to people. We need to reform taxes to discourage capital withdrawals and offshoring and, instead, encourage reinvestment of profits at home. If we don’t, the vast majority will see their incomes go on eroding slowly while those at the top enjoy an ever-larger share of national income and wealth. The inevitable result will be economic, political and social instability – not a pretty picture for anyone. Jumat, 16/03/2012 06:55 WIB 10 Tips Supaya Cepat Kaya Angga Aliya – detikFinance Jakarta – Jalan menuju kaya tidak mudah, perlu dedikasi, konsentrasi, keahlian dan ketabahan yang sangat tinggi. Sebelum memupuk kekayaan, yang anda harus perhatikan pertama kali adalah membuat fondasi yang kuat. Seperti layaknya bangunan, jika fondasinya sudah kuat, maka gedung tersebut akan bertahan lama dengan sendirinya. Fondasi dalam keuangan tak lepas dari kondisi kesehatan finansial anda sendiri. Semakin sehat kondisi finansial anda, maka semakin bagus fondasi yang anda bangun. Kathy Virgallito, Direktur Regional Consumer Credit Counseling Service (CCCS), sebuah yayasan non profit yang biasa membantu orang mengontrol finansialnya dengan baik, memberikan beberap tips yang bisa anda ikuti untuk membangun fondasi keuangan yang kuat. Semakin dini anda menyehatkan kondisi keuangan, maka jalan menuju kaya semakin terbuka lebar. Berikut 10 tips yang dilansir dari situs CCCS, Jumat (16/3/2012), yang bisa membantu anda menyehatkan kondisi keuangan sejak dini. 1. Jika kurangnya pendapatan menjadi masalah utama, sering-seringlah mencari info untuk lowongan baru di perusahaan lain. Sementara menunggu, tingkatkan keahlian dan nilai jual anda. Bisa juga anda mengambil sekolah lagi demi peluang kerja yang lebih besar. 2. Ketahui kebiasaan anda, mulai dari kebiasaan baik hingga buruk. Jujurlah pada diri sendiri karena akan mempermudah mengenali diri anda sendiri. Hal ini akan berguna ketika anda mulai mengatur keuangan sendiri. 3. Susun target jangkan pendek yang bisa disambungkan dengan target jangka panjang demi taraf hidup yang lebih baik. Buatlah target tersebut dengan spesifik mungkin, realistis dan bisa dicapai dengan kemampuan. Pantau tersebut setiap target itu, berhasil atau gagal, setidaknya anda terus berkembang. 4. Harus disiplin dalam membedakan antara kebutuhan dan keinginan. 5. Tulis semua pengeluaran dan pemasukan. Setiap rupiah yang anda belanjakan harus terpantau, walau itu hanya Rp 1.000. Mungkin recehan terlihat sepele, tapi manfaatnya sangat besar. Biasakan periksa kembali catatan yang sudah anda buat, sehingga anda tahu uang anda lari ke mana saja. Dengan begitu, anda bisa mengurangi kebiasaan jajan yang biasanya tidak perlu. 6. Mulai menabung, meski dalam jumlah yang kecil atau bahkan uang kembalian recehan. Tabungan ini bisa menjadi dana darurat anda. Biasanya, kebutuhan mendadak bisa sangat merusak kesehatan finansial anda. Dengan adanya dana darurat, maka masalah tersebut bisa sedikit diredam. 7. Cari pihak pendukung yang bisa membantu anda mencapai target dan menuju kehidupan yang lebih baik. Keluarga dan teman dekat biasanya selalu memotivasi anda dengan baik, tapi hati-hati dengan orang yang bisa mengajak anda menghambur-hamburkan uang. 8. Manfaatkan mekanisme otomatis seperti pembayaran atau tabungan via online yang disetor bulanan. Selain menghemat tenaga, tabungan otomatis ini membuat kita tidak ingat sudah menyimpan uang. 9. Gunakan tanda-tanda agar terus memotivasi anda. Pasanglah tulisan di kulkas atau dekat meja kerja anda, isinya target-target jangka pendek anda. Atau pasang di tempat lain yang sering dan mudah terlihat sehingga anda akan makin bersemangat untuk menjadi orang kaya. 10. Mengerti dan tahu persis keseluruhan utang anda. Jika belum, pelajari dari sekarang. Cari tahu kenapa anda berutang, bagaimana anda akan melunasinya dan kapan utang tersebut berakhir. (ang/ang) BI : Masih ada tiga resiko yang harus dihadapi perekonomian Indonesia Oleh Nina Dwiantika – Selasa, 25 Januari 2011 | 17:14 WIB kontan JAKARTA. Bank Indonesia (BI) mencatat masih ada tiga risiko besar yang harus dihadapi Indonesia khususnya perbankan. Gubernur BI Darmin Nasution mengatakan, risiko tersebut merupakan risiko yang sama dengan tahun lalu. Pertama, risiko terkait global economic imbalance. “Laju kecepatan pemulihan ekonomi negara emerging market jauh melampaui negara maju,” ujar Darmin akhir pekan lalu (21/1). Menurutnya dalam memastikan durabilitas pemulihan para pemangku kebijakan di negara maju bertahan dengan kebijakan akomodatif. Sebaliknya, pemangku kebijakan di negara emering market menghadapi tantangan mencegah pemanasan ekonomi. Kedua, risiko terkait lalu lintas modal global dan sengketa mata uang atau currency war. Menurut Darmin, perbedaan siklus ekonomi dan kebijakan antara negara maju dan emerging market menguntungkan negara emerging market. “Hal ini terlihat dari derasnya aliran modal ke emerging market termasuk Indonesia,” kata Darmin. Yang jelas, BI tak mau rupiah bergerak fluktuatif. Hal ini membuat BI masih terus menjaga nilai tukar dengan cara intervensi. Dan ketiga, risiko terkait permintaan domestik dan tekanan inflasi, di mana krisis global 2008-2009 menyebabkan perdagangan baik inter maupun intra-regional merosot. Hal ini memotivasi banyak negara mengedepankan strategi mendorong permintaan domestik. “Namun, dalam konteks Indonesia, semata-mata bersandar pada permintaan domestik mengandung dua implikasi yang perlu dicermati,” katanya. Dow Jones melejit ke level tertinggi sejak 2007 Oleh Dupla Kartini, Bloomberg – Rabu, 14 Maret 2012 | 08:06 WIB kontan NEW YORK. Bursa Wall Street sumringah, setelah data penjualan ritel Amerika Serikat menunjukkan hasil yang menggembirakan. Alhasil, indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average melompat ke level tertinggi sejak 2007. Pada penutupan perdagangan pukul 4 sore di New York, indeks Dow Jones maju 1,7% ke posisi 13.177,69. Sementara, indeks Standard & Poor’s 500 melejit 1,8$ ke level 1.395,95, dan indeks Nasdaq naik 1,9% ke 3.039,88. Seluruh sektor saham yang diperdagangkan di S&P 500 menghijau, dipimpin sektor keuangan, industri, dan teknologi. Pasar saham sumringah, setelah AS merilis data penjualan ritel yang meningkat 1,1% pada Februari lalu. Ini merupakan kenaikan terbesar selama lima bulan terakhir. Sentimen di pasar juga terdongkrak karena JPMorgan Chase & Co. meningkatkan besaran pembagian dividennya. Saham JPMorgan pun berhasil melejit 7%. Diikuti, saham Bank of America Corp. dan Goldman Sachs Group Inc. yang masing-masing naik 6,2%. Federal Reserve menaikkan penilaian ekonomi, karena pasar tenaga kerja mulai menunjukkan sinyal penguatan. The Fed menyatakan, 15 dari 19 bank terbesar AS, dapat mempertahankan tingkat modal yang memadai bahkan dalam skenario resesi, di mana mereka harus melanjutkan pembayaran dividen dan pembelian saham kembali (buyback). March 13, 2012 Stocks Rally to Pre-Crisis Heights By CHRISTINE HAUSER nyt Stocks climbed to new heights in part on rosy retail sales data on Tuesday, pushing the broad market to levels last seen in June 2008 and the Nasdaq composite index to close above the 3,000 milestone for the first time since 2000. On its joy ride up in 2000, the technology-heavy Nasdaq reached its pinnacle of 5,408.60 on March 10. Then the Internet bubble burst and the index plummeted by nearly 40 percent, dropping below 3,000 that December in its worst annual loss. Though it has been flirting with closing above 3,000 for weeks, the index is now up 16 percent this year, more than the other two main Wall Street gauges. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index has jumped 11 percent so far this year, while the Dow Jones industrial average is up about 8 percent. Both of those indexes this year have already returned to their trading levels from before the 2008-09 financial crisis. The Dow closed up more than 200 points, or 1.7 percent, on Tuesday. The Nasdaq was up 1.9 percent to 3,039.88. The S.&P. gained 1.8 percent. Stocks had been strong all day after healthy retail sales were reported in the morning, but the increase accelerated after JPMorgan Chase said late in the day it was raising its dividend and authorizing a stock buyback. The composition of the Nasdaq has changed over the years, with many of the stocks from early 2000 no longer even listed. Back in the dot-com bubble, companies didn’t have earnings, or even business models, to back up their lofty stock market valuations.

Now, a handful of the 2,500 stocks in the index in particular have rolled out strong performances lately, such as Apple. Along with Microsoft, Oracle and Cisco, these four tech giants account for 20 percent of the weight of the index. “The technology sector is as popular as ever, maybe not as crazy as it was back in the dot-com 1998-2000 timeframe, but technology firms are pretty popular this time around,” said Paul Larson, chief equities strategist for Morningstar. “They also had strong underlying fundamentals to back up these prices.” In 2000, he said, “a lot of the blue-chip names were trading at 35 to 40 times their earnings.” Now, Apple, Microsoft, Cisco and Oracle are trading in the low teens or single digit multiples of earnings. The price/earnings ratio for the Nasdaq index over all is 24, compared with the S.&P.’s 14, while Nasdaq’s in 2000 was a sky-high 155. But analysts are approaching the new 3,000 level with caution, saying it might be more representative of a few companies than a trend that is happening for the collective group. The index is weighted by capitalization, which means about 500 technology stocks that trade on the Nasdaq exchange account for more than 48 percent of the index. About 315 consumer services stocks account for about 18 percent and about 406 health care stocks by 12 percent. Mark Sue, a communications technology analyst with RBC Capital Markets, said the rise of the index is not broad-based, with value and market share shifting from one company at the expense of others. “It has not been a rising tide for everybody,” said Mr. Sue, of the index’s climb. “A lot of these stocks have not done well over the last four or five years. Companies have donated market share to the new leaders.” Apple gained market share from Research in Motion, Nokia and Motorola, for example. Cisco gained share from Nortel but in turn lost some share to Juniper Networks which in turn lost share to smaller players, said Mr. Sue. Ericsson gained share from smaller players only to cede margins to Chinese vendors. “So few things are constant in tech,” he added. The Nasdaq 100, which represents the largest market capitalization companies, closed 2.7 percent higher in 2011, while the overall index had finished 2011 down 1.8 percent, Mr. Sue noted. So the 14 percent gain so far this year, “while encouraging, needs some sustainability to show that the environment is better and technology innovation is accelerating,” he said. While the technology component of the index has declined more than 43 percent since March, 2000, technology stocks are some of the best performing in the year to date. Apple in particular continues to have an outsize influence on the overall Nasdaq. Its share price was just over $31 in March, 2000, and it subsequently fell to below $7. It is now over $500. Other sectors represented in the Nasdaq index have shown decent gains this year. In a survey of stocks that have a market capitalization of more than $1 billion at the end of February, Vivus Inc. a biopharmaceutical company, and Sears Holdings Corp., the retailer, gained more than 100 percent from the beginning of the year, making them among the top five gainers on the Nasdaq. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, also a biopharmaceutical company, was also up nearly 100 percent in year-to date returns. “There is a fairly large proportion that are non-technology stocks,” said Kate Warne, the investment strategist for Edward Jones. BRUSEL: Para menteri keuangan kawasan Eropa akhirnya menyepakati paket bantuan tahap kedua untuk Yunani, sebagai cara untuk segera mengucrukan dana bantuan sebesar US$170 miliar atau 130 miliar euro yang dijadwalkan akan dicairkan pada bulan ini. “Program Yunani yang baru tidak hanya dimulai saat ini, tapi juga secara politis diadopsi oleh grup di Eropa,” ujar Perdana Menteri Luxemburg Jean-Claude Juncker. Secara resmi para menteri keuangan di Eropa akan memberikan persetujuan secara formal pada 14 Maret, sehari sebelum dilaksanakannya pemilihan suara di dewan International Monetary Fund, terkait dengan kontribusi lembaga keuangan internasional itu. Yunani pada saat ini sedang mengupayakan menerima lebih dari 100 miliar euro dalam tiga tahun ke depan dari European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). Chief Excutieve EFSF Klaus Regling menyatakan lembaga ini akan memulai membayar 5,9 miliar euro pada Maret, 3,3 miliar euro pada April, dan 5,3 miliar euro pada Mei. Perjanjian pada bulan ini terkait negosiasi antara Yunani, IMF, dan yang berwenang di kawasan Eropa lebih dari yang menjadi pengganti untuk dana jaminan pada 2010 yang gagal karena krisis utang. Untuk memenangkan paket dana bantuan, Yunani harus menyetujui penghematan anggaran dan menyelesaikan restrukturisasi utang terbesar dalam sejarah. “Situasi di Yunani telah berubah dan akan berdampak pada kehidupan ekonomi,” ujar Menteri Keuangan Yunani Evangelos Venizelos. Menurutnya, Yunani memiliki kewajiban mendasar dan harus melanjutkan untuk mengimplementasikan program penghematan. Utang turun 117% Pertukaran utang akan menghapuskan lebih dari 100 miliar euro dari negara keuangan Yunani, dan termasuk di dalamnya menggunakan klausul aksi kolektif untuk menghadapi partisipasi investor. Para menteri keuangan Eropa pada 9 Maret setuju untuk memenuhi persyaratan dana bantuan, dan akan mengeluarkan pembayaran sebesar 35,5 miliar dan sekaligus bunga kepada para pemegang obligasi. Juncker menyatakan menyusul hasil dari pertukaran itu, utang Yunani akan otomatis turun 117% dari produk domestik produk pada 2020, dan membuat cadangan menyusul negara itu harus memenuhi komitmennya. Masa depan Yunani di kawasan Eropa akan ditentukan pada apa yang akan terjadi. Paket dana bantuan Yunani, kata Regling, akan berarti bahwa EFSF akan mencari pasar keuangan lebih sering, menyusul penerbitan obligasi yang secara langsung berbasis non tunai. Pada pekan lalu, dana yang diterbitkan dalam bentuk obligasi mencapai 66 miliar dan surat berharga mencapai 35 miliar euro dalam bentuk kolateral di Bank Sentral Eropa, dan 31 miliar euro suku bunga dan perubahan utang. Dana di luar yang diserap sebesar 48 miliar euro dalam bentuk non tunai untuk upaya rekapitulasi perbankan Yunani. Venizelos mengharapkan negaranya akan mendapatkan 25 miliar euro untuk pengiriman pertama ke sektor perbankan dalam negeri. Regling menyatakan sisa dana yang dialokasikan ke Yunani akan dikumpulkan dari pasar keuangan. Dana itu akan dilanjutkan untuk mendukung program bantuan di Portugal dan Irlandia. “Mulai saat ini akan melakukan pantauan kepada pasar. Dan pada pekan depan kami akan melakukan tiga kali untuk menerbitkan obligasi jangka pendek, dan mengeluarkan obligasi berjangka waktu lima tahun, dan kemungkinan akan menerbitkan obligasi berjangka waktu 25 tahun hingga 30 tahun,” ujar Regling. Dia menambahkan total jumlah ini, EFSF akan berada di pasar. http://www.bisnis.com/articles/krisis-eropa-paket-bantuan-yunani-tahap-ii-disepakati (http://www.bisnis.com/articles/krisis-eropa-paket-bantuan-yunani-tahap-ii-disepakati) Sumber : BISNIS.COM INILAH.COM, Jakarta – Restrukturisasi utang Yunani dinilai berada di jalur yang benar. Karena itu, pasar optimistis sehingga indeks berpeluang menanjak hingga akhir pekan. Kepala Riset Henan Putihrai Securities Felix Sindhunata mengatakan hal itu kepada INILAH.COM. Di sisi lain, data-data ekonomi AS memberikan sinyal positif. Tapi, IHSG masih menyisakan beberapa risiko yang bisa menghambat penguatan indeks. Antara lain, pemangkasan target Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) China ke level 7,5% untuk 2012 dan krisis utang Eropa. Dari dalam negeri, kecemasan pasar atas inflasi BBM juga jadi risiko di market sehingga penguatan indeks terhambat. “Saya tidak bilang negatif, tapi membatasi momentum penguatan,” kata Felix. Pada perdagangan Senin (12/3), Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG ) ditutup melemah tipis 4,2 poin (0,11%) ke level 3.987,346 dengan intraday tertinggi 4.007,953 dan terendah 3.969. Sementara itu, indeks saham unggulan LQ45 justru menguat tipis 0,13 poin (0,02%) ke posisi 689,375.Berikut ini wawancara lengkapnya: IHSG melemah tipis kemarin ke level 3.087. Bagaimana Anda melihat arahnya hingga akhir pekan? Indeks saham domestik berpeluang menguat hingga akhir pekan ini. Salah satunya, didukung oleh pasar yang optimistis melihat perkembangan Yunani yang proses debt swap-nya dengan para kreditor swasta cukup memenuhi syarat. Tak lain, syarat untuk mendapatkan bailout tahap dua senilai 130 miliar euro. Sebanyak, 95% privat creditor, sudah berpartisipasi dalam debt swap Yunani. Karena itu, risiko Yunani dalam satu titik sudah tidak terlalu dicemaskan pasar. Sebab, bailout untuk Yunani sudah dipastikan bakal dicairkan. Dalam proses-proses recovery utangnya, sudah on the track meskipun masih jauh dari selesai. Level support dan resistance IHSG? Hingga akhir pekan ini, support indeks di level 3.930 dan resistance 4.050. Selain faktor Yunani? Pada Jumat malam pekan lalu, AS merilis data non-farm payrolls yang otomatis mau tidak mau dilihat oleh pasar. Tapi, secara umum, pasar masih tetap melihat Eropa di ambang resesi. Di sisi lain, proyeksi pertumbuhan China diturunkan jadi 7,5% dari 8% untuk 2012. Sementara itu, ekonomi AS berpeluang membaik. Kalau kita ukur, 2 negara (AS dan China) plus 1 zona ekonomi (Uni Eropa) ini berkontribusi 58% dari total Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) global. Karena itu, dari sisi sentimen global, pelaku pasar tetap akan melihat AS sebagai ekonomi terbesar dunia terutama soal pemulihan ekonominya. Kondisi ini, tercermin dari data tenaga kerja AS Jumat (9/3/2012) malam. Jika data AS sangat baik, otomatis market akan merespon positif. Apalagi, Yunani sedang on the track. Sentimen domestik bagaimana? Dari sisi domestik, momentum penguatan masih terbuka jika bursa global bergerak positif. Tapi, harus diakui masih ada risiko yang bakal menghambat pergerakan indeks. Karena itu, penguatan indeks di awal pekan ini pun terhambat. Akhir pekan lalu, penguatan hanya terjadi pada saham-saham sektor keuangan, infrastruktur, konsumsi yang punya sensitivitas terhadap suku bunga. Beberapa risiko yang harus dilihat terutama masalah domestik yang masih terganggu oleh rencana kenaikan harga Bahan Bakar Minyak (BBM) per 1 April 2012. Sentimen BBM masih cukup kuat di market. Dari eksternal, hingga saat ini sentimennya relatif bagus. Karena itu, meski hingga akhir pekan ini market global positif, momentum penguatan indeks domestik akan terbatasi oleh kekhawatiran pasar pada inflasi BBM. Saya tidak bilang negatif, tapi membatasi momentum penguatan. Saham-saham pilihan Anda? Saya rekomendasikan positif lima saham dari empat sektor berbeda—perbankan, alat berat, rokok dan perkebunan. Saham-saham pilihan hingga akhir pekan adalah PT Bank Mandiri (BMRI), PT United Tractor (UNTR), PT Bank Central Asia (BBCA), PT Gudang Garam (GGRM) dan PT London Sumatera Plantation (LSIP). Strategi trading-nya? Semuanya buy untuk daily trading bukan untuk jangka panjang. Sebab, rekomendasi ini bersifat teknikal harian dari analisis kita. http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1839970/yunani-on-the-track-ihsg-menanjak (http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1839970/yunani-on-the-track-ihsg-menanjak) Sumber : INILAH.COM BRUSSELS, March 12, 2012 (AFP) Greece’s debt ratio will fall to 117 percent of gross domestic product by 2020, eurozone chief Jean-Claude Juncker said Monday after finance ministers conditionally approved the release of loans under its second bailout. “This is a second chance for Greece,” Eurogroup head and Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said of the new estimate for Greece’s debt sustainability brought about by a debt write-down worth more than 100 billion euros and remaining loans due under a 130-billion-euro rescue plan. Titik Terendah Krisis Eropa Telah Berlalu Tribunnews.com – Senin, 12 Maret 2012 08:34 WIB Titik Terendah Krisis Eropa Telah Berlalu AFP TRIBUNNEWS.COM BRUSSEL – Upaya pembersihan hutang Yunani oleh pihak swasta menandai titik balik dalam krisis eropa. Demikian Herman van Rompuy, presiden Uni Eropa dalam koran bisnis De Tijd. “Masalah memang belum usai, tapi titik terendah dalam krisis sudah berlalu” kata Rompuy. Ketua tetap dewan Uni Eropa mengakui bahwa dia kadang masih ragu kalau euro bisa diselamatkan. “Ada saatnya kita semua cemas. Terutama pada musim gugur 2011, saya harus meyakinkan diri sendiri bahwa krisis akan berakhir dengan baik,” kata mantan perdana mentri Belgia. Penulis: Budi Prasetyo | Investors With 60% of Greek Bonds Agree to Swap By Maria Petrakis and Fabio Benedetti-Valentini – Mar 8, 2012 6:01 AM GMT+0700 Investors with about 60 percent of the Greek bonds eligible for the nation’s debt swap have so far indicated they’ll participate, putting the country on the verge of the biggest sovereign restructuring in history. Greece’s largest banks, most of the country’s pension funds, and more than 30 European banks and insurers including BNP Paribas (BNP) SA, Commerzbank AG (CBK) and Assicurazioni Generali SpA (G) have agreed to the offer. That brings the total to about 124 billion euros ($163 billion), based on data compiled by Bloomberg from company reports and government statements. The goal of the exchange is to reduce the 206 billion euros of privately held Greek debt by 53.5 percent and turn the tide against the debt crisis that has roiled Europe for more than two years. While Greece would prefer a voluntary deal, the government has said it will use collective action clauses to force holders of Greek-law bonds into the swap if the so-called private sector involvement falls short and it gets sufficient approval from investors to change the bonds’ terms. “Adding up the commitments to participate in the Greek PSI, it is now clear that the CAC hurdles will very likely be cleared,” Commerzbank’s head of fixed-income strategy, Christoph Rieger, said in a note yesterday. Under the rules of the exchange, investors holding at least 50 percent of the eligible bonds must vote on the swap, and 66 percent of those must agree to amend the bonds to enable the government to impose the collective action clauses, Rieger said. The offer ends at 10 p.m. Athens time today. Pension Funds Hans Humes, president of Greylock Capital Management, expects holders of more than 80 percent of Greece’s government bonds to accede to the swap, he said in a Bloomberg Television interview yesterday. Humes is a member of a committee of private bondholders that negotiated the deal with the government. Greece’s six largest banks, cumulatively the biggest private holders of the country’s debt, plan to accept the offer, the Finance Ministry said March 6. Greek pension funds with about 17 billion euros of bonds will also join, Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said on Real FM Radio yesterday. More than thirty banks and insurers that were on the private creditor-investor committee for Greece plan to accept the swap, according to an e-mailed statement from the Institute of International Finance yesterday. Those investors hold an aggregate 84 billion euros of bonds, the IIF said. Default Swaps Investors who participate will get new bonds with a face value of less than half the previous securities, longer maturities and reduced interest rates, leading to a net present value loss of more than 70 percent. The new bonds do come with warrants that will provide extra income in years when Greek economic growth exceeds certain thresholds. Greece expects holders to accept the offer and is ready to force them if necessary, Venizelos said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Athens this week. The government has said it wants participation above 90 percent and is seeking a minimum level of 75 percent, including with use of the collective action clauses. “I do fully expect to be part of the collective action clause,” Patrick Armstrong, managing partner at Armstrong Investment Managers in London, said yesterday in a Bloomberg Television interview. He won’t voluntarily join in the swap because of the “minuscule” chance his bond maturing March 20 will be redeemed at face value. Compelling holdouts to take part will likely trigger insurance contracts on the debt known as credit default swaps. “I can’t see any scenario where people are forced to participate against their will and they aren’t triggered,” Armstrong said. Turning Page The swap provides “a moment for a real turning of the page,” that should allow Greece to “regain some economic vitality,” IIF Managing Director Charles Dallara, who led negotiations for private creditors in the debt-swap discussions, said in a telephone interview yesterday. The Washington, D.C.- based IIF represents more than 450 financial firms globally. The members of the IIF creditor-investor committee who agreed to participate are Ageas, Allianz SE, Alpha Bank SA, Axa SA (CS), La Banque Postale, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, Bank of Cyprus, BNP Paribas, CNP Assurances SA, Commerzbank AG (CBK), Credit Agricole SA, Credit Foncier, DekaBank Deutsche Girozentrale, Deutsche Bank AG (DBK), Dexia SA, Emporiki Bank of Greece SA, EFG Eurobank, Generali, Greylock, Groupama SA, HSBC Holdings Plc, ING Bank, Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (ISP), KBC Groep NV, Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg, Marfin Popular Bank Plc, Metlife Inc., National Bank of Greece SA (ETE), Piraeus Bank SA, Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, Societe Generale SA and UniCredit SpA. In Germany, Munich Re, DZ Bank AG and KfW Group also said they will take part in the exchange. FMS Wertmanagement, the bad bank created to prevent the collapse of German property lender Hypo Real Estate Holding AG, and Erste Abwicklungsanstalt, the restructuring unit of state-owned lender WestLB AG, are both planning to take part in the exchange, according to people familiar with the matter. The two bad banks together hold as much as 9.8 billion euros in Greek debt. WINA-Jika Yunani keluar dari zona euro akan menjadi “sebuah bencana” bagi orang-orang Yunani, Ketua Komisi Eropa Jose Manuel Barroso mengatakan kepada surat kabar Die Presse Austria edisi Selasa (6/3). “Bagi orang Yunani, itu akan menjadi bencana. Kita tahu apa yang terjadi pada penduduk Amerika Latin ketika mereka bangkrut,” katanya. “Hal ini juga akan memiliki konsekuensi yang mengerikan bagi anggota zona euro lainnya, akan memicu efek domino,” tambahnya. “Dan kemudian akan mungkin kita harus meningkatkan bantuan yang diberikan kepada negara zona euro lainnya,” katanya. Barroso menekankan tidak akan ada alternatif untuk “penghematan yang sangat besar” yang diperlukan Yunani sebagai syarat untuk menerima paket baru bantuan keuangan. “Tentu saja kita melihat bahwa program penghematan sepertinya membawa resesi, tetapi ini satu-satunya cara Yunani bisa mendapatkan kembali kemampuan bersaing,” katanya. “Bangkrut hanya akan meracuni suasana bagi investor. Dan kemudian tidak akan ada pertumbuhan, atau stimulus ekonomi,” menurut Barroso dalam kunjungan dua hari ke Wina.(ant/hrb) http://www.investor.co.id/international/yunani-keluar-dari-euro-akan-jadi-bencana/31336 (http://www.investor.co.id/international/yunani-keluar-dari-euro-akan-jadi-bencana/31336) Sumber : INVESTOR DAILY Inilah Daftar Pemegang Surat Utang AS Terbesar Oleh: Charles MS Pasar Modal – Rabu, 1 Februari 2012 | 14:28 WIB INILAH.COM, Jakarta – Akibat belanja sangat besar pemerintah AS yang belum pernah terjadi sebelumnya untuk memperbaiki perekonomian, ada kebutuhan yang sama besar untuk mengumpulkan uang guna membayarnya. Hal ini dilakukan melalui pinjaman, di mana negeri Paman Sam ini menjual surat utang dalam bentuk yang bervariasi. Untuk investor, tagihan pemerintah berupa notes dan bond dianggap aman karena mereka memiliki tingkat yang dijamin kembali, berdasarkan keyakinan dalam pendapatan pajak AS di masa mendatang. Pemerintah memiliki sebagian dana operasi melalui obligasi selama beberapa dekade. Pinjaman ini menambah utang nasional, yang baru-baru ini telah melampaui US$15 triliun dan meningkat setiap detik. Jumlah utang cepat mendekati batas atas utang federal, batas hukum pinjaman yang saat ini di kisaran US$16,4 triliun. Banyak surat utang yang dipegang oleh sektor swasta, tetapi sekitar 40% dipegang oleh entitas publik, termasuk bagian-bagian dari pemerintah. Adapun negara-negara asing yang terdaftar dalam investor swasta dan publik, menurut data bulanan Kementerian Keuangan AS berdasarkan hasil survei CNBC adalah: 1. Swiss AS yang memegang surat utang AS sebesar US$113,9 miliar Kepemilikan Swiss atas surat utang AS mencapai tertinggi di US$147,5 miliar atau sekitar 28% PDB negara pada Agustus 2011, tapi telah turun dalam beberapa bulan menjadi US$113,9 miliar. Kepemilikan Swiss atas surat utang AS ini pun telah mengalahkan Hong Kong, Rusia dan Kanada dalam beberapa tahun terakhir. 2. Taiwan yang memiliki surat utang AS sebesar US$149,6 miliar Kepemilikan Taiwan atas surat utang AS relatif stabil selama setahun terakhir, tapi dalam dua tahun terakhir ini mengalahkan Rusia dan Hong Kong dalam total kepemilikan. Sampai saat ini, Taiwan memegang US$149,6 miliar di Treasury securities AS, dibandingkan dengan Rusia US$89,7 miliar. Kepemilikan Rusia telah dengan cepat menyusut akibat diversifikasi negara ini. 3. Caribbean Banking Centers yang memiliki surat utang AS sebesar US$185,3 miliar Treasury AS mengidentifikasi grup ini sebagai lembaga di Bahama, Bermuda, Kepulauan Cayman, Antillen Belanda, Panama, dan Kepulauan Virgin Britania Raya saat ini memegang US$185,3 miliar surat utang AS, naik dari US$106,6 miliar pada Juni 2008, tetapi tetap dari grup tertinggi dari US$213,6 miliar pada Maret 2009. 4. Brasil yang memiliki surat utang AS sebesar US$206,4 miliar Raksasa ekonomi di Amerika Selatan ini memiliki surat utang sebesar US$206,4 miliar, menurut data departemen keuangan. Investasi Brasil di surat utang AS telah berfluktuasi sedikit dalam dua tahun, dengan koleksi saat ini di bawah level tertinggi dari $211,4 miliar pada Mei 2011. 5. Oil Exporters yang memiliki surat utang AS sebesar US$232 miliar Industri minyak besar berarti uang besar… dan investasi besar ke surat utang AS termasuk dalam kelompok eksportir minyak seperti Ekuador, Venezuela, Indonesia, Bahrain, Iran, Irak, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Arab Saudi, Uni Emirat Arab, Aljazair, Gabon, Libya dan Nigeria. Grup ini memegang total US$232 miliar di surat utang AS, di kisaran US$204 miliar hingga US$236 miliar yang telah dipelihara selama tahun yang lalu. 6. Perusahaan asuransi yang memiliki surat utang AS sebesar US$250,1 miliar Menurut Dewan Gubernur Federal Reserve, perusahaan asuransi memegang US$250,1 miliar di Treasury securities AS. Kelompok ini mencakup perusahaan-perusahaan asuransi propertikecelakaan dan asuransi jiwa. 7. Depository Institutions yang memiliki surat utang AS sebesar US$284,5 miliar Dari Juni 2011, Dewan Gubernur Federal Reserve mencatat depository institutions memegang sekitar US$284,5 miliar di surat utang AS. Kelompok ini termasuk bank komersial, bank tabungan dan credit unions. Pada tahun 2011, kepemilikan lebih dari tiga kali lipat dari 2008 sebesar US$105 miliar. Dari Juni dan September 2011, kepemilikan surat utang AS depository institutions turun hampir US$44 miliar. 8. Inggris yang memiliki surat utang AS sebesar US$429,4 miliar Inggris saat ini memegang 429,4 miliar di surat utang AS, tetapi investasi negara telah meningkat secara dramatis selama dua tahun. Sekarang di semua level tertinggi (dan cepat), Inggris memiliki utang terendah pada Juni 2008 sebesar US$55 miliar. 9. Negara bagian dan pemerintah daerah AS yang memiliki surat utang sebesar US$484,4 miliar Negara bagian AS dan pemerintah daerah telah hampir memiliki setengah-triliun dolar yang diinvestasikan di surat utang AS, menurut Federal Reserve. Tingkat investasi tetap stabil sejak 2006, bergeser ke kisaran US$484 miliar dan US$576 miliar. Koleksi utang saat ini, mewakili tingkat agregat terendah untuk negara dan pemerintah daerah sejak Desember 2005, ketika mereka memegang US$481,4 miliar. 10. Perusahaan Reksa Dana yang memiliki surat utang AS sebesar US$653,5 miliar Menurut Federal Reserve, reksa dana memegang jumlah terbesar keenam surat utang AS dibandingkan dengan kelompok lain, meskipun kepemilikan reksa dana telah berkurang sebesar lebih dari US$105 miliar sejak Desember 2008. Termasuk dana pasar uang, reksadana dan reksadana closed-end, kelompok ini menginvestasikan sekitar US$653,5 miliar di Treasury securities AS pada Juni 2011. 11. Dana Pensiun yang memegang surat utang AS sebesar US$842,2 miliar Dana pensiun yang mengendalikan sejumlah besar uang, disediakan untuk pensiun pribadi, dan dengan demikian berkewajiban untuk melakukan investasi yang relatif aman. Kelompok ini, yang mencakup dana pensiun swasta dan lokal pemerintah, memegang US$842,2 miliar di surat utang AS. Kategori dana pensiun swasta juga termasuk Treasury securities AS yang dipegang oleh Federal Employees Retirement System Thrift Savings Plan G Fund. 12. Jepang yang memegang surat utang AS sebesar US$$1,038 triliun Satu dari mitra dagang AS terbesar, Jepang juga merupakan salah satu pemegang surat utang AS terbesar, yang saat ini memiliki US$1,038 triliun di Treasury Security. 13. Investor Lain/tabungan obligasi yang memegang surat utang AS sebesar US$1,107 triliun Dengan memegang surat utang terbesar pada Juni 2011, kelompok yang sangat beragam ini termasuk individu, perusahaan-perusahaan yang disponsori pemerintah, broker dan dealer, bank personal trust, perkebunan, tabungan obligasi, perusahaan dan noncorporate businesses memiliki total US$1,107 triliun. Meskipun tingkat utang yang dimiliki savings bonds tetap konstan pada dasarnya sejak tahun 2000, kategori luas investor ‘lainnya’ telah hampir empat kali lipat sejak mencapai terendah empat tahun pada Desember 2007. 14. China yang memegang surat utang AS sebesar US$1,132 triliun Asing terbesar pemegang sekuritas treasury AS, China saat ini telah mencapai US$1,132 triliun di surat utang AS, meskipun turun dari US$1,173 triliun pada Juli 2011. 15. Federal Reserve dan Intragovernmental Holdings yang memegang US$6,328 triliun surat utang AS Pemegang tunggal terbesar dari utang pemerintah AS adalah Federal Reserve system. Sistem Fed bank dan intragovernmental holdings AS lainnya diperhitungkan memegang US$6,328 triliun pada utang Treasury AS paga September 2011. Jumlah ini adalah angka tertingginya akibat Federal Reserve terus meningkatkan neraca, sebagian untuk membeli surat utang pemerintah AS. Sekitar satu dekade yang lalu, kepemilikan pemerintah hanya US$2,5 triliun. China Targets 7.5% Growth in 2012 as Euro Crisis Slows Exports By Bloomberg News – Mar 5, 2012 6:56 AM GMT+0700 China’s government will target economic growth of 7.5 percent this year, the lowest goal since 2004, suggesting leaders will tolerate slower expansion while they try to reduce the nation’s reliance on exports. Officials also set an inflation target of 4 percent, unchanged from last year’s goal, according to a state-of-the- nation speech that Premier Wen Jiabao will read to about 3,000 lawmakers at the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress in Beijing today. Enlarge image Wen Jiabao, China’s premier. Photographer: Michele Tantussi/Bloomberg

Play Video March 5 (Bloomberg) — China’s government will target economic growth of 7.5 percent this year, the lowest goal since 2004, suggesting leaders will tolerate slower expansion while they try to reduce the nation’s reliance on exports. Officials also set an inflation target of 4 percent, unchanged from last year’s goal, according to a state-of-the-nation speech that Premier Wen Jiabao will read to about 3,000 lawmakers at the annual meeting of the National People’s Congress in Beijing today. Susan Li and Margaret Conley report on Bloomberg Television’s “First Up.” (Source: Bloomberg) Enlarge image Officials also set an inflation target of 4 percent, unchanged from last year’s goal. Photographer: Adam Dean/Bloomberg By cutting the 8 percent goal maintained from 2005 to 2011, Wen, 69, is signaling the ruling Communist Party is determined to shift the makeup of growth toward consumption and away from from exports and investment. Wen and fellow officials are also preparing to begin a once-in-a-decade handover of power later this year to a new set of leaders. A lower target “would reduce the likelihood of a large- scale stimulus package, as authorities show that they understand that potential growth is declining,” Zhang Zhiwei, chief China economist at Nomura Holdings Plc in Hong Kong, said in a March 2 research note. “In the long run, it would help to reduce macro risks in China and make growth more sustainable.” Fiscal, Monetary Policy Wen reiterated that the government will maintain a “proactive” fiscal policy and a “prudent” monetary policy. The government in February lowered banks’ reserve requirements for the second time in three months to boost lending and sustain growth, following five interest-rate increases from October 2010 to July 2011 aimed at slowing inflation. The government plans a budget deficit of 800 billion yuan ($127 billion), or 1.5 percent of gross domestic product, Wen said. That compares with last year’s target of 900 billion yuan, or 2 percent of GDP, and the actual deficit of 519 billion yuan, or 1.1 percent of GDP. The remarks, also known as the annual work report, were distributed to media and delegates ahead of Wen’s talk scheduled for about 9 a.m. local time. The growth target matched the median forecast of 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News last month. Seven analysts predicted a goal of 7.5 percent while six said it would be 8 percent; one projected 7 percent and another 8.5 percent. Twelve of 15 economists forecast a 4 percent inflation goal, while the median estimate of 13 respondents was for a budget deficit of 1 trillion yuan. GDP Target Zhang said a 7.5 percent GDP target is consistent with his own growth forecast of 7.9 percent. “The growth target should be interpreted as the lower bound of acceptable growth, with actual GDP growth having persistently overshot” the 8 percent target of recent years, he said in the note. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP), while up 12 percent in 2012, has declined 16 percent from a year ago as China’s growth decelerated to the slowest since the second quarter of 2009. The yuan has strengthened to 6.2984 against the dollar as of March 2 from 6.5724 12 months ago. The National People’s Congress, while often derided as a rubber-stamp parliament, counts some of China’s most powerful politicians and executives as its members. They wield power in their home provinces and weigh in on proposals such as levying a property tax, privatizing state-owned enterprises and changing how China manages its currency. Growth Contributor China was the largest contributor to global GDP growth in 2010 as it surpassed Japan to become the world’s second-largest economy, after an average annual expansion of 10 percent for three decades lifted more than 600 million people out of poverty, according to the World Bank. The nation’s urban population last year surpassed that of rural areas for the first time. The annual economic-growth targets have been routinely surpassed and are more indicative of the direction of policy. Even so, gross domestic product expanded 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, the least since the second quarter of 2009. For the full year, growth was 9.2 percent after 2010’s 10.4 percent, compared with the 8 percent goal. China’s consumer prices rose 5.4 percent last year, exceeding the 2011 official annual target of 4 percent while easing from July’s peak of 6.5 percent. Leaders are trying to ensure the expansion slows to no less than an average pace of 7 percent for the five years through 2015. Wen said last year that the emphasis would be on ensuring the “quality and benefits” of growth. Income Gap At the same time, heightened pollution, a widening income gap and an aging population along with an under-developed social-security system are testing Communist Party leaders’ plans to shift to a more-balanced growth model. On top of that, risks of a deeper slowdown may be rising as Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis is pushing the continent into recession, curbing China’s exports, while the country maintains rules that have ended a surge in home prices. Fifty-nine percent of global investors polled by Bloomberg in September said China’s economy will expand less than 5 percent annually by 2016. Foreign companies are still looking to the country for growth. Yum! Brands Inc. (YUM), owner of the KFC and Taco Bell fast- food chains, said fourth-quarter profit gained 30 percent as it opened a record 656 stores last year in China. China’s exports fell 0.5 percent in January, the first drop in more than two years, as a sluggish global economy hurt demand and the weeklong Chinese New Year holiday disrupted trade. Sales to the European Union rose 14 percent in 2011 after a 32 percent gain in 2010, according to data from China’s customs administration. Home Prices February’s home prices in China posted the biggest decline in 19 months, according to SouFun Holdings Ltd. Heightened pressures from provincial and city governments may lead to a relaxation on home-buying curbs by the end of this month or early in the second quarter, Helen Qiao, Morgan Stanley’s chief economist for Greater China, said Feb. 27. The financing arms set up by provincial and city governments accumulated 10.7 trillion yuan of debt by the end of 2010, with 70 percent of the borrowings due by 2015, raising concern that some of the bank assets may deteriorate. Wen pledged last year to clean up surging debt by local governments after an audit office investigation found they had amassed 10.7 trillion yuan of debt by the end of 2010. Leaders in Beijing “will be keeping a very close eye on events in Europe” as well as China’s real estate slowdown and trade sentiment in the U.S., Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking University, said before today’s speech. “The biggest problems are the extremely low consumption share of GDP and the surging debt needed to keep GDP growth high.” –Victoria Ruan, Zhang Dingmin, Henry Sanderson. Editors: Scott Lanman, Paul Panckhurst. Eropa percepat penyediaan modal untuk bailout Oleh Melati Amaya Dori, Bloomberg – Jumat, 02 Maret 2012 | 11:32 WIB KONTAN BRUSSELS. Pimpinan Eropa menyetujui untuk mempercepat penyediaan modal sebagai dana permanen bailout di kawasan tersebut. Langkah ini dilakukan menyusul tekanan internasional untuk memperkuat perekonomian Eropa terhadap krisis utang. Dikabarkan, para pimpinan Eropa akan menggelontorkan dana tahap pertama dari dua tahap yang direncanakan ke badan dana bernilai 500 miliar euro atau US$ 666 miliar. Mereka juga menargetkan bisa menyelesaikan masalah permodalan ini pada tahun 2015, lebih cepat setahun dari jadwal yang ditetapkan. “Akan ada percepatan. Bisa dimulai dengan penyuntikan modal tahap pertama dari dua tahap di 2012. Namun, kita belum mengambil keputusan yang pasti,” jelas Presiden Uni Eropa Herman Van Rompuy. Kanselir Jerman Angela Merkel pada bulan ini memang memutuskan untuk mempercepat jadwal pelaksanaan penyuntikan dana bailout Eropa. Sebab, sebagai salah satu pemimpin kawasan benua biru, Merkel dituntut oleh pimpinan dunia dan Badan Moneter Internasional untuk melakukan aksi yang lebih berani dalam penanganan krisis. Pada saat yang bersamaan, Merkel juga menekan Uni Eropa untuk menunda diskusi mengenai masalah peningkatan plafon dana penyelamatan. Sementara itu, Menteri Keuangan dari Group 20 (G-20) menegaskan pada bulan lalu bahwa mereka tidak akan menambah dana ke badan dana anti krisis IMF hingga 17 negara Eropa melakukan sesuatu untuk membantu dirinya sendiri. Catatan saja, ke depannya, Eropa berencana membangun badan dana permanen yang dikenal dengan sebutan European Stability Mechanism. Nilai dana tunainya mencapai 80 miliar euro dengan cadangan dana darurat senilai 620 miliar euro. Secara total, dana yang bisa digelontorkan mencapai 500 miliar euro. ATHENS, Feb 28, 2012 (AFP) Greece’s parliament late Tuesday approved a new wave of budget cuts designed to clinch a eurozone bailout to save the country from a disorderly default next month, an official vote count showed. Deputies for the coalition socialist and conservative parties secured passage of further spending cuts worth 3.2 billion euros ($4.3 billion), the official count broadcast on the state parliament channel showed. A majority of over 202 lawmakers among 283 in attendance supported the relevant legislation in its entirety, with 80 votes against and one abstention, acting parliament speaker Grigoris Niotis told the chamber. “The bill has been approved by article and in its entirety by a majority,” Niotis said. The new cutbacks are a condition for a eurozone bailout of 130 billion euros in direct aid combined with a 107-billion-euro debt writedown by private creditors, designed to save Greece from a disorderly default next month. Athens must repay a three-year bond worth nearly 15 billion euros on March 20, which it cannot do without financial assistance. The socialist PASOK and conservative New Democracy parties that form the government coalition of Prime Minister Lucas Papademos have 193 deputies in the 300-seat parliament. New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras had earlier urged the assembly to approve the new cuts to “close a miserable chapter” in the country’s history. Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos meanwhile noted that the measures had to be approved before a Eurogroup meeting of finance ministers on Thursday. Papademos did not attend the vote, his office said, having earlier flown to Brussels for a meeting with European Commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso on Wednesday and the Eurogroup on Thursday, which is to discuss Greece’s measures. Another bill entailing cuts in medicine and hospital spending that is also linked to the eurozone rescue will be taken up on Wednesday. The latest Greek belt-tightening measures, coming on the heels of over two years of austerity, have sparked street protests and sporadic violence in Athens and other cities. Greek unions will stage a three-hour stoppage and an evening demonstration on Wednesday, part of a Europe-wide action day against austerity measures adopted to fight the eurozone debt crisis. The parliamentary procedure came after ratings agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) declared Greece in “selective default” owing to a proposed debt swap with private banks, a move that forced the European Central Bank to suspend Greek bonds as acceptable collateral for ECB loans. Rolling back the years Feb 23rd 2012, 14:35 by The Economist online America has lost almost a decade of progress to the financial crisis TALK of a Japanese style “lost decade” has abounded ever since the financial crisis took hold in 2008. The Economist has crunched the numbers and on the basis of seven indicators covering economic output, wealth and labour markets, the United States has already gone back in time some ten years. Its GDP per person, for example, was at a higher level than today back in 2005 and its main stockmarket index was higher in 1999. Of the countries considered, Greece has fared the worst. In economic terms, it is just entering the new millennium again. As a whole the rich world has been hardest hit by the financial crisis. Just six of the 34 “advanced” economies categorised by the IMF have GDP per person higher in 2011 than in 2007. Notable among them are Germany and Australia.

Greece sets stage for Friday bond swap By George Georgiopoulos and Lefteris Papadimas ATHENS | Thu Feb 23, 2012 5:34pm EST (Reuters) – Greece took its first step towards reaping urgently needed funds agreed in a 130-billion-euro rescue package on Thursday as its parliament endorsed a bond swap for private holders of its debt. The swap, in which investors trade bonds for lower-value debt, is to be launched on Friday with the aim of slicing 100 billion euros off liabilities worth 160 percent of national output that have brought the country to the brink of a chaotic bankruptcy. “By approving this law, parliament will allow us to start getting out of the vortex,” Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told lawmakers earlier. “To succeed, we need to be united, serious, trustworthy, persistent and to work, work, work,” he added before the debt swap law was passed thanks to the majority held by his Socialist PASOK party and their New Democracy coalition partners. Greece’s second bailout since 2010 was sealed by euro zone finance ministers on Tuesday, averting the threat of a chaotic default next month but doing little to allay doubts about the country’s long-term financial and social stability. “The package is no guarantee that the problems in Greece will be solved,” Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager told his own parliament in a letter. “Greece will have to take extensive measures and show that it implements the necessary reforms,” said De Jager, who along with his German counterpart Wolfgang Schaeuble has led scepticism of Athens’ commitment to knock its public finances into shape. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi suggested the muted market response to Tuesday’s rescue deal suggested many doubted Athens would follow through on a promised austerity cure. “It’s hard to say if the crisis is over,” he warned. In Berlin, a senior official of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ruling Christian Democrats said lawmakers due to vote on the bailout on Monday would make it dependent on the International Monetary Fund taking part as planned. European and IMF sources have told Reuters the Fund could contribute 13 billion euros in new money on top of 9.9 billion still unpaid from the first bailout. The extent of the IMF contribution still has to be discussed by the board, Gerry Rice, the Fund’s director of external relations told a news conference in Washington. He too highlighted implementation risks. BAILOUT FOES GAIN The Greek government says the bond swap must be completed by March 12, before a March 20 deadline when 14.5 billion euros of debt repayments fall due. Doctors and health workers joined a wave of public anger over tough budget cuts demanded as the price for the bailout, launching a 24-hour strike over pay cuts. Hospitals were maintaining a minimum level of service. A 3-hour nationwide work stoppage is a planned for next Wednesday and left-wing parties opposed to the austerity package are gaining in opinion polls before elections likely in April. “Greece is the first colony of the euro zone,” said Alexis Tsipras, leader of the Left Coalition party, complaining that new arrangements under which foreign inspectors will monitor national finances was a humiliating loss of sovereignty. Government ministers maintain the only alternative would be bankruptcy and ejection from the euro single currency zone. “There would be chaos,” Environment and Energy Minister George Papaconstantinou told weekly German newspaper Die Zeit. “There would be queues outside the banks and the army and the police would have to intervene. We would no longer be able to import oil, natural gas or medicines from abroad.” BUYING TIME Private investors holding about 200 billion euros of Greek bonds will take a loss of 53.5 percent in the face value of their holdings and a real loss of 73-74 percent. The legislation says investors get at least 10 days to consider the transaction and creates so-called “collective action clauses” (CACs), which force all bondholders to proceed with the swap once it has won a specified level of approval. According to the law, the swap will go ahead once 50 percent of bondholders have responded to the offer and the CACs will be activated once a two-thirds majority of that quorum has voted in favour of the swap. The austerity measures have helped to plunge Greece ever deeper into recession and driven unemployment up over 20 percent. Half of young Greeks are jobless. The bailout deal buys time to stabilise the 17-nation euro zone currency bloc and strengthen its financial protection against a Greek default, which is a long-term threat. The euro zone, and particularly northern members, are deeply sceptical that Greek leaders will stick to the painful spending cuts and reforms after the election. A new survey by pollster VPRC for the Epikera magazine on Thursday showed 76 percent of respondents believed Germany was on balance “rather hostile” to Greece, and 73 percent said they had a negative attitude towards Chancellor Angela Merkel. The telephone survey was taken from a sample of 805 people. Greece must adopt a series of laws in the coming days needed to implement some 3.3 billion euros of cuts to public sector spending and pensions. (Additional reporting by Dina Kyriakidou in Athens and Lesley Wroughton in Washington; Writing by Mark John; Editing by Paul Taylor) Greece passes crucial debt swap law Reuters Feb 23, 2012 – 9:55 AM ET ATHENS — Greek parliament passed on Thursday legislation to launch a debt swap for private bondholders which is at the core of the 130- billion-euro bailout agreed with eurozone partners this week. Under a common procedure of Greek parliament, acting parliament speaker Anastasios Kourakis said the law passed automatically without a vote because the incumbent government has a majority and no request for a named vote had been made. TOKYO – Jepang akan menyediakan bantuan dana sekira USD50 miliar untuk Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF), demi membantu memerangi krisis utang Eropa. Dikatakan salah satu pejabat Kementerian Keuangan Jepang, pihaknya akan mempelajari angka yang akan diberikan kepada IMF. Tetapi tidak menutup kemungkinan bagi pemerintah di Negeri Sakura ini untuk mencapai kesepakatan pada saat Menteri Keuangan akan menghadiri pertemuan G20 akhir pekan ini. Dilansir dari Straits Times, Kamis (23/2/2012), IMF bersama dengan Bank Sentral Eropa dan Uni Eropa akan membentuk “trioka” atau memberikan kontribusi untuk memberikan bailout, dikatakan pada Januari berusaha untuk meningkatkan kapasitas pinjaman hingga USD500 miliar untuk menghadapi krisis utang. Bos IMF Christine Lagarde dan beberapa stafnya telah melakukan pemungutan suara dari para pemimpin di G20 untuk melihat apakah mereka akan memberikan kontribusinya. Adapun baru Amerika Serikat (AS) saja yang telah mengatakan tidak berencana untuk memberikan bantuan atau menyediakan sejumlah uang tunai. http://economy.okezone.com/read/2012/02/23/213/581031/bantu-eropa-jepang-bakal-gelontori-imf-dana (http://economy.okezone.com/read/2012/02/23/213/581031/bantu-eropa-jepangbakal-gelontori-imf-dana) Sumber : OKEZONE.COM Fitch downgrades Greece on debt swap plan 4:58pm EST ATHENS (Reuters) – Fitch cut Greece’s long-term ratings on Wednesday to its lowest rating above a default, becoming the first ratings agency to make the widely expected downgrade after the country announced a bond exchange plan to ease its massive debt burden. It said Greece would be designated as having technically defaulted after the bond exchange is formalized, but the new bonds would be give and new rating. All three big ratings agencies — Fitch, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s — downgraded Greece in July when an initial debt swap plan was unveiled and have warned that losses for private creditors would trigger a temporary default. As expected, Fitch said it was downgrading Greece to “C” from “CCC,” and would follow up with further downgrade to a “restricted default” when the bond swap is completed. It will then reassess the country’s ratings when new bonds are issued as part of the debt exchange. “It would come out to a low, speculative grade rating,” Fitch analyst Paul Rawkins told Reuters on the ratings after the reassessment, noting that rating would factor in the country’s economic prospects and new debt profile. He added that the current process of downgrades was largely procedural, following the path laid out by the agency in June. Ratings, which give an estimate of the capacity of a creditor to repay its debt, usually serve as a guide to investors. Euro zone finance ministers agreed a 130-billion euro rescue plan for Greece on Tuesday to avert a messy default, including a bond swap to shave 100 billion euros off Greece’s debt burden. Bondholders will take losses of 53.5 percent on the nominal value of their Greek bonds as part of the swap, with actual losses put at around 74 percent in real terms. The European Central Bank fas agreed to a complex plan to ensure Greek bonds can still be used as collateral in its lending operations whilst in the process of being swapped. Greece will take a loan from the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) which will come in the form of EFSF bonds. Those bonds will passed to ECB and put into a special account incase there are any losses on collateral during the short window of the bond swap. (Reporting by Deepa Babington and Harry Papachristou. Editing by Jeremy Gaunt) Stocks Close Lower After Economic Reports By Stephen Kirkland and Rita Nazareth – Feb 23, 2012 4:10 AM GMT+0700 (Bloomberg) Stocks fell worldwide for a second day and U.S. Treasuries rose after reports on the European and Chinese economies spurred concern about growth. Gold jumped, and the yen fell to a seven-month low versus the dollar. The MSCI All-Country World Index (MXWD) of equities retreated 0.4 percent to 329.17 at 4:08 p.m. New York time. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index decreased 0.3 percent to 1,357.66. Yields on 10-year U.S. Treasuries declined six basis points to 2 percent. Gold futures climbed to $1,783.40, the highest price since Nov. 16. The yen weakened to 80.40 per dollar. European services and manufacturing output shrank in February, according to Markit Economics, while another report showed Chinese manufacturing may shrink a fourth straight month in February. The S&P 500 slumped after rallies in six out of the past seven weeks put it within 0.1 percent yesterday of 1,363.61, its highest closing level since 2008. “We have a trifecta of worrisome news,” Alan Gayle, a senior strategist at RidgeWorth Capital Management in Richmond, Virginia, which oversees about $47 billion, said in a telephone interview. “The softness in economic data suggests that global momentum remains muted. We have slower earnings growth and the market is facing some technical resistance.” Dell Inc. (DELL) retreated 5.8 percent. Its first-quarter sales forecast missed analysts’ estimates, dragged down by lackluster personal-computer demand from consumers and governments. Homebuilders Drop KB Home and Toll Brothers Inc. slumped at least 4.1 percent in U.S. stock trading. The National Association of Realtors said sales of previously owned houses reached a 4.57 million annual pace in January, missing the median economist projection of 4.66 million in a Bloomberg News survey. The December figure was cut to 4.38 million from 4.61 million. Futures traders are pricing in the biggest increase in U.S. equity hedging costs since 2010 after the S&P 500 rose within 2 points of erasing last year’s slump. April futures on the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index settled at 25.15 yesterday, or 6.96 points higher than the level of the gauge. The gap widened to 7.02 points on Feb. 17. The last time two- month futures were that high in relation to the index known as the VIX was July 2010. Energy companies helped limit the S&P 500’s loss today. Nabors Industries Ltd. (NBR) rallied 7 percent and Range Resources Corp. gained 2.9 percent after they reported higher-thanestimated profit. The S&P 500 Energy Index rose 0.2 percent. Crude oil futures advanced to $106.28 a barrel, the highest settlement price since May 4. Treasury Auction Treasuries rose for the first time in four days after the U.S. sold $35 billion of five-year notes. They drew a yield of 0.900 percent, compared with a forecast of 0.901 percent in a Bloomberg News survey of seven of the Federal Reserve’s primary dealers. The bid-to-cover ratio, which gauges demand by comparing total bids with the amount of securities offered, was 2.89, compared with an average of 2.9 for the previous 10 sales. Leon Cooperman, founder of equity hedge fund Omega Advisors Inc., said buying U.S. Treasuries is the least attractive investment in a world of “financial repression.” Bonds will be the worst place for investors to put their money for the next three years, Cooperman said in an interview today on Bloomberg Television’s “InsideTrack” with Erik Schatzker.

The yen fell for a fifth day, the longest streak since April. It has weakened 3.7 percent since the Bank of Japan on Feb. 14 unexpectedly expanded its asset-purchase program. Norway’s krone rallied against all its major counterparts as investors pared bets the central bank would cut interest rates after unemployment unexpectedly declined. Merkel as Europe’s Debt Crisis Iron Lady Bucks German Street on Greek Aid By Tony Czuczka and Leon Mangasarian – Feb 20, 2012 3:03 PM GMT+0700 Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) — Chancellor Angela Merkel named Joachim Gauck, a pro-democracy activist from the former East Germany, as the unity candidate for the mainly ceremonial role of German president after the resignation of the incumbent amid corruption allegations. Owen Thomas and Linzie Janis report on Bloomberg Television’s “Countdown.” (Source: Bloomberg) Merkel a `Diminished’ Figure After Wulff Resigns Play Video Feb. 17 (Bloomberg) — Sony Kapoor, managing director at Re-Define, discusses the resignation of German President Christian Wulff and the political implications for Chancellor Angela Merkel. Kapoor, speaking from Brussels with Maryam Nemazee on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse,” also talks about the French presidential elections and the proposed financialtransactions tax. (Source: Bloomberg) Enlarge image Angela Merkel German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Tel Aviv, Israel. Photographer: Uriel Sinai/Getty images Enlarge image Angela Merkel German Chancellor Angela Merkel following talks with Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy in Berlin, on Jan. 26. Photographer: Sean Gallup/Getty Images Enlarge image Angela Merkel German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Feb. 17, 2012 in Berlin. Photographer: Andreas Rentz/Getty Images Angela Merkel is having a Margaret Thatcher moment. Having spent six years in office defying comparison with Britain’s first woman prime minister, Merkel is being likened to Thatcher as she steers Europe’s response to the financial crisis with demands for debt reduction and tighter economic controls. Media including the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, the newspaper of record in Germany’s financial hub, dub her “Europe’s Iron Lady.” Strengthened by record-low joblessness at home, Merkel has rejected calls to either cut Greece loose from the euro area or ease her conditions for aid. By bucking the German street and steering the middle course, she is gambling that policy makers will continue to prevent a euro meltdown, helping her win re- election next year and match Thatcher’s third term.

“If Merkel were to go into elections with a collapsed euro zone she’d have a lot of difficulty winning,” Giles Merritt, head of Friends of Europe, a Brussels-based research group that promotes debate on the European Union, said in an interview. “Finally her statesman side is kicking in.” Merkel may be homing in on her platform for the election next fall: enforcing the budget discipline that Germans want, while fending off the breakup of the euro area as too risky to contemplate for a country that has staked its post-World War II role in Europe on promoting consensus. She has quashed an anti- euro groundswell in her coalition, saying the solution is “more, not less, Europe.” ‘Doesn’t Arise’ “I don’t want Greece to leave the euro, and therefore the question doesn’t arise,” Merkel, 57, told a student audience in Berlin on Feb. 7. The costs of a crack in the euro region are “incalculable,” she said. The balancing act is paying off. Even as Germany bankrolls bailouts from Athens to Dublin, the yield on the country’s 10- year government bond on Jan. 13 dropped to a two-month low of 1.74 percent, after reaching an all-time euro-era low of 1.67 percent on Sept. 22. Merkel’s poll ratings have risen since December to the highest of her second term as she prodded French President Nicolas Sarkozy to forge a united front favoring spending rigor across the euro area and expanding the defense against crisis contagion. Twenty-five of the EU’s 27 states have signed up to her plan. “She realizes that only with sticks, the European project is not going to move forward,” Henrik Enderlein, a political economist at the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin, said by phone. “She also needs carrots. And the carrot is that Germany is a pro-European country that wants to build something with the other countries in a concerted fashion.” ‘Leading With Others’ As Greeks chafe at a perceived German diktat, Merkel wants to signal that “it’s not Germany leading the others, it’s Germany leading with others,” Enderlein said. “This is the message she wants to convey to her European partners.” That means Merkel is facing down calls for dumping Greece by business leaders such as Commerzbank AG supervisory board chairman Klaus-Peter Mueller, who said Jan. 30 that Greece should be freed of its “shackles” of the single currency. Franz Fehrenbach, chief executive officer of German auto-parts supplier Robert Bosch GmbH, told Manager Magazin on Feb. 14 that Greece should be ousted if it doesn’t quit voluntarily. The chancellor’s unyielding stance is prompting the comparisons with Thatcher, who famously dismissed criticism of her budget cutting 18 months into her premiership, telling members of her Conservative Party in 1980 that “the lady’s not for turning.” ‘Tough as Nails’ “Thatcher and Merkel are both tough as nails,” Gary Smith, executive director of the American Academy in Berlin, a trans-Atlantic research institute, said in an interview. Both conveyed that “they’re resolute and not flip-floppers.” Like Thatcher, who took on the miners as she sought to clamp down on Britain’s trade unions, Merkel hasn’t shied from confrontation. Unlike Thatcher, she appeals to Germans because she’s “cautious, modest and discreet,” Smith said. “With Merkel at the helm, things are calm and Germany is doing well on a global scale.” What’s more, the two leaders’ respective attitudes to Europe couldn’t be farther apart. Almost a quarter of a century after Thatcher used a speech in the Belgian city of Bruges to warn against a “European super-state exercising a new dominance from Brussels,” Merkel is pressing for economic and political union. That drive has sidelined the U.K. as Conservative Prime Minister David Cameron refuses to join the German-inspired European budget-discipline pact. Kohl Protégée Merkel, 57, a protégée of former Chancellor Helmut Kohl who grew up in communist East Germany, didn’t come naturally to building a united Europe, the goal of German leaders since the aftermath of World War II. At a Christian Democratic party rally last year, Merkel accused Spaniards and Portuguese of working too little.

Kohl, who reunited East and West Germany in 1990 against Thatcher’s wishes, warned in a journal article in September that Germany can’t afford to disconnect its future from Europe’s. Last July, Merkel lost her train of thought when a reporter asked her about her passion for Europe. “What was the question? Oh right, that passion,” she said. Now, Merkel rebuffs national caricatures that pit industrious against lazy Europeans and presents austerity as the best hope of competing in the global economy for EU’s 500 million people. ‘Lazy Germans’ “There are lazy Germans and there are hard-working Germans,” Merkel said in a Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper interview posted on her party’s website Jan. 26. “We can bury the old stereotypes.” Ten-year bond spreads with Italy and France have declined from the euro-era highs reached in November as Merkel has won support for her fiscal pact also championed by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi — while not standing in the way of ECB bond buying. Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union party is benefiting from German economic data including the lowest jobless rate in two decades and business confidence at a five-year high. A Feb. 2 poll for ARD television showed Merkel’s personal popularity at 64 percent, the highest since 2009. The same poll showed 70 percent against offering more financial guarantees for Greece. Backing for Merkel’s CDU held at 38 percent, the highest since before her reelection in September 2009, a separate weekly Forsa poll showed Feb. 15. The opposition Social Democrats dropped one percentage point to 26 percent. State Vote Defeats Shielding Germans from the turmoil has helped reverse Merkel’s fortunes after public anger at bailouts for Greece, Ireland and Portugal sent support for her bloc as low as 29 percent in the fall of 2010. Last year, her national coalition was defeated or lost votes in all seven German state elections. “The Germans aren’t against the EU, but they do fear for their money,” Ulrich Deupmann, a partner at management adviser Brunswick Group Inc. in Berlin, said in an interview. “That’s why Merkel’s hard line on Greece is popular with voters.” Markets are going Merkel’s way for now, easing political pressure. Even so, she can’t bank on an end to the turmoil and the next state election looms on March 25 in Saarland, where a Christian Democrat-led government collapsed on Jan. 6. With Greece’s ability to shoulder its austerity in a fifth year of recession unresolved and Portugal’s debt sustainability in doubt, any resurgence of the crisis would probably revive calls for joint euro-area bonds and a bigger firewall, putting Merkel on the defensive. Oscar Winner “It’s a risky strategy,” Enderlein said. “Now that the crisis is calming down she can say more Europe is needed, as long as this Europe picks up the German ‘stability culture.’ If this works, it will be extremely successful.” While Merkel attempts to follow Thatcher and win a third term on the back her debt-crisis handling, Merkel the Movie may have to wait. Oscar-winning actress Meryl Streep, in Berlin on Feb. 14 to promote her role as Thatcher in “The Iron Lady” at the Berlinale festival, said she’s not tempted to play Merkel. All the same, “seen from a distance, she’s an extremely strong woman,” Streep told Die Welt newspaper in an interview. Hong Kong, Feb 21, 2012 (AFP) The euro jumped against the US dollar in Asian trade Tuesday after eurozone finance ministers approved a second bailout for crisis-ridden Greece, although regional shares were broadly lower. The single currency powered up more than one US cent within minutes of the deal being announced in Brussels, going from $1.3185 to $1.3291. It also rose to 105.75 yen after the deal, from 105.43 yen in earlier trade. After marathon talks that ran into the early hours of Tuesday European time a source said: “We have the essentials of the deal.” Officials had been holding crunch talks over providing a bailout worth 130 billion euros to Athens, while discussions were also being held with Greece’s private-sector bondholders to write down 100 billion euros worth of debt. Sources earlier said the banks were preparing to increase their write-down by several percentage points from the 50-percent “haircut” initially agreed in October. In total the deal will bring Greek government down to 120.5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2020, a eurozone governmental source told AFP. The figure is just a fraction above the 120-percent target set by the European Union and International Monetary Fund. In exchange there will be strict surveillance of the Athens government over coming years, with full delivery and IMF help contingent on Greece enacting deeply unpopular spending cuts and reforms. Eurozone hardliners’ patience with Athens almost snapped over recent weeks with growing suggestions it could be cut adrift. Many euro partners see Greece as the victim of decades of chronic financial mismanagement by dynastic political forces — what Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti last week called a “perfect catalogue” of errors. “The announcement sparked euro buying,” said Tsunemasa Tsukada, chief manager at the currency sales department at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking in Tokyo. The single currency had changed hands for $1.3237 and 105.36 yen in London late Monday, and had fallen in early Asian trade as dealers awaited news from Brussels. New York markets were closed Monday for a public holiday. But Asian shares were generally lower despite the deal, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index off 0.44 percent or 94.92 points at 21,329.87. Shanghai was down 0.37 percent or 8.86 points at 2,354.74, and Tokyo was flat at 9,481.41, down 0.04 percent or 3.68 points. Australian shares bucked the trend, with Sydney up 0.72 percent or 30.6 points at 4,286.7. Oil prices extended gains after the Greece deal, with New York’s main contract light sweet crude for delivery in March $1.78 higher at $105.02, and Brent North Sea crude for April delivery up eight cents to $120.13. “Obviously there’s a cheer in Europe over the news in Greece… but Iran is raining on their parade,” said Justin Harper, head of research at IG Markets in Singapore. “And there’s still a long way to go for Europe and Greece, so it’s not really time to celebrate yet.” Gold was at $1,734.70 at 0350 GMT, from $1,732.10 on Monday. Second Greek bailout in reach, funding gap narrows 6:07pm EST By Luke Baker and Jan Strupczewski BRUSSELS (Reuters) – Euro zone finance ministers inched towards approving a second bailout for debt-laden Greece on Monday that would resolve Athens’ immediate repayment needs but seems unlikely to revive the nation’s shattered economy. Agreement on a 130-billion-euro rescue package with strict conditions would draw a line under months of uncertainty that has shaken the currency bloc, and avert an imminent bankruptcy. After seven hours of talks, senior officials said ministers had found ways to cut Greece’s debt to between 123 and 124 percent of gross domestic product by 2020, but were pressing for more. Negotiators for private bondholders had offered to accept a bigger loss to help plug the funding gap. A report prepared for ministers by EU, European Central Bank and IMF experts, obtained exclusively by Reuters, said Greece would need extra relief to cut its debts to the official target of 120 percent of GDP by 2020. If Athens did not follow through on economic reforms and savings, its debt could hit 160 percent by that date. “Given the risks, the Greek program may thus remain accident-prone, with questions about sustainability hanging over it,” the 9-page confidential report said. The euro zone sources said national central banks could restructure Greek bonds held in their investment portfolios in the same way as private investors, cutting Athens’ debt by another 3.5 percentage points. If the ECB were to forego profits on its Greek holdings, that would raise another 5.5 percentage points of GDP, the report showed. However, the sources said some euro zone countries were reluctant to pursue this option. Diplomats and economists say a deal may only delay a deeper default by a few months. A turnaround could take as much as a decade, a bleak prospect that brought thousands of Greeks onto the streets to protest against austerity measures on Sunday. EU sources said the minister needed to agree new measures to find some 6 billion euros to make the financing work, given the ever-worsening state of the Greek economy. An accord will enable Greece to launch a bond swap with private investors to help reduce and restructure Athens’ vast debts, put it on a more stable financial footing and keep it inside the 17country euro zone. A senior euro zone source said the finance ministers were negotiating for private sector creditors to take a loss of at least 53.5 percent on the nominal value of Greek bonds under the debt swap, up from a previously agreed 50 percent loss. Earlier in the day, French Finance Minister Francois Baroin said all the elements were in place to reach an agreement and Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said he expected a deal. “We expect today the long period of uncertainty – which was in the interest of neither the Greek economy nor the euro zone as a whole – to end,” Venizelos said in a statement. Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager, the most outspoken of Greece’s creditors, said the Netherlands could not approve the rescue package until Greece had met all its obligations. But the chairman of the Eurogroup, Jean-Claude Juncker, said Athens had met all the prior conditions demanded of it. Finland, another stern creditor, signed a side-deal with Greece for Greek banks to provide collateral in cash and highly rated assets in return for Finnish loan guarantees, removing one longrunning obstacle. DOUBTS OVER COMMITMENT Skeptics question whether a new Greek government will stick to the deeply unpopular program after elections due in April, and believe Athens could again fall behind in implementation, prompting exasperated lenders to pull the plug once the euro zone has stronger financial firewalls in place. Several thousand Greeks demonstrated on Sunday against the austerity measures to reduce the country’s debt, although the numbers were much lower than protests a week earlier which saw building in Athens torched and looted. While there are doubts in Germany and other countries that Greece will be able to meet its commitments, including implementing 3.3 billion euros of spending cuts and tax increases, officials said they were closing in on a deal. Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde and ECB President Mario Draghi were all attending the Brussels talks in a sign they were likely to be decisive. European shares hit a seven-month high and the euro rose on Monday as expectations of an agreement boosted investor appetite for riskier assets. Under one crucial element of the deal, Greece will have around 100 billion euros of debt written off via a restructuring involving private-sector holders of Greek government bonds. Banks and insurers will swap bonds they hold for longer-dated securities that pay a lower coupon, resulting in a real 70 percent reduction in the value of the assets. The bond exchange is expected to launch on March 8 and complete three days later, Athens said on Saturday. That means a 14.5-billion-euro bond repayment due on March 20 would be restructured, allowing Greece to avoid default. The vast majority of the funds in the 130-billion-euro program will be used to finance the bond swap and ensure Greece’s banking system remains stable: 30 billion euros will go to “sweeteners” to get the private sector to sign up to the swap, 23 billion will go to recapitalize Greek banks. A further 35 billion will allow Greece to finance the buying back of the bonds, and 5.7 billion will go to paying off the interest accrued on the bonds being traded in. Those numbers could change during Monday night’s talks given the scramble to meet the overall objective of reducing Greece’s debts from 160 percent of GDP to around 120 by 2020. MEETING THE TARGET The debt sustainability report delivered to ministers last week showed that without further measures, Greek debt would only fall to 129 percent by 2020. The IMF has said if the ratio cannot be cut to near 120 percent, it may not be able to help finance the bailout. A number of measures, including restructuring the accrued interest portion, reducing the “sweeteners” and having euro zone central banks take part in the debt swap are being considered to move the figure closer to 120 percent. There are also discussions about marginally lowering the interest rate on 110 billion euros of bilateral loans already made to Greece in May 2010, the first package of support. The biggest difference would be made by involvement of the ECB and national euro zone central banks. A deal would provide immediate relief to Athens and financial markets but no one is pretending it will end Greece’s problems. Figures last week showed its economy shrank 7 percent yearon-year in the last quarter of 2011, much more than expected, with further cuts likely to make matters worse. The troika of European Commission, ECB and IMF, responsible for monitoring Greece’s reform progress, carries out quarterly reviews and could decide Athens is not meeting its commitments at any one of them. (Additional reporting by Julien Toyer, Annika Breidthardt, Robin Emmott in Brussels, Daniel Flynn in Paris, Terri Kinnunen in Helsinki,; writing by Mike Peacock and Paul Taylor.) Feb. 17, 2012, 3:46 p.m. EST Iceland’s debt comes in from the cold Commentary: Fitch rewards efforts to mend a broken economy By MarketWatch SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Iceland. The mere mention of this rocky island outpost used to send chills down the spine of over-leveraged nations worldwide. No more. What was once the poster child for economic excess has emerged a role model for countries struggling to save their bacon in the global bond market. Fitch Ratings on Friday raised its credit rating on Iceland to BBB- from BB+. The move marks the passage of Iceland’s debt from junk back to investment grade. At the same time, Fitch declared Iceland’s economic outlook stable, something that might have seemed unattainable three years ago. Iceland was the proverbial canary in the mine shaft, a tiny nation (population 313,000) of fishermen and sheepherders that had this crazy notion it could transform itself into a major hub of international finance. Reuters Smoke rises from the Grimsvotn volcano, under the Vatnajokull glacier in southeast Iceland May 21, 2011. After Iceland’s most active volcano erupted, a thick cloud of ash blocked out the daylight at towns and villages at the foot of the glacier where the volcano lies and covered cars and buildings. It worked, for a while, thanks to easy credit, lax oversight of its banks, clueless credit ratings and a collective abandonment of fundamental economic realities. Sound familiar? As the money flowed, Icelanders came to believe that maybe, just maybe, they could afford to live like London bankers. Soon they were convinced they could. And while the nation’s sparse gravel roads gave way to paved freeways ferrying a bunch of brand-new Land Rovers, old-timers wondered whether their young financial gurus were leading the nation into the dream realm of the Mountain King. Then they got their clocks cleaned. When global credit markets unraveled in 2008, Iceland’s three biggest commercial banks collapsed. Iceland’s debt rating plummeted to junk status. The value of its currency, the krona , fell sharply and a severe economic recession set in. But it’s a testament to the Icelanders that they quickly recognized they’d built a house of cards and took drastic action to recover that involved, among other things, nationalizing one bank and handing control of all three major banks to the equivalent of a board of creditors. The tough lessons of the past decade’s excesses galvanized Icelanders. They got to work slashing public spending to bring it closer in line with their GDP, salvaged their tattered currency and, last summer, successfully exited a rescue program set up by the International Monetary Fund. Consequently, Iceland once again has access to international credit markets. Land Rover sales are no doubt down and Reykjavik’s red-hot night life has probably cooled a bit. But there were never riots in the streets and they never blamed their neighbors for their predicament. The fact that Icelanders don’t have neighbors might actually be key to their turnaround effort. After spending most of the past 1,000 years isolated from the rest of the world, the need for selfreliance and understanding that actions have consequences are nothing new to them. That’s probably a timely, and inspiring, lesson for the rest of us. — Jim Jelter The Komodo economy Workers’ protests dampen news of a ratings upgrade Feb 18th 2012 | JAKARTA | from the print edition Thick-skinned, buoyant and quick? IN THEIR presentations to foreign investors, Indonesian officials often like to begin with a montage of images from their fascinating country: the elegant mast of Jakarta’s Wisma 46 skyscraper, for example, and the vast ninth-century Borobudur monument. One presentation last year even featured a Komodo dragon peering out of the frame. As a symbol of Indonesia’s economic virtues, these enormous and venomous lizards, native to a couple of islands, are not obviously appealing. But they are apt. The Komodo is thickskinned, with scales resembling chain-mail, and surprisingly quick. That is a fair description of Indonesia’s resilient, resurgent economy. It grew by 6.5% in 2011, according to figures released this month, its fastest pace since the Asian financial crisis in 1997 (see chart). Ministers are already looking forward to Indonesia’s entry this year or next into the club of 14 countries with an annual GDP above $1 trillion. Its growth also appears armour-plated. The economy withstood the global crisis of 2008 better than most, and so far appears little troubled by the euro’s strife. That resilience reflects the buoyancy of its home market—exports accounted for only 26% of its GDP last year—and Indonesia’s efforts to wean itself off foreign borrowing. Net foreign debt is now less than 10% of GDP, and Fitch, a ratings agency, believes Indonesia’s government might become a net foreign creditor by the end of next year. That is one reason why the agency raised the country’s sovereign credit rating in December; Moody’s followed a month later. It has restored the cherished “investment-grade” status that Indonesia’s government lost during the Asian financial crisis. The establishment is thrilled. Government officials say all the good news should be a catalyst for greater foreign-direct investment, which reached a record $19.3 billion in 2011, up a fifth from the previous year. But there is danger in reading too much into a credit rating. Maybe the government will always pay up, but other kinds of investment will not necessarily pay off. Indeed, some of Indonesia’s fiscal austerities may have come at the expense of the economy as a whole. The government has often struggled to spend the money it has budgeted, even for worthwhile projects. In 2008-10 the central government spent less than three-quarters of the money it had allocated for public investment. Sometimes the only cash that seems to flow freely is for wasteful fuel subsidies. Part of the improvement in Indonesia’s public finances, therefore, reflects fiscal constipation more than it does budget conservatism. Chronic underspending is partly because of heightened scrutiny of graft in the wake of some high-profile corruption busts, as well as bureaucratic bottlenecks, such as the difficulty of buying land. A new land-acquisition law passed in December should quicken spending on needed infrastructure. But if land is one problem, labour is becoming another. On January 27th several thousand factory workers on motorcycles blocked a main toll road linking manufacturing zones in West Java to Jakarta, the capital, backing up traffic and paralysing the region’s commerce. The workers were protesting against a court ruling overturning the provincial governor’s decision to raise their minimum wage by 15.5%, to about $165 a month. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Indonesia’s president, immediately intervened—on behalf of the blockading workers. His labour ministry asked the employers’ association, which had won the court case, to back down. The government’s handling of the dispute irked foreign investors. The South Korean embassy, according to the Jakarta Post, wrote to the government, lamenting the congestion, disruption and damage to factories. Japan’s embassy complained to the police. And an official at Taiwan’s trade office warned that some Taiwanese firms would leave Jakarta or even Indonesia. Wages, he argued, should not outstrip inflation. Yet foreign investors protest too much. To say that wage rises should not exceed inflation is to say that real wages should remain stagnant—in other words, that Indonesia should never develop. Moreover, figures from Indonesia’s statistics agency suggest that the average wage for Indonesian production workers has not, in fact, outstripped inflation in recent years, although minimum wages have done so. So expect most foreign manufacturing firms to cough up and stay put. Nonetheless, the havoc has reminded overseas investors that a Komodo economy sometimes has a nasty bite.

(https://iaminvestor.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/gdp-indon-2012.gif) from the print edition | Asia JAKARTA – Kenaikan rating Indonesia ke investment grade oleh Moodys semakin memperkuat pengakuan internasional atas capaian kinerja perekonomian nasional yang sebelumnya dilakukan oleh Fitch. “Ini merupakan hasil dari kerja keras dari berbagai kebijakan yang ditempuh selama ini, didukung oleh peran serta para pelaku dunia usaha, sektor keuangan, dan masyarakat luas. Pencapaian tersebut jelas akan memberikan banyak keuntungan bagi perekonomian nasional ke depan,” ujar Ketua DPP PPP Bidang Ekonomi dan Wirausaha Aunur Rofiq di Jakarta. Dia menjelaskan, pengakuan dunia itu harus dimanfaatkan untuk memacu pertumbuhan ekonomi ke tingkat yang lebih tinggi, sehingga mampu mendorong penciptaan lapangan kerja dan mengatasi pengangguran dan kemiskinan. “Perlu langkah-langkah kebijakan lanjutan dibanding sekedar puas atas pencapaian ekonomi nasional yang diakui dunia,” ujarnya. Dia menambahkan, kenaikan rating Indonesia menjadi investment grade diraih melalui perjalanan panjang. Pada masa krisis Asia tahun 1997-1998, rating Indonesia anjlok tajam enam notch hanya dalam kurang dari setahun yaitu dari investment grade (BBB-) menjadi junk (B-). Ini berdampak pada merosotnya kepercayaan investor terhadap perekonomian nasional, sehingga terjadi gelombang penarikan modal dan terhentinya arus modal asing masuk ke Indonesia. Pada saat yang sama, kata dia, perekonomian mengalami resesi yang cukup dalam, dengan pertumbuhan minus 13 persen, sementara inflasi melonjak sangat tinggi hingga mencapai 68 persen. Industri perbankan kolaps sehingga harus direkapitalisasi dengan biaya yang sangat besar. “Dalam upaya untuk bangkit dari keterpurukan krisis, perekonomian Indonesia masih terlalu lemah untuk berhadapan dengan guncangan eksternal dan internal,” ujarnya. Menurut Aunur, baru setelah selama 14 tahun melakukan reformasi di bidang ekonomi, keuangan dan politik, baru pada akhir tahun 2011 lalu Indonesia dinilai layak menjadi tempat investasi dengan risiko yang relatif terkendali oleh investor internasional,” ungkapnya. Menurut dia, kenaikan rating ini merupakan pengakuan internasional atas capaian kinerja ekonomi Indonesia selama ini. “Pengakuan ini semakin memperkuat keyakinan bahwa di tengah meningkatnya ketidakpastian kondisi global belakangan ini, perekonomian Indonesia tetap memiliki ketahanan yang cukup baik,” terangnya. http://economy.okezone.com/read/2012/02/20/20/578642/investment-grade-ri-butuh-kebijakan-lanjutan (http://economy.okezone.com/read/2012/02/20/20/578642/investment-grade-ri-butuhkebijakan-lanjutan) Sumber : OKEZONE.COM bumi2009fans

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February 20, 2012March 29, 2012

72 Minutes

alamat palsu: imbas GLOBAL … 130212 … sayang Whitney ga sempat merayakan Valentine Day taon naga air ini … bwat yang penasaran sila baca posting2 investasi terbaru gw: JO BUKAN PERAMAL (http://jlmaensaham2012.blogspot.com/view/classic); Jl Maen Saham BENERAN (http://yangvirtualyangnyata.wordpress.com/author/yangvirtualyangnyata/)… besok tgl 14 Feb 2012 gw buka akses bacanya ya sekira 60% investor bursa efek Indonesia adalah investor ASIENk sekira 30% investor surat utang pemerintah Indonesia adalah ASIEN-k ini menunjukkan betapa DEPENDENnya ekonomi finansial indon pada ASIENk betapa rawannya ketergantungan tersebut karena posisi tawar pemerintah dan bank Indonesia amat dipengaruni oleh pemikiran para investor asienk tersebut pemikiran asienk cukup sederhana: KEAMANAN pertama, KENYAMANAN kedua sedikit berbeda dengan investor lokal: KENYAMANAN pertama, keamanan pertama … walhasil, investor lokal juga SAMA PEDULI soal keamanan bila investor asienK merasa cemas, maka investor lokal juga cemas bila investor asienK merasa hepi, maka investor lokal LEBE HEPI investor asien-K terbiasa dengan kecepatan bereaksi investor lokal terbiasa dengan pengamatan perilaku asienK bila investor asienK cemas lalu bereaksi cepat menjual sebagian portofolio saham dan obligasi, maka tak pelak investor lokal juga melakukannya bila investor asienK hepi membeli portofolio keuangan Indonesia, maka investor lokal biasanya LEBE HEPI beli dan beli portofolio tersebut sangat sederhana mengamati perilaku investor di bursa efek indon pemikiran asienK terutama dipengaruhi oleh keamanan investasi GLOBAL investasi global terutama dipengaruhi oleh faktor2 ekonomi global yang raksasi dan menggurita faktor ekonomi global yang paling BESAR BERPENGARUH adalah ekonomi wilayah amrik dan euro skala besaran ekonomi kedua wilayah tersebut memang masih terbesar di dunia walau pun di masa depan, ekonomi 2 wilayah emerging markets akan juga berbicara lebe banyak, yaitu ASIA dan AMERIKA LATIN bila ekonomi amrik atau euro bergejolak karena faktor KEGAGALAN PENGENDALIAN UTANG swasta atawa negara, maka gejolak itu DIPIKIRKAN LEBE oleh para investor asienK, sehingga mereka akan segera menarik dana mereka secepat mungkin itu imbas global yang berperan besar pada perilaku investor lokal saat kecemasan ekonomi global berbicara, maka investor asienK akan ikut berbicara dalam arti berperilaku sesuai imbas global tersebut, sehingga para investor lokal suka tidak suka, mau tidak mau akan mengambil peran follower yang setara dan sesuai pada 2008, jelas imbas kegagalan pengendalian utang swasta amrik yang raksasi telah menimbulkan kesemrawutan pengendalian investasi portofolio indonn lalu pada 2011, sekali lage imbas ekonomi global dengan kegagalan Yunani mengendalikan utang telah menimbulkan prahara keuangan euro yang berimbas langsung pada investor asienK dan juga pada pengendalian investasi oleh investor lokal hikmah kondisi ekonomi global ini harus SELALU menjadi perhatian semua pihak, terutama rakyat Indonesia gw cuplik dari financial post, canadian: Get used to market complexity David Pett Feb 10, 2012 – 4:35 PM ET Coming to grips with such a seismic shift in the investing climate has analysts recommending alternative investing methods to achieve better diversification and greater returns in times of stress. Given the slow growth, high volatility and capital preservation that characterize the current investment environment, investors can be forgiven if they’re pining for the healthy economies, stable markets and excessive risk taking that reigned from the late 1980s to the mid-2000s. Coming to grips with such a seismic shift in the investing climate has analysts recommending alternative investing methods to achieve better diversification and greater returns in times of stress. “The post-crisis era of elevated macroeconomic and financial market volatility calls for a new approach to investing that builds on the lessons of the past few years,” said Sreekala Kochugovindan, an asset allocation strategist at Barclay’s Capital, in the U.K. firm’s latest annual Equity Gilt Study. “In uncertain times, investors must also consider alternative sources of return and yield enhancement.” Maybe the biggest lesson to be learned from recent events such as Europe’s sovereign debt crisis is that widely-held asset classes, like equities, bonds and cash, tend to be highly correlated with each other and fall in unison when market volatility spikes. contoh CEO yang GAGAL, 7 kesalahan mereka: Seven habits of spectacularly unsuccessful CEOs: The hall of shame Forbes Feb 10, 2012 – 3:15 PM ET | Last Updated: Feb 10, 2012 4:27 PM ET Jin Lee/Bloomberg Jin Lee/Bloomberg What was Jim Balsillie focused on just prior to and after the iPhone was introduced? Buying a hockey team. Comments Email Twitter inShare8 By Eric Jackson Dartmouth Professor Sydney Finkelstein first wrote about the Seven Habits of Spectacularly Unsuccessful Executives 8 years ago in “Why Smart Executives Fail.” When I wrote about the habits last month, I had no idea that the post would strike such a nerve with readers generating over 2 million page views and counting. The number one question readers asked me after reading that post was: Who are some more modern-day examples of CEOs and executives who suffer from these different habits? And how can we identify CEOs with these habits today – in order to avoid investing in them? I’m familiar with the habits as I studied and consulted with Syd on them for a number of years. I instinctively keep them in mind as an investor when considering taking a position in a company. So who are some recent examples of CEOs who have failed at these 7 habits? I present to you the people I would consider Charter Members of the Seven Habits of Spectacularly Unsuccessful CEOs Hall of Shame. Each of these men and women have earned the right to be part of this distinguished club. Many of their choices have been befuddling. Their attitudes at times have been head-scratching. Their arrogance has been breath-taking. Let’s go through them by habit. And keep in mind that the worst CEOs always start by exhibiting one of these habits and then see them snowball into other habits over time. Habit # 1: They see themselves and their companies as dominating their environment In my post last month, people questioned if some of the habits that Finkelstein’s research showed to be a cause of future failure weren’t actually positive. Like this first habit for example. Some people asked: Isn’t it a good thing that the CEOs think they and their companies can “dominate” their competitors? Isn’t self-confidence and the desire to run through walls — like an excited football team before a game — a good thing? Well, Finkelstein’s research showed that – in small doses – all of these 7 habits were positive things. However, they all become negatives when taken to extremes. You never want selfconfidence to cross the rubicon and become self-delusion. The best leaders always have a clear sense of reality as it is today, even though they might be trying to move towards a different vision for the organization’s future. The CEOs who fail at Habit 1 have a ‘King Midas Complex.’ They think that anything they touch will turn to go. They believe they can succeed in any business that they enter – no matter if they or the company have any relevant experience in it. They believe that they’ve been successful before and can do it again – no matter the industry. Signs of this habit are when a company over-expands – usually through doing too many acquisitions that they can’t digest. Hall of Shame members here include John Chambers at Cisco (CSCO) and Meg Whitman – who is currently the CEO of HP (HPQ) – who exhibited this trait at eBay (EBAY). John Chambers: A decade ago, Chambers was a “rock star” CEO. His appearances on CNBC were major events. Business media used to hang on his comments during earnings calls as indicators of where the economy was heading. But something started to happen to Cisco after the dot-com bubble burst and the company was no longer the most valuable in the world. Chambers went on a buying spree. He went into at least 30 different “market adjacencies” over the course of his purchases. Several of the most expensive ones took Cisco into the consumer space — something far different from selling routers and network infrastructure. Cisco bought home routers, Web-based anti-virus software, web conferencing software, Cable TV boxes, and video cameras. Last April, Chambers admitted in an internal memo that Cisco had lost its way with too many consumer acquisitions and that they would get back to their core business. From the day Cisco bought Flip in March 2009 until today, its stock is only up 30% while the Nasdaq is up 103%. Meg Whitman: Meg Whitman was constantly celebrated for eBay’s rise to Internet stardom in the late 90s. However, in 2005, Whitman made the odd decision to buy Skype for what would later turn out to be over US$4-billion. At the time, she said: “By combining the two leading e-commerce franchises, eBay and PayPal, with the leaders in Internet voice communications, we will create an extraordinarily powerful environment for business on the Net.” It turned out that there were no synergies between the marketplace and payments businesses and the phone business. What was worse, when eBay later sold Skype to an investor group, they realized that they didn’t actually own the intellectual property rights to the software which they’d paid the $4 billion for. They had to cut a special deal with Skype’s founders, in order to get the deal done. From the day eBay bought Skype until today, eBay’s stock is down 15% while the Nasdaq is up 33%. Habit #2: They identify so completely with the company that there is no clear boundary between their personal interests and their corporation?s interests CEOs sometimes get the lines blurred between what’s good for them personally and what’s good for their companies. If they are successful, they conclude that’s good for the company. However, a lot of times, CEOs can spend an extraordinary amount of time or company money on things that they are interested in but which lack a clear benefit to the company itself. They assume that pursuing something that’s good for them will be good for the company — or at least do their company no harm. Here are some egregious examples: Jim Balsillie: Balsillie was the co-CEO for Research In Motion (RIMM) who recently stepped down after his company’s stock price dropped by 70% last year. Part of the reason for the sharp decline is that the BlackBerry’s U.S. market share went from 44% to 9% in a year. Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone was introduced in January 2007. In hindsight, it changed the game to where users expected first rate software and an unlimited numbers of “apps” in their smart phones, whereas they’d previously only wanted an email retrieval service. RIM was unable to move quickly enough to adapt to the new market expectations. Yet, what was Jim Balsillie focused on just prior to and after the iPhone was introduced? Buying a hockey team. He first made an offer to buy the Pittsburgh Penguins in October 2006 for $185 million. In May 2007 (just after the iPhone started selling), Balsillie refocused on buying the Nashville Predators after his Penguins offer was refused. The NHL itself got involved to squash his Predators bid in May 2008. So, in May 2009, Balsillie offered $212.5 million to buy the Phoenix Coyotes. This also fell apart by the end of 2009. It wasn’t until April 2010, that RIM realized its smart phone software was unable to compete with iPhone (and, by then, Google’s (GOOG) Android software too) and they decided to buy a company called QNX to become their new smart phone software, which they still have yet to release in their phones. Maybe if Balsillie hadn’t been overly focused on his pet hockey project between 2006 – 2009, he might have noticed that RIM had a real problem on its hands that was about to torpedo the company. Mike Lazaridis: Of course, Balsillie isn’t completely responsible for RIM’s implosion. He needed the help of his co-CEO, Mike Lazaridis, for that. If Jim was distracted from running the business by personal interests in hockey, what was Mike distracted by? It turns out it was building a 26,000 square foot house over the last 6 years. The house, with photos and interview from Lazaridis conducted during a recent “media tour,” was featured last weekend in Canada’s national newspaper. Lazaridis built the house to be “an exclusive retreat for the world?s leading scientific and political minds, an awe-inspiring space where they can talk, exchange ideas and dream big. A place for the Stephen Hawkings of the world, as the building’s architect puts it.” Lots of CEOs get rich and build big homes. But this one, coincidentally, seemed to be distracting him, just as his co-CEO was being distracted by hockey, and his company was being eaten alive by Apple. Aubrey McClendon: Chesapeake Energy’s (CHK) CEO got himself into hot water in the crash of 2008. Aubrey McClendon — like a lot of investors in the crash of 2008 – got margin calls for some of his positions. He had to either pay up or sell the positions to keep in step with his broker. He ended up doing both and was forced to sell a lot of the stock he owned in his own company to meet margin requirements elsewhere. Yet, his board decided to do something to help him out of his personal financial difficulties and make him a little more liquid. First, they made him the highest paid CEO for 2008 in the S&P 500, part of which included new Chesapeake stock to replace what he’d had to sell. Second, they bought a collection of maps which McClendon owned for $12.1 million. The filing explaining this at the time states: Chesapeake “was interested in continuing to have use of the map collection and believed that it was not appropriate to continue to rely on cost-free loans of artwork from Mr. McClendon.” And how did they determine the price of $12.1 million was fair for these maps? They asked a third-party dealer for an appraisal. It turned out that dealer was the same one “who had assisted Mr. McClendon in acquiring this collection.” Habit #3: They think they have all the answers As I said before, it’s good to be confident. It’s not good to be arrogant. CEOs who think they have all the answers — and are always quick to assert that they know what to do at all times — are usually too quick pulling the trigger finger and end up shooting themselves and their companies in the foot. This habit is all about over-estimating your own abilities and saying you have the answers to a problem when you clearly don’t — or even don’t understand what the problem is in the first place. A great recent example of this was Carol Bartz at Yahoo! Carol Bartz: The fiery Bartz always believed she knew exactly what to do to turn the company around — even though she had no prior experience working in the consumer Internet space. Yet, the media immediately embraced Bartz for her self-confidence after her first conference call: In sharp contrast to Jerry Yang, Yahoo?s soft- spoken co-founder who preceded her as chief executive, Ms. Bartz delivered a short, sharp and at times combative speech. She took only three questions, one of which she partly dismissed as “a lot of nonsense.” She used a mild expletive to demand that Yahoo be given some “breathing room”…. “She sounds very decisive and very much in command, and that’s what investors wanted to hear,” said Ross Sandler, an analyst with RBC Capital Markets. Two months later, she met Alibaba Group’s Jack Ma. Yahoo! owns 40% of Alibaba and many believe that stake alone accounts for most of Yahoo!’s current market capitalization. Bartz knew little about Alibaba or the Chinese Internet at the time, but that didn’t stop her from telling Ma what he should be doing: Bartz proceeded to dress down Ma in front of his entire senior management team over Alibaba’s handling of Yahoo China, according to people in the room. “I’m going to be blunt because that’s my reputation,” she supposedly told Ma. “I want you to take our name off that site,” she said, referring to Yahoo China, which by that time had withered into irrelevance. Yahoo declines to comment on the episode. The relationship never recovered. When Bartz was fired by her board last September, it seemed to be a tacit recognition 2 years later that they’d picked the wrong person for the job. Her lack of industry experience did appear to hinder Yahoo!’s turnaround efforts. But don’t expect Bartz to agree with that assessment: Asked whom she thinks the board might appoint long-term , she replies, “They should bring me in. I knew what to do.” Habit #4: They ruthlessly eliminate anyone who isn’t completely behind them The best CEOs encourage open debate among the senior management team and employees. It’s all about finding the best ideas that serve the customers which is important. The spectacularly unsuccessful CEOs don’t like to have their opinions challenged. They also look out for junior executives who could one day be seen by the board of directors as a potential replacement CEO. Rather than let them stick around, the spectacularly unsuccessful CEOs seek to remove those potentially threatening executives — leaving only “yes men” and other executives who likely don’t have the right skills to be CEO one day. The previously mentioned Chambers has been CEO at Cisco for 17 years. Over that time, some have argued that he’s pushed out potential successors from Cisco. Some of the former “stars” who left Cisco included Mike Volpi, Charlie Giancarlo, and Tony Bates. One former Cisco executive who wished to stay anonymous said this when asked why the 62 year old hadn’t retired yet: John very much likes being CEO of Cisco and it is not only what he has been doing for almost two decades, but I think it is the foundation of his political persona which I don’t think he wants to give up. When asked about the quality of current potential internal successors for Chambers, one veteran tech banker said: There doesn’t appear to be anyone within Cisco who is positioned to take over. Michael Eisner: Another CEO who seemed to suffer from this habit was Disney’s (DIS) Michael Eisner. Back in 1994, Jeffrey Katzenberg quit Disney, after Eisner refused to promote Katzenberg to the #2 spot which would have made him the heir apparent to Eisner. Katzenberg believed that Eisner felt threatened because Katzenberg had been so successful in turning around Disney films over the prior 10 years. Eisner would serve another 12 years as CEO, before finally passing the reins over to Bob Iger in 2006. Sandy Weill: Perhaps the most famous CEO to suffer from this habit though was Citigroup’s Sandy Weill when he forced out Jamie Dimon from the bank in 1998. Today, Dimon is the king of all bank CEOs in America, leading JPMorgan Chase. Back in 1998, Dimon was equally well-admired internally at Citigroup. Most believed he would succeed Sandy Weill upon retirement, not just because of Dimon’s abilities but because he and Weill had worked to together since Jamie graduated from Harvard Business School starting at American Express (AXP). However, Dimon and Weill got in a fight when Dimon refused to give Weill’s daughter, Jessica Bibliowicz, a promotion on her merits. Dimon reemerged as the CEO of Bank One 18 months later in Chicago and later became President of JPMorgan Chase in 2004 when they bought Bank One. Weill, meanwhile, passed the baton to his top lawyer Chuck Prince, who many consider responsible for almost destroying Citigroup in the crisis of 2008. In December 2006, Citi hit a high of $557/share (pre-reverse split adjusted). It now trades for $34. Another measure of the impact of this particular habit is that JPMorgan Chase’s stock price is down 25% in the last 5 years while Citi’s is down 94%. Habit #5: They are consummate spokespersons, obsessed with the company image This habit got a lot of push-back last month in the post comments. Readers complained: “Wasn’t Steve Jobs obsessed with his company’s image? He did ok, didn’t he?” But, like the other habits, this one is all about balance. The research clearly shows it’s not wrong to be obsessive about your company’s image (as Jobs was) but it is if you do that at the expense of paying attention to the actual operating performance of the company (as Jobs clearly didn’t). If you’re a CEO craving PR coverage and not focusing enough on running your business, you’re breaking this habit. Carly Fiorina: It’s been 7 years since Carly Fiorina quit as the CEO of HP (HPQ). There were many reasons for why she had to go at the end of her tenure. However, one of her early mistakes was certainly being overly focused on her press image instead of the actual business. I remember attending a meeting with HP employees in 2002 where I was trying to pitch them on a software partnership with my company at the time. I couldn’t believe it but we spent the first 20 minutes of the meeting joking about what a disastrous CEO Carly was. The HP employees related to me how completely out of touch she was with the morale of the company and the kinds of operational overlap issues they were having. In their eyes, deep within the bowels of the organization, Fiorina was completely out of touch and too busy flying around on her private jet to photo shoots for business magazines. Habit #6: They underestimate obstacles If you are constantly under-estimating obstacles about to knock-off your company from its perch atop of a market, it’s only a matter of time before that catches up to you. You’ve got to be confident enough to work hard to be successful in any business, but the research shows that ex-Intel (INTC) CEO Andy Grove was right when he said that “only the paranoid survive.” You’ve got to keep a healthy sense of paranoia as a CEO. That’s what keeps you on your toes and in touch with the markets needs. Brushing off potential threats is usually a sign of a big blind spot for your company. Steve Ballmer: Apple has been one of the most disruptive companies in the world in the last 5 years. The iPhone wasn’t available 5 years ago and it now accounts for over half of Apple’s revenues and some believe over 70% of its profits. Apple has left a trail of mobile phone company CEOs’ bodies in its wake, including those from Nokia (NOK), Palm, and RIM. Steve Ballmer is still the CEO of Microsoft and the company has been doing well of late. At the time of this writing, its stock is at a 52 week high. However, Ballmer will probably go down in history for the CEO who most under-estimated the potential of iPhone because of this one TV interview: Windows Mobile Phones were completely killed off in a few short years and now Microsoft is just coming back to market with its totally rethought mobile phone software based on what the market came to expect from iPhone. To be fair to Ballmer, listen to this reaction from RIM’s Jim Balsillie about what he thought of the iPhone in June 2007: Balsillie also brushed off concerns that RIM will face strong competition from the iPhone from here on in. Apple is launching the iPhone with only one carrier, AT&T, in one country while RIM is all over the world on dozens of providers. “I’ve said before they did us a great favour because they drove attention to the converged appliance space,” he said. “The attention to it has quite frankly been overwhelmingly positive for our business.” It didn’t work out that way. Habit #7: They stubbornly rely on what worked for them in the past Here is another habit which elicited strong reader reaction after the last post. Isn’t it a good thing for CEOs to do the things that have previously made them successful in the past? After all, if someone’s a good sales person, what’s wrong with continuing to sell as you’ve always done in the past? The research did find that most CEOs has one or two defining moments in their career path prior to them be selected to become CEO. These successes might have been developing a winning product, cutting costs in order to turn around a problem division, or entering some new geography. However, being a CEO is a very complex job compared to preceding jobs in a career path. If you’ve been a financial person all your career, you need to learn about Sales and Marketing. If you come from a Marketing background and become a CEO of a technology or financial firm, you have to ensure you deeply understand the other sides of that business. Jeffrey Katzenberg: We spoke before about how Katzenberg was forced out of Disney because his former mentor suffered from one of the Seven Habits. It turns out that Katzenberg himself suffers from this particular habits. Katzenberg has clearly gone on, post-Disney, to achieve good success by many standards. He started Dreamworks Animation (DWA) with Steven Speilberg and David Geffen. He’s had a lot of hits like the Shrek franchise. However, he clearly has been eclipsed by Pixar (which is now owned by Disney) in the last 20 years of animation. Yet it could have been quite different. As you can read in Walter Isaccson’s biography of Steve Jobs, Katzenberg was originally in charge of the Pixar relationship for Disney. He pushed back on the original Toy Story script that came from Pixar to Disney and tried to change it in many ways before Pixar pushed back and insisted on making it the way they wanted. At the crux of the disagreement between Pixar and Katzenberg were two views of what it meant to make an animated film. Katzenberg grew up revitalizing Disney films in the 80s through big budget stories involving a certain type of animation. Pixar brought a completely different method with computer generated animation and a different kind of story-telling. Katzenberg didn’t recognize it and tried to make it more like the style he was used to. After Katzenberg quit Disney to try and stick it to Eisner, he created Dreamworks Animation in the image of what he thought an animated film had to be. While his approach has been a success by many measures, it’s clearly been eclipsed by Pixar’s run over the same period which took a much different approach to animation and story-telling which captivated audiences. Welcome Charter Members to the Seven Habits of Spectacularly Unsuccessful CEOs Hall of Shame. bumi2009fans

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February 9, 2012February 13, 2012

18 Minutes

beautiful: perTumBuhAn GDP kita @6,23% … aja: 05022013 Pertumbuhan Ekonomi 2012 Hanya 6,23 Persen Penulis : Didik Purwanto | Selasa, 5 Februari 2013 | 12:19 WIB JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com – Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mencatat pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia sepanjang 2012 sebesar 6,23 persen. Angka tersebut turun dibandingkan sepanjang 2011 sebesar 6,5 persen. Kepala BPS Suryamin menjelaskan pertumbuhan ekonomi di kuartal IV-2012 sebesar 6,11 persen, turun tipis 1,45 persen dibanding kuartal III-2011 sebesar 6,17 persen. “Penurunan pada kuartal IV-2012 ini disebabkan sektor pertanian mengalami penurunan cukup signifikan sebesar 23,06 persen karena siklus musiman,” kata Suryamin di kantornya, Jakarta, Selasa (5/2/2013). Menurut Suryamin, pertumbuhan terjadi di semua sektor ekonomi dengan pertumbuhan tertinggi di sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi sebesar 9,98 persen dan terendah di sektor pertambangan dan penggalian 1,49 persen. Sementara PDB tanpa migas tahun 2012 sebesar 6,81 persen. Secara kuartalan, PDB Indonesia kuartal IV-2012 dibanding kuartal III-2012 mengalami penurunan 1,45 persen. Namun bila dibanding kuartal IV-2011 mengalami kenaikan dari sebesar 6,11 persen. Sementara sektor penunjang di kuartal IV-2012 adalah sektor konstruksi tumbuh 4,02 persen, sektor listrik, gas dan air bersih tumbuh 3,34 persen, sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran 2,74 persen, sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi tumbuh 2 persen, sektor jasa 1,96 persen, sektor industri pengolahan tumbuh 1,41 persen, sektor keuangan, real estate dan jasa perusahaan 1,23 persen dan sektor pertambangan dan penggalian 0,2 persen. Sedangkan jumlah total produk domestik bruto (PDB) sepanjang 2012 adalah Rp 8.241,9 triliun, sementara Atas Dasar Harga Berlaku (ADHB) adalah Rp 2.618,1 triliun. Dari sisi komponen pertumbuhan ekonomi di 2012 adalah konsumsi tumbuh 5,28 persen, belanja pemerintah 1,25 persen, pembentukan modal tetap bruto atau investasi tumbuh 9,8 persen, ekspor tumbuh 2,01 persen dan impor 6,65 persen. “Karena ada moratorium PNS, sehingga belanja pemerintah tidak terlalu tinggi. Ekspor memang rendah sehingga terjadi defisit. Jadi penopang utama pertumbuhan ekonomi 2012 berasal dari konsumsi dan investasi,” tambahnya. Editor : Erlangga Djumena Seluruh Asumsi Makro 2012 Meleset dari Target Selasa, 8 Januari 2013 | 06:39 WIB JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com – Gejolak ekonomi global rupanya berdampak pada kondisi makro Indonesia. Akibat guncangan ekonomi global, seluruh asumsi dasar ekonomi makro dalam APBNP 2012 meleset dari target. Menteri Keuangan Agus Martowardojo mengungkapkan, realisasi pertumbuhan ekonomi tahun 2012 sepertinya hanya akan mencapai 6,3 persen atau lebih rendah ketimbang asumsi yang dipatok dalam APBNP 2012 yang sebesar 6,5 persen. Sementara itu, realisasi inflasi hanya sebesar 4,3 persen atau lebih rendah dari asumsi yang dipatok dalam APBNP 2012 sebesar 6,8 persen. Wakil Menteri Keuangan Anny Ratnawati menambahkan tak seperti tahun 2011 lalu di mana realisasi pertumbuhan ekonomi bisa mencapai 6,5 persen. maka realisasi pertumbuhan ekonomi 2012 diperkirakan hanya 6,3 persen. Penyebabnya, “Ada koreksi di net ekspor kita yang mengalami penurunan,” katanya Senin (7/12/2013). Ia menambahkan, kenaikan investasi yang terjadi pada tahun 2012 juga berdampak pada tingginya impor bahan baku/penolong dan impor barang modal. Makanya, Anny bilang ke depan pemerintah perlu melihat keterkaitan investasi terhadap penguatan sektor industri. Sehingga pengembangan investasi ke depan perlu memperhatikan ketersediaan komponen bahan baku di dalam negeri. Pelaksana tugas (Plt) Kepala Badan Kebijakan Fiskal (BKF) Bambang Brodjonegoro menambahkan, realisasi pertumbuhan ekonomi yang hanya 6,3 persen salah satunya disebabkan karena rendahnya penyerapan belanja modal pemerintah. “Kalau belanja modal bisa diserap dengan baik, pendapat kami pertumbuhan ekonomi minimal bisa mencapai 6,4 persen – 6,5 persen pada tahun 2012,” ungkapnya. Catatan saja, hingga akhir tahun realisasi belanja modal hanya sebesar Rp 140,2 triliun atau 79,6 persen dari pagu APBNP 2012 yang sebesar Rp 176,1 triliun. Padahal pada tahun 2011 lalu, realisasi belanja modal bisa mencapai 83,6 persen dari pagu anggarannya dalam APBNP 2011. Agus menambahkan, realisasi nilai tukar rupiah juga meleset dari asumsi. Dalam APBNP 2012 pemerintah mematok asumsi nilai tukar sebesar Rp 9.000 per dollar AS, tapi realisasinya meleset menjadi Rp 9,384 per dollar AS. Sepanjang tahun 2012 nilai tukar rupiah terdepresiasi sekitar 6,9 persen dibanding rata-rata tahun sebelumnya yang sebesar Rp 8.779 per dollar AS. Suku bunga SPN 3 bulan realisasinya hanya 3,2 persen lebih rendah dari asumsinya yang sebesar 5 persen. Sementara itu, realisasi harga minyak mentah Indonesia alias ICP meleset menjadi 112,7 dollar AS per barel, lebih tinggi dari asumsi APBNP 2012 yang sebesar 105 dollar AS per barrel. “Lifting minyak mentah juga meleset menjadi 861.000 barel per hari, lebih rendah dari asumsi APBNP 2012 yang sebesar 930.000 barel per hari,” kata Agus. (Herlina KD/Kontan (http://www.kontan.co.id)) Empat Ancaman Perekonomian 2013 Rabu, 21 November 2012 | 20:04 JAKARTA – Setidaknya ada empat ancaman yang mungkin menghadang pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional tahun depan yaitu politik, inflasi, krisis global, dan hubungan industrial. “Tahun depan adalah tahun politik, yang akan mengurangi gerak menteri ekonomi yang berasal dari partai politik,” kata pengamat ekonomi dari LIPI, Latif Adam, mengatakan pada forum diskusi kelompok (FGD) tentang prediksi isu ekonomi yang diselenggarakan Kementerian Komunikasi dan Informatika (Kominfo) di Jakarta, Rabu. Ia mengkhawatirkan para menteri ekonomi yang berasal dari partai politik mulai tidak fokus dalam bekerja membangun perekonomian nasional, karena ada kepentingan politik di dalamnya. “Kalau sampai kacau balau seperti itu, kita sulit mencapai pertumbuhan 6,5 persen tahun depan,” ujarnya. Latif juga mengkhawatirkan penurunan pertumbuhan ekonomi China yang berdampak pada penurunan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Berdasarkan data IMF, kata dia, bila pertumbuhan ekonomi China turun satu persen, akan berpengaruh pada penurunan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia sebesar 0,5 persen. Padahal dalam beberapa tahun terakhir China terus menurunkan pertumbuhan ekonominya, sehingga tahun ini diprediksi hanya 7-8 persen. “Kondisi itu terjadi karena interaksi perdagangan Indonesia yang semakin besar dengan China, serta investasi China yang semakin banyak di Indonesia,” kata Latif. Ia juga menyoroti hubungan industrial yang memburuk, dengan banyaknya aksi demonstrasi buruh. Menurut Latif, pemerintah harus segera menyelesaikan persoalan hubungan buruhpengusaha, terkait masalah upah, tenaga alih daya. “Harus ada terobosan, bila tidak akan menjadi kerikil pertumbuhan ekonomi tahun depan,” ujarnya. Ia memperkirakan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia berada pada kisaran 6,5 sampai 6,8 persen tahun 2013. Ancaman lainnya, menurut Latif adalah kenaikan inflasi akibat depresiasi, gejolak pangan, kebijakan subsidi, dan kenaikan tarif tenaga listrik (TTL). Ia memperkirakan Inflasi tahun 2013 berkisar pada angka 5,5 – 6,5 persen. Sementara itu, pengamat ekonomi lainnya, Aviliani mengatakan pada 2013 paling aman bagi pemerintah melakukan pembatasan bahan bakar minyak (BBM) bersubsidi agar tidak terjadi lonjakan inflasi bila harga BBM bersubsidi dinaikkan. “Bila pembatasan BBM diberlakukan, inflasi hanya akan naik satu persen,” ujarnya. Selain itu, resiko politik dari pembatasan BBM bersubsidi lebih kecil, dibandingkan pemerintah memilih kenaikan harga BBM. Diakuinya hal itu akan mendorong kenaikan defisit APBN pada 2013, karena kuota BBM bertambah sementara harga tetap. Untuk itu ia mengusulkan agar pemerintah mendorong pajak pendapatan, namun menghapus pajak untuk usaha mikro, kecil dan menengah (UMKM) agar tetap terjadi peningkatan pendapatan masyarakat. Sedangkan pengamat ekonomi dari Atma Jaya A Prasetyantoko mengatakan pada 2013 relatif ekonomi Indonesia aman, karena likuiditas dari luar terutama Uni Eropa yang sedang menghadapi krisis dan Amerika Serikat yang ekonominya melambat, akan tetap masuk ke Indonesia. “Likuiditas tersebut harus dikelola, karena bila tidak ada resikonya,” ujar dia. Menurut dia, di tengah krisis Eropa dan perlambatan ekonomi Amerika Serikat, Indonesia bisa mengambil kesempatan untuk melakukan peningkatan daya saing dan memantapkan struktur pengembangan industri agar bisa bersaing lebih kuat ketika ekonomi Eropa dan AS pulih. (tk/ant) Indonesia neh

Asia’s great moderation

Some of the world’s stablest economies are Asian. Time to worry? Nov 10th 2012 | HONG KONG | from the print edition LAOS, a poor country of 6m people wedged between Vietnam and Thailand, has no openings to the sea and few routes to world attention. But it is now enjoying a rare moment in the sun. Last month it won approval to join the World Trade Organisation. This week it hosted the ninth Asia-Europe meeting, which brings together leaders from the world’s most and least dynamic regions. Its small economy, which exports gold, copper and hydropower, is distinguishing itself. Its growth rate is not only one of the fastest in the world but also one of the steadiest.

From 2002 to 2011 growth fluctuated within a remarkably narrow range, never falling below 6.2% and never rising above 8.7%. Only three countries have recorded a steadier growth rate (as measured by its standard deviation) over that period. Two of them are also Asian: Indonesia and Bangladesh. Growth in developing Asia is now steadier, as well as faster, than growth in the “mature” economies of the G7 (see chart 1). It was more stable in 2002-11 than over any other ten-year span since 1988-97. The “Great Moderation” is the name given to the era of economic tranquillity that prevailed in America and elsewhere in the rich world before the financial crisis. Should the label now be applied to Asia? Asia’s economies are better known for their speed than their stability. From 1996 to 1998, for example, growth in five big South-East Asian countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam) swung from 7.5% to minus 8.3% as the Asian financial crisis struck. Even now some highly open economies, such as Thailand, Singapore and Taiwan, remain more volatile than the global average. Exposed to international trade flows, their industrial output fluctuates like a twirling ribbon with every twitch of demand. But developing Asia (which excludes rich economies like Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan) is dominated by populous countries that rely increasingly on domestic demand to drive their economies. Household consumption contributed half of the growth of just over 6% Indonesia enjoyed in the year to the third quarter (its eighth consecutive quarter of growth at that pace). Exports have fallen from about 35% of GDP ten years ago to less than a quarter in 2011. Developing Asia’s combined current-account surplus, which reflects its dependence on foreign demand, more than halved from 2008 to 2011 and is expected to fall further this year. Asia’s stability also owes something to demand management. During the Asian financial crisis policymakers faced a dilemma. They could defend their exchange rates by raising interest rates. But that would cripple borrowers. Or they could let their currencies fall and ease rates. But that would inflate the burden of foreign-currency debt, crippling borrowers too. In the aftermath of the crisis the region worked its way out of this trap. Most countries accumulated an impressive stock of hard-currency reserves and weaned themselves off foreign-bank loans in favour of foreign equity and local-currency bonds. Because these liabilities were denominated in their own currency, they did not rise in value when the currency fell. That has freed policymakers to cut interest rates when the economy slows. Indonesia’s central bank, for example, slashed rates by three percentage points from December 2008 to August 2009. It cut rates by another point from October 2011 to February 2012. Thanks in part to its responsive central bank, Indonesia’s year-on-year growth rates over the past 20 quarters have been the most stable in the world. Wise monetary policy was also one of the reasons cited for the Great Moderation enjoyed by the G7 economies. Another was the supposed depth and sophistication of the rich world’s financial systems, which, it was said, allowed households to smooth their spending, firms to diversify their borrowing and banks to unburden their balance-sheets. Both of these pillars of stability proved false comforts. Economists had not quite settled on an explanation for the Great Moderation before it inconveniently ceased to exist.

Worryingly, Asia’s great moderation has also been accompanied by sharply rising credit. According to Fred Neumann of HSBC, leverage is now higher than at any time since the Asian financial crisis (see chart 2). This credit expansion may represent healthy “financial deepening”, which many economists believe is a cause of growth and stability. But rising leverage can also be a threat to stability. The late Hyman Minsky, among others, argued that drops in volatility allow firms and households to borrow more of the money they invest. Stability, in Minsky’s formulation, eventually becomes destabilising. Overleverage does not require excessive optimism, merely excessive certitude; not fast growth, merely steady growth. Fortunately, Asia’s policymakers never shared the West’s faith in self-correcting financial systems. The region has pioneered “macroprudential” regulations, designed to curb excessive credit and capital flows even without raising interest rates. In March, for example, Indonesia tightened loan-to-value ratios on mortgages and imposed minimum downpayments on car and motorbike loans. Mr Neumann is, however, sceptical that regulatory tightening can substitute for the monetary kind. Macroprudential controls are not watertight, he notes. As long as capital remains cheap, money will leak. If the regulator lowers mortgage loan-to-value ratios, for example, banks may simply raise the appraised value of a home. If regulators impede foreign purchases of property, as Hong Kong just did, foreigners will seek inventive ways around the rules. Hong Kong’s freedom to raise rates is constrained by its currency’s fixed link to the dollar, one of the few pegs to survive the Asian financial crisis. Other central banks do not have that excuse. Currency flexibility has given them the freedom to cut rates when growth slows. It should also allow them to raise rates when financial excess threatens—even if rates remain near zero in America, Europe and Japan. If stable growth allows lenders or borrowers to become overstretched, it can “sow the seeds of its own destruction”, Mr Neumann argues. Nothing great about that.

(https://iaminvestor.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/gdp-angka-pengangguran-global.jpg) Kuartal III, Ekonomi Indonesia Tumbuh 6,17 Persen Penulis : Didik Purwanto | Senin, 5 November 2012 | 14:13 WIB JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com – Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mencatat pertumbuhan domestik bruto (PDB) Indonesia pada kuartal III-2012 sebesar 6,17 persen. Nilai tersebut cenderung lebih rendah dibanding kuartal III-2011 yang tumbuh 6,5 persen. “Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia secara tahunan naik 6,17 persen, secara kuartalan naik 3,21 persen dan secara akumulasi naik 6,29 persen,” kata Kepala BPS Suryamin di kantornya Jakarta, Senin (5/11/2012). Menurut Suryamin, pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia tersebut dikontribusikan oleh konsumsi rumah tangga 5,68 persen. Namun konsumsi tersebut bukan disebabkan karena konsumsi makanan tapi karena lebaran, liburan dan sebagainya yang mengontribusikan kenaikan 6,7 persen. Sementara konsumsi rumah tangga dari sektor makanan mengontribusikan kenaikan 4,72 persen. Di sisi lain, PDB juga disebabkan penurunan konsumsi pemerintah sebesar 3,22 persen. “Penurunan ini karena penurunan belanja pegawai tahunan yaitu realisasi gaji PNS ke-13 sudah dibayar Juni 2012. Jadi sekarang tidak ada pembayaran gaji lagi. Ada juga moratorium pegawai, penerimaan PNS di akhir 2011 serta penurunan juga untuk bantuan sosial. Raskin juga menurun 1 juta Rumah Tangga,” tambahnya. Selain itu, dari sisi sektor, pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia juga dikontribusikan dari sektor perdagangan, hotel, restoran yang naik 1,22 persen, pengangkutan dan komunikasi yang naik 1,02 persen serta sektor industri pengolahan yang naik 1,62 persen. “Ini merupakan tiga sektor tertinggi yang menyebabkan ekonomi Indonesia tumbuh. Itu merupakan sektor non tradeable, yang menyerap tenaga kerja tinggi, tapi itu hanya yang punya skill saja,” tambahnya. Sedangkan Pembentukan Modal Tetap Bruto naik 10,02 persen, ekspor turun 2,78 persen dan impor turun 0,54 persen. “Di Juli lalu, kita mengalami deflasi, di Agustus dan September kita juga sudah mengalami surplus, meski tipis. Ini juga menjadi penopangnya,” tambahnya. Di sisi lain, ekonomi RI pada kuartal III-2012 secara kuartalan naik 3,21 persen. Kontribusinya dari pengeluaran konsumsi Rumah Tangga 2,71 persen, PMTB naik 2,94 persen, ekspor turun 0,21 persen dan impor naik 8,36 persen. Secara akumulasi, PDB Indonesia naik 6,29 persen yang disebabkan karena kenaikan konsumsi rumah tangga 5,29 persen, belanja pegawai naik 2,97 persen, PMTB 10,77 persen, ekspor 2,21 persen dan impor 6,04 persen. Editor : A. Wisnubrata bumi2009fans

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February 5, 2012February 5, 2013

9 Minutes

alamat palsu: recovery to RESTORATION (5) Greek Bailout Deal Edges Nearer By Tony Czuczka and Jeffrey Donovan – Feb 18, 2012 6:08 AM GMT+0700 Euro-area governments closed in on a deal to unlock a 130 billion-euro ($171 billion) aid package for Greece, seeking to avert the region’s first sovereign default. Germany, the biggest country contributor to euro-area rescues, signaled that finance ministers may be ready to back Greece’s second bailout in two years when they meet Feb. 20 in Brussels. After a week of wrangling among euro-area officials, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government indicated it aims to avoid splitting the timetable of the aid and a writedown of Greek debt to private bondholders and agree to the deal as one package. Greece’s struggle to give assurances on debt-reduction goals through the end of the decade have heightened uncertainty as the clock ticks toward a March 20 bond redemption when Greece must pay 14.5 billion euros or trigger the first sovereign default in the euro’s 13-year history. The Brussels gathering on Feb. 20 is due to start at 3:30 p.m. instead of the usual 5 p.m. “The ongoing saga will likely go down to the wire and is, yet again, another reminder of the fragile nature of the state of affairs in Europe and the potential for a disorderly default,” Michael Gapen, a New York-based economist at Barclays Capital, said in a note. Germany has led pressure on Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos to enforce austerity in his country, stoking recrimination between Europe’s southern countries and their northern creditors. Greece’s economy, stuck in what is predicted to be a fifth year of recession, shrank 7 percent from a year earlier in the fourth quarter as unemployment climbed to 20.9 percent in November. ECB Role In focus over the weekend will be role of the European Central Bank as it holds talks with Greece over exempting Greek bonds in national central banks’ investment portfolios from a debt restructuring, two euro-area officials said. Investors anticipating a conclusion of the seven-month effort to complete the second bailout for Greece sent the euro and global stocks higher this week. The euro rose 0.2 percent to $1.3150 as of 6:58 p.m. in Berlin yesterday after earlier gaining as much as 0.5 percent. Merkel, Papademos and Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti discussed plans for a second Greek bailout in a conference call yesterday and are confident that finance ministers will “find a solution to open questions” when they meet in Brussels, Steffen Seibert, Merkel’s chief spokesman, said in a statement. Debt Targets While Greek lawmakers this month passed austerity measures that are required for the aid, euro-area finance ministers heard on a Feb. 15 conference call that Greece would miss debtreduction goals without further measures. Greece’s debt would fall to 129 percent of gross domestic product in 2020, missing a target of 120 percent, said three people familiar with the talks who declined to be named because they are still in progress. Last year, the level was about 160 percent. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble signaled flexibility on that target, saying during a panel discussion in Stuttgart last night that “the 120 percent may be 122 percent or 123 percent, it mustn’t be 130 percent.” “It will definitely take until Sunday night” to resolve the outstanding questions, Finance Ministry spokesman Martin Kotthaus told reporters in Berlin. Keeping the bond swap on track may hinge on the ECB. The bank is swapping its Greek bonds for new ones to ensure it isn’t forced to take losses in any debt restructuring, three euro-area officials said on Feb. 16. The move may be completed by Feb. 20, the officials said. Bond Swap That could pave the way for a private-sector bond swap that aims to slice about 100 billion euros off Greece’s debt alongside the second bailout. More controversial is a proposal for national central banks to take part in the private exchange by accepting losses on Greek bonds in their investment portfolios. “Markets are likely anticipating a positive outcome with voluntary participation of the private sector and possibly some ECB involvement,” Silvio Peruzzo, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland in London, said by e-mail. Even so, “Greece is likely to remain a key risk for the euro area as the implementation of the program feeds the theme of exit from the monetary union.” Euro officials are targeting a window of Feb. 22 to March 9 to complete the swap transaction, German lawmakers were told during a briefing by government officials last week. Collective Action Clauses The Greek government is meanwhile drawing up legislation that could be used to impose losses on investors who don’t support the debt swap, according to two euro-region officials familiar with the situation. The law may be introduced to parliament in Athens in the coming days, said one of the officials. Finance ministers are prepared to back the use of so- called collective action clauses if the voluntary swap doesn’t draw enough participation, the other person said. The bond exchange can only go ahead once governments authorize the European Financial Stability Facility to provide 30 billion euros, to be used in cash or collateral as an incentive to investors. With Greece’s ability to honor its debt-cutting pledges still in question, finance ministers may again withhold approval of the bailout even if they back the bond exchange, Citigroup Global Markets analysts said. That would push the dispute closer to a March 1-2 summit of European leaders. Holding back euro-area policy makers is “widespread skepticism about the credibility of Greece’s political system as a whole and its ability to implement what has already been agreed,” Nomura Global Economics analysts said. What Happens If Greece Doesn’t Get a Bailout? By Michael Schuman | February 16, 2012 | 8 After the Greek parliament on Sunday passed yet another package of austerity measures demanded by its euro-zone neighbors – this one worth $4.4 billion – the path seemed clear to finalizing a long-delayed, second bailout of the country totaling $170 billion. Well, it turns out the Greek vote wasn’t enough to satisfy skeptical euro-zone leaders. Instead of pinning down the bailout details, European finance ministries have reopened the entire plan to bail out Greece. A debate is now raging among euro-zone countries over whether or not a second bailout makes any sense at all. The basic problem apparently is that there is a growing belief in some northern euro members – such as Germany and Finland – that Greece’s politicians will never be capable of implementing reforms, whatever promises are made now, so a new bailout would end up being a waste of money. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble publicly questioned the commitment of Greece’s politicians to reform after an upcoming election. When this latest twist in the debt crisis will resolve itself is unclear. Greek politicians are scrambling to find yet more budget cuts to appease their euro-zone partners. Jean-Claude Juncker, the prime minister of Luxembourg, said that a resolution will come in a meeting of finance ministers on Monday. But there is talk that a final decision on the bailout may not be taken until early March, maybe even later, or that the bailout might be split up into parts, with some facing postponements. The doubts and disagreements have exposed the widening divisions and distrust the ongoing debt crisis is cracking open in the monetary union. On Wednesday, Greek President Karolos Papoulias lashed out at Greece’s critics in Germany and elsewhere. “We are all obliged to work hard to get through this crisis, but we cannot accept insults from Mr. Schäuble,” the president blasted. “Who is Mr. Schäuble to insult Greece? Who are these Dutchmen, who are these Finns? We have always defended not only the freedom of our own country, but the freedom of Europe.” Hey, wasn’t the euro supposed to be an instrument for peace and democracy? I guess that’s not the case when $170 billion is on the table. The possibility that Greece may not get its bailout changes the outlook for the euro zone dramatically. Without that rescue money, Greece would almost certainly default, probably in March. And what would the consequences be? There’s a not-so-bad scenario, a bad scenario and an absolutely catastrophic scenario. First, the not-so-bad outcome: Greeks would suffer terribly, but damage to the rest of the euro zone would be limited. Many of us have been questioning the wisdom of a second bailout of Greece for a while. Europe’s leaders are really just playing catch-up on this idea. The thinking has been that Greece needs a full-on reboot of its economy, not more bailout loans. Another rescue wouldn’t bring Greece’s debt down to sustainable levels anyway, and its calculations are based on unrealistic assumptions about the Greek government’s ability to deliver on reforms and privatization. The euro-zone arrangement for a second bailout plus moderate debt reduction would only saddle the country with debts it couldn’t pay and trap its people in a depressed economy for a very long period of time. In other words, a bailout may not actually succeed in fixing Greece. Since the economy is in worse shape now than it was when it received its first bailout in 2010 – with a sharply contracting GDP, a higher debt-to-GDP ratio, and massive social upheaval – in some ways a second bailout appears to make less sense than ever. Better to just let Greece default, forcing a true restructuring of its debt. The main impetus for a second bailout has been fears of the contagion effect a disorderly Greek default would have on the monetary union. But it appears that some in European government circles believe that those fears are overblown. The impact of a Greek default could be contained, the thinking goes. Financial markets are already acting on the assumption that Greece will default, so there is no surprise value. The current structure of the second bailout includes a default in all but name, just an organized one – the restructuring of $265 million of Greek sovereign debt. Private bondholders will already take a 50% haircut on Greek bonds in that restructuring, so there’s no way of avoiding losses at big European banks even if a second bailout goes ahead. Of course, a Greek default would be disastrous for Greece. It would destroy the Greek banking sector, cut Greece off from new funding and force a drastic reduction in the size of the Greek budget. But all that will have to happen anyway, even with a bailout. In other words, if the pain can be contained to Greece, why not just let Greece go and start over? I see the logic behind this thinking. But we also have to question if it is possible for Greece to remain in the monetary union without a bailout. So that takes us to the bad scenario: a Greek default forces the country out of the euro zone. Here’s how that would play out: A Greek default cuts the country off from access to any new funds, but Athens requires financing from outside the country to keep the government running. That raises the specter of a government that can’t pay salaries or run state services (though it is possible that policymakers could redirect money that would have gone to servicing its debt into paying its bills). The default also wipes out the entire Greek banking sector, which is holding large amounts of government bonds, but there is no money around to recapitalize them. Even worse, Greeks of all types, upon hearing news of a failed bailout, would empty their bank accounts and send their money out of the country. They would quickly realize that the looming default could mean an exit from the euro zone, and when the drachma returned, it would do so at a depressed value, wiping out a hefty chunk of their euro savings. So Greece experiences a total meltdown of its financial sector. The only solution for Greece is printing money to fill in all of the holes, but since the country is a member of the euro zone, it can’t print euros. That forces Greece to withdraw from the euro zone and return to its original currency, the drachma. The hope in Europe would then be that the chaos would stop there – that the combination of the euro-zone bailout fund and commitments to the rest of its members would prevent any other countries from leaving the zone. So you’d have major turmoil in financial markets, but the euro zone would hold together, minus Greece. That’s not impossible. But at the same time, there is a chance that Europe’s leaders could miscalculate the impact a Greek default would have on sentiment in financial markets, and the possible degree of contagion that would result. European politicians have consistently misjudged the market reaction to their decisions in fighting the crisis. That takes us to the really catastrophic scenario – an unraveling of the entire euro zone. It goes something like this: Let’s try to imagine what would happen in other, troubled, euro-zone countries if Greece defaulted. For example, Portugal. Investors have come to worry that Portugal, like Greece, will require a second bailout. The Portuguese, watching events unfold in Greece, could very well lose faith in their own economy, as well. So the Portuguese head down to their local bank branches and empty their bank accounts of euros just like the Greeks, and ship them out of the country. Compounding matters, foreign investors, fearing a Portuguese default similar to the Greek one, dump their holdings of Portuguese debt on a massive scale, sending borrowing costs soaring. That means the euro zone would have to rush aid to Portugal to save it, too, from being forced out of the monetary union. And then what happens to Spain, or Italy? Oh the humanity! How likely is this worst-case scenario? I’m not going to give odds here. The fact is the fallout from a Greek default is impossible to predict. That’s why in the end, if I had to make a bet, I’d say the Greeks will get their bailout. The nightmare possibilities are simply too great for the rest of Europe to dismiss. But to warn you, I’m not a betting man. Read more: http://business.time.com/2012/02/16/what-happens-if-greece-doesnt-get-a-bailout/#ixzz1mZCBhI6f (http://business.time.com/2012/02/16/what-happens-if-greece-doesnt-get-abailout/#ixzz1mZCBhI6f) BRUSSELS, Feb 16, 2012 (AFP) The eurozone told Greece it must accept tough EU surveillance if it is to unlock a stalled bailout next week and avoid a messy default, despite meeting key hurdles at Wednesday night talks. A statement from Eurogroup chair Jean-Claude Juncker after a lengthy video conference, during which hardline finance ministers demanded rigid oversight of Greek state revenues and expenditure, avoided any direct mention of the disputed 230-billion-euro ($300 billion) rescue. Instead, following a day of fraying tempers in the months-long tug-of-war, the Luxembourg prime minister said only that he was confident his colleagues could “take all the necessary decisions on Monday,” when they next meet face-to-face in Brussels. With the clock running down on a 14.5-billion-euro bond repayments deadline for the Greek government on March 20, the euro lost ground against the dollar for a fourth straight day and US markets also ended trading down. The termperature had risen early in the day when German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble warned: “We can help but we are not going to pour money into a bottomless pit.” Hit with mounting conditions to obtain loans first promised in October, Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told his citizens that “several” of his adversaries “no longer want us” in the currency area. President Carolos Papoulias, a resistance fighter during Greece’s World War II occupation by Germany, took personal exception, the 82-year-old crying: “I do not accept having my country taunted by Mr Schaeuble, as a Greek I do not accept it.” He named the Dutch and the Finns as chief cheerleaders, Dutch premier Mark Rutte having already floated publicly a willingness to contemplate an eventual Greek euro exit. Juncker credited Greece with delivering on three conditions laid down at ministers’ last gathering six days earlier. Greek coalition leaders had given “strong assurances” that austerity and reform would be upheld by whoever wins an April general election, he said, while foreign auditors provided an analysis of Greek debt sustainability and Athens identified an extra 325 million euros in cuts. In a letter demanded by eurozone partners, Greek Conservative leader Antonis Samaras, tipped to win, said his party would “remain committed to the objectives, targets and key policies” identified by a so-called troika running a first bailout begun nearly two years ago. But the conditions Greece must meet for revamped aid are still mounting, Juncker flagging “a detailed list of prior actions” Greece must complete, “together with a timeline for their implementation.” These hark back to a sense of betrayal among some eurozone states over a promised 50-billion privatisation drive that has delivered very little and still-rampant tax evasion. With trust wearing thin, Juncker said “further considerations” were necessary on how to supervise the management of the Greek state, and “to ensure that priority is given to debt servicing.” Bailout chiefs in Athens were already working to set up an “escrow,” or blocked account, that would prioritise governmental creditors, a senior eurozone governmental source told AFP. At the European Parliament, Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti said Greece, in its fifth year of recession, was being forced to adapt after “a perfect catalogue of the worst practices in Europe.” Fully Triple A-rated states Germany, the Netherlands, Finland and Luxembourg will stage their own huddle first on Monday alongside France, a governmental source told AFP. Diplomats and officials said they could then greenlight the launch of a complicated bond swap offer, which would need to be underwritten by untapped eurozone bailout resources and backed by certain national parliaments. This is aimed at shaving 100 billion euros off Greece’s 350-billion debts.

Authorisation for another 100 billion of loans would be left hanging while banks and other creditors decide in the run-up to March 20 whether to accept a write-down worth at least 75 percent of their holdings. The governmental source said the go-ahead for the bond swap would be “conditioned on the Greeks fulfilling certain actions in the coming weeks… Otherwise the sweeteners don’t get released,” referring to 30 billion euros notionally set aside to recapitalise Greek banks. rt-burs/bm PARIS, Feb 15, 2012 (AFP) France’s economy grew 1.7 percent in 2011, in line with the government target, after a better-than-expected fourth quarter growth of 0.2 percent, the national statistics institute INSEE said Wednesday. The government had maintained its forecast of 1.75 percent even though most economists expected growth for the year to be 1.6 percent, tipping a contraction of 0.2 percent in the three months to December. While many believe the economy is slowing, the positive fourth quarter averts for the moment the threat that France would be in recession just before presidential polls due in April and May. Growth came to 0.9 percent in the first quarter of 2011, minus 0.1 percent in the second and 0.3 percent in the third. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative figures. France grew 1.4 percent in 2010. Finance Minister Francois Baroin stressed that the figures were in line with government estimates and had been achieved in “an internationally difficult environment.” INILAH.COM, Jakarta – Menteri Keuangan Zona Euro mengatakan para pemimpin partai politik di Athena telah gagal memberikan komitmen yang diperlukan untuk reformasi. Seorang sumber yang akrab dengan negosiasi dana penyelamatan Yunani sebesar 130 miliar euro seperti dikutip Reuters mengatakan pemimpin konservatif Antonis Samaras pernah menandatangani komitmen untuk melaksanakan paket yang sangat tidak populer yang ditetapkan oleh EU/IMF untuk melakukan reformasi ekonomi dan pemotongan anggaran. Tapi ada laporan terbaru yang mengatakan para pemimpin Konservatif Yunani pada kenyataannya akan memberikan komitmen mereka untuk lender pada hari Rabu. Laporan menyebabkan pasar saham AS memangkas kerugiannya pada menit terakhir perdagangan Selasa (14/2/2012). Menteri di Eurogroup diperkirakan akan berkumpul di Brussels pada hari Rabu untuk melakukan pertemuan, yang mana jika semua sudah merencanakan, akan menyetujui bailout dan menyelamatkan Yunani dari kebangkrutan bulan depan. Namun, dengan sabar Uni Eropa dengan Yunani mendekati titik pemecahannya. Ketua Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker mengatakan para menteri akan terus melakukan konferensi melalui telepon sebelum mengadakan pertemuan rutin yang sudah dijadwalkan pada 20 Februari. Juncker mengatakan ia menunggu surat tertulis dari pemimpin Partai Yunani untuk mendorong paket penghematan, pensiun dan pemangkasan pekerja. “Sayabelum menerima jaminan politik yang dibutuhkan dari para pemimpin Partai koalisi Yunani pada pelaksanaan program,” katanya dalam sebuah pernyataan. Sumber mengatakan di Athena bahwa masalah terletak pada Samaras, yang berpendapat bahwa penghematan yang diminta oleh Uni Eropa dan IMF hanya memperdalam resesi Yunani dan yang telah terbukti enggan untuk menandatangani pernyataan tertulis. “Jadi jika Samaras tidak memberi surat komitmen, ini menjadi masalah,” kata sumber itu kepada Reuters. Partai New Demokrasi Samaras menolak komentar. Sumber pemerintah mengatakan Samaras akan memberikan sikapnya pada hari Rabu pagi. http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1830401/athena-gagal-beri-komitmen-reformasi (http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1830401/athena-gagal-beri-komitmen-reformasi) Sumber : INILAH.COM Feb 14 – Summary of business headlines: Greek conservative leader set to back austerity-fueled bailout BRUSSEL-Para menteri keuangan zona euro telah menunda lagi keputusan dana talangan (bailout) baru untuk Yunani karena belum memenuhi kondisi untuk penyelamatan, kepala Eurogroup mengatakan Selasa (14/2). Para menteri diperkirakan akan bertemu di Brussel pada Rabu tetapi pembicaraan dialihkan menjadi sebuah konferensi jarak jauh setelah politisi Yunani gagal memberikan komitmen tertulis mereka untuk memberlakukan pemotongan yang dituntut oleh kreditor. “Saya belum menerima jaminan politik yang dibutuhkan dari para pemimpin partai koalisi Yunani pada pelaksanaan program,” Perdana Menteri Luksemburg Jean-Claude Juncker mengatakan dalam sebuah pernyataan. Juncker mengatakan “pekerjaan teknis lebih lanjut” juga diperlukan antara Yunani dan auditor Uni Eropa dan IMF “di sejumlah wilayah,” termasuk mendapatkan 325 juta euro lain dalam penghematan dan penyelesaian analisis dari keberlanjutan utang Yunani. “Dengan latar belakang ini, saya telah memutuskan untuk mengadakan konferensi jarak jauh para menteri besok untuk membahas isu yang beredar dan menyiapkan pertemuan biasa dari Eurogroup pada Senin,” tambahnya. Yunani sangat membutuhkan 230 miliar euro (303 miliar dolar AS) paket penyelamatan — 130 miliar euro pada pinjaman barur dan 100 miliar euro pengurangan pada obligasi yang dipegang swasta — untuk menghindari gagal bayar pada utang yang jatuh tempo 20 Maret.(ant/hrb) http://www.investor.co.id/international/zona-euro-tunda-keputusan-dana-talangan-yunani/29980 (http://www.investor.co.id/international/zona-euro-tunda-keputusan-dana-talanganyunani/29980) Sumber : INVESTOR DAILY Feb. 12, 2012, 12:34 p.m. EST Greece set for critical vote on spending cuts Debt-plagued nation has to pass austerity plan in return for bailout By Jeffry Bartash, MarketWatch WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Greek lawmakers gathered on Sunday to vote on a controversial austerity plan whose passage is required before Germany and other lenders will agree to a bailout package worth 130 billion euros ($176.6 billion). Click to Play Europe’s week ahead: Greek bailout Vote, warnings reports The Greek parliament is scheduled to vote on Sunday and euro-zone finance ministers will meet on Wednesday to officially sign off the bailout deal. Nestle, BNP Paribas and SocGen will report earnings, reports MarketWatch’s Sara Sjolin. The southern Europe nation, plagued by a worsening debt crisis, will consider another round of deep cuts in spending. The cutbacks would touch virtually every part of the economy and result in reductions in government salaries, worker pensions and even the minimum wage. As protesters gathered outside parliament, Greek lawmakers prepared to approve the austerity plan. A vote was expected by late Sunday, U.S. eastern time. The debt crisis in Greece has roiled financial markets in Europe and the U.S. for more than a year, raising the prospect that the small nation could even be forced to leave the euro zone. U.S. stocks sank on Friday amid worries that Greece might not win approval for fresh aid. European leaders, already dealing with a weakened continental economy, want to prevent the financial failure of Greece and any resulting contagion to other member of the Euro zone. Yet they want strong conditions attached because of the perception that Greece failed to take sufficient action after its first major bailout in 2010. The country is widely viewed as having fallen short of its promises for reduced spending and regulatory reform. On Sunday, German leaders once again warned Greece that it won’t tolerate inaction. Germany is the largest economy in the euro zone, of which Greece is also a member, and it would bear a greater burden of the bailout costs. Reluctant German support Polls show that Germans would reluctantly support further aid if Greece took concrete steps to rein in spending and reform its economy. Reuters GreeK Prime Minister Lucas Papademos. “The promises from Greece aren’t enough for us any more,” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said in an interview printed Sunday in a German newspaper The EU, led by Germany and France, and the International Monetary Fund are prepared to offer more aid if Greece passes its latest plan. Loans from private lenders could also be restructured to sharply reduce principal and make it easier for Greece to repay. The Greek prime minister, Lucas Papademos, has warned his countrymen that failure to pass the austerity plan could lead to the nation’s eviction from the Euro zone and put it on a path to financial ruin. Greece, now in the fifth year of a recession, already suffers from nearly 20% unemployment and a scarcity of new jobs. The latest round of proposed cuts has angered many Greeks and caused some to lash out at Germany. Yet with a March 20 deadline for debt payments looming, Greece has to act fast. “If the law is not passed, the country will go bankrupt,” Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos starkly warned lawmakers. Even if Greece passes the bill, the European Union would still be economically vulnerable. There’s no guarantee the second Greek bailout will work any better than the first one, while many other EU members, including Italy and Spain, are also saddled with high debts. High national debts are historically linked to slower economic growth and poor job creation. Greek lawmakers approve austerity bill as Athens burns 6:43pm EST By Harry Papachristou and Yannis Behrakis ATHENS (Reuters) – The Greek parliament approved a deeply unpopular austerity bill to secure a second EU/IMF bailout and avoid national bankruptcy, as buildings burned across central Athens and violence spread around the country. Cinemas, cafes, shops and banks were set ablaze in central Athens as black-masked protesters fought riot police outside parliament. State television reported the violence spread to the tourist islands of Corfu and Crete, the northern city of Thessaloniki and towns in central Greece. Shops were looted in the capital where police said 34 buildings were ablaze. Prime Minister Lucas Papademos denounced the worst breakdown of order since 2008 when violence gripped Greece for weeks after police shot a 15-year-old schoolboy. “Vandalism, violence and destruction have no place in a democratic country and won’t be tolerated,” he told parliament as it prepared to vote on the new 130 billion euro bailout to save Greece from a chaotic bankruptcy. Papademos told lawmakers shortly before they voted that they would be gravely mistaken if they rejected the package that demands deep pay, pension and job cuts, as this would threaten Greece’s place in the European mainstream. “It would be a huge historical injustice if the country from which European culture sprang … reached bankruptcy and was led, due to one more mistake, to national isolation and national despair,” he said. The chaos outside parliament showed how tough it will be to implement the measures. A Reuters photographer saw buildings in Athens engulfed in flames and huge plumes of smoke rose in the night sky. “We are facing destruction. Our country, our home, has become ripe for burning, the centre of Athens is in flames. We cannot allow populism to burn our country down,” conservative lawmaker Costis Hatzidakis told parliament. The air in Syntagma Square outside parliament was thick with tear gas as riot police fought running battles with youths who smashed marble balustrades and hurled stones and petrol bombs. Terrified Greeks and tourists fled the rock-strewn streets and the clouds of stinging gas, cramming into hotel lobbies for shelter as lines of riot police Feb. 10, 2012, 12:01 a.m. EST 5 stock pros confess their biggest market worries Euro-zone debt, U.S. economic woes weigh on investing strategies By Barbara Kollmeyer, MarketWatch Reuters MADRID (MarketWatch) — The headaches besetting globally oriented investment managers are constant, but the pain essentially has two sources: Slow economic growth and the European sovereign debt crisis. Greece has struck a debt-restructuring deal with its private creditors, and a path seems clear to a second bailout from international lenders, but investment managers are sensitive to the volatility and losses that international-markets stockholders suffered in 2011. And there’s still a lengthy list of problems to confront. TRADING DECK The mother of all buying opportunities European financials are outperforming S&P, but is a true trend in leadership emerging? For a sense of how asset managers are coping with the current global investment climate and to understand their worst fears, MarketWatch spoke to five seasoned professionals who are based outside of the U.S., from London to Hong Kong, about their biggest stock-market worries: Khiem Do: Baring Asset Management “How is it going to end?” Khiem Do asked about Europe’s debt troubles. “How much has to be written off and who is going to take the haircut?” In response to this uncertainty, Do, manager of Baring Asset Management’s closed-end Asia Pacific Fund, Inc. (NYSE:APB) and head of the investment firm’s multi-asset management for Asia, is steering clear of banks in the U.S. and in Europe that are closer to the crisis. The Hong Kong-based fund manager is investing in Asian banks instead. Read more: 5 money moves an Asian stock-fund manager is making now. At the same time, Do added, “We don’t want to be too bearish on the U.S. economy right now.” So the fund manager favors U.S. utilities, telecommunications, consumer staples, technology and energy stocks. “If there were to be a massive selloff in European banks due to any of the macro risk,” he said, these sectors would still do all right. Said Do: “They are more stable companies.” Read more: Greek political leaders reach deal. Rainer Baumann: Sustainable Asset Management Rainer Baumann, Zurich-based head of portfolio management at Sustainable Asset Management, is concerned that the U.S. economic growth this year will fall short of expectations of 2%plus. \ “Fundamentals seem to be fragile,” Baumann said. Sustainable Asset Management, which oversees about $11.4 billion in assets, invests only invest in companies that are sustainable leaders, which acts as a natural hedge. “Our companies are more stable and robust,” he said. Plus, he added, companies with a clear way of addressing long-term trends, problems and risks can often work through tough times. Roche Holding AG (SWL:CH:ROG) (OTN:RHHBY) , for example, has a place in the SAM Sustainable Global Equity Fund. Roche, Baumann said, has an ideal combination of attractive fundamentals and valuation. IBM Corp. (NYSE:IBM) is also in the fund. “It’s a company that outperforms and their policies and strategies address future challenges or future risks,” he said. Didier Saint-Georges: Carmignac Gestion Economic growth is also key for Didier Saint-Georges, member of the Investment Committee at Carmignac Gestion, which has over €45 billion under management. He said the Paris-based firm has been progressively raising exposure to equities after paring back in 2011. “Europe is in the doldrums, U.S. growth is stabilizing at an average level, but we have good prospects for consumer-led economic growth in emerging markets,” said Saint-Georges. “Therefore we are avoiding very domestic sectors and we favor companies which will be positioned to capture demand, which will be mostly in emerging markets.” He added: “In addition to holding European and U.S. exporters, we have a lot of Chinese, Indian, Brazilian and Indonesian stocks oriented towards local consumer demand,” such as electrical appliance companies and local car distributors. Dividends are not the main draw. “One has to be very careful in an economic downturn about sustainability of dividends in this environment, in that growth is a scarce resource. We think if we find good growth stories we get better performance,” Saint-Georges said. The Carmignac Investissement Fund’s second-biggest holding is Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) . Saint-Georges said the firm likes the company for its growth story, but also for the potential that Apple could one day pay a shareholder dividend. Neil Dwane: Allianz Global Investors/RCM Neil Dwane, London-based chief investment officer for Allianz Global Investors/RCM, which has €500 billion under management across all major asset classes, said he’s concerned about the Middle East. Specifically, he’s paying close attention to the situation in Syria and Iran and the ramifications of last year’s Arab Spring revolutions. Any trouble in those regions could lead to higher oil prices, he said. “The reason I am worried about it is because we’re already seeing world economic growth slowing to below what we’ve been used to for the last 10 to 15 years, with emerging markets being the key driver of that growth,” Dwane said. “My concern would be any further ratcheting of the oil price would put that growth at risk.” Investors need to think about the economic impact that an interruption in the oil supply would have on China and Asia, which is already paying a premium price for crude, he said. “Because we think emerging markets are the growth engine of the world, we like oil, as well because BP (NYSE:BP) (LSS:UK:BP) , Shell (NYSE:RDS.A) (LSS:UK:RDSA) and Total (NYSE:TOT) (EPA:FR:FP) have good dividends. So we think you kind of get a confluence of positive effects. Stocks are cheap, no downside.“ Nick Nefouse: BlackRock Inc. Corporate profit margins for the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index (SNC:SPX) have been on a tear since bottoming in late 2009. But as BlackRock’s Nick Nefouse points out, that is not going to last forever. “You get to a point in the cycle where you made a lot of money, but it starts to slip,” said London-based Nefouse, product specialist for the BlackRock Global Equity Income Fund. “We’re not dealing with those things yet,” he added, “but the mean reverts over time.” Investors should focus on quality companies that can withstand volatility better than rivals, and stocks that pay dividends, Nefouse said, though he cautioned that dividend-paying companies are not always high quality. Global telecom fits the bill nowadays. “The sector is not really well liked by a lot of people in the market; there’s a fairly big underweight globally. Second, they generate a lot of free cash flow, which is what we like to see, a pay out to shareholders in form of dividends,” Nefouse said. He also likes more cyclical areas and particularly industrials, such as those in the U.S. that have sold off in the last few months. “A lot of the time the market selloff has happened to higherquality names.” Like many others, he’s bracing for more volatility this year. “You’ve got to be more patient and look out a bit farther, Nefouse said. “There’s a lot of risk within the market…in the short-term the market is not always driven by fundamentals.” Papademos Gets Cabinet Approval for 2nd Bailout Q By Maria Petrakis, Natalie Weeks and Marcus Bensasson – Feb 11, 2012 5:51 AM GMT+0700 bloomberg Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos obtained approval from his Cabinet for deeper budget cuts needed to secure a second package of international aid, clearing the latest hurdle in his race to prevent financial collapse. Cabinet approved the 287-page document unanimously, said a government official, who declined to be named. The approval means the 300-seat Parliament will vote, probably tomorrow, on budget measures amounting to 7 percent of gross domestic product over the next three years and a debt swap to slice 100 billion euros off more than 200 billion euros of privately-held debt. “The social cost this program implies will be limited compared to the economic and social catastrophe that would follow if we don’t adopt it,” Papademos told his ministers earlier, according to an e-mailed transcript of his comments. “The completion of the program and financial support will cement our country’s future in the euro area.”

The approval capped a week of tension in Athens as European Union and International Monetary Fund officials argued with Greek government officials over the conditions required to secure the 130 billion-euro ($172 billion) rescue package. Papademos reached agreement with the three party leaders supporting his interim government hours before a crucial meeting of euro area finance ministers in Brussels on Feb. 9, only to be told the measures needed more work. BRUSSELS, Feb 10, 2012 (AFP) Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos hit out Friday at conservative rival Antonio Samaras for a refusal to back a state pension-fund raid that saw his hopes of securing a new bailout stall. Deputy premier Venizelos claimed that Greece’s eurozone fate ultimately would depend on the decision Samaras takes on the issue over the coming days, as the Greek parliament prepares a vote on new austerity amid a general strike. Venizelos’ hopes of returning from Brussels with a 130-billion-euro ($171 billion) second bailout in his pocket evaporated as a “staff-level” agreement between Greek political rivals and international creditors was poorly received. Eurozone counterparts said Greece had to meet three conditions: a successful vote by lawmakers expected on Sunday, after a 48-hour stoppage called by unions; what eurozone chief JeanClaude Juncker termed “strong political assurance” from coalition partners; and the filling of a 325-million-euro hole in the government’s spending plans. Samaras refused to sanction the pension cuts, despite committing to other spending cuts and reforms. Venizelos said his counterparts “took into consideration that Samaras has still not signed” the full text of that agreement, and warned afterwards that the Conservative party “must come out clearly” and say which road it wants the country to take. Greece is in dire need of financial aid soon since it has bond payments of 14.5 billion euros due March 20, And Venizelos said of Samaras’ Conservative party: “It must decide — if they want to stay in the eurozone, they have to say so clearly. “If they don’t, then they have to say that clearly as well. “The choice is between two decisions — very difficult, and very, very difficult,” Venizelos underlined. The eurozone will hold a new meeting next Wednesday if the three conditions are met, alongside parallel negotiations on a debt writedown with its private lenders, where it hopes to slash 100 billion euros from its 350-billion-euro debt mountain. Venizelos did, however, open the door to plans for the EU to take a much more active role in the running of Greek government affairs on the ground, focused on the opening of an escrow account for Greece, which would block a portion of state revenues to guarantee the repayment of bailout loans. EU economic affairs commissioner Olli Rehn said eurozone partners are now “seriously considering” plans he said offered “one possibility for reinforcing surveillance and effectively implementing the programme,” and Venizelos told Greek reporters he was willing to look again at the issue. Breaking: unity on bailout reforms 9 Feb 2012 The country’s political leaders have clinched a deal on austerity measures needed to secure a bailout to keep the country afloat, two government sources said on Thursday. “Yes, there is a deal,” one government official said. European Central Bank ECB President Mario Draghi on Thursday confirmed a deal between Greece’s political parties on bailout conditions had been reached but said he could not say anything about how his central bank’s holdings of Greek bonds would be treated. “On Greece, I’m sorry to say I cannot say anything about how our holdings of Greek bonds both under the SMP (bond buying) programme and national central bank holdings will be treated,” Draghi told a news conference. “What I can say, however, is…that a few minutes ago I got a call from the prime minister of Greece saying that an agreement has been reached and has been endorsed by the major parties. This afternoon we will be having a euro group meeting with the ministers, and we will be having a full report of this, the agreement, and also a discussion of the further steps.” Sources have said the ECB is divided about whether it should forgo profits on its Greek bond holdings when private investors are pushed to accept a cut of about 70 percent in value. Athens has urged the ECB to hand back profits on its Greek bond holdings, a move which could raise 12bn euros or more. The ECB’s 23-member Governing Council has yet to agree a position. Some ECB policymakers are reluctant for the bank to show a willingness to share in the restructuring burden for fear of easing the pressure on Athens to agree spending cuts. The ECB is also captive to the Maastricht Treaty, which forbids the central bank from financing governments. (Reuters) February 9, 2012 Breakthrough on Austerity Clears Way for Greek Deal By RACHEL DONADIO and NIKI KITSANTONIS ATHENS — After days of dramatic talks, Greek political leaders reached a deal on Thursday to support a package of harsh austerity measures demanded by Greece’s financial backers in return for the country’s latest bailout. The deal is expected to unlock the €130 billion, or $172 billion, in new loans and save Greece from a potentially disastrous default. Talks between Prime Minister Lucas D. Papademos and the three leaders backing his coalition had stalled overnight over proposed cuts to pensions, but on Thursday leaders said they had found a way of plugging the €300 million shortfall by cutting defense spending and other expenditures. A statement issued by the prime minister’s office on Thursday afternoon confirmed that the government and its creditors had an agreement. “Talks between the government and the troika on the issue, which had remained open for further elaboration and discussion, concluded successfully this morning,” the statement said. “As is well-known, the program accompanies the new loan deal with which Greece is to receive €130 billion in funding.” After more than seven hours, talks had stalled early Thursday between Mr. Papademos and the three political leaders in his government, who agreed on a range of steep wage cuts and public sector layoffs. But the politically unpopular pension cuts had proven most thorny. Once the deal is finalized and the measures are approved by the Greek Parliament in the coming days, the lenders are expected to begin releasing to Greece the aid it needs to prevent a default when its next debt payment comes due on March 20. The deal is also expected to pave the way for a bond swap under which private investors would take losses of as much as 70 percent — a deal that must be completed well before the debt comes due. Mr. Draghi declined to comment on how Greek bonds held by the E.C.B. and national central banks would be affected under the terms of the swap. A Greek parliamentary vote on the full package of measures was scheduled for Sunday. Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos of Greece was to brief his counterparts in Brussels later Thursday. Before leaving Athens, Mr. Venizelos had appealed to the political leaders for the umpteenth time, saying that their decisions “will determine whether the country remains in the euro zone or whether its place in Europe will be endangered.” Even then, the line between Greek political theater and international financial trauma was difficult to discern. And after weeks of delays and threats from both sides — many of them empty — it was clear that the credibility of both Greece and its lenders was on the line. The country’s two main labor unions called for a strike Friday and Saturday to protest the new proposed package of austerity measures. Union leaders said protest rallies would be held outside Parliament on both days of the strike and on Sunday during the vote. After breaking talks with Mr. Papademos and issuing statements, the three political leaders had retired to their homes for the night about 2 a.m. A little while earlier, while Mr. Papademos was holding talks with Greece’s foreign lenders, one of the three leaders participating in the government, George Karatzaferis, the leader of the Popular Orthodox Rally, issued a statement saying that he was unwilling to agree to the terms of the new bailout and indicating that he might withdraw from the government. That would leave the burden of accepting the austerity measures on the other two parties in the coalition, the Socialists and the center-right New Democracy party. A government official said that Mr. Papademos had communicated with the leader of New Democracy, Antonis Samaras, and that they had agreed on how to make up the shortfall. Local media said Mr. Papademos had not spoken with Mr. Karatzaferis. Although Greece’s so-called troika of foreign lenders — the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund — have indicated that they will ask for written agreements from the party leaders that they will support the loan agreement, the government is still expected to be able to approve the agreement without Mr. Karatzaferis’s party. Even if he does pull out of the coalition, the government will have a majority in Parliament, where the Popular Orthodox Rally has only 16 of the coalition’s 252 seats. With elections expected as soon as April, the parties are fighting for political survival. The leaders appear to have agreed to one of the most unpopular austerity measures, a 22 percent reduction in the minimum wage, to €586 a month, according to an earlier statement by the prime minister’s office. That cut is expected to affect all salaried workers, because the base wage is used as a benchmark by employers. But Mr. Samaras, of New Democracy, said the talks had foundered over cuts to pensions. Mr. Karatzaferis, whose populist, hard-right former opposition party has been losing ground with voters since it joined the government, said he would support Mr. Samaras to prevent proposed cuts to supplementary pensions.. Analysts suggested that the coalition partners were seeking to avoid blame for the agreement in hopes of leaving Mr. Papademos as the principal target of public anger. Jean-Claude Juncker, the prime minister of Luxembourg, who heads a group of euro zone finance ministers, had scheduled a ministerial meeting for Thursday that he had previously said he would call only if Athens were ready to sign off on the plan. Even that meeting would not be the final word. But it would allow for preparations for a bond swap under which private investors would take losses of as much as 70 percent, according to one person briefed on discussions who agreed to describe them only if the person were not identified. Some details of the bailout remained unclear, but it appeared increasingly likely that the European Central Bank would agree to forgo at least some of its potential profits on Greek bonds, once the government in Athens had agreed to the austerity measures. The first installment of the bailout was supposed to be an €89 billion segment in March, but officials are now saying that payment might be limited to about €30 billion to ensure that Greece continues to abide by the terms in coming months. Landon Thomas Jr. contributed reporting from London, and Jack Ewing from Frankfurt. This article has been revised to reflect the following correction: Correction: February 9, 2012 An earlier version of this article misstated the amount in pension cuts that is being sought by Greece’s foreign lenders. Greece is expected to find €300 million in pension cuts, not €300 billion. ATHENS, Feb 9, 2012 (AFP) Greek government coalition leaders ended lengthy talks on austerity measures Wednesday, with one remaining point of disagreement, the prime minister’s office said. The three coalition partners who took part in the talks on a rescue plan for the Greek economy reached agreement on “all the points of the plan except one” said the prime minister’s office which still hopes for a complete deal to be reached by Thursday evening. The remaining bone of contention is “the reduction of pensions,” a government source told AFP, after the coalition talks broke up. Representatives of the EU, IMF and European Central Bank, which have been organising massive bailout loans for debt-laden Athens, went straight into talks with Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos after the eight-hour coalition talks ended, a government source told AFP. The EU-IMF-ECB troika talks with Papademos were aimed at “concluding a deal before the Eurogroup meeting,” of eurozone finance ministers scheduled to take place in Brussels on Thursday. Agreement on new measures demanded by the EU, the IMF and the European Central Bank — known as the ‘troika’ — and on a debt-write down by banks would open the way for a second rescue and so close a key chapter in the eurozone crisis. This money is vital to prevent eurozone member Greece from defaulting on 14.5 billion euros ($19.2 billion) worth of payments to bond holders which will fall due on March 20. The socialist, conservative and far-right leaders must approve reported cuts to the minimum wage — strongly resisted by unions — in addition to pension reductions and 15,000 civil service redundancies. Far-right leader Georgios Karatzaferis was the first to emerge from the coalition talks late Wednesday, denouncing the pressure which the troika of creditors was bringing to bear on the government for more painful cuts in public spending. “I made clear my intentions right at the start of the meeting. I cannot in one hour sign up to a plan which will affect the country for 40 or 50 years with receiving (legal) assurances that the measures are going to get the country out of its impasse,” he told reporters. According to Papademos’ office “Mr Karatzaferis expressed numerous reservations,” about the plan. Conservative leader Antonis Samaras stressed that “talks will continue on the question of retirement.” “At this difficult moment, we must take care of retirees,” he said. The party heads earlier in the day received a 50-page text with the austerity cuts demanded in return for new loans under a 130-billion euro ($171-billion) eurozone bailout originally agreed in October. The text was drawn up during a night of marathon talks between Papademos and representatives from the troika aimed at setting up a second rescue for Athens following an initial bailout worth 110 billion euros in May 2010. Private creditors, who are negotiating with Greece a debt write-off worth at least 100 billion euros, are to meet on Thursday in Paris, according to a spokesman. Greece has run up total debt of about 350 billion euros, roughly 160 percent of its gross domestic product, and the IMF has insisted that level be brought down to a maximum of 120 percent of GDP in 2020. The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that the ECB would participate in a writedown of Greece’s debt by agreeing “to exchange the government bonds it purchased in the secondary market last year at a price below face value, provided the debt-restructuring talks have a successful outcome.” On bond markets, where tension has eased markedly since the beginning of the year, the reaction was subdued. “Whether this turns out to be the good news that the market is currently expecting, or another short term rally followed by a painful pull back remains to be seen,” analyst Alistair Cotton said in a note. “But there is reason to remain sceptical given the number of times over the last two years news about a Greek rescue deal moved the market in exactly the same way; euro positive on the rumour, retracement on the fact,” he said. 03 Februari 2012: Breaking News U.S. Payrolls Rise 243,000, Jobless Rate Drops to 8.3% —————————————————— Yunani-Portugal Angkat Rupiah Oleh: Ahmad Munjin Pasar Modal – Kamis, 2 Februari 2012 | 16:56 WIB INILAHCOM, Jakarta – Kurs rupiah di pasar spot valas antar bank Jakarta, Kamis (2/2) ditutup menguat 35 poin (0,38%) ke level 8.940/8.960 per dolar AS dari posisi kemarin 8.975/8.985. Analis senior Monex Investindo Futures Zulfirman Basir mengatakan, penguatan rupiah hari ini salah satunya dipicu oleh harapan pasar terhadap pemulihan ekonomi global. Harapa ini muncul seiring membaiknya indikator manufaktur dari berbagai negara yang dirilis kemarin dari China, AS, dan Eropa. Semalam, lanjut Firman, PMI Manufacturing Index AS dirilis mengalami kenaikan ke level 54,1 dari sebelumnya 53,9 meskipun lebih rendah dari prediksi 54,5. “Karena itu, sepanjang perdagangan rupiah mencapai level terkuatnya 8.870 dan 8.940 sebagai level terlemahnya dari posisi pembukaan di level yang sama, 8.940,” katanya kepada INILAH.COM, di Jakarta, Kamis (2/2). Sebelumnya, kata Firman, PMI Manufacturing Index China dirilis di level 50,5 dari sebelumnya 50,3 atau di atas angka prediksi 49,5. Begitu juga dengan manufaktur Eropa yang secara keseluruhan dirilis naik jadi 48,8 dari sebelumnya 48,7 dan angka prediksi di level yang sama. Begitu juga dengna indeks manufaktur Jerman yang dirilis naik di level 51 dari sebelumnya 50,9 dan prediksi di level yang sama (50,9). Manufaktur Inggris dirilis naik signifikan ke level 52,1 dari sbelumnya 49,7 dan prediksi 50. Terlabih lagi, penguatan rupiah juga mendapat dukungan dari hasil lelang obligasi Portugal yang cukup bagus meskipun investor cemas dengan potensi Portugal mengikuti jejak Yunani seiring bailout yang kedua. Dari lelang obligasi, Portugal berhasil meraup dana sebesar 1,5 miliar euro. Yield obligasi dengan tenor 6 bulan turun ke level 4,463% dari sebelumnya 4,74%. “Ini merupakan penurunan angka yang signifikan sehingga berpengaruh positif ke market,” timpal Firman. Di sisi lain, kata dia, ada harapan Yunani dapat mencapai kesepakatan debt swap-nya dalam beberapa hari ke depan. “Terutama dengan rincian kesepakatan yang cukup mendekati keinginan Eropa meskipun tidak begitu positif bagi kreditor swasta,” tuturnya. Berdasarkan rumor yang beredar, Firman memaparkan, para kreditor swasta sudah menyepakati yield obligasi Yunani yang mereka pegang sebesar 3,6% mendekatai keinginan Uni Eropa dan Athena sebesar 3,5%. “Bunga ini sebenarnya cukup rendah bagi sektor swasta tapi tidak terlalu buruk mengingat bunga tersebut dapat meningkat kalau ekonomi Yunani bisa tumbuh. Tapi, dalam dua tahun ke depan, ekonomi Yunani belum akan pulih,” imbuhnya. Alhasil, dolar AS turun terhadap mayoritas mata uang utama termasuk terhadap euro (mata uang gabungan negara-negara Eropa). Indeks dolar AS turun ke level 78,906 dari sebelumnya 78,922. “Terhadap euro, dolar AS ditransaksikan melemah ke level US$1,3152 dari sebelumnya US$1,3160 per euro,” imbuh Firman. Keuangan Paling Awal Terkena Dampak Krisis | Erlangga Djumena | Selasa, 31 Januari 2012 | 08:10 WIB JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com — Pertemuan Forum Ekonomi Dunia di Davos, Swiss, yang baru berlalu, memperkirakan, krisis utang zona euro dan krisis Amerika Serikat masih akan berlanjut hingga tahun depan. Badai krisis menghadang, bahkan bisa memengaruhi kondisi ekonomi dunia, termasuk Indonesia. Sektor keuangan dan perbankan yang paling cepat kena dampaknya. Kepala Ekonom Bank Mandiri Destry Damayanti mengatakan, volatilitas sektor keuangan membuat perbankan dan keuangan di Indonesia akan mengalami dampak kuatnya krisis itu lebih awal. ”Bukan akibat sentimen, melainkan akibat ketatnya likuiditas,” kata Destry kepada Kompas di Jakarta, Senin (30/1/2012). Selama beberapa waktu lalu, penyaluran kredit dalam dollar AS cukup agresif. Alasannya, kredit dollar AS lebih murah dengan biaya dana yang lebih rendah. Namun, nanti tidak akan seperti itu lagi karena likuiditas, khususnya dollar AS, sangat terbatas. ”Hal itu terutama bagi bank asing dan joint venture (usaha patungan) yang selama ini memperoleh dollar AS dari perusahaan induk,” papar Destry. Dollar AS akan susah diperoleh. Bahkan, jika ada, nilai tukarnya akan tinggi. Akibatnya, suku bunga antarbank menjadi naik. Meski demikian, dana asing tetap akan mencari tempat investasi yang paling aman dengan imbal hasil lumayan. Indonesia, dengan peringkat layak investasi dari lembaga pemeringkat Fitch dan Moody’s, dinilai masih menjanjikan dan lebih baik ketimbang negara lain. ”Yang penting, pemerintah dan Bank Indonesia (BI) menjaga kepastian, termasuk nilai tukar rupiah dan Surat Utang Negara (SUN),” kata Destry. Saat ini, menurut Destry, sekitar 30 persen SUN dimiliki asing. Di pasar saham, sekitar 65 persen kapitalisasi pasar dikuasai asing. Akhir pekan lalu di Surabaya, Gubernur BI Darmin Nasution mengemukakan langkah BI untuk terus membangun dan menjaga kepercayaan pemilik dana terhadap Indonesia, misalnya mengenai surat berharga negara (SBN). ”Jika pasar SBN lebih baik, orang akan masuk ke pasar ritel dan investasi jangka panjang. Tidak akan berpikir ke deposito lagi,” kata Darmin. Dengan mendorong SBN semakin baik, minat investor lokal untuk masuk pasar investasi obligasi akan semakin tinggi. Selanjutnya, hal itu akan mengurangi porsi asing pada SBN yang cukup tinggi, sekitar 30 persen. ”Porsi asing 30 persen itu cukup tinggi. Kalau di negara lain, porsi asing hanya sekitar 10-12 persen,” kata Darmin. (IDR) bumi2009fans

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February 2, 2012February 18, 2012

37 Minutes

alamat palsu: recovery (4) Can you hear me now? The Fed makes its views loud and clear Jan 28th 2012 | Washington, dc | from the print edition JAPAN holds the modern record for years spent with interest rates at zero; they were on the floor from 2001 to 2006. America is on track to break that record. Having cut its short-term rate to near zero in late 2008, the Federal Reserve said on January 25th it will probably stay there “at least through late 2014”, more than a year longer than its previous guidance. On the same day the Fed for the first time published projections of the year individual members of the Federal Open Market Committee, its main policymaking body, expect the federal-funds rate to start rising and the path it would follow over the next three years. The median forecast for a rise in interest rates is 2014 (see chart) but the accompanying statement implies it will probably be later. The Fed also took the long-awaited step of announcing an explicit inflation target—something that many other central banks adopted years ago and that the Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, has long advocated. The central bank said it prefers inflation of 2%, also the target (or the midpoint in a target range) of the British, Canadian, Swedish and Israeli central banks. Mr Bernanke characterised these steps as a way to make monetary policy more transparent and predictable, and therefore more effective. But the practical consideration is that the Fed needs new ways to kick-start economic growth. Promising lower rates for longer is one way to do this, because it will drive bond yields lower. Some officials have argued that the Fed could better steer private-sector expectations with a framework that more explicitly committed it to lower unemployment or higher output. The Fed did not go that far but the inflation target (a word the Fed’s official documents didn’t use but Mr Bernanke did in a subsequent press conference) will help in two ways. First, 2% is at the high end of the range that officials previously considered acceptable. Higher inflation implies lower, and thus more stimulative, real interest rates. Second, markets previously thought the Fed was so focused on inflation that it would tighten as soon as it topped 2%, no matter how high unemployment was. Mr Bernanke dispelled that notion by emphasising the Fed’s equal attention to unemployment. Should inflation overshoot 2% while the economy is unacceptably weak, the Fed will take its time about bringing it back down. The increased transparency is helping. Since the Fed committed itself in August to two years of near-zero rates, the ten-year Treasury yield has fluctuated around 2% despite a run of betterthan-expected economic news. The yield dropped on news of the Fed’s new projections, before rising back up again. But this flurry of activity still may not be enough. The Fed actually lowered its projections for economic growth to between 2.2% and 2.7% in 2012; it projects growth of 2.8-3.2% in 2013. Unemployment, now 8.5%, is seen edging below 8% only by the end of 2013. Inflation, meanwhile, will be at or below the new target of 2%. With unemployment too high and inflation still weak, more monetary stimulus is easily justified. Mr Bernanke left the door open to that option. The odds are that he will walk through it. A deal, but to what end? Jan 31st 2012, 0:18 by The Economist | Brussels BY THE standards of past summits, European leaders finished early—shortly before 10pm on January 30th. And by the acrimonious standards of past gatherings, notably last month’s bustup with Britain, this event was uneventful, even amicable. Agreement was reached on the fiscal compact, the new treaty to toughen budget rules, in record time: less than two months. A final row between France and Poland over who gets to attend which summits was resolved with a complicated compromise. This involves variable configurations of meetings involving 17 countries (the euro zone), 23 (the largely-forgotten Euro-Plus Pact, 25 (the signatories of the fiscal compact), 27 (all EU member states, still in charge of the single market) and 28 (involving soon-to-join Croatia). It shows that, at the very least, European leaders can negotiate rapidly when they have the political will to do so—and when the British and the Czechs decide to step aside. Whether electorates will be quite so quick to shackle themselves to Germanic fiscal rules is another matter. But did the leaders achieve anything useful to stem the crisis in the latest of their interminable summits? Their compact—now called the “treaty on stability, co-ordination and governance in the Economic and Monetary Union”, has as its main aim the imposition of balanced-budget rules on members. This may be a useful discipline in good times. But many worry that, at a time of widespread crisis, such pro-cyclical rules risk imposing too much austerity too widely, thus darkening the spectre of recession and making it even harder to balance budgets. This may explain why leaders suddenly want to be seen talking about their plan (declaration is here in PDF) for growth and jobs, particularly in tackling the problem of youth unemployment. Nevertheless, Angela Merkel, the German chancellor who had pushed hard for the treaty, hailed it as a great success. Many others, however, dismiss the compact with so much faint praise. “It is an important distraction”, says one diplomat. “It has gone from damaging to merely useless,” says a member of the European Parliament. Even Mario Monti, these days everybody’s favourite Italian, judged the compact little more than “a decorative songbird”. By contrast the two issues that could affect the course of the euro-zone debt crisis in the coming weeks—the fate of Greece and the possibility of creating a bigger firewall—were for the most part ignored or relegated to side-meetings. With Greece and its private creditors still negotiating the scale of haircuts to be imposed on bondholders, this may have been too delicate a time for leaders to discuss Greece. A statement from the euro zone says little that is new. Moreover, Mrs Merkel was keen to dampen emotions after her officials floated the idea of placing the country under a commissar with the power to reject Greek budgets. When asked about such a prospect, Mrs Merkel expressed “frustration” with Greece’s lack of compliance with its austerity-and-reform programme, but backed away from imposing such a draconian loss of sovereignty on Greece. President Nicolas Sarkozy of France, for his part, said “there is no question of placing Greece under tutelage.” All leaders of the euro zone are insisting that forcing private creditors to take a hit on Greek bonds constitutes a “unique” event, for fear of causing contagion. But spreads on Portuguese bonds are rising to alarming levels, and the outlook for Italy and Spain is still wobbly. “An inability to tackle a problem the size of Greece inspires little confidence in the ability of the EU to tackle Italy and Spain,” says Sony Kapoor, head of Re-Define, a financial think-tank in Brussels. Germany parried demands, from Mr Monti and others, to enlarge the firewall by merging the existing temporary European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the permanent new European Stability Mechanism (ESM). This would enlarge the fund from €500 billion ($659 billion) to €750 billion. Mrs Merkel said the matter should be discussed in March, as decided in last December’s summit. The British have decided not to be awkward about the compact, despite the falling-out at the previous summit, where Britain threatened to veto a change to the EU’s treaties unless it were able to secure greater protection from financial-services legislation. The stalemate forced the other 26 countries to negotiate the compact outside the EU treaties (with Britain sitting in as an observer). Mr Cameron is under pressure from Eurosceptic backbenchers to wage legal warfare to prevent signatories to the pact from using EU institutions, such as the European Commission and the European Court of Justice. “We will only take action if our national interests are threatened. And I made clear today that we will be watching this closely,” said Mr Cameron. Nevertheless, Mr Sarkozy and Mr Cameron are still sparring. The French president’s barb in a television interview a day earlier, when he mockingly said that Britain had “no industry left”, prompted Mr Cameron to rattle off a list of great British car companies—among them Honda, Toyota and Nissan (all Japanese). He said he relished the prospect of French banks moving operations across the Channel to London if Mr Sarkozy pressed ahead with his promise to impose a tax on financial transactions unilaterally. Perhaps the most interesting dynamic was between France and Germany ahead of the French presidential elections in April and May. Mrs Merkel said that she would campaign for the reelection of Mr Sarkozy, saying he had done the same for her in the past. But she said she would not be worried if his opponent, François Hollande, who is leading opinion polls, were to win —even though he wants to renegotiate the fiscal compact and has blocked Mr Sarkozy’s attempt to enshrine a golden rule in the constitution. Asked if she could envisage having to take France to court for failure to adopt a balanced-budget rule, as provided for by the compact, Mrs Merkel said: “I cannot imagine taking legal action against France because I cannot imagine that France will not institute a golden rule.” BRUSSELS, Jan 31, 2012 (AFP) EU leaders closed one chapter in the debt crisis Monday with a German-driven treaty meant to end deficits — then launched a race to resolve Greece’s bailout woes. European Union president Herman Van Rompuy called after for a new deal with Athens “by the end of the week” on the conditions underpinning a long-delayed second bailout for Greece. Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos went immediately into a post-EU summit huddle with a top official from his old employers at the European Central Bank (ECB) and senior EU officials. “It’s too early now to say we need some extra funding,” Papademos said early Tuesday. “Our goal is to avert it.” In October last year, Greece was promised a second bailout of 130 billion euros ($171 billion) if it could convince private investors to write off 100 billion euros of debt. Despite a change of government late last year, new conditions have not been met and the ECB and other national central banks or EU institutions are now being nudged to agree their own write-downs. With Greece facing a big bill for bond redemptions on March 20, EU partners are on edge amid unrelenting fears of default. Wall Street was gripped with “renewed default concerns towards Greece and Portugal,” investment analysts Charles Schwab said. Eurozone partners’ handling of Greece took a new turn at the weekend when Germany asked the other governments in the currency area to put Athens under control of EU guardians. “There cannot be any talk of putting any nation under wardenship,” said French President Nicolas Sarkozy. “It would not be reasonable, democratic and efficient.” Greece’s education minister called the idea “the product of a sick imagination,” and although Sweden and others showed sympathy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel did not push this plan further on this occasion. For her, though, it is about “how Europe can help Greece accomplish the tasks given to it.” The EU focus on bailouts was supposed to give way at Monday’s summit to a renewed push to stimulate growth and create jobs across European economies. This idea even saw tentative moves to place an ambitious free-trade deal with the United States on the coming agenda. But at its root was the announcement that 25 of 27 countries had adopted the new pact on budgetary discipline. The Czech Republic joined Britain on the outside looking in, but a threat by Poland to withdraw evaporated after France gave ground in an argument about the influence of non-euro countries on eurozone summits. Pushed by Germany and the ECB, the treaty — to be formally signed in March — will require governments to introduce laws on balanced budgets and impose near automatic sanctions on countries that violate deficit rules. Only those countries that sign up will be able to access bailout aid from a new rescue fund whose legal basis was also ticked off at the talks. It will enter force after 12 nations ratify it. The pact is a “first step toward a fiscal union,” said European Central Bank chief Mario Draghi amid hopes among some governments that the pact will prompt the ECB to step up a controversial bond purchase programme. With Italy and Spain still fragile, EU leaders will discuss in March whether to add half as much again to a new rescue fund’s initial 500-billion-euro size, amid wider moves to beef up IMF resources. “We are getting the feeling that there is a shift in Germany’s position and I am optimistic,” said Italian premier Mario Monti. Leaders began their summit day by landing on a military airstrip to beat a Belgian general strike that grounded most public transport in protest at a new round of EU-ordered austerity. Leaders, some facing imminent re-election campaigning, must contend with an unemployment rate averaging 10 percent across the 17-nation eurozone. European Commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso said 82 billion euros of unspent EU funds could kick-start growth and job creation — but with the catch that money is matched locally. He met earlier with premier Mariano Rajoy of Spain, where nearly half of all under-25s are out of work, to talk about a shortfall in meeting deficit reduction targets there. Madrid plunged quicker into what Brussels deems a “moderate” recession looming large over Europe. Among ideas adopted by the summit for boosting growth in Europe, there were calls to lower the tax burden on employers to get more people hired, and give all young people guaranteed options in work, training or study. However, a summit statement concluded: “There are no quick fixes. Our action must be determined, persistent and broad-based.” Europe signs up to German-led fiscal pact By Julien Toyer and Paul Taylor BRUSSELS | Mon Jan 30, 2012 8:00pm EST (Reuters) – Chancellor Angela Merkel cemented her political ascendancy in Europe Monday when 25 out of 27 EU states agreed to a German-inspired pact for stricter budget discipline, even as they struggled to rekindle growth from the ashes of austerity. Only Britain and the Czech Republic refused to sign a fiscal compact in March that will impose quasi-automatic sanctions on countries that breach European Union budget deficit limits and will enshrine balanced budget rules in national law. The accord was eagerly greeted by the European Central Bank which has long pressed euro zone governments to put their houses in order. “It is the first step toward a fiscal union. It certainly will strengthen confidence in the euro area,” ECB President Mario Draghi said. Officially, the half-day summit focused on a strategy to revive growth and create jobs at a time when governments across Europe are having to cut public spending and raise taxes to tackle mountains of debt. But differences over the limits of austerity, and Greece’s unfinished debt restructuring negotiations, hampered efforts to convey a more optimistic message that Europe is getting on top of its debt crisis. Merkel told a news conference the agreements on the fiscal pact and a permanent rescue fund for the euro zone were a “small but fine step on the path to restoring confidence.” French President Nicolas Sarkozy said he expected a deal on reducing Greece’s debt to private bondholders within days and he believed independent European institutions – a clear reference to the ECB – would help meet a funding gap. Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos said he hoped to reach a deal both with private creditors over restructuring 200 billion euros of debt and on conditions tied to a second bailout by its international lenders by the end of the week. “Significant progress has been made in talks about private sector involvement … We are seeking to conclude negotiations with the troika by the end of the week,” Papademos told reporters after he and his finance minister met the heads of EU institutions. Until there is a deal, EU leaders cannot move forward with a second, 130-billion-euro rescue program for Athens, which they originally pledged at a summit last October. Without it, Athens faces default in March when huge bond repayments fall due. The EU leaders also agreed that a 500-billion-euro European Stability Mechanism will enter into force in July, a year earlier than planned, to back heavily indebted states. Europe is already under pressure from the United States, China, the International Monetary Fund and some of its own members to increase the size of the financial firewall, but Merkel has refused to consider the issue before March. EURO “MESS” Many economists doubt the wisdom of so severely restricting deficit spending, and EU diplomats say the fiscal compact was mostly a political gesture to calm German voters angry at repeated euro zone bailouts and to restore market confidence. “To write into law a Germanic view of how one should run an economy and that essentially makes Keynesianism illegal is not something we would do,” a British official said. There was no repetition of last month’s confrontation between British Prime Minister David Cameron and Sarkozy when Cameron vetoed efforts to amend the EU treaty to tighten euro zone budget discipline. But the British and French leaders sniped at each other at separate news conferences while professing mutual respect. Cameron told reporters: “Our national interest is that these countries get on and sort out the mess that is the euro.” German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that although Cameron had shown no sign of relenting in his opposition to treaty change, the new pact could be easily slotted into EU law at a later date and she expected it would be within five years. Financial markets fretted over the lack of tangible progress in the Greek debt talks and gloom about Europe’s economic outlook. The risk premium on southern European government bonds rose while the euro and stocks fell. Highlighting those fears, Spain’s economy contracted in the last quarter of 2011 for the first time in two years and looks set to slip into a long recession. France halved its 2012 growth forecast to a mere 0.5 percent in a potentially ominous sign for Sarkozy’s troubled bid for re-election in May. But the president said Paris could achieve its deficit reduction target without further savings. Italy, rushing through sweeping economic reforms under new Prime Minister Mario Monti, was rewarded with a significant fall in its borrowing costs at an auction of 10- and 5-year bonds, despite two-notch downgrades of its credit rating by Standard & Poor’s and Fitch this month. But Portugal’s slide toward becoming the next Greece – needing a second bailout to avoid chaotic bankruptcy – gathered pace as banks raised the cost of insuring government bonds against default and insisted the money be paid up front instead of over several years. The yield spread on 10-year Portuguese bonds over safe haven German Bunds topped 15 percentage points for the first time in the euro era. The ESM was meant to replace the European Financial Stability Facility, a temporary fund that has been used to bail out Ireland and Portugal. But pressure is mounting to combine the resources of the two funds to create a super-firewall of 750 billion euros ($1 trillion). The IMF says if Europe puts up more of its own money, that will convince others to give more resources to the IMF, boosting its crisis-fighting abilities and improving market sentiment. Germany has so far resisted such a step. Merkel has said she will not discuss the issue of the ESM/EFSF’s ceiling until the next EU summit in March. Meanwhile, financial markets will continue to worry that there may not be sufficient rescue funds available to help the likes of Italy and Spain if they run into renewed debt funding problems. The EU will consider how to deploy 82 billion euros of unspent funds from the EU’s 2007-2013 budget in an attempt to boost growth and employment. Some will be recycled toward job creation, especially among the young. But with no new public money available for a stimulus, the leaders focused mainly on promoting structural reforms such as loosening labor market regulation, cutting red tape for business and promoting innovation. ($1 = 0.7615 euros) (Additional reporting by Julien Toyer, Harry Papachristou, John O’Donnell, Matt Falloon and Robin Emmott in Brussels, Marius Zaharia, William James and Jeremy Gaunt in London, Axel Bugge in Lisbon; Writing by Paul Taylor, editing by Mike Peacock) Some G20 countries soften stance on Europe: sources ReutersReuters – 34 minutes ago By Francesca Landini and Luis Rojas MILAN/MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Some of the world’s biggest economies want to move quickly on a cash injection for the International Monetary Fund to help rescue the euro zone, but hardliners may still scupper an early deal to boost the fund’s war chest, G20 sources said on Friday. Officials from the Group of 20 leading economies are engaged in what one called a ‘chicken and egg’ game as they work toward a possible deal on boosting the IMF’s firepower at a meeting of the bloc’s finance ministers and central bank governors in Mexico City in one month’s time. Emerging market powers Brazil and China are among the countries keen to pursue the two-track plan pushed by the current G20 president Mexico to work on additional IMF funding simultaneously with extra steps from Europe, one G20 official told Reuters, rather than insisting on European action upfront. “There was a much more cooperative sentiment between G20 countries than in recent meetings,” said the official, referring last week’s discussions between G20 deputies in Mexico City. “Some emerging countries are more open to consider contributions to increase IMF resources in parallel with euro zone efforts, so they are open to make commitments to increase IMF resources in the next few weeks,” the source added. Mexican central bank governor Agustin Carstens said a consensus was building on boosting IMF resources to help European countries and others that need aid. But the February 25-26 meeting deadline may prove ambitious, given the United States’ insistence that Europe boost its own crisis shield further before any pledges to the IMF – which estimates it needs $600 billion more to limit the fallout. “Our view is that the only way Europe is going to be successful in holding this together is for them to bring a stronger firewall,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “If Europe is able and willing to do that, we believe the IMF is ready to play a constructive role.” Canada is also taking a tough public stance, although a G20 official from another country said Ottawa was becoming more conciliatory, along with Japan. “Canada and Japan are more flexible than in the past,” the second official said. “It could be a bit more difficult with the USA, although they too have softened their position, but it’s still early in the game.” STANDOFF FEARS Europe, for its part, supports the two-track approach, but officials are concerned that Germany’s reluctance so far to back increased funding for the euro zone’s own rescue fund may fuel a standoff at the G20. Germany has insisted that the safety net should not exceed 500 billion euros, but officials close to the G20 talks estimate that a further 230 billion to 250 billion euros is needed. “It is important that we should not let this be locked between the Americans and the Germans, or the IMF and the Germans, so that nobody would get any pretext or excuse to not do their part,” one senior euro zone official said. A G20 official from a large emerging market economy said Europe accepted the need to put in more resources but “won’t say it for fear of” Germany. “They will get to that point because they know not one cent of this IMF money will be made available unless they come up with their side … the majority view is that we move in parallel we have things ready, but we don’t have to deploy it until the Europeans have gotten their act together.” European Union leaders will discuss increasing the bloc’s permanent rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), on March 1-2, just days after the February meeting in Mexico, with the timing creating extra difficulty for policymakers. “If the parallel approach wins inside the G20, a deal on increasing IMF resources could be clinched by the G20 meeting in February,” the initial G20 source said. “Otherwise, the G20 will work on reaching a deal by next April in Washington, after an increase of ESM firepower is signed in March among euro zone countries.” G20 finance ministers are due to meet in Washington on April 19-20 ahead of a leaders summit in Mexico’s Los Cabos on June 18-19. Countries keen on the parallel approach are Brazil, Australia, Japan, Indonesia, China, Indonesia and South Korea, the source said. A senior Brazilian government official confirmed Brazil was keen to push the two aims simultaneously, but said a commitment to a bigger ESM would definitely smooth the way. “If the Europeans increase (funding to) the ESM then they increase the chances of additional resources to the IMF in support,” he said. The extra funding may come in the form of bilateral loans between individual countries and the IMF or an increase in countries’ quotas, which could also give emerging economies more say in how the fund is managed. (Additional reporting by Lesley Wroughton in Washington, Alonso Soto in Brasilia, Paul Carrel in Davos and Jan Strupczewski in Brussels; Writing by Krista Hughes; Editing by Andrea Evans, Gary Crosse) Ketua The Federal Reserve (bank sentral AS) Ben S. Bernanke mengatakan, The Fed mempertimbangkan pembelian aset tambahan untuk menggenjot pertumbuhan. The Fed mempertahankan komitmen untuk menjaga suku bunga tetap rendah sampai 2014. “Para pembuat kebijakan siap untuk memberikan akomodasi moneter lebih lanjut jika lapangan kerja tidak menunjukkan kemajuan sesuai level maksimum yang kami targetkan,” kata Bernanke, Rabu (25/1) waktu Washington. Dia menambahkan, pembelian obligasi adalah salah satu pilihan yang tersedia. Saham dan pasar obligasi naik The Fed mempertahankan komitmen untuk menjaga biaya pinjaman tetap rendah setidaknya hingga pertengahan 2013. The Fed memangkas proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi dan kenaikan harga tahun ini dan 2013 serta menargetkan inflasi jangka panjang sebesar 2%. “Apa yang mereka lakukan adalah menyiapkan meja untuk beberapa pelonggaran moneter tambahan,” kata Scott Minerd, Chief Investment Officer Guggenheim Partners LLC. Indeks Standard & Poor’s 500 naik 0,9% menjadi 1.326.06 pada pukul 16.07 waktu New York. Imbal hasil untuk obligasi bertenor 5 tahun turun 10 basis poin menjadi 0,8% setelah sempat menyentuh rekor terendah 0,76%. http://internasional.kontan.co.id/news/the-fed-pertimbangkan-pembelian-aset-tambahan (http://internasional.kontan.co.id/news/the-fed-pertimbangkan-pembelian-aset-tambahan)

Sumber : KONTAN.CO.ID Washington (ANTARA News) – Federal Reserve pada Rabu memangkas prakiraannya untuk pertumbuhan ekonomi AS tahun ini dan berikutnya, mengutip pertumbuhan lebih lambat dalam investasi bisnis dan sektor perumahan masih depresi. The Fed memproyeksikan pertumbuhan untuk tahun ini dalam kisaran 2,2-2,7 persen, dan 2,8-3,2 persen pada 2013, lapor AFP. Dalam proyeksi ekonomi November, bank sentral telah memperkirakan pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto 2,5-2,9 persen untuk 2012, dan 3,0-3,5 persen untuk 2013. Pengatur kebijakan Komite Pasar Terbuka Federal juga menetapkan target inflasi pada 2,0 persen, menandakan tingkat kenaikan harga di mana pihaknya bisa mulai memperketat kebijakan moneter. “Mengkomunikasikan tujuan inflasi ini dengan jelas kepada publik membantu menjaga ekspektasi inflasi jangka panjang tertanam secara kuat,” kata FOMC, karena pihaknya mengatakan diharapkan untuk mempertahankan suku bunga utamanya mendekati nol selama tiga tahun lagi. The Fed mengatakan itu adalah “komitmen kuat” untuk mandat hukum dari Kongres “mendorong kerja maksimum, harga stabil, dan suku bunga jangka panjang moderat.” Setelah perbaikan baru-baru ini di pasar tenaga kerja yang bermasalah, FOMC menurunkan proyeksi tingkat pengangguran menjadi 8,2-8,5 persen untuk kuartal keempat. Perkiraan November adalah untuk tingkat 8,5-8,7 persen. Tingkat pengangguran telah jatuh selama empat bulan berturut-turut, menjadi 8,5 persen pada Desember, di tengah pemulihan rapuh dari resesi yang mendalam. Perkiraan inflasi juga pada atau di bawah tingkat target baru untuk tiga tahun berikutnya.

http://www.antaranews.com/berita/294477/federal-reserve-as-pangkas-prakiraan-pertumbuhan (http://www.antaranews.com/berita/294477/federal-reserve-as-pangkas-prakiraan-pertumbuhan) Sumber : ANTARANEWS.COM Dow Average Rallies to Highest Level Since May By Rita Nazareth – Jan 25, 2012 U.S. stocks rose, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the highest level since May, as the Federal Reserve signaled low rates through at least late 2014 and didn’t rule out bond purchases to bolster the economy. A measure of commodity shares in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 1.6 percent after gold rallied as record-low rates may boost its appeal as a hedge against inflation. Banks had the biggest drop in the S&P 500 among 24 groups as the industry may face pressure on margins from the Fed’s policy on rates. Apple (AAPL) Inc. climbed 6.2 percent to an all-time high as profit more than doubled. Textron Inc. (TXT), the maker of Cessna planes, surged 15 percent after forecasting higher-than-estimated earnings. The S&P 500 added 0.9 percent to 1,326.06 at 4 p.m. New York time, after dropping 0.5 percent earlier. The Dow gained 83.10 points, or 0.7 percent, to 12,758.85. The Nasdaq-100 Index rose 1.3 percent to 2,465.66, the highest since 2001. “The Fed is saying that money will stay easy and the cost of money will stay low,” Madelynn Matlock, who helps oversee about $14.5 billion at Huntington Asset Advisors in Cincinnati, said in a telephone interview. “The ability for businesses to find the money they need to grow and for consumers to find the money they need to buy things is going to be easier. That makes the growth path a little simpler.” Benchmark gauges reversed losses as the Fed extended its previous pledge to keep rates low at least until the middle of 2013 as more than two years of economic growth have failed to push unemployment below 8.5 percent. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said central bankers are still debating additional asset purchases. Earnings Season Investors also watched earnings reports. Of the 112 S&P 500 companies that reported results since Jan. 9, 74 posted per- share earnings that beat projections, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Earnings probably grew 3.4 percent for S&P 500 companies in the fourth quarter, the data show. The projection has fallen from 6.2 percent at the end of last year. The Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index of companies most- dependent on economic growth added 1 percent. The Dow Jones Transportation Average advanced 1.5 percent. All 10 groups in the S&P 500 gained. Gold producers rallied as the metal climbed to a six-week high. Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM), the largest U.S. gold producer, jumped 4.8 percent to $60.25. Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX), the world’s largest publicly traded copper producer, climbed 4.8 percent to $46.08. Apple Rallies Apple rallied 6.2 percent, the most since May 2010, to $446.66. The company sold 37 million iPhones in the period ended Dec. 31, with customers snapping up the new 4S model that went on sale in October, a week after the death of co-founder Steve Jobs. Record revenue vaulted Apple ahead of Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) as the world’s biggest computer maker by sales and quelled concern that the company’s allure may dim as it embarks on a new era with Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook at the helm. Textron surged 15 percent, the most in the S&P 500, to $24.76. Chief Executive Officer Scott Donnelly is working to leverage the company’s businesses with measures such as having Cessna and Bell share overseas service centers and sales forces. Textron is winding down its finance unit, which struggled during the recession. The Bloomberg U.S. Airlines Index (BUSAIRL) of 11 companies jumped 4.5 percent. Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) and US Airways Group Inc. (LCC) reported fourth-quarter profits that topped analysts’ projections. Delta Air climbed 6.2 percent to $9.96. US Airways rallied 17 percent to $7.52. M&A Deal Illumina Inc. (ILMN) surged 46 percent to $55.15. Roche Holding AG offered $5.7 billion in a hostile bid for Illumina to bolster sales of gene-mapping equipment and services. Roche proposed paying $44.50 a share, 18 percent more than yesterday’s close. Walter Energy Inc. (WLT) gained 3.9 percent to $70.14. The company may finally lure buyers willing to bet on a recovery in coal prices with the industry’s cheapest stock. After losing almost half its value in the past year, the producer of steelmaking coal sold for 9.3 times earnings this week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That was less than any North American coal-mining company with $1 billion in market capitalization. Walter Energy, which bought Western Coal Corp. for $5.3 billion in April, is an attractive target because it produces high-grade steelmaking coal, Brean Murray Carret & Co. said. A buyer could spend double Walter Energy’s closing price of $67.54 a share yesterday and still get the company for less relative to earnings than any coal takeover in the past year, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Banks (S5BANKX) Decline Banks had the biggest decline in the S&P 500 among 24 industries, falling 0.3 percent. Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. (C) are among lenders that may find it harder to boost profits and capital after the Fed’s pledge on low rates. Bank of America rose 0.8 percent to $7.35. Citigroup added 0.2 percent to $29.96. “This is a very dovish Fed,” David Kelly, who helps oversee $394 billion as chief market strategist for JPMorgan Funds in New York, said in a telephone interview. “It’s an attempt to push down long-term interest rates. They are pushing the rates down to a level where consumers should find them very attractive, but banks will find them very unattractive.” Corning Inc. (GLW) tumbled 11 percent, the biggest decline in the S&P 500, to $13.05. The largest maker of glass for flat-panel televisions said glass prices contributed to a 53 percent drop in fourth-quarter profit and are still sinking. Xerox, WellPoint Xerox Corp. (XRX) slumped 9.9 percent to $7.81. The provider of printers and business services gave earnings forecasts that trailed some analysts’ estimates as Europe weakens. WellPoint Inc. (WLP) decreased 4.8 percent to $66.10. The largest U.S. health insurer by enrollment forecast 2012 earnings and reported fourth-quarter profit that were less than analyst estimates on higher medical costs. “It’s going to be a mediocre earnings season,” Russ Koesterich, the San Francisco-based global chief investment strategist for the IShares unit of BlackRock Inc., said in a phone interview. His firm oversees $3.5 trillion as the world’s largest asset manager. “We’re not going to see robust growth this year and this is being reflected in corporate outlooks.” bloomberg 25 Jan 2012: Germany, Europe’s dominant economic power, signaled on Jan. 23 that it might back an increase in the region’s overall rescue capacity to 750 billion euros ($983 billion) from 500 billion euros. Stockbroker: Economy would have collapsed without ECB interventions Published 23 January 2012 Europe’s economy would have ‘vanished into the underworld’ had the European Central Bank not intervened in the eurozone debt crisis, says stockbroker Dirk Müller. He argues that a European ratings agency would ease the crisis and that the current combination of loans and austerity in Greece will lead to default. Dirk Müller is a German stockbroker and best-selling author. Also known as Mr Dax, he is one of the most familiar faces on Frankfurt’s stock exchange. He spoke with EurActiv Germany’s Daniel Tost. After France and Austria were stripped of their AAA ratings, S&P also cut the European Financial Stability Facility’s rating by one notch to AA+. EFSF Chief Executive Officer Klaus Regling and Eurogroup head Jean-Claude Juncker immediately issued statements saying the decision would not reduce the EFSF’s €440 billion lending capacity. Does the EFSF have enough firepower? The fund is ready for the very urgent payments. Should something larger become necessary – we are talking about Spain and Italy – the fund would of course not be prepared. It was said that one had to get money from somewhere in order to leverage the thing and in order to motivate others to throw in money – a lot of money. This has not been successful in the past. This move now is not particularly helpful in improving that. The fund received solid demand at its six-month debt sale on Tuesday. Is there a need for an increase in guarantees to the EFSF? The question is: How much money will one need and what’s awaiting us in the next 12 or 24 months? The ESM is going to replace the fund, then we will be talking about different structures. At the moment the fund should be able to deal with things. But either it needs higher liabilities from the AAA states or one has to accept slightly higher interest rates. Although I think that this will be a lesser problem. S&P’s downgrade of nine euro countries has caused widespread criticism. There is talk of a targeted attack on Europe and of a sort of self-promotion of the agency. Is it time for a European rating agency? I think this is absolutely sensible and long overdue. But such a neutral institution that facilitates assessments is actually only useful for private investors or the bulk of investors. We have to be clear about this: the ratings agencies we are now talking about are private American companies. On what grounds banks, even central banks, trust these companies with their own decisions is not comprehensible for me. It is the very own task of banks to assess risks. If you take out a loan as a private person today, banks will X-ray you down to your underwear and assess the risk for themselves. But when it comes to investing billions in bonds, banks just put this inspection into the hands of American companies that have both economically questionable and certainly politically dubious interests, if you look at the structures and the ownerships. Thomas Mayer, chief economist of Deutsche Bank, says that it would actually be better if one would get away from the agencies as a whole and more investors would rely on their own analyses… That I can only underline. Are the downgrades comprehensible in light of the far-reaching reforms in many of the struggling countries in the eurozone? I would agree to the extent that the rating agencies are right in their sceptical view considering national debts. What I am absolutely not pleased about and what raises many questions is the application of double standards. The UK, the US and Japan are seen with completely different eyes than the European states. This is reprehensible. Then there is the timing. One to two years ago the rating agencies themselves called upon the European countries for exactly these reforms. They have taken these steps and the consequence is the agencies saying: What you are doing is really bad and we need to punish this. This is really crossing the Rubicon and one should not surrender to these rating agencies. According to ECB board member Ewald Nowotny, the downgrading came at an inopportune time: the tensions surrounding the debt crisis had recently eased somewhat. Will they be rekindled now? Interestingly, the markets seem to be going numb towards the downgrades. A year ago this move would have caused turmoil. Today it is accepted with a shrug. It is expected and not taken particularly seriously. Immediately afterwards, we saw yields on French bonds even decrease because this sword of Damocles was gone. It is increasingly missing its intended effect. It was a reassuring signal for the markets when the bond auctions of Italy and Spain, which started amidst great fear, went through painlessly – also due to the support of the ECB and the pressure of the Italian and Spanish governments on their own banks to buy these bonds. But we have been seeing these downgrades happening at exactly the right moment again and again. One might no longer believe in a coincidence. Does the ECB need a stronger role to resolve the euro debt crisis? The ECB already is playing the “master role”. Without the support of the ECB, we would have vanished into the underworld long ago. It made 500 billion available to the banks, which they immediately parked back at the ECB. Now due to pressure from their governments, they have invested the smallest amounts in government bonds of Italy and Spain, because they are sitting in the same boat and Spain is saying: If you are not buying them, then we are going to drown – and you are going to drown with us. One might say that this is pulling oneself up by the bootstraps. That’s about what is happening with the government bond acquisitions of banks. But without the ECB, we would already be somewhere else. S&P argues that politicians analyse the crisis as a budget crisis or a public debt crisis. The agency believes, however, that a large part of the crisis is due to diverging economic imbalances in the external field, but also to the competitive capabilities of nations. Do you agree? This is correct. We in Europe have created a huge problem with the euro. Every state needs the currency that suits its own performance. We have seen this, when about half a year ago, the Swiss franc was somewhat increased in value by capital flows. Immediately Switzerland’s strong and stable economy was in difficulties, because export trade came under pressure. Citizens drove across the border in droves and bought in Germany. Imbalances in the currencies immediately lead to big shifts in trade flows. In the Swiss example, we could immediately see this on the border and in front of the news cameras. Elsewhere this happens via computer and large contracts between companies. With a currency much too strong for their possibilities, the Greeks cannot build up a business model. Greek exports account for 6% of GNP. These imbalances have been developing for 10 years now. It is not correct to say: The euro has been a success story for 10 years and suddenly problems are arising from nowhere. Different currencies act as a buffer between the different states. If I take out of this buffer, I have a rigid system with still different forces pulling against each other. These build up, and as with an earthquake, what we are seeing now erupts. These tensions have built up for over 10 years and have not arisen only suddenly. Moritz Krämer from S&P says that the so-called power of his industry is also wanted by politicians, because they have wired ratings into the regulations for banks or investors. Is this correct? One can agree in part. I find it incomprehensible why, for example, the decisions by insurance companies whether to purchase bonds or not bonds are based on the ratings of S&P and Moody’s. That the ECB itself even makes its own political decisions based on the judgment of US companies is not at all comprehensible. They seem to put off every thought of whom the agencies belong to, what role they play and what interests they may have. Why these rating agencies are so powerful has another background. The US capital market is the most important and largest capital market in the world. Without this market no big global investor can be active. Everyone depends on this market. In order to sell bonds there, I must allow for a review of a rating agency licenced in the United States. This is American law. This means that as long as any company, bank or state wants to sell its bonds in America – and they all want this, because that is the market where you can make the money – you have to let yourself be rated by an American agency. They decide who gets money and who does not – and if so, at what price. Now the question arises, what sense a European rating agency would make if it were not approved in the US. The probability of a Greek default seems to be increasing. There is disagreement among the central banks of the eurozone about how the monetary authorities should deal with the Greek government bonds on their balance sheets. Is there any solution? I am almost at a loss for words. For two years we have been pumping money into Greece. What is happening now was predicted two years ago. At that time I warned about exactly this kind of development: Pushing more money down Greece’s throat and at the same time imposing these extreme austerity measures. Greece is saving itself into a disaster, the Greek economy will completely collapse and the consequence will be that Greece cannot meet its obligations at all. The tax money that we have made available so far, will be eliminated. What we are doing is bordering on the misappropriation of taxpayers’ money. We should have done this hair-cut for Greece two years ago, taken the country completely off of the capital market, externally financed it and slowly rebuilt the Greek system. Governments allowed the private sector a long time to part with their bonds. The ECB has bought these bonds in a big fashion. But not only the ECB, but also hedge funds. These have also been buying these bonds and have no interest in rescuing Greece. Hedge funds have bought Greek bonds as well as bad-debt insurance in the form of credit default swaps and tell themselves: Now there are two versions. Either Greece goes bankrupt, then I make big money with my insurance. Or we don’t participate in the voluntary debt restructuring, which means we get 100% returned. Hedge funds were provided this business model because of the long manoeuvring. The consequence is that taxpayers now have to pay. One year ago he would have not been involved. One can only say: Thank you very much. bumi2009fans I Am Investor

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