I Am Investor Jl. GLOBAL #1
Author: bumi2009fans di dunia internet dan blog, gw pake beberapa nama seh: jo, ekonomitakserius, bumi2009fans, atawa (simply) gw :)
playboy: recovery, KEWASPADAAN G20 (1) … 061111_130416 sejarah tingkat pertumbuhan GDP Kanada (2001-2015), simak kaitan dengan kondisi ekonomi global (2008-2009: krisis finansial global; 2015: krisis harga minyak n perlambatan ekonomi China)
SINGAPORE–Singapore’s gross domestic product was expectedly flat in the first quarter as the economy held steady with different sectors producing uneven results. There was no change in the GDP for the three months to the end of March on a seasonally adjusted and annualized basis compared with the previous quarter, according to advance estimates by the Ministry of Trade and Industry on Thursday. This compared with a 6.2% increase in the fourth quarter of last year and matched the median forecast of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. The island nation’s economy is estimated to have expanded 1.8% on year in the first quarter, compared with a median 1.7% increase tipped by the economists. GDP had risen 1.8% on year in the fourth quarter. Services output grew 1.9% on year in the three-month period, while the construction sector expanded 6.2%, the data showed. Manufacturing output, however, fell 2.0% on year in the first quarter, after a 6.7% contraction in the previous quarter. Measured over the previous quarter on a seasonally adjusted and annualized basis, manufacturing rebounded by 18.2% in the first quarter after a 4.9% decline in the previous three months. Construction jumped 10.2% on quarter after 6.0% growth in the fourth quarter.
JAKARTA. Jepang tidak memiliki alasan untuk melakukan intervensi di pasar mata uang saat ini untuk menghentikan apresiasi yen, kata kepala perwakilan IMF untuk Jepang, Luc Everaert Menurut Luc, jika tidak ada pergerakan yang luar biasa pada nilai tukar, tak ada alasan bagi Jepang untuk campur tangan saat ini. “Yang lebih penting saat ini adalah Jepang mengadopsi kebijakan dalam negeri untuk memperkuat pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi, serta membiarkan nilai tukar bergerak dengan sendirinya,†katanya seperti yang dikutip Bloomberg, Rabu (14/4/2016). Yen telah menguat 11% sepanjang tahun ini sehingga menghambat upaya Gubernur Haruhiko Kuroda untuk mencapai target inflasi 2% dan menekan daya saing eksportir Jepang. IMF baru saja memangkas proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi untuk Jepang, dan sekarang memprediksi produk domestik bruto hanya meningkat 0,5% tahun ini dan akan terkontraksi pada tahun 2017. Komentar Luc menunjukkan bahwa apappun masalah yang dihadapi Jepang, rencana intervensi dari pemerintah akan direspon dingin oleh para gubernur bank sentral dan menteri keuangan yang dijadwalkan berkumpul di Washington pekan ini. http://market.bisnis.com/read/20160413/93/537516/imf-belum-waktunya-jepang-intervensi-pasar-mata-uang (http://market.bisnis.com/read/20160413/93/537516/imf-belum-waktunya-jepangintervensi-pasar-mata-uang) Sumber : BISNIS.COM INILAHCOM, Washington – Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) memprediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia hanya akan mencapai 3,2 persen pada 2016. Itu turun 0,2 persen dari prediksi Januari 2016, yakni 3,4 persen. Ketua Ekonom IMF Maurice Obstfeld mengatakan dalam konferensi pers tentang Perkiraan Ekonomi Dunia (WEO) di Kantor Pusat IMF di Washington, Amerika Serikat, Selasa pagi waktu setempat, bahwa penurunan prediksi itu merefleksikan kelesuan ekonomi di semua kelompok negara. “Pelambatan tersebut terjadi akibat berlanjutnya tren yang telah kami kemukakan sebelumnya (WEO Januari 2016),” tegas dia. Obstfeld mengatakan tren tersebut terjadi sejak tahun lalu, yakni penjualan tiba-tiba aset berisiko, peningkatan kekhawatiran pasar, penurunan tajam harga minyak dan komoditas lainnya. Berdasarkan perkiraan tersebut, IMF memprediksi pertumbuhan kelompok ekonomi maju turun antara 0,3-0,5 persen, antara lain Amerika Serikat sebesar 2,4 persen, kawasan Euro (Jerman, Prancis, Italia, Spanyol) 1,5 persen, Jepang 0,5 persen, dan negara maju lainnya di luar G7 (AS, Kanada, Prancis, Jerman, Italia, Jepang, Inggris) sebesar 2,1 persen. Sementara itu, untuk kelompok ekonomi tumbuh dan berkembang di wilayah Asia, IMF memprediksi angka pertumbuhan tetap atau naik sedikit antara 0,1-0,2 persen dari perkiraan sebelumnya. Negara-negara dalam kelompok tersebut, yakni hina mencapai 6,5 persen (naik 0,2 persen), India 7,5 persen (tetap) dan ASEAN 5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Filipina, Vietnam, Thailand) 4,8 persen (tetap). Meskipun demikian, Obstfeld memperingatkan bahwa risiko pelambatan akan semakin besar pada negara dengan upah yang stagnan dan kesenjangan ekonomi masyarakat tinggi, tanpa ada kebijakan untuk menutup perbedaan tersebut. “Kesan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi hanya menguntungkan kelompok elit dan pemilik modal akan meluas,” kata dia. IMF mengusulkan tiga kebijakan utama untuk mengatasi kelesuan dan menjaga pertumbuhan ekonom di tengah kelesuan global, yakni melaui pendekatan moneter, fiskal dan struktur ekonomi. Konferensi pers IMF tentang WEO 2016, Selasa, menjadi acara awalan dalam rangkaian Pertemuan Musim Semi IMF-Bank Dunia di Washington, Amerika Serikat 13-17 April 2016. [tar] – See more at: http://ekonomi.inilah.com/read/detail/2287835/imf-prediksi-pertumbuhan-ekonomi-dunia-32-persen#sthash.OGYPTNhJ.dpuf (http://ekonomi.inilah.com/read/detail/2287835/imf-prediksi-pertumbuhan-ekonomi-dunia-32-persen#sthash.OGYPTNhJ.dpuf)
WASHINGTON, KOMPAS.com
– Dana Moneter Internasional atau International Monetary Fund (IMF) memangkas estimasi pertumbuhan ekonomi global
jadi 3,2 persen dari semula 3,4 persen di Januari. Pertumbuhan ini lebih rendah ketimbang estimasi pertumbuhan di Juli dan Oktober tahun lalu. Sementara untuk 2017, estimasi pertumbuhan ekonomi global mencapai 3,5 persen, atau turun 1 persen dibanding estimasi di Januari. IMF memperingatkan adanya risiko dari isolasi politik akibat kemungkinan keluarnya Inggris dari Uni Eropa. IMF juga memperingatkan adanya risiko kesenjangan pertumbuhan ekonomi, akibat pemangkasan estimasi pertumbuhan global yang keempat kalinya dalam setahun. Ketua Ekonom IMF Maurice Obstfeld mengatakan dalam konferensi pers tentang Perkiraan Ekonomi Dunia (WEO) di Kantor Pusat IMF di Washington, Amerika Serikat, Selasa pagi waktu setempat, bahwa penurunan prediksi itu merefleksikan kelesuan ekonomi di semua kelompok negara. “Perlambatan tersebut terjadi akibat berlanjutnya tren yang telah kami kemukakan sebelumnya (WEO Januari 2016),” kata dia. Obstfeld mengatakan tren tersebut terjadi sejak tahun lalu, yakni penjualan tiba-tiba aset berisiko, peningkatan kekhawatiran pasar, penurunan tajam harga minyak dan komoditas lain. Berdasarkan perkiraan tersebut, IMF memprediksi pertumbuhan kelompok ekonomi maju turun antara 0,3-0,5 persen. Rinciannya, Amerika Serikat sebesar 2,4 persen, kawasan Euro (Jerman, Prancis, Italia, Spanyol) 1,5 persen, Jepang 0,5 persen, dan negara maju lainnya di luar G7 (AS, Kanada, Prancis, Jerman, Italia, Jepang, Inggris) sebesar 2,1 persen. Ekonomi Asia Sementara itu, IMF menyatakan untuk kelompok ekonomi tumbuh dan berkembang di wilayah Asia, angka pertumbuhan tetap atau naik sedikit antara 0,1-0,2 persen dari perkiraan sebelumnya di Januari. Negara-negara dalam kelompok tersebut, yakni Tiongkok mencapai 6,5 persen (naik 0,2 persen), India 7,5 persen (tetap) dan ASEAN 5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Filipina, Vietnam, Thailand) 4,8 persen (tetap). Meskipun demikian, Obstfeld memperingatkan bahwa risiko perlambatan akan semakin besar pada negara dengan upah yang stagnan dan kesenjangan ekonomi masyarakat yang tinggi, tanpa ada kebijakan untuk menutup perbedaan tersebut. “Kesan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi hanya menguntungkan kelompok elit dan pemilik modal akan meluas,” kata dia. IMF mengusulkan tiga kebijakan utama untuk mengatasi kelesuan dan menjaga pertumbuhan ekonom di tengah kelesuan global, yakni melaui pendekatan moneter, fiskal dan struktur ekonomi. Konferensi pers IMF tentang WEO 2016, Selasa, menjadi acara awalan dalam rangkaian Pertemuan Musim Semi IMF-Bank Dunia di Washington, AS, pada 13-17 April 2016. Editor
: Aprillia Ika
Sumber
: Reuters (http://bisniskeuangan.kompas.com/read/2016/04/13/084600326/Pangkas.Outlook.Pertumbuhan.Global.ke.3.2.Persen.IMF.Peringatkan.Risiko.Politik? utm_source=WP&utm_medium=box&utm_campaign=Kknwp)
TOMOMI KIKUCHI, Nikkei staff writer SINGAPORE – The World Bank has lowered its growth forecast for developing East Asia and the Pacific region this year to 6.3%, 0.1 point down from its projection in October. It expects China’s slowdown and the decline in commodity prices to continue to weigh on regional growth. The latest forecast is slightly lower than the 6.5% reported by developing economies in the region, including China and those in Southeast Asia, in 2015. Including newly industrialized economies such as Singapore and Korea, the growth rate for the region is projected to stay flat from last year at 5.7%. The bank said that the growth slowdown “reflects mainly the ongoing growth moderation in China.” It however maintained China’s growth projection for 2016 at 6.7%. Slowing demand from China will hit Southeast Asia, especially commodities exporters like Malaysia. The World Bank lowered this year’s growth projection for Malaysia from 4.7% to 4.4% in its April report. That forecast is down from the 5% growth Malaysia reported in 2015. The economies in Vietnam and the Philippines are expected to grow by 6.5% and 6.4% respectively. Indonesia’s economic growth rate is projected at 5.1%, exceeding last year’s reported 4.8%. World Bank noted that the outlook for Indonesia is “contingent on the implementation of an ambitious public investment program and the success of recent reforms to reduce red tape and uncertainty for private investors.” East Asia Pacific shone above the other emerging economies last year, accounting for around 40% of the global growth in 2015. This was also due to lackluster performance in other emerging markets such as Brazil and Russia.
NEW DELHI – Direktur Pelaksana Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) Christine Lagarde meminta Asia mengambil alih kepemimpinan dalam perekonomian global, mengingat proporsinya yang terus bertumbuh. Ia menyebut reformasireformasi struktural untuk meningkatkan daya saing, pertumbuhan, serta penciptaan lapangan kerja adalah kuncinya. Dalam konferensi Advancing Asia di New Delhi, India, akhir pekan lalu, Lagarde mengatakan bahwa Asia saat ini adalah kawasan paling dinamis di seluruh dunia. Reformasi- reformasi struktural menjadi kunci karena perannya yang semakin penting bagi perekonomian global. Ia menyebutkan, Asia sudah menyumbang 40% perekonomian dunia dan dalam empat tahun ke depan bisa bertambah menjadi hampir dua pertiga. “Mengingat peran ekonominya yang sangat vital, seluruh dunia menjadi sangat berkepentingan terhadap hampir seluruh dinamika di Asia,†kata Lagarde, yang tampil sepanggung dengan Perdana Menteri (PM) India Narendra Modi. Pengaruh Asia terhadap dunia sudah jauh lebih besar dibandingkan sebelumnya, tambah dia, lantaran keterhubungan antarnegaranya kian meningkat. Sebaliknya, dalam beberapa hal Asia juga sekarang jauh lebih terdampak oleh perkembangan-perkembangan ekonomi global dibandingkan sebelumnya. Asia harus meresponsnya. Karena tantangan- tantangan yang dihadapi ekonomi dunia makin berat, lanjut Lagarde (60 tahun), peningkatan daya saing dan penciptaan lapangan kerja lewat reformasi struktural sangat penting untuk menjamin pertumbuhan di masa depan. Lagarde, yang baru terpilih kembali bulan lalu untuk masa jabatan lima tahun kedua, menjelaskan bahwa pesatnya integrasi Asia sebagai salah satu perkembangan paling mencengangkan dalam satu generasi terakhir di dunia. Banyak negara Asia yang menunjukkan keajaiban-keajaiban ekonomi, bahkan beberapa di antaranya menjadi kekuatan-kekuatan dunia. Meski begitu, ia meminta para pembuat kebijakan di Asia untuk meningkatkan respons terhadap beragam tantangan global. Ini berupa volatilitas di pasar saham, aliran modal, pengetatan finansial, dan rendahnya harga-harga komoditas. (afp/gor) http://id.beritasatu.com/international/pertumbuhan-ekonomi-global-di-tangan-asia/141085 (http://id.beritasatu.com/international/pertumbuhan-ekonomi-global-di-tangan-asia/141085) Sumber : INVESTOR DAILY
Bisnis.com, NEW DELHI–International Monetary Fund (IMF) mengindikasikan ada sejumlah situasi buram masih membayangi regional Asia pada tahun-tahun ini. Dalam pidato pembukaan Konferensi Regional Advancing Asia: Investing for the Future, Sabtu (12/3/2016), Managing Director IMF Christine Lagarde menyatakan situasi tersebut antara lain meliputi pasar yang volatil, intaian capital outflow, perlemahan harga komoditas dan konflik geopolitis. Selain itu, dia secara resmi meluncurkan Technical and Assistance Training Centre untuk kawasan Asia Selatan, guna meminimalisir efek buruk dari perlemahan ekonomi global dan situasisituasi tersebut. Lagarde yang baru saja terpilih sebagai eksekutif puncak IMF menyatakan, pusat pelatihan ini diharapkan bisa membantu negara-negara Asia Selatan untuk terus meraup momentum pertumbuhan ekonomi tinggi. “Momentum pertumbuhan tinggi negara-negara Asia Selatan memiliki dampak positif terhadap ekonomi global. Namun, apa yang terjadi secara global juga berdampak pada kawasan ini,” ujar Lagarde di hadapan para delegasi yang mewakili 30 negara di Asia.
WASHINGTON, KOMPAS.com – Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) menyatakan ekonomi global kini menghadapi risiko tergelincir. Deputi Direktur IMF David Lipton menyerukan kepada seluruh negara segera melakukan tindakan guna menggenjot permintaan global. “Jelas kita berada pada titik itu. Pantauan terakhir IMF terhadap perekonomian global sekali lagi menunjukkan titik pelemahan,” ujar Lipton di Washington DC, Amerika Serikat. Komentar IMF ini muncul setelah data perdagangan China yang lebih rendah dari prediksi, menunjukkan bahwa ekspor pada Februari anjlok dibandingkan kuartal yang sama tahun lalu. Dengan demikian, permintaan global dan indikator ekonomi global secara umum dapat diprediksi. Sebelumnya, IMF telah menurunkan proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi global menjadi 3,4 persen. Bulan lalu, IMF telah menyerukan kepada pemimpin dunia bahwa ekonomi global sangat rapuh. Lantaran itulah, dunia perlu melakukan serangkaian upaya guna meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Dalam laporan yang dirilis saat pertemuan G20 di Shanghai, China beberapa waktu lalu, IMF menyatakan G20 harus merencanakan program stimulus secara terkoordinasi seiring perlambatan ekonomi global dan dapat terganggu lebih lanjut karena turbulensi pasar, fluktuasi harga minyak, dan konflik geopolitik. “Kesulitan untuk meningkatkan pertumbuhan terjadi pada negara maju. Risiko pelemahan lebih terlihat dibandingkan kondisi sebelumnya. Oleh sebab itu, perlu dilakukan aksi kebijakan yang lebih kuat dan konkret,” jelas Lipton. Lipton pun menyatakan, risiko pelemahan ekonomi global telah meningkat. Hal ini sejalan dengan kondisi pasar finansial yang rapuh dan harga komoditas dunia yang masih saja rendah, yang menciptakan kekhawatiran lebih lanjut terhadap “kesehatan” ekonomi dunia. Penulis
: Sakina Rakhma Diah Setiawan
Editor
: Josephus Primus
Sumber
: bbc.co.uk (http://www.bbc.co.uk/)
KESEPAKATAN 29 Feb 2016:
SHANGHAI kontan. Pemimpin keuangan Kelompok 20 (G20) berkomitmen melaksanakan kegiatan yang bertujuan membantu pertumbuhan ekonomi global. Komitmen tersebut muncul di tengah kekhawatiran munculnya kebijakan moneter yang justru menyulitkan keadaan. Seperti diberitakan Bloomberg, Sabtu (27/2), para menteri keuangan G20 menyatakan akan menggunakan kebijakan fiskal secara fleksibel untuk memperkuat pertumbuhan ekonomi dan lapangan kerja. Kebijakan moneter saja tidak akan menyebabkan pertumbuhan yang seimbang. Mereka juga sepakat akan menahan diri untuk bersaing mendevaluasi nilai tukar mata uang negara masing-masing. Sebaliknya, mereka akan saling berkoordinasi dan berkonsultasi terkait nilai tukar. “Kami akan menggunakan semua alat kebijakan, moneter, fiskal dan struktural untuk memperkuat pertumbuhan investasi dan menjamin stabilitas pasar keuangan,” demikian pernyataan resmi G20 saat mengakhiri pertemuan yang berlangsung di China, Sabtu pekan lalu. Asal tahu saja, China dalam enam bulan terakhir telah mendevaluasi mata uangnya dengan sangat cepat. Tindakan tersebut memicu kemarahan negara lain, salah satunya Amerika Serikat (AS) yang menuding China hanya ingin menang sendiri. Tahun lalu, pertumbuhan ekonomi China tercatat hanya 6,9%. Tahun ini, target pertumbuhan China akan dipublikasikan pada akhir pekan ini. Sejumlah analis meramal, China bakal membukukan pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 6,5% pada di tahun 2016. Sebelumnya, ekonom Citi telah memangkas proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi global tahun 2016 dari sebelumnya 2,7% menjadi 2,5%. Ini disebabkan perlambatan perekonomian negaranegara maju. Menurut Citi, pertumbuhan ekonomi global bisa melorot di bawah 2% bila pertumbuhan ekonomi negara-negara berkembang melambat. Sementara, Dana Moneter Internasional atau International Monetary Fund (IMF) memangkas prediksi ekonomi dunia tumbuh 3,4% dari sebelumnya 3,6%. Para pemimpin ekonomi G20 juga menilai ekonomi dunia akan shock jika Inggris memutuskan keluar dari Uni Eropa. G20 mengindikasikan tahun ini risiko penurunan dan kerentanan ekonomi kian meningkat akibat hengkangnya modal asing, penurunan harga komoditas, isu geopolitik serta isu cabutnya Inggris dari Uni Eropa atau british exit (Brexit).
SHANGHAI kontan. Bursa China anjlok lagi hari ini (29/2). Mengutip data Bloomberg, pada penutupan sesi pertama, indeks Shanghai Composite tergerus 3,4% menjadi 2.673,36. Jika ditotal, sepanjang Februari, indeks acuan Negeri Panda ini sudah turun 2,4%. Sedangkan pada Januari lalu, penurunannya mencapai 23%. Dalam setiap 20 saham yang melorot, hanya ada satu saham yang berhasil naik. Sementara itu, indeks Hang Seng China Enterprises Index turun 1,2% pada hari ini. Adapun indeks Hang Seng tertekan 0,9%. Aksi jual yang melanda bursa China dipicu oleh kekecewaan investor atas pertemuan G20 di Shanghai. Pada pertemuan itu, tidak ada kebijakan spesifik yang dikeluarkan untuk meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia. Menurut JK Life Insurance Co, investor berharap pemerintah akan mengumumkan kebijakan baru untuk mengerek perekonomian pada pekan ini. “Investor merasa kecewa atas minimnya kabar baik dari pertemuan G20. Di sisi lain, yuan mulai melemah lagi,” jelas Steve Wang, chief China economist Reorient Financial Markets Ltd di Hong Kong. Negara-negara anggota G20 mencapai sederet kesepakatan mulai dari percepatan reformasi struktural, menjalin keterbukaan kebijakan, hingga mengevaluasi ulang kebijakan suku bunga negatif dan pemberian stimulus ekonomi. Sesuai dengan perkiraan para investor. Pasalnya, hingga akhir pertemuan, para menteri keuangan dan gubernur bank sentral G20 jus tru tidak memasukkan agenda penambahan stimulus dalam kesimpulan akhir. Dalam pertemuan yang digelar pada 26-27 Februari, para pejabat G20 tidak menemukan kesamaan pemikiran terkait dengan pemberian stimulus. Hal ini memicu kekhawatiran para investor akan kondisi yang tak berubah di pasar selama beberapa waktu ke depan. Pasalnya, dengan tak adanya kesimpulan terkait penambahan stimulus, para investor yakin, Jepang dan Uni Eropa hanya akan menambahkan sedikit stimulus pada Maret. Sumber : IPS RESEARCH
reuters: Asian stocks were off to a cautious start on Monday after a weekend meeting of the Group of 20 economic policymakers ended with no new coordinated action to spur global growth and as solid U.S. data revived expectation of a U.S. rate hike before year-end. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS dipped 0.2 percent, while Australian shares were up 0.4 percent and South Korean shares were flat.KS11 (http://www.reuters.com/finance/markets/index?symbol=kr%21kspi). Japan’s Nikkei .N225 (http://www.reuters.com/finance/markets/index?symbol=jp%21n225) gained 1.0 percent largely on the overnight fall in the yen while U.S. stock futures ESc1 were little changed from late last week. G20 finance ministers and central bankers agreed to use “all policy tools – monetary, fiscal and structural – individually and collectively” to reach the group’s economic goals, citing a series of risks to world growth. Some market players say the statement could mildly underpin market sentiment, but the lack of any concrete action plans provided for few catalysts. “The G20 communique basically says 1) the world is not as bad a place as markets think; and 2) if it gets worse we will use fiscal, monetary and structural policy aggressively to fix it,” Steven Englander, global head of G10 FX Strategy at CitiFX, said in a note to clients. “In baseball parlance, they were aiming for a single in terms of restoring confidence and they probably achieved it,” he added. Fresh U.S. economic data published on Friday revived expectations of Federal Reserve rate increases, helping to lift U.S. bond yields and the dollar. Consumer spending rose solidly in January and underlying inflation picked up by the most in four years. Gross domestic product growth in the fourth quarter was revised higher, to a 1.0 percent annual rate The figures prompted Federal funds rate futures <0#FF:> to price in a more than 50 percent chance of one rate hike by the end of year, compared to almost zero percent chance in midFebruary. The two-year U.S. Treasuries yield US2YT=RR also hit a four-week high of 0.817 percent on Friday and last stood at 0.801 percent versus its Feb 11 low of 0.582 percent. The greenback’s yield allure helped lift the dollar’s index against a basket of six major currencies .DXY =USD to a three-week high of 98.26 on Friday. It last stood at 98.13. As the dollar gained, the euro EUR= (http://www.reuters.com/finance/currencies/quote?srcCurr=EUR&destCurr=USD) fetched $1.0920, having slipped to a three-week low of $1.0912 on Friday. In early Asia on Monday, it traded at $1.0931, flat on the day. The yen JPY= (http://www.reuters.com/finance/currencies/quote?srcCurr=JPY&destCurr=USD) also slipped to one-week low of 114 to the dollar on Friday but bounced back 0.2 percent on Monday to 113.75. Fears of “Brexit” offered traders a good excuse to sell the British pound, which fell to a seven-year low of $1.3854 GBP=D4 (http://www.reuters.com/finance/currencies/quote? srcCurr=GBP&destCurr=USD). Although the British government managed to get G20 to agree to include a warning against “Brexit” in the statement, that appeared to have limited impact, with sterling trading slightly weaker at $1.3861. In the oil market, U.S. crude futures CLc1 were little moved at $32.76 per barrel, holding on to their 11 percent gains made last week, its steepest weekly rise since August. (Editing by Shri Navaratnam)
Szu Ping Chan (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/authors/szu-ping-chan/) TELEGRAPH: 26 FEBRUARY 2016 • 2:02PM Global finance chiefs laid bare their differences over how to revive the economy on Friday as analysts warned that “policy paralysis” would spark fresh market turmoil. As George Osborne (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/), the Chancellor, said the risks facing the world were at their “most heightened” since the financial crisis (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12174287/EU-referendum-David-Camerons-project-fear-warnings-slapped-down-by-Lord-Howard-.html), Jack Lew, the US Treasury Secretary, said leaders would need to use “all policy levers” to boost growth and lift the world out of its current malaise. “That means using fiscal levers as well as monetary policy and structural reforms,” he said on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in Shanghai, China. His comments were supported by China’s central bank governor, who sought to reassure investors that the world’s second largest economy would not suffer a hard landing. “China will strike a balance between growth, restructuring and risk management,” said Zhou Xiaochuan. Mr Zhou also reiterated that China would not devalue its currency again to try to boost the economy. He said there was “no basis for persistent renminbi depreciation”. However, Wolfgang Schaeuble, the German finance minister, rejected the idea of co-ordinated stimulus. He said monetary firepower was now limited, while growth fuelled by government spending alone risked “zombifying” economies. “Talking about further stimulus just distracts from the real tasks at hand,” he said. “We, therefore, do not agree on a G20 fiscal stimulus package as some argue, in case outlook risks materialise.” Analysts at Citi said markets were watching the meeting in Shanghai closely for signs that policymakers were prepared to deploy immediate action to prevent a slowdown rather than reiterate a 2014 commitment to boost growth. Steven Englander, head of currency strategy at the bank, said failure to do so would be taken badly by investors. “Keeping the previous language would be very disappointing and would be viewed as either complacent or reflecting policy paralysis. [The G20 needs to] man up and tell member countries that monetary policy should be accompanied by fiscal expansion,” he said. Finance ministers and central bank governors from the world’s richest economies met for dinner in Shanghai on Friday to discuss the recent financial turmoil. Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, warned that low growth could become permanent in advanced economies (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/02/25/markcarney-lays-down-growth-challenge-as-storm-clouds-gather-ov/) unless governments implemented vital reforms. A communiqué is expected at the conclusion of the meeting on Saturday. Mr Osborne tweeted that the “risks facing the global economy [were at the] most heightened since the crash”. Mr Osborne said the pound’s recent drop underlined his argument. “You have seen the value of the pound fall and it reminds us all…this is about people’s jobs and their livelihoods and their living standards,” he told the BBC. “In my judgment as Chancellor, leaving the EU would represent a profound economic shock for our country, for all of us, and I’m going to do everything I can to prevent that happening.”
JAKARTA kontan. Indonesia tengah diuntungkan dengan kebijakan moneter sejumlah negara. Dampak ketidakpastian akibat perbedaan arah kebijakan moneter di berbagai negara mulai menyempit. Pelonggaran kebijakan moneter seperti yang dilakukan Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) dan Bank Sentral Jepang (BOJ) makin dominan. Kedua negara ini telah menerapkan suku bunga negatif untuk mendorong ekonominya. Nah, kondisi itu akan membuat aliran dana yang selama ini berada di negara-negara tersebut mencari tempat yang menguntungkan. Indonesia, dengan tingkat bunga yang lebih tinggi menjadi salah satu muara dari dana-dana itu. Mantan Menteri Keuangan Chatib Basri menilai, kebijakan negara Eropa dan Jepang itu menutup kebimbangan pasar atas rencana bank sentral AS Federal Reserve menaikkan suku bunganya (Fed fund rate). Akibatnya, aliran modal yang sempat pergi dari emerging market terpaksa kembali lagi. Jadi, situasinya saat ini akan banyak dana yang akan masuk ke pasar keuangan dan pasar modal dalam negeri. “Ini yang mendorong nilai tukar rupiah menguat,” kata Chatib, Kamis (25/2) di Jakarta. Dalam jangka pendek ini baik. Tetapi. dia mengingatkan, Indonesia memiliki pengalaman buruk dengan arus modal dana panas ke pasar modal dan pasar keuangan. Ketika Indonesia disesaki hot money sebagai dampak Quantitative Easing periode 2009-2013, rupiah menguat seperti sekarang. Namun, hot money itu berpeluang kembali. Dalam beberapa saat bisa hilang dari pasar dalam negeri. Jika terjadi capital outflow, pasar keuangan maupun pasar modal akan mengalami guncangan. Belajar dari kondisi itu, pemerintah harus memastikan, aliran dana asing itu tersimpan dalam jangka waktu lama. Instrumen untuk bisa merealisasikan itu adalah melalui Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) atau investasi yang masuk ke sektor riil. Sebab, jika masuk melalui FDI dana asing akan tersimpan lebih lama. Karena umumnya FDI merupakan proyek yang secara fisik terlihat. Oleh karena itu, ia menilai tepat kebijakan pemerintah yang membuka lebar peluang FDI masuk dengan revisi Daftar Negatif Investasi (DNI). Risikonya, pemerintah akan mendapatkan stigma yang mendukung neoliberlaisme. Nah, karena itu pelonggaran investasi asing ini juga harus dilakukan secara bertahap. Apakah cukup disitu? Belum, tingginya investasi yang masuk juga masih memabwa risiko lain. Yaitu melebarnya current account defisit (CAD) alias defisit neraca transaksi berjalan. Teorinya, jika investasi meningkat, maka impor barang modal dan bahan baku juga naik. Ini akan mendorong CAD lebih besar. Oleh karenanya, tugas pemrintah juga untuk menjaga CAD tetap aman. Mengingat, CAD sangat sensntif di mata market. Namun, pelebaran CAD ini diperkirakan masih akan terjadi dalam satu hingga dua tahun mendatang. Nah, sambil menunggu hal itu pemerintah bisa mempersiapkan diri dengan mendorong industri manufaktur, dan hilirisasi. Supaya ketergantungan akan impor berkurang. (Asep Munazat Zatnika K.)
WASHINGTON – Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) memperingatkan bahwa perekonomian dunia sangat rentan dan menyerukan mekanisme baru untuk melindungi negara-negara yang paling rentan. Dalam laporan tentang tantangan ekonomi menjelang pertemuan para kepala keuangan negara-negara kuat Kelompok 20 atau G20 di Shanghai, pemberi pinjaman krisis global itu mengatakan pertumbuhan dunia telah melambat dan bisa tergelincir oleh gejolak pasar, kejatuhan harga minyak dan konflik geopolitik. “Pemulihan global telah melemah di tengah meningkatnya keuangan turbulensi dan penurunan harga-harga aset,” kata IMF. “Respon kebijakan yang kuat, baik di tingkat nasional maupun multilateral, diperlukan untuk mengatasi risiko-risiko dan mendorong perekonomian global ke jalur yang lebih sejahtera.” Laporan itu, yang akan disampaikan pada pada pertemuan para menteri keuangan dan gubernur bank sentral ekonomi-ekonomi terkemuka G20 di Shanghai pada Jumat dan Sabtu, mengatakan Dana mengharapkan menurunkan proyeksinya untuk pertumbuhan dunia 2016, hampir enam minggu setelah membuat estimasi terbarunya 3,4 persen. “Kegiatan global telah melambat secara tak terduga pada akhir 2015, dan telah melemah pada awal 2016 di tengah penurunan harga-harga aset,” kata laporan itu. Bagaimana negara-negara harus bereaksi terhadap ancaman pada pertumbuhan akan menjadi agenda utama dalam pembicaraan di Shanghai. IMF mendesak negara-negara untuk meningkatkan stimulus fiskal dan mendorong melalui reformasi-reformasi untuk meningkatkan permintaan. Dikatakannya, bank-bank sentral, termasuk Federal Reserve AS, harus mempertahankan kebijakan moneter akomodatif untuk memastikan kondisi-kondisi keuangan lebih ketat tidak menghambat momentum pertumbuhan. Namun, IMF menekankan, “untuk menghindari ketergantungan lebih besar pada kebijakan moneter, kebijakan fiskal jangka pendek akan mendukung pemulihan bila memungkinkan dan asalkan ada ruang fiskal, fokus pada investasi.” Selain guncangan ekonomi dunia dari pelambatan Tiongkok dan kejatuhan harga-harga komoditas, IMF mengatakan isu geopolitik seperti krisis pengungsi Suriah dan meningkatnya infeksi di Amerika Latin dari virus Zika menimbulkan ancaman ekonomi. Untuk negara-negara yang memikul beban terbesar dari krisis mereka, dan negara-negara yang dinyatakan fit tetapi dibiarkan rentan dengan penurunan komoditas-komoditas, IMF mengatakan jaring pengaman keuangan dunia yang meliputi program-program milik Dana sendiri bisa ditingkatkan. Tanpa spesifik, IMF menyerukan mekanisme pembiayaan baru untuk membantu negara-negara dalam gejolak keuangan. “Banyak negara di pusat guncangan tersebut memikul beban untuk orang lain, dengan kapasitas dan ruang fiskal sering terbatas,” kata laporan itu. “Menyadari publik global ramah dari tindakan-tindakah mereka, mereka bisa didukung oleh inisiatif terkoordinasi seluruh dunia untuk memberikan dukungan keuangan.” sambungnya. http://economy.okezone.com/read/2016/02/25/20/1320939/imf-peringatkan-ekonomi-dunia-sangat-rentan?page=2 (http://economy.okezone.com/read/2016/02/25/20/1320939/imfperingatkan-ekonomi-dunia-sangat-rentan?page=2) Â Sumber : OKEZONE.COM
Hong Kong, Feb 25, 2016 (AFP) Chinese stocks plunged on Thursday morning, with Shanghai dropping more than three percent as G20 ministers began gathering for a meeting in the city under a cloud of economic concerns. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index dropped 3.61 percent, or 105.84 points, to 2,823.06 by lunch ahead of the meeting of rich nations, which kicks off on Friday. The Shenzhen Composite Index, which tracks stocks on China’s second exchange, slumped 4.76 percent, or 89.39 points, to 1,787.08. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index fell 1.23 percent, or 235.79 points, to 18,956.66. bloomberg: Will we ever really get over the financial crisis? Six years or more on from the start of it, the world economy is still struggling to generate a convincing recovery. Among the headwinds is debt, the factor that took us into the crisis in the first place. In the meantime, since the crisis began global debt has actually risen. The hoped-for financial healing has happened only in a few scattered parts of the global economy. The most recent figures (https://images.magnetmail.net/images/clients/IIF_2/attach//CMM_December_2014.pdf) come from the Institute of International Finance (IIF), a group that represents the financial services industry. As of June this year it estimated that global debt, excluding the financial sector, was equivalent to 245% of total global economic activity or GDP. That’s up from 214% in September 2008 when the financial crisis was going into its most intense phase.
The IIF describes the continued build-up of debt as “worrisome”. These figures cover debts owed by governments, households and businesses outside the financial sector. They don’t cover all countries, but the vast bulk of global debt is included. Financial companies, such as banks, have reduced their debts. The IIF says that is desirable, but as they are essentially intermediaries between the ultimate lenders and borrowers, “their debt reduction does not influence the assessment of sustainability of the debt burden to the economy”.
What deleveraging? The persistence of the debt problem was highlighted by another recent study (http://www.voxeu.org/sites/default/files/image/FromMay2014/Geneva16.pdf) by the International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies (ICMBS) and it tells a similar story. Its language is rather technical, referring to leverage, which in this context is a measure of debt burdens. Its title gives the key conclusion: “Deleveraging? What Deleveraging?” To quote the report’s assessment slightly more fully: “Contrary to widely held beliefs, the world has not yet begun to de-lever and the global debt-to-GDP [ratio] is still growing, breaking new highs.” If you do include the financial sector for the rich economies, the total figure in the ICMBS report has at least stabilised at 385% of their collective GDP, a level that is nonetheless very close to its all-time high. Those countries were the source of the bulk of the build-up in global debt levels before the crisis. Since then, it is the developing world, especially China that has driven the rise in debt. In the case of China, the report describes the rise in debt as “stellar”. Excluding financial companies it has increased by 72 percentage points to a level far higher than any other emerging economy. The report says there have been marked increases in Turkey, Argentina and Thailand as well. Emerging economies are particularly worrying for the authors of the report: “They could be at the epicentre of the next crisis. Although the level of leverage is higher in developed markets, the speed of the recent leverage process in emerging economies, and especially in Asia, is indeed an increasing concern.”
Although the most recent financial crisis was in the rich countries we don’t have to go all that far back in history to find debt crises in emerging economies that caused tremors, though not fullscale financial earthquakes, around the world. There were a succession of crises beginning with Mexico in 1996, continuing in Asia, Russia, Turkey, Brazil and then Argentina early in the following decade.
Signs of improvement There are also some, though not many, more positive signs in the global debt situation. In the rich countries, the financial sector has reduced its debt.
The UK and the United States account for most of that. In the UK, however, while it has fallen it is still at historically very high levels. The same two countries have seen significant reductions in household debt, measured as a percentage of GDP. But government debt has risen in both. For the UK, if you add that still high financial sector debt you get a total just shy of 500% of GDP. To spell it out, that is the estimate from the International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies and it covers households, business, including the banks, and the government. The British figure is a good deal higher than the US or the average for the eurozone but significantly lower than Japan. On government debt alone, the British figure (for 2013) is lower than the US or, by a small margin the eurozone.
Now there is an argument that debts are less troublesome if they are owed by governments rather than by households. The Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman wrote (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/02/opinion/krugman-nobody-understands-debt.html?_r=0): “Families have to pay back their debt. Governments don’t – all they need to do is ensure that debt grows more slowly than their tax base.” But others, such as American professors Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, (http://www.nber.org/papers/w15639)argue that beyond a certain point, government debt tends to hold back economic growth. They say the threshold is about 90% of GDP. A significant number of countries, mainly rich ones are close to or above those levels. Their work has been the subject of controversy (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/30/opinion/debt-and-growth-a-response-to-reinhart-and-rogoff.html). While admitting some errors, they have defended it. (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/26/opinion/debt-growth-and-the-austerity-debate.html?ref=opinion)
‘Poison’ In any event, the authors of the ICMBS report argue that there are features of the current situation that make the large debt burden, public and private, more of a problem. They refer to the “poisonous combination of rising leverage and slowing growth”. The point is that debt payments – interest and repayments of the original loan – are easier to keep up-to-date for borrowers with a rising income. And that brings us to the “poison” that the ICMBS report refers to. Debt is high and economies are growing more slowly than before the crisis, so they are not generating the incomes to service the debt as rapidly as they were. There has also been a fall in inflation rates in many countries. Inflation can help limit debt burdens. Household incomes, company revenues and government tax receipts all rise but debt payments are often fixed. Low inflation, especially if it is lower than borrowers expected when they took their loan, weakens that process and leaves debt burdens heavier than they would have been. But there are some who say the picture painted by the ICMBS report is excessively gloomy. You can find some of them in the report itself, which includes a record of a discussion of its findings. Mark Carey of the US Federal Reserve said he would have toned down a little the size of the disaster we are facing, and that the situation is not as bad as described. He said there is no obvious downtrend in economic growth and pointed out that a great deal of American debt has a variable interest rate. That would reduce the debt burden as inflation falls. Angel Ubide of DE Shaw Group and the Peterson Institute of International Economics in Washington described the assessment of China as “a bit apocalyptic” and thought it should have been more balanced. He saw a prospect for credit going increasingly to highly productive private firms – which would presumably be able to meet their debt obligations. Carlo Monticelli of Italy’s Ministry of Economy and Finance recalled that China has $4 trillion in foreign reserves. He also noted the large numbers of people still in the countryside who could support further economic growth by moving to industry or becoming more productive farmers. That implies more economic growth to meet the debt payments. The conclusion: there is not really any consensus on just how worried we should be about the global debt situation or China’s in particular. But you can be sure that economic policy officials – in central banks, finance ministries and international agencies such as the IMF – will be watching it warily. You can also be sure that we won’t really be shot of the legacy of the financial crisis for a long time yet.
G20 GDP growth stable at 0.7% in the third quarter of 2015 Download the entire news release (PDF 120KB) (http://www.oecd.org/std/na/G20-GDP-Eng-Q315.pdf)
Washington, Feb 5, 2016 (AFP) US President Barack Obama on Friday hailed the new drop in the country’s unemployment rate to an eight-year low of 4.9 percent, saying Americans could be “proud of the progress we’ve made.” “We have recovered from the worst economic crisis since the 1930s, the worst in my lifetime and the lifetime of most of the people in this room, and we’ve done it faster, stronger, better, more durably than just about any other advanced economy,” Obama told reporters. Washington, Jan 26, 2016 (AFP) US consumer confidence improved slightly in January, building on a gain in December, as the medium-term outlook improved, the Conference Board reported Tuesday. The consumer confidence index rose to 98.1 from 96.3 in December, the Conference Board said. Consumer views of current economic conditions were relatively unchanged. But they grew more confident in the outlook in the six months ahead, with respondents in the survey ended January 14 anticipating slight improvement in business conditions, job prospects and income growth. “For now, consumers do not foresee the volatility in financial markets as having a negative impact on the economy,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at the research group. “The stronger-than-expected outturn for consumer confidence in January supports our expectations that consumption growth will rebound in the coming months from the soft patch in Q4,” Barclays analyst Jesse Hurwitz said in a client note. 14/12/2015 – Real growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the G20 area remained stable at 0.7% in the third quarter of 2015, for the third consecutive quarter, but with diverging patterns across countries, according to preliminary estimates. GDP growth accelerated strongly in Korea and Australia (to 1.3% and 0.9% respectively, compared with 0.3% in the previous quarter), and in Canada (to 0.6%, compared with minus 0.1%). It also turned up in Japan (to 0.3%, up from minus 0.1% in the previous quarter) and in South Africa (to 0.2%, up from minus 0.3% in the previous quarter). Economic growth accelerated more moderately in Mexico and France, to 0.8% and 0.3% respectively (compared with 0.6% and 0.0% in the previous quarter) and in India (to 1.9% compared with 1.7% in the previous quarter). In China and Indonesia, economic growth remained unchanged at 1.8% and 1.2%, respectively. On the other hand, in the third quarter of 2015, GDP growth slowed in the United States and in the United Kingdom, to 0.5% (down from 1.0% and 0.7%, respectively, in the previous quarter), while it decelerated marginally (by 0.1% percentage point) in Turkey, Germany and Italy, to respectively 1.3%, 0.3% and 0.2%. In Brazil, real GDP continued to contract, at a rate of minus 1.7%, following a decline of minus 2.1% in the previous quarter. Compared with the same quarter of 2014, GDP growth for the G20 area slowed to 2.9% in the third quarter of 2015, compared with 3.1% in the previous quarter, withIndia recording the highest growth rate (7.1%), followed by China (6.9%). Brazil recorded the largest contraction (minus 4.4%). Quarterly GDP in volume terms for the G20 Percentage change on the previous quarter, seasonally adjusted data (http://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=33940) (http://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=33940) (http://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=33940) (http://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?
queryid=33940) (http://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=33940) (http://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=33940) (http://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=33940) (http://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=33940) (http://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=33940) (http://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=33940) (http://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=33940) (http://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx? queryid=33940)Note: Growth rates presented in this chart are based on data with more than one decimal. Link to underlying data (http://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=33940) – Source: Quarterly National Accounts BEIJING sindonews- Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) memperingatkan bahwa ekonomi global menghadapi risiko terus menurun dalam pertumbuhan sub-par. Negara-negara G20 sebaiknya mengambil reformasi struktural untuk mencegah risiko. Lembaga yang berbasis di Washington ini merilis Catatan tentang prospek dan tantangan kebijakan global menjelang pertemuan G20 di Antalya, Turki. “Dengan prospek ekonomi global berulang kali turun selama lima tahun terakhir, ada risiko nyata dari ekonomi dunia terus-menerus terperosok dalam pertumbuhan sub-par, dengan tingkat kemiskinan dan pengangguran tinggi,” kata laporan tersebut seperti dikutip dari Global Times, Jumat (13/11/2015). Hal tersebut menunjukkan tiga transisi signifikan yang membebani prospek global dalam lingkungan meningkatkan ketidakpastian. “The Federal Reserve (The Fed) siap menormalkan kebijakan moneter, sementara mata uang utama lainnya kemungkinan akan mengurangi lebih lanjut. Perekonomian China mengalami moderasi,” ujarnya.
IMF memperingatkan jika transisi tidak berhasil sesuai rencana, maka pertumbuhan global bisa tergelincir. Fed dapat meningkatkan volatilitas pasar keuangan, dengan bergerak berpotensi mengganggu arus modal dan harga aset. IMF menyerukan reformasi struktural untuk meningkatkan pertumbuhan di masa depan dengan langkah-langkah permintaan yang efektif. Di negara berkembang, dukungan permintaan harus hati-hati terhadap kebutuhan. Sementara, IMF memperingatkan rebalancing China menghasilkan dampak situasi global yang besar dan bisa menjadi bergelombang. IMF mengatakan, ekonomi China perlu transisi menuju jalur pertumbuhan yang lebih lambat, lebih berkelanjutan. Proses transisi dalam jangka pendek kemungkinan akan memerlukan spillovers melalui perdagangan dan komoditas. Namun, masyarakat internasional harus mendukung China dalam upaya yang sulit ini sejak transisi akan menguntungkan pertumbuhan global dan mengurangi risiko. IMF memproyeksikan ekonomi global menjadi 3,6% pada 2016, laju tercepat sejak 2011. Negara maju akan terus mendapatkan keuntungan dari kondisi moneter yang mendukung dan harga komoditas yang lebih rendah. Emerging ekonomi pasar juga akan diharapkan dapat untung tahun depan setelah lima tahun mengalami penurunan. KTT G20 kesepuluh yang akan diselenggarakan pada 15-16 November di Antalya dinilai sangat tepat pada saat ekonomi dunia sedang menghadapi berbagai masalah termasuk perlambatan pertumbuhan, kebijakan berbeda, transisi dan perubahan, serta meningkatkan ketidakpastian. (izz) source: http://ekbis.sindonews.com/read/1061219/35/imf-warning-ekonomi-global-berisiko-terus-turun-1447385998 (http://ekbis.sindonews.com/read/1061219/35/imf-warning-ekonomiglobal-berisiko-terus-turun-1447385998)
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Pertemuan G20 di Turki dinilai sangat penting dilakukan pada saat ini untuk mencari jalan ke luar terkait perlambatan ekonomi global dan menurunnya harga komoditas. “Penyelenggaraan KTT G20 kali ini sangat penting karena dilaksanakan di tengah kondisi ekonomi dunia yang sedang mengharapi tantangan yang berat,” kata Presiden Joko Widodo dalam konferensi pers di Bandara Halim Perdanakusuma Jakarta, Sabtu (14/11/2015). Menurut Jokowi, perlambatan perekonomian dunia yang ditandai volatilitas pasar keuangan global yang semakin tinggi serta menurunnya harga komoditas di pasar dunia menjadi persoalan yang akan dibahas. Selain itu, pertemuan tingkat tinggi ini juga akan membahas isu global lainnya termasuk upaya memerangi terorisme. Dengan kejadian aksi teror di Paris Prancis, pemerintah Indonesia mengajak semua semua pihak untuk memperkuat kerjasama internasional dalam menghadapi terorisme. “Sekarang ini makin penting untuk membahas masalah-masalah global termasuk upaya memerangi terorisme,” jelasnya.
Confronting the Coming Liquidity Crisis SAO PAULO – This month, G-20 leaders will meet in Antalya, Turkey, for their tenth summit since the 2007 global financial crisis. But, despite all of these meetings – high-profile events involving top decision-makers from the world’s most influential economies – no real progress has been made toward reforming the international financial architecture. Indeed, the group has not seriously engaged with the subject since the 2010 summit in Seoul. Put simply, the G-20 is failing in its primary and original purpose of enhancing global financial and monetary stability. A big part of the problem is that the G-20 agenda (https://g20.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/G20-KEY-MESSAGES.pdf) has become increasingly congested over the years. At a time of looming financial upheaval, the G-20 must stop attempting to tackle a broad array of issues simultaneously – a goal that has proved impossible – and go back to basics. The United States Federal Reserve is now preparing to raise interest rates, which it has kept near zero since the crisis. While monetary-policy tightening may be necessary, it risks triggering a serious liquidity crisis in developing countries, with a major impact on economic growth and development. That is why, at this month’s G-20 summit, participants must focus on providing a credible institutional backstop for the difficult times ahead. Specifically, the G-20 should move to empower the International Monetary Fund, both by pushing it to do more with its existing powers and by championing institutional reform.Raghuram Rajan (https://www.project-syndicate.org/columnist/raghuram-rajan), the governor of India’s central bank, emphasized this at the recent annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank in Lima, Peru, when he called for the Fund to build a sustainable global safety net to help countries in future liquidity crisis. The necessary institutional arrangement already exists: the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR) department. Within this department, official entities can exchange SDRs – the IMF’s own international reserve asset – for other currencies. Moreover, the IMF can designate a country with a strong balance-of-payments position to provide the liquidity that another member needs. Through this so-called “designation mechanism” – which has never been used – the IMF can ensure certainty of access to global currencies in times of crisis. Of course, if the IMF’s SDR department is to become a global liquidity hub capable of mitigating future crises, reform is vital. Ideally, major powers would support efforts to strengthen the IMF. But the US has so far been unwilling to do so, with domestic partisan politics spurring Congress to block the relevant reforms. While the G-20 should not give up on IMF-strengthening reforms, it should hedge its bets. Specifically, it should work with a “coalition of the willing” – including the major emerging economies, concerned advanced countries, and other developing countries – to create an institutional mechanism with which to respond effectively to the next global liquidity crisis (http://www.globaleconomicgovernance.org/avoiding-next-liquidity-crunch-how-g20-must-support-monetary-cooperation-increase-resilience-crisis). One obvious option would be to replicate the institutional design of the SDR department by incorporating it in an agreement among the coalition countries. The Bank for International Settlements, which was the counterparty in currency swaps under the Bretton Woods par value system in the 1960s, could be the manager of this system. This approach undoubtedly has major shortcomings. Indeed, the key advantage of the IMF’s SDR department – that it is a quasi-universal and government-driven system whereby currencies are exchanged with reliable “collateral” (the SDR) – would be lost. But the perfect should not be made the enemy of the good. As long as an ideal system is out of reach, an imperfect option will have to do. With the risk of a liquidity crisis intensifying, and the existing international financial architecture ill-equipped to respond to such a crisis, doing nothing is not an option. In recent years, the international financial system has become increasingly fragmented, exemplified in the proliferation of bilateral and multilateral currency-swap arrangements (http://www.globaleconomicgovernance.org/geg-wp-2015108-international-lender-last-resort-emerging-countries-bilateral-currency-swap). For example, the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization (http://efsd.eabr.org/e/parthners_acf_e/RFAs_acf_e/CMIM_e/) involves the ASEAN countries, plus China, Japan, and South Korea. And the Contingent Reserve Arrangement (http://brics.itamaraty.gov.br/media2/press-releases/220-treaty-for-the-establishment-of-a-brics-contingent-reserve-arrangement-fortaleza-july-15) (CRA) was created by the BRICS countries (Brazil, China, India, Russia, and South Africa). Swap contracts involve pre-committed resources, which are not transferred to an international organization with a specific institutional mission. Instead, foreign-exchange reserves – that is, liquidity in currencies accepted for international payments – are held in national agencies until a swap’s activation. This means that there is no guarantee that, in the event of a crisis, a central bank will actually provide the swap line it has pledged, at least not without attaching political strings. In the CRA, for example, members can opt out of providing support – and can request early repayment if a balance-of-payments need arises. Clearly, the world’s ever-expanding network of currency-swap arrangements is far from a reliable mechanism for responding to crisis. This is particularly problematic for the emerging economies, which are especially vulnerable now. Turkey, which currently holds the G-20 presidency, and China, which will take over next year, should have plenty of motivation to demand action to create safeguards against today’s liquidity risks. Beyond urging the US to approve IMF governance reforms, both countries should be hard at work building a coalition of the willing and designing an effective crisis-response mechanism. So far, Turkey seems to be falling short, promoting an overcrowded and ineffective agenda. One hopes that its leaders come to their senses fast, so that the upcoming summit can produce the results that past summits have failed to provide – and that the world needs more than ever. Canada’s Flaherty says G20 likely to meet before February economy watch: EM starts the week off on softer footing, as Friday’s jobs report supports the notion of December Fed lift-off. USD/ZAR is making new all-time highs, and we expect most of EM to revisit the lows from August and September as the lift-off approaches. Barring a disastrous November jobs report, we believe a rate hike will happen on December 16. As such, we remain negative on EM near-term. Recent China data suggest downside risks to regional growth, but the likelihood of further PBOC easing may help limit negative spillover into wider EM sentiment. Confidence in India was dented by the ruling BJP loss in the Bihar state elections this weekend (see today’s report “India Election Results Sours the Mood”). Political risk remains high in Brazil, but it has fallen in Turkey. Mexico reports October CPI later today, and expects to 2.48% y/y vs. 2.52% in September. This would be another all-time low, and there are simply no price pressures. September IP and October ANTAD retail sales will report Wednesday. IP expects to rise 1.2% y/y vs. 1.0% in August, while sales expect to rise 8.1% y/y vs. 8.0% in September. Central bank minutes will release Thursday. The tone of the statement was very dovish, and so we would expect the minutes to show a similar tone as well. Earlier today, Mexico reported China reports October CPI and PPI Tuesday. The former expects to rise 1.5% y/y, while the latter expects to fall -5.9% y/y. New money and loan data expect sometime this week. October retail sales and IP will report Wednesday. The former expects to rise 10.9% y/y, while the latter expects to rise 5.8% y/y. Data should in general support the notion that the economy is stabilizing, but we still look for further PBOC easing. Hungary reports October CPI Tuesday, and expects to be flat y/y vs. -0.4% in September. Hungary reports Q3 GDP Friday, and expects to rise 2.5% y/y vs. 2.7% in Q2. With deflation risks still high and the economy slowing, central bank officials have turned more dovish recently. Forward guidance extends to 2017 (perhaps even longer) and they raised the possibility of unconventional measures. Brazil reports the first preview of November IGP-M wholesale inflation Tuesday, and expects to rise 1.16% m/m. If sustained for the month, the y/y would rise to 10.3% from 10.3% in October. September retail sales will report Thursday, and expect at -7.3% y/y vs. -6.9% in August. The economy remains too weak to hike rates any further, though it remains to see how markets react to steadily climbing inflation.
South Africa reports September manufacturing production Tuesday, and expects to contract -2.5% y/y vs. -0.2% in August. SARB next meets on November 19. With the economy still weak, we think the central bank will find it hard to continue its tightening cycle after restarting it with a 25 bp hike to 6% back in July. We believe that political realities (unemployment above 25%) and social unrest will prevent this scenario from unfolding. Fiscal policy is also tightening, putting more headwinds on the economy. Turkey reports September current account data Wednesday, and expects at -$80 mln vs. -$163 mln in August. If so, the 12-month total would fall sharply to -$40.8 bln from -$43 bln in August. The external accounts continue to improve, but more from collapsing imports than strong exports. We think that with the election over, the central bank may come under more pressure to cut rates. Bank of Korea meets Thursday and expects to keep rates steady at 1.5%. Although core CPI remains elevated at 2.1% y/y, headline is running at a relatively benign 0.9% y/y in October, and is below the 2.5-3.5% target range. We suspect the bank will prefer to see the reaction from the first Fed hike before pulling the trigger. The BOK will gauge the effects of fiscal stimulus before it acts again. The last move was a 25 bp cut to 1.5% in June. The Philippine central bank meets Thursday and expects to keep rates steady at 4%. Data has come in on the firm side recently, despite the external headwinds. Inflation remains very subdued at 0.4% y/y in October, well below the 2-4% target range. However, upside risks are present due to the El Nino effect and its pass-through. Monetary policy seems to be roughly in balance. The last move was a 25 bp hike in its policy rates in September 2014. India reports September IP and October CPI Thursday. The former expects to rise 4.9% y/y, while the latter expects to rise 4.85% y/y. The next policy meeting for India is on December 1. Price pressures appear to be picking up, with CPI inflation moving toward the top of the 2-6% target range. WPI contracted -4.5% y/y, however, pointing to no pipeline pressures. The last move was a 50 bp cut in its policy rates in September. Chile central bank meets Thursday and expects to keep rates steady at 3.25%. The market is mixed, however. Of the 20 analysts polled by Bloomberg, 6 see a 25 bp hike and 14 see no change. CPI rose 4.0% y/y in October, and is right at the top of the 2-4% target range. The last move by the central bank was a 25 bp hike to 3.25% in October that started the tightening cycle, but we know that they also discussed no hike. With the economy sluggish and inflation falling, do not expect the tightening cycle to be an aggressive one. Earlier today, Chile reported October trade. Peru central bank meets Thursday and expects to keep rates steady at 3.5%. The last move was a 25 bp hike to 3.5% in September that started the tightening cycle. Inflation was 3.66% y/y in September, still above the 1-3% target range. However, it has fallen from the 4% y/y peak in August and disinflation should continue. The economy remains sluggish and so an aggressive tightening cycle seems unlikely. Malaysia reports Q3 GDP and current account data Friday. Growth expects to ease to 4.7% y/y from 4.9% in Q2. The central bank left rates steady last week, but it noted, “Downside risks to growth remain high. The performance of the Malaysian economy continues to be affected by the weak external environment” and it added that private consumption expects to moderate. We think it will lean more dovish and perhaps ease in 2016 if the slowdown continues. The weak ringgit is a constraint on cutting rates near-term. The last move was a 25 bp hike to 3.25% in July 2014. Czech Republic reports Q3 GDP Friday, and expects to rise 4.2% y/y vs. 4.6% in Q2. Last week, the central bank left policy steady but altered its forward guidance slightly. It now sees current policies maintained until “around” the end of 2016. Previously, it said until “at least” H2 2016. Deflation risks continue, with October CPI coming in earlier today at 0.2% y/y vs. 0.4% expected. If the data turn down again, we would not rule out an adjustment to the floor itself, rather than just the forward guidance. Poland reports Q3 GDP Friday, and growth expects to remain steady at 3.3% y/y. It also reports September trade and current account data Friday. Like the rest of the CEE region, Poland is facing continued deflation risks and headwinds to the economy. We see the central bank on hold through the end of 2015, but expect easing to resume when incoming Law and Justice will replace virtually the entire MPC. Emerging Markets: Week Ahead Preview (http://www.marctomarket.com/2015/11/emerging-markets-week-ahead-preview.html) is republished with permission from Marc to Market (http://www.marctomarket.com/) 3:20pm EDT By Annika Breidthardt BERLIN (Reuters) – G20 leaders are likely to meet before their next scheduled summit in February to try and restore market confidence battered by the euro zone debt crisis, Canada’s finance minister said on Saturday, while Germany’s Angela Merkel said it would take a decade to turn around the currency bloc. “It looks like we’re going to have yet another meeting … The consensus view (among the G20) is that we cannot wait that long (until February meeting in Mexico). We do need to restore market confidence,” Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said during a panel discussion in Berlin. G20 leaders failed at a summit in Cannes this week to secure new money from potential investors such as China and Brazil for efforts to overcome the euro zone debt crisis, which continues to unnerve financial markets as political turmoil in Greece has jeopardised a new Greek bailout agreement and Italy’s high debt has become a focus of market attention. German Chancellor Merkel said there was a lot of work to be done to solve the crisis and it could take a decade before the euro zone was in a better situation. “(It will) certainly take a decade until we are in a better position again,” Merkel said in her weekly podcast on Saturday. “We have a whole chunk of work ahead of us, I’ve got to say.” In Greece, Prime Minister George Papandreou, who survived a confidence vote on Friday but is expected to step down, said negotiations to form a coalition government would start soon. He called for a broad-based government to secure a bailout from the euro zone, the main weapon in Europe’s battle against the spreading economic crisis. While euro zone leaders have pressed China to put money in the currency bloc’s bailout fund, an influential adviser to China’s government said on Saturday that Europe should not count on Beijing.
“China certainly hopes the debt crisis could be resolved. If the crisis spreads, it could lead to a break-up of the euro zone and affect the global monetary system as the euro is the second-largest reserve currency,” Cheng Siwei, a former top Chinese lawmaker, told reporters in Beijing. “But don’t pin high hopes on China. China cannot be a hero to the rescue,” he said. “China will lend a helping hand within its capacity but Europe must rely on itself. Merkel said all of Europe had overspent for years but welcomed that all euro zone members had agreed to a debt brake like Germany’s. “Almost all European countries have spent more over the years than they earned,” she said. (Writing by Susan Fenton) G-20 Balks at IMF Aid on Europe’s Failure to Stem Crisis By Simon Kennedy and Sandrine Rastello – Nov 5, 2011 7:02 AM GMT+0700 Enlarge image German Chancellor Angela Merkel German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Group of 20 leaders meeting in the French resport of Cannes failed to agree on International Monetary Fund resources. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg G-20 Meeting, IMF Funding, Greek Crisis Play Video Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) — Juergen Michels, chief euro-area economist at Citigroup Inc., talks about the G-20’s failure to reach an agreement on increasing the International Monetary Fund’s resources and the outlook for the Greek debt crisis. He speaks on Bloomberg Television’s “InBusiness with Margaret Brennan.” (Source: Bloomberg) G-20 Meeting, IMF Funding, Greek Referendum Play Video Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) — Stuart Eizenstat, a partner at Covington & Burling and a former deputy Treasury secretary, talks about the Group of 20 summit in Cannes, France, and the failure of world leaders to agree on increasing resources of the International Monetary Fund. Eizenstat, speaking with Betty Liu on Bloomberg Television’s “In the Loop,” also discusses Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou. (Source: Bloomberg) Enlarge image British Prime Minister David Cameron British Prime Minister David Cameron said, “The job of the IMF is to help countries in distress, not to support currency systems.” Photographer: Dan Kitwood/Pool via Bloomberg Enlarge image French President Nicolas Sarkozy French President Nicolas Sarkozy said it may take until February for a deal. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg World leaders balked at writing new checks to help bail out the euro-area, demanding its own governments first do more to fix the two-year-old debt crisis. Global policy makers demanded more details of a week-old rescue package before they commit fresh cash to the International Monetary Fund, which could then lend to Europe’s bailout facility, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said at the end of a Group of 20 summit in Cannes, France. French President Nicolas Sarkozy said a deal may not come before February. “The worst thing to do would be to try and cook up a number without being clear who was agreeing to what,” British Prime Minister David Cameron told reporters yesterday after the twoday gathering ended. “The job of the IMF is to help countries in distress, not to support currency systems.” The refusal of major economies to stump up money now reflected irritation with Europe’s failure to resolve its crisis and foiled investor hopes that the summit would mark a turning point. The turmoil instead flared again before Greece’s government survived a confidence vote in parliament early today and Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi accepted IMF monitoring. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou won 153 votes in the 330-seat parliamentary chamber after saying he’ll begin discussions with opposition parties on creating a unity government as he tries to reach an accord on a European aid package needed to avert default. Join Up “There really are hardly any countries here that said they will join up” with the European Financial Stability Facility, Merkel told reporters, as she committed Europe to speeding up implementation of an Oct. 27 accord to boost the power of its EFSF rescue fund, recapitalize banks and write down Greece’s debt. European and U.S. stocks fell, as did the euro. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index recorded its biggest weekly loss in six weeks and the euro declined 2.5 percent from last week to $1.3792. Tenyear Italian bond yields rose to a euro-era high, while rates on 10-year German debt capped the biggest weekly drop on record. In a statement blaming Europe for fanning financial market tensions, the G-20 said it would ensure the IMF “continues to have resources to play its systemic role” and left it to its finance chiefs to debate how to provide more funds if needed. Capital Buffers The leaders approved a plan in which Deutsche Bank AG (DBK), BNP Paribas (BNP) SA, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and 26 other banks will face additional capital buffers. The G20 also agreed to limit the risks posed by so-called “too big to fail” banks and called on regulators to examine the effect of credit-default swaps on bond prices. Beefing up their language on exchange rates, they vowed to “move more rapidly toward market-determined” currencies, and in an appendix welcomed China’s “determination” to increase the yuan’s flexibility. The group made progress on a future financial-transaction tax, Sarkozy said. Europe’s bosses had planned to showcase their new crisis- fighting plan on the French Riviera and secure outside support for a doubling of the EFSF’s 440 billion euro ($607 billion) spending strength to protect bigger economies such as Italy from contagion spawned two years ago in Greece. That strategy blew up on the eve of the meeting when Papandreou called a referendum he later retracted and as Italy came under the spotlight of investors. Good News “Markets are constantly searching for good news and opportunities,” Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper said. “The sooner European leaders and others can simply confirm they’re moving forward, I think that would be the quickest way to get us out of this crisis of confidence.” U.S. President Barack Obama said he’d had a “crash course” in European politics and that it’s important for its governments to send a “clear signal that the European project is alive and well.” The chaos in Europe led countries from China to Russia and Brazil to say they would hold off pledging money even as they signaled a willingness to eventually do so through the IMF. The Washington-based lender can attach strings to its aid. The BRICS group of emerging economies, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, will decide on a “financial contribution” to the euro region in “coming weeks,” said Arkady Dvorkovich, the economic adviser to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev. Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff said she “has no plans or intentions to make any direct contribution” to Europe and that China told her it would also rather use the IMF. War Chest Options for bolstering the IMF’s $391 billion war chest when the time comes include opening a trust fund or not rolling back a 2009 cash increase. They also discussed increasing the amount of the fund’s Special Drawing Rights. The G-20 agreed to have the IMF create a new, six-month line of credit for countries “with strong policies and fundamentals.” “Whatever number, you would have found it too small,” IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde told reporters. “It’s much better to have a very strong unanimous support to do whatever it takes.” Athens remained a focal point as Papandreou struggled to cling on to power amid a fourth year of recession. Politicians are trying to map out a plan to put in place a new government to ratify the rescue package as European powers froze 8 billion euros in assistance that Greece needs to dodge default. Plan Backfires Papandreou’s Oct. 31 decision to hold a ballot on the bailout backfired by splitting his party, roiling markets and drawing taboo-breaking warnings from EU powers that it could cost Greece its euro membership. Prodded by counterparts, Berlusconi accepted IMF auditing of efforts to cut the euro area’s second-largest debt burden after Greece. While he has promised steps such as a higher retirement age and state-asset sales, investors say they don’t go far enough and his ability to push legislation through Parliament is hampered by the defection of two lawmakers from the ruling party. “Berlusconi is conscious of the doubts that surround his plan,” Sarkozy said. The Italian premier said the surveillance had been “requested, not imposed” and that he turned down an offer of IMF money. “We have thanked them and said we didn’t need those funds,” he said.
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lapangDADA: chinA #1 (amrik tetap SUPERPOWER)
ch1na maseh BERTUMBUH seh (http://chinaatawaamrik.blogspot.com/2016/03/ch1na-tumbuh-nkembang.html)
detik: Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) dijadwalkan mengumumkan mata uang Cina, yuan, menjadi bagian dari gabungan mata uang cadangan kelompok pendanaan tersebut. Saat ini hanya dolar Amerika Serikat, euro, yen Jepang dan poundsterling Inggris yang menjadi bagian dari kelompok ini. Permulaan bulan ini, Direktur IMF, Christine Lagarde, mendukung dimasukkannya yuan dalam kelompok ini. Cina adalah ekonomi kedua terbesar dunia setelah AS dan telah meminta yuan menjadi mata uang cadangan tahun lalu. Mata uang cadangan dipakai bank sentral dan organisasi keuangan lainnya untuk membantu membayar utang internasional dan menjaga tingkat suku bunga yang stabil. Perubahan terakhir yang dilakukan terhadap kelompok ini adalah pada tahun 2000 ketika euro menggantikan deutschmark Jerman dan franc Prancis. Para pengamat mengisyaratkan, begitu yuan diterima IMF, pada tahun 2030 mata uang ini akan menjadi satu dari tiga mata uang utama dunia, bersama dolar dan euro. Kekhawatiran apakah Beijing dapat mempertahankan yuan pada tingkat yang rendah (http://www.bbc.com/indonesia/dunia/2010/06/100620_stableyuan) untuk membantu pengekspor adalah salah satu alasan mata uang yang sebelumnya gagal memenuhi persyaratan mata uang cadangan yang ditetapkan IMF. INILAHCOM. Lima — Christine Lagarde, direktur pelaksana Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF), mengatakan hak veto AS untuk mencegah reformasi IMF membuat kredibilitas lembaga itu dalam bahaya.”Ini masalah kredibilitas dan keterwakilan lembaga, terutama vis-a-vis negara-negara yang kurang terwakili,” kata Lagarde dalam pertemuan tahunan IMF di Lima — ibu kota Peru. IMF terjebak dalam konflik berlarut-larut antara mereka yang menginginkan reformasi dan tidak. AS ingin terus mendominasi, sedangkan perekonomian global terus berubah, dengan China muncul sebagai raksasa ekonomi baru. Sebagai kekuatan ekonomi kedua terbesar di dunia, China hanya memiliki kurang empat persen hak suara. China diperlakukan sama dengan Italia, yang perekonomiannya hanya seperlima dari Tiongkok. Menurut Lagarde, hanya reformasi yang akan meningkatkan keterwakilan China — dan negara-negara ekonomi maju yang baru muncul — di IMF.
Menariknya, Washington yang kali pertama mendorong reformasi di IMF dan Presiden Barrack Obama berulang kali memberi dukungan. Namun, Kongres AS — selama tiga tahun terakhir — menolak menanda-tangani kesepakatan reformasi. Lebih dari itu, sejumlah anggota parlemen AS menolak berkontribusi lebih banyak untuk reformasi IMF, karena akan mengikis dominasi Paman Sam di lembaga itu. “Saya hanya bisa berharap AS benar-benar menghargai kebutuhan untuk memperkuat IMF,” kata Lagarde. – See more at: http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2243884/lagarde-astak-rela-kehilangan-dominasi-di-imf#sthash.2hgCkWUZ.dpuf (http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2243884/lagarde-as-tak-rela-kehilangan-dominasi-diimf#sthash.2hgCkWUZ.dpuf) WASHINGTON wsj—The Obama administration softened its criticism of Beijing’s currency policy, citing a shift in global economic winds as well as China’s moves to allow market forces a greater role in setting the value of the yuan. The U.S. Treasury Department, in its semiannual report on currencies Monday, said the yuan is “below its appropriate medium-term valuation.” In the previous report it said the currency was “significantly undervalued.” The shift in Washington’s tone comes after Beijing in August adjusted its currency policy to let the yuan, also known as the renminbi, move more easily with the market. That change, accompanied by a sharp depreciation, triggered immediate concern on Capitol Hill and Wall Street because many worried China would devalue its currency further to gain a trade advantage. The International Monetary Fund has commended China’s recent moves, but officials in Washington said Monday they would watch Beijing’s next steps closely. “Treasury is carefully monitoring the implementation of the new exchange-rate policy approach and how it will work in practice—specifically, whether China will allow the renminbi to respond to market forces for appreciation as well as for depreciation,” the report said. The Treasury Department also pointed to the uncertain outlook for the global economy, and the related volatility in markets, as a new, more complicated backdrop against which to judge the yuan. The yuan may have little additional scope for near-term appreciation against the dollar because both currencies have been appreciating significantly against other currencies. “The near-term trajectory of the renminbi is difficult to assess,” Treasury said in the report. “However, our judgment is that the renminbi remains below its appropriate medium-term valuation.” At a daily press briefing on Tuesday, a spokeswoman for China’s Foreign Ministry said the Chinese government will press ahead with exchange-rate reforms in an orderly way. China’s latest economic twists have put the administration of Barack Obama in a tough spot. On the one hand, the U.S., like the IMF, has been pressing Beijing to let market forces play a bigger role in setting the yuan exchange rate. But when Chinese authorities did allow more freedom for the yuan in recent months—at a time when investors grew more concerned about slowing economic growth— the currency weakened sharply against the dollar, conflicting with Washington’s longtime calls for a stronger yuan. “A falling yuan and a rising bilateral U.S. trade deficit with China will sharpen congressional criticism of China’s currency policies, but the administration has little economic basis for criticizing China’s move toward greater exchange rate flexibility,” said Eswar Prasad, a China expert at Cornell University and a former senior China official at the International Monetary Fund. The IMF earlier this year said the yuan was no longer undervalued (http://www.wsj.com/articles/imf-official-says-chinese-yuan-no-longer-undervalued-1432634534). But U.S. officials maintain it is still undervalued against the currencies of its trading partners and expect it to strengthen over time—if China allows the same flexibility when the yuan is strengthening as when it weakens. Since June 2010, the yuan has strengthened nearly 30%, based on its inflation-adjusted effective rate. A weak yuan tends to make Chinese imports more competitive compared with American-made goods. U.S. imports from China in the first eight months of the year were quadruple the level of exports to China, generating a trade deficit with Beijing of $237.3 billion, compared with $216.7 billion in the same period of 2014. China’s surprise move in August to change its exchange-rate policy was followed by currency depreciation in other countries, from Vietnam to Kazakhstan. Japanese officials also discussed the need to weaken the yen, feeding worries that Beijing’s depreciation could lead to a dangerous round of competitive devaluations. Chinese officials expect the yuan to move little in either direction in the near term. A still-healthy growth rate “suggests that the renminbi will be more or less stable at a rate more or less close to its equilibrium level,” said People’s Bank of China’s Deputy Gov. Yi Gang (http://topics.wsj.com/person/G/Yi-Gang/7164) at the IMF’s annual meeting this month in Lima, Peru. China’s move in August to let the yuan fall against the dollar, then prop up the local currency didn’t represent a reversal of market-friendly reforms but rather an attempt to stamp out market volatility, Mr. Yi said. The IMF last month said China had begun reporting its currency reserves to the international organization, a milestone as Beijing seeks to have its currency included in the IMF’s basket of reserve currencies. Not everyone thinks China is ready for reserve-currency status, especially on Capitol Hill, where U.S. lawmakers in both parties blame China for artificially cheapening its currency for years, hurting U.S. manufacturers. “Given their behavior, the IMF should absolutely not allow the yuan to become a global reserve currency,” said Sen. Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.), in a statement. “They’re continuing to have government manipulation, government intervention in the currency market that disadvantages American manufacturers,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R., S.C.), a candidate for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. “The facts do not justify this report, let’s put it that way.” China, Japan and other Asian countries have generated major criticism from Congress this year, because many lawmakers say a major trade agreement the U.S. concluded this month should have included enforceable rules to punish countries deemed to have manipulated their currencies. While they didn’t agree on enforceable rules that would result in trade sanctions, finance ministers of the dozen countries in the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiated a currency framework alongside the trade agreement. Under the deal, whose details haven’t been released yet, countries would affirm international standards for exchange rates, agree to be more transparent about their interventions in currency markets and set up annual consultations to deal with concerns, officials say. Those annual consultations would be analogous to the talks triggered when the Treasury Department declares a country a currency manipulator, a rare step it hasn’t taken in decades. The devaluation in China—not a member of the TPP trade bloc—and the congressional consideration of the trade agreement ensure the currency issue will be a sensitive one in coming months and during the 2016 election season. Beyond China, the Treasury cited economic imbalances—in South Korea, Germany, the Netherlands and other major exporters—that are limiting the ability of other economies to recover. “The adjustment process, both within the euro area and globally, would function much better if countries with large current-account surpluses took strong action to boost investment and domestic demand,” the report said. Oil’s sharp drop is boosting some imbalances further in countries that import the fuel in Europe and Asia, the Treasury Department said. —Lingling Wei in Beijing contributed to this article. Zurich, Oct 13, 2015 (AFP) China’s middle class has overtaken the United States to become the world’s largest, Credit Suisse said Tuesday in its latest report on global wealth. Asia will be the scene for the greatest expansion of the world’s middle class, it predicted. The Swiss bank said with 109 million adults “this year, the Chinese middle class for the first time outnumbered” that in the United States at 92 million. While the number of middle class worldwide grew last year at a slower pace than the wealthy, it “will continue to expand in emerging economies overall, with a lion’s share of that growth to occur in Asia,” Credit Suisse chief executive Tidjane Thiam said in a statement accompanying the bank’s annual Global Wealth Report. “As a result, we will see changing consumption patterns as well as societal changes as, historically, the middle class has acted as an agent of stability and prosperity,” he added. The report said size and wealth of the middle class was a key factor in economic development, and the middle class was often at the heart of political movements and new consumption trends. The report used a floor for the middle class as having wealth double the annual medium income for their country. While wealth may still be mostly concentrated in Europe and the United States, Thiam said “the growth of wealth in emerging markets has been most impressive, including a fivefold rise in China since the beginning of the century.” China now accounts for a fifth of the world population, while holding nearly 10 percent of the global wealth. Overall, the report found that global wealth fell by nearly 5 percent in the year to mid-2015 to $250 trillion due a strengthening of the US dollar in which income is compared. However if currency effects are stipped out, wealth continued to expand at the trend rate since the beginning of the century. China’s GDP methodologies are largely in line with international practices it’s really 7 percent, but our numbers indicate that it is at least that China’s economy is bigger, not smaller than official data suggests, the analysts found, with the services sector the hardest to measure and real estate even more important than currently reflected. That isn’t deterring Mobius, who says: “The transition is definitely on its way and is going to be successful.” PIMCO: CYCLICAL OUTLOOK January 2016
Emerging Markets: Trying to Turn the Corner Michael A. Gomez (http://www.pimco.co.uk/EN/Experts/Pages/MichaelGomez.aspx), Lupin Rahman (http://www.pimco.co.uk/EN/Experts/Pages/LupinRahman.aspx) For Brazil, Russia, India and Mexico (BRIM) as a whole, we expect growth to rise modestly and inflation to fall, but there is a dichotomy, with Brazil and Russia in recession. There are signs of macroeconomic stabilization, although risks are skewed to the downside as the Federal Reserve raises rates, commodities remain at recent lows and the slowdown in China adds uncertainty and potential volatility. We think it is still possible that emerging markets could turn the corner over the course of this year, but we are closely watching how events unfold, particularly with regard to China. In the following interview, Michael Gomez, head of emerging markets portfolio management, and Lupin Rahman, emerging markets portfolio manager, discuss the conclusions from PIMCO’s quarterly Cyclical Forum, in which the company’s investment professionals debated the outlook for the global economy and markets. They share PIMCO’s outlook for the emerging markets (EM) over the next 12 months. Q: What is PIMCO’s outlook for growth and inflation in the emerging markets of Brazil, Russia, India and Mexico (BRIM)? Michael Gomez: For BRIM as a whole, we expect growth to improve modestly and inflation to fall. The outlook is mixed, however. There are signs of macroeconomic stabilization across most economies, but risks are skewed to the downside as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates and commodities remain at recent lows, suggesting a more bumpy recovery than in previous cycles. The slowdown in China, together with the potential for greater-than-expected currency depreciation, adds further uncertainty and potential volatility to this outlook. We expect BRIM growth in 2016 to improve to the 1.25%-2.25% range from 0.5% in 2015, but there is a clear dichotomy. Two of the four economies, Brazil and Russia, are still in recession. Brazil, in particular, is experiencing a sharp contraction on the back of elevated political uncertainty and policy gridlock; we expect growth to bottom out in 2016 but fall short of a V-shaped recovery, possibly turning positive only in 2017. The Russian economy will likely remain weak with the drop in oil prices. By contrast, our forecast is for Mexico to grow about 3%, and we think India will continue to shine within EM, with growth of about 7.5% in the coming year. On the inflation front, we expect moderation to 5.5%6.5% in BRIM this year from 8.7% in 2015, given base effects and lower pass-through from weaker currencies. Once again, Brazil is the outlier, where we expect higher-than-consensus inflation. In general, inflation has tended to come down more slowly in Brazil than in other EM economies because of structural rigidities, such as indexation. Q: How does the likely path of Federal Reserve monetary policy – PIMCO expects three interest rate hikes in 2016 – affect the outlook for emerging markets, both for their economies and financial markets? Gomez: Historically, EM central banks have followed the Fed, but their flexibility in setting monetary policy has been increasing over time. The tightening cycles in 1994 and the early 2000s came alongside periods of volatility and crisis in emerging markets, and EM central banks were forced to hike interest rates to shore up their currencies. In contrast, during the 2004 Fed hike, most emerging markets had already delevered and built up large stocks of foreign exchange reserves, giving their central banks more flexibility to tailor the policy response, and the EM rate cycle was relatively shallow. Since then, EM flexibility has improved further: Most countries now have floating exchange rates, which should allow their economies to better adjust to external shocks than in the past. So looking ahead, while we expect most EM central banks to hike rates eventually, they are better prepared to vary the timing and pace of their rate increases. This is particularly important because with the current backdrop generally characterized by negative output gaps and contained inflation pressures, most emerging markets (aside from a handful) would prefer to delay hiking rates. Indeed, real rates across EM have diverged markedly over the past year, with Asian real policy rates at recent highs, emerging European real rates close to zero and Latin American rates showing wide dispersion. Idiosyncratic factors, such as political dysfunction in Brazil and the impact of low oil prices on Russia’s and Mexico’s fiscal balances, mean that central bank policy cycles likely will continue to diverge from each other, and from the Fed, rather than be perfectly synchronized. Q: And how do currencies factor in? Lupin Rahman: A critical driver for central bank policy will be how EM currencies respond to the Fed tightening. We expect any sharp bouts of weakness will likely be followed by eventual EM hikes. One question we always ask ourselves is whether EM currencies have adjusted fully to reflect the latest macro and market developments or whether there is more to go. On average, EM currencies have depreciated by roughly 20% since January 2014, with some like the Russian ruble and Brazilian real weakening by more than 40%. While these moves are large and the bulk of the adjustment looks to be done, our sense is that there is more to go, especially if commodities remain under pressure. This, together with our outlook for below-consensus growth of 5.5%-6.5% this year in China and our expectation for gradual depreciation and volatility in the yuan, point to further underperformance by Asian currencies (particularly those tied closely to China’s growth) relative to the U.S. dollar. Q: We have had two downgrades to high yield status among the BRIM economies in the past two years: Brazil and Russia. Are EM credit ratings now in line with fundamentals or are there pockets of risk overlooked by the market? Rahman: The combination of a slower China, lower commodity prices and lower secular growth rates for EM no doubt has taken its toll on the credit quality of emerging markets. The commodity boom was a key driver of the upward ratings migration for EM over the last decade, so with the sharp decline in prices – both oil and iron ore have fallen roughly 40% in the past year alone – this trend has not only stalled but is showing signs of reversing. In addition to the downgrades of Russia and Brazil, we are seeing an increase in sovereign credit risk with the defaults in Argentina in 2014 and Ukraine in 2015. Looking ahead, we don’t expect major changes in ratings (in either direction) in the BRIM economies, but within the broader EM universe, we see Turkey, South Africa and the commodityproducing African economies as vulnerable to downgrades. On the positive side, Argentina, which has just elected a new government led by President Mauricio Macri, could see upward rating movement over the next 12 months. Q: How should investors think about emerging markets in 2016? Gomez: As we have seen in the opening weeks of 2016, EM remains vulnerable to risk-off sentiment and the cyclical headwinds we mentioned Fed hikes, China’s slowdown and commodity weakness as well as lower market liquidity. Bearing these in mind, we are keeping EM positioning light and leaving “dry powder” to add positions if further market dislocations materialize. Nevertheless, we see positive signs within emerging markets. Debt servicing capacity has a high resilience to shocks, valuations have adjusted and negative technicals may be receding as outflows moderate and gross issuance declines. We think it is still possible that emerging markets could turn the corner over the course of this year, but we are closely watching how events unfold, particularly with regard to China. In the meantime, we see opportunity in select parts of the asset class: Short positions in Asian currencies would be our top pick, followed by exposures to select quasi-sovereigns, where prices already reflect a lot of downside risks but credit quality has a high degree of resilience, in part due to support from solid sovereign balance sheets. We also think some countries with strong fundamentals have fallen in sympathy with the rest of EM over the past year and may offer good value. Among these are economies, such as Mexico and India, with growing domestic demand and less reliance on commodities and on China.
Beijing, March 10, 2016 (AFP) China’s consumer inflation jumped to 2.3 percent in February, the biggest rise in nearly two years, official data showed Thursday, in a positive sign for demand in the world’s second-largest economy.Food prices surged during the annual Lunar New Year holiday, with pork prices jumping 25.4 percent year-on-year, and vegetables up a hefty 30.6 percent.The rise in the consumer price index (CPI) released by the National Bureau of Statistics was the largest since July 2014, and came in ahead of market forecasts of 1.8 percent in a survey by Bloomberg News. The producer price index (PPI), which measures prices of goods at the factory gate, fell 4.9 percent year-on-year, meeting expectations and an improvement on January’s 5.3 percent drop. But it was the 48th consecutive monthly fall as overcapacity in manufacturing drags on China’s growth, with the protracted PPI declines boding ill for industrial prospects. Moderate inflation can be a boon to consumption as it pushes buyers to act before prices go up, while falling prices encourage shoppers to delay purchases and companies to put off investment, both of which can hurt growth. Analysts expected a rise in CPI due to a traditional surge in demand for the week-long holiday, known as the Spring Festival in China, as well as unusually cold winter weather in February pushing up food prices. The increase was “mainly impacted by the cold snap and the Spring Festival”, National Bureau of Statistics analyst Yu Qiumei said in a statement. “Most of the country was hit by wind storms, a temperature drop, rain and snow storms in the middle of February, affecting the production and transportation of fresh vegetables,” Yu said, adding that vegetable prices surged 29.9 percent from January, the highest monthly rise since March 2008. Analysts with ANZ Research noted that the spike in food prices was temporary, and therefore consumer inflation was likely to be “mild” in coming months. As the inflation rate was “significantly below the government’s 3% target”, they added, the central bank “will need to inject more liquidity to the real economy”. Transportation and tourism prices also went up by large margins, lifted by the flood of workers heading home for the holidays, often called the largest annual human migration in the world. Resulting staff shortages contributed to upward price pressure in some sectors, Yu said. Car repair and hair dressing prices rose 6.9 percent and 5.7 percent respectively from a month ago. The inflation figures are a positive sign for China’s economy, which saw its slowest growth rate in a quarter of a century last year as Beijing strives to effect a difficult transition in the country’s economic model away from reliance on exports and fixed-asset investment towards one driven by consumers.
By Abhiram Nandakumar (Reuters) – Wall Street was lower on Tuesday after weak Chinese data rekindled fears of a global economic slowdown led by the world’s second-biggest economy. China’s February trade performance was far worse than economists had expected, with exports tumbling the most in over six years. The data weighed on markets worldwide. “(The China data) suggests the fragile nature of the market’s psychology right now,” said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James in St. Petersburg, Florida. “People are still very much nervous. You are now starting to get a bit of a debate about whether things have gotten overdone,” he said. Crude prices shed their gains and were down about 2 percent. Oil has recovered from the 2016 low touched in January, but Goldman Sachs analysts on Tuesday said the recent rally was premature as prices would need to remain lower to help rebalance the market later in the year. The S&P materials (SPLRCM (http://www.investing.com/indices/s-p-500-materials)) and energy sector (SPNY (http://www.investing.com/indices/s-p-500-energy)) led all 10 major S&P sectors lower, with a more than 1 percent decline each. At 9:39 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones industrial average (DJI (http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30)) was down 84.02 points, or 0.49 percent, at 16,989.93, the S&P 500 (SPX (http://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500)) was down 13.35 points, or 0.67 percent, at 1,988.41 and the Nasdaq Composite index (IXIC (http://www.investing.com/indices/nasdaqcomposite)) was down 35.30 points, or 0.75 percent, at 4,672.95. Investors are focusing on data for clues on the state of the global economy and monetary policies of central banks across the world. The European Central Bank is expected to announce further stimulus at its meeting later this week. In contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve is looking to raise interest rates this year as a raft of data suggested the economic recovery in the United States was gaining momentum. The positive sentiment helped the S&P 500 to its first five-day streak of gains since October and close above 2,000 for the first time since Jan. 5 on Monday. Apple (O:AAPL (http://www.investing.com/equities/apple-computer-inc)) was the biggest drag on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, while Goldman Sachs (N:GS (http://www.investing.com/equities/goldman-sachs-group)) weighed on the Dow. Shares of Urban Outfitters (O:URBN (http://www.investing.com/equities/urban-outfitters)) were up 11 percent at $31.28, after the company reported better-than-expected sales for its bohemian-inspired Free People brand. Shake Shack (N:SHAK (http://www.investing.com/equities/shake-shack-inc)) shed 10 percent to $37.86 after the burger chain issued disappointing results and forecast. Dick’s Sporting Goods (N:DKS (http://www.investing.com/equities/dick's-sporting-goods-inc)) was down 3.5 percent at $42.86 after the company forecast first-quarter profit below estimates. AutoNation (N:AN (http://www.investing.com/equities/autonation-inc)) was down 3.2 percent at $51.14 after Goldman Sachs cut its rating on the stock to “sell”. Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by 1,973 to 665. On the Nasdaq, 1,607 issues fell and 602 advanced. The S&P 500 index showed six new 52-week highs and one new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 18 new highs and 13 new lows. Beijing, March 1, 2016 (AFP) Manufacturing activity in China shrank at its fastest rate in four years in February, government data showed Tuesday, a fresh sign of sustained weakness in the world’s second-largest economy. The official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which tracks activity in factories and workshops, fell to 49.0 last month, figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed. It was the lowest figure since 49.0 in November 2011, and was below the median forecast of 49.4 in a Bloomberg survey of economists. A reading above 50 signals expanding activity in the vital sector, while anything below indicates contraction, and investors watch the index closely as the first available official indicator of the country’s economic health each month. It was the seventh consecutive month that the official index showed contraction, which Bloomberg News said was the longest such series on record. The figures came only hours after the central People’s Bank of China cut the amount banks must hold in reserve, in Beijing’s latest attempt to tackle slowing growth. It trimmed the so-called reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for financial institutions by 0.50 percentage points, freeing up more funds for them to lend. China’s economy, a vital driver of global expansion, grew 6.9 percent last year, its weakest rate in a quarter of a century. China’s leaders — who targeted growth of “about seven percent” — are looking to transform the economy away from the investment and exports of the past to one more oriented towards domestic consumption, but the transition is proving bumpy, and the growth slowdown has alarmed investors worldwide. Tuesday’s NBS figures showed market demand “continued to fall” in February as the new orders sub-index slipped to 48.6 from 49.5 in January, while employment worsened with the jobs indicator falling by 0.2 points to 47.6. The private Caixin Purchasing Managers’ Index, which has a greater emphasis on smaller firms, came in at 48.0 for February, the lowest in five months, the Chinese financial magazine said in a joint statement issued with data compiler Markit. “The index readings for all key categories including output, new orders and employment signalled that conditions worsened, in line with signs that the economy’s road to stability remains bumpy,” He Fan, an economist at Caixin Insight Group, said in the statement. He urged policy makers to adopt “moderate stimulus policies” and give stronger support to the economy to “prevent it from falling off a cliff”. But investors took the figures in their stride, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index slipping 0.25 percent in morning trade, while the Shenzhen Composite Index, which tracks stocks on China’s second exchange, edged up 0.06 percent. wf/slb/jah
BANK OF CHINA
bloomberg: People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan sought to shore up global confidence in the world’s second-largest economy, saying policy makers still have room to act on the monetary front. China’s economy remains strong and its economic structure and quality is improving, Zhou said in a speech Friday at a conference in Shanghai. He was speaking as the two-day Group of 20 central bankers and finance ministers meeting gets underway, with China’s economic and currency outlook expected to be a key focus of discussions. Policy makers are striving to shore up slowing growth and counter yuan depreciation pressure as surging capital outflows burn through foreign-exchange reserves. Zhou was making his second (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-19/pboc-s-zhou-says-governments-should-play-role-when-markets-fail) public appearance in a week following months of silence as officials try to soothe anxiety over China’s currency in the wake of last year’s shock devaluation (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-11/china-weakens-yuan-reference-rateby-record-1-9-amid-slowdown). As China hosts the world’s top economic leaders in the same year the yuan gains reserve currency status from the International Monetary Fund, it’s finding its own policies are in the spotlight. Economic leaders such as IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde and U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew have called for better communication from the world’s second-biggest economy. There’s evidence that China is responding. Zhou said in a rare interview (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-14/pboc-ups-ante-in-quest-for-stability-as-zhou-breaks-longsilence) with Caixin magazine this month that there’s little reason to think the yuan should depreciate further. Zhou is also scheduled (http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/130721/3019515/index.html) to hold a press briefing today. Zhou said in Caixin the interview that there’s no basis for continued yuan depreciation, that the nation’s balance of payments is good, capital outflows are normal and the exchange rate is basically stable against a basket of currencies. China has no incentive to depreciate the currency to boost net exports, and there’s no direct link between the nation’s gross domestic product and its exchange rate, he said. China’s economic outlook will feature prominently at the G-20 meeting in Shanghai. Chinese officials have pinned the cause of recent global volatility on the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates in December for the first time in almost a decade.
BEIJING chinadaily – Despite slower growth and market volatility, China has plenty of good news to offer. Skyscanner, a global travel search site headquartered in the United Kingdom, is a case in point to question the fears about China. The company announced last week it saw a 67-percent jump in Chinese visitors to the site in2015, helping boost its revenue by 28 percent to $183 million. “We have to understand China better,” Shane Corstorphine, chief financial officer of Skyscanner, said in an interview with CNBC on Friday, calling increasing outbound travelfrom China “a major opportunity.” Concerns over China are natural, given the country’s economy is in its most protracted downshift since the late 1970s, which has been accompanied by recent stock market fluctuations and a weakening currency. However, a broader long-term perspective will help companies such as Skyscanner makemore sensible strategies for China. The sources of pressure are undeniable: soft property investment, bloated industries and slumping trade. But sound fundamentals justify a positive outlook for China’s future growth. That judgment led US computer chip giant Intel to invest $5.5 billion in its plant in northeast China’s Dalian city last October to produce the company’s most advanced memory chips. Intel cares more about China’s market demand five to 10 years from now than its GDP growthfor one year, said Richard Howarth, vice president of Intel’s Technology and ManufacturingGroup and general manager of Intel Semiconductor (Dalian) Ltd. For the moment, even though China recorded its slowest expansion in 25 years in 2015,employment and consumption remain resilient. The registered unemployment rate in China’s cities was 4.05 percent at the end of 2015,better than official targets. Consumption contributed 66.4 percent to economic growth, up15.4 percentage points from 2014. China also has enough ammunition to stop further deceleration, with the world’s largest foreign exchange reserves, a huge trade surplus, room for monetary and fiscal maneuvering, and a certain degree of capital control. Those conditions make the possibility of a crisis in China much smaller than in other economies, economist Marie Owens Thomsen of the French bank Credit Agricole wrote onthe Chinese website of the South China Morning Post during the weekend. Chinese vice finance minister Zhu Guangyao asserted on Saturday that China’s economy “willsurely continue to grow.” BEIJING: China has set its economic growth projection range at 6.5 to 7 per cent, an official from the country’s top economic planner said at a briefing on Wednesday (Feb 3). Xu Shaoshi, chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said downward pressure on the world’s second largest economy will remain in 2016. China will be affected by the unstable global economic conditions in 2016 but will have the ability to cope with the challenges, Mr Xu added, These comments came on the back of sluggish factory activity (http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/china-s-pmi-surveys/2476720.html), and as the mainland’s gross domestic product (GDP) slowed to a 25-year-low of 6.9 per cent (http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/china-s-economy-grows-at/2437354.html) last year. Mr Xu said that China’s investment is now focused on fixing weak points and structural adjustments, including infrastructure in the central and western regions, education and healthcare sectors. China’s basic infrastructure investment growth increased 15 per cent last year, the official added. Meanwhile, the mainland’s attempts to curb overcapacity will increase unemployment in provinces with high output of steel and coal, such as Shanxi, Heilongjiang and Hebei. However, there is no need for panic as central and local governments will have policies to deal with increased unemployment, Mr Xu said. – Reuters/sk
Beijing – Pendiri Hayman Capital Management Kyle Bass memberikan peringataan terkait sistem perbankan China dan yuan sepanjang Februari 2016 berjalan. Sistem perbankan China telah berkembang US$34,5 triliun sama dengan lebih dari tiga kali PDB China, yang bisa berakibat mendatangkan masalah perekonomian. Ketika itu terjadi, bank sentral harus menggelontorkan USS$3,3 triliun cadangan devisa untuk rekapitalisasi bank, menyebabkan penyusutan signifikan dalam nilai yuan, menurut Bass. Demikian mengutip cnbc, Kamis (04/02/2016). Bass mengatakan industri ekspor-impor China membutuhkan China mempertahankan US$2,7 triliun cadangan devisa sepanjang tahun, untuk terus beroperasi dengan lancar, mengutip penilaian IMF. “China akan terpukul dalam lima bulan ke depan. China hanya memiliki beberapa bulan ke depan sebelum mereka masuk ke wilayah bahaya nyata,” tandas dia. http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2271887/peringatan-bagi-sistem-perbankan-china-yuan (http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2271887/peringatan-bagi-sistem-perbankan-chinayuan) Sumber : INILAH.COM
Beijing, Jan 22, 2016 (AFP) China’s Internet users — already by far the world’s most numerous — rose to nearly 700 million last year, authorities said Friday, more than twice the population of the United States. Beijing imposes strict controls on online content, while e-commerce is a vital part of its efforts to transform the economy into one driven more by consumer demand. The Asian giant’s Internet population — defined as those who have gone online at least once in the past six months — stood at 688 million at the end of 2015, up 39.5 million year-on-year, according to the government’s China Internet Network Information Center (CNNIC). The figure accounts for more than half the people in the world’s most populous country. More than 90 percent had gone online through their mobile phones, CNNIC reported, while two-thirds had used desktop computers and nearly 40 percent laptops. Several Chinese tech firms, led by Jack Ma’s Alibaba, have become multi-billion-dollar giants in recent years as the country’s online population has boomed. At the same time Beijing blocks websites it deems politically sensitive in a system dubbed the “Great Firewall of China”, and social media companies censor user-generated content. china daily: The majority of foreign companies 2016 Business Climate Survey released by American Chamber of Commerce in China on Wednesday. China remains a top three global investment priority for a majority of member companies asthey look to innovation for growth, said AmCham China Chairman James Zimmerman. The poll of almost 500 member companies of the AmCham China, conducted in partnershipwith Bain & Company, also showed that China remains a top investment priority for more thanhalf of companies, despite the fact that revenues and profitability came under pressure lastyear. In addition, relative to other developing markets, China is still well-positioned, which remainsa top three investment priority for 60 percent of member companies, and the top priority forabout 25 percent of members, said the survey.
bangkok post: Beijing: Foreign direct investment into China accelerated in 2015 as cash poured into the country’s service sector, official data showed yesterday, despite slowing expansion in the world’s second-largest economy. Foreign direct investment (FDI), which excludes the financial sector, rose 5.6% from the previous year to $126.3 billion, according to figures from the Commerce Ministry. That is more than triple 2014’s growth of 1.7%. Investment from overseas has been a key element of China’s economic boom in recent years, but as it matures the Asian giant is increasingly becoming a source of funds as much as a destination. Figures for China’s own overseas direct investment (ODI) will be released at a later date. Companies that have received foreign investment were responsible for nearly half of China’s foreign trade, around 14% of urban jobs and 20% of tax revenues, said a statement with the figures. The pick-up in FDI was driven by strong expansion in investment into the service sector, which has held up well despite growth momentum in the overall Chinese economy weakening as it matures. “The quality of FDI continued to improve and its industrial structure was further optimised,” an unnamed ministry official in charge of investment said in a statement with the figures, without giving further details. FDI into the service industry jumped 16.6% to $77.2 billion last year, sharply outpacing the 7.6% increase in 2014, the ministry’s data showed. But despite the recovery in 2015, it remains significantly below the double-digit rates of the past. China’s economy grew at its slowest pace for 24 years in 2014 and eased further last year, as Beijing struggles to transform the country’s growth model to a slower but more sustainable one driven by domestic consumption instead of exports and public investment. In July-September the country logged its worst economic performance since the global financial crisis, with growth of 6.9%. The government is scheduled to release gross domestic product figures on Tuesday.afp. chinadaily news: China’s financial sector issued 11.7 trillion yuan ($1.77 trillion) in new loans in 2015, ahistorical high, providing a major buffer against a sharp economic slowdown, the central bankreported on its website on Friday. Among the new loans, 11.3 trillion yuan was injected into the real economy, accounting for 73percent of the total social financing, an increase of 11.7 percentage points over 2014,according to the People’s Bank of China. Loans increased faster in emerging industries, including the information and biologicalindustries, while it decreased in traditional manufacturing sectors with overcapacity, such assteel and construction materials, the data said. The data reflected the government’s stronger supports on economic growth and furtherrebalancing of the industrial growth structure, Sheng Songcheng, director of the bank’sstatistical survey department, said at a news briefing. By the end of December, the broad money supply, or M2, had increased 13.3 percent from ayear earlier, compared with a growth of 12.9 percent in November. The acceleration of M2 growth indicated sufficient liquidity in the financial markets, whichwere supported by the economic stabilization policies, Shen said. Total social financing increased by 15.41 trillion yuan last year, 467.5 billion yuan less than in2014, the central bank said.
BEIJING kontan. Secara tidak terduga, tingkat ekspor China mencatatkan kenaikan pada Desember. Sementara, penurunan pada tingkat impor tercatat moderat. Hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa pelemahan mata uang China mulai mendongkrak tingkat persaingan perdagangan China. Berdasarkan data yang dirilis pemerintah China, pengiriman barang ke luar negeri pada Desember lalu naik 2,3% dalam mata uang yuan dibanding tahun sebelumnya. Bandingkan dengan penurunan ekspor November yang mencapai 3,7%. Sementara, tingkat impor terus menurun selama 14 bulan berturut-turut, mencapai 4% dalam mata uang yuan. Sekadar mengingatkan, tingkat impor China pada November melorot 5,6%. Alhasil, nilai surplus perdagangan China pada Desember lalu mencapai 382 miliar yuan atau setara dengan US$ 58 miliar. “Di luar guncangan pasar saham, pemulihan pertumbuhan ekonomi China berjalan sesuai target. Hal ini disebabkan oleh pelonggaran kebijakan yang dilakukan pemerintah China sehingga menyokong pertumbuhan ekonomi,” jelas Daili Wang, ekonom Roubini Global Economics LLC. Meski demikian, dia menilai, proses pemulihan ekonomi China masih rentan. Wang menilai, yuan tidak akan terdepresiasi lebih dalam seperti yang terjadi beberapa pekan terakhir. Dia beralasan, saat ini pemerintah China lebih memprioritaskan stabilitas. Selain itu, “Pertumbuhan ekspor yang kuat tidak akan memperlemah posisi yuan,” tambahnya. bloomberg: China’s combined market capitalization was double Japan’s on June 12, when the value of stocks trading on Chinese equity exchanges briefly exceeded $10 trillion. The ratio narrowed to 1.2 times at yesterday’s close.
Surges aside, growth in Chinese equity markets is largely dependent on the government, which controls many of the biggest enterprises. China’s market cap as a proportion of gross domestic product was 52 percent in 2014, compared with 90 percent in Japan and 146 percent in the U.S., based on the most-recent GDP data from the World Bank. Some Chinese companies, including e-commerce leader Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., choose to list abroad instead of locally. The ratio, measured in dollars, has also narrowed as the yen strengthened more than 10 percent against the yuan over the past six months. BEIJING, KOMPAS.com – Kendati pasar saham China terjun bebas di pertengahan tahun 2015 lalu, indeks bursa Shanghai dan Shenzhen masih tetap menjadi jawara di kawasan regional Asia. Sementara bursa saham di Asia Tenggara berguguran karena sentimen perlambatan ekonomi di kawasan tersebut. Dilansir dari CNBC, indeks komposit Shenzhen mencetak pertumbuhan tertinggi di bursa saham Asia. Indeks bursa Shenzhen mencetak gain sebesar 64 persen di 2015 lalu. Meski indeks ini kalah populer dengan indeks bursa Shanghai, tetapi kinerja perusahaan-perusahaan berskala kecil di sektor kesehatan, internet dan teknologi cukup memuaskan sehingga mendongkrak pergerakan indeks bursa Shenzhen. Indeks bursa Selandia Baru atau NZX 50 berada di urutan kedua dengan kenaikan 14 persen. Indeks NZX 50 menguat ditopang kinerja industri susu yang mulai pulih. Pada lelang terakhir tahun 2015 yakni 15 Desember, harga susu Selandia Baru naik 2 persen menjadi 2,458 dollar AS (http://bisniskeuangan.kompas.com/tag/dollar%20AS? utm_source=RD&utm_medium=inart&utm_campaign=khiprd) per ton. Kurs yang menguat juga mengangkat indeks Selandia Baru. Sepanjang bulan lalu, nilai tukar dollar Kiwi menguat 5 persen terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat (AS). Sementara, kinerja indeks bursa Shanghai dengan kenaikan hampir 9 persen menduduki urutan ketiga tertinggi. Program pembelian saham oleh Pemerintah China mampu mendongkrak lagi indeks bursa Shanghai yang sempat jatuh. Sedangkan, indeks Nikkei 225 Jeoang berada di posisi keempat dengan kenaikan 9,3 persen dan diikuti oleh indeks bursa Vietnam yang tumbuh 6 persen tahun lalu. Pasar saham di Asia ini masih lebih baik ketimbang AS dan Eropa. Kinerja indeks S&P paling moncer di AS dengan kenaikan 0,22 persen. Di Eropa, kenaikan tertinggi adalah indeks DAX Jerman sebesar 9,56 persen. Kinerja terburuk Kinerja buruk dialami indeks Straits Times Singapura. Tahun lalu, indeks ini merosot lebih dari 14 persen dan menjadikan kinerja indeks Straits Times menjadi yang terburuk di Asia. Pelemahan kinerja manufaktur dan konstruksi telah menyeret pasar properti sehingga membebani pertumbuhan ekonomi Negeri Merlion tersebut. Indeks SET Thailand mengekor di belakang dengan penurunan sebesar 14 persen. Nasib Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG (http://bisniskeuangan.kompas.com/tag/IHSG?utm_source=RD&utm_medium=inart&utm_campaign=khiprd)) tak kalah buruk tahun ini. Penurunan harga minyak, penguatan dollar AS (http://bisniskeuangan.kompas.com/tag/dollar%20AS?utm_source=RD&utm_medium=inart&utm_campaign=khiprd) terhadap kurs rupiah (http://bisniskeuangan.kompas.com/tag/kurs%20rupiah?utm_source=RD&utm_medium=inart&utm_campaign=khiprd), serta tekanan kenaikan suku bunga menghimpit kinerjaIHSG (http://bisniskeuangan.kompas.com/tag/IHSG?utm_source=RD&utm_medium=inart&utm_campaign=khiprd) yang minus 12,13 persen sepanjang tahun lalu. Indeks-indeks lain di Asia yang minus adalah Hangseng Hongkong turun 7,16 persen. Lalu, indeks Taiwan TAEIX juga ikut minus 11,05 persen di 2015. Dibandingkan bursa regional lainnya, performa buruk indeks bursa Asia tersebut lebih jelek ketimbang Amerika dan Eropa. Di Amerika, indeks Dow Jones hanya turun 1,23 persen. Begitu juga dengan indeks FTSE 100 Eropa turun 4,45 persen di sepanjang 2015 lalu. (Adi Wikanto) Editor
: Erlangga Djumena
Sumber
: KONTAN (http://www.kontan.co.id/)
chinadaily: Top leadership devises strategy aimed at spearheading economic transition China’s top leadership, which is preparing to launch the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-20), on Monday announced an overarching strategy to lead the economy’s ongoing transition. President Xi Jinping said the country’s emphasis next year will be on supply-side reform, or a package of supply-side policies to release new demand and boost new productivity. He was speaking at the conclusion of the Central Economic Work Conference, which was held along with the Central Urban Work Conference. Economists said this means that China will no longer seek to fuel economic growth solely by using fiscal and monetary measures to boost capital investment, consumption and exports. Instead, the government will be more focused on devising policies which, from the supply side, are aimed at helping the industries it wants to support. Outdated businesses will also be phased out. The Central Economic Work Conference has pledged to launch a series of policies next year that have been discussed for a long time, including more tax cuts, incentives for specific industries, regulatory reforms and more aid to lift people out of poverty. Supply-side reform covers two areas, according to the political magazine Outlook. One of these is to readjust the economic structurecrucially by shedding excessive industrial capacity. The other is to use institutional reforms and innovationnot merely financial stimulus measuresto boost growth, such as subsidized sales of empty housing to migrant workers from rural areas. The magazine said the more important supply-side reform is to continue to streamline the government’s administrative power over business and to provide policy-level convenience for private entrepreneurs. Ba Shusong, chief economist at the China Banking Association, said it was the first time that top leaders had raised supply-side reform as guidance for the future and for all restructuring efforts. Guan Quan, a professor at the School of Economics at Renmin University of China, said supply-side reform inevitably focuses on long-term structural change rather than short-term stimulus. “It is a strategy leading more directly to higher productivity and lower operational costs,” Guan said. Industries that cannot satisfy market demand will be upgraded. Those related to consumption, logistics, medical and healthcare will probably see stronger growth, Guan added. Qu Hongbin, chief China economist at HSBC Holdings, said China’s supply-side reform is likely to continue to 2020, adding, “Urbanization, industrial upgrading, financial liberalization and green investment will be the top priorities.” Zhu Haibin, chief China economist at JPMorgan Chase, said that by promising a series of supply-side reform efforts, China has sent “a very positive signal”. What supply-side reform involves China used to rely on three major forces to drive economic growthinvestment, exports and consumption, which are classified as the demand side. As the effectiveness of boosting growth in the demand side wanes, the government has started to reform the supply side, or the supply and effective use of production factors, including funds, resources, skilled workers, equipment and technologies. The reform aims to accelerate economic growth by freeing up productivity and raising supply-side competitiveness. Measures will include cutting excess industrial capacity, reducing housing inventories and cutting production costs with police support. JAKARTA – Tahun 2015 akan segera berakhir. Memasuki tahun 2016, rasa optimistis pun muncul dari dunia perekonomian Tanah Air. Pasalnya, 2016 dianggap sebagai tahun yang penuh kepastian setelah the Fed akhirnya menaikkan tingkat suku bunga acuannya secara bertahap. Pertumbuhan Ekonomi berbagai negara pun diprediksikan akan membaik dan dapat menjadi penopang pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Menurut ekonom Mandiri Sekuritas Leo Putera Rinaldy, dalam jangka waktu lima tahun ke depan motor perubahan perekonomian dunia akan mengalami perubahan. Jika sejak krisis ekonomi global tahun 2008 motor penggerak perekonomian adalah negara-negara berkembang, maka sejak tahun 2016 hingga tahun 2020 mendatang motor penggerak perekonomian akan dikendalikan oleh negara-negara maju, terutama Amerika Serikat (AS) dan India. “Kita melihat bahwa global ekonomi ke depan mulai berubah. Driver ekonominya adalah negara-negara maju. Menurut IMF, AS 2015 sampai 2020 akan mengalami pertumbuhan 2,5 persen dari sebelumnya pada tahun 2009 sampai 2014 hanya 1,4 persen. Sedangkan China justru menurun dari 8,6 persen ke 6,3 persen pada hingga tahun 2020,” ujar Leo kepada pewarta di Gedung Plaza Mandiri, Jakarta, Senin (21/12/2015). Amerika diprediksi akan kembali menjadi penopang ekonomi Indonesia pada sektor ekspor dan menjadi pengganti China setelah hampir tujuh tahun menjadi penopang perekonomian nasional. Secara total, AS akan dapat memberikan kontribusi ekspor ke Indonesia dengan total nilai ekspor mencapai USD9,1 miliar. Jumlah ini baru mencakup lima unit produksi ekspor terbesar yang diprediksi akan mengalami pertumbuhan pada tahun 2016 mendatang, yaitu apparel dan produk sejenis, karet dan produk turunannya, perikanan, peralatan elektronik, dan alas kaki. Tak hanya AS, India pun diprediksikan akan menjadi raksasa ekonomi dunia yang turut menjadi penopang pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional melalui sektor ekspor. Bahkan, total nilai ekspor dari lima unit produksi terbesar menuju India diperkirakan akan mengalahkan total nilai ekspor menuju AS pada 2016 mendatang, yaitu sebesar USD10,4 miliar. Lima produk terbesar untuk diekspor adalah bahan bakar mineral, minyak nabati, karet dan produk turunannya, biji nikel, dan kimia organik. Menurut Leo, dominasi China dalam jangka panjang dapat terpatahkan oleh negara-negara maju. Untuk itu, Indonesia perlu jeli melirik kesempatan pada tahun mendatang agar tidak terjebak dengan pelemahan ekonomi China. http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/12/21/20/1272297/dua-negara-ini-bakal-pengaruhi-ekonomi-ri-2016 (http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/12/21/20/1272297/dua-negara-ini-bakalpengaruhi-ekonomi-ri-2016) Sumber : OKEZONE.COM chinadailyasia: Public service set to be improved and new demand created to spur growth The country’s top leaders are likely to introduce all-round “supply-side reform” at the annual Central Economic Work Conference, which began on Friday in Beijing. “All signs are pointing in the same direction, that supply-side reform will command center stage next year,” according to a policy review of the conference by China Minsheng Bank, one of the largest non-State banks. As part of the Chinese decision-making process, leaders hold such a conference every December to review economic performance in the past year and to map out a strategy for the coming year. Methods to implement the strategy and achieve related targets won’t be finalized until early next year. But the underlying strategic thinking will be made clear by the official paper that is expected to come out a few days after the meeting. A Web commentary by People’s Daily called the supply-side reform “a profound change”. It will be led by a series of policies to improve public service, environmental protection, quality of production and further opening-up to the global economic system, it said. In the most immediate move, the commentary said, the government will have to reduce housing inventories, and one way is to subsidize rural migrant workers so they can settle down in the cities where they work. It should also shed excessive industrial capacity, especially in industries with low technology and poor market prospects, it said. A third thing to do is to deepen reform of the financial system, so as to build a nationwide system of financial service, taxation and multiple layers of insurance, the commentary added. Wang Yiming, vice-president of the State Council Development Research Center, said reform will definitely be the priority at the meeting. GDP growth will be assigned secondary importance, economists said. Some suggested that next year’s GDP growth target should be lowered from “around 7 percent” this year to between 6.5 and 6.8 percent. GDP growth in the first three quarters reached 6.9 percent year-on-year, down from the 7.3 percent last year. The growth target won’t be published until the National People’s Congress in March. This year’s economic work conference is also expected to discuss the draft 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-20), which is aimed at doubling the 2010 level of GDP and per capita income by 2020, economists said. It is also important for the government to guard against a sharp slowdown, said Li Dao-kui, director of Tsinghua University’s Center for China in the World Economy. Song Yu, Goldman Sachs chief economist in China, said, “China’s economic conditions are expected to remain challenging.” He predicted the GDP growth target will be set at 6.5 percent. Min Lan Tan of UBS Wealth Management said signs of China’s long-awaited economic transition “may be finally underway”, and this may lead to a further slowdown. In 2020, “a 5.5 to 6 percent GDP growth is not unthinkable”, she said. UBS also expected a moderate depreciation of the yuan against the dollar over 12 months, taking the exchange rate to 6.80 yuan per dollar. According to Jia Kang, director of the Ministry of Finance’s Research Institute, supply-side reform means to use government policies to release and to create new demand so that China can keep up its growth momentum. JAKARTA – Ketika Bank Sentral Amerika Serikat Federal Reserve (the Fed) menaikkan suku bunga, maka hal ini sekaligus menjadi keputusan penting bagi perekonomian dunia internasional dalam satu dekade terakhir. Pasalnya, AS terakhir kali akan menaikkan tingkat suku bunganya untuk pertama kalinya sejak Juni 2006 silam. Sebagai dampak dari kenaikan suku bunga the Fed, negara berkembang perlu waspadai arus investasi yang diperkirakan akan keluar menuju AS. Pasalnya, Kenaikan suku bunga the Fed akan menyebabkan menguatnya nilai tukar dolar AS terhadap berbagai mata uang dunia. Hal ini tentunya akan menyebabkan mengalirnya investasi dana modal menuju AS. Sehingga, terdapat potensi keluarnya arus dana modal asing yang saat ini masih berada di negara berkembang. Menurut analis Commerzbank, pertumbuhan negatif yang dialami oleh sebagian besar negara berkembang akan dapat menekan sektor bisnis domestik dalam jangka pendek maupun dalam jangka panjang. Sehingga, negara berkembang diharapkan dapat segera bersifat responsif untuk melakukan proteksi arus dana modal dalam negeri. “Pertumbuhan lemah di pasar negara berkembang akan membebani sentimen bisnis,†ujar analis Commerzbank seperti yang dikutip Reuters. Meskipun demikian, pertumbuhan industri Beijing dapat diharapkan jadi penyelamat ekonomi negara berkembang. Pada November, pertumbuhan output industri China mencapai angka tertinggi dalam lima bulan terakhir yang mencapai 6,2 persen. Hal ini telah membuktikan bahwa langkah-langkah stimulus yang telah dilakukan oleh pemerintahan di Beijing telah menuai hasil positif. Untuk itu, ekonomi China diharapkan dapat menopang pertumbuhan ekonomi negara berkembang yang diperkirakan akan mengalami tekanan dalam waktu dekat pasca kenaikan suku bunga the Fed. http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/12/16/278/1269162/fed-rate-naik-china-diharap-jadi-penyelamat (http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/12/16/278/1269162/fed-rate-naik-chinadiharap-jadi-penyelamat)  Sumber : OKEZONE.COM Beijing, Dec 8, 2015 (AFP) Chinese imports and exports both fell again in November, Customs said Tuesday, the latest ambivalent figures from the world’s second-largest economy. Imports dropped 5.6 percent year-on-year to 910 billion yuan (around $142 billion), Customs said, while exports were down 3.7 percent to 1.25 trillion yuan, although the latter was ahead of expectations and both falls were smaller than in October. The trade surplus was 343 billion yuan. the age: Is the Chinese economy slowing down or melting down? You don’t have to go far to find someone purporting to know a lot more about China than you do, who’s making the most apocalyptic predictions. And who knows? Maybe one day they’ll be right. But I’ll wait for it to happen before I start worrying. By the same token, to say China is “slowing” seems a bit euphemistic. Being a developing country you can’t say it’s in recession the way you might say it of an advanced economy, because developing economies rarely experience an actual contraction in real gross domestic product. China’s GDP is $US10.3 trillion – that’s $US8 trillion more than in 2005. At their worst they just grow at rates that, by their standards, are pretty bad, but by ours we’d be very pleased to have. In that sense it seems likely China is in or entering its own version of a recession. Its rate of growth has been slowing for more than a year, it probably has more slowing to do, and with a bit of bad luck it could slow a lot more. At worst we’re talking about growth in GDP slowing to maybe 4 per cent a year. The biggest problem – as the doomsayers have long been saying – is the “overhang” from China’s long-running real estate boom, in which far more apartments were built than there were people wanting to buy them. Now housing construction has come to a halt in various parts of China, and it won’t resume until the existing stock of empty homes is finally sold off. That could take at least a year, probably two. So the economy won’t start to pick up anytime soon. Limited housing construction means weak or declining growth in the manufacture of housing materials such as crude steel, cement and plate glass. That’s not the whole story, but it does mean the weakness is concentrated in construction and manufacturing, which just happen to be the main components of “industrial production” – an economic indicator the world’s financial markets pay great attention to, not least because it’s published monthly. Trouble is, industrial production ain’t easy to measure. It’s particularly hard to do in developing countries, which don’t have the bureaucratic infrastructure we have and where the shape of the economy keeps changing, not to mention the extra problems in measuring it monthly rather than quarterly. This has prompted some in the markets to suspect a conspiracy rather than a stuff-up, and allege the Chinese authorities are making the numbers up. They may not be as reliable as we’d like, but don’t believe that. Another thing to remember – as people in the market tend to forget – is that industrial production accounts for only about 45 per cent of Chinese GDP. The remaining 55 per cent is in a lot better shape, as a Reserve Bank assistant governor, Dr Christopher Kent, argued in a speech this week. By the way, if you’re looking for someone to trust on China you could do worse than our central bank. It’s well aware of the importance of China to our international prospects and so puts a lot more personpower than most into studying it: six or seven economists in Sydney, plus another two attached to our embassy in Beijing. Kent says that although the weakness in China’s property and manufacturing sectors is clearly of concern to commodity exporters like Australia, there are a number of countervailing forces supporting broader activity in China. “First, growth in the services sector [worth about 45 per cent of GDP] has been resilient, and should continue to be assisted by a shift in demand towards services as incomes rise,” he says. “Second, growth in household consumption has also been stable in recent quarters, aided by the growth in new jobs. Of course, such outcomes cannot be taken for granted; if the industrial weakness is sustained, it might eventually affect household incomes and spending. “Third, Chinese policymakers have responded to lower growth by easing monetary policy [access to loans] and approving additional infrastructure investment projects. “They have scope to provide further support if needed, although they may be reticent to do too much if that compromises longer-term goals, such as placing the financial system on a more sustainable footing.” So what does this mean for us? The substantial slowing in industrial production has contributed to the further decline this year in the prices we get for our exports of coal and iron ore. (Of course, the bigger reason for the lower prices we’re getting is the substantial increase in the supply of these commodities from places such as Australia.) Kent says that what transpires with China’s industrial production, and in Asia more broadly, will have a big influence on how much further commodity prices fall. And the changing nature of China’s development – a higher proportion of services and lower proportion of goods – limits the potential for commodity prices to go back up. But here’s the good news: Kent reminds us that the shift in demand towards services and Western agricultural products in China and Asia more broadly presents new opportunities for Australian exporters. As recently as the mid-noughties, China’s GDP was growing at the rate of 10 per cent. This is why money-market types are shocked to hear it’s now growing by only 6.5 per cent, let alone 4 per cent. But this just shows that even money-market types can be innumerate. As the distinguished former economic journalist Anatole Kaletsky has reminded us, China’s GDP today is $US10.3 trillion ($14.5 trillion). In 2005 it was $US2.3 trillion. So even just 4 per cent of $US10.3 billion is much more than 10 per cent of $US2.3 trillion. To the Chinese, what matters most is the rate at which GDP is growing. To the rest of us, however, what matters is the size of the absolute addition the Chinese are contributing to gross world product. Ross Gittins is the Herald’s economics editor. Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/dont-buy-the-china-doom-and-gloom-stories-just-yet-20151119-gl2oep.html#ixzz3tJ8J0xE8 (http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/dont-buy-the-china-doom-and-gloom-stories-just-yet-20151119-gl2oep.html#ixzz3tJ8J0xE8) Follow us: @theage on Twitter (http://ec.tynt.com/b/rw?id=bRrpOkwwyr34jFadbiUt4I&u=theage) | theageAustralia on Facebook (http://ec.tynt.com/b/rf? id=bRrpOkwwyr34jFadbiUt4I&u=theageAustralia) Hong Kong, Dec 3, 2015 (AFP) Shanghai stocks rallied on Thursday, a fourth-straight gain and almost wiping out sharp losses suffered at the end of last week, on hopes China will introduce measures to support its economy. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index gained 1.35 percent, or 47.91 points, to 3,584.82. The index plunged 5.5 percent on Friday after investigations were announced into several major brokerage firms. The Shenzhen Composite Index, which tracks stocks on China’s second exchange, jumped 2.50 percent, or 54.63 points, to 2,243.94. But in Hong Kong the benchmark Hang Seng Index fell 0.28 percent, or 62.68 points, to finish at 22,417.01. JAKARTA-Ekonomi Indonesia akan melaju kencang setelah dua tahun akan datang. Pada tahun 2025, ekonomi Indonesia bisa bertumbuh di atas 10%. Setidaknya dua faktor yang menjadi pendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia, yakni pulihnya ekonomi RRT dan daya tarik dalam negeri ini sebagai tujuan investasi dunia. “Selain RRT, negara-negara di dunia kini mengalami over capacity dan di antara negara-negara di Asia, Indonesia adalah negara yang paling menarik sebagai tujuan investasi global,” ungkap chairman Lippo Group Mochtar Riady dalam acara The Lippo Group Executives Gathering di Gedung MRIN, Lippo Karawaci, Kamis malam (19/11). Dalam dua tahun ke depan, ekonomi Indonesia tetap bertumbuh lebih baik dari tahun ini, tapi belum signifikan karena pengaruh global. Pada kesempatan yang sama, CEO Lippo Group James T Riady menjelaskan, jumlah karyawan yang bekerja di Lippo Group sudah mencapai 94.997. Kurang 5.503 mencapai 100.000. Jika ditambah di luar negeri, Singapura dan Hongkong, karyawan Lippo sudah menembus 100.000 orang. Ini jumlah yang cukup besar bila memperhitungkan juga keluarga dan para kontraktor. Lippo kini sudah benar-benar nasional karena beroperasi di berbagai wilayah Indonesia. Rumah sakit, hotel, dan mal Lippo di ada di berbagai provinisi di luar Jawa. “Lippo kini ada di Baubau, Sulawesi Tenggara dan Labuan Bajo, NTT, dua wilayah terpencil,” kata James. Faktor RRT Mochtar yang baru kembali dari Jepang menuturkan tentang pertemuannya dengan Ken Kobayashi, Presdir dan CEO Mitsubishi Corporation di Negeri Sakura. Saat ditanya tentang ekonomi Indonesia, Mochtar mengatakan, ekonomi Indonesia tergantung AS dan RRT. Mendengar jawaban Mochtar, Kobayashi mengatakan, RRT kini kesulitan ekonomi karena over capacity dan over investment. Upah buruh sudah terlalu tinggi. Dengan kondisi seperti itu, ekonomi RRT akan terus melemah dalam waktu panjang. RRT bahkan bakal masuk middle income trap atau jebakan kelas menengah, yakni negara yang tidak mampu naik peringkat ke negara maju, melainkan tetap berada di kelas menengah. “Saya kurang sependapat dengan pandangan mereka,” ujar Mochtar. Menurut pendiri Lippo Group itu, RRT sama sekali tidak mengalami over capacity dan over investment. Jalan raya, pelabuhan, dan bendara semuanya dimanfaatkan dan ramai. Negeri Tirai Bambu itu juga mengalami masalah air bersih. Ini semua menunjukkan kapasitas yang terpakai dan investasi yang masih dibutuhkan. Dalam meyakinkan mitra Jepangnya, Mochtar juga menjelaskan kemajuan teknologi dan digital di RRT. Huawei, perusahaan komponen dan teknologi informasi terbesar di RRT, sedang memproduksi grande feet untuk menggantikan silicon. Jika langkah itu sukses, Intel asal AS akan gulung tikar. Huawei kini sedang mempersiapkan beberapa seri chipset terbaru, yakni Kirin 950 SoC, yang diperkirakan akan mengalahkan Exynos, chipset terbaik dunia buatan Samsung. Kirin 950 akan dipergunakan untuk smartphone high end terbaru buatan Huawei. Kirin 950 berpotensi mengalahkan produk-produk Samsung yang saat ini bertengger di papan atas benchmark chipset. Saat ini, produksi chipset masih dikuasai oleh lima produsen terbesar, yaitu Qualcomm, Mediatek, Samsung, Intel, dan Huawei. Data Strategy Analytics menunjukkan, Huawei telah menggeser Microsoft sebagai pembuat ponsel terbesar ketiga di dunia. Huawei telah mengirim 30,6 juta handset pada kuartal II, dengan pertumbuhan tahunan 50%. Hal tersebut membuat Huawei meraih 7% pangsa pasar ponsel global, di bawah Apple dengan pangsa 10% dan pemimpin pasar, Samsung, 20,5%. “Sisco adalah perusahaan telekomunikasi paling hebat yang kini bekerjasama dengan Huawei dalam mengembangkan teknologi telekomunikasi. Daripada kalah bersaing lebih baik bekerjasama,” ungkap Mochtar. RRT juga mencatat kemajuan besar di bidang teknologi untuk healthcare. Berbagai alat kesehatan yang selama ini hanya diproduksi oleh General Electric dan sejumlah perusahaan asal AS dan Eropa, kini sudah bisa diprodksi RRT dengan harga jauh lebih murah. Jika pada masa lalu e-commerce dikuasai oleh Amazone, kini situs belanja online terbesar RRT, Alibaba, telah menorehkan rekor dalam perayaan Hari Belanja Online pada 11 November lalu yang dikenal dengan Single Day. Dalam 14 jam perdagangan hari itu, transaksi telah melampaui US$ 10 miliar (Rp 135,9 triliun). Angka ini memecahkan rekor penjualan tahun lalu sebesar US$ 9,3 miliar. Seperti diberitakan Financial Times, Single Day merupakan hari gila belanja yang jatuh tiap tanggal 11 November. Dalam 90 menit pertama, nilai perdagangan telah menembus US$ 5 miliar di situs milik Jack Ma ini. Kehebatan RRT juga terlihat pada teknologi satelit. Roket seri terbaru Long March-6 mampu meluncurkan 20 mikro-satelit sekaligus pada September lalu. Kemajuan teknologi RRT sudah cukup signifikan. “Setelah mendengar penjelasan saya, Kobayashi dan rekan-rekan dari Jepang baru yakin,” papar Mochtar. Indonesia Bangkit Mochtar memperkirakan, RRT akan bangkit dalam dua tahun akan datang. “Setelah dua tahun akan datang, ekspor komoditas Indonesia ke RRT akan kembali meningkat dan ini akan berdampak signifikan terhadap ekonomi Indonesia,” ungkap Mochtar. Dunia kini sedang mengalami over capacity, terutama Eropa dan Jepang. Negara-negara ini mencari negara tujuan investasi. Di antara negara-negara di Asia, demikian Mochtar, Indonesia merupakan negara paling menarik. Sebab, selain jumlah penduduk yang besar, kelas menengah yang meningkat, dan pendapatan per kapita yang akan meningkat, Indonesia juga under capacity dan pemerintah terus-menerus memperbaiki iklim investasi. “Saya optimistis dengan langkah-langkah yang diambil pemerintah,” kata Mochtar. Jika semua kebijakan dijalankan dengan baik, Indonesia dalam sepuluh tahun akan datang mampu menjadi negara hebat dengan pertumbuhan 10% setahun. Tetap Tumbuh Ketika banyak perusahaan di Indonesia mengalami penurunan, kata James Riady, Lippo Group cukup bertahan bahkan masih bertumbuh dengan bagus. Kondisi ini tak lepas dari lini bisnis yang dipilih yang semuanya berkaitan dengan jasa dan konsumsi masyarakat. Ke depan, pendapatan masyarakat akan terus meningkat dan seiring dengan peningkatan pendapatan, pengeluaran untuk kesehatan dan gaya hidup akan meningkat pula. Lippo akan terus melakukan restrukturisasi dan mengembangkan perusahaan untuk mempertahankan pertumbuhan. Bisnis tambang bisa untung berlipat ganda pada saat ekonomi bagus, tapi juga bisa turun berlipat saat ekonomi memburuk. “Bisnis jasa dan konsumsi adalah defensive business, yang naik wajar pada saat ekonomi bagus dan relatif bertahan pada saat ekonomi kurang bagus,” papar James. Dengan tetap memperkuat bisnis properti, ritel, konsumsi, kesehatan, rumah sakit, life style, hiburan, telekomunikasi, dan media, Lippo akan terus bertumbuh. Tahun depan, Lippo akan tetap ekspansi, antara lain, membangun rumah sakit, sekolah, dan mal di berbagai daerah, khususnya di luar Jawa. Lippo kini sudah menjadi perusahaan yang benar-benar perusahaan nasional karena kehadirannya di seluruh pelosok Tanah Air. Tahapan penting yang tengah dikembangkan Lippo, kata James, adalah penggunaan digital untuk shopping dan banking. Lippomall.com kini menjadi e-commerce terbesar di Indonesia. Bank Nobu akan menjadi bank dengan penggunaan digital paling lengkap di Indonesia. “Banyak nasabah bank tak puas terhadap pelayanan bank yang ada selama ini, terutama mereka yang masuk usia digital, yakni penduduk berusia 20-30 tahun,” kata James. Tumbuhnya generasi baru, generasi digital, akan menjadi target Bank Nobu. (Primus Dorimulu/HA) http://id.beritasatu.com/business/ekonomi-indonesia-akan-membaik/133052 (http://id.beritasatu.com/business/ekonomi-indonesia-akan-membaik/133052) Sumber : INVESTOR DAILY JAKARTA okezone – Menteri Perdagangan (Mendag) Thomas Trikasih Lembong menyatakan, Indoenesia perlu melakukan peralihan industrialisasi. Hal ini demi memenuhi kebutuhan negara mitra dagang terbesar yaitu China. Menurut Tom, pendorong perekonomian China sudah beralih dari investasi menjadi konsumsi. Oleh sebab itu, seluruh negara khususnya di ASEAN, butuh melakukan reindustrialisasi. “Kita juga beralih dari pemasok komoditas mentah ke pemasok barang konsumsi dan jasa. Itulah kenapa dibutuhkan reindustrialiasi bukan hanya Indonesia tapi semua negara ASEAN karena China merupakan mitra dagang terbesar,” kata Tom di Hotel Borobudur, Jakarta, Rabu (4/11/2015). Menurut Tom, industri bahan baku di Indonesia saat ini menunjukkan tren yang cukup baik. Sehingga pihaknya optimistis Indonesia dapat melakukan reindustrialisasi demi memenuhi kebutuhan ekspor ke China. “Ini peralihan perekonomian. Data menunjukkan kita unggul di perhiasan, barang automotif bukan cuma barang rakitan tapi otoparts, unggul di alas kaki, dan ban mobil. Jadi strategi perindustrian Pemerintah harus menyesuaikan untuk mendukung sektor yang membuktikan unggulan kita,” ungkap dia. Sejauh ini, Tom menyatakan upah pekerja di China naik cukup drastis. Hal inilah yang menunjukkan China sudah naik kelas dibanding sebelumnya. “Mereka terus terang sudah melewati fase perkembangan ekonomi. Mereka sudah naik kelas. Kalau dulu di tekstil dan meubel misalnya, sekarang mereka ke elektronik dan jasa properti dan produk hi tech. Dengan demikian industri sebelumnya, meubel, tekstil, sepatu pindah ke Vietnam, Thailand, dan Kamboja,” tandas Tom. (rzy) Beijing, Nov 2, 2015 (AFP) China’s manufacturing activity shrank again in October but the rate of decline in the world’s second-largest economy improved, an independent survey showed Monday.The sector is key to the health of the economy, a major driver of global expansion, and has been showing shrinkage for the last eight months.Chinese growth is slowing and media group Caixin said domestic demand continued to fall, although new export business improved.Its Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which tracks activity in factories and workshops, came in at 48.3 last month, it said in a joint statement with financial information provider Markit, which compiled the survey. The index is closely watched by investors as a barometer of the country’s economic health. It remained below the breakeven point of 50 but marked the smallest contraction since June, said the statement. It also beat the median estimate of 47.6 in a poll of economists by Bloomberg News. “The slight upswing shows the manufacturing industry’s overall weakening has slowed down, indicating that previous stimulating measures have begun to take effect,” He Fan, an economist at Caixin Insight Group, said in the statement. China’s economy expanded 6.9 percent in the July-September period, the slowest pace since the aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2009, official data showed. Many analysts believe the actual increase was even lower, due to factors such as the weak PMI readings. The government has taken a series of measures to stimulate growth. On October 23 it cut interest rates by 0.25 percent — the sixth reduction in a year — and abolished the official cap on interest rates for savers, a liberalising move. But government intervention intended to halt a stock market rout this summer has increased doubts over policymakers’ competence in managing a transition to a more market-based economy. The Caixin survey showed domestic demand remained subdued, leading total new business to fall. Input costs and selling prices both continued dropping as international commodity prices declined, highlighting deflationary pressures, it added. The Chinese government’s own PMI reading for October stood at 49.8, unchanged from the previous month, the National Bureau of Statistics said Sunday. Xinhua Insight: China enters key phase to avoid middle income trap English.news.cn (http://english.news.cn/) | 2015-10-28 23:56:26 | Editor: huaxia
5.6% growth last month points to sustained weakness in economy amid govt reforms BEIJING • Growth in China’s industrial production, a measure of output at factories, workshops and mines, fell to a six-month low last month, official data showed yesterday, suggesting sustained weakness in the world’s second-largest economy. Industrial output increased 5.6 per cent last month from a year ago, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said, the lowest reading since March’s identical figure, edging down from a 5.7 per cent rise in September. It was also below the median forecast of a 5.8 per cent increase in a survey of economists by Bloomberg News. The figures come as the world worries about growth in China, a leading engine of global expansion. The authorities are trying to transform the country’s growth model to a slower but more sustainable one driven by consumption rather than infrastructure investment, but the transition to the “new normal” is proving bumpy. “The marginal fall in October’s industrial production growth showed support from the rapid development of new industries was still insufficient, while traditional industries were having deep corrections,” the NBS said in a statement. “The industrial economy is still facing downward pressures looking forward,” it said. Overcapacity in manufacturing, a slowdown in the country’s property market and mounting local government debt are among the factors that have weighed on growth. Gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 7.3 per cent last year, the slowest pace since 1990, and at 7 per cent in each of the first two quarters of this year. It decelerated further to 6.9 per cent in the July to September period, its slowest rate in six years. After the bleak third-quarter economic data, China cut interest rates for the sixth time since November last year, and trimmed the reserve requirement ratio – the amount of cash banks must keep in reserve – to boost lending. Last week saw the clearest signal yet that Beijing would lower its growth targets, with President Xi Jinping saying annual expansion of only 6.5 per cent for the 2016-2020 period would be enough to meet its goals. Earlier this month, the authorities pledged to accelerate reforms following a key Communist Party meeting to plot the country’s path for the next five years, but analysts warn that more needs to be done to stop the slowdown. “Despite some positive signs and policy easing already undertaken, growth is likely to soften more into 2016,” Mr Louis Kuijs, an Oxford economics analyst said in a note. “We expect the government to continue to take additional incremental measures to support domestic demand to ensure that growth does not deviate too much from its targets.” Fixed-asset investment, a measure of spending on infrastructure, expanded 10.2 per cent year on year in the January-to-October period, the NBS said. But retail sales, a key indicator of consumer spending, held up well for the month, growing 11 per cent from a year earlier – the fastest increase since a rise of 11.9 per cent in December last year, according to the NBS. It was also slightly better than the median estimate of a 10.9 per cent expansion in the Bloomberg poll. China’s consumer inflation waned in October, while factory- gate deflation extended a record streak of negative readings, data released on Tuesday showed. That followed a tepid trade report suggesting the world’s second-biggest economy is not likely to get a near-term boost from global demand, as overseas shipments dropped 6.9 per cent in October in dollar terms from a year earlier. AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE, BLOOMBERG BEIJING, Oct. 28 (Xinhua) — China is set to avoid the middle income trap in the next five to ten years as innovation and structural adjustment will create new fundamentals to support medium-to-high speed growth. The middle income trap occurs when a country’s growth plateaus and eventually stagnates after reaching middle income levels. China became a middle income country in 2012 after its per capita GDP (http://search.news.cn/language/search.jspa?id=en&t=1&t1=0&ss=&ct=&n1=GDP&x=33&y=11) exceeded 5,000 U.S. dollars, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. China’s per capita GDP was 7,575 dollars last year, and is estimated to hit 10,000 dollars in 2020. World Bank statistics show that only 13 of 101 countries and regions that have entered the middle income stage in the 1960s escaped the middle income trap. This week, from Monday to Thursday, the fifth plenary session of the 18th Communist Party of China Central Committee is held in Beijing to discuss the 13th Five-Year Plan, China’s development blueprint for the next five years (2016-2020). “The next five years will be a key period for China to deepen reforms along with global economic adjustments,” said Zhou Mi, an associate professor in economics at Nankai University in Tianjin Municipality. After three decades of break-neck growth, China’s economy has begun to slow, with GDP growth dropping to a six-year low of 6.9 percent in the third quarter of this year, slightly lower than the 7 percent posted in the previous two quarters. China is striving to move beyond its previous economic mode, which pursued growth at the expense of the environment. While the government has repeatedly assured medium-to-high growth will be maintained and China will not fall into the middle income trap, doubts on the prospects of the economy remain. According to Zhou, China can escape the middle income trap in the next five to ten years through innovation and reforms. The service sector must be improved and much work needs to be done to make this sector strong and competitive, she advised. There are already plenty of signs of improvement. Beijing City on Tuesday relaxed restrictions on foreign investment in financing, travel, entertainment, health and medical insurance. While national strategies such as the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the Belt and Road Initiative and the Yangtze River Economic Belt, will go some way to support economic transformation, according to Zhou. In the first three quarters, Chongqing Municipality in southwest China reported 11 percent growth year on year, the fastest among the 27 provinces that have released their economic data. Zhang Fumin, deputy head of the Chongqing Statistics Bureau, partly attributed the good performance to the city’s high-tech industry. “The new emerging growth drivers are making up for the decline seen at some traditional industries in Chongqing,” he said. “The transition will not happen overnight, as we must wait for these new leading industries to become established and take the economy to the next level,” said Huang Yiping, a professor of economics at the National School of Development, Peking University. “And it will take more than a couple of years before they can begin to do so.” Transforming the growth mode requires completing the transition to a total market economy, which requires successful reforms of state-owned enterprises, Huang added. To avoid the middle income trap, a nation needs high-end innovation, according to analysts. China is encouraging innovation and entrepreneurship to upgrade its growth mode and warm up the febrile economy, through policies to cultivate small businesses and tech startups. To this end, Zhou said, enterprises should invest more in talent and time to really achieve their innovation potential. Already a middle income economy, China cannot overcome the trap by simply relying on structural reforms and expanding domestic consumption, said Edmund Phelps, a Nobel Prizewinning American economist, at an innovation forum held in the eastern business hub Shanghai on Tuesday. China needs to develop, and promote, its own approach to technological innovation, said the economist. Innovation and entrepreneurship could generate more jobs, inspire creativity, boost structural readjustment and facilitate a medium-to-high growth of the economy, said Premier Li Keqiang (http://search.news.cn/language/search.jspa?id=en&t=1&t1=0&ss=&ct=&n1=Li+Keqiang) in Zhongguancun, a major high-tech zone in Beijing last week.
Trends and Cycles in the Macroeconomy in China The government’s policy of promoting heavy industry accounts for China’s persistently rising investment rate and declining labor income share. Between 1997 and 2010, China’s industries steadily increased their capital investment even though the investment-tooutput ratio was increasing and labor’s share of income was trending down. While traditional two-sector models of the Chinese economy are hard pressed to explain these phenomena, a variant that divides the economy into “heavy” and “light” sectors, rather than the traditional state-owned and privately owned sectors, can explain these patterns as well as other macroeconomic regularities, according to Trends and Cycles in China’s Macroeconomy(NBER Working Paper No. 21244 (http://www.nber.org/papers/21244)). Government policies that encouraged loans to capital-intensive industries are a key part of the explanation. “We argue that preferential credit policy for promoting heavy industries accounts for the unusual cyclical patterns as well as the post-1990s economic transition featured by the persistently rising investment rate, the declining labor income share, and a growing foreign surplus,” write authors Chun Chang (http://www.nber.org/people/chun_chang), Kaiji Chen (http://www.nber.org/people/kaiji_chen), Daniel F. Waggoner (http://www.nber.org/people/daniel_waggoner), and Tao Zha (http://www.nber.org/people/tao_zha). Their study collects and analyzes new Chinese data. The authors have created annual and quarterly macroeconomic time series that they say are as consistent as possible with U.S. time series. These data highlight ways in which China’s transition to a developed economy differed from the experience in the West. The authors’ novel division of the economy into heavy and light sectors is based on the decision by the Eighth National People’s Congress in the late 1990s to strengthen heavy industries for 15 years. Telecommunications, energy, metal products, and other heavy sectors were given priority for long-term bank loans. The authors include a collateral constraint in their model, and they argue that preferential access to capital enabled the heavy sector to borrow more, and increase its capital investment, even though the returns from that investment were declining. This accounts for the rising share of the heavy sector in aggregate value-added, the increasing investment rate, and the declining labor income share. The authors attribute some unusual cyclical trends in their data to bank lending frictions. The heavy sector’s expanding demand for credit crowded out the light sector’s demand, pushing up lending rates. Absent lending frictions, increased borrowing would boost wage income and household consumption. In fact, the data do not show this. The authors find that for the period beginning in the late 1990s, there was weak or negative co-movement between aggregate investment and consumption; weak or negative co-movement between aggregate investment and labor income; and a negative co-movement between long-term loans and short-term loans. Without lending frictions, it is difficult to explain both the first and second findings.
“Our theory contributes to the emerging literature on the role of financial market imperfections in economic development,” the authors conclude. “Our theoretical framework sheds light on a potential cause of the twin first-order problems facing China’s macroeconomy today: (a) low consumption and income growth and (b) overcapacity of heavy industries with rising debt risks. How to resolve these problems might have profound policy implications.”
—Laurent Belsie The Digest is not copyrighted and may be reproduced freely with appropriate attribution of source.
China’s Trade Statistics Aren’t Quite As Bad As Some Think Tim Worstall (http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/) , CONTRIBUTOR Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.
We have the Chinese trade statistics today, the numbers compiled from the customs declarations. This is always a slightly dodgy source of such numbers simply because we know very well that some people are lying on their customs declarations. We know this because what is recorded as being exported from (or even imported into) China doesn’t match up with what is being recorded as having been imported from China (or, obviously, exported to). However, we also have no good evidence that the amount of lying going on has changed. So, while we know the numbers are wrong we can still use them to measure trends. And the trend is that imports and exports are falling. We thus conclude that the global economy is slowing (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-08/china-trade-decliningsignals-more-stimulus-measures-coming): A contraction in China’s trade flows shows little alternative for the nation’s leaders than injecting support for domestic demand as they struggle to achieve their growth target. Overseas shipments dropped 6.9 percent in October in dollar terms, the customs administration said Sunday, a bigger decline than estimated by all 31 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Weaker demand for coal, iron and other commodities from declining heavy industries helped push imports down 18.8 percent, leaving a record trade surplus of $61.6 billion.
And yes, all of that is true. However, it might not be quite as true, or perhaps important, as some are making out. For example, that fall in exports is being recorded at US dollar values. Yet the US dollar has been rising against, say, the euro, and some of China’s exports are indeed to the euro area. So even a constant flow in that direction would be recorded as falling, just because of that currency issue. And there’s also the point that the yuan has recently declined 3 or 4 % against the dollar. So those export numbers are not quite such a large decline as the raw numbers make them look. Then there’s an interesting point to make about imports, too (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/as-prices-of-raw-materials-drop-china-october-imports-slump/): Chinese purchases of foreign goods improved from September’s 20.4 percent decline. Purchases of raw materials such as crude oil and soybeans went up in quantities, but China paid far less for the goods than a year ago because of lower prices. Prices are depressed because of weaker global demand, especially from China. The volumes of at least some imports rose, it’s the cash value of them that has declined. And so that’s also not overwhelming evidence of a slowing global economy. And at least some of those price declines (iron ore and oil for example) aren’t as a result of falling demand either. They’re because of increasing supply. Producers thought growth in consumption would be higher than it has been. They geared up to meet demand which is lower than their plans. Such price declines aren’t thus evidence of a slowing economy, not necessarily, they’re just evidence of the economy growing more slowly than people thought it would.
The end result of these corrections is that, at least as far as we know, the Chinese economy is not shrinking, nor in recession. It’s just growing less quickly than people thought it would do. As to what is likely to happen, the Chinese government is very afraid of the idea of even slowing economic growth. Their political legitimacy, such as it is, depends upon the idea that growth will remain at 6 to 7%. Thus yes, we would expect further stimulatory measures because the evidence is, as above, not that growth has stopped, but that it has fallen below that breakneck speed that producers, and the government, were planning upon.
6.5% growth over 5 years needed for ‘modest prosperity,’ says Li OKI NAGAI, Nikkei staff writer SEOUL — Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said Sunday his country’s economy needs to grow by an average of at least 6.5% over the next five years to meet Beijing’s goal of establishing a “moderately prosperous society,” according to China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency. Addressing local business leaders in Seoul, Li said that level of growth was necessary for achieving the Chinese Communist Party’s aim of doubling the country’s gross domestic product and gross national income by 2020 from the 2010 levels, Xinhua reported. Last week, the party issued a communique introducing the framework of its five-year economic plan from 2016. The plan touched on aspirations for medium- to high-speed growth but did not provide any numerical targets. Li said that despite short-term fluctuations in some economic indicators, China’s economy will keep moving in the right direction over the long term. He also said the government has many macroeconomic policy tools for ensuring that the country can withstand the current downward pressure. China’s economy grew 6.9% on the year for the July-September period. Li defended the figure as being within a reasonable range, and said it matched the estimate of “around 7%” given at the start of the year. The premier also talked about plans to establish free trade zones and improve market transparency in order to attract more foreign companies. Bloomberg: With China set to announce its third-quarter gross domestic product report on Monday, skepticism over its economic data is arising anew. Recall that Bill Gross has described (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-02-04/gross-says-risk-assets-vulnerable-with-economic-growth-slow) China as “the mystery meat of emerging-market countries.” Premier Li Keqiang, before taking that post, said he didn’t rely on official statistics. He preferred things like rail freight and electricity use to gauge activity. So is China about to puff up its economic report card once more? Quite the contrary, according to one of the world’s foremost emerging market investors, Mark Mobius. “I know there’s a lot of debate as to whether the numbers are true, whether it’s really 7 percent, but our numbers indicate that it is at least that,” the chairman of the emerging-markets group at Franklin Templeton Investments said in a recent interview with Bloomberg TV. “We think that a lot of the economy is not really being counted because China is being converted from a manufacturing-oriented economy to a service economy.” That gels with the view of Rhodium Group analysts in a September report for the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Their 200-plus page study found China’s GDP methodologies are largely in line with international practices and charges that estimates are sheer fabrications are “misinformed.” Still, they acknowledged that Chinese statistics and their transparency are “sometimes shaped by political interests.” China’s economy is bigger, not smaller than official data suggests, the analysts found, with the services sector the hardest to measure and real estate even more important than currently reflected.
Size matters. A larger economy makes China’s debt-to-GDP ratio appear a little less scary. Output per worker, and therefore labor productivity, looks healthier as well. The energy-intensity of GDP improves too. It also means China could be world’s biggest economy two to three years sooner than otherwise, the analysts found. But it’s not all good news: “It will be harder to wring higher growth out of the structure of today’s more advanced Chinese economy in the years ahead,” authors Daniel H. Rosen and Beibei Bao wrote.
As for Monday’s reading, economists forecast the government will say GDP growth slowed to 6.8 percent in the three months through September from a year earlier. That would be the slowest quarterly pace since 2009.
That isn’t deterring Mobius, who says: “The transition is definitely on its way and is going to be successful.” smh: As a rout in Chinese stocks this year erased $US5 trillion of value, investors fled for safety in the nation’s red-hot corporate bond market. They may have just moved from one bubble to another. So says Commerzbank, which puts the chance of a crash by year-end at 20 per cent, up from almost zero in June. Industrial Securities and Huachuang Securities are warning of an unsustainable rally after bond prices climbed to six-year highs and issuance jumped to a record. The boom contrasts with caution elsewhere. A selloff in global corporate notes has pushed yields to a 21-month high, and credit-derivatives traders are demanding near the most in two years to insure against losses on Chinese government securities. While an imminent collapse isn’t yet the base-case scenario for most forecasters, China’s 42.1 trillion yuan ($US6.6 trillion) bond market is flashing the same danger signs that triggered a tumble in stocks four months ago: stretched valuations, a surge in investor leverage and shrinking corporate profits. A reversal would add to challenges facing China’s ruling Communist Party, which has struggled to contain volatility in financial markets amid the deepest economic slowdown since 1990. “The Chinese government is caught between a rock and hard place,” said Zhou Hao, a senior economist in Singapore at Commerzbank, Germany’s second-largest lender. “If it doesn’t intervene, the bond market will actually become a bubble. And if it does, the market could crash the way the equity market did due to fast de-leveraging.” The slide in stocks is one reason why corporate bonds have done so well (https://www.google.com.au/url? sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CEAQFjACahUKEwjDpdeOnLTIAhUIGJQKHVOsBk0&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.afr.com%2Fpersonalfinance%2Fshares%2Fwhy-china-stock-market-fall-is-great-buying-opportunity-into-asian-middleclass-megatrend-20150724gik5g6&usg=AFQjCNGUbTHTnmV3W1i9PPS3QPVkZ8AJdQ&sig2=tuUkRPjX_xPTGOPlTzAR5w&bvm=bv.104819420,d.dGo), prompting a 91 per cent jump in issuance last quarter. Many investors who sold shares during the Shanghai Composite Index’s 39 per cent drop from its June high have ploughed the proceeds into debt, viewing the market as a haven given its history of almost negligible defaults. Five interest rate cuts since November have also fuelled gains as the People’s Bank of China seeks to revive growth with lower borrowing costs. Yields on top-rated corporate notes due in five years have declined 79 basis points, or 0.79 percentage point, this year to 4.01 per cent. The yield premium over similar-maturity government securities has dropped to 97 basis points, near the lowest since 2009.
More damage could be done By contrast, the yield on corporate notes globally has increased 26 basis points to 2.92 per cent. Credit-default swaps on China’s sovereign debt jumped to a more than two-year high of 133 basis points in September and were last at 113 basis points. A reversal in the bond market would do more damage to China’s economy (http://www.afr.com/business/banking-and-finance/bank-risk-spreads-at-twoyear-highs-on-china-fears-20151005gk1frg) than the drop in shares and exacerbate capital flight from the biggest emerging market, according to a worst- case scenario projected by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria. The Spanish lender more than doubled its first-quarter profit by selling holdings in a Chinese bank. “The equity rout merely reflects worries about China’s economy, while a bond market crash would mean the worries have become a reality as corporate debts (http://www.afr.com/markets/too-much-focus-on-china-debt-growth-citigroup-20140512-itv2r) go unpaid,” said Xia Le, the chief economist for Asia at Banco Bilbao. “A Chinese credit collapse would also likely spark a more significant selloff in emerging-market assets.” For all the concerns about a bond rout, default levels in China have so far been remarkably low, thanks in part to government-orchestrated bailouts for troubled firms. Just four companies have defaulted on onshore bonds, including Shanghai Chaori Solar Energy Science & Technology, which became the first to renege on its debt (http://www.afr.com/business/creditor-seekscourtapproved-revamp-of-chaori-solar-20140404-ix801) in 2014. China has the wherewithal to stave off a crisis in its credit markets, according to Ken Hu, chief investment officer for Asia-Pacific fixed income at Invesco. “Unlike most other emergingmarket countries, China has high domestic saving rates, little government debt, healthy fiscal balances, strong trade and current account surpluses, and most of its corporate debts are domestic,” he said.
Unprecedented lengths Policy makers went to unprecedented lengths to combat the tumble in share prices, including compelling state-owned firms to buy equities and preventing major stockholders from selling. The Shanghai Composite rose 3 per cent on Thursday (http://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/chinas-stocks-rise-after-trading-break-amid-targeted-stimulus-20151008-gk45uv), the steepest advance in three weeks. A recovery in the equity market could be the trigger for a selloff in bonds as money managers liquidate their holdings to catch the rally in stocks, according to Thomas Kwan, the Hong Kongbased chief investment officer at Harvest Global Investments, whose Chinese unit offers funds through the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor program. The risk of a downward spiral in debt prices has increased after investors took on leverage to amplify their returns, according to Ping An Securities. The monthly volume of bond repurchase agreements — a form of borrowing used by investors to increase their buying power – has jumped 83 per cent from January to 39 trillion yuan in September, according to data from the Chinamoney website. About 16 per cent of companies on the Shanghai stock exchange lost money in the past 12 months, double the proportion last year, and the number of firms with debt levels twice their equity has doubled to 347 since 2007. Profits at Chinese industrial companies sank 8.8 percent in August from a year earlier, the biggest decline since the government began releasing monthly data in 2011. Baoding Tianwei Yingli New Energy Resources, a maker of solar components, could become the latest Chinese company to default on local-currency notes after its parent said it’s unlikely to meet a deadline next week on a 1 billion yuan bond. “Global investors are looking for signs of a collapse in China, which itself could increase the chances of a crash,” Commerzbank’s Zhou said. “This game can’t go on forever. Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/if-you-thought-chinas-equity-bubble-was-scary-check-out-bonds-20151009-gk5455.html#ixzz3oYj72njj (http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/if-you-thought-chinas-equity-bubble-was-scary-check-out-bonds-20151009-gk5455.html#ixzz3oYj72njj) Follow us: @smh on Twitter (http://ec.tynt.com/b/rw?id=aBfWCmwwCr37XTadbiUzgI&u=smh) | sydneymorningherald on Facebook (http://ec.tynt.com/b/rf? id=aBfWCmwwCr37XTadbiUzgI&u=sydneymorningherald)
66666666688888888866666666666666 BEIJING, Oct. 21 (Xinhua) — China is on a rise from a world factory of cheap products with low technological content to a manufacturing powerhouse amid its economic restructuring. As the country growth slows and its labor costs keep rising, only those enterprises that are quick in taking measures to move up the value chains are better positioned to achieve manufacturing excellence. In 2012, a government plan listed seven industries including energy conservation and environmental protection, high end equipment manufacturing, bio-tech and new energy as “strategic emerging industries.” China aims to make these industries account for 15 percent of the GDP (http://search.news.cn/language/search.jspa? id=en&t=1&t1=0&ss=&ct=&n1=GDP&x=33&y=11) by 2020. These ambitions are coming to fruition. Statistics showed that last year 18 industries, including the aforementioned seven emerging industries, reported a yearly revenue of 15.9 trillion yuan (2.5 trillion U.S. dollars) and a profit of 1.2 trillion yuan, up 13.5 percent and 17.6 percent respectively. As the Chinese economy is in the midst of a painful transformation from investment-led growth model to one that is driven by innovation and consumption, a growing emphasis on technological edges becomes sensible. Many domestic enterprises make little money because they don’t have independent brands, independent design or independent core technology, said Wang Haizhong, head of China Brand Strategy Research Center. Wang expects that upgrading low value-added products will become even more important as the manufacturing sector weakens. September’s manufacturing activity data plunged to a 78-month low. The country’s value-added industrial output expanded 5.7 percent year on year in September, down from 6.1 percent in August, according to the data released on Monday. If China wants to move up the global industry chain, it has to change. A manufacturing base that merely processes goods will no longer suffice. This means developing emerging industries with their own, independent technological edges, said Li Beiguang of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Intelligent manufacturing, according to Li Beiguang, will require new core technology, improved use of human resources and better funding. It is down to the government to create the right environment for innovation, provide more financial and fiscal support, train more talent and strengthen information security, he said. Changes are already happening. While high end equipment manufacturing accounted for a mere eight percent in China’s manufacturing sector during 2006 and 2010, the figure is expected to have risen to 20 percent during 2011 and 2015. In the next five years, high end equipment manufacturing in some key industries is expected to even rise to 50 percent, according to Li Dong, director of Office of Major Technological Equipment. Tuesday, October 20, 2015, 14:33
China’s financial sector grows stronger By Xinhua BEIJING – The output of the financial sector jumped 16.1 percent year on year to 1.41 trillion yuan (US$221.8 billion) in the third quarter, well above the national GDP growth of 6.9 percent, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The overall tertiary industry, including financial and other service sectors, expanded 8.6 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the NBS figures showed. The primary industry grew only 4.1 percent, while the secondary industry grew 5.8 percent. While China’s economy continued to lose steam, the benchmark stock market index still hovers at a level more than 40 percent higher than the previous year, though market turmoil since June has subdued investment. China has put more emphasis on promoting growth in services and domestic consumption in the process of deepening structural reforms. In the first three quarters, the value added of the tertiary industry accounted for 51.4 percent of GDP, up 2.3 percentage points from the same period last year, official data show. Tuesday, October 13, 2015, 20:38
China’s 2011-2015 growth to near 8% By Xinhua BEIJING – China’s annual economic growth will be a little less than 8 percent during the 12th five-year plan (2011-2015) period, much higher than world growth of around 2.5 percent, an official report said Tuesday. In the 2011-2014 period, the economy expanded by an annual rate of 8 percent, slower than growth of about 10 percent in the previous three decades, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said in a report on its website. China’s growth contributed to more than 25 percent of total world economic growth from 2011 to 2014. The report added that China’s economic structure also optimized with the shift from the reliance on investment to consumption and from the industrial sector to services. By the first half of 2015, China’s service sector represented 49.5 percent in the country’s total GDP, higher than a 43.7 percent share of the industrial sector. From 2011-2014, consumption contributed to 54.8 percent of the country’s economic growth, higher than 47 percent from investment. BEIJING – Perekonomian China tumbuh lebih cepat dari perkiraan ekonom pada kuartal III tahun ini didukung sektor jasa. Biro Statistik Nasional China menyatakan, produk domestik bruto (PDB) China naik 6,9% dalam tiga bulan hingga September dari tahun sebelumnya. Angka ini mengalahkan perkiraan ekonom sebesar 6,8%. Namun, ini adalah pertumbuhan ekonomi kuartalan paling lambat sejak tiga bulan pertama 2009. Ketahanan ekonomi didukung kuatnya sektor jasa dan konsumsi, mengimbangi melemahnya data di bidang manufaktur dan ekspor. Pemerintah telah memangkas suku bunga lima kali sejak November dan meningkatkan belanja infrastruktur dalam beberapa bulan terakhir untuk menjaga pertumbuhan tidak tergelincir terlalu jauh di bawah target tahun ini sekitar 7%. “Sektor jasa tumbuh jauh lebih cepat daripada sektor manufaktur. Ini yang kita sebut ekonomi dua kecepatan, perlambatan manufaktur adalah masalah yang lebih besar bagi perekonomian China dalam waktu dekat,” kata Kepala Ekonom di JPMorgan Zhu Haibin, seperti dilansir dari Bloomberg, Senin (19/10/2015). Produksi manufaktur pada September naik 5,7% dari tahun sebelumnya, dibandingkan dengan estimasi ekonom sebesar 6%. Penjualan retail meningkat 10,9%, dibandingkan perkiraan dengan kenaikan 10,8%. Investasi aset tetap naik 10,3% dalam sembilan bulan pertama dari periode yang sama tahun lalu, dibandingkan dengan proyeksi kenaikan 10,8%. Itu laju paling lambat sejak tahun 2000. Laju pertumbuhan di sektor jasa tumbuh 8,4% pada kuartal III, sementara industri sekunder, yang meliputi manufaktur melemah ke 6%. Sentimen China memberi imbas kepada dunia lebih dari sebelumnya, seiirng dengan Gubernur Federal Reserve Janet Yellen yang menunda menaikkan suku bunga pada bulan lalu karena khawatir terhadap ekonomi China. Data Bank Dunia menyebutkan, China menyumbang 13,3% dari PDB global tahun lalu. (rna) source: http://ekbis.sindonews.com/read/1054213/35/perekonomian-china-kuartal-iii-tumbuh-lampaui-perkiraan-1445223364 (http://ekbis.sindonews.com/read/1054213/35/perekonomianchina-kuartal-iii-tumbuh-lampaui-perkiraan-1445223364)
6666699999999666666 Bisnis.com, BEIJING – Pertumbuhan ekonomi China pada kuartal ketiga tahun ini diperkirakan akan melambat. Median estimasi dalam survei Bloomberg menyebutkan produk domestik bruto (PDB) Negeri Panda selama tiga bulan hingga September 2015 hanya tumbuh 6,8% atau yang terlambat sejak 2009. “Data PDB yang akan dikeluarkan diperkirakan akan membuat pertumbuhan tahunan tidak mencapai target 7%,” kata Analis Mata Uang Senior Malayan Banking Bhd. Fiona Lim, Jumat (16/10/2015). Hal itu dapat terjadi karena data sebelumnya menunjukkan harga-harga di level produsen mengalami penurunan. Begitu juga dengan kinerja impor yang mengalami kontraksi. Sementara itu, lemahnya perkiraan PDB pemilik ekonomi terbesar kedua di dunia ditambah kurang menyenangkannya data-data yang keluar terlebih dahulu membuat yuan mencapai level terendahnya dalam dua minggu. Berdasarkan China Foreign Exchange Trade System, yuan pada pukul 12.09 siang waktu setempat melemah menjadi 6,3580 per dolar Amerika Serikat (AS). Sementara itu di pasar Hong Kong, mata uang China mencapai level terlemah dalam dua bulan dengan anjlok 0,39%. “Yuan akan tetap melemah pada kuartal ini,” kata Lim. Dia menambahkan, hal itu dapat terjadi karena permintaan perusahaan terhadap dolar untuk membayar utang cukup tinggi. Yuan akan sedikit menguat ketika berhasil masuk dalam keranjang cadangan mata uang Dana Moneter Internasional (Internasional Monetary Fund/IMF). Untuk memasukan yuan dalam Special Drawing Rights (SDR) IMF, Wakil Gubernur Bank Sentral China (People’s Bank of China/PBoC) Yi Gang mengatakan bank sentral berencana melakukan beberapa hal seperti membuka pasar obligasi dan mata uang dalam negeri untuk bank sentral asing. Kemudian, PBoC juga mengeluarkan treasury tenor tiga bulan secara mingguan untuk membangun ketertarikan terhadap yuan. Menurut salah seorang sumber yang mengetahui masalah, otoritas berusaha menambah waktu perdagangan yuan di dalam negeri lebih lama. Hal ini dilakukan agar pasar tetap buka saat pasar Eropa masih buka. “Perdagangan di Shanghai akan tutup pada pukul 11.30 malam waktu setempat dari pukul 04.30,” kata sumber tersebut. Waktu tutup perdagangan rencananya akan diubah pada akhir November tahun ini. Kemudian, PBoC juga mengatakan berencana melakukan perdagangan langsung antara yuan dan Swiss franc. Indeka harga produsen (IHP) China pada September tahun ini naik 1,6% dari tahun sebelumnya. Pertumbuhan ini lebih lambat jika dibandingkan dengan periode yang sama pada Agustus 2015, 2%. Sementara impor terkontraksi 17,7% dalam denominasi yuan pada bulan kesembilan 2015. Begitu juga dengan ekspor yang anjlok 1,1%.
66666666688888888866666666666666 cnbc: China’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.6 percent in September from a year earlier, against forecasts of a 1.8 percent rise from a Reuters poll and following August’s 2 percent gain. The producer price index (PPI) fell 5.9 percent, in line with expectations and after a 5.9 percent fall in the previous month. The PPI, which measures wholesale prices, clocked its 43rd straight month of declines as overcapacity in a number of sectors coupled with a lack of demand kept a lid on prices. The latest inflation numbers, which come on the heels of weak import data, reflect continued slack in the world’s second largest economy. Imports tumbled by a worse-than-expected 20.4 percent in September, following a 13.8 percent slide in the previous month, data on Tuesday showed. Inflation and trade data come days before the publication of China’s highly anticipated third quarter GDP report on October 19. The economy is forecast to have slowed further in the JulySeptember period, dipping below 7 percent and down from 7 percent growth in the first two quarters of the year. BEIJING china daily – China’s foreign trade dropped 8.8 percent year on year to 2.22 trillion yuan (about US$352 billion) in September, less severe than the 9.7-percent contraction in August, official data showed on Tuesday. Exports dropped 1.1 percent to 1.3 trillion yuan and imports decreased 17.7 percent to 924 billion yuan. The trade surplus totaled 376.2 billion yuan, up 96.1 percent, the General Administration of Customs said. For the first three quarters, foreign trade dropped 7.9 percent year on year to 17.87 trillion yuan with exports down 1.8 percent to 10.24 trillion yuan and imports down 15.1 percent to 7.63 trillion yuan. Trade surplus surged by 82.1 percent to 2.61 trillion yuan. GAC spokesperson Huang Songping attributed the drops to the sluggish global economy, high costs and slumping commodity prices, citing data from the World Trade Organization that showed global exports dropped 10.9 percent year on year in the first seven months. China’s foreign trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative hit 4.5 trillion yuan, accountign for about 25 percent of the total foreign trade in the first three quarters of the year. China reported 2.59 trillion yuan in trade with the European Union, its largest trade partner, in the first three quarters, 2.54 trillion yuan in trade with the United States, its second-largest trade partner, and 2.11 trillion yuan with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), its third-largest trade partner. Exports to emerging markets have been rising. Foreign trade grew 5.8 percent with ASEAN, 8.7 percent with India, 1.3 percent with Latin America and 6.1 percent with Africa. Exports to Japan, China’s fifth-largest trade partner, dropped 11 percent year on year to 1.27 trillion yuan. Persistent weakness in demand at home and abroad could spell even more pain for trade-reliant Chinese firms in coming months. Imports are also a leading indicator for exports, with a large share of materials and parts re-exported as finished goods. China is widely expected to post its slowest economic growth in a quarter of a century this year as activity is weighed down by weakening demand at home and abroad, factory overcapacity, high debt levels and cooling investment. telegraph: Investors who put money into emerging markets 10 years ago are sitting pretty today: the average fund that specialises in the region has doubled in value. Those who invested more recently will be disappointed. Over the past year the average emerging markets fund has lost 10pc. The prospect of interest rate rises in America has dampened appetite for these riskier stock markets. A rate rise in the US would be bad news for emerging markets because their debts would become more expensive to service. But there is no reason to panic, according to Gary Greenberg, one of the few emerging market fund managers to turn a profit over the past five years. His Hermes Emerging Market Equity fund has gained 18pc, compared with a 1pc loss for the average fund. Here he explains why he remains optimistic about the prospects for emerging markets.
What tests do you apply to a share before you buy? The main test is to find companies that have a pretty good reason for being in business. So I am ideally looking for firms that possess some form of competitive advantage. It is also crucial as an emerging market investor to assess the management team and gauge whether they have respect for their minority shareholders. I then analyse each country. We have a screen that uses various valuation measures. We then combine these scores with ratings for the economy and political risk. The latter is extremely important as a new government with a reform agenda can have such a positive impact. Political interference, on the other hand, tends to have the opposite effect.
Which countries score well according to your system at the moment? The two that score well are China and Russia, but I have actually been selling China recently. Its stock market has soared over the past year, but one of the main drivers was the huge amount of money Chinese investors were borrowing from stockbrokers to try to profit from the rise. With the amount of debt that had built up it was inevitable the market would start to shake at some point so I have quite aggressively cut the fund’s exposure to the region from 36pc to 30pc. Two of my favourite stocks are Kweichou Moutai, a 2,000-year old brand and the largest spirits company in China, and Daqin Railway, which operates the largest coal transportation line in the world. I have redeployed this money into India and Taiwan. India has hit a few bumps over the past couple of months, with some of prime minister Narendra Modi’s planned reforms failing to get the green light. The market is also a tad expensive. But I am finding enough opportunities. Stocks I like include Power Grid Corporation, which transmits around 50pc of India’s electricity.
Which countries are you avoiding? There are so many countries that I would love to put more money into, but I just cannot find enough quality businesses at the right price. The Philippines, for instance, has great economic potential, but I just cannot find the stocks. The same is true for Mexico. Korea and Brazil are two countries where the fund does not have much exposure. The trouble with Korea is that companies are not profitable enough – they are quite often run by families that are not particularly shareholder friendly and do not pay dividends. Brazil has too many political and economic problems. These factors, coupled with lower commodity prices, make me anxious about investing there.
How can British investors profit from the emerging markets over the next decade? I would suggest sticking to the more mature emerging markets – China and India – rather than the up and coming “frontier” markets such as Africa. There are big question marks over whether these countries will ever have the political stability to develop into modern economies to attract foreign investment. To grow an economy, a set of rules needs to be firmly in place. Growth has been impressive over the past decade, but this has been supported by the commodity boom. Over the next decade or two China and India have the best potential for investors to make money. Both have plenty of innovative companies that add value in their respective industries.
Do you invest your own money in the fund? I put my own money into the fund when I took it over in July 2011.
What would you have done if you hadn’t become a fund manager? I wanted to be a Buddhist monk.
Our view Emerging markets have great economic potential thanks to their youthful populations and rapidly growing middle classes. But financial advisers stress that savers need to be patient and hold their nerve because sharp short-term selloffs will occur. Ten years is seen as a minimum holding period to ride out the higher volatility and extra risk that come with these less mature stock markets. Financial advisers such as Gavin Haynes, who works for Whitechurch Securities, favour funds that invest across the emerging markets over the riskier “single-country” funds. Mr Haynes said the Hermes fund was on his “watch list”. “I like it because the manager has a wealth of experience, having invested in the emerging markets for 20 years,” he said. “In the short term we remain cautious. But the extent of underperformance of these markets means that valuations are now pricing in a pessimistic outlook and it could be time to start increasing your exposure.” JP Morgan Emerging Markets Income and Threadneedle Global Emerging Markets Equity were tipped as alternatives by Mr Haynes. Amaya Assan of Square Mile, the fund research firm, named Lazard Emerging Markets Core Equity and Fidelity Emerging Markets as her two favourites. First State Asia Pacific Leaders and Aberdeen Asia Pacific Equity are also extremely popular with fund analysts. Both funds tend to hold up well when stock markets fall out of form. How to buy the fund as cheaply as possible The fund has a total cost (the “OCF” or “TER”) of 1.17pc a year, more than on other funds, which typically charge 0.9pc. Be sure to buy the right “share class”, which is “F”. The investment shop through which you buy the fund will also levy a charge – some as a percentage of the amount invested, some as a flat annual fee. Our tables (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/isas/10611058/Tables-cheapest-fund-supermarkets-for-Isa-investing.html) will guide you to the cheapest fund shop according to the size of your portfolio. Metrotvnews.com, Beijing: Mata uang yuan Tiongkok mengambil alih posisi yen Jepang dan naik ke tempat keempat di antara mata uang pembayaran dunia. Organisasi Transaksi Global SWIFT memaparkan, Yuan yang juga dikenal sebagai renminbi, menguasai 2,79 persen pangsa pembayaran dunia berdasarkan nilai pada Agustus. “Yuan mengalahkan pangsa pasar yen sebesar 2,76 persen. Posisi yen terkikis ke tempat kelima,” ujar laporan tersebut sebagaimana dikutip dari Antara, Selasa (6/10/2015). Lembaga tersebut menekankan bahwa selama tiga tahun terakhir, yuan telah melonjak melewati tujuh mata uang dunia. Sebagai catatan, pada Agustus 2012 yuan berada di peringkat ke-12 dengan pangsa hanya 0,84 persen. “Mata uang juga lebih memantapkan dirinya sebagai mata uang yang dominan untuk pembiayaan perdagangan di dolar AS,” tambahnya. Pada Agustus greenback di peringkat teratas sebagai mata uang pembayaran utama dunia dengan pangsa 44,82 persen, SWIFT mengatakan, diikuti oleh euro pada 27,20 persen dan pound Inggris di 8,45 persen. Tiongkok berusaha membuat yuan digunakan lebih besar secara internasional sejalan dengan posisinya sebagai ekonomi terbesar kedua di dunia. Beberapa analis memprediksi mata uang Tiongkok pada suatu hari akan menyaingi dolar AS, yang saat ini sebagai mata uang cadangan utama dunia. SAW http://ekonomi.metrotvnews.com/read/2015/10/06/438190/yuan-kalahkan-yen-dalam-pembayaran-mata-uang-dunia (http://ekonomi.metrotvnews.com/read/2015/10/06/438190/yuankalahkan-yen-dalam-pembayaran-mata-uang-dunia) Sumber : METROTVNEWS.COM BEIJING, KOMPAS.com – Utang luar negeri China hingga akhir Juni 2015 mencapai 1,68 triliun dollar AS, naik sebesar 6,9 miliar dollar AS dari akhir Maret. Demikian data dari regulator valas negara itu menunjukkan Jumat (2/10/2015). Sebagian besar utang kepada kreditor asing itu atau sekitar 70 persen dari total utang luar negeri, dihasilkan dari pinjaman jangka pendek, seperti utang luar negeri dengan jangka waktu satu tahun atau kurang sebesar sekitar 1,17 triliun dollar AS. “Sementara sisanya merupakan utang luar negeri jangka panjang dan menengah sebesar 510 miliar dollar AS,” sebut State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) dalam sebuah pernyataan di situs webnya. Dalam struktur mata uang, utang tersebut berdenominasi dalam dollar AS 80 persen dan dalam euro dan yen Jepang masing-masing 6 persen dan 4 persen. “Jumlah tersebut tidak termasuk utang luar negeri dari daerah administrasi khusus Hong Kong dan Makau,” kata SAFE. Adapun cadangan devisa China pada akhir Agustus ini, mencapai 3,56 triliun dollar AS. Informasi saja, utang luar negeri Indonesia sendiri pada akhir triwulan I-2015 mencapai 298,1 miliar dollar AS. Sementara cadangan devisa hingga akhir Agustus ini mencapai 105,34 miliar dollar AS. Editor
: Erlangga Djumena
Sumber
: ANTARA, XINHUA (http://bisniskeuangan.kompas.com/read/2015/10/03/140500226/Utang.Luar.Negeri.China.Capai.1.68.Triliun.Dollar.AS)
china daily: China can meet its main goals of economic and social development set for this year, Premier Li Keqiang said on Wednesday. The premier made the remarks while addressing a reception at the Great Hall of the People marking the 66th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. “Facing a sluggish world economy and mounting downward pressure at home, we have adopted effective range-based, targeted and discretionary macro-regulation to ensure that China’s economy continues to move in a positive direction despite some ups and downs,” Li said. “The economy still operates within a reasonable range, with the quality of development further improved and systemic risks effectively checked.” He emphasized that China “will be able to meet the main goals and tasks of economic and social development for this year.” The premier announced the main goals of economic and social development for 2015 when delivering the government’s Work Report at the annual session of the National People’s Congress, or the top legislature, in March. According to the goals, the GDP is expected to grow by around 7 percent and the consumer price index by around 3 percent.
More than 10 million new jobs will be created, while imports and exports will increase by around 6 percent. Energy intensity – a measure of units of energy used per unit of GDP – will be cut by at least 3.1 percent. The premier said on Wednesday that it is not easy for China, the world’s second-largest economy, to maintain a growth rate of around 7 percent on the $10 trillion GDP baseline. “And it will be even more challenging to build a brighter future from the new starting point.” To reach the goal, the premier said, China must further innovate the model of macro-regulation, expand domestic demand and adjust the structure of development. It also has to build on the foundation of sound economic growth, improve the quality and efficiency of development, and effectively prevent and control risks of all kinds, he said. He added that Beijing will “support Hong Kong and Macao in ensuring prosperity, stability and harmony and continued progress”. world bank: Since initiating market reforms in 1978, China has shifted from a centrally planned to a market based economy and experienced rapid economic and social development. GDP growth averaging about 10 percent a year has lifted more than 500 million people out of poverty. All Millennium Development Goals have been reached or are within reach. With a population of 1.3 billion, China recently became the second largest economy and is increasingly playing an important and influential role in the global economy. Yet China remains a developing country (its per capita income is still a fraction of that in advanced countries) and its market reforms are incomplete. Official data shows that about 98.99 million people still lived below the national poverty line of RMB 2,300 per year at the end of 2012. With the second largest number of poor in the world after India, poverty reduction remains a fundamental challenge. Rapid economic ascendance has brought on many challenges as well, including high inequality; rapid urbanization; challenges to environmental sustainability; and external imbalances. China also faces demographic pressures related to an aging population and the internal migration of labor. Significant policy adjustments are required in order for China’s growth to be sustainable. Experience shows that transitioning from middle-income to high-income status can be more difficult than moving up from low to middle income. China’s 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015) forcefully addresses these issues. It highlights the development of services and measures to address environmental and social imbalances, setting targets to reduce pollution, to increase energy efficiency, to improve access to education and healthcare, and to expand social protection. Its annual growth target of 7 percent signals the intention to focus on quality of life, rather than pace of growth. Last Updated: Sep 18, 2015
State-owned Chinese companies are pouring billions of dollars into projects in the United States. As Chinese President Xi Jinping hopscotched across the U.S. on his first state visit, he tried to reassure American companies that China is open for business, despite complaints by multinationals of increasing Chinese market restrictions. But the deteriorating business environment in China is only half the story. In recent years, through a state policy called “go global,” Chinese state-owned companies have sought investment opportunities in the United States. In one of the splashiest recent deals, Ambang Insurance Group, a firm with connections to China’s leadership ranks, bought New York’s Waldorf Astoria Hotel. Indeed, President Xi will be staying at the luxury hotel when he visits the United Nations, displacing its usual occupant, U.S. President Barack Obama. The following map uses data provided by the risk management firm RWR Advisory Group’s IntelTrak service (http://www.rwradvisory.com/about-inteltrak) to chart all U.S. investments in North American made by companies that are at least partially owned by the Chinese government. What China Owns in North America While Republican presidential candidates accuse China of stealing American jobs, Chinese investments in places like South Carolina and California will likely benefit from the investment. Already, Michigan has welcomed more than $600 million in Chinese investment over the past four years. Overall, Chinese firms sent $6.4 billion to the U.S. in the first half of this year, according to Rhodium Group. China is the fastest-growing national investor in America, targeting real estate, hospitality and technology services, in particular, also according to Rhodium.
Still, the U.S. isn’t profiting from Chinese investment as much as other countries have. Success in securing a bilateral investment treaty is proving elusive. Earlier this month, China’s Commerce Ministry predicted that the country’s global outbound direct investment would exceed $1 trillion this year for the first time ever. Last year, Chinese investors established almost 30,000 enterprises overseas, according to the Commerce Ministry. For all the cash pouring in, the U.S. is still playing catchup to Europe and the developing world. U.S. Takes Step Toward Support for China’s Reserve-Currency Bid Andrew MayedaSep 25, 2015 5:39 pm ET (Bloomberg) — The Obama administration took a step toward backing China’s bid to have the yuan recognized as a global reserve currency, as the U.S. softened its insistence that the Chinese implement financial reforms to win support. The International Monetary Fund is reviewing whether the yuan should be included in its Special Drawing Rights, a basket of reserve currencies used by the lender as a unit of account. After U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping met Friday in Washington, the two sides issued a statement saying the U.S. supports the inclusion of the yuan “provided the currency meets the IMF’s existing criteria in its SDR review,” a point Xi highlighted in his press conference with Obama. The shift in the U.S. position follows the administration’s failed attempt to prevent allies from joining the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank earlier this year, a strategy that was faulted by former policy makers including ex- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. In June, a joint statement by the two countries said the U.S. “supports China making the reforms that would lead to the inclusion” of the yuan in the basket. Friday’s statement mentions U.S. support for “China’s commitment to implement further financial and capital market reforms.” The new language clarified to the Chinese that the IMF’s assessment of whether the yuan meets the fund’s SDR criteria will be the determining factor for American support, said an administration official who asked not to be identified.
Winning the IMF’s endorsement would validate efforts by Xi to push through policies aimed at making the world’s second- biggest economy more market-oriented, boosting China’s prestige as it prepares to host Group of 20 gatherings next year. At least $1 trillion of global reserves will convert to Chinese assets if the yuan joins the IMF’s reserve basket, according to Standard Chartered Plc and AXA Investment Managers. “The train delivering the SDR to President Xi in time for the November 2016 G-20 Summit in Hangzhou remains on schedule,” said David Loevinger, managing director of emergingmarkets sovereign research at asset manager TCW Group Inc. in Los Angeles. There’s “plenty of wiggle room” within the IMF criteria to allow China to meet the fund’s requirements, said Loevinger, a former senior coordinator of China affairs at the U.S. Treasury. The IMF’s executive board will make a decision on the yuan reserve-currency issue as soon as November. Approval requires 70 percent of the fund’s voting shares, and even if the U.S. opposed the move, the nation would need several allies because the U.S. has about 17 percent of votes. Many analysts have been predicting approval. The U.S. and China also look forward to continuing to discuss methods to facilitate yuan trading and clearing in the U.S., according to the joint statement. U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew in previous comments this year has put the onus on China to prove the yuan belongs, saying the country needs to further liberalize its currency policy and complete financial reforms before it can get the IMF’s nod. Friday’s shift brings the U.S. closer to the positions of the U.K. and France. In a speech Tuesday in Shanghai, U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said he’d like to see the yuan added to the IMF basket as the currency becomes increasingly important in global markets and “meets existing IMF criteria.” French Finance Minister Michel Sapin said last week in Beijing that France favors including the yuan in the SDR basket, though China still needs to meet the IMF’s technical requirements first, according to Francois Coen, Sapin’s spokesman. Bisnis.com, WASHINGTON – Pemerintahan Obama memutuskan untuk mendukung keinginan China agar menjadikan yuan sebagai mata uang global dengan cara memperlunak desakan agar negara Asia itu mempercepat reformasi finansial. Seperti dikutip dari Bloomberg, Minggu (27/9/2015), IMF saat ini tengah melakukan peninjauan apakah yuan bisa dimasukkan ke dalam Spesial Drawing Right, kelompok mata uang yang bisa digunakan oleh peminjam internasional sebagai alat pembayaran. Setelah Presiden AS Barrack Obama dan Presiden China Xi Jinping menggelar pertemuan pada akhir pekan lalu, kedua belah pihak menyatakan bahwa yuan harus memenuhi kriteria yang dipersyaratkan IMF. Pergeseran posisi AS menyusul kegagalan upaya pemerintah untuk mencegah bergabungnya para sekutu dengan China terkait isu Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank awal tahun ini, yang merupakan strategi yang salah dari para pembuat kebijakan termasuk mantan Menteri Keuangan Henry Paulson. Sumber Bloomberg mengatakan terjadi perubahan pernyataan yang mendasar mengenai persoalan perekonomian China sepanjang tahun ini. Dalam pernyataan bersama pada Juni, AS mendukung China melakukan reformasi dengan tujuan memasukkan yuan ke dalam kelompok SDR. Sementara pada pernyataan bersama pekan lalu, AS mendukung komitmen China untuk melaksanakan reformasi keuangan dan pasar modal lebih lanjut. “Bahasa baru yang mengklarifikasikan ke China bahwa penilaian IMF apakah yuan memenuhi kriteria SDR akan menjadi faktor penentu untuk dukungan Amerika,” ujarnya. Mendapatkan sokongan dari IMF akan memfailidasi upaya Xi untuk menjadikan China lebih berorientasi pasar dan meningkatkan prestise negara itu yang akan menjadi tuan rumah pelaksanaan pertemuan G20 tahun depan. Menurut analis dari Standartd Chartered Plc dan AXA Investment Management, setidaknya sebanyak US$1 triliun cadangan devisa global akan dikonversi menjadi asset China jika Negeri Tirai Bambu itu bergabung dalam SDR. “Ada banyak ruang gerak dalam kriteria IMF yang memungkinkan China untuk memenuhi kebutuhan dana itu. Pada November saya yakin China akan masuk ke dalam SDR,” kata David Lovinger, dari TCW Group Inc. Dewan eksekutif IMF akan membuat keputusan pada November. Persetujuan membutuhkan 70% pemegang suara sesuai saham. Bahkan jika AS menentang langkah itu, negara ini akan membutuhkan beberapa sekutu karena AS memiliki sekitar 17% suara. Banyak analis telah memprediksi bahwa IMF akan menyetujui keinginan China itu. Menurut pernyataan bersama pekan lalu, AS dan China juga berharap untuk terus membahas metode untuk memfasilitasi perdagangan yuan dan kliring di AS. Menteri Keuangan AS Jacob J. Lew dalam komentar sebelumnya tahun ini mengatakan negara perlu untuk lebih meliberalisasi kebijakan mata uangnya dan reformasi keuangan yang lengkap sebelum mendapatkan persetujuan IMF. Perubahan kebijakan ini membawa AS lebih dekat ke posisi Inggris dan Prancis. Dalam pidato di Shanghai, Menteri Keuangan Britania Raya George Osborne mengatakan dia ingin melihat yuan ditambahkan ke kelompok SDR sebagai mata uang yang menjadi semakin penting di pasar global dan memenuhi kriteria IMF yang ada. Sementara itu, Menteri Keuangan Prancis Michel Sapin mengatakan bahwa yuan perlu dimasukkan ke dalam SDR, meski China masih perlu untuk memenuhi persyaratan teknis IMF.
(https://iaminvestor.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/chinese-3-6t-070915.png) NY times
(https://iaminvestor.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/chinese-3-6t-070915b.png) By Neil Connor, in Beijing 1:28PM BST 21 Sep 2015 telegraph China’s (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/) central bank will start to issue short-term debt in London, the Chancellor announced on Monday at the end of high-level talks with Chinese leaders. In the first such move outside the country, George Osborne (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/) said the People’s Bank of China’s decision to issue renminbi bonds in London would “cement” the capital’s position as “China’s bridge into Western financial markets”. It was one of 53 agreements announced at the end of the UK-China Economic and Financial Dialogue which was being held in the Chinese capital, where Mr Osborne’s passion for China has been strongly evident. “I have strongly supported China’s efforts to increase the international use of the reminbi,” said Mr Osborne. “And make no doubt about it, I want the UK to be the natural Western hub for renminbi trading.” Monday’s announcement follows the UK government’s successful issuance of a sovereign renminbi bond (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/11151412/Treasury-hires-banks-torun-first-renminbi-bond-sale-by-a-Western-state.html) last October. The Treasury said that the PBoC would begin issuing debt denominated in China’s currency “in the near future”. “This is a major step in developing this market infrastructure. I believe it cements London as the pre-eminent location for RMB trading and Chinese investment in the West,” said Mr Osborne. The Chancellor said he wanted Britain to be “China’s best partner in the West”, as he spoke of his desire to see the Asian economic giant “take its place at the top table”. It came as Li Keqiang, China’s premier, reiterated that there was no basis for continued yuan depreciation, a month after the PBoC devalued the currency for the first time in modern history (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/11796479/Global-stock-markets-jolted-by-Chinas-historic-renminbi-devaluation.html). “We will actively nurture capital markets that are open, transparent and stable in the long term,” Mr Li was quoted as saying following a meeting with the Chancellor. The UK Government also unveiled plans to co-fund a £50m high-technology nuclear research centre with China, which will be based in the UK. The announcement followed news that the UK will provide £2bn of initial support for a new nuclear power station (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/energy/11878566/Hinkley-Pointnew-nuclear-plant-edges-closer-with-2-billion-Government-guarantee.html) that will be built at Hinkley point, in Somerset, with China’s backing. Mr Osborne said the agreement showed that Britain’s relationship with China was “built on lasting economic ties and growing cooperation”. He also US Congress to back quota and governance reforms of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which would see more power given to emerging economies like China. Congress’s opposition has resulted in the reforms being blocked for more than two years, angering Beijing who say the institution should reflect the current global economy. “I would urge the US Congress to ratify the IMF quota deal, which the House of Commons has ratified, which the US administration wants ratified,” Mr Osborne said. “In the end, I think it is in the interests of everyone that all of the major economies of the world feel adequately represented in international institutions like the IMF, and I think that is a view shared across all the Western governments.” the economist: IN THE 1950s Caoyang New Village, then on the outskirts of Shanghai, became one of China’s first model settlements for heroic socialist workers. Thousands moved into its plain, lookalike homes to man its state-owned textile mills. Today, rising from the once-modest streets is a gaudy building intended for a new kind of model citizen: consumers. Global Harbor (pictured) ranks among the world’s biggest shopping malls, its floor space equivalent to nearly 70 football fields. It blends ersatz European architecture with a distinctly Asian selection of stores. Beneath its vaulting glass domes and mock renaissance murals are a Hello Kitty café, a half-dozen noodle restaurants, jewellery shops dripping with gold and a theatre used for karaoke contests. It is only a slight exaggeration to say that China’s economic hopes rest on the faux-Corinthian columns of Global Harbor. With the country’s decades-old investment boom fast dwindling, it needs consumption to kick in as a new driver of growth. This rebalancing has been talked about for years, but has become more urgent as China’s industrial downturn has deepened. The nationwide frenzy of construction is abating, factories are saddled with overcapacity and the northern rustbelt is on the brink of recession. This week a manufacturing index recorded its lowest monthly reading in six years, and the seventh successive contraction. Amid the extreme pessimism about China’s economy in recent months, it is tempting to conclude that rebalancing has failed. Just look at the car market, usually a good shorthand for the health of consumer demand. Automobile sales fell by 3.4% in August compared with a year ago, the third monthly decline in a row. Yet other forms of consumption are accelerating. A property recovery has stoked demand for furniture, home electronics and renovation materials, with sales rising an average of 17% in August from a year earlier. From jewellery to traditional Chinese medicine, buying has picked up in recent months. Smartphone sales are down in volume terms but soaring by value, as shoppers move upmarket. Companies hit by the anti-corruption campaign under Xi Jinping, China’s president, are learning to prosper despite the new strictures. Distillers’ profits, which fell last year, have rebounded, pulled along by affordable brands for ordinary consumers rather than the exorbitantly priced bottles previously used as bribes for officials. Overall, China’s retail sales have increased by 10.5% in real terms this year, well ahead of economic growth (officially 7% but closer to 6% according to many analysts). There are, as ever, doubts about the reliability of China’s data, though in this case it may be that the retail figures are too low. Nicholas Lardy, an expert on Chinese statistics at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a think-tank, notes that retail numbers do not include services, a glaring omission since surveys show that services account for as much as two-fifths of China’s consumer spending. All this suggests that consumption is picking up at least some of the slack from the industrial downturn. The main reason for the resilience of the Chinese shopper is steady income growth. Wages for migrant workers rose by 10% in the second quarter compared with a year earlier, faster than the national average of 7%. Since low-income earners tend to spend more of their pay than the rich, that has given consumption an extra boost. One concern is whether this income growth can continue as Chinese industry struggles. Some factories are cutting jobs. But services account for a bigger share of the economy than industry, employ more people and are still growing well.
Structural factors are also at work. With China’s working-age population now shrinking, labour is becoming scarcer and employees command higher wages. China’s household savings rate of nearly 30%, among the world’s highest, is also beginning to fall as the population ages and the elderly draw down some of their accumulated wealth. Household consumption as a share of GDP fell to 35.9% in 2010, unusually low even by Asian standards, but has since been clawing its way up. A generational shift has helped. For older Chinese, the experience of deprivation in Mao’s day inhibits spending. At Global Harbor on a Sunday afternoon, those carrying shopping bags or queuing up at restaurants are overwhelmingly in their 20s and 30s. “Our parents are very careful but we want to have more of a balance in life,” says Lulu Yu. A legal assistant out with her boyfriend to watch a film, she is the picture of a fully grown consumer. Sporting fashionably tinted hair and contact lenses to make her eyes appear bigger, she dangles new high heels from her arm, an impulse purchase on the way to the cinema. Does this mean that Chinese shoppers are poised to become an engine of the world economy, like their fabled American counterparts? In some ways this has already happened. The number of Chinese tourists going abroad rose by 19.5% last year to 107m. What’s more, Chinese tourists spend more than others, snapping up goods that are cheaper abroad. All this makes China the world’s biggest source of tourism dollars (see chart). In South Korea and Thailand, the increase in spending by Chinese tourists in 2011-14 made up for the fall in exports to China over the same period, according to Capital Economics, a research firm.
But even if Chinese consumption remains healthy, it will not be a cure for ailing global growth. The commodity-exporting countries whose fortunes have hinged on China over the past decade stand mainly to lose, since they produce little in the way of consumer goods that appeal to Chinese buyers. Indeed, for the outside world as a whole, China’s shift from investment to consumption will subtract from demand, since making steel involves more imports than stocking malls like Global Harbor. The imported component of Chinese consumption is 11 percentage points lower than that of its investment, according to Goldman Sachs, a bank. A rebalancing of 1 trillion yuan ($157 billion) from investment to consumption would thus cut Chinese imports by about 110 billion yuan. This relative self-reliance is likely to increase with time. A study by Bain, a consultancy, found that out of 26 categories of cheap consumer goods, foreign brands lost market share in 18 last year, including skin cream, milk, fabric softener and toothpaste. In more sophisticated products, domestic companies are also elbowing into territory once dominated by international players. Chinese car brands have accounted for 41% of sales this year, a 3.5 percentage-point increase in market share. Growing consumption of services, whether cosmetic surgery or restaurant meals, only accentuates the home advantage, since most services are delivered locally. China’s consumer boom is real. But do not count on it to lift the global economy. From the print edition: Finance and economics (http://www.economist.com/printedition/2015-09-26) bloomberg: So it’s official — China’s stocks bubble has popped. (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-04/china-s-zhou-kept-repeating-the-bubble-burst-at-g-20-meeting) What about the debt bubble? Is that next? Well to answer that question, the best place to start is with the oft-overlooked other side of the ledger: assets. On that score, China’s balance sheet looks a lot rosier, suggesting prospects for “financial Armageddon” may be overblown, according to Bloomberg Intelligence economists Tom Orlik and Fielding Chen. As of 2013, total assets were about 900% of gross domestic product, versus debt of about 220 percent.
Assets have climbed since 2008 — the last time census data helped flesh out the picture.
(https://iaminvestor.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/utangchinavassets2008.png) (https://iaminvestor.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/utangchinavassets2013.png)
The data reflects China’s status as a nation of savers, at both the household and national level, and the rapid appreciation of asset prices over the last decade. Interestingly, real estate and bank deposits are the biggest household assets, accounting for 70 percent and 24 percent respectively in 2013, the analysis found. For readers unsettled by the plunge in China’s equities, take heart from this: stocks accounted for only 2 percent of total household assets. Still, strong assets don’t mean China is immune to a crisis, Orlik and Chen note. It’s likely that prices are inflated, and when confidence evaporates, everything from houses to stocks and land can be hard to sell. Meantime, balance sheets are fragile in sections of the corporate sector, such as mining and steel, they wrote. But the strong position does reduce the chances of a debt crisis in China, the analysts wrote. Case in point: with household debt about 17 percent of real estate assets, house prices would have to fall by 80 percent to push households underwater. Beijing, Sept 8, 2015 (AFP) Chinese exports fell again in August, official data showed Tuesday, but the drop was less than forecast and an improvement from the previous month, as investors worry about weakness in the world’s second-largest economy. The figures come as a growth slowdown in the Asian giant and planet’s biggest trader in goods has sent panic through global markets while Beijing tries to rebalance the economy to a sustainable model where expansion is predominantly driven by domestic consumer demand. But the transition is not proving easy, a situation exacerbated by weak demand in some of China’s major markets. Exports fell 5.5 percent year-on-year to $196.9 billion in August, Customs said on its website. The drop was significantly less than the median forecast of a 6.6 percent decline in a survey of economists by Bloomberg News, and also an improvement from July’s 8.3 percent fall. “Exports to the US and the Association of South-East Asian Nations continued to grow but shipments to the EU and Japan declined,” Customs said in a statement on its website. Imports fell 13.8 percent year-on-year to $136.6 billion, Customs said, attributing the decline to widespread commodity price falls. It was the 10th consecutive monthly fall in import values, and worse than the Bloomberg survey’s projection of a 7.9 percent decline. But Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics said the outlook was “brighter than many believe”. “The deeper contractions in headline trade growth will undoubtedly be viewed by some as further evidence of a deteriorating economic outlook for China,” he said in a reaction. “But we think the apparent weakness is misleading,” he added, citing a high comparative base from last year for exports and commodity price deflation weighing on imports. “Trade growth ought to recover over the coming quarters,” he said. Global stock markets have been roiled by worries over slowing growth in China, whose own exchanges have plummeted as a debt-fuelled bubble burst. Shanghai stocks were down 1.38 percent at the break Tuesday, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index dropping 42.37 points to 3,038.05. The trade surplus was $60.2 billion last month, Customs said, without giving the change in dollar terms. But it earlier said that measured in China’s yuan currency the surplus had risen 20.1 percent. BEIJING marketwatch — China’s foreign-exchange reserves fell to $3.56 trillion at the end of August, as the nation’s central bank intervened in the currency market to shore up the yuan and prevent capital flowing out of the world’s second largest economy. FX reserves were down by $93.9 billion in August from the holdings in July and it has been dropping for four consecutive months, according to data released on Monday by the People’s Bank of China. Based on central-bank data, it was the largest single monthly drop in reserves in absolute terms, and the biggest fall in more than three years on a percentage basis. “Capital outflow is a big concern,” said an official close to the central bank. That’s despite Beijing still having a big war chest of reserves to defend the yuan USDCNY, -0.0659% At stake is China’s glut of savings — deposits currently stand at $21 trillion, or almost twice the economy — which could stream out of the country if the yuan continues to weaken and authorities loosen their grip over cross-border capital flows. To stem the outflows that economists say have accelerated since Beijing unexpectedly devalued the yuan on Aug. 11, the Chinese central bank has been selling its dollar holdings to prevent the yuan from sliding further against the U.S. currency. Economists had estimated the resulting drop in China’s reserves in August at between $70 billion and $100 billion. Some analysts had expected outflows of as much as $150 billion. “Today’s data on China’s foreign exchange reserves suggest that the People’s Bank is not burning through its reserves as quickly as many had believed,” said Julian Evans-Prichard, China economist at Capital Economics. Evans-Prichard estimates that the PBOC sold about $110 billion last month in shoring up the yuan. He also calculates that around $130 billion worth of funds were moved out of China in August, up from his estimate of $75 billion in outflows in July. Part of the plunge in the official reserves was also due to “cang hui yu min,” a Chinese term frequently used by PBOC officials that means storing foreign-exchange reserves among the people. According to data from the central bank, dollar deposits held by Chinese citizens and businesses increased by more than $70 billion in the first half of this year and by $108 billion last year. Chinese officials hope that allowing Chinese households and companies to hold more dollar assets could help reduce the country’s big stockpile of reserves that are becoming increasingly challenging for the central bank to manage in a volatile global marketplace. The latest depreciation pressure on the yuan is partly Beijing’s own doing. For most of the past year, the Chinese central bank kept the yuan largely pegged to the dollar, effectively pushing up its value against the currencies of China’s trading partners and, in effect, hurting exporters. Then on Aug. 11, the central bank devalued the yuan’s official reference rate — around which the currency is allowed to trade — by nearly 2%, a move it said was intended to bring the yuan more in line with its peers and give market forces bigger sway in deciding its value. But the heavy selloff following the devaluation — triggered by concerns that Beijing would permit more weakening of the yuan to help spur growth — caught officials at the central bank somewhat off guard, according to people close to the PBOC. The central bank then resorted to two strategies to try to stem the yuan from falling further, according to the people. First, before the opening of daily trading, the central bank has been providing state-owned banks, who report yuan price levels to the central bank, with “window guidance” on a yuan price that meets the comfort levels of the PBOC. Secondly, the central bank has been directly intervening in the currency market by buying the yuan and selling dollars to prevent the Chinese currency from falling too much. Analysts at Société Générale have estimated that the PBOC could sell $280 billion of its foreign-exchange reserves in defending the yuan in the 12 months following the Aug. 11 devaluation. “The PBOC’s war chest is sizable, but not unlimited,” according to a Société Générale report. “We think that $1 trillion is the absolute maximum the PBOC can sell.” The intervention also has had the effect of draining yuan funds out of the market — threatening to cause a shortage of funds at Chinese banks. As a result, the central bank in late August decided to release more than $100 billion in funds for banks to lend. China’s central bank traditionally has intervened in the currency market by purchasing dollars from its exporters and simultaneously selling its yuan holdings — a move many Western officials have said has helped keep the yuan’s exchange rate artificially low. A cheaper yuan makes Chinese goods more competitive overseas. But since last year, the intervention has mostly involved the central bank purchasing yuan while selling its dollar holdings. China officially maintains a closed capital account, meaning it restricts the ability of individuals and businesses to move money across its borders. A Chinese individual isn’t allowed to take more than $50,000 a year out of the country. Chinese companies can exchange yuan for foreign currencies only for approved business purposes, such as paying for imports or approved foreign investments. But in reality, the closed system has become more porous and the rules are routinely ignored. Chinese companies are making more big-ticket foreign acquisitions, buying up natural resources and letting foreign profits accumulate overseas. Chinese citizens, for their part, are buying property in countries spanning Asia, Europe and America, sending their children to schools in the West and stocking up luxury goods in countries like Japan. A big source of recent outflows involves Chinese companies converting their yuan holdings into dollars and then using the funds to pay down their foreign debts, according to analysts. reuters: China has revised its annual economic growth rate in 2014 to 7.3 percent from the previously released figure of 7.4 percent, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday. Gross domestic product stood at 63.6 trillion yuan ($10.00 trillion) last year, down by 32.4 billion yuan from the initial estimate, the bureau said in a statement on its website. The bureau has revised down 2014 growth of the services sector by 0.3 percentage points to 7.8 percent, which helped drag down estimated GDP growth rate, it said. The primary sector – the agriculture sector – grew 4.1 percent last year, while growth of the secondary sector, which includes manufacturing and construction, rose 7.3 percent. After the revision, the services sector accounted for 48.1 percent of GDP last year, down from the previously announced 48.2 percent, the bureau said. The manufacturing and construction sector accounted for 42.7 percent of GDP while the farm sector accounted for 9.2 percent. The world’s second-largest economy grew 7 percent in the first half from a year earlier – in line with the government’s target for 2015, but recent downbeat data has raised the risk the government could miss the full-year growth target. (Reporting by Winni Zhou and Kevin Yao; Editing by Edmund Klamann and Eric) Volatility in China’s stock markets is nearing its end, a central bank official said, after Group of 20 finance chiefs flagged concerns about potential global spillovers. The Chinese government has intervened to prevent the “free fall” of the stock market even as it feels an adjustment is “normal,” Zhu Jun, Director-General in the People’s Bank of China’s international department said in an interview on Saturday in Ankara. The Shanghai Composite Index has tumbled 39 percent since June 12, when the gauge reached its highest level in more than seven years. China’s surprise decision to revalue the yuan as it tried to contain the market turmoil caused the currency to drop the most in 21 years last month, triggering exchange-rate declines elsewhere in the emerging world on concern that a weaker yuan will hurt countries exporting to China. “We think it’s pretty close to the end,” Zhu said, referring to the stock-market volatility. “To some extent the leverage in the market has been decreased substantially and we think there would be no systemic risk.” The Chinese delegation said its currency move wasn’t an attempt to grab exports from its international competitors and that explanation was accepted by the other nations, according to an international official who participated in the talks. “We think it is quite close to the equilibrium level and we think with time the pressure will be alleviated and the market sentiment will be improved,” said Zhu, referring to the yuan. Metrotvnews.com, Washington: Juru Bicara Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) mengaku tidak melihat gejolak pasar belakangan ini, sebagai alasan menyuarakan kekhawatiran tentang Tiongkok dan mengkaji ulang untuk memasukkan mata uangnya dalam keranjang “special drawing rights” (SDR). “Beberapa gejolak baru-baru ini yang kita lihat di pasar terjadi akibat dari beberapa hal seperti reaksi pasar terhadap langkah untuk mengadopsi nilai tukar yang lebih fleksibel di Tiongkok,” kata William Murray, wakil juru bicara IMF, pada konferensi pers reguler, seperti dilansir dari AFP, Jumat (4/9/2015). Dia mengulangi bahwa peninjauan SDR masih di jalurnya, dan IMF akan menyelesaikan pertimbangannya pada akhir tahun ini sesuai dengan aturan IMF. Langkah pemerintah Tiongkok untuk mengadopsi nilai tukar yang lebih fleksibel secara luas diterima seluruh IMF, kata Murray, yang menambahkan bahwa nilai tukar yang lebih fleksibel adalah apa yang Tiongkok butuhkan untuk mengejar dan bergerak ke arah itu. Dalam kaitan dengan sikap IMF tentang waktu untuk kenaikan suku bunga oleh Federal Reserve AS, Murray mengatakan bahwa Federal Reserve mampu untuk mempertahankan tingkat suku bunga rendah sampai ada tanda-tanda yang lebih nyata dari upah atau inflasi harga daripada bukti saat ini. IMF menyatakan pada awal Juni bahwa The Fed harus menunda kenaikan suku bunga pertama hingga semester pertama 2016. Namun, banyak pejabat Fed, termasuk Ketua Fed Janet Yellen, telah mengatakan pada banyak kesempatan bahwa pihaknya tepat untuk menaikkan suku bunga tahun ini. Pasar secara luas melihat September atau bahkan kemudian sebagai yang paling mungkin untuk waktu kenaikan suku bunga Fed. Risalah pertemuan kebijakan moneter The Fed terbaru menunjukkan bahwa para pejabat Fed tampak terpecah tentang waktu untuk kenaikan pertama dengan pertimbangan volatilitas pasar baru-baru ini dan pertumbuhan global yang lemah. The Fed telah mempertahankan suku bunga acuan jangka pendek mendekati nol sejak Desember 2008. AHL http://ekonomi.metrotvnews.com/read/2015/09/04/165775/imf-pasar-bergejolak-jangan-khawatirkan-tiongkok (http://ekonomi.metrotvnews.com/read/2015/09/04/165775/imf-pasarbergejolak-jangan-khawatirkan-tiongkok) Sumber : METROTVNEWS.COM
Will China’s economy avoid the doldrums? Ken Davies, President, Growing Capacity, Inc., formerly of the OECD Directorate for Financial and Enterprise Affairs* Will China’s growth slowdown last and what does it mean for the rest of us? The gradual US recovery is still not strong enough to pull up the rest of the world economy. Abenomics has not yet worked its magic in Japan, if it ever will. And Europe is clearly out for the count. So can China be the new engine of the world economy?
GDP growth in China has fallen from the 10%-plus rates of the past two decades. It decelerated from 10.4% in 2010 to 9.3% in 2011 and 7.8% in 2012, and edged lower to 7.7% in the first quarter of 2013. Both leading and lagging indicators in China suggest that growth is continuing to slow. The HSBC PMI (purchasing manager index) fell to 50.5 in April, showing that industry’s optimists now have the slightest margin over pessimists, portending a further possible slowdown in output. A sub-index measuring new export orders fell at the same time to 48.6, reflecting poor demand in OECD countries. Chinese GDP needs to grow by around 8.5% a year to employ school and college leavers, according to OECD calculations. The government’s top priority is always “social stability”, which also means political stability, which is–rightly–felt to be threatened if living standards drop, by income reductions, rapid inflation and/or high unemployment. So maintaining relatively high GDP growth is a paramount macroeconomic objective and policymakers get edgy when it threatens to dip below this rate, the low point of the business cycle that has characterised the Chinese economy since economic reforms were initiated in 1978. However, the Chinese authorities are constrained in their ability to boost the economy. In 2008-2009 they pumped in CNY4 trillion (about US$600 billion) through a fiscal stimulus programme to counter the effects of the global economic crisis. This exacerbated existing overinvestment and overheating, while also pushing up bad debts. Since then, there have been strenuous efforts to restrain inflation and prevent the property bubble from getting so big that it bursts. In September 2012 another CNY1 trillion was promised in the form of infrastructure projects to keep growth going. At the same time, the government is trying to rebalance the economy away from high investment in labour-intensive export manufacturing and towards greater private consumption, a larger services sector and more high-tech manufacturing–a policy which is set back each time a new stimulus programme is adopted that boosts fixed capital expenditure as a proportion of GDP. While there is a risk that growth will dip below recently experienced rates, don’t expect it to result in the “lost decades” that Japan has experienced, at least not yet. Japan’s growth rates of up to 12% a year in the 1960s were not sustainable because Japan was already a relatively developed country and did not have the massive hinterland to expand into that China has. As the OECD’s China surveys have shown, urbanisation alone will keep growth high over at least the next decade, provided there is no financial collapse. Also, expect the Chinese authorities to continue economic (though not political) reforms already initiated to enable some necessary economic restructuring, though this will continue to be a gradual, not an overnight, process. One example of this is the internationalisation of the Chinese currency, which has made great strides but still has further to go. The rest of the world will encourage such reforms in China because we all need Asia’s largest economy to remain healthy, buy our products and, increasingly, provide employmentgenerating investment. As the world’s factory, China is a huge exporter, but it is also a major importer. In 2012, China accounted for 17.4% of US merchandise exports. In the same year in Japan, worries of a slowdown in trade with China were voiced, when its share fell below 20% of Japan’s total trade for the first time since 2009 (although this was in part due to a boycott of Japanese products by some importers resulting from a dispute). For Europe, exports to China have been among the fastest-growing, though they are still not as high a proportion of total trade as in the US and Japan. China has itself suffered since 2008 from the fall in global demand for its exports and also from the plunge in world foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. The continuing weakness of Europe, its largest single export destination, is a source of some worry. China is also an increasingly important source of investment capital. In 2012, nonfinancial outward direct investment from China reached US$77.2 billion, and the government plan is for it to reach US$150 billion in 2015. Much of this is from large state-owned enterprises with cash reserves. If domestic growth falls far, outward investment could slow as enterprises are forced to focus on demand-boosting projects at home. While China will continue to expand as a market for OECD and emerging market exports and also as a source of capital to both in the next few years, prospects are less certain once the population hits a rapid ageing problem between 2020 and 2030 as a result of its one-child policy, which is costly demographically and economically, and morally questionable. As pointed out in this year’s report by the US Federal Reserve, labour force expansion in China will then hit a plateau. Output will grow thereafter only if productivity rises. Taking up slack in the education system will produce a better-trained work force, but there will also need to be major institutional reforms, for example in the field of intellectual property rights, to encourage innovation and enterprise. An important feature of economic restructuring is the enacting of measures to benefit the less well-off, including the ending of the outdated household registration (hukou) system and the granting of housing, health care and education benefits to migrant workers. The millions of men from the villages who build the skyscrapers and (mostly) women who go to work in the factories in coastal cities to make China’s exports should no longer be treated as second-class citizens. They are the ones whose achievements should be celebrated and rewarded. As well as raising labour productivity through education, this will also redistribute rises in income towards those with a higher propensity to consume, which will help increase the share of domestic consumption in national income. This rebalancing would be welcome not just for China, but for the world economy. And the efforts to protect the environment and increase recycling promoted by recent governments need to be stepped up so that Green GDP, which is what should be measured, can also grow. Many of these reforms have been offered to China by the OECD as policy options that would help generate a positive outlook. But they will happen only if China’s leaders can see their benefits and find effective means to implement them at all levels. If they act, then the future for China and the world economy will be brighter. The alternative is economic stagnation for this great country and a higher risk of political instability. And if China slipped towards the doldrums, then the tone of my future writing on the prospects for the world economy would be solemn indeed. * Ken Davies worked until 2010 as Head of Global Relations in the Investment Division at the OECD, where he focused on China and other Asian economies. In the 1990s he was Chief Economist, Asia, and Hong Kong Bureau Chief at the Economist Intelligence Unit. He is the founding head of a consultancy, http://www.growingcapacity.com (http://www.growingcapacity.com) The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone. – See more at: http://www.oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/3997/Will_China_92s_economy_avoid_the_doldrums_.html#sthash.OQtMTRVm.dpuf (http://www.oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/3997/Will_China_92s_economy_avoid_the_doldrums_.html#sthash.OQtMTRVm.dpuf) September 1, 2015 10:22 am JST
China Aug official PMI shrinks to 3-year low of 49.7, in line with forecasts BEIJING (Reuters) — Activity in China’s vast manufacturing sector contracted at its fastest pace in three years in August, an official survey showed on Tuesday, reinforcing concerns over the health of the world’s second-largest economy despite a flurry of government support measures. The official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.7 in August from the previous month’s reading of 50.0, in line with expectations of analysts polled by Reuters. A reading over 50 points signals an expansion in activity while one below that mark indicates an contraction on a monthly basis. Beijing has set an official economic growth target of 7 percent for this year, down from 7.4 percent in 2014 and the slowest pace in a quarter of a century. But some economists believe real growth levels may already be much lower, with cooling domestic and export demand, factory overcapacity and high local government debt levels depressing investment. A summer stock market crash and Beijing’s surprise devaluation of its currency in mid-August have heightened concerns about growing risks to the economy, roiling global financial markets in recent weeks. BEIJING, Aug. 29 (Xinhua) — The Chinese economy is operating within an appropriate range and China continues to lead the world in terms of growth, said Premier Li Keqiang.On the afternoon of August 28, Premier Li Keqiang chaired a State Council special meeting in Zhongnanhai to discuss developments in global economic and financial field and their implications for China and policy responses.Attending the meeting were leading officials of the State Council and ministers in charge of related economic and financial departments. They discussed the current situation and raised suggestions for the next step of work. After attentively listening to the discussions, Premier Li shared his observations.
He said that recent fluctuations on the international market have an impact on China, yet the Chinese economy is still operating within an appropriate range and China continues to lead the world in terms of growth. Li said, recent world market volatility has added new uncertainties to global economic recovery. The implications are growing for China’s financial market as well as imports and exports, adding new pressure on the Chinese economy. Li said, in the context of complex and changing situations abroad and deep-rooted problems at home, we pressed ahead with progress while ensuring stability with sustained efforts for structural reforms and targeted macro-regulation measures. These included, among others, cuts in the required reserve ratio, interest rates, taxes and fees and measures aimed at stabilizing the market, which are already paying off. Positive factors enabled by structural adjustments are topping up momentum for growth. The Chinese economy is operating within an appropriate range and China continues to lead the world in terms of growth. China has great potential for further development and is well capable of effectively managing risks and keeping them under control. This means China will continue to keep the initiative in hand even at times of complexity, he said. Li said that a host of new measures of reform and development are adopted to add new impetus to economic development and stabilize market expectations. On economic work in the coming months, Li said, we should not lose sight of the steady, positive trend and should stand firm in our conviction. At the same time, we should face challenges head on, be well-prepared and adaptive for uncertainties, and do whatever we can to maximize the positive factors and defuse the negative ones. The key is delivering results from decisions already made, with top priority given to development. We should fully mobilize governments at both the central and local levels while the proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy will stay in place. While conducting range-based macro-regulation, we must also be sensitive to subtle developments and be adaptive in policy implementation. To stabilize market expectations, make good policy preparations and make sure main targets for the year’s economic and social development are achieved, we will enact more targeted and responsive macro-regulation to offset downward economic pressure, more robust reform and innovation efforts to energize the market, and more effective delivery to secure the positive momentum for growth, he said. Li said, now that the traditional drivers for growth are not as strong, it is important to come up with new measures to bolster reform and opening up. It is necessary to provide more public goods and services, and encourage mass entrepreneurship and innovation to boost the growth momentum. New ways of investment and financing are needed to enhance investment capacity of local governments and businesses, delivery of public facilities and major projects, supporting development in central and western part of China and boosting effective investment. These measures will include ear-marked funds, local debt swap, corporate bonds, and adjustment of the proportions of required registered capital in fixed asset investment projects, said Li. He said in light of burgeoning consumer demands, new policies will be rolled out to unlock consumption potentials and improve living standards through means such as better express delivery and other logistics services. More global cooperation on production capacity will be encouraged as they will sure deliver more win-win results. Li said that the real economy will be upgraded for better quality and greater efficiency through faster depreciation rate in machinery, textile, light industry and automobiles sectors and more investment channeled towards technical transformation of traditional industries. Corporate R&D innovation will be encouraged by way of extra tax deduction for R&D costs and revision of the Administrative Measures for Determination of High and New Tech Enterprises. Wider application of green, energy-efficient and low-carbon products will be encouraged, and more sectors could plug in the “Internet+” initiative to foster new growth areas. As each sector becomes more vibrant, the stability of the overall economy will be built on a more solid basis. Li said there exists no basis for continued depreciation of the RMB and China is well positioned to defend the bottom line of preventing regional or systemic risks. Talking about the financial and capital market in China, Li said that financial stability bears on the overall economy. As an appropriate response to developments in the international financial market, China has recently improved the quotation regime of the RMB central parity. There exists no basis for continued depreciation of the RMB and the RMB exchange rate will stay basically stable at an adaptive and equilibrium level. It is important to promote financial reform and opening-up and keep a reasonable and sufficient level of liquidity to better serve the real economy. It is important to accelerate relevant institution-building, and foster an open, transparent capital market of long-term stability and ensure its sound development. Risk management needs to be improved to defend the bottom line of preventing regional or systemic risks, said Li. He urged holding steady against all adversities with undiverted focus on development. He emphasized that we must cope with the uncertainties and challenges with determination and wisdom. All regions and government departments must hold steady against all adversities with undiverted focus on development, and keen attention to economic issues and trends that are in the making. We should come up with more solid ideas, stay firm in holding dereliction of duty to count and form synergy in our work for tangible results. In so doing, we will be able to maintain medium-high speed of growth and achieve medium-high level of development of the Chinese economy.
These 5 Facts Explain Why China Is Still on the Rise Ian Bremmer @ianbremmer 3:41 PM ET Time.com
China has had a terrible past few weeks, but that won’t stop it’s growing dominance Stock market plunges, currency devaluations and warehouse fireballs out of China have dominated headlines this summer. But make no mistake—this is the opening of the “China Decade,” (http://time.com/4004397/the-china-decade/) the moment when the emerging giant’s international influence crosses a crucial threshold. These five facts explain why China’s rise is inevitable, even in the face of bad news—and why it won’t last forever. 1. Rough Summer Economic indicators have been pointing to a Chinese slowdown for some time—exports had already dropped 8 percent last month compared to the same time last year—but matters have come to a head these last couple of months. Between June 12 and July 8, the Shanghai stock market plummeted 32 percent. On July 27, the stock market fell 8.5 percent, its greatest singleday drop. To put that in perspective, “Black Tuesday,” which kicked off the Great Depression in 1929, saw the Dow plunge 12 percent. Markets under the thumb of autocratic regimes were thought to be immune to such wild swings; turns out they’re not. On August 11th, the Chinese government devalued the renminbi to kick-start their slowing economy. By the end of the week, the currency’s value had fallen by 4.4 percent, its biggest drop in 20 years. (The New York Times (a) (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/18/business/international/chinas-devaluation-of-its-currency-was-a-call-to-action.html?_r=0), CNN Money (http://money.cnn.com/2015/07/27/investing/china-stock-market/index.html), The New York Times (b) (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2015/08/11/business/international/china-yuandevaluation-in-exports-economy-stock-market.html), TIME (http://content.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1854569,00.html)) 2. China’s Rise Yes, growth is slowing, but to levels enviable in any developed country. In the mean time, China’s march to no. 1 continues. In 2014, China’s total GDP overtook the US’s when measured by purchasing power parity. Using this metric, China accounted for 16.32 percent of world GDP in 2014, eclipsing the US’s 16.14 percent. More impressive than the size of China’s economy is the speed with which it’s grown. Back in 2000, Chinese imports and exports accounted for 3 percent of all global goods traded. By 2014, that figure had jumped to more than 10 percent. In 2006, the U.S. was a larger trade partner than China for 127 countries. China was the larger partner for just 70. Today, those numbers have reversed: 124 countries trade more with China than with the United States. (International Monetary Fund (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/weodata/weorept.aspx? sy=2014&ey=2014&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=924%2C111&s=PPPSH&grp=0&a=&pr.x=68&pr.y=2), Financial Times (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7c2dbd7079a6-11e3-b381-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3iiveydBt), Russia Today (http://rt.com/usa/china-us-trade-partner-169/)) 3. China’s Resilience And despite recent turmoil, China’s economy has staying power. That’s in part because China’s leadership has spent decades building its foreign exchange reserves, which today are valued at $3.7 trillion. That’s by far the world’s biggest rainy day fund. More important than its money buffer is China’s consolidated political leadership under Xi Jinping. China’s president has presided over an extensive anti-corruption campaign that has already seen 414,000 officials disciplined and another 200,000 indicted. In the process, Xi has probably rebuilt some of the party’s lost credibility with China’s people. He has definitely sidelined current and potential opponents of his reform program—and of his rule. And the lack of backlash illustrates just how strong his political control really is. (Wall Street Journal (http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2015/07/15/behind-chinas-dwindling-forex-reserves-a-plan-to-boost-the-yuan/), The Atlantic (http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2015/04/xi-jinping-china-corruption-political-culture/389787/)) 4. Spreading Wealth (and Influence) Consolidated leadership also enables Beijing to pursue its comprehensive global strategy. China has spent the last two decades tactically investing around the world. Chinese investments in Africa jumped from $7 billion in 2008 to $26 billion in 2013, helping the continent build desperately-needed roads, rails and ports. In Latin America, China has already pledged to invest $250 billion over the coming decade, giving Beijing a solid foothold in the West. This extends China’s influence well beyond East Asia, helps China secure long-term supplies of the commodities it needs to continue to power its economy, creates jobs for Chinese workers, and helps China open new markets for its excess supplies of industrial products. China also wants to use its money to reshape the world’s financial architecture. To that end, Beijing just launched the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to rival the Washington-based IMF and World Bank. Given that 57 countries have signed up as founding members, some of them US allies who chose to ignore US objections, it’s well on its way. With initiatives like the AIIB, China will continue funding infrastructure projects—and building goodwill—for years to come. (Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com/professional/blog/chinas-road-to-africa-lifts-investment-adds-debt-risk/), BBC (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-33424532), Wall Street Journal (http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-china-plans-to-run-aiib-leaner-with-veto-1433764079)) 5. Problems Ahead All that said, China’s longer-term challenges are becoming impossible to ignore. By 2050, it’s estimated that China’s work force will have shrunk by 17 percent. Blame demographics—back in 1980, the median age in China was 22.1 years; in 2013, 35.4, and by 2050 it will rise to 46.3. An aging labor force is like an aging sports star: both want more money, and both are nowhere near as productive as they once were. Pollution continues to take its toll—less than 1 percent of China’s 500 cities meet WHO air quality standards. China’s environment ministry concedes that nearly 2/3 of underground water and 1/3 of surface water is “unfit for human contact.” A new study estimated that 4,000 Chinese die prematurely each day thanks to air pollution. As China’s masses join a growing middle class, the leadership will have to deal with stronger public demand for clean air and water. Beijing better deliver if it wants to keep the peace, and its regime, intact. And the public will have the means to make its demands known: There are already 650 million Chinese people online, and censorship, however sophisticated, can never fully control the flow of ideas and information in a social media market of that scale—witness the information leaking out on the Tianjin blast. China’s leaders know they must care about public opinion. (Bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-23/mexico-to-overtake-russia-by-2050-as-u-s-slides), UN Economic and Social Affairs (http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2012_HIGHLIGHTS.pdf), Council on Foreign Relations (http://www.cfr.org/china/chinas-environmental-crisis/p12608), Russia Today (http://www.rt.com/news/265186-china-water-air-pollution/), CNN (http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/03/world/china-internet-growth-2014/)) China’s growing strength threatens the established world order, but its domestic vulnerabilities will have global repercussions, as well. It’s still too early to tell which of the two will be more destabilizing. Either way, the world will be shaped by Beijing’s successes and its failures. Welcome to the China Decade (http://time.com/4004397/the-china-decade/). RIMINI, Italy: China’s economic slowdown and a sharp fall in its stock market herald not a crisis but a “necessary” adjustment for the world’s second biggest economy, a senior International Monetary Fund official said on Saturday. Fresh evidence of easing growth in China hammered global stock markets on Friday, driving Wall Street to its steepest one-day drop in nearly four years. “Monetary policies have been very expansive in recent years and an adjustment is necessary,” said Carlo Cottarelli, an IMF executive director representing countries such as Italy and Greece on its board. “It’s totally premature to speak of a crisis in China,” he told a press conference. He reiterated an IMF forecast for a 6.8 percent expansion in the Chinese economy this year, below the 7.4 percent growth achieved in 2014. “China’s real economy is slowing but it’s perfectly natural that this should happen … What happened in recent days is a shock on financial markets which is natural,” he added. China’s stock markets have fallen more than 30 percent since mid-year. Following a slew of poor economic data, Beijing devalued the yuan in a surprise move last week. Cottarelli said the IMF would discuss in coming months with Chinese authorities their decision to weaken the currency. China is eager for the yuan to join the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights basket of currencies. But the fund is considering extending the current SDR basket by nine months until September 30, 2016. Turning to Greece, which is heading to an early election in September, Cottarelli said the IMF would decide in two or three months whether to join the latest international rescue efforts. The IMF deems Greece’s debt unsustainable and has called for debt relief as a condition to participate in a third bailout. “The debt sustainability assessment will take place after the launch of the program (agreed with creditors) in two or three months. The IMF will then be able to evaluate whether to intervene,” he said. (Reporting by Paolo Biondi, writing by Valentina Za; Editing by Gareth Jones) – Reuters BEIJING, Aug. 7 (Xinhua) — China may broaden the daily trading band of renminbi (RMB), or the yuan, against the U.S. dollar soon, a further step in its exchange rate reform, an economist predicted Friday. The range is likely to be expanded to 3 percent from the existing 2 percent in the third quarter, Zhu Haibin, chief economist of J.P. Morgan China, said in a research note. The State Council, China’s Cabinet, announced on July 24 that it will broaden the RMB daily trading band but did not disclose any more details. Chinese banks can exchange yuan on the foreign exchange spot market at 2 percent above or below the central parity rate against the dollar announced by the China Foreign Exchange Trading System each trading day. The RMB exchange rate on the spot market may “depreciate modestly in the short term after the band widening and it will hover around 6.30 against the dollar by the end of this year,” Zhu predicted. The central parity rate of the RMB stood at 6.1174 against the U.S. dollar Friday, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trading System. China has taken a gradual and steady pace in raising its currency’s daily trading limit, from 0.3 percent in 1994 to 0.5 percent in 2007 and 1 percent in 2012 to the latest 2 percent in 2014. BEIJING, Aug. 8 (Xinhuanet) –Capital outflows surge as worries about weak economic growth increase, says central bank China’s foreign exchange reserves slipped to a two-year low by the end of July, the People’s Bank of China, the central bank, said on Friday, implying more capital outflows amid expectations of a fragile economic rebound and a stronger dollar. The nation’s reserves dropped to 3.65 trillion U.S.dollars last month, down by 42.5 billion U.S.dollars from the level in June, the sharpest monthly decline since March, according to PBOC data. July’s decrease marks the third consecutive month that the forex reserves have fallen. It has dropped by 343 billion U.S.dollars from a historic high of 3.99 trillion U.S.dollars in June 2014. Despite the fall, China still has the largest foreign exchange reserves in the world. Worries about weak economic growth in the second half of the year have triggered capital outflows, said Zeng Gang, a researcher covering the banking industry at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. “Market expectations of an appreciation in the US dollar have also fueled capital outflows,” he said. Earlier data showed that in the second quarter, the country’s foreign exchange reserves fell by 36.2 billion U.S.dollars , the fourth consecutive quarter of decline. “It is a reasonable and acceptable adjustment so far, which will help reverse the long-term expansion of the large foreign exchange reserves, without any risks,” said Zeng. Economists expect a slightly weaker GDP (http://search.news.cn/language/search.jspa?id=en&t=1&t1=0&ss=&ct=&n1=GDP&x=33&y=11) growth in the third quarter, compared with the 7 percent growth in the second quarter, characterized by stable industrial activity and infrastructure investment, but dragged by softening financial activity and the downtrend in property construction. To supplement the liquidity outflows, economists expect the central bank to further reduce the amount of cash that is required to be held as reserves by financial institutions. Zhu Haibin, chief economist in China with JPMorgan Chase & Co, said: “For policymakers, it is important to monitor the underlying factors that have driven capital flow dynamics, especially as China is planning to push forward capital account liberalization and allow its currency (the yuan) to play a bigger role in the global financial market.” The International Monetary Fund reiterated on Wednesday that the executive board will decide whether the yuan will be included in its Special Drawing Rights basket at the end of the year, pushing forward China’s capital account opening and exchange rate reforms. The PBOC started to report its foreign exchange reserves on a monthly basis recently, shifting from a quarterly basis, to adopt the IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standard asking for more transparent information. The central bank said in a separate statement on Friday that it will continue to monitor cross-border capital flows closely to curb “abnormal” flows of foreign exchange. It also pledged more financial reforms to prevent systemic risks. China’s gold reserves declined to 59.24 billion U.S.dollars by the end of July, compared with 62.4 billion U.S.dollars at the end of June, the PBOC said. Total gold reserves stood at 1,658 tons at the end of June, up 57 percent from the last time it adjusted the reserve figures more than six years ago. (Source: China Daily) Washington, Aug 12, 2015 (AFP) The International Monetary Fund welcomed Beijing’s surprise devaluation of the country’s currency, saying it will allow market forces to play a greater role in the nation. China cut the yuan’s value against the dollar for a second day Wednesday, sending ripples through financial markets and raising fears that the currency could fall further. The IMF said the step could be a boon in the long run. “The new mechanism for determining the central parity of the renminbi (yuan) announced by the PBC (People’s Bank of China) appears a welcome step as it should allow market forces to have a greater role in determining the exchange rate,” an IMF spokesman said in a statement. “Greater exchange rate flexibility is important for China as it strives to give market forces a decisive role in the economy and is rapidly integrating into global financial markets,” the statement said, adding that China should achieve a floating exchange rate within two to three years. After Tuesday’s devaluation Chinese authorities said they were seeking to push market reforms in a one-time move. Officials will now use the previous day’s close, foreign exchange demand and supply and the rates of other major currencies to decide the daily rate around which the Chinese currency can trade. China has been criticized by some for keeping its currency undervalued to gain a trade advantage for its exports. Shanghai, Aug 11, 2015 (AFP) China’s central bank on Tuesday devalued its yuan currency by nearly two percent against the US dollar, as authorities seek to push market reforms and bolster the world’s second-largest economy. A cheaper yuan will make Chinese exports cheaper potentially boosting overseas sales, among the main drivers of growth during the nation’s remarkable rise over the past three decades, but which have recently shown signs of weakening. The surprise move marked the biggest drop since China reformed its currency system in 2005 by unpegging the yuan — also known as the renminbi (RMB) — from the greenback. But analysts said the devaluation could prompt an angry reaction from the US, which has consistently argued that the yuan is undervalued, and put downward pressure on other Asian currencies. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set its daily “reference rate” for the yuan at 6.2298 to $1, compared with 6.1162 yuan on Monday, effectively 1.86 percent lower. China allows the yuan to vary by up to two percent from the central rate each day. Until now Chinese officials said they based the fixing on a poll of market-makers, but the PBoC said Tuesday they will now also take into account the previous day’s close and other factors. Beijing has so far kept a tight grip on the currency’s value on fears major swings and volatile capital flows could raise financial risks and reduce its control over the economy. That has made the yuan far more stable than other major global currencies and a two percent move in its value is dramatic: before Tuesday’s announcement it had traded within a roughly 0.4 percent band for four months, which one analyst described as a “straight line”. – ‘Major step’ – But China is also seeking to reform its yuan policy in an effort to have it included in the International Monetary Fund’s basket of “special drawing rights” (SDR) reserve currencies. Its controls have been a stumbling block in gaining admittance to the select group, now comprised of the US dollar, Europe’s euro, British pound and Japanese yen. The Washington-based IMF said this month that “significant work” still needed to be done for the yuan to be considered before its next review in November. “A reasonable adjustment of the RMB’s value is good for China’s exports and also good for the RMB to be admitted to the SDR,” Liu Dongmin, director of international finance research office at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told AFP. “But most importantly, this marks key progress for RMB exchange rate reform since 2005 and a major step for RMB marketisation,” he said. Even so, the US has long argued the yuan has been kept “significantly undervalued” to help Chinese exporters, and Shanghai Finance University associate professor Qin Huanmei said Washington was likely to object to the depreciation. “The value drop of yuan against the US dollar will put pressure on the US because it wants the yuan to appreciate, which would help with its trade,” she told AFP. The PBoC described the sharply lower rate as a one-off move, though it did not use the term devaluation, saying the weakening in the currency reflected the new method of calculating the daily price. The bank will now “comprehensively consider the supply and demand of foreign exchange” as well the latest international market rates for foreign currencies to set the fixing, according to a statement. – Caution seen – Despite the reform, analysts said the government’s long-promised goal of free currency convertibility probably remained distant. “We think it unlikely that the Chinese government will let only market momentum drive the RMB exchange rate from now on, as that can be quite destabilising,” Wang Tao, head of China economic research at UBS, said in a research report. She forecast the yuan would weaken to around 6.5 to the greenback by the end of the year. On Tuesday afternoon, the yuan was quoted at 6.3195 to the dollar, down sharply from Monday’s close of 6.2096, according to the operator of the national foreign exchange market. The move sent ripples through Asia’s currency markets, sending the Australian dollar — often seen as a proxy for the yuan — tumbling more than one percent. The greenback also gained against the South Korean won, Indian rupee, and Japanese yen. Analysts said Customs data released over the weekend showing July exports plunged 8.3 percent from a year earlier — deepening a trade slump and spelling more worry for the economy — supported the case for a lower yuan, which they said was overdue. China’s gross domestic product expanded 7.4 percent in 2014 — its weakest pace since 1990 — and has slowed further this year, growing 7.0 percent in both the first two quarters, in-line with the government’s annual 2015 target. The benchmark Shanghai stock index closed nearly flat on Tuesday, as investors mulled the devaluation’s impact. bxs/slb/cah
UBS Tokyo, Aug 11, 2015 (AFP) Asia’s currencies came under pressure on Tuesday after China unexpectedly devalued its yuan currency in the face of weakening growth, driving the dollar higher. China’s central bank announced a near two percent drop in the value of its yuan against the US dollar, the biggest fall since the currency was unpegged from the greenback in 2005. The surprise move sent ripples through Asia’s currency markets, sending the Australian dollar — often seen as a proxy for the yuan — tumbling 1.16 percent to 73.28 US cents. The US dollar also gained against the South Korean won and Indian rupee, but was marginally down against the Japanese yen, trading at 124.67 compared with 124.72 in New York on Monday. The People’s Bank of China’s announcement “looks to be a move to a more open market policy,” Stephen Innes, a senior trader at OANDA, told Bloomberg News. “Traders are looking for US dollar strength across the Asia region and pressure on all local currencies.” The euro dipped after news that Greece has reached an agreement with its creditors on fiscal targets, leaving it on course for a bailout deal to avert an August 20 default. The single currency changed hands at $1.0985 and 136.91 yen against $1.1019 and 137.31 yen. The dollar fell overnight in New York against the euro as Fed officials gave fresh clues about the timing of the central bank’s rate hike. After last Friday’s solid US jobs report for July, many analysts saw support for the Fed to raise its zero-level benchmark federal funds rate in September. But Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer tempered expectations on Monday when he said low inflation remains a concern for the world’s biggest economy. Elsewhere, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart appeared to raise the prospect for a hike sooner rather than later. “We are getting closer and closer to what feels like a healed state of the economy,” Lockhart said in prepared remarks to the Atlanta Press Club. “I think the point of liftoff is close,” he said. TOKYO nikkei — The collapse of China’s stock bubble and its continued economic slowdown have other countries bracing for impact. South Korea, which relies heavily on the world’s No. 2 economy, could see the worst of the spillover if the Chinese stock turmoil spreads to real estate, shadow banking and other sectors. That was the warning put forth recently by JoongAng Ilbo, a South Korean daily. The paper noted that in the first half of 2015, 25.5% of all South Korean exports went to China — double the ratio of shipments to the U.S. South Korean investments in Chinese stocks amounted to 7.4 trillion won ($6.42 billion), accounting for 40% of total overseas stock investments. The International Monetary Fund estimates that every 1-percentage-point drop in Chinese real growth pulls down the aggregate growth of other Asian economies by 0.3 of a point the following year. Economies outside the region take a 0.15-point hit. South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand and Taiwan will be affected more seriously than others because they rely on exports of key goods to China, according to the IMF. The list includes machinery and transport equipment from South Korea and Malaysia; electronic parts from Taiwan; and raw materials from Thailand. The fund expects China’s slowdown to have a limited impact on Japan and India. Ironically, Japan’s struggles to expand its presence in Chinese import markets could shield it from heavy damage. Bitter success? The 2015 White Paper on International Economy and Trade, released by Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, analyzes the country’s exports to China.
The paper shows that while Japan accounts for 10-20% of Chinese imports, by value, in eight major sectors, its shares are relatively low in markets seeing the most import growth. Germany, meanwhile, has been expanding its presence in high-growth sectors. German companies have captured large shares of markets such as passenger cars, railway parts, trucks, medical equipment and autoparts. YOICHI TAKITA, Nikkei senior staff writer The paper turns an envious look at Germany’s advances in China, which have brought significant benefits to its industry. But joy and sorrow are inseparable, as an old saying goes. As the Chinese economy loses steam, gains could become losses.
Countries rich in natural resources such as crude oil, iron ore and copper are also likely to feel the cold wind from China. The Thomson Reuters/Core Commodity CRB Index, which provides an overall look at commodities prices, has already fallen close to its lowest level since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. This is a worrying sign for Brazil, Russia, Indonesia and South Africa as well as Australia. Since Japan imports almost all of its energy and other resources, it stands to benefit from declining commodity prices. Still, the Japanese economy would be affected if the world suffers a second wave of economic slowdowns after this autumn. A major concern is that China, unable to cope with plunging domestic demand, may begin seeking to boost exports by steering the yuan lower. A global race to devalue currencies amid economic weakness is a nightmare scenario for Japan. China still has fiscal and financial leeway to goose domestic demand. Beijing, having witnessed Japan’s failures, ought to know what to do. JAKARTA. Bursa China dilaporkan menguat 0,07% atau naik 2,63 poin ke posisi 3.759,18 pada perdagangan pagi ini, Rabu (5/8/2015), pukul 09:32 WIB.Penguatan Indeks Shanghai Composite tersebut terjadi dalam dua hari terakhir sebagaimana dikutip Bloomberg, Rabu (5/8/2015).Penguatan harga saham itu terjadi setelah dari 1.114 perusahaan yang terdaftar di papan bursa tersebut, terdapat 599 saham perushaan yang bergerak naik dan 362 saham melemah. Sedangkan 153 saham perusahaan lainnya mengalami stagnan.Harga saham perusahaan China terus menanjak setelah para pengambil kebijakan meningkatkan upaya mereka menstabilkan pasar. Regulator China melarang aksi jual jangka pendek sebagai langkah terbaru untuk mendongkrak harga saham.Kebijakan itu juga mencegah manipulasi pasar setelah terjadi penjualan saham dengan nilai US$4 triliun. http://market.bisnis.com/read/20150805/7/459471/bursa-china-indeks-shanghai-kembali-naik-sentimen-kebijakan-regulator-berlanjut (http://market.bisnis.com/read/20150805/7/459471/bursachina-indeks-shanghai-kembali-naik-sentimen-kebijakan-regulator-berlanjut) Sumber : BISNIS.COM Tuesday, July 7, 2015, 17:11
Economy to revive in second half: NBS By Xinhua (https://iaminvestor.files.wordpress.com/2015/08/ekonomi-china-h1-2015.jpg) BEIJING – China’s economy is likely to stabilize and recover in the latter half of the year as data suggest economic fundamentals are improving, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Monday. Multiple economic indicators suggest the worst is over and positive changes are emerging due to pro-growth and reform policies, the NBS said. The announcement followed Premier Li Keqiang’s reassurance earlier this month that continued macroeconomic regulations and a campaign to promote innovation and entrepreneurship would ensure the country is able to meet this year’s growth target. The reaffirmation of confidence came ahead of the release of GDP data for the second quarter on July 15, which analysts predict will slip below 7 percent as the effects of China’s pro-growth policies have yet to spread. UBS chief China economist Wang Tao estimated GDP growth will ease to 6.9 percent in the second quarter as the real economy remains sluggish. But as the effects of the country’s expansionary fiscal policy and monetary easing spread, growth is expected to tick up in the third or fourth quarter. In addition to four interest rate cuts since November, China has decided to remove its 75percent loan-to-deposit ratio requirement to give banks more freedom to lend. The government has also accelerated fiscal spending with the approval of a package of major infrastructure projects and an ambitious plan to speed up improvement of run-down urban areas. The policies have already produced some changes. Earlier data showed China’s manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory for three straight months while growth in the services sector quickened, suggesting continued economic improvement. Growth of high-tech and consumer products manufacturing continued to beat overall manufacturing, signaling success in economic restructuring, while high energy-consuming industries saw slower growth, according to the data. The property sector is also warming up. The sector’s fortune is considered crucial to the broader economy as it affects a wide range of industries, including steel and cement. The average price per square meter in a sample of 100 cities rose 0.56 percent month on month to 10,628 yuan (US1,739) in June, according to a survey by the China Index Academy (CIA), an independent research institute. The gain accelerated from 0.45 percent in May, which was the first rise since January. Other recovery signs include an increase in power consumption, faster credit growth and higher prices of some raw materials. “This shows that market demand is bottoming out, and China’s economic growth will see mild recovery in the latter half to put it on track to meet this year’s growth target of around 7 percent, ” noted Lian Ping, chief economist at the Bank of Communications. While recognizing the improving trend, NBS spokesman Sheng Laiyuan cautioned that some improvements are still fragile and tentative. He said the country should remain watchful of downward pressure and make stronger efforts to achieve the annual growth target of around 7 percent for this year. Tuesday, August 4, 2015, 15:20
China stocks rebound as short-selling curbs kick in By Xinhua BEIJING – Chinese shares rebounded on Tuesday as the government issued new rules effective Tuesday to control short selling activities in an attempt to stabilize the market. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index surging 3.69 percent to close at 3,756.54 points. The smaller Shenzhen Component Index gained 4.52 percent to close at 12,711.56 points. The ChiNext Index, tracking China’s Nasdaq-style board of growth enterprises, soared 6.12 percent to end at 2,546.16 points. Investors are no longer able to borrow shares and cover the short position on the same trading day, according to statements released by the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges after Monday’s trading session. Instead, investors must wait for the next trading day to pay back the shares they borrowed, adding to the uncertainty of the profits investors may lock in. In short selling, speculators sell shares borrowed from lenders and buy back the stocks to cover the loan at a later time in the hope that share prices will fall during the period so they can earn the difference. The so-called T+1 rule is aimed at avoiding market volatility caused by speculative same-day trading, according to the Shanghai stock exchange. The new rule came after a chain of actions aimed at stabilizing the stock market, including freezing accounts with trading irregularities and curbing automated program trading by the regulators. On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened 0.03 percent lower at 3,621.86 points. The Shenzhen Component Index opened 0.01 percent higher at 12,163.12. The ChiNext Index, tracking China’s NASDAQ-style board of growth enterprises, opened 0.12 percent lower at 2,396.41 points. BEIJING china daily -The country’s economy is stabilizing and recovering, but still facing significant downward pressure, Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said on Wednesday. Speaking at a national financial work conference, Lou said the ministry will continue to ensure funds to the construction of major projects to offer fiscal support, while cutting tax and administrative fees to lower companies’ costs. China’s economy posted a better-than-expected growth of 7 percent in the second quarter of the year. The growth, though unchanged from the first quarter, was its lowest level since the global financial crisis. Lou said the ministry will continue to promote a public-private partnership (PPP) model for investment, regulate local government debt and promote “market-oriented transformation” of local government financing vehicles in order to turn these local government-backed investment bodies into independent entities. He also urged further advances in the country’s tax reforms, which includes replacing turnover tax with value-added tax and implementing consumption tax and resource tax reforms. Shanghai, Aug 3, 2015 (AFP) Shanghai stocks closed down 1.11 percent on Monday on worries about the sluggish economy after a key gauge of manufacturing plunged to a two-year low in July, dealers said. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index dropped 40.82 points to 3,622.91 on turnover of 446.0 billion ($72.9 billion). The Shenzhen Composite Index, which tracks stocks on China’s second exchange, sank 2.72 percent, or 57.50 points, to 2,053.12 on turnover of 402.3 billion yuan. The final reading of Caixin’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which tracks activity in factories and workshops, came in at 47.8 in July, the weakest reading since 47.7 in July 2013. “The recent economic data have made investors believe that the market isn’t supported by earnings or fundamentals, particularly when the market is in a downward cycle,” Wang Zheng, Shanghai-based chief investment officer at Jingxi Investment Management, told Bloomberg News. China has announced a series of measures, including a crackdown on short-selling, a ban on major shareholders selling stocks and suspension of new share offerings, to arrest a market rout since July. “There are signs of stabilisation in the short term as the trading volume decreases. But in the mid-term, there are still some looming problems,” Shen Zhengyang, an analyst at Northeast Securities, told AFP. “The economy hasn’t shown signs of recovery, making stock prices still expensive as a whole.” Aviation shares led the losses in Shanghai. China Avionics Systems slumped by its 10 percent daily limit to 29.14 yuan and Aerospace Communications Holdings also tumbled 10 percent to 25.54 yuan. Technology stocks lost ground in Shenzhen. Hand Enterprise Solutions plunged by its 10 percent daily limit to 16.37 yuan and SZZT Electronics slumped by 10 percent to 19.24 yuan. The International Monetary Fund (IMF), the most prestigious international financial institution in the world, has rated China’s ranking to number one economic superpower in the world — surpassing those of the United States based upon the purchasing power parity of GDP indicator (gross domestic product). IMF has asserted that China produced 17% of the world gross domestic product (GDP) in 2014 exceeding U.SA’s GDP of world’s 16% (1). China’s economic growth performance over the last 30 years has impressed development economists who took the position that China will remain in the low/middle income group of nations permanently due to its very large population — approximately 1.2+ billion in 2015. Moreover, China’s performance has inspired other low and middle income countries to emulate China’s approach and engage in growthmanship including many middle income countries of Latin America such as Brazil, Argentina, Columbia and India which also has a large population like China. It is most likely that China will maintain its lead in economic ranking of GDP in the foreseeable future largely due to catch-up of its per capita income which is rising annually at 8%-10%. (2) Although China’s GDP has converged and surpassed Untired States GDP, its per capita GDP is still below the U.S. and first world. However, China’s rapid GDP growth coupled with low fertility rate (number of children per women) will boost China’s per capita income to high marginal annual growth paving the way for its convergence, in less than two decades, to the level of high income countries as estimated by USC researchers (3). It follows that the GDP gap between China and other countries will further widen in the future. Moreover, the U.S. carries a heavy military burden which does not feedback to economic growth while China has avoided heavy military burden. Instead in 2014, China inaugurated a major international economic development program by financing infrastructure projects in the historical silk route countries. It is engaged in financing economic infrastructure projects in the silk route countries with positive ROI for China and the recipient countries. (4) The genesis of China’s remarkable upswing in a relatively short span of time goes back more than five decades to 1948 when China emerged an independent state after World War II upon the defeat of Japan by the United States. China’s leadership was bifurcated between Chairman Mao Zedong’s communist party and Chiang Kai-shek’s Kuomintang regime raising concern of a pending civil war. (5) To China’s good fortune, the two leaders’ views coalesced and a coalition government was formed. The absence of a civil war and the peaceful political transition of leadership largely explains the remarkable ascent of China’s political and economic fortunes. China’s political system is not monolithic, or colossal, it has worked under a seven-member Politburo Standing Committee of party congress. Political leadership is elected every five years.
The second major influence that explains China’s good fortune is its decision to open up to the free world and get out of the Soviet sphere of influence. It was prompted in the 1960s when President Richard M. Nixon sought reproachment with China and sent his Secretary of State Henry Kissinger to China who arranged a personal visit by President Nixon with China’s leadership. The approach turned out to be very successful. It got China out of the sphere of Soviet Union’s influence, paved the way for China to open up to the Western world, and the rest of the world, and eventually modify its system of political economy to a very unique system of private enterprise market economy and a one-party political system. This unique approach has turned out to be successful both politically and economically for China, and it has benefitted the rest of the world in trade, commerce and international peace. In 2014, President Barrack Obama initiated the exchange of 100,000 American students to study in China further cementing cultural and education relations between the two countries. Following is a synopsis of China’s economic, political and social framework that augur well for its continued development and leadership, and provide a blueprint for other nations to emulate. A. LEADERSHIP The transition of leadership in China has been remarkably peaceful and smooth. As can be seen Deng Xiao Ping adopted market economy in December 1978. Deng Xiaoping (1978-1987) was instrumental and responsible for modernization and reform. Premier Zhu RongJi (1988-2003) paved the way for China’s entry into World Trade Organization (WTO). President Jiang Zemin (1993-2003), theory of promoting business and entrepreneurial class into the country’s one-party system, helped China’s economic expansion. Current president Xi Jinping launched the economic development of the silk route countries, clamped down on corruption by rooting out high party members and military brass, has launched a rural development program to close distributional and development gaps, and promote social equity. The economic innovation in China started in the early eighties beginning with Deng Xiaoping through Hujintao implementing innovative economic policies which lifted China’s sluggish economy by introducing private ownership, market economy, and less governmental control contributing to robust economic performance. A succession of leadership in China including president Hu Jinping and follow-up by the current president Xi Jinping’s flexible and innovative economic policy took advantage of globalization and export orientation, attracting foreign investment, and maintaining a sound monetary and fiscal policy. China became a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and hosted a very successful International Olympic Games. B. INTERNATIONAL TRADE ORIENTATION. Beginning in early 1980s, China shifted its economic strategy from self-sufficiency to export orientation. The shift was pivotal to the growth rate of China’s GNP. Concurrently, China is building its domestic consumer sector so that in the future it will have a strong and well-developed domestic market. The multi-billion dollar natural gas contract with Russia in May of 2014 will be a major plus for China’s energy demand. China’s drive for the development of non-fossil fuel under its twelfth five-year plan could make it a world leader in energy exports and offer unmatchable prices on alternative energy in the world market contributing to convergence of per capita income of the silk rout countries.
C. GROWTH RATE PERFORMANCE. The process of China’s remaining catch-up time of per capita income to that of the first world is estimated to take place in approximately two decades. It follows that China’s catch-up time with the first world would take place in five decades, starting in 1980 while it took the first world nearly 50 decades to reach its current level of per capita income. Part of the explanation is the diminishing return to capital in the first world since it is saturated with capital and return to capital has dropped. And the law of accumulation of capital due to growth rates differential between the first world’s average of 2% annual growth and those of China with an annual growth range of 7%-10%. The United States achieved a 2.0 percent average annual growth rate of real GDP per capita between 1891 and 2007. (x) And its growth rate for the next couple decades may be somewhat lower than 2%. This means that there may exist 4%-6% percentage point differential in growth rates that has contributed to the rising trend of annual growth rate of China. This phenomena will continue until China’s per capita income reaches within 70% level of the first world. Then its annual growth rate will conform to the first world’s annual growth rate of approximately 2% per year. D. MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT. China’s sound macroeconomic management was demonstrated during the Great Recession (2007-2009) when its export dropped 15% – 18% causing 23 million to become unemployed, but 98% found jobs as the economy readily bounced back and the unemployment rate dropped to 4%. This performance is in sharp contrast to a number of countries where the recession is still lingering in 2014. It is most notable that China escaped three global financial meltdowns since 1990, including the Japanese severe credit implosion, the Asian economies foreign reserve meltdown caused by capital flight due to rigidity of fixed exchange rate. The Great Recession (2007-2009) which engulfed the world economy was contagious, and China was subject to the turbulence and transmittable global meltdown — but ironically China escaped. China’s experience has drawn re-examination of the Western neoclassical paradigm concerning macroeconomic stability, and efficacy, of countercyclical measures via mini manipulation of the supply of money by the Federal Reserve Board. A better alternative for all nation states is to establish social indicator targets. E. RENEWABLE ENEGY China’s 12th five-year plan has placed specific emphasis upon the targeted development of renewable energy to satisfy 15% of China’s energy needs by the year 2025. This policy will contribute to clean air in China and prevent environmental degradation as the use of fossil fuel is substituted by renewable energy. F. China is already the world’s biggest merchant marine operator according to U.N. data. Container port data compiled by the United Nations shows. Customs administration figures show around 40,000 ships entered and left Chinese ports in the first half of 2014. G. POPULATION POLICY. China’s one-child policy and its recent modification has been optimal given the absolute number and the possibility of population trap. Successful control of fertility rate (number of children per women) is the hallmark of optimal population and determinant of China’s long-term growth potential and carrying capacity. China’s prosperity is closely connected to its population policy although the age distribution of the population may pose some problems concerning productivity in the future. Its population is expected to peak to 1.5 billion by 2040 reaching zero growth rate and avoiding the population trap dilemma. No doubt, it is known that population policy in Europe in the 14th century led to the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century. Technology of industrialization from 18th century to the present created the high level of per capita income in the first world. Clearly, demographic policy affects economic development in all low- and middle-income countries. H. POVERTY REDUCTION. Since 1978, China has uplifted millions of peasants out of poverty and it has been the most successful country in the world in poverty reduction. China will deserve very high marks for its social indictor and distributional objectives. Other favorable political economy policies that have made poverty reduction feasible include annexation of Hong Kong. Three-fifths of China’s foreign direct investment are financed through Hong Kong, and billions of dollars of China’s assets are in Hong Kong’s financial institutions. Development of Growth Zones — such as Shanghai to attract foreign investment — and investment in human capital including all levels of education through college are among the hallmarks of growth policies in China. The above factors have given a major impetus of high growth to China since 1980, ranging in an annual growth rate of 7 to 10%. This is an unprecedented growth rate in the experience of world economy with the exception of Germany in the ’20s, largely due to military buildup. I. ANTI-CORRUPTION CAMPAIGN Unfortunately corruption is a universal problem and once it takes roots it becomes institutionalized and penetrates the culture. Thus it becomes difficult to undo corruption. It is keenly prevalent in low- and middle-income countries. China is no exception in this regard, however, a concerted effort has been launched to bring corruption under control beginning with the effort of former president Hu Jinping and follow-up by the current president Xi Jinping. Beginning in 2012, reportedly imposing punishment occurred upon 182,000 government officials at all ranks through 2014. Several high level party members have been removed; legal cases of anti-corruption of high officials in China have been reported in the Western press with due process. Perhaps China will succeed to clean up corruption completely. The anti-corruption drive in China is serious and admirable. It is certainly instructive for other countries to adopt a policy of transparency and uproot such criminal activities. J. UNIQUE FEATURES OF CHINA’S SOCIETY AND POLITY Altruism, social cognition, equity, equality, egalitarian motives, public service and economic growth are the hallmark of China’s leadership pronouncements. The duel system of one political party and free competitive market economy characterize China’s unique socio-economic-political system. The political system is not monolithic, or colossal, it has worked under a sevenmember Politburo Standing Committee of party congress. Political leadership is elected every five years. Last year 10,000 small protests were tolerated. Currently over half of China’s GDP is produced by private enterprises. China’s government has not been shut down due to internal political dissent of multi-party feuds. More than 250 million people have been lifted out of poverty, this is approximately 20% of the total population. In June of 2014, China’s 2,400-year-old Grand Canal, which historically linked sections of the Silk Road, was awarded Enesco heritage status, as were large portions of the ancient overland Silk Road. The 11,179 kilometer Yunxinou International Railway linking Chongqing and Xinjiang with Europe and, commonly referred to as the “New Silk Road”, runs alongside many of these ancient caravan tracts. The foregoing are indicative that China is embarking in a distinctly alternative approach of inter-governmental collaboration and connectivity to promote economic catch-up of low and middle income countries that are located in the path of silk road. NAKE M. KAMRANY IS PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CLIFORNIA, FRANK JIANG IS PRESIDENT OF A STUDENT RESEARCH ORGANIZATION – THE USC GLOBAL INCOME CONVERGENCE GROUP AND A SENIOR IN ECONOMICS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CLAIFORNIA. References/Sources: 1. International Monetary Fund, http://www.imf.org (http://www.imf.org). Data Base, world economic outlook, GDP, 2014. 2. Kamrany, Nake M. and George Milanovic, “China’s growing economic strength in the 21st century,” Huffington Post, 11/17/2011, also see: NAKE M. KAMRANY and FRANK JIANG, CHINA’S INNOVATIVE PARADIGM – SHARING GLOBAL PROSPERITY – THROUGH CONNECTIVITY OF THE SILK ROUTE COUNTRIES , Huffington Post, September 4, 2014 2014 3. Ibid. Also, see: Kamrany, Nake M, ‘China’s Rapid Recovery in the Great Recession of 20o7-2009,’ Huffington Post, 2/11/2011. 4. THE SILK ROAD Economic Belt Construction and Future: 12 countries Think Tank Forum, Proceedings of Conference, Renmin University of China (RUC), Beijing, China, June 27 – 28, 2014- http”//RDCY2013-SF.RUC.EDU.CN 5. Richard Bernstein, China 1945 Mao’s Revolution and American’s Fateful Choice. N.Y.: Alfred A. Knopf, 2014. 6. Fan, S, ET. Al, “The Economics of China: Successes and Challenges, “NBER, Working Paper No. w19648 for link go to
[email protected] National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) 7. Waggle, S. at al, “Integrating Border Regions and Connectivity and Competition in South Asia,” World Bank Paper No. 6907, Economics Research Network bumi2009fans
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March 22, 2016March 22, 2016
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jatuh hat1 : RESESI amrik v. STRONG $ 2016 (210116) If it’s true, as economic Paul Samuelson once quipped, that the stock market has predicted nine out of the last five recessions, then let’s hope that this is one of those four fake-outs.
washington post: I don’t need to tell anyone who has been brave—or masochistic—enough to look at their 401k that this has been the worst start to the year in market history. Indeed, the S&P 500 is down 10 percent since the calendar turned to 2016. But is this just a blip or the beginning of a bust? Yes. The truth is nobody knows. Trying to explain one or two or even tenday market moves is the easiest way to lose your mind. Sometimes all you can say is that markets go up and markets go down. Anything more is just trying to read the market’s entrails. That said, here’s what I think those entrails are saying. Like a lot of things, this sell-off has been made in China. It has a stock market bubble that’s bursting (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/01/07/whats-really-important-about-chinas-stock-market-disaster-and-whats-not/), a credit bubble that’s actually still inflating (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/01/19/as-growth-slows-china-is-digging-itself-an-even-bigger-hole/), an economy that has already been slowing down, and a government that doesn’t seem (http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21688399-their-response-wobbly-markets-chinas-leaders-reveal-their-fears-crisis-faith? fsrc=scn/tw/te/pe/ed/acrisisoffaith) to know what it’s doing anymore. It’s enough that people are trying to move their money (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-0114/warnings-flash-for-china-money-exodus-after-record-2015-outflows) out of the country before things get any worse—which, of course, ismaking things worse. And that, in turn, has gotten stock markets around the world to give us their best Wile E. Coyote impressions—falling once they glance down—now that it looks like China might be cooling off a good bit more than its official numbers are letting on. But that’s not the whole story. Our markets, after all, have gotten hit pretty hard even though our economy shouldn’t be by China’s slowdown. And besides, to the extent that lower Chinese demand means lower commodity prices, it should actually help us. No, the real problem is that, independent of what’s going on everywhere else, the U.S. economy might be slowing down, too. How is that possible when we’ve been adding an average of 284,000 jobs the past three months? Well, as Andrew Levin (http://www.dartmouth.edu/~alevin/Andrew_Levin_commentary_18jan2016.pdf), a Dartmouth professor and former adviser to Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, points out, that jobs boom doesn’t look like it will last. Industrial production is falling as fast as it does when there’s historically been a recession, and core retail sales, which strip out cars, gas, and building materials, started declining in December. A recession, though? That still seems far-fetched. Sure, the strong dollar has hamstrung manufacturing, but, as economist Dean Baker (https://twitter.com/DeanBaker13/status/689254763834265600) argues, our spate of unseasonably warm weather has made that look worse than it really is. The upshot is that the economy probably won’t grow as fast as before—which was already pretty disappointing—but won’t stop growing at all, either. And if that’s the case, then former International Monetary Fund chief economistOlivier Blanchard (http://blogs.piie.com/realtime/?p=5341) is probably right that this mini-crash doesn’t make a lot of sense. People are selling not because they have a reason to, but because they think other people do. It’s panic all the way down. But, as much as we might want to, that doesn’t mean we can dismiss it. Markets might overreact, but forecasters do the opposite. Of the last 220 recessions in rich countries, the IMF has, as Larry Summers (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/c860bdde-b606-11e5-8358-9a82b43f6b2f.html#axzz3xeUo5n9u) points out, predicted exactly zero a year in advance. What does this mean, then? Not that markets think there will be a recession, but that the recovery is still so fragile that there could be one. All it would take is for the rest of the world to make things a little worse, and for the Federal Reserve to make a mistake. In fact, it already might have. It just raised rates from zero despite the fact that inflation is nowhere near its 2 percent target and isn’t getting much closer. And that, as former Fed president Narayana Kocherlakota (https://sites.google.com/site/kocherlakota009/home/policy/thoughts-on-policy/1-1416) highlights, has made markets think that inflation will only average 1.6 percent even between 2021 and 2026. It’s worth pointing out that even that is based on the somewhat optimistic assumption that the Fed only raises rates one time (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0cfdc50a-bb9c-11e5-b151-8e15c9a029fb.html#axzz3xKaw27Yw) this year, and not the four it says it will (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-fischer-idUSKBN0UK1OT20160106). In other words, the economy still isn’t strong enough to handle much in the way of bad luck or higher interest rates—and it’s getting both right now. That’s bad news for your 401k today, and might be for anyone looking for a job tomorrow. One of these days, the stock market is going to tell us it told us so.
Is The U.S. Really On The Brink Of Recession? February 25, 2016 by Wayne Duggan The stock market and the U.S. economy is off to a bumpy start in 2016, sparking fears that the U.S. will soon fall into its first recession since the Financial Crisis. However, financial markets are often driven more by emotion than reason. Is the U.S. actually on the precipice of a recession, or are markets overreacting? The numbers It’s hard to argue with slowing U.S. economic growth, which dropped to an annualized rate of 0.7 percent in the last quarter of 2015. But while job growth contracted to only 151,000 in the month of January, growth is still growth. Fears about the impact of economic decline in China are also spooking financial markets. While China’s growth rate slowed to a 25-year low in 2015, it remains at 6.9%, enviable by any developed market standards. Even if things go from bad to worse, China exports (http://fortune.com/2016/01/11/stock-market-recession-2016/) represented less than 1% of U.S. GDP last year. Crude oil prices have gone from low to lower in 2016, and the collapse of the U.S. shale industry has weighed heavily on the overall U.S. economy. Morgan Stanley (http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/16/02/6233706/morgan-stanley-oil-will-stay-in-20s-for-another-year) is the latest Wall Street firm to lower oil price projections and now expects crude oil to remain below $30/bbl for at least another year, putting even more pressure on most of the energy sector. Executives’ Take Unfortunately, there’s no sure-fire way to predict a recession, but manybusiness executives (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-08/here-s-what-executives-say-aboutpossibility-of-u-s-recession) have weighed in on the controversy in recent weeks. Jeremy Freedman, CEO of Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc believes that fears of a recession are unwarranted. “There is not a very high likelihood of a recession to the U.S. or globally,” Freedman said on Feb 4. “We think the markets have priced in much worse news.” David Gladstone, chairman and CEO of Gladstone Investment Corp., is not quite so optimistic. “It’s our opinion that we may be entering a recession now and we need to be very, very cautious,” he said on Feb 4. “We don’t see anything on the horizon that indicates a strong economy, but there are some signals out there that we are entering recession.” What Are The Chances? Economic data and market conditions change on a daily basis, so the best forecasters can do in terms of predicting a recession is estimate the likelihood of one happening sometime in the near future. On Jan 22, Morgan Stanley analyst Ellen Zentner (http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/16/01/6163321/we-currently-face-a-20-chance-of-recession) pegged the chance of a U.S. recession in 2016 at only 20%. Bond analyst Marty Fridson (http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/16/01/6139497/high-yield-market-pricing-in-44-recession-risk) calculated in January that the high-yield corporate bond market is pricing in a 44% chance of a U.S. recession within the next year. Bank of America analyst Martin Mauro (http://www.streetwisejournal.com/bank-of-america-25-chance-of-recession-in-2016/) recently upped his 2016 U.S. recession probability to 25%. The New York Fed and Cleveland Fed estimate the chances of a recession in the next 12 months at only 5% and 6.1%, respectively, based on current Treasury yields (http://www.nasdaq.com/article/why-a-recession-could-arrive-without-a-yield-curve-warning-20160206-00005). The bottom line Despite overwhelming fears in financial markets, a number of experts still feel that the chances of a U.S. recession in 2016 are less than 50/50. The stock market, on the other hand, is already pricing in a 50% chance (http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/19/street-this-says-a-50-50-chance-of-a-recession.html)of a recession, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley and Bank of America. If these analysts are correct, the 2016 stock market selloff could ultimately prove to be yet another example of emotional market overreaction rather than an indication that a U.S. recession is imminent. WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The annual pace of U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter was marked up slightly to 1%, but that was mainly because of a bigger stockpiling of inventories that could weigh on the economy in early 2016. The latest snapshot of the economy’s fourth-quarter performance still reflects a slowdown in growth that set in during the waning months of 2015. The government last month initially reported that gross domestic product — the value of everything a nation produces — has expanded at 0.7% rate. The “bottom line is that fourth-quarter GDP growth was still pretty modest,” said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics The economy has also started out 2016 on a softer note — and the high level of inventories in the fourth quarter probably doesn’t help. Firms might have to cut back on production to get inventories back in line. The value of inventories, which adds to GDP, rose by $81.7 billion instead of $68.6 billion as initially reported, the Commerce Department said Friday. The upward revision largely appeared to reflect a technical alteration in how inventories are calculated, but it might also suggest companies got stuck with more unsold goods than they expected. Consumers and businesses both cut back on spending toward the end of the year. Consumers boosted spending by 2% in the fourth quarter, but that was down from an initial 2.2% estimate and was much weaker compared with the spring and fall. Businesses also spent sharply less. Investment in equipment sank a revised 6.6% and outlays on structures such as drilling rigs and office space slipped 1.9%. One good sign: consumer spending in January rose a sharp 0.5%, the government said in a separate report. That may have helped companies reduce excess inventories. Meanwhile, exports fell a steeper 2.7% in the fourth quarter instead of 2.5%, though trade was less of a drag on GDP because imports actually dropped 0.6%. Originally the government said imports increased 1.1%. Inflation as measured by the PCE price index rose at a 0.4% annual rate in the fourth quarter, up from an earlier 0.1% estimate. Looking ahead The upward revision in fourth-quarter GDP had no effect on the economy’s performance in 2015 overall. The U.S. grew 2.4% for the second year in a row, failing to reach 3% for the 10th straight year. The outlook for 2016 doesn’t look any better. Economists predict the U.S. will stick to its current rate of growth, held in check by a strong dollar, weak exports and slack business investment. A strong dollar has made Americans goods more expensive for foreign customers. Demand for “Made in the U.S.” has also suffered because of slower global growth. Also read: U.S. trade gap in goods is widest in seven months (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-trade-gap-in-goods-widens-to-7-month-high-2016-02-26) The drag they are having on the economy has been partly offset by higher consumer spending and a steadily recovering housing market. Americans boosted spending in 2015 by 3.1%, the most in a decade. These countervailing trends were clearly evident in the fourth quarter Investment in new housing, for example, jumped 8% in the final three months of 2015. A surge in hiring and improved personal finances have given more Americans the means to buy a home. Yet American consumers alone cannot push the economy to new heights. Unless businesses spend and invest more and the global climate improves, the U.S. is unlikely to grow any faster. LARRY SUMMERS calls the fed fund rate hike as the higher probability of RECESSION, read for yourself: RESESI neh MENURUT ANALISIS EKONOM SENIOR jaman CLINTONOMICS (http://indekshargasahamgabunganindonesia.blogspot.com/2015/11/lage-data2-yang-mendukung-penundaan-fed.html) Washington, Feb 16, 2016 (AFP) A Federal Reserve regional president called Tuesday for the dismantlement of big banks whose failure could pose serious risk to the global financial system. Neel Kashkari, who took office as president of the Minneapolis Fed on January 1 and was a top Treasury official during the 2008 financial crisis, said in a speech that “bolder, transformational options” must be considered to reform the banking sector. “We must acknowledge that the largest banks are still too big to fail,” Kashkari said at the Brooking Institution in Washington, according to his prepared remarks. And if they fail amid a stressed economic environment, the government “will be forced to bail out failing institutions — as we were.” Kashkari was one of the architects of the government’s massive bailout of banks and automakers in the 2008 financial meltdown. The largest banks “continue to pose a significant, ongoing risk to our economy,” Kashkari said, and the Dodd-Frank Act reforming banking regulation was a step in the right direction but it “did not go far enough.” Kashkari likened the largest banks to the potential destructiveness of a nuclear reactor. “The cost to society of letting a reactor melt down is astronomical,” he said. One option could be “breaking up large banks into smaller, less connected, less important entities,” he said. Another would be to turn them into “public utilities by forcing them to hold so much capital that they virtually can’t fail,” and placed under tough regulation akin to that of a nuclear power plant. “When the Dodd-Frank Act was passed, the economic outlook was perhaps too uncertain to take truly bold action. But the economy is stronger now, and the time has come to move past parochial interests and solve this problem,” he said. Kashkari said that almost by definition, financial regulators will not see the next crisis coming. He recalled that when he first joined the Treasury in 2006 it was evaluating what might trigger the next crisis. “We didn’t consider a nationwide housing downturn. It seems so obvious now, but we didn’t see it, and we were looking.” WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The economy bogged down at the end of 2015, raising questions about whether U.S. growth is losing momentum. Gross domestic product — the value of everything a nation produces — expanded at a 0.7% annual rate from October to December. That’s a big markdown from 2% growth in the fall and 3.9% last spring. http://projects.marketwatch.com/economic-data/? series=GDPC1&theme=white&recession=on&hed=Real+GDP&dek=Change+from+previous+quarter+at+annual+rate%2C+seasonally+adjusted&source=Commerce+Department+via+FRE D&source_link=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bea.gov%2Fnewsreleases%2Frels.htm&drad=3&predictions=none (http://projects.marketwatch.com/economic-data/? series=GDPC1&theme=white&recession=on&hed=Real+GDP&dek=Change+from+previous+quarter+at+annual+rate%2C+seasonally+adjusted&source=Commerce+Department+via+FRE D&source_link=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bea.gov%2Fnewsreleases%2Frels.htm&drad=3&predictions=none)
The economy expanded at a 2.4% clip last year, the same as in 2014, the Commerce Department said. The U.S. hasn’t topped 3% growth since 2005. Softer consumer spending, falling exports and a smaller buildup in business inventories were largely the cause of the fourth-quarter slowdown, fresh government data showed. Inflation waned again. The poor GDP report comes at a delicate time. U.S. stock markets have suffered big losses early in the new year and key segments of the economy such as manufacturing (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-manufacturing-is-teetering-on-the-edge-2016-01-29), energy and retailing are weak. The dimmer landscape has even raised questions about whether the Federal Reserve was right to raise interest rates in December for the first time in almost 10 years — a move taken because the central bank viewed the economy as much improved. In many ways the economy does seem healthier. The number of new jobs created in the fourth quarter, for example, was the strongest of the year. The housing market continues to gain momentum. And consumers are more confident and better off financially now than they’ve been in years. Also read: Behind the puzzle of why companies aren’t firing (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/behind-the-puzzle-of-why-companies-arent-firing-2016-01-28) The big question as the first quarter nears the halfway point is which view of the economy is right. The Fed is betting on a quick rebound, saying earlier this week that it expects the U.S. to “expand at a moderate pace.” If so, the U.S. economy will have to buck recent history. Growth in the first quarter has been much slower than the rest of the year since the nation exited recession in mid-2009. One reason: unusually bad winter weather in recent years. And the eastern half of the U.S. just got socked by a huge snowstorm that kept millions of Americans indoors for days. Inside the GDP report The amount of money spent by consumers increased at a 2.2% annual pace in the final three months of 2015, down from 3% in the prior quarter. That was the biggest reason for the dropoff in GDP. Americans cut back on buying new cars and other big-ticket items. It wasn’t all bad news, though. Unseasonably warm weather reduced utility bills. Households also didn’t have to spend as much on food or gas because of falling prices. Inflation as measured by the PCE index slowed to a 0.1% annual rate from 1.3% in the third quarter — well below the Fed’s 2% target. The central bank expects inflation to remain low in the near term but eventually start to rise as the effect of lower oil prices fade. The nation’s trade balance, meanwhile, deteriorated again and weighed on GDP. Exports fell 2.5% as a strong dollar and weaker growth in many foreign countries dented sales of American-supplied goods and services. Imports rose 1.1%. Businesses, for their part, hunkered down at the end of 2015. Spending on equipment fell 5.3% to mark the third drop in the past four quarters. Outlays on structures also slid 1.8%, reflecting deep cuts in spending by energy producers struggling to cope with cheap oil. Warehouse restocking also tapered off. The value of inventories rose $68.6 billion vs. an $85.5 billion advance in the third quarter. There was some good news. Home construction outlays jumped 8.1%, reflecting a pickup in building amid a steady rise in sales. More people can afford to buy homes after the biggest surge in hiring since the late 1990s. The strong pace of job creation explains why most economists think U.S. growth will snap back soon. Despite the tepid GDP report card, consumers have sharply increased spending over the past few years. Spending in 2015, for example, was the strongest in a decade. Most industries are also still looking to hire in the face of rising demand for their goods and services. Job openings are near a record high. Unless the labor market suddenly deteriorates, economists contend, the U.S. should have enough momentum to skid through the latest soft patch. Repeated ups and downs has become a hallmark of a recovery — the weakest since World War II — that began 6½ years ago. The erratic nature of the recovery, however, also appears to have generated plenty of angst among large swaths of the public. Many voters are considering populist presidential candidates such as Donald Trump on the right and Bernie Sanders on the left who would have stood low odds of success in the era before the Great Recession. newsmax finance: Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, now a Harvard professor, warns that the next recession could hit the nation before officials can do anything to prevent it amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week. “No postwar recession has been predicted a year ahead by the Fed, the administration or the consensus forecast,” Summers, who also was an economic adviser to President Barack Obama and served as Treasury secretary under Bill Clinton, wrote for the Washington Post. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/preparing-for-the-next-recession/2015/12/06/7c7871849c23-11e5-a3c5-c77f2cc5a43c_story.html?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_headlines) “The chances are very high that recession will come before there is room to cut rates enough to offset it,” he wrote. Whatever the Federal Reserve does next week, “the unresolved question that will hang over the economy is how policy can delay and ultimately contain the next recession,” he writes. “The experience of the U.S. and others suggests that once a recovery is mature the odds of it ending within two years are about half and of it ending in less than three years over two-thirds,” he wrote.
“Because normal growth is now below 2 percent rather than near 3 percent, as has been the case historically, the risk may even be greater now,” he wrote. (http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/StreetTalk/Lawrence-Summers-Recession-economy-rate-hike/2015/12/08/id/704942/#) “The Fed will in all likelihood lift rates this month. Markets will focus on the pace of the Fed’s tightening. I hope and expect that their response will involve no great turbulence. But the unresolved question that will hang over the economy is how policy can delay and ultimately contain the next recession. It demands urgent attention from fiscal as well as monetary policymakers.” The U.S. Labor Department reported on Friday that employment increased at a healthy pace in November, in another sign of the economy’s resilience, and will most likely be followed by the first Federal Reserve interest rate rise in a decade later this month. To be sure, traders are wagering that the Fed will manage no more than two further hikes before the end of 2016. That would be less than half the pace the last time the Fed tightened monetary policy. “While this report can help justify a rate hike in December, it can’t justify anything more than a very gradual path of rate hikes,” Brian Jacobsen, chief portfolio strategist for Wells Fargo Funds Management, told Reuters. (http://www.reuters.com/article/usa-fed-futures-idUSL1N13T0W220151204#XyuMmmlZp91tLT7c.99) reuters: Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has the evidence of U.S. labor market health she wanted in order to raise benchmark interest rates for the first time in a decade this month, but she may have a tougher time selling further hikes. Yellen’s arguments against potential dissenters at the Dec. 15-16 Fed policy meeting were strengthened by Labor Department data on Friday that showed employers hired 211,000 people in November while even greater numbers joined the workforce. Federal funds futures contracts imply a 79-percent chance that the Fed will end seven years of near-zero interest rates at its December meeting and about even odds of a second rate rise by March. Beyond that the outlook is more mixed. Interest rate futures maturing in the second half of next year are rising slightly, showing traders are wagering the Fed will manage no more than two further hikes before the end of next year. The differences among Fed policy makers were on display at a Philadelphia Federal Reserve conference on Friday where Narayana Kocherlakota, in his last speech as president of the Minneapolis Fed, gave a sharp critique of a central bank that he said was too anxious to begin raising rates and thus would fail to create perhaps millions of jobs in a timely manner. James Bullard, the more hawkish head of the St. Louis Fed, followed that presentation with one that argued it is time to raise rates and to begin shrinking the central bank’s $4.5 trillion balance sheet which was bulked up in recent years to boost the economy. “You have an open debate between doves and hawks as to what the pace of increases should look like,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities in New York, referring to the divisions within the Fed over readiness to tighten monetary policy. The Fed has appeared gun shy on tightening policy twice already this year, in June and September. Its key policy rate has been 0-0.25 percent since the depths of the financial crisis in late 2008. MIXED MESSAGES Wall Street’s top banks said in a Reuters poll on Friday that they expect the central bank to maintain a slow pace of rate hikes, with the median forecast for the fed funds rate for mid-2016 about 0.75 percent and 1.125 percent for the end of the year. The Fed’s policymakers hold very different views of where the central bank’s benchmark rate will end next year, ranging from less than zero to 3.0 percent, according to projections released in September that were based on their views of appropriate policy. The median outlook was for four quarter-point rises next year, while their views of the long-term normal level range from between 3.0 percent and 4.0 percent. Worryingly for a consensus-seeking Yellen, it is not just traditional “doves” such as Governor Lael Brainard who are questioning the pace of rate rises. Even some of the hawks, who would typically worry more about inflation risks than weak economic growth, are weighing a possibility that they may face a long spell of below normal economic growth and low inflation. Bullard noted that rates have remained low in most advanced economies. If that persists it “may be leading us to an outcome with low nominal interest rates and low inflation that can last for a very long time,” he said, adding the Fed needs to be willing to pause and also to speed up its pace of tightening. Earlier this week, Yellen said the process of rate increases could be gradual but she has yet to spell out what gradual means. One driver for the pace of rate rises will be whether inflation picks up next year, and Friday’s data suggested workers might not be getting big enough raises for businesses to raise prices much. Average hourly earnings rose 2.3 percent in November from a year earlier, down from 2.5 percent in October. Without more inflationary pressures, policymakers likely want to raise rates more gradually. Friday’s jobs report also highlighted Brainard’s argument that weakness in the global economy could constrain U.S. growth more than policymakers currently expect. Manufacturing jobs, which are among the most exposed to the global economy, actually fell by 1,000 in November, the third drop in the last four months. “While this report can help justify a rate hike in December, it can’t justify anything more than a very gradual path of rate hikes,” said Brian Jacobsen, a portfolio strategist at Wells Fargo Funds Management in Menomonee Falls, Wisconsin. (Additional reporting by Ann Saphir (http://blogs.reuters.com/search/journalist.php?edition=us&n=ann.saphir&) in San Francisco, and Dion Rabouin and Rodrigo Campos (http://blogs.reuters.com/search/journalist.php?edition=us&n=rodrigo.campos&) in New York; Editing by David Chance (http://blogs.reuters.com/search/journalist.php? edition=us&n=davidchance&) and Chizu Nomiyama (http://blogs.reuters.com/search/journalist.php?edition=us&n=chizu.nomiyama&)) Washington – Dolar AS yang semakin kuat dan divergensi dalam kebijakan moneter oleh bank-bank sentral utama telah membuat Federal Reserve berhati-hati pada peningkatan suku bunga. Demikian Ketua The Fed Janet Yellen mengatakan, Kamis (03/12/2015). Beberapa jam setelah Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB) mengumumkan penurunan suku bunga deposito dan memperlonggar lebih lanjut kebijakannya, Yellen mengakui bahwa jalur berlawanan The Fed telah mengirimkan dolar lebih tinggi, sehingga memukul ekspor AS. “Ketika kita memiliki kebijakan moneter yang berbeda secara global, sering berarti bahwa itu akan menjadi pergerakan nilai tukar yang menyertainya. Kita telah melihat itu selama satu setengah tahun terakhir,” tegas Yellen. “Kombinasi dari pertumbuhan yang lemah di luar negeri, ditambah pergerakan dalam dolar, telah menjadi faktor yang menekan ekspor neto. Dan itu merupakan sebuah pengurangan dari pertumbuhan,” jelas dia. Memperhatikan bahwa tren ini mungkin akan terus berlanjut, ia mengatakan, “Itu membuat kami jauh lebih berhati-hati dalam hal menaikkan suku bunga.” Tapi dia juga berpendapat bahwa kekuatan ekonomi AS berakar di konsumsi dan investasi dalam negeri, yang terus berkembang. “Untuk alasan mendasar yang sangat baik, ada kekuatan yang lebih besar di sana. Jadi, ketika kami menempatkan semuanya bersama-sama, kami masih melihat gambaran keseluruhan pertumbuhan di atas tren,” kata dia. Meskipun Bank Sentral Eropa memangkas suku bunga pada Kamis, dolar sebenarnya menguat tajam sebesar 2,5 persen terhadap euro, karena, Yellen mencatat, pasar mengharapkan tindakan kuat oleh ECB untuk merangsang pertumbuhan zona euro. Sementara itu, The Fed secara luas diperkirakan akan mulai menaikkan suku bunganya setelah sembilan tahun dalam pertemuan kebijakan 15-16 Desember 2015. http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2257284/yellen-dolar-as-menguat-bikin-the-fed-hati-hati (http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2257284/yellen-dolar-as-menguat-bikin-the-fed-hatihati) Sumber : INILAH.COM Investing.com — The euro enjoyed its strongest one-day move against the dollar in more than six years erasing all of its losses from last month’s swoon, as the European Central Bank sent an early Christmas gift to the single currency with a shocking monetary policy decision on Thursday. In a widely unexpected move, the ECB’s governing council left several key interest rates unchanged and opted not to increase the pace of its €60 billion a month quantitative easing program as many expected heading into the closely-watched meeting. Instead, ECB president Mario Draghi unveiled only modest changes to the bond buying program, including a plan to extend it by six months through March, 2017. Hours later, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen pushed the dollar down even further with hawkish comments at a Congressional hearing on the increasing likelihood that the U.S. central bank will raise short-term interest rates when it meets again in the middle of the month. As a result, the dollar tumbled more than 3% against the euro – its worst one-day fall since March, 2009. EUR/USD (http://www.investing.com/currencies/eur-usd) traded in a broad range between 1.0525 and 1.0980 before settling at 1.0936, up 3.08% on the session. Last month, the euro tumbled more than 4.25% against its American counterpart to near eight-month lows, amid strong signals of forthcoming divergence between the major central banks. The dollar’s rally prompted some Wall Street analysts to forecast euro-dollar parity as early as the winter of 2016, the first in more than 10 years. The euro, though, rebounded on Thursday to reach its highest level against the greenback since early-November, days before a robust U.S. jobs report bolstered the chances of a rate hike by the Fed for the first time in nearly a decade. In testimony before the Joint Economic Committee on Capitol Hill, Yellen said the economy needs to add fewer than 100,000 jobs a month to absorb the losses of those who fell out of the labor market in recent years. In November’s U.S. employment report, which will be released by the Department of Labor on Friday morning, analysts expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 5.0% and expect to see solid job gains of 190,000. For the year, nonfarm payrolls have increased on average by more than 200,000 a month. While speaking at a luncheon at the Economic Club of Washington on Wednesday, Yellen said the labor market has met the Fed’s expectations with its steady progress since the U.S. central bank last met in October. Yellen’s counterpart Draghi, meanwhile, roiled global currency markets on Thursday by delivering less than dovish comments on the state of the ECB’s long-term stimulus plan. Heading into the meeting, Draghi sent strong indications the ECB would employ all tools necessary to boost stubbornly low inflation through euro zone, which is hovering around 0.1%. In March, the ECB launched the €1.1 trillion program in an effort to boost economic growth and stave off deflation. Although the ECB slashed its deposit facility rate by 10 basis points to minus-0.3%, many analysts expected the central bank to cut the rate deeper into negative territory by at least 20 basis points to minus-0.4%. The deposit rate is the rate paid on surplus liquidity or excess reserves institutions deposit at the central bank. “Let me make this clear we are doing more, because it works, not because it fails,” Draghi said at a press conference in Frankfurt. “We concluded that our policies have been effective, in improving credit conditions and financial market conditions, and in the real economy. But the governing council concluded that more stimulus was needed.” The U.S. Dollar Index (http://www.investing.com/quotes/us-dollar-index), which measures the strength of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, fell more than 2% to an intraday low of 97.60, before closing near the session lows at 97.87. The index, which inched up to a 12-month high at 100.58 before Draghi’s announcement, ended Thursday’s session at its lowest closing level in a month. Yields on the U.S. 10-Year (http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/u.s.-10-year-bond-yield) surged 13 basis points to 2.31%, while yields on theGermany 10-Year (http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/germany-10-year-bond-yield) jumped to 0.66%.EUR/GBP (http://www.investing.com/currencies/eur-gbp) surged 1.72% to 0.7221, while USD/JPY (http://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-jpy)fell 0.47% to 122.68. the age: Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen said Wednesday that economic conditions were ripe for the Fed to start raising its benchmark interest rate this month, a move that appears all but inevitable. “The economy has come a long way toward the [Fed’s policy maker’s’] objectives of maximum employment and price stability,” Yellen said, according to the prepared text of a speech to the Economic Club of Washington. Yellen said that when the Fed decided to raise rates, the decision would be “a testament, also, to how far our economy has come in recovering from the effects of the financial crisis and the Great Recession.” “It is a day that I expect we all are looking forward to,” she said. Yellen underscored that the Fed expected to raise rates slowly, because the economy remained weak. And she said the Fed’s policymaking committee would not make a final decision until its meeting December 15 and 16. Fed officials first will have the chance Friday to see the government’s estimate of November job growth. Still, it appears that Yellen and her colleagues, who have held the Fed’s benchmark rate near zero for almost seven years, have finally concluded that the domestic economy is strong enough to keep growing with less support from the central bank. Investors and analysts have generally concluded that the Fed is likely to raise its benchmark rate to a range of 0.25 to 0.5 per cent. By keeping rates low, the Fed has sought to stimulate economic growth by encouraging risk-taking by investors, and borrowing by businesses and consumers. As it raises rates, the Fed will reduce those incentives.
Yellen offered an upbeat assessment of economic conditions, although she emphasised that the recovery from the recession remained incomplete. She said that labour markets had improved substantially. “I anticipate continued economic growth at a moderate pace that will be sufficient to generate additional increases in employment, further reductions in the remaining margins of labour market slack and a rise in inflation to our 2 per cent objective,” Yellen said. She noted also that some drags on the economy had subsided. The risks from foreign economic events have diminished, and the federal government has gotten out of its own way. The New York Times Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/feds-janet-yellen-sees-us-economy-ripe-for-interest-rate-hike-20151202-gle1fa.html#ixzz3tJAWtVyz (http://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/feds-janet-yellen-sees-us-economy-ripe-for-interest-rate-hike-20151202-gle1fa.html#ixzz3tJAWtVyz) Follow us: @theage on Twitter (http://ec.tynt.com/b/rw?id=bRrpOkwwyr34jFadbiUt4I&u=theage) | theageAustralia on Facebook (http://ec.tynt.com/b/rf? id=bRrpOkwwyr34jFadbiUt4I&u=theageAustralia) WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — A reading of manufacturing sentiment fell in November to its lowest level in 25 months, according to data released Monday. The flash manufacturing purchasing managers index from Markit fell to a reading of 52.6 from 54.1 in October, with all five of the PMI components deteriorating. While over the 50 mark indicating improving conditions, this puts the PMI closer to the more downbeat assessment from the Institute for Supply Management. The flash estimate is typically based on approximately 85%-90% of total PMI survey responses each month. Washington, Nov 17, 2015 (AFP) US manufacturers showed firm signs of life in October after a mid-year slowdown, but overall industrial output was lower due to the energy sector slump, Federal Reserve data showed Tuesday.The Fed’s industrial production index lost 0.2 points to 107.2, and showed a bare 0.3 percent gain from a year ago.That was mainly due to the sharp contraction in the oil and coal mining sectors due to the plunge in fuel prices.Utility sector output was also lower, in part because of a very mild autumn in much of the United States, slowing demand.But the manufacturing sector, which had been suffering in part from the slowdown in the global economy and the impact on exports from the strong dollar, showed unexpected strength, jumping 0.4 points in the month. That turned into a 1.9 percent gain over the past 12 months.There was strength last month in automobile output, business supplies and construction materials, all important to stronger overall growth in the US economy.But another key category, consumer goods, was down slightly in the month, though 3.5 percent higher for the year. November 02, 2015 After some minor, but quite important changes to the Fed’s post meeting statement, the market is increasingly of the view that a December rate hike is back in play. Perhaps markets had got slightly ahead of themselves in pricing out a December hike, as the official Fed line had always been that every meeting was “live”. That said, there was justification for expecting the Fed to delay further. The data has generally been soft (and the Fed have told us they are data dependent) and two board governors declared two weeks ago that they were against a December hike. The problem is that the Fed simply has its policy on the wrong setting. With real growth of 2% and nominal growth of nearly 3%, interest rates should not be near zero (along with a bloated balance sheet from past QE). The Fed have been far too easy for too long, petrified of what may happen when they begin to normalise. In our opinion, they should never have embarked on QE2 and QE3, and having allowed markets to become addicted to stimulus, they are having a real tough time beginning the normalisation process, never mind getting interest rates to where they should be, which is somewhere in the 2% range. That said, we all have to deal in the here and now, and as noted above, the majority now seem to think a December hike is on the cards. We can see the sense in starting the process, however evidence is building that the economic cycle is now very mature. Indeed, there are a number of indicators that not only show a real deceleration in the economy, but are positioned as they have been near the start of a recession. In isolation, it seems strange that the Fed would want to start hiking rates now given how mature the post crisis recovery appears to be. Let’s have a look at a few indicators. Chart 1 below shows the year on year growth in US Nominal GDP along with the Federal Funds Rate. There are a few points to make. First, growth post the financial crisis is the lowest it’s been in post WWII history despite unprecedented stimulus. Second, there is a loose connection between nominal growth and interest rates. Historically, the Fed have allowed nominal growth to track some way above interest rates after the end of recessions to allow the recovery to gain traction. The disparity between the two has never been this wide for this long, indicating that rates need to be higher already. Third, nominal growth has already slowed from 4.7% to 2.9% in the last 12 months. Although this is not recessionary, the Fed usually starts raising rates when growth is accelerating. Chart 1 – U.S. nominal GDP growth versus the Federal Funds Rate 02.11.15 1
(https://www.marketviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/02.11.15-1.png?icn=article_to_form&ici=/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/02.11.15-1.png_link_0)
The second chart below shows the year on year per cent change in US Non-Farm Payrolls plotted with the Federal Funds Rate. The rate of jobs growth has already begun to slow (from a high of +2.34% in February this year to 1.97% in September) and is likely to slow further into year end. For example, the average monthly jobs gain so far this year is nearly +200k. If the US can generate 200k jobs each month in the fourth quarter, then the year on year rate drops to +1.70% in December. However, the last three months has seen an average of only +167k new jobs per month. If this lower pace is sustained in Q4, then the year on year rate of jobs growth drops to +1.6% by year end. As with the broad economy, although the deceleration in jobs growth is not necessarily indicative of a pending recessionary, the Fed usually cuts interest rates as this metric declines, and usually only raises rates when jobs growth is accelerating. Chart 2 – Year on Year % growth in U. S. Non Farm Payrolls versus the Federal Funds Rate 02.11.15 2
(https://www.marketviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/02.11.15-2.png?icn=article_to_form&ici=/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/02.11.15-2.png_link_1) The message is similar in wages for non-supervisory workers as shown in chart 3 below. Although we have no doubt that there are pockets of wage pressure, the fact is that, for the vast majority of workers, wages never recovered to normal levels during the post crisis recovery. Wage growth peaked at 2.5% last year and has since declined to 1.9%. Typically, the Fed only raises interest rates when wage growth is accelerating. We suspect that both jobs growth and employment growth have peaked for this cycle already and we are not expecting any meaningful improvement in the months ahead. Chart 3 – Growth in average earnings (for production and non-supervisory jobs) versus the Federal Funds Rate 02.11.15 3
(https://www.marketviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/02.11.15-3.png?icn=article_to_form&ici=/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/02.11.15-3.png_link_2) Let’s look at one more chart. Below, we show industrial production and the year on year growth (lower panel). The main point to make here is that industrial production is already declining (having peaked last December) and the year on year rate is on the verge of moving into negative territory. This is recession territory for this particular part of the US economy, and clearly not something associated with the Fed raising rates. Chart 4 – U.S. Industrial Production is indicative of a recession 02.11.15 4
(https://www.marketviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/02.11.15-4.png?icn=article_to_form&ici=/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/02.11.15-4.png_link_3) We could show more charts, but we think our point is made. The indicators above, along with modest growth in retail sales, falling corporate profits and revenues and declining core capex (exc’l aircraft) are more indicative of a Federal Reserve about to ease policy rather than tighten policy. So what happens if they do raise rates in December, perhaps followed up with another rise in March?
We believe that this would risk a policy error. We think that the Fed have been right to worry about the global economy slowing and the strength of the US Dollar. If the Fed are going to raise rates, especially at a time when most other major central banks are looking to ease policy, then the Dollar probably strengthens further. Assuming this is the case, then we believe that Emerging Markets will struggle further, and the whole cocktail could be enough to push a sluggish and slowing US economy into recession next year. This is clearly not consensus, and is still a lowish probability. However, we believe that recession risks do increase quite a bit if the Fed raises rates two or three times by next Spring/Summer. As for a December rate rise, despite the market moving quickly to price in a December hike, we would still point out that they claim to be data dependent, and there are clearly divisions on the committee. We do not believe a hike is inevitable given data that is indicative of a slow/slowing economy. In terms of our current market views, we remain neutral on equities overall (having bought European equities post ECB), we are long the Dollar and we also believe that bonds and interest rates markets are offering some value here, despite a tough week last week. Clearly, the last five weeks have been “risk on”, however developed equities have outperformed EM equities and US equities have been strong relative to many developed markets. As well as EM underperforming, credit spreads remain relatively wide and advance/decline data has been much more pedestrian than headline indices. This all signals that the rally is not on the most solid of foundations, and we need economic growth to accelerate again to support risky assets across the board. Without an acceleration in growth (likely in our view), the risk on rally is at risk of petering out quite quickly. At best, gains are likely to be harder to come by in the weeks ahead. Although we had to become more constructive post ECB, we are on the lookout for market signals to get more bearish of risk assets in the near future. We have to say that a U.S. recession next year would be a disaster for risk assets, and Fed rate hikes increase recession odds. Stewart Richardson Chief Investment Officer – See more at: https://www.marketviews.com/the-fed-may-raise-interest-rates-out-of-desperation/#sthash.6jzZPWvG.dpuf (https://www.marketviews.com/the-fed-may-raise-interest-rates-outof-desperation/#sthash.6jzZPWvG.dpuf) bloomberg: We just had the jobs report of the year (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-06/payrolls-in-u-s-climb-most-this-year-as-jobless-rate-reaches-5-), exceeding all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The blockbuster edition of U.S. nonfarm payrolls left some on Wall Street feeling even more confident that the Federal Reserve’s tightening phase would start in December, and sent others scrambling to bring forward their calls for liftoff. Here’s a wrapup of who is and isn’t changing their call on Friday. Barclays economists Michael Gapen and Rob Martin move their call to December from March: The October payroll report was very solid and exhibited broad-based strength. It suggests that labor markets have fully rebounded after slowing in August and September. When we moved our rate hike assumption to March 2016, we assumed that the volatility in financial markets would be longer lasting and the Fed would have trouble resolving their differences about the viability of rate hikes before year-end. The October FOMC statement and Chair Yellen’s testimony to Congress were more hawkish than expected, suggesting the committee saw downside risks from global developments as having diminished and activity pointing to a “live possibility” of a rate hike in December. BNP Paribas’s U.S. economics team shifts to December from March: The upside surprise in nonfarm payrolls gave a clear signal that the disappointing August-September employment gains were likely just a blip. We think this significantly increases the odds of a December rate hike and have shifted our expectations for the timing of liftoff to December (previously March). TD Securities Head of Global Macro Strategy David Tulk and Deputy Chief U.S. Macro Strategist Millan Mulraine also moved their call from March to December:
On the whole, this is a very impressive report and it checks all the boxes that the Fed will need to feel comfortable about raising rates in December. In conjunction with fading [emergingmarket] growth fears and a sufficient amount of momentum in the domestic economy reflected in this report and other data, there is a higher likelihood that underlying inflation will return to the 2 percent objective over the medium term. As a result, we have pulled forward our call for the first hike to the December meeting. UBS Deputy Chief U.S. Economist Drew Matus reiterates that it’s time to cancel any Dec. 16 vacation plans, as he sticks with his call: Although there is still some time (and much data) to go before the December meeting, this report raises the odds of a move by the Fed at that FOMC meeting, in line with our outlook. Wages are accelerating, unemployment is falling and, in all likelihood, headline inflation should pop higher as base effects push the overall rate of inflation higher. Goldman Sachs is also sticking with December: The October employment report was solidly better than expected, and we now see a rate increase from the FOMC at the December meeting as very likely. RBC Capital Markets Senior U.S. Economist Jacob Oubina has increased confidence that liftoff is coming in December:
The bottom line for me is that in an environment where the Fed is now promoting slower job growth as the cyclical norm (i.e., NFPs in the low 100,000 zone are “good enough”), prints in the mid-200,000 vicinity help them to pitch a December rate hike (our base case) even more convincingly. After this stellar payroll report December seems as close to a lock as you are going to get. In addition to that, the uptick in y/y average hourly earnings is really going to diminish the doves’ argument that slack remains in the labor backdrop. Société Générale Chief U.S. Economist Aneta Markowska and Senior U.S. Economist Brian Jones think liftoff in December is a done deal: Prior to today’s employment report, we viewed the probability of a December liftoff as essentially a coin toss. Following an even-stronger report than our above-consensus forecasts, the probability has moved substantially higher and we now peg it at 70 percent. The 271,000 gain in payrolls in October has entirely reversed the recent soft patch, erasing any concerns about an underlying slowdown in the pace of hiring. More importantly, the acceleration in wage growth to a new cyclical high suggests that the Phillips curve is beginning to reassert itself after being dormant for a number of years. Mizuho economist Steven Ricchiuto, however, is sticking to his call for a hike in the second quarter of next year: Risks of waiting for the first rate hike are much smaller than the risks of moving too soon. Deutsche Bank Chief U.S. Economist Joe LaVorgna also maintains that we won’t see a rate rise until March: It’s a really strong jobs report, but I’ve learned over the years that reacting to the number isn’t prudent and what matters is the totality of data. To me there is a lot of time left and I’m not convinced the next batch of data will be good enough or that the financial markets will make the Fed confident enough to move next month. … If the meeting was tomorrow, I’d say they were going, but since it’s in December, I don’t want to say they are for sure going this year. Macquarie North America Analyst David Doyle says his call for a December hike has been bolstered:
The report strongly supports the case for December liftoff, which has been our base case since August… The most expansive measure of labour slack fell to a new cycle low of 9.8% (prev. 10.0%). This continues to recede at more than twice the pace of the headline measure of unemployment, having now fallen 1.7 percentage points in the last 12 months. If its current trend continues, it is likely to reach 9.6% by December, the same level it was when the Fed first hiked in June 2004. Bank of Montreal Chief Economist Douglas Porter is also more convinced that a Yuletide hike is in the cards: Thankfully, today’s rock-solid U.S. jobs report has all but sealed the deal, especially in the wake of October’s strong financial market bounceback and recent not-bad economic outcomes in the global economy (i.e., China). The employment report was as close to a no-doubter as they come, replete with an impressive headline reading (+271,000), net upward revisions to prior months, a dip in the jobless rate (to 5.0%), solid earnings (+0.4%, and 2.5% y/y, the best in six years), and solid hours worked (+0.3%). Any questions?…We are now more comfortable than ever calling for a Fed rate hike in December, with a follow-up move not much further down the line. Above and beyond the strong jobs data, U.S. spending and housing remain robust, and financial markets are healthy, leaving low inflation as the only possible justification for holding steady. Citigroup Economist Peter Dantonio said their economists are continuing to forecast that liftoff will occur in March: October employment gains of 271 thousand and an apparent pick up in wage growth—what a great employment report. It would take a “bunker-buster” offset to deter the FOMC from raising rates in December, in our view. This sounds like September all over again. And all it took then was the markets to react badly to events in China (so said Chair Yellen). Were they not apparently so fickle, we would change our Fed call right now to a December hike. But the recent actions of the FOMC imply it is possible sentiment may switch even from current lofty levels of near-certainty about December. Scotiabank Chief Economist Derek Holt said the report has paved the way for raising rates in December, in line with his projection: The three month nonfarm payroll average is 181k (+12k were added on net to Sept. and Aug. via revisions), not the highest number seen in recent years, but easily strong enough to meet the Fed’s criteria for an improving labor market and thus raising the Fed Funds rate in December. Coupled with already observed readings on inflation and GDP, and barring a major revision to domestic economic data to the downside or a major international economic crisis materializing in the next month, today’s nonfarm number means that the odds have to favor a Fed hike in December. Meanwhile, market-based probability of the first hike coming in December has moved sharply higher in the past week, with much of the rise coming after the meeting.
Emerging market resilience Tatiana Didier, Constantino Hevia, Sergio Schmukler 09 August 2011 The global crisis of 2008-09 hit emerging markets nearly as hard as it hit rich countries, which is welcome news compared to previous crises in which emerging markets often suffered much more than developed economies. This column explores emerging economies’ growth dynamics since the crisis. According to popular perception, emerging economies fared substantially better than advanced countries during the Great Recession. For example, studies show that advanced countries attained lower rates of GDP growth during the crisis even after taking account of the usual controls (e.g. Frankel and Saravelos 2010; Rose and Spiegel 2010). However when we look at collapses in GDP growth, the evidence suggests that, on impact, the crisis hit emerging and advanced countries equally hard. This approach has been taken by several influential studies (Blanchard et al. 2010; Claessens et al. 2010; Lane and Milesi-Ferretti 2010), In a recent paper (Didier et al. 2011), we argue that emerging countries suffered declines in real GDP growth comparable to, or even larger than, those in advanced countries. Moreover countries rebounded in the aftermath mostly according to how deep their collapse had been. In particular, we identify a non-linearity between the collapse in GDP growth and GDP per capita. The largest growth collapses tended to occur in the wealthier emerging countries and poorer high-income economies. In an important sense, this is good news. Unlike earlier crises, where emerging nations often fared much worse than developed nations, this time the shock had similar effects. Moreover, emerging nations were able to use a larger set of policy tools. There is, of course, heterogeneity among emerging nations. Eastern Europe and Central Asia fared the worst. In the case of lowincome countries, their relatively lower degree of trade and financial openness helped shelter them from the worst declines in output growth.
GDP growth performances compared The length of the recession and the post-crisis performance is one area where emerging economies did fare better, partly because of structural reasons and partly because their policies worked in their favour this time around. Based on relatively high-frequency industrial production data, Figure 1 shows that the number of months that emerging economies were under recessionary pressures was smaller than that of advanced countries. For example, by September 2009, emerging countries, as a group, achieved their pre-crisis levels of industrial production, while advanced countries were still well below their pre-crisis level, even by the end of 2010. Moreover, while advanced countries were able to return to their pre-crisis growth rates by January 2010, emerging economies enjoyed by then even higher growth rates than before the crisis, allowing them to return faster to their trend output level. For example, while industrial production in advanced economies was over 16 percentage points below trend in November 2010, it was only 7 percentage points below trend in emerging economies at that time. Figure 1. Industrial production
Notes: This figure shows industrial production (IP) during the 2008-2009 crisis across income levels. Panel A, B, and C show the IP level, indexed to 100 in April 2008, and the IP level precrisis trend for the three income levels. The pre-crisis trend for each income level is constructed by calculating the pre-crisis compounded annual growth rate between January 2005 and April 2008, and extrapolating it until the end of the sample. Panel D shows the evolution of year-on-year (YOY) IP growth relative to the pre-crisis average YOY IP growth. Pre-crisis average YOY IP growth is calculated across the January 2005-April 2008 period. IP data come from the World Bank’s Global Economic Monitor. Income level averages are weighted by 2007 nominal GDP in U.S. dollars from the World Economic Outlook (October 2010). Advanced economies are economies classified as “High Income” under the World Bank July 2010 classification (both OECD and non-OECD). Economies are classified as emerging if they have access to IBRD financing, and as low income if they only have access to IDA financing. Four factors seem to be behind the differentiated post-crisis behaviour of emerging-market countries, relative to their past and to advanced economies.
The first and most obvious one is that the root of the problem was in the financial markets of advanced countries and that developing countries had a low exposure to these markets relative to other developed countries. At the same time, the financial collapse hit highly leveraged consumers in some developed countries, while consumption was posed to continue growing at a high rate in emerging countries. The second reason is that one of the main crisis transmission channels seems to have been international trade. As the US economy came to a standstill in the fourth quarter of 2008, firms stopped their international orders anticipating an accumulation of inventories (due to the orders already being processed and shipped). This generated an immediate collapse in production in several emerging economies focused on supplying manufactures to the world economy. As inventories started to decrease and it became more likely that global demand would stabilise and the crisis would not be transmitted in full to emerging economies, firms reignited the production process and overall economic activity in emerging markets picked up. Thus emerging economies were able to generate a faster recovery than developed countries (for which manufacturing accounts for a smaller share of total activity). The third reason is that, to the extent that emerging economies grow at a higher pace in their path to become richer nations, a recovery of their growth trajectory would make their output converge sooner to the pre-crisis level. The fourth reason for the better post-crisis performance of emerging economies, at least relative to their previous history, is a fundamental change in the way these countries have conducted their policies in the recent past. In effect, the behaviour of emerging countries during the global crisis might come as a surprise given previous experiences during turmoil periods, when foreign shocks tended to end up as full-blown domestic crises. But a change in the policy stance seems to have taken place in the late 2000s (Gourinchas and Obstfeld 2011; Kose and Prasad 2011). More countercyclical policies were pursued before and during the global crisis. Furthermore, as opposed to previous crises, the resilience of countries to the 2008-09 crisis might be partly attributed to a combination of sounder macroeconomic and financial policy frameworks and a shift towards safer domestic and international financial stances. The global crisis found many emerging countries with more fiscal space, better balance sheets, and the required credibility to conduct expansionary fiscal and monetary policies.
In sum, given the scale of the global crisis, it was difficult for emerging countries to decouple from the world economy at the same time that they were part of the global production system, used foreign funds to finance investments, and held assets abroad. Any significant collapse of global demand and in the financial centres was likely to get transmitted to all countries linked to them. Emerging economies fell in this category. The continuing integration to global trade and global financial markets poses trade-offs to developing countries. While integration tends to be associated with higher growth and other positive traits, it also makes countries vulnerable to foreign shocks and contagion effects. Given these risks, emerging countries would probably try to keep improving their external positions, saving more, accumulating reserves, expanding their fiscal space, reducing credit mismatches, building buffers in the financial system, and gaining confidence and credibility in their monetary and financial policies, among other things. These policies seemed to have been helpful during the global downturn and the incentives for emerging countries to stay in the same path only became more obvious. Unfortunately, some of these policies entail pecuniary and opportunity costs, like the costs of hoarding reserves, those related to developing local currency and long-term debt markets, and those implied by a slowdown in the growth rate of credit and consumption. Moreover, the actions by some countries have some negative spillover effects on other countries. For example, by limiting foreign capital inflows some countries might push capital to neighboring countries, exerting more pressure on their currencies. In a world where goods and capital continue to flow increasingly across nations, future research might help us understand the general equilibrium effects of the policies adopted to deal with globalisation.
References Blanchard, O, H Faruqee, and M Das (2010), “The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,Spring:263-307. Claessens, S, G Dell’Ariccia, D Igan, and L Laeven (2010), “CrossCountry Experiences and Policy Implications from the Global Financial Crisis”, Economic Policy,62:267-293. Didier, T, C Hevia, and S Schmukler (2011), “How Resilient Were Emerging Economies to the Global Economic Crisis? (http://ssrn.com/abstract=1817440)”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5637. Frankel, J, and G Saravelos (2010), “Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 Global Crisis”, NBER Working Paper 16047, June. Gourinchas, PO, and M Obstfeld (2011), “Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First”, American Economic Association Annual Meeting, Denver, CO. Kose, A, and E Prasad (2010), Emerging Markets: Resilience and Growth amid Global Turmoil,Washington, DC: Brookings. Lane, P, and GM Milesi-Ferretti (2010), “The Cross-Country Incidence of the Global Crisis”, IMF Working Paper 10/171, July. Rose, A and M Spiegel (2010), “Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: International Linkages and American Exposure”, Pacific Economic Review, 15(3):340-363.
The Most Surprising Thing About Today’s Jobs Report Submitted by Tyler Durden (http://www.zerohedge.com/users/tyler-durden) on 11/06/2015 16:39 -0500 After several months of weak and deteriorating payrolls prints, perhaps the biggest tell today’s job number would surprise massively to the upside came yesterday from Goldman, which as we noted earlier (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-06/your-last-minute-payrolls-preview-what-wall-street-expects), just yesterday hiked its forecast from 175K to 190K. And while as Brown Brothers said after the reported that it is “difficult to find the cloud in the silver lining” one clear cloud emerges when looking just a little deeper below the surface. That cloud emerges when looking at the age breakdown of the October job gains as released by the BLS’ Household Survey. (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t09.htm)What it shows is that while total jobs soared, that was certainly not the case in the most important for wage growth purposes age group, those aged 25-54. As the chart below shows, in October the age group that accounted for virtually all total job gains was workers aged 55 and over. They added some 378K jobs in the past month, representing virtually the entire increase in payrolls. And more troubling: workers aged 25-54 actually declined by 35,000, with males in this age group tumbling by 119,000!
(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/11/Oct%20additions.jpg) Little wonder then why there is no wage growth as employers continue hiring mostly those toward the twilight of their careers: the workers who have little leverage to demand wage hikes now and in the future, something employers are well aware of. The next chart shows the break down the cumulative job gains since December 2007 and while workers aged 55 and older have gained over 7.5 million jobs in the past 8 years, workers aged 55 and under, have lost a cumulative total of 4.6 million jobs.
The same chart as above showing the full breakdown by age group – once again the 25-54 age group sticks out.
(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/11/age%20detail.jpg) But young workers’ loss is old workers’ gain, as the following chart of total jobs held by those aged 55 and over shows. As of October, there was a record 33.8 million workers in the oldest age group tracked by the BLS – the same workers who, as noted above, also have the poorest wage negotiating leverage.
(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/11/Old%20Workers.jpg) Finally, the most disappointing data point in today’s report is that while overall labor growth was solid, the participation rate for workers 25-54, was 80.7%, far below is peak of just under 85%, and below the 80.8% at the end of 2014.
(http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2015/11/part%20rate%2025-54.jpg) Time for a rate hike? JULY 17, 2015
The Effect of the Strong Dollar on U.S. Growth Mary Amiti and Tyler Bodine-Smith Correction: This post was updated on July 17 to replace the term “export volumes” with “real export values.” Although the terms are often used interchangeably, the term “real export values” is deemed more precise. We have updated the post accordingly. The recent strengthening of the U.S. dollar has raised concerns about its impact on U.S. GDP growth. The U.S. dollar has appreciated around 12 percent since mid-2014, rising against almost all of our trading partners, with the largest gains against Japan, Mexico, Canada, and the euro area. There was far less movement against newly industrial Asian economies and hardly any change against China. In this blog, we ask how the strength of the dollar affects U.S. GDP growth. Although the dollar can impact the U.S. growth through a number of different channels, we focus on the direct impact through the U.S. trade balance. Our analysis shows that a 10 percent appreciation in one quarter shaves 0.5 percentage point off GDP growth over one year and an additional 0.2 percentage point in the following year if the strength of the dollar persists.
Exchange rate movements affect the trade balance by changing the prices of domestically produced goods relative to goods produced abroad, an outcome that in turn affects relative demand. A stronger dollar makes U.S. imports relatively cheaper than domestically produced goods, which pushes consumers to substitute towards imported goods and provides firms with relatively cheaper inputs from abroad. Though both consumers and importing firms benefit from lower import prices, the data show that the extent of the benefit is limited because exchange rate movements are not fully passed through into prices seen by U.S. buyers. We estimate that a 10 percent rise in the dollar results in a 3.8 percent decline in nonoil import prices. Instead of adjusting prices charged to U.S. consumers by the full exchange rate change, firms exporting to the United States adjust their profit margins. Because import prices do not adjust by the full extent of the appreciation, the increase in demand for import quantities in response to the appreciation is moderated. The New York Fed trade model suggests a 10 percent appreciation of the U.S. dollar in one quarter (which then persists) results in 0.9 percent increase in real import values, as shown in the table below. On the export side, a stronger dollar makes the price of U.S. exports more expensive when converted into foreign currency terms, reducing U.S. export growth. In order to try to maintain competitiveness, U.S. firms adjust their markups rather than pass on the full exchange rate appreciation into foreign prices. That is, U.S. exporters take a hit on their profit margins in order to maintain market shares. The New York Fed trade model suggests that a 10 percent appreciation of the U.S. dollar is associated with a 2.6 percent drop in real export values over the year. Consequently, the net export contribution to GDP growth over the year is 0.5 percentage point lower than it would have been without the appreciation and a cumulative 0.7 percentage point lower after two years.
There are many factors that determine how big of an impact exchange rate movements have on local prices, and hence on real import and exports values. Some studies (https://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.104.7.1942) have shown that firms tend to set different prices in different markets for the same goods. Their prices depend on the demand conditions in each market, the exporting firm’s market power, and its import intensity. An additional, related, factor contributing to low exchange rate pass-through is what is referred to as “local currency pricing,” where firms choose to invoice their exports in foreign currency, making their prices “sticky” in that currency. For example, if U.S. imports are priced in dollars, then a dollar appreciation would not change the import price at all in U.S. dollars for existing orders and would mechanically translate into higher markups of firms exporting to the U.S. market. Although the prices for new orders can change, there is evidence of some rigidity in price setting. What is special about the U.S. case is that its export prices (and import prices) are mostly denominated in U.S. dollars whereas other countries tend to set prices in the currency of the destination market. This pattern of invoicing combined with price stickiness can help explain the much bigger impact on exports than imports shown in the table. This is consistent withprevious literature (https://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.100.1.304) that has found that pass-through into U.S. import prices is much lower than pass-through into U.S. export prices in local currency terms. The New York Fed trade model does not include other channels through which the exchange rate can also affect U.S. growth. For example, the decline in U.S. exporters’ profitability could reduce their domestic investment spending on plant and equipment. On the upside, lower prices of imported inputs reduce firms’ marginal costs, which increase firms’ profitability. Moreover, lower import prices increase consumers’ disposable income, boosting consumption of both imports and domestically produced goods and services. Such indirect effects are potentially important, but they are a lot more difficult to quantify. JAKARTA okezone – Perdagangan bursa saham Amerika Serikat (AS) pada penutupan minggu ini sedikit menguat. Hal tersebut disebabkan asumsi pasar bahwa The Fed akan menaikan suku bunga. Pasalnya laporan angka pekerjaan di AS menunjukan semakin membaik. Sementara tingkat pengangguran di AS juga turun menjadi 5 persen. Alhasil tidak The Fed akan semakin yakin untuk menaikan suku bungamnya. Demikian dilansir dari Reuters (7/11/2015). Tiga indeks utama membukukan kinerja mingguan lebih tinggi untuk minggu keenam berturut-turut, setelah membukukan hasil bulanan terbaik mereka dalam empat tahun pada bulan Oktober. “keseluruhan pasar pada hari jumat itu bertahan dengan baik,” ujar pejabat investasi co-chief di Oakbrook Investasi di Lisle, Illinois, Peter Jankovskis. “Sementara suku bunga yang lebih tinggi sendiri bukan hal yang baik, mosi percaya dalam kekuatan ekonomi saya pikir akan membayangi bahwa dari waktu ke waktu,” kata Jankovskis. Pada penutupan perdagangan mingguan pada Jumat waktu setempat, ketiga indeks utama Wall Street berhasil menguat. Indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average naik 46,9 poin atau 0,26 persen ke 17.910,33, S&P 500 turun 0,73 poin atau 0,03 persen ke 2.099,2 dan NAsdaq Composite naik 19,38 poin atau 0,38 persen 5.147,12. Beberapa saham emiten juga terlihat bergerak terbatas, saham Alibaba (BABA.N) tercatat turun 2,1 persen menjadi USD83,61. sementara Saham Disney (DIS.N) naik 2,4 persen menjadi USD115,67 setelah, laporan laba yang meningkat yang dikerluarkan kinerja. (rzy)
3 Ways a Strong Dollar Impacts the Global Economy By Dr. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist, J.P. Morgan Funds November 27, 2014 In recent months, the rising dollar has become a key theme in financial markets. Currency movements have always been complicated both in their causes and consequences. However, there are relatively straightforward explanations for the dollar surge in 2014. Moreover, while a higher dollar presents challenges for both investors and U.S. corporations, at this time it appears to be a positive force in the global economy and, in the long run, for global investors.The dollar’s rise, while not extraordinary, is certainly significant. As this is being written, on a year-to-date basis, the dollar is up 8.8% versus the euro, 3.2% against the British pound and 2.4% against the Yen, with almost all of the gains coming since May. A number of factors have likely contributed to the dollar’s ascent.• First, compared to other major economies, the U.S. is currently displaying the best momentum relative to its trend growth pace. Following a 4.6% real GDP surge in the second quarter, the U.S. appears to have grown by a healthy 3% in the third. This is in contrast to the eurozone, China and Japan which, while not in recession, have shown signs of relative stagnation over the summer. Traditionally, fast-growing economies have rising currencies due to capital inflows (https://about.jpmorganfunds.com/insights/should-investors-hedgetheir-foreign-currency-exposure/?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=barrons&utm_campaign=brand&utm_content=3-ways-a-strong-dollar-impacts-the-global-economy-keyword-risingcurrencies&source=referral_barrons_brand_3-ways-a-strong-dollar-impacts-the-global-economy-keyword-rising-currencies).• Second, the Federal Reserve looks set to increase interest rates in 2015, unlike either the European Central Bank or the Bank of Japan. All other things being equal, investors like to hold their assets in whatever currency pays the highest short-term rates. While short-term rates are close to zero across the developed world today, expected rate hikes from the Federal Reserve (https://www.jpmorganfunds.com/cm/Satellite? pagename=jpmfVanityWrapper&UserFriendlyURL=browseslides&slide_id=1323400870637&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=barrons&utm_campaign=brand&utm_content=3-ways-astrong-dollar-impacts-the-global-economy-keyword-expected-rate-hikes&source=referral_barrons_brand_3-ways-a-strong-dollar-impacts-the-global-economy-keyword-expected-rate-hikes) should change this over the course of 2015. If investors expect the dollar to be in favor then because of higher rates, it makes sense to buy dollars today to take advantage of the expected appreciation.• Third, the shale energy revolution is having a major impact in reducing the U.S. trade deficit. To put this in perspective, in 2005, the U.S. consumed 20.8 million barrels of petroleum products a day, of which 12.5 million or 60% had to be imported. In 2013, we consumed 19.0 million barrels, of which 6.6 million or 35% were imported. By 2015, according to Energy Department estimates, we will consume 19.1 million barrels, of which just 4.1 million barrels or 21% will be imported. In other words, while the long-term trend is startling, even the increase in domestic production between 2013 and 2015 could save 2.5 million barrels per day which, at $90 a barrel, would cut roughly $80 billion from a $480 billion trade deficit—this is a clear positive for the U.S. dollar.It is very important to note that all of these factors should, by now, be imbedded in exchange rates. In theory, U.S. dollar movement from here depends not on these trends but rather on any further surprises in growth, central bank policy or trade numbers. We may well get such a surprise from more aggressive Fed tightening than the market expects. However, it would be unwise to make too big a bet on further dollar appreciation on the tenuous assumption that the Fed turns more hawkish.Having said this, the dollar move so far has and will have some important impacts on the global economy and investment environment.The most obvious effect, so far, is a negative impact on international investment returns. For example, on a year-to-date basis, by the end of September, while the MSCI EAFE index of developed country international stocks was up 4.5% in local currency terms, it was down 1% measured in U.S. dollars.A second problem is the impact of a rising dollar on the earnings of U.S. companies with large foreign operations. In 2012, of the S&P 500 companies that provided details on foreign sales, almost 47% of total sales came from abroad. While this probably overstates the importance of foreign sales for the S&P 500 overall, clearly a higher dollar, which cuts the dollar value of international revenues, is a drag on earnings. On average in the third quarter, the major currency U.S. dollar index was up just 1.8% year-over-year, so the impact of a higher dollar on third-quarter earnings should not be too significant. However, even if the dollar were flat for the rest of the current quarter, the dollar index would still be up 6.7% year-over-year for the fourth, suggesting a more significant drag on profits. Nevertheless, even with this, solid GDP growth (http://about.jpmorganfunds.com/insights/3-key-portfolio-themes-for-investors-in-2015/? utm_medium=referral&utm_source=barrons&utm_campaign=brand&utm_content=3-ways-a-strong-dollar-impacts-the-global-economy-keyword-lower-gasolineprices&source=referral_barrons_brand_3-ways-a-strong-dollar-impacts-the-global-economy-keyword-lower-gasoline-prices) combined with only slowly rising interest rates and wage growth should deliver mid-single-digit profit gains for the rest of this year and next.
On the positive side, a rising dollar is cutting import prices in general, which should help hold inflation in check. In addition, as is often the case, oil prices seem to be reacting more than would seem logical to the dollar movement. Over the past year, while the dollar index has risen by 7.2%, WTI crude oil prices have fallen by 16.8%. By feeding through to lower gasoline prices (http://www.jpmorganfunds.com/cm/Satellite? pagename=jpmfVanityWrapper&UserFriendlyURL=insightslibrary&source=searchre sults&mcaction=detail&rmid=1323391508238&utm_medium=referral&utm_source= barrons&utm_campaign=brand&utm_content=3-ways-a-strong-dollar-impacts-theglobal-economy-keyword-japan&source=referral_barrons_brand_3-ways-a-strongdollar-impacts-the-global-economy-keyword-japan), this boosts the real disposable income of the average American household, a long-overdue bonus in what has been a very unequal economic recovery. In addition, while markets fear the advent of Fed rate hikes in 2015, the reduced inflation pressure from a rising dollar may allow the Fed to start later and raise rates more slowly than would have otherwise been the case. Most importantly, however, a higher dollar effectively transfers demand from the U.S. economy to economies around the world. At this stage of the global business cycle, this is a welcome development. The U.S. unemployment rate is now below its 50-year average and falling fast, highlighting the limited remaining capacity for the U.S. economy to absorb extra demand without generating inflation. By contrast, other economies such as Japan (http://www.jpmorganfunds.com/cm/Satellite? pagename=jpmfVanityWrapper&UserFriendlyURL=browseslides&slide_id=1159397329588&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=barrons&utm_campaign=brand&utm_content=3-ways-astrong-dollar-impacts-the-global-economy-keyword-gdp-growth&source=referral_barrons_brand_3-ways-a-strong-dollar-impacts-the-global-economy-keyword-gdp-growth), emerging Asia and Europe could do with a boost to their exports, which should be the result of a higher dollar. In the long run this should lead to a healthier, more balanced global economy. Investment decisions should always be made with an eye to the future and it is, as always, very difficult to forecast the direction of the dollar from here. However, the rise in the dollar so far in 2014 will have impacts well into 2015, and those impacts should be generally positive for the global economy and risk assets in both the U.S. and around the world. More insight on how to guide clients in today’s environment at jpmorganfunds.com (https://about.jpmorganfunds.com/asset-class/fixed-income/? utm_medium=referral&utm_source=barrons&utm_campaign=brand&utm_content=3-ways-a-strong-dollar-impacts-the-global-economy&source=referral_barrons_brand_3ways-a-strong-dollar-impacts-the-global-economy)
Emerging Markets ‘Resilience Indicator’ Reveals Which Countries Are Prepared For Financial Crisis By Kathleen Caulderwood (http://www.ibtimes.com/reporters/kathleen-caulderwood) @kcaulderwood (http://www.twitter.com/kcaulderwood)
[email protected] (mailto:
[email protected]) on April 03 2015 3:21 PM EDT Argentina, Brazil and Chile are setting themselves up for disaster. So says an economist who has devised a way to gauge an emerging country’s ability to survive a global financial crisis. “Conditions in the period before the eruption of an adverse external shock are central in determining the resilience of an emerging market economy to the shock,” writes Liliana Rojas-Suarez, a researcher at the Center for Global Development, in a recent paper on the subject (http://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/CGD-Essay-Rojas-Suarez-Emerging-Market-MacroeconomicStability_0.pdf). “In 2007, an analyst studying a few variables in emerging markets would have been able to predict, with high accuracy, the relative economic and financial resilience of these countries to the global financial crisis.” Rojas-Suarez ranks 21 countries on a “resilience indicator,” according to how each one is likely to fare in the event of a worldwide economic downturn.
In her most recent ranking, India and Malaysia have moved downward, but Argentina holds the lowest rank. The country has lost access to international capital markets, due to its debt dispute with the United States, and it continues to be fraught with domestic problems. It doesn’t help that it’s also part of a region that doesn’t fare well. “The ranking does not deliver good news for Latin America,” Rojas-Suarez wrote, noting that four of the six Latin American countries have fallen in the overall ranking, due to “some bad luck in unfavorable terms of trade, but also the squandering of opportunity to implement needed reforms in the good post-crisis years are the main reasons behind this outcome.” On Rojas-Suarez’s diagram, countries whose rankings are marked in green are those that have improved their status since the last crisis, while red countries have gone down by two or more positions. Looking at indicators such as inflation, government debt and current account balance, Rojas-Suarez noticed that a few patterns emerged. Some countries are better prepared than others.
Economists at the Center for Global Development have created a “resilience indicator” to show which countries are best prepared for a financial crisis. Center for Global Development According to the data, emerging Europe is the most improved region, mainly because “the region displayed huge economic imbalances in the pre-crisis period that are now being corrected.” Though the indications sound dire, the author warns that the study is not about predicting a crisis, but helping countries better prepare themselves. “My goal in this paper has been to emphasize that the lessons from the global financial crisis should not be forgotten,” she wrote. “Time is still on the side of emerging markets.” cnbc: Economics is known as an imprecise science and one might need look no further than the business of calling recessions to see that. Unlike the weather, recessions arrive before you know it and depart under the same circumstances. The National Bureau of Economic Research, or NBER, (http://www.nber.org/cycles.html/) is considered the official arbiter of recessions, but it doesn’t define a recessions by the school book measure of two or more consecutive quarters of economic contraction as measured by GDP. It states that “a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months. The last recession ran from March 2001 through November 2001, according to the NBER. (See chart) When 9/11 hit, many economists feared the event would throw the U.S. economy into recession. In fact, it already was. Then Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan’s enormous efforts to stoke the economy — including interest rate cuts — were later determined to have made the recession shallower and shorter. History later showed that the recession officially ended in December of 2001. Indeed, until the last 25 years, recessions were a common economic event, often occurring every few years. Three of the last four recessions have been unusually short by historical stands, averaging seven months. The other (1981-1982) lasted 16 months and was the longest since WWII. Two of them were caused by so-called “oil shocks”. “I think the economy itself has changed,” says Richard Sylla, a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business, who specializes in economic and financial history.” We’re much more of a service economy. It used to be easier to forecast when we were more manufacturing based.” If at this point you are doubting the credentials of the NBER, it is worth noting that 16 of the 31 American Nobel Prize winners in economics and half a dozen former heads of the Council of Economic Advisers have been researchers at the NBER. The later category includes none other than Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who chaired the CEA in 2005-2006 and was one director of the monetary economics program at the NBER.
Recessions of the 20th Century Date
Duration
Sept. 1902-Aug. 1904
23
May 1907-June 1908
13
Jan. 1910-Jan. 1912
24
Jan. 1913-Dec. 1914
23
Aug. 1918-March 1919
7
Jan. 1920-July 1921
18
May 1923-July 1924
14
Oct. 1926-Nov. 1927
13
Aug. 1929-March 1933
43
May 1937-June 1938
13
Feb. 1945-Oct. 1945
8
Nov. 1948-Oct. 1949
11
July 1953-May 1954
10
Aug. 1957-April 1958
8
April 1960-Feb. 1961
10
Dec. 1969-Nov. 1970
11
Nov. 1973-March 1975
16
Jan. 1980-July 1980
6
July 1981-Nov. 1982
16
July 1990-March 1991
8
March 2001-Nov. 2001
8
source: NBER bumi2009fans
GREAT depression
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Hot Money GAME once again @ BEI (http://indekshargasahamgabunganindonesia.blogspot.com/2016/02/ihsg-per-tgl15-februari-2016.html) Jakarta detik -Pembangunan Terminal 3 Ultimate Bandara Soekarno Hatta semakin mendekati selesai. Saat ini pekerjaan fisik konstruksi terminal paling anyar Bandara tersibuk di Indonesia ini telah mencapai 96%. Bagaimana penampakannya? Kemegahan Terminal 3Ultimate ini sudah bisa terlihat dari kejauhan begitu memasuki kawasan BandaraSoekarnoHata. Begitu memasuki kawasan bandara selepas keluar Jalan Tol, Terminal ini tampak mentereng di sisi sebelah kanan jalan.
Jalan-jalan layang yang terlihat seperti rangkaian temali saling membentuk simpul menjadi penghias tampilan depan Terminal ini. Di belakangnya terpampang bangunan raksasa, melebar ke samping. Bangunan raksasa tersebut adalah bangunan utama Terminal 3 Ultimate Bandara Soekarno Hatta. Tampilan mukanya begitu gagah, dan terkesan modern, berupa dinding-dinding lebar yang tertutup kaca dengan susunan rapat dan rapih. Semakin mendekat ke bangunan utama, persaan berdebar-debar semakin menyelimuti detikFinance yang sempat menyambangi lokasi proyek ini. Melaju melintasi jembatan layang yang dari kejauhan tadi tampak seperti simpul tali, membuat perjalanan seperti menembus dunia lain. mi Meskipun belum selesai, nuansa megah yang membedakan Ternal 3 Ultimate dengan Terminal 1 dan 2 sudah begitu terasa. Sembari melintas jembatan layang, mata pun dimanjakan dengan pemandangan indah di sisi kiri dan kanan jalan yang tinggi dan semakin menanjak. detikFinance pun menjumpai sepasang patung yang menjadi ikon bandara ini, yakni patung Presiden Soekarno dan Wakil Presiden Mohammad Hatta. Dua patung ini dipindahkan dari posisinya semula yang berada tepat di pintu masuk area bandara. Setelah melintasi jembatan layang tadi, tiba lah akhirnya tepat di pintu kedatangan Terminal 3Ultimate yang berada di ketinggian. Siapa pun pasti berdecak kagum. Karena dari posisi ini seluruh area bandara tampak begitu jelas, seperti mata ingin melahap seluruh pemandangan yang ada di depannya.
Sebelum masuk ke area bangunan terminal, terlebih dahulu detikFinance dimanjakan dengan pemandangan bangunan Terminal bandara. Bangunan yang sedari jauh sudah tampak modern ini semakin menunjukkan wujud aslinya ketika dihampiri dari dekat. Ornamen atap bernuansa aero dinamis dibalut warna silver hitam membuat kesan modern semakin kental terasa. Untuk memasuki bagian dalam gedung terminal harus melewati jembatan yang mebghubungkan jalan layang tadi dengan terninal bandara. Dari jembatan ini terlihat bagian bawah terminal bandara yang mulai menunjukkan bentuk fisiknya. Tampak sisi ruangan yang bakal dijadikan area pengambilan bagasi. Tampak pula ruangan-ruang luas terbuka yang entah akan dimanfaatkan menjadi apa, namun nuansa megahnya sudah mulai terasa. Memasuki bagian dalam Terminal, rasa kagim semakin tak bisa disembunyikan. Mata langsung dimanjakan dengan pemandangan berupa ruangan luas nan lapang yang begitu unik. Meski dibalut kaca hitam sebagai pelapis dindingnya, ruangan lapang ini sama sekali tak nampak gelap. Rupanya, kaca-kaca yang membalut hapir seluruh sisi luar terminal ini adalah elemen penting yang memungkinkan sinar matahari leluasa masuk dan menerangi seisi ruangan. Warna hitam pada kaca yang terlihat dari luar, rupanya sengaja diterapkan untuk menghalau kesan silau dan meredam panas yang datang bersama matahari. Melihat bagian atas, ada pemandangan unik. Langit-langit terminal tidak dipasangi penutup solid berupa plafon padat yang terbuat dari bahan padat, melainkan membran elastis yang ringan. Membran berwarna abu-abu ini memiliki lapisan yang mengilap. Dipasang sedemikian rupa sehingga membentuk permukaan seperti prisma, membuat lapisan membran ini memiliki fungsi untuk membantu memantulkan cahaya yang masuk melalui celah jendela paling atas membuat distribusi cahaya lebih merata, bahkan tanpa memerlukan bantuan lampu penerangan. Selain itu, membran ini juga memiliki fungsi meredam suara bising mesin pesawat yang bersandar. Dengan strukturnya yang ringan, lapisan ini pun memberikan tingkat keamanan yang maksimal. Karena, bila terjadi guncangan, lapisan atap membran yang jatuh tidak akan melukai orang di bawahnya mengingat bentuknya yang elastis dan ringan.
Beralih ke sisi lain, tampak pula lintasan kereta otomatis tanpa masinis alias Automated Guideway Transit (AGT) sebagai penghubung antar terminal di bandara internasional Soekarno-Hatta. dengan penggunaan AGT ini, Bandara Soekarno Hatta bukan hanya akan memiliki tampilan yang menawan melainkan juga fasilitas yang modern seperti Bandara Changi Singapura. Secara keseluruhan, Terminal Bandara ini tampak menawan. Tak sabar melihat penampakan asli Terminal 3 Ultimate calon saingan Bandara Changi di Singapura ini? Tunggu hingga Mei 2016! (dna/ang) Tangerang detik -PT Angkasa Pura II (AP II) terus mempercepat proses pembangunan Terminal 3 Ultimate Bandara Soekarno-Hatta (Soetta), yang digadang-gadang akan menyaingi Bandara Changi di Singapura. Direktur Utama AP II, Budi Karya Sumadi, mengaku optimistis target yang diberikan Menteri Badan Usaha Milik Negara (BUMN) Rini Soemarno, terminal ini harus beroperasi di awal Mei 2016. “Saat ini progress (perkembangan pembangunan) sudah mencapai 96%. Jadi kalau ditarget Mei Operasi kami optimistis bisa,” ujar Budi, di lokasi proyek pembangunan, Tangerang, Rabu (24/2/2016). Secara fisik, proyek terminal 3 sudah berdiri dengan kokoh. Konstruksi fisik pun tampak megah meski belum selesai dengan sempurna. Pekerjaan yang masih harus diselesaikan adalah pemasangan garbarata alias jembatan penghubung dari terminal bandara menuju pesawat. Bila sudah beroperasi nanti, diharapkan terminal ini dapat meningkatkan kapasitas tampung bandara tersibuk di Indonesia ini. “Terminal 3 Ultimate ini saja bisa 12 juta penumpang per tahun kalau sudah beroperasi nanti, nanti Bandara Soetta makin ramai,” pungkas dia. Sebelumnya, Menteri BUMN, Rini Soemarno menegaskan agar AP II bersama para kontraktor pembangunan Terminal 3 Ultimate Bandara Soetta dapat bekerja ekstra, menuntaskan pembangunan terminal paling anyar tersebut. Bukan hanya menargetkan bisa beroperasi di Awal Mei 2016, Rini juga mengharapkan kualitas layanan yang diberikan terminal ini bisa menyaingi pelayanan yang diberikan bandara ternama di negara lain seperti Changi di Singapura. JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com — Ada yang menarik dari rapat dengar pendapat (RDP) yang digelar Komisi VI Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat (DPR) RI, Senin (22/2/2016). Rapat yang mengagendakan pembahasan kinerja PT Pertamina (Persero) itu berubah menjadi ibarat sirkuit liar. Hal itu tak lain lantaran Pertamina sudah berkomitmen untuk memberikan dukungan pendanaan kepada pebalap muda Rio Haryanto senilai 5 juta euro, atau setara Rp 75 miliar, untuk melaju di Formula 1. Beberapa anggota Dewan menuntut penjelasan direksi Pertamina atas aksi yang dinilai menghambur-hamburkan kocek itu. Seusai sesi pertanyaan, Direktur Utama Pertamina Dwi Soetjipto pun menjelaskan, dukungan kepada Rio merupakan salah satu langkah strategis yang dilakukan perseroan untuk mencapai visi menjadi perusahaan migas nasional berskala dunia atau world class company. “Dan ini bukan CSR, ini masuk biaya marketing,” kata Dwi. Dwi menuturkan, komitmen Pertamina sampai Rio melaju ke F1 menjadi bukti konkret bahwa negara melakukan pembinaan di bidang olahraga, khususnya otomotif. Langkah perseroan itu, ditegaskan Dwi, menunjukkan bahwa negara betul-betul memberikan kesempatan kepada warga negaranya yang berprestasi untuk meningkatkan prestasinya di kancah internasional. Dwi sekaligus menjawab pertanyaan dari Primus Yustisio soal alasan Pertamina tidak mensponsori klub atau atlet luar, sebagaimana yang dilakukan PT Garuda Indonesia (Persero) Tbk yang berkontrak dengan klub sepak bola Liverpool. “Kita lebih mengarah pada anak bangsa yang berprestasi agar dapat memajukan Indonesia, dan meningkatkan nasionalisme di kalangan generasi muda,” terang Dwi. Selain itu, Dwi berharap, dengan partisipasi Rio di ajang F1, maka Indonesia memiliki role model atlet muda berprestasi. “Memang si Rio ini menjadi idola betul bagi anak muda, dan mudah-mudahan ini bisa membangkitkan kebanggaan dan percaya diri anak-anak muda kita,” jelas Dwi. Lebih dari itu, Dwi menjelaskan, keikutsertaan Rio di F1 juga menjadi alat promosi bagi Indonesia di kancah internasional. Sejak 2010 lalu, Pertamina telah membina Rio Haryanto melalui dukungan sponsorship. Dwi bilang, pada tahun 2010 Pertamina telah memberikan dukungan sekitar 1,1 juta euro untuk ajang GP 2 Series. Hasilnya, Rio berhasil naik podium dua kali, dan satu kali menyabet gelar juara. Berikutnya, pada 2011 Pertamina kembali memberikan dukungan senilai yang sama di GP 3 Series. Hasilnya, Rio dua kali menyabet gelar juara dan empat kali naik podium. “Dana untuk Rio ini memang dari program marketing Pertamina, dan sudah dianggarkan sebelumnya. Kan sejak 2010 kita ikut terus. Akhir 2015 kita lihat potensi Rio bisa melaju ke F1. Sumber pendanaannya dari internal Pertamina,” ucap Dwi kepada wartawan seusai rapat. Penulis
: Estu Suryowati
Editor
: M Fajar Marta
TRIBUNNEWS.COM, JAKARTA – Untuk meningkatkan pelayanan transportasi penyeberangan antara Pulau Jawa dan Kalimantan, Kementerian Perhubungan telah membangun Pelabuhan Penyeberangan Kendal (http://www.tribunnews.com/tag/kendal/), di Jawa Tengah dan Pelabuhan Penyeberangan Kumai, di Kalimantan Tengah. Menteri Perhubungan, Ignasius Jonan direncanakan akan meresmikan kedua pelabuhan penyeberangan tersebut pada Minggu (21/2/2016) di Pelabuhan Penyeberangan Kendal (http://www.tribunnews.com/tag/kendal/), Jawa Tengah. Dalam pembangunannya, Kementerian Perhubungan dan Pemerintah Daerah baik Pemerintah Provinsi Jawa Tengah, maupun Pemerintah Kabupaten Kendal (http://www.tribunnews.com/tag/kendal/) dan Pemerintah Kabupaten Kotawaringin Barat melakukan sharing pembiayaan. Sedangkan untuk pengoperasiannya dibiayai oleh Dinas Perhubungan Kabupaten Kendal (http://www.tribunnews.com/tag/kendal/) dan Dinas Perhubungan Kabupaten Kotawaringin Barat. Pembangunan badan Jalan dan break water di Pelabuhan Penyeberangan Kendal (http://www.tribunnews.com/tag/kendal/) dibiayai oleh APBD Kabupaten Kendal (http://www.tribunnews.com/tag/kendal/)sementara pembangunan jalan akses, Sarana Bantu Navigasi Pelayaran (SBNP) dan sebagian perkerasan jalan dibiayai oleh APBD Provinsi Jawa Tengah. “Sedangkan untuk pembangunan dermaga, pekerjaan pengerukan, lanjutan pembangunan break water, dan perkerasan jalan akses dibiayai oleh APBN,” kata juru bicara Kementerian Perhubungan, JA Barata dalam rilisnya, Minggu (21/2/2016). Sementara itu, untuk pembangunan Pelabuhan Penyeberangan Kumai sebagian besar dibiayai oleh APBN, kecuali pekerjaan urugan badan jalan akses sepanjang 6 km dibiayai oleh ABPD Kabupaten Kotawarngin Barat. KMP Kalibodri yang akan melayani lintasan tersebut mempunyai bobot 1.500 GT dengan daya angkut 42 unit kendaraan dan 400 penumpang. Untuk pengoperasian lintasan penyeberangan sepanjang 270 mil, Kementerian Perhubungan memberikan subsidi Rp 4.801.488.000,- selama 6 bulan. Dengan subsidi tersebut, KMP Kalibodri akan melayani lintas Penyeberangan Kendal (http://www.tribunnews.com/tag/kendal/) – Kumai sebanyak 1x PP per minggu. Pengoperasian Pelabuhan Penyeberangan Kendal (http://www.tribunnews.com/tag/kendal/) dan Kumai beserta lintasannya merupakan perwujudan dari fokus kerja Kementerian Perhubungan untuk terus meningkatkan kualitas pelayanan transportasi kepada masyarakat dan meningkatkan kapasitas transportasi di daerah agar terwujud sarana dan prasarana transportasi yang layak bagi masyarakat. Di sisi lain dengan dioperasikannya kedua pelabuhan tersebut diharapkan dapat meningkatkan konektivitas antara Pulau Jawa dengan Pulau Kalimantan karena sebelumnya belum ada prasarana penyeberangan yang menghubungkan kedua daerah tersebut. JAKARTA okezone – PT Angkasa Pura II (Persero) menegaskan kesiapannya mengoperasikan Bandara Pondok Cabe (http://economy.okezone.com/topic/28115/bandara-pondok-cabe), Tangerang Selatan sebagai bandara komersil meskipun dilakukan secara bersamaan dengan Bandara Halim Perdanakusuma, Jakarta Timur. Direktur Utama Angkasa Pura II Budi Karya Sumadi mengatakan, pengoperasian Bandara Pondok Cabe secara komersil dilakukan lantaran telah memiliki pangsa pasar yang cukup besar. Nantinya, bandara tersebut akan lebih diperuntukkan bagi masyarakat yang tinggal di daerah Pamulang dan Bintaro. “Bandara itu untuk orang Bintaro dan Pamulang sudah cukup, penduduknya mungkin lebih dari 1 juta, kita tidak usah ngomongin macet dari Jakarta,” kata Budi di Hotel Pullman, Jakarta, Senin (15/2/2016). Dia mengatakan, Angkasa Pura II (http://economy.okezone.com/topic/1435/angkasa-pura) sampai saat ini belum mendapatkan hasil penelitian kualifikasi bandara yang dimiliki oleh PT Pertamina (Persero). Namun, yang sudah dapat dipastikan, pesawat ATR dan bombardier siap memberikan pelayanan penerbangan di bandara tersebut. Pengoperasian Bandara Pondok Cabe, sambung Budi, akan memitigasi para penumpang yang tempat tinggalnya jauh dari Bandara Internasional Soekarno-Hatta, atau sama seperti halnya pengoperasian Bandara Halim Perdanakusuma. “Itu akan terlokalisasi seperti sekarang di Halim rumahnya di Rawamangun dan Bekasi sudah tidak mau ke Soekarno-Hatta, tapi untuk kami itu baik. Soetta itu kanover loaded, lalu lintasnya juga, ada potensi baru di Jakarta itu bagus untuk kita kembangkan,” tambahnya. Dalam pengoperasiannya, lanjut Budi, nantinya akan ada bagi hasil antara Angkasa Pura II dengan Pertamina. “Pasti karena asetnya Pertamina ada bagi hasil, apa yang dihasilkan ada yang jadi hal Pertamina dan sebagai pengelola kita juga dapat. Tapi kita belum tahu berapa,” tutupnya. Diketahui, pengoperasian Bandara Pondok Cabe ditargetkan pada Maret 2016 yang direncanakan pula melayani rute Lubuk Linggau, Samarinda, Pangkalan Bun, Semarang, Palembang, Tanjung Karang, Ketapang, Yogyakarta, Cilacap, dan Cepu. Bandara Pondok Cabe, Tangerang Selatan memiliki panjang landasan pacu 1.984 meter dengan lebar 45 meter.(rai) (rhs) JAKARTA kontan. Kebijakan Bank Sentral Jepang (BoJ) untuk melakukan suku bunga negatif membuat aliran dana asing masuk ke Indonesia. Banyak investor menyerbu pasar modal di negara-negara emerging market disebabkan kebijakan tersebut. Indonesia terkena imbasnya, sampai dengan pekan lalu dana asing yang masuk ke pasar modal Indonesia sudah mencapai Rp 1,5 triliun. Diprediksi sepanjang tahun ini, asing akan terus mencatatkan arus dana masuk di pasar modal Indonesia. Hans Kwee, Direktur Investa Saran Mandiri mengatakan bahwa faktor kebijakan negara-negara maju terkait negative interest rate membuat dana asing keluar di pasar modal mereka dan masuk ke Indonesia. Investor lebih menyukai pasar Indonesia dengan positive interest rate yang dapat memberikan gain yang cukup menjanjikan bagi mereka. “Saat ini, investor di negara yang interest ratenya rendah malah melakukan pinjaman dana dan bawa ke negata dengan positive interest rate seperti Indonesia,” ujarnya pada KONTAN, Minggu (14/2). Selain itu, Hans bilang penyebab meningkatnya dan asing yang masuk ke Indonesia ini juga adalah pelemahan ekonomi Tiongkok. Perlambatan ini memaksa investor yang selama ini menaruh modalnya disana untuk mencari negara-negara yang lebih menjanjikan. “Tiongkok yang menjadi tujuan investasi besar selama ini kan ekonya melambat. Sehingga investor asing ramai-ramai bergerak ke emerging market yang lain seperti Indonesia,” lanjutnya. Secara jangka menengah dan panjang, dana asing diprediksi akan terus masuk ke pasar modal Indonesia. Hal ini didorong sentimen prositif dalam negeri melalui realisasi program-program pembangunan pemerintah dan kondusifnya pasar modal. “Prospek masuknya dana asing tahun ini masih baik. Amerika setelah kenaikan suku bunga kemarin, juga akan ada kenaikan di bulan Maret ini. Tapi dana asing enggak outflow tuh, malah infllow akibat suku bunga di Jepang dan perlambatan ekonomi Tiongkok,” tutupnya. JAKARTA – Setelah mengunjungi Istana Negara, Presiden Asian Development Bank (ADB) Takehiko Nakao melanjutkan kunjungannya ke kantor Kementerian Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian. Dalam kunjungannya kali ini, Nakao mengapresiasi kinerja pemerintah Indonesia yang dianggap berhasil menjaga stabilitas Rupiah. Selain itu, Nakao juga mengapresiasi keputusan pemerintah untuk membuka diri bagi pihak asing sesuai inti dari paket kebijakan X (http://economy.okezone.com/topic/27075/paket-kebijakan-ekonomi) yang diumumkan Kamis lalu. “Kemarin Indonesia reformasi dalam daftar negatif investasi. Ini adalah pesan yang baik bagi masyarakat internasional,” ujar Nakao saat ditemui di Kantor Kemenko Perekonomian, Jakarta, Jumat (12/2/2016). Melihat kestabilan perekonomian Indonesia (http://economy.okezone.com/topic/27075/paket-kebijakan-ekonomi), ADB mengaku siap apabila Indonesia membutuhkan pinjaman dalam bidang infrastruktur. Sebab, selama lima tahun terakhir ADB secara rutin telah memberikan pinjaman kepada Indonesia. “ADB akan memperluas penyaluran kredit dan pinjaman untuk pemerintah. Tahun lalu adalah USD1,7 miliar. Tahun sebelumnya, dalam lima tahun rata-rata adalah USD700 juta,” tukasnya. (rai) (rhs)
Berita Rekom
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – Pemerintah resmi mengubah Peraturan Presiden Nomor 39 Tahun 2014 tentang daftar negatif investasi. Menurut Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian Darmin Nasution, revisi ini akan selesai dalam waktu sepekan ke depan. “Sekretaris Kabinet akan memeriksanya dan Presiden akan langsung menandatangani,” ucap Darmin di Kantor Presiden, Jakarta, Kamis, 11 Februari 2016. Berikut ini perubahannya: – Kelompok pertama yang tertutup terhadap penanam modal. Ada 20 bidang usaha tertutup. Beberapa di antaranya ialah budidaya ganja, penangkapan spesies ikan terlarang, perjudian, bahan peledak. Tambahan yang baru ialah pemanfaatan koral untuk bahan bangunan atau hiasan aquarium. – Pemerintah menambah 19 bidang usaha yang dicadangkan untuk Usaha Mikro, Kecil, Menengah, dan Koperasi (UMKMK). Ke-19 bidang usaha itu tercakup dalam kegiatan jenis usaha jasa bisnis/jasa konsultasi, konstruksi yang menggunakan teknologi sederhana dengan nilai pekerjaan kurang dari Rp 10 miliar. – Ada 39 bidang usaha yang dicadangkan untuk UMKMK yang diperluas nilai pekerjaanya, dari Rp 1 miliar menjadi Rp 50 miliar. Kegiatan itu mencakup jenis usaha jasa konstruksi, seperti pekerjaan konstruksi untuk bangunan komersial, bangunan sarana kesehatan, dan lain-lain. – PP mengatur reklasifikasi bidang usaha. Misalnya 19 bidang usaha jasa bisnis/jasa konsultasi konstruksi dijadikan 1 jenis usaha. Jadi bidang usaha yang dicadangkan untuk UMKMK menjadi 92 usaha dari sebelumnya 139 usaha. – Bidang usaha kemitraan dengan UMKMK agar ada Penanaman Modal Dalam Negeri (PMDN) dan Penanaman Modal Asing (PMA) bertambah 62 bidang usaha dari semula 48 bidang usaha. Total menjadi 110 bidang usaha. Contohnya, usaha benih perkebunan dengan luas 25 hektare atau lebih. – Sebanyak 35 bidang usaha yang dikeluarkan dari DNI. Mereka adalah industri crumb rubber; cold storage; pariwisata (restoran; bar; kafe; usaha rekreasi, seni, dan hiburan: gelanggang olah raga); industri perfilman; penyelenggara transaksi perdagangan secara elektronik (market place) yang bernilai Rp.100 milyar ke atas; pembentukan lembaga pengujian perangkat telekomunikasi; pengusahaan jalan tol; pengelolaan dan pembuangan sampah yang tidak berbahaya; industri bahan baku obat. – Penghapusan rekomendasi pada 83 bidang usaha, seperti hotel (Non Bintang, Bintang Satu, Bintang Dua); Motel; Usaha Rekreasi, Seni, dan Hiburan; Biliar, Bowling, dan Lapangan Golf. – Revisi DNI membuka 20 bidang usaha untuk asing dari yang sebelumnya menjadi 100 persen. Bidang usaha itu jasa pelayanan penunjang kesehatan (67 persen), angkutan orang dengan moda darat (49 persen); industri perfilman termasuk peredaran film (100 persen); instalasi pemanfaatan tenaga listrik tegangan tinggi/ekstra tinggi (49 persen). Perubahan komposisi saham PMA dalam DNI adalah: 1. 30 persen sebanyak 32 bidang usaha. Antara lain budi daya hortikultura, perbenihan hortikulutura. Tidak berubah karena mandat undang-undang. 2. 33 persen sebanyak tiga bidang usaha, yaitu distributor dan pergudangan meningkat menjadi 67 persen, serta cold storage meningkat menjadi 100 persen. 3. 49 persen sebanyak 54 bidang usaha. Sebanyak 14 bidang usaha meningkat menjadi 67 persen (seperti: pelatihan kerja, biro perjalanan wisata, lapangan golf, jasa penunjang angkutan udara); dan delapan bidang usaha meningkat menjadi 100 persen (seperti: sport center, laboratorium pengolahan film, industri crumb rubber, dan sebagainya); serta 32 bidang usaha tetap 49 persen, seperti fasilitas pelayanan akupuntur. 4. 51 persen sebanyak 18 bidang usaha. Sebanyak 10 bidang usaha meningkat menjadi 67 persen (seperti museum swasta, jasa boga, jasa konvensi, pameran dan perjalanan insentif); satu bidang usaha meningkat menjadi 100 persen, yaitu restoran; lalu tujug bidang usaha tetap 51 persen, seperti pengusahaan pariwisata alam. 5. 55 persen sebanyak 19 bidang usaha. Semua bidang usaha meningkat menjadi 67 persen. Meliputi jasa bisnis/jasa konsultansi konstruksi dengan nilai pekerjaan di atas Rp 10 miliar. 6. 65 persen sebanyak tiga bidang usaha. Tiga bidang usaha meningkat menjadi 67 persen, seperti penyelenggaraan jaringan telekomunikasi yang terintegrasi dengan jasa telekomunikasi. 7. 85 persen sebanyak delapan bidang usaha. Satu bidang usaha meningkat menjadi 100 persen persen, yaitu industri bahan baku obat; Lalu 7 bidang usaha lainnya tetap karena amanat Undang-undang, yaitu sewa guna usaha. 8. 95 persen sebanyak 17 bidang usaha. Sebanyak lima bidang usaha meningkat menjadi 100 persen (meliputi: pengusahaan jalan tol, pembentukan lembaga pengujian perangkat telekomunikasi/tes laboratorium); 12 bidang usaha tetap 95 persen karena perintah Undang-undang seperti usaha perkebunan dengan luas 25 hektare atau lebih yang teritegrasi dengan unit pengolahan dengan kapasitas sama atau melebihi kapasitas tertentu. ADITYA BUDIMAN Bisnis.com, NUSA DUA – Paket kebijakan ekonomi jilid X yang diterbitkan pada Kamis (11/2/2016) berfokus pada perluasan lapangan kerja dan menopang pertumbuhan ekonomi. Wakil Presiden Jusuf Kalla mengatakan pemerintah akan membuka kesempatan lebih besar kepada masyarakat untuk mencapai kesejahteraan. Di tengah maraknya aksi pemutusan hubungan kerja (PHK) saat ini, pemerintah berupaya menanggulangi meningkatnya pengangguran dengan berbagai program strategis dan peraturan yang mendukung dalam paket kebijakan tersebut. “Pokoknya kita membuka lebih banyak kesempatan untuk lapangan kerja, semua tujuannya adalah meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi,” paparnya seusai menghadiri pembukaan Bali Clean Energy Forum 2016 di Nusa Dua, Bali, Kamis (11/2/216). Hari ini, pemerintah mengumumkan rincian poin-poin perubahan kebijakan pendukung ekonomi dalam paket kebijakan jilid kesepuluh di Istana Presiden. Dalam pemberitaan sebelumnya dijelaskan, hampir semua jenis usaha dalam daftar negatif investasi (DNI) berubah. Investasi asing dibuka lebih lebar. Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian Darmin Nasution mengatakan revisi DNI telah rampung. Perubahan terjadi hampir di seluruh jenis usaha yang diatur dalam Perpres No. 39/2014 tentang Daftar Bidang Usaha yang Tertutup dan Bidang Usaha yang Terbuka dengan Persyaratan di Bidang Penanaman Modal berubah. Dia menjelaskan revisi DNI bakal masuk dalam paket ekonomi X. Draf dari Menko Perekonomian telah dibahas dalam sidang kabinet yang dipimpin Presiden Joko Widodo Rabu (10/2). JAKARTA ID– Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional (Bappenas) memprediksi realisasi pertumbuhan ekonomi 2015 bisa mencapai 4,8% (year on year/yoy) dengan dorongan utama dari belanja pemerintah di sisa tahun, dan pemulihan konsumsi masyarakat. Menurut Direktur Keuangan Negara dan Analisa Moneter Kementerian PPN/Bappenas Sidqy LP Suyitno di Jakarta, Selasa, konsumsi rumah tangga sudah pulih didorong inflasi yang terkendali dan stimulus dari belanja pemerintah pada akhir triwulan III dan sepanjang triwulan IV 2015. “Dari daerah juga disumbang pencairan anggaran Dana Desa telah menstimulus konsumsi,” kata Sidqy. Adapun, angka resmi pertumbuhan ekonomi 2015 akan dirilis Badan Pusat Statistik pada Februari 2016 ini. Menurut Sidqy, pertumbuhan konsumsi rumah tangga di triwulan IV bisa kembali di atas 5,0% seperti pada tren-tren pada tahun sebelumnya, setelah pada penghujung semester I 2015 konsumsi rumah tangga tertekan ke 4,9%. Pendorong pertumbuhan lainnya, ujar Sidqy, adalah realisasi belanja pemerintah di dua triwulan terakhir pada 2015. Menurutnya, melajunya realisasi belanja pemerintah telah memulihkan aliran investasi di triwulan III dan IV. Sidqy menambahkan, pemerintah, dalam hal ini Kementerian Keuangan di sisa tahun 2015, telah mengendalikan belanja anggaran untuk dicairkan pada sektor-sektor produktif yang bisa mendorong laju perekonomian. Hal itu juga dilakukan dengan pengendalian revisi anggaran Kementerian/Lembaga agar tidak ada pencairan anggaran untuk sektor konsumtif yang semata-mata hanya ingin mengejar realisasi anggaran. “Makanya kita bisa lihat belanja pemerintah akan mendorong di pertumbuhan ekonomi 2015,” kata dia. Sementara untuk kontribusi ekspor, Sidqy mengakui andilnya tidak akan signifikan karena masih terkendala lesunya harga komoditi. Adapun laju pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia di kuartal pertama sebesar 4,71%, kuartal kedua 4,67% dan kuartal ketiga 4,73%. Bank Indonesia juga memperkirakan ekonomi Indonesia akan tumbuh 4,8% sepanjang 2015. Sebelumnya, Deputi Gubernur BI Perry Warjiyo mengatakan, stimulus dari kebijakan makroprudensial berupa pelonggaran Loan To Value (LTV) untuk Kredit Pemilikan Rumah (KPR), apartemen, dan kendaraan bermotor juga telah berkontribusi untuk memulihkan perekonomian. Selain itu, BI juga melakukan penurunan Giro Wajib Minumum-Primer untuk menambah likuiditas perbankan. “BI perkirakan 4,8% untuk keseluruhan 2015,” kata Perry. (ant/gor) TEMPO.CO, Surabaya – PT PAL Indonesia meluncurkan kapal Perusak Kawal Rudal (PKR) -1 dan Kapal Perang Strategic Sealift Vessel (SSV)-1 pesanan Kementerian Pertahanan Filipina. Ini menjadi kapal perang pertama yang diekspor pemerintah Indonesia. Pengerjaan konstruksi kedua kapal tersebut dimenangkan melalui tender internasional. “Untuk keseluruhan konstruksi SSV-1 dilakukan di PT PAL,” ujar Direktur Utama PT PAL Indonesia (Persero) M. Firmansyah di Dermaga Semarang Divisi Kapal Niada, Tanjung Perak Surabaya, Senin, 18 Januari 2016 PKR-1 merupakan kapal perang canggih kelas Frigate hasil kerja sama PT PAL dengan galangan kapal Belanda, Damen Schelde Naval Shipbuilding (DSNS) melalui mekanisme Transfer of Technology (TOT). Sedangkan kapal SSV-1 berada di kelas Lloyd Register buatan PT PAL sendiri. “Untuk kapal SSV menjadi kapal perang perdana yang diekspor Indonesia, dan merupakan pengakuan negara lain terhadap kecanggihan kapal ini,” kata dia. Firmansyah menjelaskan, setelah diluncurkan kapal PKR-1 akan melalui proses penyempurnaan sebelum diserahterimakan kepada Kementerian Pertahanan RI pada Januari 2017. Sedangkan Kapal SSV juga akan menjalani penyempurnaan sebelum diserahkan kepada Kementerian Pertahanan Filipina pada Mei 2016. Sebelumnya, telah dilakukan uji model laboratorium hidrodinamika untuk memperoleh desain kapal dengan kemampuan terbaik. “Untuk selanjutnya kapal SSV-1 akan memasuki fase penyelesaian, testing, dan sea trial sebelum dikirim ke Filipina.” Nilai pesanan kapal negara Filipina itu bernilai total US$ 90 juta. Selain peluncuran kapal PKR-1 dan SV-1, juga dilakukan peletakkan lunas pesanan tahap kedua kapal SSV-2. Juga penamaan kapal SSV-1 menjadi TARLAC. TARLAC merupakan nama provinsi dari kelahiran Presiden Filipina saat itu, Benigno Simeon Aquino. Beberapa menteri dan pejabat penting turut hadir, seperti Menteri Koordinator Kemaritiman dan Sumber Daya Rizal Ramli, Menteri Pertahanan Ryamizard Ryacudu, Panglima Tentara Nasional Filipina, Jendral Hernando DCA Iriberri. Juga CEO DSNS, Mr. Henvan Mr. Hein van Ameijden, KSAL Filipina dan KSAL Indonesia, Laksamana TNI Ade Supandi. ARTIKA RACHMI FARMITA Jakarta beritasatu – Keputusan pemerintah melakukanbailout atau dana talangan untuk penyelamatan perbankan nasional dari kehancuran pada krisis keuangan 1998 memicu kesenjangan ekonomi sosial serius. Tindakan bailout yang diberikan kepada perbankan justru melahirkan orang kaya baru dan memperbesar jarak mereka dengan rakyat miskin dan hampir miskin yang jumlahnya besar. “Ke depan, takkan ada lagi bailout yang menguras fiskal kita. Saat ini, dana APBN dimaksimalkan digunakan untuk mendorong pertumbuhan dan pemerataan ekonomi,” ujar Wakil Presiden (Wapres) Jusuf Kalla pada Pertemuan Tahunan Pelaku Jasa Keuangan 2016 di Hotel Kempinski Indonesia, Jakarta, Jumat (15/1). Selain tuan rumah Ketua Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK) Muliaman D Hadad dan Deputi OJK, hadir pula Gubernur Bank Indonesia Agus Martowardojo, Menteri Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional/Kepala Bappenas Sofyan Djalil dan para pelaku industri jasa keunagan. Dana APBN, kata Wapres, akan digunakan untuk membangun infrastruktur, meningkatkan dana desa dan kredit usaha rakyat (KUR). Uang negara juga digunakan untuk mensubsidi rakyat miskin. Sedang kebijakan fiskal diarahkan untuk menggerakkan dunia usaha. Pada masa akan datang, kalau ada bank yang bangkrut, pemerintah takkan membantu dengan dana APBN. Karena itu, para pengelola lembaga keuangan harus menjalankan tugas dengan baik. Bekerja dengan profesional dan mencegah berbagai tindakan yang merugikan lembaga keuangan yang dipimpin. “Kalau bank Anda bermasalah tanggung sendiri, pemerintah takkan (beri) bailout,” ungkap Kalla. Krisis keuangan 1998 menyebabkan puluhan bank rontok akibat besarnya kredit bermasalah dan modal merosot hingga minus. Khawatir penutupan bank berakibat sistemik — meruntuhkan seluruh institusi keuangan — pemerintah melakukan bailout dengan melakukan rekapitalisasi hingga di atas Rp 500 triliun. Modal minus dipulihkan hingga mencapai rasio kecukupan modal (capital adequacy ratio/CAR) minimal 8% dengan menyuntikkan dana lewat penerbitan obligasi rekap. Pada sisi aset bank yang direkap tercatat obligasi pemerintah. Bunga obligasi diterima bank setiap bulan dari dana APBN. Hingga kini, beban negara untuk membayar obligasi rekap belum tuntas. Setelah mendapat dana rekap, dan sebelumnya, bank-bank bermasalah mendapatkan Bantuan Likuiditas Bank Indonesia (BLBI), para pemilik bank bangkit dan berjaya. Wapres mengatakan, mereka maju pesat karena dana APBN. Akibat beban obligasi rekap, dana APBN untuk rakyat kecil terambil. “Kejadian dan kebijakan seperti ini tak boleh terjadi,” ujarnya.
Saat ini, kata Kalla, 1% keluarga kaya menguasai lebih dari 50% aset nasional. Kondisi kesenjangan ini sudah mengkhawatirkan. Ia mengimbau OJK untuk benarbenar mengawal implementasi financial inclusion, yakni akses pendanaan yang lebih luas bagi rakyat kecil. Rakyat harus bisa menabung dan meminjam uang dari bank. Bunga Tinggi Mengucapkan terimakasih kepada Gubernur BI yang sudah menurunkan BI rate, Wapres menilai suku bunga di Indonesia masih tinggi. “Semua negara maju dan negara yang sukses menjadi negara maju itu memberikan bunga rendah. Perbankan di Indonesia juga harus memberikan bunga rendah,” pinta Wapres. Jika bunga tetap tinggi, demikian Kalla, investasi tidak maju. Investasi langsung maupun investasi portofio akan berjalan di tempat. Jika bunga tinggi, biaya dana memberatkan perusahaan. Harga barang yang dihasilkan sulit kompetitif. Pasar saham juga takkan maju karena pemilik dana memilih menyimpan uang di bank daripada investasi di saham. “Pasar modal akan bergerak kalau bunga bank rendah. Hanya pada saat bunga bank rendah, pemilik dana menggeser uangnya investasi dengan membeli saham,” kata Kalla. Ia mengimbau orang kaya yang kini mendominasi deposito perbankan untuk memilih kerja keras daripada hanya hidup dari beternak uang di bank. Wapres menegaskan, ekonomi ke depan akan lebih baik jika OJK, BI, dan masyarakat keuangan memberikan kontribusi riil. Dari sisi keamanan dan politik, pemerintah sudah mencapai stabilitas. “Aksi teror hari Kamis di Jakarta diatasi dalam waktu tiga jam. Setelah itu, orang beramai-ramai ke lokasi kejadian tanpa rasa takut. Mereka bukan menghindar malah mendekat dan foto-foto di tempat kejadian. Ini aneh, tapi itu menunjukkan bahwa masyarakat sudah kembali merasa aman,” paparnya. Di bidang politik, satu per satu partai oposisi meninggalkan posisinya. “Ini juga aneh. Di negara lain, oposisi makin banyak, di sini, oposisi makin kurang. Nah, jika ekonomi berjalan baik, bertumbuh lebih cepat dan merata, kemajuan dan keadilan akan tercapai,” pungkas Kalla. Primus Dorimulu/HA BeritaSatu.com JAKARTA kontan. Banyak calon wisatawan mancanegara khususnya dari Eropa yang bertanya mengenai situasi Jakarta pasca ledakan bom di kawasan Sarinah Jakarta, Kamis (14/1/2016). Mereka datang ke paviliun Indonesia di pameran pariwisata Vakantiebeurs yang berlangsung 12-17 Januari 2016 di Utreach Belanda. Deputy Director untuk Promosi Wilayah Eropa Kementerian Pariwisata RI, Maria Mayabubun, Jumat (15/1/2016), mengatakan dalam pameran Vakantiebeurs, Indonesia mengandeng 10 tour operator atau travel agent, tiga hotel, maskapai penerbangan Garuda Indonesia dan Disbudpar Provinsi Maluku. Sementara itu Sifa dan Robert Feddes, travel agent Indonesia yang ada di Belanda mengakui bahwa mereka mendapat pengarahan kalau ada pertanyaan dari tamu mengenai bom di Jakarta dapat memberikan info bahwa Indonesia aman. Negara Belanda pun tidak mengeluarkan peringatan tanda bahaya untuk mengadakan perjalanan ke Indonesia bagi warganya yang ingin berwisata ke Indonesia. Dalam pameran pariwisata Vakantiebeurs, Kementerian Pariwisata menampilkan kesenian untuk mendukung promosi pariwisata di antaranya kolaborasi Kendang dari Yogyakarta dengan Sasando dari Kupang dan dua penari dari Jakarta. Salah satu dari penari membawakan beberapa lagu dari Benyamin S dan Ida Royani seperti lagu “Ujan Gerimis”, “Abang Pulang” dan “Tarian” yang ditampilkan di antaranya tarian dari Jakarta dan Kalimantan. Bisnis.com, JAKARTA–Kondisi Ekonomi sosial Indonesia dinilai sedang berada di puncak ketimpangan ekonomi sosial sehingga perlu adanya upaya perubahan signifikan. Hal itu disampaikan Wakil Presiden Jusuf Kalla dalam Orasi Ilmiah Dies Natalis Ke-18 Universitas Paramadina, Rabu(13/1/2016). “Kalau baca soal analisa keadaan ekonomi sosial, kita berada dalam puncak ketimpangan,”ujar Kalla dalam kuliah bersama di Universitas Paramadina, Rabu(13/1/2016). Dalam rasio indeks gini dapat ditafsirkan, 1% penduduk memiliki hingga 50% aset di Indonesia. Padahal dulu porsi kepemilikan aset kalangan menengah ke atas sebesar 30%. Untuk itu, para ilmuan muda diminta melakukan perubahan untuk mengurangi ketimpangan ekonomi sosial. Jika tidak segera diperbaiki, tentu akan berakibat buruk terhadap kemajuan bangsa. Salah satu cara mengurangi ketimpangan sosial ialah dengan berupaya membangun ekonomi bersama, terutama melalui inovasi dan teknologi seta semangat berwirausaha. “Jangan ributkan 1% tapi menaikkan 99% lain. Kelompok 1% beri lapangan kerja, 99% lain harus dapat kue lebih besar,”sebutnya. JAKARTA kontan. Meski Pemerintah Indonesia mengundang semua investor global untuk ikut mengerjakan mega proyek 35.000 megawatt, nyatanya mayoritas proyek dimenangkan perusahaan asal China. Unit Percepatan Pembangunan Pengendalian Ketenagalistrikan Nasional (UPK3N) yang dibentuk Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) mendata, bahwa perusahaan yang sudah melakukan perjanjian jual beli ketenagalistrikan atau power purchase agrement (PPA) sekitar 14.500 MW didominasi perusahaan asal China. Anggota UPK3N Agung Wicaksono menyebut penentuan investor ini merupakan kewenangan PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), baik dalam melakukan lelang maupun penunjukan langsung. “Kami belum mengetahui detilnya,” kata Agung kepada KONTAN, Rabu (13/1). Dalam catatan KONTAN, beberapa proyek setrum yang digarap konsorsium China adalah Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Uap (PLTU) Jawa 7 berkapasitas 2 x 1.000 MW. Kemudian pembangkit ekspansi PLTU Cilacap 1×1000 MW, dan PLTU Kalimantan Barat 2 x 100 MW. “Nah yang PLTU Jawa 7 itu harganya murah, hanya 4,2 sen per kilo Watt hour (kWh),” urainya. Agung menyebut, dari proses pelelangan yang dilakukan PLN banyak investor memilh tak ikut. Penyebabnya persyaratan dalam tender terlalu sulit dipenuhi. Misalnya, dana setoran jaminan yang cukup besar dan peserta tender wajib memasukan penjaminan 45 hari sebelum lelang. “Ini membuat complain. Ada keluhan dari Pemerintah Jepang yang membuat perusahaan Jepang tidak sepakat dengan mekanisme lelang tersebut,” kata Agung. Ini pula yang membuat perusahaan-perusahaan asal Jepang ogah investasi ketenagalistrikan yang kini digelar oleh PLN. “Untuk lelang saat ini, Jepang banyak yang tidak mau ikut,” tandasnya. Meskipun begitu, ada juga beberapa perusahaan Jepang yang lolos dalam kualifikasi tender. Misalnya ekspansi Pembangkit Listrik Tenaga Uap (PLTU) Cirebon berkapasitas 1.000 MW dengan kontraktor Indika Energy bermitra dengan Marubeni Jepang. Sayangnya Direktur Utama PT PLN Sofyan Basir belum merespon telepon dan pesan singkat KONTAN untuk menanggapi aturan lelang yang dikeluhkan oleh Jepang ini. ESDM tak bisa campuri Direktur Pembinaan Program Ketenagalistrikan Kementerian ESDM Alihuddin Sitompul mengatakan, sesuai dengan Peraturan Menteri No 3 Tahun 2015 Tentang Prosedur Pembelian Tenaga Listrik dan Harga Patokan Pembelian Tenaga Listrik dari PLTU Mulut Tambang, PLTU Batubara, PLTG atau PLTMG dan PLTA oleh PT PLN melalui pemilihan dan penunjukan langsung. Karena itu, PLN bisa membuat mekanisme lelang sendiri. Pemerintah tidak bisa ikut campur dalam prosesnya. “Pemerintah tidak bisa mencampuri urusan lelang itu, kalau memang banyak pembangkit milik perusahaan China yang menang, kalau mereka berkompeten ya tidak apa-apa,” katanya kepada KONTAN, Rabu (13/1). Ia membenarkan ada beberapa perusahaan China yang mendominasi dalam PPA 14.500 MW. Tapi sayangnya ia enggan menjelaskan lebih rinci dengan alasan tidak mengetahui lebih detil. “Tanyakan ke PLN,” katanya. Ia berharap sisa proyek yakni sebesar 21.500 MW bisa diselesaikan perjanjian jual belinya pada tahun 2016 ini sehingga proyek listrik bisa selesai tahun 2019. JAKARTA ID-Menurut hasil jajak pendapat yang dirilis Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC), mayoritas rakyat masih percaya dengan kepemimpinan Presiden Joko Widodo (Jokowi), dan bahkan tingkat approval rating ini jauh meningkat dibandingkan survei yang sama enam bulan sebelumnya. “Perlahan tapi pasti, pemerintahan Jokowi berhasil merebut kembali kepercayaan masyarakat. Di akhir tahun 2015, mayoritas warga atau 63% sangat atau cukup yakin bahwa Presiden Jokowi mampu memimpin Indonesia menjadi lebih baik ke depan,” ungkap Direktur Utama SMRC, Djayadi Hanan dalam presentasinya di kantor SMRC, Cikini, Menteng, Jakarta, Selasa (12/1). “Perkembangan ini menunjukkan kenaikan signfikan dibandingkan enam bulan sebelumnya yaitu 55%,” tambahnya. Dalam hasil survei yang terangkum dalam laporan berjudul “Menjadi Lebih Presidensial di 2016, Harapan Publik Nasional”, Djayadi mengungkapkan bahwa beragam indikator yang digunakan menunjukkan tingginya tingkat kepercayaan masyarakat terhadap Jokowi. Terlepas dari berbagai masalah yang dihadapi pemerintah, tingkat kepercayaan pada Presiden Jokowi mampu memimpin bangsa ini tetap tinggi dan umumnya warga optimis dan puas dengan kemampuan leadership presiden. Secara umum, warga menilai bahwa bangsa ini sedang berjalan ke arah yang benar (72%). Sentimen positif ini tertinggi dalam lima tahun terakhir. Hasil survei Oktober lalu misalnya menunjukkan angka itu baru mencapai 60%. “Ini merupakan modal politik massa yang sangat penting,” kata Djayadi dalam presentasinya. Keyakinan akan kemampuan Jokowi ini memang tidak disertai dengan keyakinan publik akan kualitas para menteri. Penilaian pada kinerja kabinet secara umum hampir terbelah. Sebagian besar (51%) merasa puas, sisanya kurang puas atau tidak punya pendapat. “Ini mengindikasikan perlunya presiden meningkatkan kinerja menteri-menterinya di tahun 2016 dan tahun-tahun berikutnya,” ujar Djayadi. Survei juga menunjukkan bahwa Jokowi diharapkan lebih mandiri dalam memimpin. Ini ditunjukkan dengan fakta bahwa mayoritas warga menghendaki Jokowi memimpin sendiri koalisinya (61,5%). Mayoritas warga (hampir 70%) juga menganggap perlunya sekretariat gabungan/bersama untuk koalisi. Menurut Djayadi, keinginan ini bisa dipahami menganggap Jokowi masih harus terus berusaha mendapat dukungan mayoritas suara di parlemen. “Menambah anggota koalisi hingga menjadi kekuatan mayoritas di DPR diperlukan,” kata Jayadi. Optimisme masyarakat terlihat di banyak bidang. Survei SMRC menunjukkan warga menilai positif kondisi ekonomi rumah tangga dan nasional. Yang menyatakan kondisi ekonomi rumah tangga sekarang lebih baik dibanding tahun lalu mencapai hampir 40% sementara yang mengatakan lebih buruk hanya 23%. Lebih jauh lagi, hampir 70% percaya kondisi ekonomi rumah tangga akan lebih baik pada satu tahun mendatang; sementara yang mengatakan lebih buruk hanya 5%. “Yang dianggap sebagai masalah ekonomi mendesak adalah harga-harga kebutuhan pokok, pengangguran, lapangan kerja, juga pemerataan pendapatan. Namun di sisi lain, masyarakat memuji apa yang dilakukan pemerintah dalam hal kesehatan, pendidikan, dan pembangunan jalan-jalan raya,” papar dia. Sementara itu, kondisi politik pada akhir 2015 secara umum dinilai “sedang”, tidak baik ataupun tidak buruk. Tapi dibanding 3 bulan lalu, jumlah warga yang menilai kondisi politik sekarang baik lebih banyak. Yang agak bermasalah adalah evaluasi masyarakat soal kondisi keamanan. Walau secara umum kondisi keamanan dinilai baik, namun ada cukup tinggi persentase masyarakat (31%) yang menganggap Indonesia kurang aman dari ancama terorisme.(B1) JAKARTA kontan. Penerimaan pajak negara bertambah sebesar Rp 5,24 triliun setelah Direktorat Jenderal Pajak melakukan rekonsiliasi atau penyesuaian data transaksi keuangan sepanjang 2015 hingga 10 Januari 2016. Menurut Menteri Keuangan Bambang Brodjonegoro di Jakarta, Senin, tambahan tersebut berasal dari pajak penghasilan (PPh) nonmigas. Tambahan ini membuat total penerimaan pajak 2015 menjadi Rp 1.060,85 triliun (sebelumnya sampai 31 Desember 2015 berjumlah Rp 1.055,61 triliun), di mana non PPh migas menyumbang Rp 1.011,13 triliun di antaranya. “Tidak seluruh penerimaan pajak bisa masuk dan terekam sampai 31 Desember 2015 oleh Sistem Perbendaharaan dan Anggaran Negara (SPAN), karena itulah dilakukan rekonsiliasi sampai Minggu (10/1) dan bisa bertambah sekitar Rp5 triliun,” ujar Bambang dalam konferensi pers di Kantor DJP, Jakarta, Senin (11/1). Namun dengan jumlah tersebut, pemerintah tetap belum bisa memenuhi target penerimaan pajak pada 2015 yaitu Rp 1.294 triliun. Bambang mengapresiasi kinerja DJP yang berhasil meraup pendapatan pajak non PPh migas melewati Rp 1.000 triliun pada tahun 2015.
Jumlah ini meningkat 12,05% dari tahun 2014, yang realisasi non pph migas-nya adalah Rp 897,69 triliun. Persentase tersebut juga lebih tinggi dari peningkatan tahun 2013 (Rp752 triliun) ke 2014 (832,65 triliun) yang “hanya” 7,81%. Pelaksana tugas (Plt) Direktur Jenderal Pajak Kementerian Keuangan Ken Dwijugiasteadi mengatakan prestasi tersebut bisa diukir karena pihaknya rutin mengadakan pertemuan dengan para wajib pajak di akhir tahun 2015. Sebagai informasi, “penerimaan (pendapatan) pajak” berbeda dengan “penerimaan perpajakan” dan “penerimaan negara”. Penerimaan pajak hanya dilakukan oleh DJP dan meliputi PPh Nonmigas, PPh Migas, Pajak Pertambahan Nilai (PPN) dan Pajak Penjualan Atas Barang Mewah (PPnBM), Pajak Bumi dan Bangunan (PBB) serta pajak lainnya. Sementara penerimaan perpajakan adalah gabungan pajak dari DJP dengan bea dan cukai dari Direktorat Jenderal Bea dan Cukai (DJBC), yang nilainya sampai 31 Desember 2015 adalah Rp 1.235,80 triliun. Penerimaan atau pendapatan negara adalah total seluruh pemasukan negara baik dari pajak (dilakukan oleh DJP dan DJBC) maupun nonpajak (seperti pendapatan Badan Layanan Umum/BLU dan hibah) dan sampai 31 Desember 2015 besarannya adalah Rp 1.491,5 triliun. “Perbedaan ini perlu dipahami,” kata Menkeu. Bambang melanjutkan, penerimaan pajak pada tahun 2015 juga dipengaruhi oleh paket kebijakan ekonomi kelima yang memberikan pengurangan tarif pajak bagi wajib pajak yang melakukan revaluasi aktiva tetap. “Pajak yang diperoleh dari revaluasi ini mencapai Rp 20,14 triliun,” tutur dia. TEMPO.CO, Jakarta – Menteri Keuangan Bambang Brodjonegoro mengatakan realisasi penerimaan pajak per 31 Desember 2015 sebesar Rp 1.055,61 triliun. Nilai ini Bertumbuh 7,15 persen dibandingkan 2014 yang sebesar 6,92 persen.
“Pajak yang dikumpulkan ini tidak mudah karena kondisi perlambatan ekonomi yang otomatis berdampak pada penerimaan pajak. Pajak ini turunan pertumbuhan ekonomi,” kata Bambang di Kantor Pusat Direktorat Jenderal Pajak, Jakarta, Senin, 11 Januari 2016. Di sisi penerimaan pajak non migas, Bambang mengatakan terjadi pertumbuhan penerimaan pajak 12,05 persen, naik dari tahun sebelumnya 7,81 persen. “Artinya di tengah perlambatan ekonomi 2015 pertumbuhan pajak mencapai 12 persen,” kata dia. Di sisi penerimaan Pajak Penghasilan migas mengalami pertumbuhan negatif 43,14 persen. Menurut Bambang, ini disebabkan rendahnya harga minya dunia. “Kalau pph migas tumbuhnya negatif karena ada keterlambatan lifting minyak dan gas,” ujar Bambang. Bambang mengatakan realisasi penerimaan pajak per 31 Desember menjadi Rp 1055,61 triliun. “Ini pertama kalinya penerimaan pajak mencapai di atas Rp 1.000 triliun. Ini murni 100 persen kerjanya DJP,” kata dia. Bambang mengatakan hasil penerimaan ini lebih besar dari 2014 dengan realisasi Rp 985,13 triliun. Peningkatannya 7,8 persen dari tahun sebelumnya. “Artinya ada upaya ekstra sehingga penerimaan bisa lebih besar,” kata dia. “Tentunya ini ditolong juga dengan adanya revaluasi aset. Paket revaluasi bisa mendatangkan Rp 20 triliun pada 2015,” kata dia lagi. ARKHELAUS W Liputan6.com, Jakarta Siapa sangka merek-merek pakaian terkenal yang mendunia sebagian dibuat di Indonesia. Anak bangsa kini kini juga punya andil besar pada produksi baju merek terkenal seperti Adidas, Nike, North Face, Uniiqlo, dan lainnya. Produk tekstil berlabel made in Indonesia kini tak lagi bisa dipandang sebelah mata. Adalah PT Pan Brothers Tbk, salah satu pabrik yang punya klien merek-merek terkenal di dunia tersebut. Pan Brothers yang berdiri sejak 1980-an sudah banyak memproduksi produk garmen alias pakaian jadi yang tersebar hampir di seluruh dunia. Wakil Presiden Direktur Pan Brothers, Anne Patricia S mengatakan, produk yang dihasilkan Pan Borthers tak dijual di pasar lokal. Hampir seluruhnya produk yang dihasilkan pabrik di Tangerang ini diekspor. “Produk garmen kita 99 persen ekspor. Merek yang kita hasilkan seperti Adidas, North Face, Salomon, ada juga merek Jepang,” kata Anne kala berbincang dengan Liputan6.com beberapa waktu lalu di kantornya. Anne juga mengatakan, barang-barang asli buatan Tangerang ini terbang ke seluruh dunia, tempat tujuan ekspor dari merek-merek tersebut. “Bisa ke Amerika, Eropa, Asia, juga Pasifik. Itu tergantung dari brand, mereka inginnya kita kirim ke negara mana,” kata dia. Jakarta detik-Pemerintah mencatat, realisasi belanja negara (sementara) mencapai Rp 1.810 triliun atau 91,2% dari pagu dalam Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara Perubahan (APBNP) 2015 sebesar Rp 1.984,1 triliun, utamanya dialokasikan pada sektor produktif, khususnya infrastruktur dan program kesejahteraan sosial. “Kondisi fiskal 2015 dalam situasi yang aman sehingga stabilitas perekonomian terjaga dengan baik secara berkesinambungan,” ungkap Menteri Keuangan Bambang Brodjonegoro dalam siaran persnya yang diterimadetikFinance, Minggu (3/1/2016). Bambang menjelaskan, realisasi anggaran transfer ke Daerah dan Dana Desa (sementara) tahun 2015 mencapai Rp 623 triliun atau sebesar 93,7% dari pagu dalam APBNP 2015 sebesar Rp 664,6 triliun, di mana anggaran dana desa yang mulai dialokasikan mulai 2015 sebesar Rp 20,8 triliun telah disalurkan seluruhnya. Program dana desa ini sangat penting untuk mendorong aktivitas ekonomi di daerah dan mendukung pemerataan pembangunan. Sementara itu, realisasi pendapatan negara (sementara) mencapai Rp 1.491,5 triliun (total penerimaan pajak, bea dan cukai, penerimaan negara bukan pajak/PNBP) atau 84,7% dari sasaran dalam APBNP 2015 sebesar Rp 1.761,6 triliun. Dari realisasi pendapatan negara tersebut, realisasi penerimaan perpajakan mencapai Rp 1.235,8 triliun, atau 83% dari target APBNP 2015 sebesar Rp 1.489,3 triliun. Tantangan utama pada aspek penerimaan ini adalah pada perlambatan ekonomi dan perlunya meningkatkan kepatuhan Wajib Pajak yang akan terus diupayakan dengan reformasi perpajakan. Hal yang menarik, di tengah melambatnya perekonomian, secara nominal pendapatan dari PPh Non Migas mencatatkan peningkatan sehingga mencapai Rp 547,5 triliun atau tumbuh sekitar 19% jika dibandingkan dengan realisasi tahun 2014. Secara keseluruhan Pajak Non Migas tumbuh sekitar 12% sebesar Rp 1.005,7 triliun, dengan demikian total penerimaan pajak gross adalah sebesar Rp 1.150 triliun (termasuk alokasi kas untuk restitusi pajak) dan total penerimaan pajak netto adalah sebesar Rp 1.055 triliun. Berdasarkan realisasi (sementara) pendapatan negara sebesar Rp 1.491,5 triliun dan belanja negara sebesar Rp 1.810,0 triliun, maka realisasi defisit anggaran dalam APBNP 2015 mencapai Rp 318,5 triliun atau 2,8% dari PDB, di bawah ketentuan maksimal 3% mengacu pada UU no 17 tahun 2003 tentang Keuangan Negara. Realisasi ini lebih tinggi dari target defisit anggaran dalam APBNP 2015 Rp 222,5 triliun (1,9% dari PDB). Dengan defisit tersebut, berimplikasi pada peningkatan realisasi pembiayaan anggaran yang mencapai Rp 329,4 triliun atau 147,3% dari target dalam APBNP 2015 sebesar Rp 222,5 triliun, realisasi pembiayaan anggaran tersebut berasal dari pembiayaan dalam negeri (neto) sebesar Rp 309,3 triliun dan pembiayaan luar negeri (neto) sebesar Rp 20,0 triliun. Berdasarkan realisasi defisit anggaran sebesar Rp 318,5 triliun dan realisasi pembiayaan anggaran sebesar Rp 329,3 triliun, maka pelaksanaan APBNP 2015 terdapat Sisa Lebih Pembiayaan Anggaran (SILPA) sebesar Rp 10,8 triliun. “Tentu ada rasa tidak puas dari pencapaian tersebut di atas, namun saya juga bersyukur bahwa hasil yang dicapai tersebut adalah hasil yang terbaik di tengah perlambatan ekonomi global yang berimbas kepada ekonomi domestik khususnya disebabkan oleh menurunnya harga dan permintaan komoditi dari negara mitra dagang Indonesia seperti Tiongkok dan Eropa,” kata Bambang. (mkl/drk) JAKARTA okezone – Ribuan kembang api telah diletupkan di seluruh kawasan wisata Ancol, Jakarta Utara, pada pergantian tahun. Alhasil, seluruh pengunjung tampak semringah melihat semerbak warna-warni di langit pesisir Ibu Kota. Ada ratusan ribu pengunjung dari berbagai daerah di Tanah Air yang merayakan pergantian tahun di pusat perayaan yang ditentukan oleh Pemrpov DKI Jakarta tersebut. “Kami senang sekali biasa merayakan tahun baru di Ancol,” ucap seorang pengunjung Ancol, Wika (21), Jumat (1/1/2016). Dirinya beserta keluarga jauh-jauh datang dari Lampung guna mengikuti prosesi perayaan pergantian tahun bersama Gubernur DKI Jakarta Basuki Tjahaja Purnama (Ahok). “Kita juga ingin melihat Pak Ahok. Kayak gimana sih, kata orang galak ya,” ucap Wika. Pada momentum tahun baru ini, Wika berharap pemerintah mampu bekerja lebih baik. Sehingga, membawa Indonesia menjadi “Macan Asia”. “Kalau harapan saya seperti dulu, Indonesia bisa menjadi Macan Asia di tahun baru ini,” tukasnya. Macan Asia maksudnya, Indonesia berjaya di antara negara-negara di Benua Asia. Baik di bidang ekonomi, olah raga, dan lainnya. (abp) Jakarta -detik- Presiden Joko Widodo (Jokowi) menyatakan, kondisi perekonomian Indonesia sudah cukup stabil, seiring dengan pondasi yang kuat ditanamkan di tahun ini. Terlihat dari sisi postur dalam Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (APBN), yang lebih diutamakan pada pengeluaran produktif. Hal ini juga yang menurut Jokowi memberikan kepercayaan banyak pihak terhadap Indonesia, khususnya dari sisi investor. Maka, sekarang saatnya pemerintah bekerja dan merealisasikan rencana yang sudah ditetapkan. “Sekarang ini adalah kondisi yang sangat baik. Kepercayaan sudah ada, investasi yang akan masuk antre, kondisi dolar ke rupiah juga stabil, kesempatan ini hanya tinggal kita bisa menyelesaikan menjadi sebuah gol atau tidak,” kata Jokowi, saat membuka sidang kabinet paripurna di Istana Negara, Jakarta, Rabu (23/12/2015) Jokowi menambahkan, pada APBN 2016, terlihat peningkatan yang signifikan untuk anggaran belanja ke sektor prduktif. Anggaran infrastruktur meningkat 76,2% , anggaran pendidikan naik 25,5%, dan anggaran kesehatan sebesar 75,4% dibandingkan APBN 2015. “Anggaran 2016 yang telah didelegasikan oleh rakyat betul-betul kita jaga, kita jaga agar berjalan secara efektif dan dimulai pada Januari 2016. Seperti yang sudah sering saya sampaikan, terutama untuk belanja modal. Semua itu harus segera direalisasikan pada awal tahun,” paparnya. Dari laporan yang masuk, Jokowi menyampaikan, lelang proyek di Kementerian Pekerjaan Umum dan Perumahan Rakyat (PUPR) sudah mencapai 42% dari total proyek. Kemudian Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) 34%, dan Kementerian Perhubungan 31%. “Kementerian-kementerian yang lainnya saya harapkan juga nantinya bisa disampaikan, baik Kementerian Kelautan dan Perikanan, Kementerian Pertanian misalnya yang gede-gede, yang langsung bersentuhan dengan rakyat,” ujar Jokowi. Dengan percepatan realisasi pada 2016, tentunya mampu mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi lebih cepat dan memberikan optimisme kepada investor. Sehingga target pertumbuhan ekonomi 5,3% tahun depan bisa realisasi. “Untuk menjaga momentum pertumbuhan ekonomi yang sekarang ini betul-betul berada pada kondisi yang kita dorong lagi, agar 2016 sesuai dengan rencana kita bisa naikkan jadi 5,3%,” terangnya. (mkl/dnl) Jakarta detik -Harga minyak dunia terus merosot hingga menembus level US$ 36 per barel. Bahkan, dalam 1,5 tahun terakhir, harga minyak dunia sudah anjlok 68%. Diperkirakan, harga minyak dunia masih akan merosot di tahun depan. Lantas, apa dampaknya bagi perekonomian Indonesia? Ekonom Senior Mandiri Sekuritas Leo Putra Rinaldy mengatakan, merosotnya harga minyak dunia ini tentu berpengaruh terhadap perekonomian dalam negeri. Hal yang paling mendasar adalah soal pendapatan negara. Di saat harga minyak terus merosot, otomatis pendapatan negara dari sektor migas juga turut anjlok. Namun, di sisi lain, biaya pemerintah untuk mengimpor juga bisa berkurang. “Buat government jelek karena asumsi oil price di 2015 rata-rata US$ 50, kalau asumsikan harga oil di bawah US$ 50 per barel, maka risiko di sisi revenue pemerintah bisa terganggu. Di sisi lain, kita kan net importir, kalau penurunan harga minyak, itu positif buat trade,” jelas dia. Di sisi lain, Leo menyebutkan, dengan penurunan harga minyak dunia yang begitu tajam, pemerintah seharusnya mengkaji untuk bisa menurunkan harga Bahan Bakar Minyak (BBM). “Kenapa kita belum menikmati penurunan harga BBM, harga minyak dunia sudah ke US$ 36 per barel. Kalau BBM diturunkan di awal tahun, inflasi terkendali, maka BI rate ada ruang untuk penurunan,” kata dia. Dalam kesempatan yang sama, Department Head Industry and Regional Research Bank Mandiri Dendi Ramdani mengungkapkan, harga minyak dunia ke depan tidak akan terperosok terlalu dalam. Permintaan minyak masih akan tinggi, terutama India yang merupakan importir minyak terbesar saat ini. “Harga minyak tidak akan turun terlalu tajam. Masih ada importir terbesar yang akan menyerap produksi minyak yaitu India. Kalau harga minyak terus turun, investasi oil and gas akan sulit. Dari sisi domestik, kalau makin turun akan parah, dampak jangka panjang sulit untuk lifting minyak yang ditargetkan pemerintah,” tandasnya. (drk/rrd) JAKARTA ID-Bank Dunia menilai belanja pemerintah masih menjadi sumber pertumbuhan Indonesia pada 2016, di tengah tingginya tekanan ekonomi global yang bisa menghambat kinerja ekspor dan aliran investasi. Kepala Perwakilan Bank Dunia untuk Indonesia, Rodrigo Chaves, dalam paparan ekonomi triwulanan di Jakarta, Selasa, mengatakan reformasi anggaran telah tampak pada postur fiskal anggaran 2016, dengan relokasi ke pagu belanja modal yang cukup besar. “Investasi (pemerintah) lebih banyak guna membangun infrastruktur, layanan kesehatan, dan program bantuan sosial. Hal itu dapat memperkuat proyeksi pertumbuhan dan membantu masyarakat miskin dan rentan,” ujarnya. Belanja modal Indonesia, menurut data Kementerian Keuangan, meningkat menjadi 2,5 persen dari Produk Domestik Bruto pada 2016, dibanding 2015 yang sebesar 2,2 persen. Salah satu pagu belanja modal, yakni belanja infrastruktur mencapai Rp313,4 triliun. Namun, Chaves mengingatkan, tingginya belanja modal di 2016 tersebut, harus diimbangi upaya pemerintah dalam menggenjot penerimaan. Dia menilai target pendapatan negara tahun depan sebesar Rp1.822 triliun bisa sangat sulit tercapai karena tekanan ekonomi global yang masih membayangi. “Jika penerimaan pemerintah pada 2016 tetap lemah, momentum belanja infrastruktur publik untuk mendorong perekonomian bisa terancam,” ujarnya. Di sisi lain, efek dari tujuh paket kebijakan ekonomi pemerintah, ujar Chaves, akan mulai terasa di akhir tahun ini dan berlanjut di 2016. Kebijakan yang banyak menyasar deregulasi perizinan dan juga beberapa program pemerataan, lanjutnya, bisa menambah daya imunitas ekonomi domestik dari ancaman volatilitas global, serta mendorong pertumbuhan yang lebih tinggi pada 2016. “Apabila reformasi dilanjutkan dan implementasinya efektif, Indonesia dapat menjaga diri dari potensi volatilitas dan menikmati pertumbuhan lebih tinggi pada 2016,” ujarnya. Ekonom CRECO Research Institute Raden Pardede menilai pemerintah harus menjaga efisiensi dan efektivitas belanja modal. Dia juga menyarankan pemerintah untuk segera mengajukan revisi anggaran atau APBN-Perubahan 2016 kepada parlemen. Hal itu, menurutnya, karena pagu belanja dalam APBN 2016 dibuat berdasarkan proyeksi pendapatan negara yang menurutnya sulit dicapai. Bank Dunia masih mempertahankan proyeksi yang dikeluarkan Oktober 2015 lalu, yakni pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada 2016 sebesar 5,3 persen dan pada tahun ini sebesar 4,7 persen.(ant/hrb) INDONESIA okezone gagal mencapai Target Tujuan Pembangunan Millenium (MDGs) tahun 2015, karena tidak mampu menekan Angka Kematian Ibu (AKI). Apa sebab AKI masih banyak? Angka kematian ibu hamil dan melahirkan di negara ini berdasarkan Survey Demografi dan Kesehatan Indonesia (SDKI), masih cukup tinggi yakni 359 per 100.000 kelahiran hidup. Padahal, target MDGs tahun ini bisa turun jadi 102 per 100.000 kelahiran hidup. Kepala Badan Kependudukan dan Keluarga Berencana Nasional (BKKBN), Surya Chandra Surapaty mengatakan, penurunan itu belum terjadi. Bahkan, dalam beberapa tahun terakhir terjadi tren kenaikan AKI. “Kematian ibu hamil yang seharusnya diturunkan menjadi 102 ternyata meningkat 359. Hal itu berarti MDGs kita belum tercapai dalam hal ini,” katanya saat memberi kuliah umum di Auditorium Ali Hasjmy Universitas Islam Negeri (UIN) Ar Raniry, Banda Aceh, Sabtu 12 Desember 2015. Menurutnya tingginya AKI dalam beberapa tahun terakhir bukan hanya dipengaruhi faktor kesehatan ibu, tapi juga ikut disumbang dari kasus kecelakaan jatuhnya pesawat terbang. “Dalam setiap bulan ada delapan sampai sembilan pesawat Boing 737 seri 400 jatuh, 150 penumpang ibu hamil atau melahirkan. Tragis memang, tetapi ibu hamil atau melahirkan ini sering tidak diperhatikan, tidak menarik mungkin,” ujar Surya. Selain itu masih banyaknya kasus pernikahan dini, terutama di kalangan masyarakat menengah ke bawah, juga ikut menyumbang tingginya AKI. Menurutnya kematian ibu dan bayi bisa dicegah dengan empat hal, seperti menikah pada usia matang secara seksual, yakni setelah berusia 21 tahun untuk perempuan dan 25 tahun bagi lakilaki. Kemudian, mengatur waktu kelahiran agar jangan terlalu rapat, idealnya tiga tahun. Selanjutnya, hindari terlalu banyak anak, serta jangan hamil terlalu tua atau pada usia 35 tahun ke atas. (hel) JAKARTA – Presiden Joko Widodo (Jokowi) meminta seluruh pihak mempercepat pembangunan kilang di Tanah Air. Pasalnya, banyak investor yang kini antre untuk membangun kilang minyak di Indonesia. Saat memimpin rapat terbatas bidang ekonomi di Kantor Kepresidenan, Kamis (3/12), Presiden Jokowi menyatakan Indonesia sudah 30 tahun tidak membangun kilang.  Melihat kondisi ini, Presiden menegaskan perlunya segera dibangun kilang baru. “Pembangunan pembangkit listrik dan kilang semuanya harus dipercepat, dan kita lihat kesempatan itu sangat ada. Investor yang mau masuk antre,†kata Presiden Jokowi.  Dia memerintahkan seluruh jajaran Kementerian dan Lembaga untuk memberikan pelayanan yang cepat dan baik sehingga peluang itu bisa ditangkap dan dilaksanakan di lapangan. Jajaran Kementerian dan Lembaga harus mendukung keinginan dunia usaha berinvestasi. “Saya minta semua dipercepat, baik oleh pemerintah dan BUMN. Jangan ada alasan, jangan sampai ditunda-tunda,†ujar Presiden Jokowi.  Dengan demikian, meski sudah 30 tahun tidak membangun kilang, Indonesia bisa segera memiliki kilang baru. “Kita bisa punya (kilang baru) di akhir 2019, baik di Pulau Jawa, maupun di luar Jawa,†tutur dia.  Direktur Jenderal Minyak dan Gas Bumi Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (ESDM) I Gusti Nyoman Wiratmaja sempat menuturkan, pihaknya tengah memfinalisasi Peratura Presiden yang akan mempercepat pembangunan kilang. Perpres ini masih tahap finalisasi di tingkat Kementerian Koordinator Perekonomian.  Perpres ini nantinya berisi empat opsi model pembangunan kilang. Pertama, kilang tersebut dibangun oleh badan usaha. Opsi kedua, pembangunan kilang melalui skema kerjasama antara pemerintah dengan badan usaha. Pilihan selanjutnya Pertamina mendapatkan penugasan khusus untuk membangun kilang tersebut. Sedangkan opsi terakhir pembangunan kilang dibiayai oleh Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (APBN).  Menurut Wiratmaja, rencananya kilang dibangun di dua lokasi. Pertama, pembangunan kilang di Bontang Kalimantan Timur dengan kapasitas mengolah minyak mentah 300 ribu barel per hari (bph). Lokasi kedua, yakni di Tuban, Jawa Timur dengan kapasitas yang sama. “Yang di Tuban, penugasan ke Pertamina,†ujar dia.  Pembangunan kilang biasanya memakan waktu sekitar 8 tahun yang meliputu perencanaan, rekayasa, lelang paket rekayasa, pengadaan dan pembangunan (engineering, procurement and costruction/EPC) dan pelaksanaan EPC. Dengan Perpres pembangunan kilang mampu dirampungkan dalam lima tahun.  Sebelumnya, Direktur Pengolahan Pertamina Rahmat Hardadi menuturkan, sektor pengolahan mendapat anggaran investasi sekitar Rp 2 triliun pada tahun depan. Anggaran ini akan digunakan untuk menggarap dua proyek perbaikan kilang dan memulai pembangunan kilang baru. Untuk pembangunan kilang baru yang merupakan penugasan langsung, perseroan kini telah mengundang 56 perusahaan yang akan diseleksi menjadi mitra.  “Harapan saya akhir Januari atau medio Februari sudah ada partner terpilih,†kata dia.  Selanjutnya, Pertamina akan menggarap penyiapan lokasi, studi kelayakan, desain dasar (basic engineering design/BED), dan desain rinci (front end engineering design/FEED). Kilang baru berkapasitas 300 ribu bph ini bakal berlokasi di Tuban, Jawa Timur dan ditargetkan bisa mulai beroperasi pada 2021. (nov/ayu)   http://id.beritasatu.com/energy/jokowi-investor-antre-bangun-kilang-minyak/134455 (http://id.beritasatu.com/energy/jokowi-investor-antre-bangun-kilang-minyak/134455) Sumber : INVESTOR DAILY JAKARTA. Produsen permesinan Taiwan siap berekspansi di Indonesia dengan menyediakan produk yang lebih terjangkau dan berkualitas, untuk menyaingi dominasi produk permesinan asal Jepang di Indonesia. Li Lun Yeh, perwakilan dari departemen riset mesin dan manufaktur Industrial Economics and Knowledge Center Taiwan, mengatakan bahwa saat ini 58% kebutuhan permesinan di Indonesia dipenuhi dari Jepang. Sedangkan di urutan kedua, ada Taiwan dengan porsi 10% dengan nilai US$104,2 juta pada 2014. “Indonesia masih banyak pakai produk Jepang. Ke depannya, kami ingin memperkenalkan produk permesinan dari Taiwan supaya nilai ekspor ini bisa bisa meningkat,†ujarnya di paviliun Taiwan pada pameran Manufacturing & Machine Tool Indonesia 2015 yang diselenggarakan PT Pamerindo Indonesia, Rabu (2/12/2015). Dia mengatakan bahwa mesin yang diproduksi Taiwan sangat sesuai bagi rata-rata konsumen mesin yang merupakan kalangan pelaku industri nasional. Hal tersebut disebabkan oleh jangka waktu penggunaan produk yang cukup panjang, juga karena harga yang ekonomis. “Kalau dibandingkan Jepang yang durability-nya sampai 10 tahun, Taiwan berkisar 5 tahun, sedangkan China hanya 1 tahun. Selain itu dari sisi harga, harga produk Taiwan sekitar 15% lebih murah dari produk Jepang. Kalau China berkisar 15%-20% dari Jepang,†jabarnya. Selain itu, dia mengatakan bahwa pihaknya juga siap bersaing dengan Jepang untuk produk-produk berkualitas tinggi. Dia menyadari bahwa tetap ada segmen dari konsumen Indonesia yang membutuhkan mesin dengan teknologi dan kualitas tinggi. “Konsumen Indonesia bukan hanya untuk yang kualitas di tengah, tapi tinggi juga. Kami yakin bisa memenuhi itu. Kami sudah lihat Jepang seperti apa, tentunya tidak ingin kalah dalam memenuhi kebutuhan di segmen tersebut,†katanya. Sekitar 120 perusahaan Taiwan mengikuti pameran yang diadakan oleh PT Pamerindo Indonesia, di antaranya adalah Tong Tai, Chin Fong, Honor Seiki, Yeong Chin Machinery (YCM), dan Victor Taichung. Adapun pameran Manufacturing Indonesia Series 2015 dan Machine Tool Indonesia 2015 yang diselenggarakan di JiExpo Kemayoran Jakarta pada 2-5 Desember 2015 ini diikuti oleh 37 negara peserta, dengan target pengunjung berkisar 38.000 orang. Selain Taiwan, terdapat peserta pameran dari negara lain seperti Turki, China, Thailand, Jepang, Jerman dan Inggris.  http://industri.bisnis.com/read/20151203/257/498019/taiwan-siap-pasok-permesinan-di-indonesia (http://industri.bisnis.com/read/20151203/257/498019/taiwan-siap-pasok-permesinan-diindonesia) Sumber : BISNIS.COM JAKARTA kontan. MasterCard melalui indeks kesejahteraan kota-kota di Asia Pasifik melaporkan bahwa masyarakat di negara maju lebih stres dibandingkan orang-orang di negara berkembang. Misalnya, masyarakat yang tinggal di kota-kota berkembang memiliki indeks 65,8 untuk bersikap positif terhadap kesejahteraan dibandingkan masyarakat di kota maju dengan indeks 56,8. Hasil dari survei 9.000 orang di 33 kota di 17 negara di Asia Pasifik mencatat, Jakarta memiliki indeks 72,1 untuk bersikap positif terhadap tingkat kesejahteraan yang terdiri dari komponen pekerjaan dan keuangan, keamanan dari ancaman, dan kepuasan. Serta kota lainnya yang bersikap positif adalah Delhi dengan indeks 71,7 dan Bangalore dengan indeks 73,2. Sedangkan, kota yang paling tidak positif terhadap kesejahteraan adalah Dhaka dengan indeks 48,7, diikuti Tokyo dengan indeks 52,1 dan Busan dengan indeks 52,5. Secara keseluruhan, untuk indeks kesejahteraan menyebutkan masyarakat di kota-kota negara maju merasakan lebih banyak tekanan dan kurang optimis saat berbicara mengenai kesehatan dibandingkan masyarakat di kota-kota negara berkembang. Georgette Tan Group Head, Communications, Asia Pasifik, MasterCard mengatakan, masyarakat mengasumsikan perkembangan ekonomi mengarah kepada berkurangnya tekanan keuangan, keluarga, dan pekerjaan. “Masyarakat di negara maju lebih merasa di bawah tekanan, baik di tempat kerja maupun di rumah,” katanya, dari paparan yang diterima KONTAN, kemarin. Lanjutnya, seiring dengan lambatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi di negara maju memberikan dampak pada prospek pekerjaan. Ambil contoh, masyarakat di negara maju merasa lebih tertekan karena sedikit lapangan kerja yang tersedia. Nah, tekanan pekerjaan dan keuangan tersebut merupakan pemicu dari tekanan keluarga. Meskipun ada rasa stres, namun masyarakat secara keseluruhan, baik di kota-kota negara berkembang maupun negara maju tetap positif terhadap kesejahteraan mereka saat ini. Kesempatan dan kualitas hidup akan terus meningkat di seluruh kota di Asia Pasifik jika mereka ingin terus tumbuh dan berkembang. Berikut adalah indeks berdasarkan komponen : . Kesejahteraan (65,4 di kota-kota negara berkembang VS 51,6 di negara maju) . Pekerjaan dan keuangan (71,0 di negara berkembang VS 59,4 di kota-kota negara maju) . Keamanan dari ancaman (57,7 pada kota-kota di negara berkembang VS 56,5 di negara maju) Adapun, perhitungan skor indeks ini dengan memperhitungkan 0 merepresentasikan respon negatif maksimum, 100 merepresentasikan respon positif maksimum, dan 50 merepresentasikan netralitas. JAKARTA. Pada saat ini, peluang investasi terutama di sektor usaha kecil menengah (UKM) berbasis teknologi sangat luas dan menjanjikan. Demikian disampaikan Geoffrey David Coates, Presiden Komisaris dari Commonwealth Bank Indonesia dalam acara Indonesia Australia Business Week (IABW) di Jakarta.
Didukung oleh pertumbuhan kelas menengah, usaha kecil dan menengah di Indonesia memiliki peranan penting dalam menciptakan lapangan kerja dan pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Pada saat ini tercatat UKM berkontribusi sebesar 57,9% dari Pendapatan Domestik Bruto (PDB) Indonesia di tahun 2015. Pada kesempatan yang sama, Coates juga menyampaikan bahwa teknologi akan memiliki peranan yang penting untuk pertumbuhan bisnis usaha kecil dan menengah di Indonesia. Teknologi mobile semakin mudah diperoleh seiring meningkatnya fungsi yang dibutuhkan dengan harga terjangkau dan akan terus berkelanjutan di masa yang akan datang. “Saya melihat inilah saatnya UKM memanfaatkan teknologi, karena akses adalah elemen utama yang diinginkan setiap orang dan hal tersebut dapat dihasilkan melalui inovasi teknologi,” ungkap Coates dalam keterangan tertulis yang diterima Bisnis.com, Sabtu (21/10/2015). Commonwealth Bank Indonesia mencatat pertumbuhan UKM sebanyak 17,8% per September 2015. “Kami akan terus mengembangkan layanan kami, khususnya yang berbasis digital dan teknologi untuk membantu nasabah kami membangun peluang bisnisnya,” kata Coates. http://industri.bisnis.com/read/20151123/87/494681/commonwealth-bank-dibutuhkan-lebih-banyak-ukm-berbasis-teknologi (http://industri.bisnis.com/read/20151123/87/494681/commonwealth-bank-dibutuhkan-lebih-banyak-ukm-berbasis-teknologi) Sumber : BISNIS.COM Jakarta detik -Kemampuan finansial masyarakat Indonesia untuk membeli rumah masih sangat terbatas. Selain kemampuan membeli, pasokan rumah yang dibuat oleh para pengembang properti pun masih terbatas setiap tahunnya. Direktur Jenderal Pembiayaan Perumahan Kementerian Pekerjaan Umum dan Perumahan Rakyat, Maurin Sitorus mengatakan pemerintah sangat menyadari penyediaan perumahan butuh dana yang besar, sehingga pemerintah harus hadir untuk membantu antara lain dengan subsidi. “Dari 250 juta jumlah penduduk di Indonesia, hanya 50 juta orang yang sanggup membeli rumah sendiri tanpa bantuan. Sementara sisanya perlu dibantu,” kata Maurin seperti dikutip dari situs PU, Jumat (20/11/2015). Ia merinci dari 200 juta penduduk yang perlu bantuan, 40% adalah masyarakat bawah, sebanyak 10% dari jumlah itu adalah penduduk yang sama sekali tidak punya kemampuan dalam membeli rumah. Sehingga pemerintah menyediakan rumah singgah, rumah khusus, rumah nelayan, BSPS (Bantuan Stimulan Perumahan Swadaya) untuk peningkatan kualitas rumah dan BSPS rumah baru. “Sisanya memiliki kemampuan untuk membeli rumah namun harus dibantu. Disinilah pemerintah hadir dalam memberikan fasilitas Kredit Pemilikan Rumah melalui Fasilitas Likuiditas Pembiayaan Perumahan (KPR FLPP),” jelas Maurin. Bagi mereka yang mendapatkan program KPR FLP, maka rata-rata mendapatkan subsidi Rp 76,2 juta per orang (http://finance.detik.com/read/2015/11/20/113704/3076186/1016/ikut-kprrumah-murah-satu-orang-dapat-subsidi-rp-76-juta?f9911023) selama proses KPR selesai. Masyarakat yang berhak mendapat program ini adalah Masyarakat Berpenghasilan Rendah (MBR). Total subsidi Rp 76,2 juta per orang yang diberikan mencakup dari berbagai sumber seperti subsidi bunga, bantuan Prasarana Sarana dan Utilitas melalui pengembang. (hen/hns) After enjoying windfall profits during the 2014 elections – the nation’s biggest political festival – ad agencies have continued to enjoy a bountiful income from political advertising this year, a Nielsen survey says. Media director of Nielsen Indonesia Hellen Katerina said that even without an election campaign so far this year, political advertising had still dominated advertisers’ incomes, with money going toward congratulatory or condolence-offering ads from government institutions and political entities. “About 36% of advertising earnings in the third quarter of 2015 came from the government and political organizations. Compared to the same period last year, this is down 15 percent but still dominates the advertising industry, which is worth Rp 4.6 trillion [US$335 million],” she said to the press in Jakarta on Wednesday. The spending also came from regional administrations, with East Kalimantan province being the biggest spender. In the third quarter, it disbursed Rp 404.9 billion for advertising, a 79 percent increase year-on-year (yoy). East Kalimantan – dubbed the richest province in Indonesia thanks to coal, palm oil and oil and gas – received many awards from the finance minister last month related to excellent public service performances and financial reporting. Riau province spent the second most on ads in quarter three, totaling Rp 355.3 billion, a 3 percent rise yoy. To compare, this amounts to half the advertising spending of Indomie – the country’s biggest individual spender – with Rp 723 billion. In terms of media, TV was still the main choice for advertising, taking 72 percent of the market. It defeated newspapers and magazines, which received 26 percent and 3 percent of the market, respectively. But in terms of market-share growth, magazines led the way with 13 percent growth, followed by TV, which gained 8 percent, and newspapers, whose market share increased by 6 percent. One reason for that, Katerina said, was that many newspapers had shut down. In 2014 there were 170 media companies monitored by Nielsen, but that decreased to 132 in 2015. Sixteen TV stations closed down this year in Indonesia, and 22 print media companies went bankrupt. Nielsen’s survey was taken in 11 big cities across Indonesia: Jakarta, Bandung, Semarang, Yogyakarta, Surakarta, Medan, Palembang, Surabaya, Denpasar, Banjarmasin and Makassar. It surveyed a wide range of individuals and organizations, including 2,273 households and 8,736 organizations, all selected using stratified random sampling. (ags)(+) – See more at: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2015/11/19/govt-political-parties-still-biggest-advertisers-indonesia.html#sthash.3gw2DGQL.dpuf (http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2015/11/19/govt-political-parties-still-biggest-advertisers-indonesia.html#sthash.3gw2DGQL.dpuf) ANTALYA chinadaily – Chinese President Xi Jinping said here that China is ready to boost economic and trade cooperation with Indonesia by enhancing cooperation in major fields such as infrastructure and expanding the scale of currency swap between the two countries. Meeting with his Indonesian counterpart Joko Widodo on the sidelines of the ongoing Group of 20 (G20) summit, Xi said China is satisfied with bilateral cooperation this year as the two sides have achieved new positive results in docking their respective development strategies and deepening practical cooperation. The Chinese side will also provide support for Manila to carry out reconstruction after forest fire and other relevant projects involving people’s livelihood, Xi added. For his part, Widodo said Indonesia attaches great importance to its ties with China and is willing to join hands with the Chinese side to promote reciprocal cooperation in such areas as railway and energy. He also expressed his support for China to hold next year’s G20 summit. The Chinese president arrived here on Saturday to attend the G20 summit. During the first day’s summit, Xi elaborated China’s views on the world economic situation, raised proposals to address global challenges and urged sides to explore new impetus for global economic growth. After Antalya, Xi will fly to Manila to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Economic Leaders’ Meeting from Nov 18 to 19 to promote global economic cooperation and cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region. Surabaya detik –
Indonesia kini memiliki kapal ternak yang dibuat oleh galangan kapal di Bangkalan, Madura, yaitu PT Adiluhung Saranasegara Indonesia. Kapal ternak ‘Made in Bangkalan‘ ini dinamai KM Camara Nusantara 1. Menteri Perhubungan, Ignasius Jonan mengungkapkan, kapal ternak ini bisa menekan biaya pengangkutan sapi dari sentranya di Nusa Tenggara Timur ke Jakarta hingga 40%. Biaya angkutnya kira-kira Rp 300.000 per ekor sapi. “Penghematannya sekurangnya 30-40%. Kira-kira nanti 1 sapi Rp 300.000 biaya pengangkutannya,” kata Jonan kepada detikFinance di Surabaya, Selasa (10/11/2015). KM Camara Nusantara 1 akan ditempatkan di Pelabuhan Tenau, Kupang sebagai pangkalan dengan kode trayek RT-1 untuk melayani rute Kupang-Bima-Tanjung Perak-Tanjung EmasCirebon-Tanjung Emas-Tanjung Perak-Bima-Kupang. Kapal ternak tidak hanya akan dibuat untuk pengangkutan sapi dari NTT, tapi juga dari sentra-sentra sapi lainnya. Rute lain akan ditentukan oleh Menteri Pertanian Amran Sulaiman. “Nantinya tergantung Mentan, dia yang menentukan maunya dimana lagi (perlu kapal ternak),” ucap Jonan. Tahun 2016, Kementerian Perhubungan akan membuat lagi 5 unit kapal ternak berkapasitas 500 ekor sapi dengan harga Rp 58 miliar per kapal. “Harganya Rp 58 miliar dari APBN. Tahun depan kita mengadakan 5 kapal ternak,” tutupnya. (hns/hns) BANGKALAN – Presiden RI Joko Widodo (Jokowi) meresmikan tiga kapal di PT Adiluhung Sarana Segara Indonesia, Desa Ujung Piring, Kecamatan Kota, Kabupaten Bangkalan, Madura, Jawa Timur, hari ini. Tiga kapal ini, akan digunakan untuk beroperasi di tol laut. Ketiga kapal tersebut masing-masing KM Camara Nusantara 1, KM Sabuk Nusantara 55 dan KM Sabuk Nusantara 56. Khusus KM Camara Nusantara 1 merupakan kapal pengangkut hewan ternak. Sedangkan untuk dua kapal lainnya merupakan perintis. Penempatan pengoperasian untuk kapal ternak akan ditempatkan di Pelabuhan Tenau, Kupang sebagai pelabuhan pangkal dengan kode trayek RT-1. Kemudian akan melayari Kupang–Bima–Tanjung Perak–Tanjung Emas–Cirebon–Tanjung Emas–Tanjung Perak–Bima–Kupang. Sementara kapal perintis KM Sabuk Nusantara 55 ditempatkan di pelabuhan Kota Baru, Kalimantan Selatan sebagai pelabuhan pangkal dengan kode trayek R–12 untuk melayari Kota baru–Batulicin–Marabatuan–Maradapan–Matasiri–Maradapan–Marabatuan–Batulicin–Kota Baru–Majene–Kota baru. Lalu untuk KM Sabuk Nusantara 56 ditempatkan di pelabuhan Tanjung Perak, Surabaya sebagai Pelabuhan Pangkal dengan kode trayek R– 16 untuk melayari Surabaya– Masalembo– Keramaian– Masalembo– Kalianget– Sapudi– Kangean– Pagerungan Besar– Sapeken– Tanjung Wangi– Sapeken– Pagerungan Besar– Kangean– Sapudi– Kalianget Masalembo– Keramaian – Masalembo– Surabaya. Pelaksanaan pembangunan dua unit kapal perintis tipe 750 DWT dan 1 unit kapal khusus pengangkut ternak adalah UU Nomor 17 Tahun 2008 tentang pelayaran. Serta Peraturan pemerintah nomor 20 Tahun 2010 tentang angkutan di perairan. Berdasarkan Peraturan Menteri Perhubungan nomor 93 Tahun 2013 tentang penyelenggaraan dan pengusahaan angkutan laut. Adapun tujuan pembangunan kapal perintis sendiri untuk melayani dan membuka jalur pelayaran di daerah yang belum berkembang, wilayah terpencil, terisolir dan perbatasan. Lalu untuk mempersatukan NKRI, mendukung pengembangan ekonomi daerah. Dan sebagai feeder dari tol laut nasional dan kapal-kapal Pelni. Sedangkan tujuan pembangunan kapal ternak untuk mendukung distribusi daging sapi atau kerbau nasional dalam usaha mencapai swasembada daging. Serta mengimplementasikan prinsip animal walvare (kesejahteraan hewan). http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/11/10/320/1246599/jokowi-resmikan-tiga-kapal-tol-laut (http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/11/10/320/1246599/jokowi-resmikan-tiga-kapal-tollaut) Sumber : OKEZONE.COM Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Ekonomi Indonesia pada kuartal III/2015 (y-o-y) tumbuh sebesar 4,73%. Deputi Bidang Neraca dan Analisis Statistik Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) Surhariyanto mengatakan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada kuartal III/2015 dibanding kuartal III/2014 didukung hampir semua lapangan usaha kecuali pertambangan dan penggalian yang mengalami kontraksi sebesar 5,64%. “Pertumbuhan tertinggi dicapai oleh informasi dan komunikasi sebesar 10,83%, diikuti oleh jasa keuangan dan asuransi sebesar 10,35% dan jasa pendidikan sebesar 8,25%,” ujarnya dalam konferensi pers di Gedung BPS, Kamis (5/11/2015). Struktur Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) Indonesia menurut lapangan usaha atas dasar harga berlaku pada kuartal III/2015 tidak menunjukkan perubahan yang berarti. “Struktur perekonomian masih didominasi tiga lapangan usaha utama yaitu industri pengolahan sebesar 20,41%, pertanian, kehutanan, dan perikanan sebesar 14,57%, dan perdagangan ecereceran reparasi mobil dan motor sebesar 13,09%,” kataSurhariyanto. Sumber pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia menurut lapangan usaha ditopang oleh industri pengolahan memiliki sumber pertumbuhan tertinggi sebesar 0,92% diikuti konstruksi sebesar 0,65%, informasi dan komunikasi sebesar 0,48%, dan pertanian, kehutanan dan perikanan sebesar 0,46%. Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada kuartal III/2015 terhadap kuartal I/2015 terjadj pada hampir semua lapangan usaha kecuali pengadaan listrik dan gas mengalami penurunan sebesar 0,85%. “Pertumbuhan tertinggi dicapai oleh jasa keuangan dan asuransi sebesar 7,03% diikuti pertanian, kehutanan, dan perikanan sebesar 5,09%, serta konstruksi sebesar 4,88%,” ucapnya. Surhariyanto menambahkan pertumbuhan pada kuartal III/2015 ini masih diwarnai oleh faktor musiman lapangan usaha pertanian, kehutanan, dan perikanan khususnya tanaman perkebunan djmana beberapa komoditas mengalami panen raya. Sementara itu, pertumbuhan ekonomu Indonesia pada kuartal I/2015 hingga kuartal III/2015 dibanding periode yang sama tahun lalu (c-t-c), pertumbuhan terjadi pada hampir semua lapangan usaha kecuali pertambangan dan penggalian yang mengalami kontraksi sebesar 4,48%. Pertumbuhan tertinggi dicapai oleh informasi dan komunikasi sebesar 10,23% diikuti jasa pendidikan 8,74%, dan jasa lainnya sebesar 8,07%. JAKARTA ID – Menko Perekonomian Darmin Nasution mengumumkan Paket Kebijakan Ekonomi Tahap VI di Kantor Kepresidenan, Jakarta, Kamis (5/11). Pengumuman dilakukan setelah digelar rapat terbatas Kabinet Kerja bidang ekonomi yang dipimpin Presiden Joko Widodo. “Ada tiga hal yang diatur dalam Paket Kebijakan Ekonomi Tahap VI atau yang dikenal dengan Paket November,” kata Sekretaris Kabinet Pramono Anung. Dia mengatakan ada tiga hal yang diatur dalam Paket Kebijakan Ekonomi Tahap VI, yaitu pengembangan Kawasan Ekonomi Khusus (KEK), tindak lanjut atas Putusan Mahkamah Konstitusi mengenai UU Air, serta obat dan makanan. “Kebijakan ini diharapkan akan semakin membuat dunia usaha mendapat kepastian,” ujar Pramono. Di bidang KEK, pemerintah akan memberikan fasilitas pengurangan PPh sekitar 20-100 persen selama 10-15 tahun untuk investasi sebesar Rp 500 miliar – Rp 1 triliun dan pengurangan PPh 20-100 persen selama 20 tahun untuk perusahaan yang investasinya lebih dari Rp 1 triliun.
Fasilitas pengurangan PPh 20-100 persen juga akan diberikan untuk perusahaan di KEK yang menggunakan sumber daya lokal. Bagi perusahaan yang tidak menggunakan sumber daya lokal akan diberikan tax allowance 30 persen selama enam tahun. Kedelapan KEK itu terdiri atas KEK Sei Mangkei di Sumatera Utara, KEK Maloy Batuta Trans Kalimantan (Kalimantan Timur), KEK Palu (Sulawesi Tengah), KEK Morotai (Maluku Utara), KEK Tanjung Api-Api (Sumatera Selatan), KEK Tanjung Lesung (Banten), KEK Mandalika (Nusa Tenggara Barat), dan KEK Bitung (Sulawesi Utara). Di sektor pengelolaan air, Menko Darmin mengatakan UU no 7/2004 sudah dicabut Mahkamah Konstitusi. Pada Februari lalu, Mahkamah Konstitusi (MK) membatalkan UU no.7/2004 tentang Sumber Daya Air (SDA) karena tidak memenuhi enam prinsip dasar pembatasan pengelolaan sumber daya air. Menurut MK, air sebagai bagian dari hak asasi manusia dalam pelaksanaannya dikuasai oleh negara. “Perusahaan yang sudah memperoleh izin (mengelola air) masih bisa beroperasi hingga dikatakan lain oleh UU,” kata Darmin. Di bidang obat dan makanan, Menko Darmin mengatakan Badan Pengawas Obat dan Makanan (BPOM) telah menyederhanakan impor bahan baku obat dan makanan. “Yang dimaksud dengan penyederhanaan adalah peralihan dari paper ke paperless (online) dalam mengurus impor, sehingga waktu yang dibutuhkan untuk mengimpor bisa berkurang,” kata Darmin. Darmin berharap sistem online mampu mengurangi proses perizinan impor obat dan bahan makanan hingga kurang dari satu jam. Darmin mengatakan tujuan dan manfaat yang diharapkan dari kebijakan ini adalah memberi kepastian dan daya tarik bagi penanam modal sehingga menciptakan lapangan kerja dan penghasilan bagi para pekerja di wilayah masing-masing. “Fasilitas yang ditetapkan dalam bentuk PP dengan sejumlah insentif bertujuan untuk mendorong pengembangan kluster industri berbasis sumber daya lokal. Dengan catatan, yang bukan sumber daya lokal juga tetap mungkin dikembangkan,” kata Darmin. Darmin menambahkan paket ini juga mendorong keterpaduan upaya iklim investasi yang baik antara pemerintah pusat dan daerah. “Mudah-mudahan ini adalah awal dari kita bisa menjalankan penyerdehanaan kemudahan investasi di berbagai daerah,” kata Darmin. (ID/Novy Lumanauw/fmb) JAKARTA. Perekonomian Indonesia mulai menggeliat pada kuartal III 2015. Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mengumumkan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada kuartal III 2015 sebesar 4,73% secara year on year (YoY). Pertumbuhan ini lebih baik dibandingkan kuartal II 2015 hanya 4,67% dan kuartal I 2015 4,72%. Deputi Kepala BPS Bidang Neraca dan Analisis Statistik BPS, Suhariyanto menyebut, salah satu pendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi adalah realisasi belanja pemerintah meningkat yang pesat. “Belanja barang tumbuh 34,28% dan belanja modal meningkat 58,10%,” kata Suhariyanto saat memberikan keterangan pers di kantor BPS, Kamis (5/11). Surabaya detik -Menteri Perhubungan (Menhub) Ignasius Jonan dan Menteri Perdagangan Thomas Lembong meresmikan pengoperasian tiga trayek tol laut. Di Surabaya, pelayaran satu unit kapal tol laut dilepas perdana di Dermaga Jamrud Selatan Pelabuhan Tanjung Perak, Surabaya, Jawa Timur. Kapal itu adalah KM Caraka Jaya Niaga III-32. Kapal milik Pelni tersebut akan melalui rute pulang-pergi (PP) Surabaya-Tual-Fak Fak, Kaimana, dan Timika Papua. “Untuk yang di Surabaya ini khusus mengangkut barang. Kapasitasnya 115 TEUs kontainer. Isinya sebagian besar sembako dan bahan kebutuhan pokok,” kata Kepala Kantor Cabang PT Pelni Surabaya Presda Simangasing di sela pelepasan kapal Tol Laut, Rabu (4/11/2015). Presda mengatakan, kapal tol laut sepanjang 98 meter ini ditarget bisa mengemas distribusi logistik hingga 80% hingga akhir tahun ini. Diharapkan kapal yang mendapat subsidi pemerintah 15% dari tarif umum ini mampu menaikkan pendapatan sekitar 15-20% dari total kapasitas. Ia menambahkan, awalnya kapal tol laut milik Pelni ini hendak mengangkut 36 kontainer. Namun yang terangkut hanya 29 kontainer karena kontainer sisanya belum siap. Kapal berusia 25 tahun buatan PT PAL Indonesia ini mengenakan tarif Rp 7-10 juta/kontainer. Harga tersebut sudah termasuk dengan biaya handling dan masuk pelabuhan tujuan. “Kapal tol laut ini merupakan terobosan pemerintah untuk memudahkan masyarakat dalam hal pendistribusian logistik dengan cepat dan harga terjangkau,” tandas Presda. (iwd/hen) bumi2009fans
Investasi Umum
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February 25, 2016February 25, 2016
46 Minutes
geregetan: indon di bawah chindia … 071010_210216 bbc.com: India’s economy grew at an average rate of 7.5% in 2015, faster than the 6.9% growth in China, official figures show (http://mospi.nic.in/Mospi_New/upload/nad_PR_8feb16.pdf). Indonesia LUMAYAN di bawah CHINDIA (http://wp.me/pRpAI-1R2) In recent history it has been unusual, but not unprecedented, for India to grow faster than China. According to the IMF it happened in 1981,1989,1990 and 1999, and 2015 was the first instance in this millennium. India’s government said growth in the October to December quarter was 7.3%, a slight drop on previous quarters which were revised sharply higher. Even though the economy lost steam in the last quarter, its pace of expansion was faster than the growth posted by China in the same quarter. India measures its economy over a fiscal rather than a calendar year. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government said growth for the fiscal year ending March 2016 is forecast to accelerate to 7.6%.
‘Counterintuitive’ However, some economists say the latest growth figures are at odds with other data for Asia’s third largest economy, including weak exports, railway freight, cement production and investment and flat order books. Ritika Mankar, an economist at Ambit Capital, said: “The new GDP series and the information it is conveying, not just in terms of level but also in terms of the direction, seems counterintuitive.” Shubhada Rao, chief economist at Yes Bank in Mumbai, said the figures were “difficult to correlate” with other data, including a contraction in agriculture. A year ago India’s statistics ministry revised GDP growth rates higher – closer to that of China – by updating the base year used for price comparisons.
Analysis: Yogita Limaye, BBC Mumbai Correspondent It’s fair to say there’s been a lot of scepticism about India’s GDP data since the government revised the way it calculates those numbers in January last year. All of the economists I’ve spoken to recently have said that they don’t see this rapid pace of growth reflected on the ground. But all of them also say that there’s no dispute India’s economy is expanding, making it a rare bright spot among emerging nations. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been travelling the globe and telling companies to come make in India. But the country is still a difficult place to do business in, and while the government has been working to try to reduce bureaucracy – some laws that could help ease problems are still stuck in parliament. Perhaps when that changes we’ll really begin to see the impact of faster growth. Ekonomi RI di Tengah Raksasa China-India Indonesia adalah negara dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi tercepat setelah China dan India. RABU, 6 OKTOBER 2010, 20:25 WIB Arinto Tri Wibowo, Purborini VIVAnews – Krisis global mengalihkan mata investor ke Asia. Dua raksasa ekonomi Asia, China dan India berhasil menikmati pertumbuhan cukup tinggi, sehingga mendongkrak perekonomian di kawasan Asia. Asian Development Bank (ADB) memprediksi perekonomian China bakal tumbuh 9,6 persen tahun ini. Meski pada 2011, pertumbuhan ekonomi sedikit melambat menjadi 9,1 persen. Sementara itu, pertumbuhan ekonomi di India diprediksi tumbuh sebesar 8,5 persen pada 2010 dan 8,7 persen selama 2011. Menurut Xingyuang Feng dari Chinese Academy of Social Science, pertumbuhan ekonomi China ditopang oleh kebijakan pasar terbuka yang diterapkan pemerintah. “Dengan ini kompetisi selalu terjaga dan setiap orang akan berlomba menjadi yang terbaik,” kata Xingyuang dalam sebuah diskusi yang diselenggarakan Freedom Institute di Jakarta, Rabu 6 Oktober 2010. Namun, optimisme China tersebut akan segera terkalahkan oleh India. Ada dua alasan kenapa pertumbuhan ekonomi India akan melebihi China. Pertama, adalah faktor demografi. Sumber daya manusia (SDM) di China diperkirakan mulai susut akibat kebijakan satu anak. Kedua, implementasi demokrasi di India. Pemerintah terpilih India saat ini memutuskan sebuah kebijakan berdasarkan pemilih mereka. “Sekarang semua politisi di India bicara soal infrastruktur jalan, karena kalau tidak mereka akan ditinggalkan oleh para pemilih,” kata Barun S Mitra dari Liberty Institute India. Barun memperkirakan faktor-faktor tersebut dapat membuat ekonomi India tumbuh hingga 10 persen. Menurut dia, kondisi di India itu juga diharapkan dapat membantu masyarakat mengubah kebiasaan yang pada akhirnya membawa perubahan. Lantas, bagaimana dengan Indonesia? Indonesia dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi sekitar enam persen dari rata-rata Asia 7,1 persen, merupakan negara ketiga tercepat setelah China dan India dalam hal pertumbuhan. Konsumsi domestik yang kuat dari tingginya angka penjualan kendaraan bermotor dan konsumsi bahan bangunan yang tinggi menjadi beberapa indikator pertumbuhan itu. Dana asing pun terus mengalir deras ke Indonesia. Total mencapai Rp115 triliun yang masuk ke berbagai instrumen investasi seperti obligasi negara, Sertifikat Bank Indonesia (SBI), dan bursa saham. Bahkan, beberapa lembaga keuangan asing masih merekomendasikan agar mereka membenamkan investasinya di Indonesia. “Lupakan Brasil, saatnya membidik Indonesia,” ujar Kepala Investasi Citigroup Private Bank untuk Asia, Debashish Dutta Gupta. Bank Pembangunan Asia (Asian Development Bank/ADB) pun menaikkan proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada 2010 dari 5,5 persen menjadi 6,1 persen. Angka ini lebih baik dari capaian pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada 2009 yang sebesar 4,5 persen. ADB juga memperbaiki proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada 2011 dari semula enam persen menjadi 6,3 persen. Namun, pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia hanya tumbuh di sektor konsumsi dan lemah di bidang industri. Untuk jangka panjang, pertumbuhan Indonesia dipandang tidak cukup berkelanjutan. “Dengan pertumbuhan enam persen per tahun, Indonesia hanya menyamai pencapaian Malaysia dalam 20 tahun ke depan, atau 24 tahun untuk menyamai pertumbuhan rata-rata ekonomi dunia,” kata Sjamsu Rahardja dari Paramadina Public Policy Institute. Sjamsu yang merupakan ekonom Bank Dunia ini juga menyayangkan mudahnya pemerintah terhadap pencapaian target. “Seharusnya pemerintah mengubah sikap permisifnya, jangan dengan pertumbuhan 6 persen Alhamdulillah, bagaimana ke depannya,” kata dia. Dia juga mengatakan nilai investasi yang dibawa oleh Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal (BKPM) belum pasti. “Jangan cukup berbangga sebelum menjadi kenyataan,” kata dia. Ia juga mengkritik kebijakan pemerintah yang cenderung memproteksi ketimbang membuka pintu investasi. “Ketika India membuka diri untuk service center, kami bicara bagaimana memproteksi hal ini,” kata Sjamsu. Pemerintah, menurut dia, seharusnya memikirkan langkah lain ketimbang proteksi. “Berikan insentif,” kata dia. Selain itu, dia menekankan pada belanja infrastruktur Indonesia yang tertinggal jauh dibandingkan China dan India. India telah merealisasikan belanja infrastruktur sebesar US$30 juta, sedangkan China US$100 juta. “Indonesia sangat kecil, hanya US$10 juta, bagaimana mau menyamai China,” kata dia. Guna menyokong laju pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (PDB) sebesar tujuh persen pada 2012, pemerintah perlu meningkatkan belanja modal infrastruktur dua kali lipat dari anggaran tahun ini. Tahun ini, pemerintah baru menghabiskan belanja infrastruktur sebesar 3,5 persen dari PDB. Percepatan pembangunan infrastruktur dapat mendorong investasi bidang ekonomi riil serta pertumbuhan PDB di atas tujuh persen. (sj) • VIVAnews bumi2009fans
Global neh
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February 21, 2016February 21, 2016
4 Minutes
devalua$1 Yuan : lapang DADA (04 Februari 2016)… inclusion of YUAN into IMF SDR basket MANFAATken MOMENTUM PENUNDAAN KENAEKAN THE FED FUND RATE K 2016 dengan KEBIJAKSANAAN BI RATE DI BAWAH 7% Washington, Nov 30, 2015 (AFP) The International Monetary Fund welcomed China’s yuan into its elite reserve currency basket on Monday, recognizing the ascendance of the Asian power in the global economy.The yuan, also known as the renminbi, will join the US dollar, euro, Japanese yen and British pound in the basket of currencies the IMF uses as an international reserve asset.JAKARTAKeputusan Dana Moneter Internasional (IMF) memasukkan yuan Tiongkok dalam keranjang mata uang cadangan elitnya hanya didasarkan pada pertimbangan “teknis” , juru bicara Gerry Rice mengatakan, Kamis.Pengumuman IMF tentang pemasukan yuan ke dalam keranjang Special Drawing Rights (SDR)-nya pada Senin, memicu tuduhan bahwa IMF tunduk pada tekanan dari Tiongkok, karena Beijing berupaya mencari pengakuan global yang lebih besar atas kekuatan ekonominya.”Ini adalah proses teknis yang berlangsung selama jangka waktu panjang dan keputusan yang secara tegas berbasis di kriteria teknis,” kata Rice dalam menanggapi sebuah pertanyaan dalam konferensi pers.Dalam kajian keranjang mata uang SDR, yang berlangsung sekali setiap lima tahun, IMF menetapkan bahwa yuan, juga dikenal sebagai renminbi, memenuhi dua kondisi yang diperlukan — digunakan secara luas dan “bebas digunakan”.”Kriteria tersebut telah ditata sejak awal” dan telah dijelas, kata Rice.”Ini telah dilakukan dengan cara yang mungkin paling transparan,” katanya, menambahkan bahwa keputusan untuk menyertakan yuan itu “sepenuhnya didukung” oleh 188 negara anggota IMF.Rice juga menekankan bahwa “tidak ada hubungan” antara keputusan yuan dan ketidaksabaran beberapa kekuatan negara berkembang, termasuk Tiongkok, atas reformasi macet AS yang akan memberi mereka lebih banyak beban dalam institusi itu. Yuan akan bergabung dengan dolar, euro, yen dan pound dalam keranjang IMF pada 1 Oktober 2016.(ant/hrb) Â http://id.beritasatu.com/international/mf-bantah-keputusan-yuan-tiongkok-adalah-politis/134435 (http://id.beritasatu.com/international/mf-bantah-keputusan-yuan-tiongkok-adalahpolitis/134435) Sumber : INVESTOR DAILY CATATAN DEPRESIASI (“devaluasi”) YUAN 2014 n 2012: Bonds | Wed May 23, 2012 5:17am EDT Related: Currencies, (http://www.reuters.com/finance/currencies) Bonds, (http://www.reuters.com/finance/bonds) Markets (http://www.reuters.com/finance/markets)
CHINA MONEY-Yuan depreciation a realistic possibility * Euro zone crisis worse than expected, dollar jumps * China economy, including foreign trade, hit hard * PBOC signals tolerance of measured depreciation By Lu Jianxin and Pete Sweeney (http://blogs.reuters.com/search/journalist.php?edition=us&n=petesweeney&) SHANGHAI, May 23 (Reuters) – Yuan traders are reconsidering a widely-held assumption that the currency would appreciate 2-3 percent this year as an unexpected worsening of global economic conditions and a slowdown in China drives investors toward safer havens. A debt crisis in the euro zone has of late developed into a political problem as well, with risk aversion driving the dollar index to its highest since September 2010 on Wednesday, casting doubt on whether Beijing can afford to let the yuan to continue to strengthen against the dollar. More significantly, China posted a stream of weak economic data for April, which caused the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to hastily reduce banks’ reserve requirement ratios, injecting liquidity into the economy. The news and the ensuing cut exacerbated concerns over the health of the world’s second-largest economy. As a result, traders say banks and their clients started to erect yuan short positions during the dollar rally this month. “While the PBOC may not let the yuan to depreciate sharply, moderate depreciation could increasingly be a choice for the government to deter the deterioration of China’s exports,” said a senior trader at a European bank trading at the China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS) in Shanghai. The PBOC has already signaled that it will tolerate a measured relaxation of the yuan through the officially set midpoint exchange rate. Over the last eight days, the PBOC has consecutively relaxed the midpoint fixing, weakening the official rate by 0.26 percent. But at the same time, the central bank has kept the midpoint above the spot rate, which some traders interpret as a signal that it intends to keep the exchange rate relatively stable and not permit any sharp decline. In the medium run, the central bank will decide on the yuan’s direction based on economic events and thus could potentially allow the yuan to depreciate by the end of this year, according to a private survey of eight China-based traders. The yuan could fall or rise up to about 2 percent in 2012, to trade between 6.46 and 6.2 against the dollar by the end of the year, said the traders, a stark contrast to an overwhelming view for yuan appreciation seen at the beginning of this year. The traders are not authorised to have their names and organisations to be put on record according to company rules. MEASURED DEPRECIATION Spot yuan is trading around 6.33 per dollar on Wednesday, having dropped 0.6 percent so far this year. And the currency’s real effective exchange rate (REER), which indicates its value against a trade-weighted basket after adjustments based on inflation, fell 0.53 percent for the year through April, according to the latest data issued by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) issued last week. A sharply depreciating yuan could divert funds from China and may ended up adding pressure to growth, traders said. Growth in China’s gross domestic product slowed to a near three-year low of 8.1 percent in the first quarter. Many economists now believe the growth of the world’s second-largest economy could fall below 8 percent in the second quarter. At the start of this year, many economists forecast that 8.5 percent growth for China for this year would severely startle markets. “There are so many surprises on the macroeconomic front recently that it will no longer be a surprise if the yuan closes the year with a slight depreciation,” said a dealer at a North American bank in Shanghai. INFLOWS SLOW Among a slew of weaker data, weakening foreign trade was particularly striking as it signaled slower capital inflows into China. Such a slowdown is relieving appreciation pressure on the yuan and reducing the need for the PBOC to intervene in trading to prevent the yuan from rising as it has been done for most of the time over the past decade. Last week, the PBOC reported that it and Chinese financial institutions sold a net 60.6 billion yuan ($9.6 billion) in foreign exchange in April, suggesting that Chinese companies are increasingly retaining dollars on hand. Until the fourth quarter of last year, the PBOC and commercial banks typically bought large amounts of dollars from domestic firms eager to trade for yuan, but the slowdown has apparently changed attitudes, traders said. “The trend for firms to sell their dollars as soon as they got hold of them began reversing from the fourth quarter last year,” said a trader at a Chinese state-owned bank in Shanghai. “The PBOC no longer needs to buy as many dollars as it did before to help curb the yuan’s appreciation. April’s forex sales indicated that the central bank has already drastically reduced its intervention in trading.” The wild card, of course, is how the United States, which faces presidential election this year, will respond to a pause in yuan appreciation. There has always been a strong diplomatic aspect to the yuan exchange rate, and much of the rises in its value against the dollar have been in reaction – albeit usually delayed – to U.S. pressure. Feb 25, 2014 @ 11:14 PM 44,722 views Why The Chinese Yuan Is Weakening Against The DollarKenneth Rapoza ,Contributor Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.And there goes the yuan. Recommended by ForbesFirst of all, it’s not as bad as it looks. Or one should hope. China is still a closed economy. The government controls the foreign exchange rate. But one look at a USD-CNY chart and it’s obvious that the Central Bank of China BACHY +% is worried about something. Either a slow domestic economy, or a worsening international one. The dollar has gone straight up against the yuan since Feb. 18. The currency is now worth 6.12 to the dollar when a month ago it was around 6.04. A year ago it was 6.22, so the yuan continues to appreciate as the market expects, and as the government of China promised.For the fifth consecutive day, the Central Bank has fixed the reference renminbi rate weaker. Over the past five trading days the CNY (onshore renminbi) has lost 0.6% against the dollar and the offshore renminbi — which tends to trade at stronger levels — has lost 1.1%. Barclays Capital says increased volatility in the carry trade between short U.S. dollar positions and long Chinese yuan are being unwound. Moreover, a weaker yuan is now part of Central Bank short-term strategy. In a worse case scenario, should their strategy not work, spill-over is expected throughout Asia. And maybe even some developed markets with close China ties, such as Japan and Australia.Barclays Capital says increased volatility in the carry trade between short U.S. dollar positions and long Chinese yuan are being unwound. Moreover, a weaker yuan is now part of Central Bank short-term strategy. In a worse case scenario, should their strategy not work, spill-over is expected throughout Asia. And maybe even some developed markets with close China ties, such as Japan and Australia.Although the move is small relative to how most floating currencies trade, it is a significant adjustment for what is essentially still a managed currency. If the weakening persists, says Barclays Capital analysts Chris Walker and Koon Chow, it could lead to some contagion into other currencies, starting with Taiwanese Dollar and Korean Won.Sustained yuan weakness for offshore and onshore over a few months would have even greater contagion effects.Walker and Chow give two reasons for the Central Bank’s decision to weaken its currency.1. The Carry-Trade.Speculators who are long yuan and short the dollar have added to the volatility. The market now seems to be cleaning out these short dollar positions. With risk-adjusted carry falling elsewhere, investors have also used the dollar-yuan trade to swap their currency positions for higher-yielding and longer duration onshore alternatives, mainly 10-year local government bonds yielding as much as 4.7%. This has the benefit of introducing more two-way risk in to the currency, which is prudent from a long-term financial markets reform perspective. Moreover, it could curb the future growth of carry trade-related inflows that otherwise would complicate the Chinese authorities’ goal of deleveraging some parts of the economy.2. New Thinking at Central BankThere has been a shift to a more neutral policy in a context of weakening growth momentum and looming signs of problems in the financial sector. Let’s not forget the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China’s (ICBC) failed wealth management product China Credit Equals Gold #1. The Central Bank has been worried about its smaller municipal lenders. The ICBC trust fund bailout clearly raised the warning level.If this is the main motivation behind policymakers weakening the currency, then it leaves the door open to further official dollar buying to drive depreciation if growth were to falter further, BarCap economists said on Tuesday in a research note to clients. The last period of depreciation against the dollar since China moved away from the currency peg was between May and July 2012, when it fell around 2%. Year-to-date, the yuan is down around 0.7% to the dollar.Walker and Chow think the weak yuan may be temporary. But if not, it would entail greater spillover to other emerging market currencies, and potentially to developed ones like the Japanese yen. The report did not mention which developed market currencies might be impacted, however.Furthermore, modest depreciation and a further increase in volatility between the mainland yuan and the offshore one, aimed at stopping out carry trades, would be a short-term concern for investors. For Barclays, the yuan will strengthen again this year, finally topping out below 6 to one for the first time.“If we are looking at the beginning of some competitive depreciation — aimed at supporting exports and growth — the contagion implications are greater,” the analysts wrote in a research note today.“In such a scenario, we would expect investors to turn more defensive on regional currencies on expectations that policymakers elsewhere could adjust their currency strategy,” they said. China’s leaders have warned their people they need to accommodate a “new normal” of economic growth far slower than the rate that propelled the economy into the world’s secondlargest in the past two decades. As WSJ’s James T. Areddy and Lingling Wei report: Now, the rest of the world also needs to get used to the new normal: a China in the midst of a tectonic shift in its giant economy that is rattling markets world-wide. The slowdown deepening this year is part of a bumpy transition away from an era when smokestack industries, huge exports and massive infrastructure spending—underpinned by trillions in state-backed debt—powered China’s seemingly unstoppable rise. Today, debt has swelled to more than twice the size of the economy, and some of those industries, such as construction and steel, are reeling. Instead of them, China is pushing services, consumer spending and private entrepreneurship as new drivers of growth that rely less on debt and more on the stock market for funding.
The Chinese stock market rout and shock yuan devaluation are unlikely to develop into an economic crisis despite the hit China’s GDP will take from slower growth in the financial services sector, UBS economists say. They note that equities account for just 13 per cent of household wealth in China, adding that the government will likely continue to use policy tools to stabilise growth and promote more funding to the real economy. But with more than 10 per cent of Asia-Pacific’s exports going to China last year, it is not surprising that the region has felt pain from the slowdown of the world’s second-largest economy. UBS Asian currency strategist Tan Teck Leng believes the consequences of yuan devaluation are “outright negative” for Asian currencies as their exports to China, which represent 44 per cent of the region’s GDP, tend to be sizeable while exports to Europe and the United States are exposed to regional competition. “We believe central banks in the region are unlikely to stem any currency weakening against the US dollar, as disappointing growth numbers across most Asian economies and subdued inflationary pressure give them few reasons to do so,” Mr Tan said. LESSER THREAT We believe central banks in the region are unlikely to stem any currency weakening against the US dollar, as disappointing growth numbers across most Asian economies and subdued inflationary pressure give them few reasons to do so. UBS ASIAN CURRENCY STRATEGIST TAN TECK LENG, on the impact of the US dollar strengthening versus the yuan devaluation UBS regional chief investment officer Kelvin Tay also downplayed fears that the ringgit’s dramatic falls could presage another Asian financial crisis. “Much of the current weakness in Asian currencies is due to broad-based US dollar strength. Unlike 1997, Asian central banks, especially those with limited foreign reserves, have welcomed currency weakness as a valve to lessen pressure on economic growth and rectify current account imbalances,” he said. “With the exchange rate levels fairly aligned with the region’s macro fundamentals, coupled with foreign reserves and current account balances on a much stronger footing than in the late 1990s, a repeat of the Asian crisis is unlikely.” But while Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea and Thailand have fairly robust current account surpluses that could weather rising US interest rates, their currencies are highly sensitive to further yuan weakness, he said. The Singdollar, which is managed on a trade-weighted basis, will be directly affected by weakness in the yuan and other Asian currencies that track the Chinese currency. “Investors seeking to hedge against further yuan decline might use one of these currencies as a proxy, since it is less expensive to short low-interest yielding currencies,” Mr Tay said. While most countries, including Malaysia, still have sufficient current account surpluses to offset capital outflow, its reserves cover of “six months worth of imports is among the lowest in global emerging markets, while its coverage ratio for short-term external debt is the worst in global emerging markets”. “That is one reason why the ringgit is under attack. But even at today’s levels, the ringgit has moved beyond that which is justified, based on the decline in commodity prices,” Mr Tay added. “Malaysia exports a lot of natural gas and palm oil. Those prices haven’t fallen as much, yet the ringgit has fallen 20 per cent over the past 12 months. That is a bit unjustified. But the current account surplus should still remain because a weaker currency means Malaysia will import less as well.” A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Sunday Times on August 30, 2015, with the headline ‘China slowdown unlikely to become a crisis: UBS’. CATATAN DEPRESIASI (“devaluasi”) YUAN 2014 n 2012: Bonds | Wed May 23, 2012 5:17am EDT Related: Currencies, (http://www.reuters.com/finance/currencies) Bonds, (http://www.reuters.com/finance/bonds) Markets (http://www.reuters.com/finance/markets)
CHINA MONEY-Yuan depreciation a realistic possibility * Euro zone crisis worse than expected, dollar jumps * China economy, including foreign trade, hit hard * PBOC signals tolerance of measured depreciation By Lu Jianxin and Pete Sweeney (http://blogs.reuters.com/search/journalist.php?edition=us&n=petesweeney&) SHANGHAI, May 23 (Reuters) – Yuan traders are reconsidering a widely-held assumption that the currency would appreciate 2-3 percent this year as an unexpected worsening of global economic conditions and a slowdown in China drives investors toward safer havens. A debt crisis in the euro zone has of late developed into a political problem as well, with risk aversion driving the dollar index to its highest since September 2010 on Wednesday, casting doubt on whether Beijing can afford to let the yuan to continue to strengthen against the dollar. More significantly, China posted a stream of weak economic data for April, which caused the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to hastily reduce banks’ reserve requirement ratios, injecting liquidity into the economy. The news and the ensuing cut exacerbated concerns over the health of the world’s second-largest economy. As a result, traders say banks and their clients started to erect yuan short positions during the dollar rally this month. “While the PBOC may not let the yuan to depreciate sharply, moderate depreciation could increasingly be a choice for the government to deter the deterioration of China’s exports,” said a senior trader at a European bank trading at the China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS) in Shanghai. The PBOC has already signaled that it will tolerate a measured relaxation of the yuan through the officially set midpoint exchange rate. Over the last eight days, the PBOC has consecutively relaxed the midpoint fixing, weakening the official rate by 0.26 percent. But at the same time, the central bank has kept the midpoint above the spot rate, which some traders interpret as a signal that it intends to keep the exchange rate relatively stable and not permit any sharp decline. In the medium run, the central bank will decide on the yuan’s direction based on economic events and thus could potentially allow the yuan to depreciate by the end of this year, according to a private survey of eight China-based traders. The yuan could fall or rise up to about 2 percent in 2012, to trade between 6.46 and 6.2 against the dollar by the end of the year, said the traders, a stark contrast to an overwhelming view for yuan appreciation seen at the beginning of this year. The traders are not authorised to have their names and organisations to be put on record according to company rules. MEASURED DEPRECIATION Spot yuan is trading around 6.33 per dollar on Wednesday, having dropped 0.6 percent so far this year. And the currency’s real effective exchange rate (REER), which indicates its value against a trade-weighted basket after adjustments based on inflation, fell 0.53 percent for the year through April, according to the latest data issued by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) issued last week. A sharply depreciating yuan could divert funds from China and may ended up adding pressure to growth, traders said. Growth in China’s gross domestic product slowed to a near three-year low of 8.1 percent in the first quarter. Many economists now believe the growth of the world’s second-largest economy could fall below 8 percent in the second quarter. At the start of this year, many economists forecast that 8.5 percent growth for China for this year would severely startle markets. “There are so many surprises on the macroeconomic front recently that it will no longer be a surprise if the yuan closes the year with a slight depreciation,” said a dealer at a North American bank in Shanghai. INFLOWS SLOW Among a slew of weaker data, weakening foreign trade was particularly striking as it signaled slower capital inflows into China. Such a slowdown is relieving appreciation pressure on the yuan and reducing the need for the PBOC to intervene in trading to prevent the yuan from rising as it has been done for most of the time over the past decade. Last week, the PBOC reported that it and Chinese financial institutions sold a net 60.6 billion yuan ($9.6 billion) in foreign exchange in April, suggesting that Chinese companies are increasingly retaining dollars on hand. Until the fourth quarter of last year, the PBOC and commercial banks typically bought large amounts of dollars from domestic firms eager to trade for yuan, but the slowdown has apparently changed attitudes, traders said. “The trend for firms to sell their dollars as soon as they got hold of them began reversing from the fourth quarter last year,” said a trader at a Chinese state-owned bank in Shanghai. “The PBOC no longer needs to buy as many dollars as it did before to help curb the yuan’s appreciation. April’s forex sales indicated that the central bank has already drastically reduced its intervention in trading.” The wild card, of course, is how the United States, which faces presidential election this year, will respond to a pause in yuan appreciation. There has always been a strong diplomatic aspect to the yuan exchange rate, and much of the rises in its value against the dollar have been in reaction – albeit usually delayed – to U.S. pressure. Feb 25, 2014 @ 11:14 PM 44,722 views Why The Chinese Yuan Is Weakening Against The DollarKenneth Rapoza ,Contributor Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.And there goes the yuan. Recommended by ForbesFirst of all, it’s not as bad as it looks. Or one should hope. China is still a closed economy. The government controls the foreign exchange rate. But one look at a USD-CNY chart and it’s obvious that the Central Bank of China BACHY +% is worried about something. Either a slow domestic economy, or a worsening international one. The dollar has gone straight up against the yuan since Feb. 18. The currency is now worth 6.12 to the dollar when a month ago it was around 6.04. A year ago it was 6.22, so the yuan continues to appreciate as the market expects, and as the government of China promised.For the fifth consecutive day, the Central Bank has fixed the reference renminbi rate weaker. Over the past five trading days the CNY (onshore renminbi) has lost 0.6% against the dollar and the offshore renminbi — which tends to trade at stronger levels — has lost 1.1%. Barclays Capital says increased volatility in the carry trade between short U.S. dollar positions and long Chinese yuan are being unwound. Moreover, a weaker yuan is now part of Central Bank short-term strategy. In a worse case scenario, should their strategy not work, spill-over is expected throughout Asia. And maybe even some developed markets with close China ties, such as Japan and Australia.Barclays Capital says increased volatility in the carry trade between short U.S. dollar positions and long Chinese yuan are being unwound. Moreover, a weaker yuan is now part of Central Bank short-term strategy. In a worse case scenario, should their strategy not work, spill-over is expected throughout Asia. And maybe even some developed markets with close China ties, such as Japan and Australia.Although the move is small relative to how most floating currencies trade, it is a significant adjustment for what is essentially still a managed currency. If the weakening persists, says Barclays Capital analysts Chris Walker and Koon Chow, it could lead to some contagion into other currencies, starting with Taiwanese Dollar and Korean Won.Sustained yuan weakness for offshore and onshore over a few months would have even greater contagion effects.Walker and Chow give two reasons for the Central Bank’s decision to weaken its currency.1. The Carry-Trade.Speculators who are long yuan and short the dollar have added to the volatility. The market now seems to be cleaning out these short dollar positions. With risk-adjusted carry falling elsewhere, investors have also used the dollar-yuan trade to swap their currency positions for higher-yielding and longer duration onshore alternatives, mainly 10-year local government bonds yielding as much as 4.7%. This has the benefit of introducing more two-way risk in to the currency, which is prudent from a long-term financial markets reform perspective. Moreover, it could curb the future growth of carry trade-related inflows that otherwise would complicate the Chinese authorities’ goal of deleveraging some parts of the economy.2. New Thinking at Central BankThere has been a shift to a more neutral policy in a context of weakening growth momentum and looming signs of problems in the financial sector. Let’s not forget the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China’s (ICBC) failed wealth management product China Credit Equals Gold #1. The Central Bank has been worried about its smaller municipal lenders. The ICBC trust fund bailout clearly raised the warning level.If this is the main motivation behind policymakers weakening the currency, then it leaves the door open to further official dollar buying to drive depreciation if growth were to falter further, BarCap economists said on Tuesday in a research note to clients. The last period of depreciation against the dollar since China moved away from the currency peg was between May and July 2012, when it fell around 2%. Year-to-date, the yuan is down around 0.7% to the dollar.Walker and Chow think the weak yuan may be temporary. But if not, it would entail greater spillover to other emerging market currencies, and potentially to developed ones like the Japanese yen. The report did not mention which developed market currencies might be impacted, however.Furthermore, modest depreciation and a further increase in volatility between the mainland yuan and the offshore one, aimed at stopping out carry trades, would be a short-term concern for investors. For Barclays, the yuan will strengthen again this year, finally topping out below 6 to one for the first time.“If we are looking at the beginning of some competitive depreciation — aimed at supporting exports and growth — the contagion implications are greater,” the analysts wrote in a research note today.“In such a scenario, we would expect investors to turn more defensive on regional currencies on expectations that policymakers elsewhere could adjust their currency strategy,” they said. China’s leaders have warned their people they need to accommodate a “new normal” of economic growth far slower than the rate that propelled the economy into the world’s second-largest in the past two decades. As WSJ’s James T. Areddy and Lingling Wei report: Now, the rest of the world also needs to get used to the new normal: a China in the midst of a tectonic shift in its giant economy that is rattling markets world-wide. The slowdown deepening this year is part of a bumpy transition away from an era when smokestack industries, huge exports and massive infrastructure spending—underpinned by trillions in state-backed debt—powered China’s seemingly unstoppable rise. Today, debt has swelled to more than twice the size of the economy, and some of those industries, such as construction and steel, are reeling. Instead of them, China is pushing services, consumer spending and private entrepreneurship as new drivers of growth that rely less on debt and more on the stock market for funding.
The Chinese stock market rout and shock yuan devaluation are unlikely to develop into an economic crisis despite the hit China’s GDP will take from slower growth in the financial services sector, UBS economists say. They note that equities account for just 13 per cent of household wealth in China, adding that the government will likely continue to use policy tools to stabilise growth and promote more funding to the real economy. But with more than 10 per cent of Asia-Pacific’s exports going to China last year, it is not surprising that the region has felt pain from the slowdown of the world’s second-largest economy. UBS Asian currency strategist Tan Teck Leng believes the consequences of yuan devaluation are “outright negative” for Asian currencies as their exports to China, which represent 44 per cent of the region’s GDP, tend to be sizeable while exports to Europe and the United States are exposed to regional competition. “We believe central banks in the region are unlikely to stem any currency weakening against the US dollar, as disappointing growth numbers across most Asian economies and subdued inflationary pressure give them few reasons to do so,” Mr Tan said. LESSER THREAT We believe central banks in the region are unlikely to stem any currency weakening against the US dollar, as disappointing growth numbers across most Asian economies and subdued inflationary pressure give them few reasons to do so. UBS ASIAN CURRENCY STRATEGIST TAN TECK LENG, on the impact of the US dollar strengthening versus the yuan devaluation UBS regional chief investment officer Kelvin Tay also downplayed fears that the ringgit’s dramatic falls could presage another Asian financial crisis. “Much of the current weakness in Asian currencies is due to broad-based US dollar strength. Unlike 1997, Asian central banks, especially those with limited foreign reserves, have welcomed currency weakness as a valve to lessen pressure on economic growth and rectify current account imbalances,” he said. “With the exchange rate levels fairly aligned with the region’s macro fundamentals, coupled with foreign reserves and current account balances on a much stronger footing than in the late 1990s, a repeat of the Asian crisis is unlikely.” But while Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea and Thailand have fairly robust current account surpluses that could weather rising US interest rates, their currencies are highly sensitive to further yuan weakness, he said. The Singdollar, which is managed on a trade-weighted basis, will be directly affected by weakness in the yuan and other Asian currencies that track the Chinese currency. “Investors seeking to hedge against further yuan decline might use one of these currencies as a proxy, since it is less expensive to short low-interest yielding currencies,” Mr Tay said. While most countries, including Malaysia, still have sufficient current account surpluses to offset capital outflow, its reserves cover of “six months worth of imports is among the lowest in global emerging markets, while its coverage ratio for short-term external debt is the worst in global emerging markets”. “That is one reason why the ringgit is under attack. But even at today’s levels, the ringgit has moved beyond that which is justified, based on the decline in commodity prices,” Mr Tay added. “Malaysia exports a lot of natural gas and palm oil. Those prices haven’t fallen as much, yet the ringgit has fallen 20 per cent over the past 12 months. That is a bit unjustified. But the current account surplus should still remain because a weaker currency means Malaysia will import less as well.” A version of this article appeared in the print edition of The Sunday Times on August 30, 2015, with the headline ‘China slowdown unlikely to become a crisis: UBS’.
mmmmmmmOOOOOOOOOOOmmmmmmmm the world weekly: The Chinese central bank on Monday boosted the price of its yuan currency by more than 0.5%, the most in a decade, ahead of an International Monetary Fund review that could see the yuan’s inclusion in its Special Drawing Rights basket of top currencies. Foreign exchange analysts said China’s application to the IMF was the only plausible explanation for the move by the People’s Bank of China [PBOC]. The intervention came amid signs that the slowdown in Chinese manufacturing output and exports had decelerated in October, but continued to shrink nonetheless.What you need to know: The PBOC fixed the yuan’s mid-price at 341 basis points, or 0.54%, stronger at 6.3154 to the US dollar, despite no additional demand from the private sector. The IMF board will meet on an as-yet undecided date during November and, among other issues, take a decision whether to include the Chinese yuan in the SDR basket of currencies. The private Caixin/Markit China Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index improved to 48.3 points in October from 47.2 in September. It is the highest reading since June, but a score of above 50 is required to indicate an increase in manufacturing output. The new-exports sub-index showed a marked improvement to 50.7 from 44.6 in September, however, indicating the positive impact of government stimulus. Those numbers are lower than the official Purchasing Manager’s Index reading of 49.8 for October, unchanged from September.
China’s market mess http://www.facebook.com/plugins/like.php? app_id=173277756049645&channel=http%3A%2F%2Fstaticxx.facebook.com%2Fconnect%2Fxd_arbiter.php%3Fversion%3D42%23cb%3Df11b7909%26domain%3Dwww.economis t.com%26origin%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.economist.com%252Ff3084e50ec%26relation%3Dparent.parent&container_width=0&href=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.economist.com %2Fblogs%2Fgraphicdetail%2F2016%2F02%2Fdailydispatches&layout=button_count&locale=en_US&ref=scn%2Ffb_ec%2Fchina_s_market_mess&sdk=joey&send=false&show_faces=false (http://www.facebook.com/plugins/like.php? app_id=173277756049645&channel=http%3A%2F%2Fstaticxx.facebook.com%2Fconnect%2Fxd_arbiter.php%3Fversion%3D42%23cb%3Df11b7909%26domain%3Dwww.economis t.com%26origin%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.economist.com%252Ff3084e50ec%26relation%3Dparent.parent&container_width=0&href=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.economist.com %2Fblogs%2Fgraphicdetail%2F2016%2F02%2Fdailydispatches&layout=button_count&locale=en_US&ref=scn%2Ffb_ec%2Fchina_s_market_mess&sdk=joey&send=false&show_faces=false) http://platform.twitter.com/widgets/tweet_button.baa54ded21a982344c4ced326592f3de.en.html#dnt=false&id=twitter-widget1&lang=en&original_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.economist.com%2Fblogs%2Fgraphicdetail%2F2016%2F02%2Fdailydispatches&related=theeconomist&size=m&text=Daily%20dispatches%3A%20China%E2%80%99s%20market%20mess&time=1454596651287&type=share&url=http%3A%2F%2Fec on.st%2F1NLFGaA&via=TheEconomist (http://platform.twitter.com/widgets/tweet_button.baa54ded21a982344c4ced326592f3de.en.html#dnt=false&id=twitter-widget1&lang=en&original_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.economist.com%2Fblogs%2Fgraphicdetail%2F2016%2F02%2Fdailydispatches&related=theeconomist&size=m&text=Daily%20dispatches%3A%20China%E2%80%99s%20market%20mess&time=1454596651287&type=share&url=http%3A%2F%2Fec on.st%2F1NLFGaA&via=TheEconomist) Our “daily dispatches” track short-term Chinese indicators—the CSI index of 300 Shanghai and Shenzhen stocks and the yuan-dollar exchange rate—refreshed every 24 hours with end-day closing figures throughout the working week. http://infographics.economist.com/2015/ChinaDaily/ (http://infographics.economist.com/2015/ChinaDaily/) IN EARLY July 2015 we launched our Chinese market “daily dispatches” in response to China’s stockmarket crash (http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21657395-panicked-responsetumbling-stocks-casts-doubt-pace-reform-china-embraces) which saw share-prices drop by a third, wiping out some $3.5 trillion in wealth (more than the total value of India’s stockmarket). These daily updates were designed to help readers keep abreast of the markets as Beijing attempted to keep them under control. A further mammoth plunge followed around five weeks later on August 24 —China’s “Black Monday”— and a fall of similar proportions the next day delivered another devastating blow, seeing share-prices down over 40% below their 2015 peak and losing all ground gained since the beginning of that year. The markets appeared to settle down shortly afterwards, and we ceased “live tracking” the data around mid-September (stocks actually gained more than 20% subsequently). But as of January 7th 2016 we are restarting the engines. China’s stockmarket was closed on January 4th after the CSI 300 index of blue-chip stocks plummeted 7%, and January 7th witnessed a tumble of similar magnitude, again causing a halt – this time, all in the space of 14 minutes (http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2016/01/chinas-broken-stockmarket) making it the shortest day’s trading in Chinese stockmarket history.
On January 19th, China reported its official annual GDP growth figure for 2015 at 6.9%, just a shade lower than 2014’s 7.3%. That is some achievement, given the turmoil in emerging markets and the sheer size ($10 trillion) of the economy. But the plunging Chinese stockmarket, the global commodity collapse and downward pressure on the yuan have fuelled a prevalent view that reality is grimmer. The two main concerns are that growth is weaker than the government says, and that much worse lies ahead. Beijing – Tingkat paritas tengah nilai tukar mata uang China renminbi atau yuan, melemah tujuh basis poin menjadi US$6,5585, Kamis (21/01/2016). Demikian menurut Sistem Perdagangan Valuta Asing China. Di pasar spot valuta asing China, yuan diperbolehkan untuk naik atau turun sebesar dua persen dari tingkat paritas tengahnya setiap hari perdagangan. Tingkat paritas tengah yuan terhadap dolar AS didasarkan pada rata-rata tertimbang harga yang ditawarkan oleh pelaku pasar sebelum pembukaan pasar uang antar bank setiap hari kerja. http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2268483/yuan-china-melemah-7-poin-terhadap-dolar-as (http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2268483/yuan-china-melemah-7-poin-terhadapdolar-as) Sumber : INILAH.COM WASHINGTON okezone – Setelah World Bank, kini giliran International Monetery Fund (IMF)memangkas proyeksi pertumbuhan global (http://economy.okezone.com/topic/5653/krisis-ekonomi) untuk ketiga kalinya dalam waktu kurang dari setahun. Hal ini seiring ekonomi Beijing yang tumbuh pada laju paling lambat (http://economy.okezone.com/topic/5653/krisis-ekonomi) dalam 25 tahun terakhir.IMF memandang perlambatan tajam di China akibat menurunnya ekspor dan lemahnya harga komoditas. Keadaan ini akan memberikan dampak signifikan bagi Brasil dan pasar negara berkembang lainnya. Oleh karena itu, IMF memprediksi ekonomi dunia akan tumbuh 3,4 persen pada 2016 dan 3,6 persen pada 2017. Perkiraan tersebut masing-masing lebih rendah 0,2 persen dari yang dibuat pada Oktober 2015. Oleh karena itu, otoritas China diminta untuk dapat membuat kebijakan jangka pendek. IMF mengatakan, risiko perlambatan permintaan curam di China untuk pertumbuhan global dan perkiraan impor dan ekspor yang lemah dari China akan membebani pasar negara berkembang lainnya dan para eksportir komoditas. “Kami tidak melihat perubahan besar dalam fundamental ekonomi di China, dibandingkan dengan apa yang mereka buat enam bulan yang lalu, tapi pasar sangat ketakutan dengan peristiwa sekecil apa pun, karena mereka merasa sulit untuk menafsirkan,” kata konselor ekonomi IMF Maurice Obstfeld dalam pernyataannya, seperti dilansir Reuters, Rabu (20/1/2016). IMF memperbarui World Economic Outlook pasar keuangan global setelah kekhawatiran atas perlambatan China. IMF memperkirakan ekonomi China akan tumbuh 6,3 persen pada 2016 dan 6 persen pada 2017, yang merupakan slowdowns tajam sejak 2015.
(mrt)
china daily: China’s growth will slow to 6.3% this year and 6.0% by 2017, although global growth is forecast to rise to 3.4% in 2016 and 3.6% next year, the International Monetary Fund said inits World Economic Outlook update. “The pickup in global activity is projected to be more gradual than in the October 2015 WorldEconomic Outlook, especially in emerging market and developing economies,” the IMF said inits report, issued on Tuesday. “Risks to the global outlook remain tilted to the downside and relate to ongoing adjustments inthe global economy; a generalized slowdown in emerging market economies, China’srebalancing, lower commodity prices and the gradual exit from extraordinarily accommodativemarket conditions in the United States. If these key challenges are not successfully managed,global growth could be derailed,” the IMF added. “This coming year is going to be a year of great challenges and policymakers should bethinking about short-term resilience and ways they can bolster it, but also about the longer-term growth prospects, ‘’ said Maurice Obstfeld, the IMF’s Economic Counsellor and Directorof Research. “These long-term actions will actually have positive effects in the short run by increasingconfidence and increasing people’s faith in the future,” he added. Robert Bergvist, chief economist at SEB, said China was now experiencing a cyclicalslowdown, which was coupled with a structural slowdown as the economy became moremature, as the country took steps to become a developed economy. “China’s importance to the global economy and financial markets is growing and we (the restof the world) must realise that China is an economic superpower. This is good for the worldeconomy but it means also that the problems China will experience in the future will beshared by the many countries. It’s also interesting how China will use its chairmanship of theG20 in 2016; This means that Beijing holds considerable sway over the global economicpolicy agenda this year,” he added. The IMF said China’s overall growth was evolving broadly as forecast, although there hadbeen a faster-than-expected slowdown in imports and exports, in part reflecting weakerinvestment and manufacturing activity. It also said there were market concerns about China’s future economic performance, althoughthe Washington-based body said manufacturing activity and trade remained weak worldwide,not just because of China but also because of subdued demand and a decline in investmentin what it called extractive industries. The dramatic decline in imports in a number of emerging and developing markets alsoweighed heavily on world trade. The IMF report, which was written before oil prices fell even further after December, said theplummeting price of oil had strained the fiscal positions of some producing countries;increased expectations of a sustained increase in production by OPEC members was alsohad an effect. The report was also written before the lifting of sanctions against Iran, announced this pastweekend, which some analysts said would release a further 1 million barrels of crude a yearonto the oil markets, further depressing the price. Risks to be faced included a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China, which would have aknock-on effect on trade, commodity prices and confidence, a further appreciation of thedollar, with tighter financing conditions exposing vulnerability in emerging markets. This couldinclude adverse effects on corporate balance sheets and fund-raising problems for those withhigh dollar exposure. The IMF also warned that continuing political tension in various regions would hit global trade,finance flows and tourism. Bergvist said excess production capacity, weak balance sheets of state enterprises andforeign currency debts will hamper economic growth but added ” I don’t believe in a hardlanding.” The IMF said there were two sides to the decline in the commodity markets; the downsideincludes a worsening outlook for already-fragile commodity producers, and widening yields onenergy sector debt could mean a broader tightening of credit. The upside, however, means a rapid decline in oil prices may lead to stronger demand inconsumer countries that import oil, based in part on perceptions by the consumer that priceswill stay lower for longer. “All in all, there is a lot of uncertainty out there, and I think that contributes to the volatility, andwe may be in for a bumpy ride this year, especially in the emerging and developing world,”Obstfeld concluded. “The IMF forecast for Chinese growth is not new or too much out of consensus. The UBSforecast is 6.2 for 2016, and 5.8 for 2017,” said Tao Wang, Chief Economist at UBS. “These forecasts are lower than the likely official growth target of 6.5pct. For us, we think theongoing property destocking and knock-on effect on the industrial sector will continue to putdownward pressure on the economy, which will not likely be fully offset by policy support. Inaddition, the need to closing `zombie’ companies and excess capacity will also mean slowergrowth. ‘’ she said “Despite this, China at 6.2pct or 6.3pct will still be a top contributor to global growth. Oneshould not be surprised at or emphasize too much at China slowing, since it is already a $10trillion economy. ‘’ Obstfeld told a press conference in London that China’s rebalancing of its economy wouldhave larger spillover effects than previously anticipated. “Currency management is one area that China’s government needs to have more clearcommunications with the market,” Obstfeld told reporters. The IMF said India and other emerging markets in Asia are expected to continue “at a robustpace” although China’s rebalancing and broader global manufacturing weakness may havean effect. Beijing beritasatu – Diplomat tertinggi Tiongkok, Kamis (14/1), mengingatkan bahwa dunia bisa menghadapi krisis keuangan baru setelah pasar mengalami gejolak di awal tahun ini, yang penyebab utamanya antara lain kekhawatiran terhadap perlambatan ekonomi di Tiongkok. “Tidak mungkin untuk sepenuhnya menafikan kemungkinan krisis ekonomi sekali lagi berlangsung. Masalah ini tidak boleh diabaikan,” kata Penasehat Negara Tiongkok Yang Jiechi. Ia menambahkan bahwa umat manusia sekarang hidup era perubahan yang konstan dan transformasi intens. Peluang dan juga tantangan sama-sama luar biasa. Berbicara pada pertemuan perwakilan G-20 di Beijing, dalam rangka pertemuan puncak pada September 2016 di kota Hangzhou, Yang mengingatkan bagaimana para anggota forum bekerja sama untuk meningkatkan kepercayaan setelah krisis global 2008. Yang mengatakan, mencegah atau mengurangi efek negatif dari langkah-langkah kebijakan dalam negeri negara-negara adalah tugas mendesak. Ia tampaknya merujuk pada kenaikan suku bunga acuan di Amerika Serikat (AS). “G20 tegas menentang proteksionisme,” ucap Yang. Pasar saham global, termasuk Asia, kembali tergelincir, pada perdagangan Kamis. Bursa Shanghai dan Shenzhen dibuka melemah tajam setelah sell-off di Wall Street pada penutupan Rabu karena kekhawatiran terhadap ekonomi Tiongkok belum hilang. Komentar Yang keluar sehari setelah data resmi menunjukkan data perdagangan Tiongkok pada 2015 jatuh 8% year-on-year menjadi US$ 3,96 triliun. Angka itu jauh di bawah target pertumbuhan pemerintah yaitu tumbuh 6%. Tarik ulur kebijakan dan intervensi di pasar saham domestik, bersama dengan depresiasi tak terduga nilai tukar yuan, telah merusak kepercayaan terhadap kemampuan pemerintah Tiongkok untuk menindaklanjuti reformasi. Tiongkok tengah menjalani transisi untuk menggeser perekonomian dari ketergantungan pada ekspor dan investasi menjadi berbasis pengeluaran konsumen. Tapi Yang menegaskan bahwa ekonomi Tiongkok akan mempertahankan tren keseluruhan pertumbuhan yang berkelanjutan dan stabil. Tiongkok mencatat kinerja ekonomi terburuk sejak krisis keuangan global pada kuartal ketiga 2015, dengan produk domestik bruto (PDB) naik hanya 6,9% atau terendah dalam enam tahun. Data resmi ekonomi kuartal keempat dan pertumbuhan tahunan akan dirilis, pekan depan. Aksi jual di Asia dan Eropa terjadi, Kamis, karena para investor tergerak oleh jatuhnya harga minyak mentah dan makin besarnya kekhawatiran terhadap prospek ekonomi global. Kejatuhan di Wall Street, Rabu, memangkas rally selama dua sesi sebelumnya dan memupus harapan rebound berkelanjutan setelah mengalami awal yang buruk pada 2016. Harga minyak mentah dunia pekan ini sempat anjlok hingga di bawah US$ 30 per barel atau terendah dalam 12 tahun karena kelebihan pasokan dan penurunan pasokan terkait perlambatan ekonomi Tiongkok. Leonard AL Cahyoputra/PYA AFP/Investor Daily Beijing, Jan 13, 2016 (AFP) China’s total trade volume fell seven percent year-on-year to 24.59 trillion yuan (around $3.74 trillion) in 2015, Customs said Wednesday, hit by slowing growth in the world’s second-largest economy and plunging commodity prices. The figure was far below the government’s target of six percent and marks the fourth year in a row that external commerce had missed its goal. China’s imports slumped 13.2 percent on the previous year to 10.45 trillion yuan, Customs said, while exports were down 1.8 percent to 14.14 trillion yuan. Imports have been hit by low prices for commodities such as oil and iron ore and the slowdown in China’s infrastructure boom, while exports have had to struggle with weakness in partner economies. The figures put in doubt China’s title as the world’s biggest trader in goods. US trade figures will not be released until February, but for the first 11 months of the year US trade amounted to $3.48 trillion on a total balance of payments basis, according to figures from the US census bureau. However, overall global trade contracted last year, Bloomberg News reported, so that China’s export performance was relatively strong. “China actually outperformed the rest of the world in exports, with its share in global exports rising,” it cited Larry Hu, head of China Economics at Macquarie Securities in Hong Kong, as saying in a report ahead of the data. A spokesman for China’s Customs said in a statement that “foreign trade of private enterprises shows vitality”. “Progress has been made in efforts to diversify trade partners,” the spokesman added. The European, United States and the Association of South-East Asian Nations are China’s top three trading partners. China’s annual trade surplus leaped 56.7 percent to 3.69 trillion yuan, Customs said. – Better than expectations – December’s figures offered a rare bright spot for the economy. Exports rose 2.3 percent year-on-year to 1.43 trillion yuan, Customs said, well ahead of economists’ forecasts of a 4.1 percent fall according to Bloomberg News. China has lowered the value of its yuan currency in recent weeks and months, which should make its exports more competitive on world markets. “The economy has shown signs of stabilisation. The export figures came in better than expectations,” Ma Xiaoping, a Beijing-based analyst at British bank HSBC, told AFP. “The depreciation of yuan helped with exports and overseas demand also strengthened with increasing new export orders. But it’s still uncertain whether this recovery is sustainable or not.” Imports fell 4.0 percent to 1.05 trillion yuan in the month, an improvement on the pace of decline in November. The December trade surplus jumped 24.7 percent to 382.05 billion yuan. Global investors have been alarmed by slowing growth in the world’s second-largest economy, which is expected to have expanded last year at its slowest pace in a quarter of a century. Official data on fourth-quarter and annual growth is due to be released next week. Beijing is seeking to transition the country’s growth model away from reliance on exports and fixed-asset investment towards a consumer-driven economy, but the reform is proving bumpy. China logged its worst economic performance since the global financial crisis in the third quarter of 2015, with gross domestic product (GDP) rising just 6.9 percent — its lowest level in six years. wf-bur/slb/dan
HSBC MACQUARIE GROUP
Currency Wars bloomberg: By Lucy Meakin | Updated Jan 7, 2016 6:49 AM EST Central bankers aren’t usually the ones who fight wars. But the global economy is a dangerous place, full of threats to prosperity. That’s given rise to the idea that there’s a tussle for competitive advantage (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-06/a-stealth-war-with-currencies-as-weapons-silent-killers) going on, with each country brandishing its currency as a weapon. The standard view assumes policy makers are driving down exchange rates so that goods made by their exporters can be sold cheaper overseas, providing a jump-start to the economy at home. When other nations retaliate, it ignites a currency war (http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21571888-world-should-welcome-monetary-assertiveness-japan-andamerica-phoney-currency-wars). Central bankers say (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-09/g-20-officials-say-currencies-reflect-economic-trends-not-war) they’re not trying to pick fights. Rather, they’re cutting interest rates and taking other steps to stimulate growth. That creates spillover, however, as money flees for countries with higher rates, pushing currencies higher and hurting exporters. Whether intentional or not, these unspoken currency wars still create peril — and real winners and losers.
The Situation The battle erupted again as China allowed the yuan to weaken (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-07/china-markets-in-turmoil-as-weak-yuan-fixing-sparks-stock-tumble) after its first major devaluation (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-11/china-weakens-yuan-reference-rate-by-record-1-9-amid-slowdown) in more than two decades in August. The slide raised concern that China could depreciate its currency further in 2016 to revive a slowing economy. Foreign-exchange markets were jolted when Switzerland surrendered (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-15/swiss-franc-surges-to-record-high-against-euro-as-snb-ends-cap) its three-year-old limit for the franc against the euro in 2015 and nations from Canada to Singapore unexpectedly eased monetary policy. At least 24 countries (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-02/the-great-global-monetary-easing-of2015-may-be-done-by-mid-year) cut interest rates last year, with the European Central Bank pushing further into negative territory. The currency wars have simmered for years as countries fought their way out of the recession triggered by the 2008 financial crisis. The U.S., Japan and Europe used bond-buying plans in addition to rate cuts to stimulate their economies. As the recovery limped along, central bankers eased policy further to ward off deflation (http://www.bloombergview.com/quicktake/deflation), or a drop in prices that can cripple spending and sap growth. Who’s taking the hit? Mainly the U.S. (http://www.bloombergview.com/quicktake/almighty-dollar), where the first interest rate increase in almost a decade pushed the dollar higher against all 16 of its major peers (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-31/yen-heads-for-record-fourth-annual-loss-as-central-banks-diverge) in 2015.
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG NEWS (http://www.bloombergbriefs.com/content/uploads/sites/2/2015/02/economicseurope_currency_wars_supplement.pdf)
The Background
Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega gave the currency wars their name in 2010 when he denounced (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2010-09-27/mantega-says-brazil-to-buyall-excess-dollars-in-bid-to-curb-real-s-gain) what he saw as the deliberate pursuit of weaker currencies. His country had been an early casualty in the fight, after lower U.S. rates sent money flowing into emerging markets, making Brazil’s commodity exports more expensive. One big winner (http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-09/the-yen-is-falling) was Japan, as the yen (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-12-29/yen-set-for-record-losing-streak-even-as-pace-slows-currencies) lost a third of its value against the dollar from the start of 2012 to the end of 2014, propelling profits for companies like Toyota (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-04/toyota-raises-profit-forecast-as-weak-yen-lifts-earnings-on-suvs). The most famous frenzy (http://www.bloombergbriefs.com/content/uploads/sites/2/2015/02/economicseurope_currency_wars_supplement.pdf) of competitive devaluations came during the Great Depression of the 1930s, as countries abandoned the gold standard that had pegged their currencies to the value of the metal. Until its collapse in 1971, theBretton Woods (https://www.imf.org/external/about/histend.htm) system prevented a repeat of such beggar-thy-neighbor strategies by linking the value of many currencies to the dollar. Over the last decade, China has faced criticism (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-10-15/u-s-says-china-shows-some-willingness-to-let-yuan-rise) for holding down the value of the yuan, as cheap goods helped transform the country into an exporting powerhouse.
The Argument
With central banks embracing unconventional policies (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-21/central-banks-step-up-low-inflation-fight-with-canada-rate-cut) to protect their economies, the race to the bottom has taken on new momentum. The fallout from policy moves can rattle (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-06/a-stealth-war-with-currenciesas-weapons-silent-killers) markets, whipsaw capital flows and fuel volatility (http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-16/no-one-was-supposed-to-lose-this-much-money-on-swissfrancs). More countries have turned to currency pegs (http://www.bloombergview.com/quicktake/currency-pegs) to stabilize their exchange rates, There are calls for clearer communication and a more united stance (http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-29/swiss-singapore-central-banks-show-need-for-coordination) from the world’s central bankers, since currency fluctuations create uncertainty and can crimp investment (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-06/a-stealth-war-with-currencies-as-weapons-silent-killers). The G-20 group of countries regularly renews (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-05/g-20-binds-china-to-currency-peace-pact-for-post-bubble-clean-up) its pledge (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-10/lew-warns-g-20-against-currency-devaluation-as-u-s-dollar-soars) to refrain from competitive currency devaluations, though it has stopped short of criticizing any nation for doing so. All the while, U.S. exporters are feeling the pain, putting the recovery of the world’s largest economy at risk (http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-02-06/america-is-ready-for-currency-wars). There’s a debate about how long the world’s economies can fight, and how they might make peace in the currency wars.
THE REFERENCE SHELF A Bloomberg Brief newsletter (http://www.bloombergbriefs.com/content/uploads/sites/2/2015/02/economicseurope_currency_wars_supplement.pdf) explored the roots of the currency wars. “Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis,” a book (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/d761be04-0a3a-11e1-92b5-00144feabdc0.html) by Jim Rickards (http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/). Nouriel Roubini, an economist at the New York University Stern School of Business, explains the conflict in this article (http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/worldgovernment-reliance-monetary-policy-by-nouriel-roubini-2014-12). A research paper (http://www.iie.com/publications/papers/gagnon201301.pdf) on currency manipulation from Joseph Gagnon, a former official at the U.S. Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury. BEIJING chinaDAILYasia – Overseas experts say that the Chinese economy is making major strides in theright direction, as the country is undergoing an upgrade of its development pattern from aninvestment- and export-driven model to one driven by innovation and consumption. Great changes Over the past few decades, particularly since the adoption of the policy of reform and openingup in 1978, great changes have taken place in economic development in China, and thepeople’s livelihood has significantly improved as a result, in sharp contrast to what used to bein the past. For centuries, China continued to disappoint foreign businessmen, “not least because manyordinary people have been too poor to buy anything.” But great changes have taken place inthe Chinese economy over recent years, which is being driven by new engines such as e-commerce, said a report published on The Economist in September. Official data showed that the scale of China’s e-commerce financial market reached 6 billionyuan ($937 million) in 2013 and online trade exceeded 15 billion yuan ($2.34 billion) in 2014.With a growth rate estimated to reach 94 percent in the next three years, the whole e-commerce market is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan ($15.62 billion) in 2017. New sectors of the Chinese economy have seen such rapid growth thanks to the optimizationand upgrade of its structure. In the eyes of Stephen Roach, senior fellow of Yale University’s Jackson Institute of GlobalAffairs, China has two models of economy: the old one driven by fixed investment andexports, and the new one boosted by private consumption. The old model, which fueled China’s economy growth in the past three decades, isdecelerating, while the new model is still in its incipient stage, he said at a seminar held inChina Institute of Global Affairs in November. Services activity grew 8.4 percent year on year in the first half of 2015, far outstripping the6.1-percent growth in manufacturing and construction, according to an article written byRoach recently. In 2014, the service sector contributed 48.2 percent to China’s Gross Domestic Product(GDP), exceeding the combined 42.6 percent share of manufacturing and construction,according to the article. The shift toward a services-based new model lifted the downside pressures in themanufacturing-based old model, he said. Roach predicated that the service sector could account for 65 percent to 70 percent ofChina’s economy in next 20 years. “The key understanding of China is not the number of GDP, but the mix of economy,” saidRoach. Market still attractive In the eyes of some entrepreneurs, the Chinese market, despite the slowdown, is stillattractive as it is being reinvigorated by the Chinese government’s reform and the new modelof the Chinese economy will generate great opportunities. “China’s economy is headed for a rough year or two, but the longer-term outlook for businessremains positive. Our members are staying here and investing in China’s future growth,”another report of The Economist quoted Jorg Wuttke, president of the EU Chamber ofCommerce in China, as saying. John Rice, vice chairman of General Electric Co, agrees that the easy gains in China havebeen made, but reckons that “many firms haven’t tried hard enough.” With a population of 1.4 billion, China packs such a punch that even niche markets like onlinedining and nail salons can amount to more than the entire car industry in a smaller country,the report cited Rice as saying. Many of China’s people are getting richer all the time, the report said. McKingsey, a consultancy, estimates that by 2020 the proportion of urban households withannual incomes of 15,000-33,000 US dollars (a rough definition of the country’s middle class)will be 59 percent, against only 8 percent in 2010, according to the report. “Chinese consumers are fast becoming the world’s most discriminating and knowledgeable.They are also quite brand licentious. The choice of top global brands there is much wider thanin America, Europe or Japan. This has resulted in fierce competition, pushing firms to comeup with ever more inventive offerings,” the report said. Clear-headed leadership Roach, the US expert on China, said an economic rebalance highlighting services andconsumption does not mean that Beijing has ignored traditional sources for growth. The Chinese government has unveiled the “Made in China 2025” plan, the first 10-year actionplan designed to transform China from a manufacturing giant into a world manufacturingpower, and “Internet Plus” action plan that aims to integrate the Internet with traditionalindustries and fuel economic growth. The move is in accordance with the innovation strategy highlighted by the Chineseleadership, which they think is the key to avoid falling into the middle income trap, a theorizedeconomic development situation where a country which attains a certain income will get stuckat that level, Roach said. McKinsey also said that China’s manufacturing industry is not declining. Instead, it isbenefiting from the investment on labor productivity, automation and regional network ofsupply, while the underdeveloped service industry will produce great opportunities. Louis Kuijs of the Royal Bank of Scotland pointed out that China’s income per person atmarket exchange rates in 2013 was only 13 percent of that of the United States, so there isplenty of scope for catch-up growth, particularly if the government adopts reforms that free upthe private sector, according to the Economist report. “China can look back on 2015 and be well satisfied with its economic performance,” saidProfessor James Laurenceson, deputy director of Australia-China Relations Institute,University of Technology Sydnedy. “I’m reassured that China’s leaders appear clear-headed about what needs to be done.Reform and challenging vested interests is never easy in any country but on the basis of whatwe’ve seen this year, there is greater cause for optimism than pessimism,” Laurenceson said. Besides, Beijing’s measures to encourage the development of renewable energy and greenindustry that helps reduce contamination, protect the environment and change China’s currentenergy structure, have “broad prospects for development,” Sun Qingyun, associate director ofthe US-China Clean Energy Research Center at West Virginia University, told Xinhua. Both Chinese enterprises and households have potential in reducing energy consumption.Upgrading some energy-consuming and outdated equipment and improving energy efficiencywill create new opportunities for investment and become a new approach for driving economicgrowth, Sun said. Beijing – Tingkat paritas tengah nilai tukar mata uang China renminbi atau yuan, menguat 130 basis poin menjadi 6,3851 terhadap dolar AS, Jumat (04/12/2015). Demikian menurut Sistem Perdagangan Valuta Asing China. Di pasar spot valuta asing China, yuan diperbolehkan untuk naik atau turun sebesar dua persen dari tingkat paritas tengahnya setiap hari perdagangan. Tingkat paritas tengah yuan terhadap dolar AS didasarkan pada rata-rata tertimbang harga yang ditawarkan oleh pelaku pasar sebelum pembukaan pasar uang antar bank setiap hari kerja. http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2257275/yuan-china-menguat-130-poin-terhadap-dolar-as (http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2257275/yuan-china-menguat-130-poin-terhadapdolar-as) Sumber : INILAH.COM BOGOR.kontan. Lembaga Moneter Internasional (IMF) telah mengungkapkan keberadaan proposal, untuk memasukan Yuan kedalam keranjang mata uang Special Drawing Rights (SDR). Artinya, jika disetujui maka Yuan akan setara dengan dollar AS, euro, yen dan poundsterling sebagai mata uang acuan aset internasional. Jika demikian, apa dampaknya bagi Indonesia? Menteri Keuangan Bambang Brodjonegoro mengatakan hal tersebut akan berdampak jika Indonesia memiliki aset dalam bentuk renmimbi. Misalnya, jika suatu saat Indonesia mengeluarkan surat utang dalam bentuk renmimbi maka bisa diklaim sebagai mata uang global. “Itu artinya Yuan sudah men jadi hard currency,” kata Bambang, Senin (23/11) di Istana Bogor. Selain itu dalam pencatatan cadangan devisa juga, keberadaan Yuan bisa dijadikan acuan dan diperhitungkan. Dengan begitu, bila Indonesia menumpuk Yuan bisa menambah jumlah cadangan devisa. Dampak lainnya, maka keberadaan Yuan di pasar juga akan jauh lebih mudah untuk didapatkan. Karena Yuan sudah menjadi mata uang internasional, membuat suplainya gampang.
chinadailyasia: RMB may make SDR a better stabilizer By Zhu Qiwen The inclusion of the Chinese currency into the International Monetary Fund’s basket of currency reserves looks imminent now. Some domestic investors are very excited about the expected rise in overseas demand for the Chinese currency and assets that may help boost the stock market at home. At the same time, some international media have played down the decision as being of token political importance because the IMF’s Special Drawing Right assets remain little used other than as an accounting device. Both views sound plausible. But the first wishfully exaggerates the benefit of the Chinese currency acquiring the status of a global reserve currency and ignores the fact that it will also facilitate outflows of domestic capital. China became a net capital exporter for the first time last year, and latest statistics show that China has made about 589.2 billion yuan ($95 billion) in non-financial investments in overseas markets in the first ten months of 2015, up 16.3 percent year-on-year. As China is to roll out more investment projects under the Belt and Road Initiative in the coming years, and Chinese enterprises are becoming more eager to expand overseas as domestic profits wane, a better internationalized Chinese currency will definitely accelerate China’s rise as the world’s top capital exporter in coming years. So while pinning their hopes on foreign demand for Chinese currency and assets, domestic investors should also prepare for the looming impact of a growing outflow of Chinese capital on the domestic stock market. As to the second view, it fails to see the potential role that a more diversified and better representative SDR may play amid the mounting global financial uncertainties. Among all the causes of the global slowdown, the United States’ pending decision to raise interest rates has already sown significantly increased global financial market volatility, and its implementation will produce tremendously disruptive moves in capital flows and asset prices. And as the US adjusts its monetary policy according to its domestic economic conditions, it is more than likely that other countries, especially developing ones that have to finance domestic investment projects with international capital, will bear the brunt of the resulting volatility in the global financial market. Admittedly, the inclusion of the Chinese renminbi in the SDR is not a direct answer to the excessive dominance of the US dollar in global financing and trade, which far exceeds the US’ share in the world economy. And the IMF can do little about this reality, so the move to make the SDR more diversified and better representative is of only symbolic importance for the moment. But if the inclusion of the Chinese currency in the SDR is viewed as the end of the beginning, rather than the beginning of the end, its potential to accelerate reforms not only in China’s financial and economic systems but also in the way that the global financial system is governed will make it a move of substantial and far-reaching significance. Domestically, a more internationalized currency will make financial reforms more urgent than ever to enhance the competitiveness of domestic financial institutions and better serve the real economy. Internationally, a better representative SDR will equip the IMF with a viable tool to better explore ways for it to play a greater role in stabilizing the global economy by mitigating the impact of global financial market volatility on underrepresented developing countries. So while the US is fueling uncertainties around the world by still dragging its feet over abandoning zero interest rates, the IMF’s inclusion of the renminbi in its SDR basket of currencies will add some weight to the side of certainty. The author is a senior writer with China Daily.
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[email protected]) HK STANDARD: Yuan trade curbed Thursday, November 19, 2015 China has moved to restrict trade at offshore yuan clearing banks, sources said yesterday, stepping up controls even as it positions the currency for inclusion in the International Monetary Fund’s reserve basket. Three sources with direct knowledge of the matter said offshore yuan clearing banks and related offshore participant banks had been instructed by the central bank to suspend trading in bond repos and yuan account financing. “We have already temporarily suspended trade in account financing and bond repurchases with onshore banks,” said a trader at an offshore yuan clearing bank. But yesterday the yuan fell to a 10-week low after a central bank official said China should accelerate the opening of its capital account, spurring talk there will be less intervention once it wins reserve currency status. ADVERTISEMENT The onshore yuan closed at 6.3849. China’s holdings of US Treasury securities fell to the lowest level since February as it pared its foreign reserves to back the yuan. The holdings were down US$12.5 billion (HK$97.5 billion) from August to US$1.258 trillion in September. REUTERS BEIJING kontan. Christine Lagarde, Managing Director Badan Moneter Internasional (IMF) pada akhir pekan lalu (13/11) menyatakan dukungannya atas penemuan proposal staf IMF untuk memasukkan yuan China ke dalam keranjang mata uang Special Drawing Rights (SDR). “Saya mendukung penemuan staf IMF,” demikian pernyataan Lagarde. Sekadar informasi, SDR merupakan aset internasional yang nilainya mengacu pada sekeranjang mata uang utama dunia. Saat ini, ada empat mata uang yang masuk dalam keranjang SDR, yakni: dollar AS, euro, yen, dan poundsterling. Menurut Lagarde, dirinya akan memimpin pertemuan jajaran direksi IMF pada 30 November mendatang. Salah satu agenda utamanya adalah untuk mempertimbangkan dimasukkannya yuan ke dalam keranjang SDR. Memang sebelumnya, Beijing terus mendorong agar yuan dapat masuk ke dalam keranjang IMF. Ini merupakan bagian dari tujuan strategi jangka panjang China untuk mengurangi tingkat ketergantungannya terhadap dollar AS. Masuk ke dalam keranjang SDR akan menjadi kemenangan manis bagi Beijing. Sebab, hal ini akan mendongkrak permintaan yuan di pasar finansial dunia dan menjadi simbol dimulainya China sebagai negara dengan perekonomian kedua terbesar dunia. Berdasarkan hasil penemuan staf IMF, yuan atawa renminbi, sudah memenuhi kriteria dapat digunakan secara bebas atau digunakan secara luas dalam transaksi internasional. Selain itu yuan juga sudah banyak diperdagangkan di pasar forex. Staf IMF juga sudah memberi lampu hijau atas upaya Beijing dalam menangani sejumlah permasalahan yang teridentifikasi pada laporan yang dirilis Juli lalu. Jajaran eksekutif IMF, yang mewakili 188 anggota IMF, sepertinya juga akan mendukung penemuan dan rekomendasi staf IMF. Tak terkecuali Prancis dan Inggris yang menyatakan dukungannya terhadap keinginan Beijing. Jika IMF menyetujui hal ini, maka, masuknya yuan ke keranjang SDR akan berlaku efektif pada Oktober 2016. Dengan demikian, Beijing akan memiliki waktu untuk mempersiapkan diri. Semisal yuan berhasil mendapatkan 70% dukungan dari jajaran direksi IMF, maka ini merupakan kali pertama dalam sejarah jumlah keranjang mata uang SDR ditambah. “Saya menilai, kemungkinan yuan masuk ke dalam keranjang mata uang IMF sangat tinggi. Satu-satunya faktor yang dapat menggagalkan hal ini adalah penolakan AS. Namun, berdasarkan pernyataan sejumlah petinggi AS tidak menunjukkan indikasi ke arah sana,” jelas Shen Jianguang, chief economist Mizuho Securities Asia. Reformasi ekonomi Memang, China sudah melakukan sejumlah reformasi beberapa waktu terakhir untuk meliberalisasi pasar finansial mereka serta membantu yuan dalam memenuhi persyaratan IMF. Sejumlah kebijakan yang dilakukan antara lain menetapkan batasan suku bunga deposito, menerbitkan surat utang tiga bulanan pada setiap pekan, dan memperbaiki transparansi data China. Ekonom menilai, dengan masuknya yuan ke dalam keranjang mata uang IMF, China harus membangun kepercayaan dengan investor global dan pemerintahan dunia. Pasalnya, intervensi yang masih dilakukan China untuk mengerem kejatuhan pasar saham mereka pada musim panas lalu dan devaluasi yuan yang dilakukan secara mengejutkan pada Agustus, memicu keraguan pelaku pasar mengenai komitmen Beijing dalam melakukan reformasi. Zhou Hao, ekonom Commerzbank yang berbasis di Singapura mengatakan China harus meningkatkan reformasi domestik dan memperbaiki transparansi kebijakan pemerintah. “People Bank of China (PBOC) harus mengurangi frekuensi intervensinya di pasar, dan menyerahkannya pada mekanisme pasar,” jelas Hao. Di sisi lain, PBOC menyatakan, pernyataan IMF merupakan pengakuan atas kemajuan yang dicapai China dalam melakukan reformasi dan membuka perekonomian mereka. “Inklusi renminbi dalam keranjang SDR akan meningkatkan keterwakilan dan daya tarik SDR, sekaligus membantu memperbaiki sistem moneter internasional saat ini, yang akan menguntungkan China dan negara lain di dunia,” demikian pernyataan resmi PBOC. PBOC juga menegaskan, pihaknya akan menghormati keputusan direksi IMF dan terus melakukan reformasi ekonomi. Di balik kengototan China Sebenarnya, apa alasan China ngotot memasukkan yuan ke dalam keranjang SDR? Menurut Marc Chandler, senior vice president and the global head of curreny strategy Brown Brothers Harriman, dengan melambatnya perekonomian Negeri Panda, memangkas nilai (devaluasi) mata uang mereka menjadi salah satu cara untuk mendongkrak kembali ekonomi. Namun, hal itu tidak terjadi pada tingkat ekspor sejumlah negara yang mata uang negaranya melemah. Sebut saja Jepang, Kanada, atau Australia. Meski mata uang mereka melemah secara signifikan, namun tidak diikuti kenaikan pada tingkat eskpor. Memang, secara bertahap, nilai tambah pada rantai manufaktur China mengalami kenaikan. Namun, biaya yang melibatkan yuan masih terbilang kecil dibanding negara perekonomian besar lainnya. Itu berarti, tingkat ekspor China tak terlalu sensitif dengan fluktuasi yuan, dibanding Jepang. Depresiasi yuan sebesar 3%-4% disinyalir tak akan berdampak besar terhadap ekspor China. Banyak yang berpendapat, strategi China terhadap yuan bertujuan untuk merkantilisme. Ini merupakan sistem ekonomi uantuk mengerek pertumbuhan negara melalui peraturan pemerintah di seluruh kepentingan komersial suatu negara. “Ini pendapat yang keliru,” jelas Chandler kepada Caixin.com. Menurut Chandler, intrik yang dilakukan China terhadap mata uang mereka didisain untuk meningkatkan internasionalisasi yuan. Secara khusus, upaya yang dilakukan pemerintah China ini dalam konteks mendorong yuan sehingga bisa masuk dalam keranjang mata uang SDR IMF. Ada dua persyaratan utama untuk mencapai tujuan tersebut: menjadi eksportir besar dan memiliki mata uang yang dapat diakses secara bebas. Persyaratan pertama tak sulit dicapai China. Tak diragukan, China merupakan eksportir terbesar dunia. Yang menjadi masalah saat ini adalah aksesibilitas yuan yang terbatas. “Kendati begitu, China terus berupaya memperbaikinya,” jelas Chandler. Lalu, apa alasan China bergabung ke SDR? “Sepertinya ini merupakan isu status dan prestis. “Cukup jelas bahwa ada tendensi China merasa diremehkan oleh Amerika dan negara-negara maju lainnya dan tidak mendapat penghormatan yang seharusnya mereka dapatkan,” paparnya. Chandler menyontohkan, China tidak diberikan hak suara di IMF. Lalu, kesepakatan Trans-Pacific diatur sedemikian rupa sehingga sulit bagi China untuk bergabung selama bertahun-tahun lamanya. Dengan bergabung dengan SDR, ini bisa menjadi batu loncatan bagi China untuk lebih dihargai di dunia internasional. LONDON (MarketWatch) — The perpetrators of Friday’s murderous attacks in Paris may have wished to drive a wedge through the international state community. In fact, one of the principal consequences of the massacre, as the weekend response of the Group of 20 leading economies showed, will be rapprochement among the U.S., Russia, China and Europe. In the financial sphere, Friday’s approval by the International Monetary Fund (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/imfs-lagarde-and-staff-support-adding-chinas-currency-to-sdr-basket-201511-13)approval by the International Monetary Fund of the Chinese renminbi’sUSDCNY, -0.0141% (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/currency/usdcny?mod=MW_story_quote) inclusion in to the special drawing right marks a broadening and deepening of the multilateralism under which the Fund was established seven decades ago. Friday’s decision, expected to be backed by the IMF’s board on Nov. 30, represents the first time that a currency of a developing country becomes a de jure reserve asset — official recognition of a momentous shift in the world power balance. International coordination may turn out to be synonymous with strengthening individual states and shoring up “strong leaders” who may value security more than human rights. Weekend talks on Syria between U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the G-20 in Antalya, Turkey, underline how two countries divided by Moscow’s invasion of Crimea are sinking their differences in a joint fight against the ISIS (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/paris-attacks-show-us-should-reverse-policy-on-syrias-assad-2015-11-14) terrorist movement. In similar vein, expected U.S. approval of the SDR change may herald American efforts to draw closer to Beijing in security and military issues, lowering emphasis on discord over cyberspace attacks or tension over Asian territorial claims. The IMF’s ruling that the renminbi is “freely usable” and thus can be included in the SDR from next October — despite the persistence of some Chinese capital controls — has geopolitical parallels. Lending weight to the IMF statement, capital flowed back into China last month for the first time since Beijing allowed the currency to fall in August as part of IMF-ordained efforts to integrate China more closely into the global economy. Paris Attacks Addressed at Group of 20 Summit (1:51)World leaders gathered in Antalya, Turkey, for the Group of 20 Summit, where they addressed how they planned to move forward after Friday’s attacks in Paris, France. Photo: AP Adjustment to global political realities may require departure from fully fledged ideals of Western liberalism. International reaction to what French President François Hollande correctly called an act of war portends deep-seated changes for Europe. International coordination may turn out to be synonymous with strengthening individual states and shoring up “strong leaders” who may value security more than human rights. The response east and west of the war zone of Syria and Iraq will significantly weaken the always-overstated concept of a border-free Europe that has plainly contributed to establishment of militarily organized terrorist cells within the EU. The aftermath of Paris will require a radical shake-up of European immigration procedures, reinforcing nationalist hardliners whether in Berlin, Paris, Budapest or Ankara. In Germany, where Chancellor Angela Merkel has come under fire (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/merkels-problems-and-more-qe-spell-weaker-euro-ahead-2015-11-10) for wellmeaning but naïve statements extending an over-welcoming hand to immigrants, the center-left coalition is likely to succumb to pressure for border controls. Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble has moved closer to an outright bid to dislodge Merkel, launching a thinly veiled attack on her last week by saying: “You can trigger avalanches when a rather careless skier goes on to the slope … and moves a bit of snow.” Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Polish party chief Jaroslaw Kaczynski are all leaders likely to benefit from a hardening of nationalist sentiment in Europe. Hollande has no choice but to move to the right to ward off a growing offensive from former President Nicolas Sarkozy and National Front chief Marine Le Pen. Hollande’s Socialist party faces a further setback in French regional elections next month and the presidential poll in April-May 2017 where, on present showing, Le Pen will win the first round and lose the run-off vote to a right-wing mainstream candidate. IBT: China’s currency, the yuan seems to be on track to be included in the International Monetary Fund’s benchmark currency basket, putting it on par with the dollar, euro and pound sterling. A draft report by IMF staff who have been assessing the yuan’s technical criteria seems to be favourable. Three people who had been briefed on the IMF discussions, said a draft report reached a favourable conclusion on including the yuan. “Everything is on course technically and there is no obvious political obstacle. The report leans clearly towards including the RMB in the [basket] but leaves the decision for the board,” one of the officials told Reuters. “There is no real discussion, no obstacles, all seems on course,” another IMF official said. A positive review by IMF staff will lower the hurdle for board approval as a 70% voting majority is needed rather than the 85% which is normally set for tough decisions. The IMF’s executive board is currently reviewing the Special Drawing Right (SDR), an international reserve comprising the major currencies – the euro, Japanese yen, pound sterling and the dollar. The SDR composition is reviewed every five years. There have been suggestions that China’s central bank has been aggressively trying to ensure that the yuan makes it to the basket in the current review. The review was scheduled to take place in November this year. However, the IMF has said that it is extending the SDR valuation basket (http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/imf-defers-yuansinclusion-sdr-basket-until-october-2016-1516233) by nine months from 31 December, 2015 to 30 September 2016, effectively deferring the widely-anticipated addition of the yuan to the basket. The fund had said that the proposal for the extension was put forward by its staff in a paper published in August. The extension paper was submitted to the executive board for review. In its statement it said the extension would give users, among others, sufficient time to adjust in the event of an addition of a new currency to the basket. Joining the SDR could not only boost the yuan’s international recognition and the use of the currency globally, it is also expected to lift China’s financial power. The move is also seen as Beijing’s long-term goal of reducing its dependence on the dollar and to place the world’s second largest economy as a serious economic power in the international arena.
So how hard is it going to be to get a Yes vote? Eswar Prasad, a professor at Cornell University and former head of IMF China Division said: “I think it will be very difficult for the IMF, especially given all that China has done this year, to deny China the prize it really wants,” he said. France and the UK have backed the move and Germany and Italy are among several who have said they are open to the move, depending on whether the yuan meets the technical criteria. The US is believed to have given conditional support for the yuan joining the SDR. China recently rolled out a series of reforms to liberalise its markets (http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/china-finally-loosening-its-grip-yuan-1515098) in a bid to help the yuan meet the criterion of being “freely usable” or widely used to make international payments and traded on foreign exchange markets. On Friday, China’s central bank announced that it was freeing the interest rate market by scrapping a ceiling on deposit rates. That is not all. China has started the weekly issue of three-month Treasury bills and plans to extend yuan trading hours to overlap with Europe. All these add to the tick boxes in the checklist of the technical criteria.
Implications of yuan inclusion Since the last SDR review, the global use of yuan has increased dramatically. It has become the fourth most-used currency in global payments with a 2.79% share in August, surpassing the yen, according to the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication or Swift. Bloomberg noted that adding the yuan to the SDR may also “help the IMF improve its standing with the Chinese”. It said China and other emerging markets were supposed to gain greater representation in the IMF under reforms agreed in 2010 but the US Congress has yet to ratify the changes. So what will happen when the yuan is placed in the SDR? According to Standard Chartered PLC and AXA Investment Managers, a least $1tn of global reserves are expected to migrate to Chinese assets. And foreign companies’ issuance of yuan-denominated securities in China, known as panda bonds, could surpass $50bn in the next five years, according to World Bank’s International Finance Corp. “Once the Chinese yuan becomes part of the SDR, a central-bank reserve managers and institutional investors will automatically want to accumulate yuan-denominated assets,” Hua Jingdong, vice president and treasurer at IFC said. “It will be strategically important for China to welcome all kinds of issuers to become regular issuers in China’s onshore market.” reuters: China’s yuan moved closer to joining other top global currencies in the International Monetary Fund’s benchmark foreign exchange basket on Friday after Fund staff and IMF chief Christine Lagarde gave the move the thumbs up. The recommendation paves the way for the Fund’s executive board, which has the final say, to place the yuan CNY=CFXS (http://www.reuters.com/finance/currencies/quote? srcCurr=CNY&destCurr=USD) CNY= (http://www.reuters.com/finance/currencies/quote?srcCurr=CNY&destCurr=USD) on a par with the U.S. dollar .DXY, Japanese yen JPY= (http://www.reuters.com/finance/currencies/quote?srcCurr=JPY&destCurr=USD), British pound GBP= (http://www.reuters.com/finance/currencies/quote?srcCurr=GBP&destCurr=USD) and euro EUR= (http://www.reuters.com/finance/currencies/quote?srcCurr=EUR&destCurr=USD) at a meeting scheduled for Nov. 30. Joining the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket would be a victory for Beijing, which has campaigned hard for the move, and could increase demand for the yuan among reserve managers as well as marking a symbolic coming of age for the world’s second-largest economy. Staff had found the yuan, also known as the renminbi (RMB), met the criteria of being “freely usable,” or widely used for international transactions and widely traded in major foreign exchange markets, Lagarde said. “I support the staff’s findings,” she said in a statement immediately welcomed by China’s central bank, which said it hoped the international community would also back the yuan’s inclusion. Staff also gave the green light to Beijing’s efforts to address operational issues identified in a report in July, Lagarde said. The executive board, which represents the Fund’s 188 members, is seen as unlikely to go against a staff recommendation and countries including France and Britain have already pledged their support for the change. This would take effect in October 2016, during China’s leadership of the Group of 20 bloc of advanced and emerging economies. China has rolled out a flurry of reforms recently to liberalize its markets and also help the yuan meet the IMF’s checklist, including scrapping a ceiling on deposit rates, issuing three-month Treasury bills weekly and improving the transparency of Chinese data.
RELATED COVERAGE › China central bank says welcomes IMF recommendation on SDR, to continue reforming (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/14/us-imf-china-yuan-pbocidUSKCN0T300D20151114?mod=related&channelName=ousivMolt) Economists said with the yuan’s inclusion in the IMF basket as a reserve currency now looking like a formality, China should step up efforts to build trust between global investors and its policy makers. China’s heavy-handed intervention to stem a stock market rout over the summer, and an unexpected devaluation of the yuan in August, had raised some doubts about Beijing’s commitment to reforms. Singapore-based Commerzbank economist Zhou Hao said China needs to further accelerate domestic reforms and improve policy transparency. “The PBOC should reduce the frequency of market intervention, allowing market forces to really play a critical role.” The United States, the Fund’s biggest shareholder, has said it would back the yuan’s inclusion if it met the IMF’s criteria, a U.S. Treasury spokesperson said, adding: “We will review the IMF’s paper in that light.” If the yuan’s addition wins 70 percent or more of IMF board votes, it will be the first time the number of currencies in the SDR basket – which determines the composition of loans made to countries such as Greece – has been expanded. “I would say that the likelihood of China’s yuan joining the IMF currency basket this year is very high,” said Hong Kong-based Shen Jianguang, chief economist at Mizuho Securities Asia. “The only thing that could deter this is if the U.S. led a group rejecting the yuan’s inclusion, which could complicate things. But the United States’ current official stance doesn’t reflect such an attitude,” he said. Some currency analysts say making the yuan the fifth currency in the basket could eventually lead to global demand for the currency worth more than $500 billion.
RELATED COVERAGE › U.S. to back adding yuan’s to SDR basket if it meets criteria: Treasury (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/13/us-imf-china-yuan-usa-idUSKCN0T22R920151113? mod=related&channelName=ousivMolt) But China’s extensive capital controls mean it would take a while before the yuan rivals the dollar’s dominant role in international trade and finance, analysts say. Its closed capital account still limits foreigners from buying yuan-denominated assets and places caps on how much cash residents can take out of the country. These restrictions, along with concerns that the yuan is set to come under steady depreciation pressure, may cause corporates to back off from holding yuan. Nonetheless, the People’s Bank of China said the IMF statement was an acknowledgment of the progress China had made in reforms and opening up its economy. “The inclusion of the RMB in the SDR basket would increase the representativeness and attractiveness of the SDR, and help improve the current international monetary system, which would benefit both China and the rest of the world,” the PBOC said in a statement. China would respect the board’s decision and continue to deepen economic reforms, the PBOC said. (Additional reporting by Timothy Ahmann in Washington, Jason Subler (http://blogs.reuters.com/search/journalist.php?edition=us&n=jason.subler&) in Beijing and Brenda Goh in Shanghai; Editing by James Dalgleish & Shri Navaratnam)
Washington, Nov 13, 2015 (AFP) IMF experts recommended Friday that the Chinese yuan be included in the Fund’s SDR basket of currencies, backing a strong push by Beijing to join the elite grouping. Now the world’s second-largest economy, China asked last year for the yuan to be added to the grouping, but until recently the yuan’s exchangeability on international markets has been deemed too tightly controlled by Beijing for it to fully qualify. IMF chief Christine Lagarde said in a statement that the staff experts, in their report to the IMF board, ruled the yuan or renminbi (RMB) now “meets the requirements to be a ‘freely usable’ currency.” That was a key hurdle to the yuan joining the yen, dollar, pound and euro in the Fund’s “special drawing rights” currency basket, seen as the leading currencies of international commerce. After years of keeping the yuan tightly controlled, China has moved over the past few years to allow it to be more widely used in international transactions. Lagarde said the staff experts ruled that Beijing has addressed “all remaining operational issues” required for SDR inclusion, which will be decided by the executive board at a November 30 meeting. “I support the staff’s findings,” she said, adding to expectations that the board will also back the yuan. The Fund has been generally receptive to the idea that the yuan could join the other four currencies in the grouping. While not a freely traded currency, the SDR is important as an international reserve asset, and because the IMF issues its crisis loans — crucial to struggling economies like Greece — valued in SDRs. On August 4 the IMF said the yuan fell short of meeting all the standards for inclusion, particularly on being “freely usable” in international finance. China’s economic slowdown complicated Beijing’s efforts to widen the currency’s use to meet that requirement. But there was strong pressure to do so because the IMF reviews the SDR basket only every five years, and the deadline for the current review is the end of the year. In a move seen as trying to accommodate China’s push for inclusion, on August 19 the Fund announced that it had extended by nine months the implementation of the basket revision, giving more time for adjustment to the potential inclusion of the yuan. If a decision to include the yuan is made this month, the actual inclusion could take place as late as September 30, 2016, giving Beijing more time to prepare. “The extension would also allow users sufficient lead time to adjust in the event that a decision were to be taken to add a new currency to the SDR basket,” the IMF said at the time. The recommendation Friday was broadly backed by the United States. “As we have previously stated, we intend to support the renminbi’s inclusion in the Special Drawing Rights basket provided the currency meets the International Monetary Fund’s existing criteria,” the Treasury Department said. “We will review the IMF’s paper in that light.”
Washington, Nov 12, 2015 (AFP) The IMF’s consideration of China’s yuan for inclusion in its SDR basket of elite currencies is on track with a decision possibly this month, Fund spokesman Gerry Rice said Thursday. With inclusion of the yuan in the SDR makeup a key policy goal of Beijing, Rice declined to speculate on the decision. But he noted that a crucial qualification, international use of the currency, also called the renminbi, is progressing. “The renminbi internationalization continues,” Rice told reporters at a news briefing. The board of the International Monetary Fund is expected to discuss China’s application to join the SDR this month. The Fund has been generally receptive to the idea that the yuan could join the US dollar, British pound, the euro and Japanese yen in the makeup of the SDR (special drawing right). While not a freely traded currency, the SDR is important as an international reserve asset, and because the IMF issues its crisis loans, crucial to struggling economies like Greece, valued in SDRs. China, now the world’s second-largest economy, asked last year for the yuan to be added to the grouping. But until recently the yuan’s exchangeability on international markets has been too tightly controlled by Beijing for it to fully qualify. On August 4 the IMF said the currency fell short of meeting all the standards for inclusion, particularly on being “freely usable” in international finance. But China’s economic slowdown has complicated Beijing’s efforts to widen its use and movements in its valuation, especially because the IMF reviews the SDR basket only every five years, and the deadline for the current review is the end of the year. In a move seen as trying to accommodate China’s push for inclusion, on August 19 the Fund announced that it had extended by nine months the implementation of the revision, giving more time for adjustment to the potential inclusion of the yuan. So that if a decision to include the yuan is made this month, that actual inclusion could take place as late as September 30, 2016, giving Beijing more time to prepare. “The extension would also allow users sufficient lead time to adjust in the event that a decision were to be taken to add a new currency to the SDR basket,” the IMF said at the time. the world weekly: The Chinese central bank on Monday boosted the price of its yuan currency by more than 0.5%, the most in a decade, ahead of an International Monetary Fund review that could see the yuan’s inclusion in its Special Drawing Rights basket of top currencies. Foreign exchange analysts said China’s application to the IMF was the only plausible explanation for the move by the People’s Bank of China [PBOC]. The intervention came amid signs that the slowdown in Chinese manufacturing output and exports had decelerated in October, but continued to shrink nonetheless. What you need to know: The PBOC fixed the yuan’s mid-price at 341 basis points, or 0.54%, stronger at 6.3154 to the US dollar, despite no additional demand from the private sector. The IMF board will meet on an as-yet undecided date during November and, among other issues, take a decision whether to include the Chinese yuan in the SDR basket of currencies. The private Caixin/Markit China Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index improved to 48.3 points in October from 47.2 in September. It is the highest reading since June, but a score of above 50 is required to indicate an increase in manufacturing output. The new-exports sub-index showed a marked improvement to 50.7 from 44.6 in September, however, indicating the positive impact of government stimulus. Those numbers are lower than the official Purchasing Manager’s Index reading of 49.8 for October, unchanged from September.
TOKYO — Pretax profit at Japan’s listed companies is on track to grow around 8% for the year ending in March, with cheap materials, strong overseas sales and a boom in foreign tourism beating back the effects of China’s economic deceleration. Data was drawn from 1,015 core companies that had released April-September earnings by Friday, or 66% of Japan’s publicly traded corporations. Those surveyed account for 86% of market capitalization in the country. Revenue for fiscal 2015 is seen growing 2%, with 66% of companies expecting profit growth. Companies in the automotive, electrical and chemical sectors are seen making particularly large gains. “Demand in Europe and North America is more than enough to fill in the dents from slowing emerging economies,” said Hiroto Saikawa, Nissan Motor (http://asia.nikkei.com/Company/05HK04-E)‘s chief competitive officer. Exporters on average see the exchange rate at around 118 yen to the dollar for the current half, or 2 yen more than in the year-earlier period. That gap is not as great as in the last half, when the dollar surged by 19 yen from the same period a year earlier. But the cheaper currency should still support profit growth. For every 1 yen softening of the Japanese currency against the dollar, annual profit at Japan’s listed companies grows by 100 billion yen ($814 million) overall, the Daiwa Institute of Research estimates. Thus earnings could get a sizable lift if the yen keeps its current value. Profit at retailers, railways and other companies dependent on demand at home is also seen gaining. Prices are beginning to rise, and growing numbers of foreign visitors will likely continue to buoy sales. Mixed factors Pretax profit rose 11% for the April-September half, supported in part by a recovery in consumer spending after April 2014’s consumption tax hike. Growth was roughly flat for the JulySeptember quarter alone, down from a 24% year-over-year jump for April-June as China’s economic slowdown weighed on earnings. Profitability plummeted for steelmakers in particular as inexpensive Chinese offerings flooded the global market, forcing Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal (http://asia.nikkei.com/Company/0C3HN7-E) and JFE Holdings (http://asia.nikkei.com/Company/05G6HS-E) to downgrade full-year earnings forecasts. “Resource prices don’t look likely to recover anytime soon,” Mitsubishi Corp. (http://asia.nikkei.com/Company/05FMFC-E)Chief Financial Officer Shuma Uchino said. Companies with heavy involvement in emerging economies are thus apprehensive about earnings this half. Pretax profit growth is seen at 5%. Yet full-year gains are still expected to stand out globally, compared with U.S. and other foreign companies. (Nikkei) November 2, 2015 10:56 am JST
PBOC raises yuan mid-point by most in single day since 2005 revaluation SHANGHAI (Reuters) — China’s central bank on Monday raised the midpoint fixing of the yuan currency by the most in a single day since the landmark revaluation of the curreency in 2005. Monday’s midpoint, the official guidance rate, was set at 6.3154 against dollar, or 0.54 percent stronger than Friday’s fix of 6.3495. BEIJING. Bursa China dibuka di zona hijau dan merah pada transaksi pagi ini (28/10). Mengutip data Bloomberg, pada pukul 10.54 waktu Shanghai, Shanghai Composite Index turun 0,1% menjadi 3.431,457. Pergerakan liar bursa China terjadi seiring kecemasan investor mengenai kinerja emiten di kuartal III. Memang, sejumlah perusahaan termasuk China Coal Energy Co dan Ping An Insurance (Group) Co mengumumkan kinerjanya. Sayangnya, mayoritas kinerja emiten tak sesuai dengan estimasi pelaku pasar. Dari 88 perusahaan di daftar Bloomberg yang merilis kinerja kuartal III, sekitar 69% memiliki kinerja di bawah estimasi. Alhasil, sejumlah saham pun mengalami penurunan. China Coal, misalnya, turun 0,5%. Sedangkan Ping An turun 1,3%. “Laporan keuangan emiten tak terlalu baik, khususnya perusahaan berbasis industri tradisional. Saya prediksi, tidak ada sentimen yang mampu mengerek kinerja hingga akhir tahun. Sehingga, investor lebih fokus pada tema investasi terhadap perusahaan kecil,” papar Wang Zheng, chief investment officer Jingxi Investment Management Co. http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/cemas-kinerja-emiten-bursa-china-bergerak-liar (http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/cemas-kinerja-emiten-bursa-china-bergerak-liar) Sumber : KONTAN.CO.ID Beijing detik -Otoritas anti korupsi China sedang menyiapkan perluasan pemeriksaan atau inspeksi internal terhadap para entitas atau lembaga negara tahun ini. Bidikan utama adalah lembaga-lembaga keuangan antara lain bank sentral, regulator bidang sekuritas, dan bank-bank Badan Usaha Milik Negara (BUMN), yang merupakan tahap inspeksi ketiga. Demikian laporan yang dikutip dari Chinadaily, Minggu (25/10/2015) Berdasarkan rencana pemberantasan korupsi sebelumnya, tim dari Communist Party of China’s Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) akan memeriksa semua perusahaan BUMN yang ada di bawah langsung pemerintah pusat. Pihak CCDI akan mengumumkan temuan dari hasil pemeriksaan tahap kedua pada pekan ini. Dalam pernyataan yang diumumkan setelah pertemuan CCDI Jumat lalu, bahwa pemeriksaan atau inspeksi tahap ketiga akan mencakup bank sentral People’s Bank of China (PBOC), Komisi Perbankan China, Komisi Asuransi China, Komisi Sekuritas China, dan China Investment Corp. Selain itu, ada juga akan ada pemeriksaan terhadap konglomerat perusahaan keuangan CITIC Group Corporation, bank-bank BUMN bidang industri dan komersial, juga dua perusahaan asuransi besar China yaitu China Life dan the People’s Insurance Company of China. Bahkan dua perusahaan bursa saham di China yaitu Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange keduanya masuk dalam daftar inspeksi. Sebelumnya pihak Komite Partai Komunis China atau Communist Party of China (CPC) telah mempublikasikan tentang revisi soal regulasi kedisiplinan di lembaga-lembaga negara pada Rabu pekan lalu. Hal ini untuk meningkatkan manajemen 88 juta para anggota CPC dalam mendorong gerakan anti korupsi di China. Saat ini, banyak pejabat tinggi di China ‘disikat’ terkait tindakan korupsi, antara lain Ling Jihua yang merupakan mantan anggota Komite Pusat dari Partai Komunis China, dan mantan bos BUMN China Resources (Holdings) Co Ltd. Genderang perang terhadap korupsi sudah dikomandangkan oleh Presiden China Xi Jinping (http://finance.detik.com/read/2015/10/25/144849/3052730/5/%20http:/finance.detik.com/read/2013/01/01/165601/2130655/4/resolusi-tahun-baru-calon-presiden-china-perang-lawankorupsi) saat mulai menjabat. Seperti diketahui pertengahan November 2012, suksesi kepemimpinan di China telah dimulai. Partai Komunis China (PKC), partai berkuasa di China, telah mengumumkan kepemimpinan baru di tubuh Partai Komunis China untuk 10 tahun ke depan. Wapres Xi Jinping mengambil alih jabatan presiden dari Hu Jintao, yang kini menjabat ketua partai Komunis China. (hen/hen) fortune: Amongst an adverse demographic shift, slumping GDP and a lack of democracy, China’s economic slowdown is looking increasingly fragile. The UK has rolled out the red carpet for Chinese president Xi Jinping on his five-day official visit. He is being given the royal treatment, including a stay at Buckingham Palace, a ride in a state carriage along The Mall and several banquets. The trip will also include plenty of time with the British prime minister, David Cameron, who is keen to discuss the trade and investment that the UK hopes to secure from the visit. Britain’s pivot to China is largely based on its economic strength. And yet there is cause for concern. Having been the locomotive for global growth following the financial crisis in 2008, Chinese growth has now slowed and its economy is looking increasingly fragile. The latest GDP figures came in at just under 7%, significantly down from the astounding annual rate of more than 9% per year between 1990 and 2010. Exports from China have declined, and exports to China must battle against the depreciating yuan. China’s slowdown has depressed global commodity prices, adversely affecting big exporting countries such as Brazil and Russia. Some leading economists have been very optimistic about China. Nobel Laureate Robert Fogel published an article in 2010 (http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/01/04/123000000000000) that predicted that China’s GDP will grow at an average annual rate of more than 8% until 2040, when its GDP per capita would be twice that projected for Europe and similar to that in the United States. Fogel used a textbook method of analysis to predict an unrelenting upward path. But as countries grow, their service sectors tend to increase as a proportion of output and employment. Rates of growth of productivity in services tend to be much lower than in manufacturing or agriculture. Hence, in any economy, growth rates are likely to slow down through changes in economic structure. There are several other reasons why China’s economic growth is set to stall. 1. Demographic shifts China will experience an adverse demographic shift (http://www.economist.com/node/21553056) in the coming decades. Three decades of the one-child policy has reduced the number of adults of working age. The recent and ongoing relaxation of that policy, plus a big decline in infant mortality, increases the number of children. Older people are living longer, due to improved healthcare and reduced poverty. Hence the average number of children and old people, which needs to be supported by each person in work, is set to increase dramatically. 2. Chinese GDP per capita is still low GDP is way below that of the U.S. and other developed countries. World Bank Figures (http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD) for 2014 put China’s GDP per capita at about 24% of that in the U.S. In the 20th century, only five countries managed to grow from 24% or less of U.S. GDP per capita to 60% or more of U.S. GDP per capita. They were Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong. China still has a long way to go. 3. Lack of democracy While there is some evidence that autocratic governments can help economic development at lower stages of development, particularly by promoting basic industry and infrastructure, there is strong evidence (http://www.nber.org/papers/w20004) that democratic institutions are much more suited to higher levels of development. Notably, when Japan, Taiwan and South Korea reached about 45% of U.S. GDP per capita, they were established or emerging democracies. A transition to a more democratic government may be necessary as China develops, but this would be very difficult to achieve — and could be highly disruptive. 4. Lack of openness
A democratic government is but one part of a constellation of vital institutions. As Nobel Laureate Douglass North and his colleagues have argued (http://www.cambridge.org/gb/academic/subjects/economics/economics-general-interest/violence-and-social-orders-conceptual-framework-interpreting-recorded-human-history), dynamic modern economies need checks, balances and countervailing power to minimize arbitrary confiscation by the state. Legal systems have to develop significant autonomy from the political elite. In my book Conceptualizing Capitalism, I show that absolute GDP per capita in a sample of 97 countries is strongly correlated with absence of corruption and openness of government. China is not an outlier in this test. 5. Problems with land and property rights China’s population is divided into two classes. Chinese citizens are registered with either an urban or rural classification, depending on where they are born. Urban registrants have better education and health services. Many rural registrants, meanwhile, have rights to the use of land. But these are often anulled after local party officials are bribed by business speculators and sell the land for profit. Frequent local protests result and the whole system of land use is in dire need of radical reform. Currently it fosters corruption and inhibits the skill development of half of the Chinese population. 6. Lack of homegrown talent Although there are many small firms in China, there are still few mainland-registered large firms. Barry Naughton has noted (https://mitpress.mit.edu/books/chinese-economy) that of the top 10 firms in China exporting high-tech products, nine were foreign. Offshore registration is understandable, because fear of state sequestration persists in a country that did not recognize private property rights in its constitution until 2007 (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/6429317.stm). China’s financial system is very heavily concentrated in state hands, with punitive penalties on private lending. Thus, there are weighty institutional and demographic drags on further rapid growth in China, especially as it enters intermediate levels of economic development that are ill-suited to the continuance of a one-party state. China can succeed, but only through massive and potentially destabilizing reform of its political and economic institutions. We should not be surprised by even lower growth rates in the future. Geoffrey M. Hodgson (https://theconversation.com/profiles/geoffrey-m-hodgson-123510) is a research professor at the University of Hertfordshire. This article originally appeared on The Conversation (https://theconversation.com/six-reasons-why-chinas-economy-is-weaker-than-you-think-49388). JAKARTA. Nilai tukar yuan turun ke level terendah dalam dua pekan pada saat angka deflasi kian mendalam, sedangkan penurunan impor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi pada kuartal ketiga yang diperkirakan turun akan membuat China kian melonggarkan kebijakan. Produk domestik bruto naik 6,8% selama kuartal ketiga sekaligus merupakan pertumbuhan terendah sejak 2009. Kondisi itu juga akan mengganggu target pertumbuhan dari pemerintah sebesar 7% untuk setahun penuh, menurut rata-rata perkiraan ekonom berdasarkan survei Bloomberg Senin lalu. Sedangkan banyak bank China memborong dolar AS di pada saat volumenya lebih rendah dari rata-rata, menurut satu pedagang yang tidak mau disebutkan namanya sebagaimana dikutip Bloomberg, Jumat (16/10/2015). Yuan turun 0,19% ke 6,3580 per dolar AS pada pukul 12:09 siang waktu Shanghai, menurut nilai yang tertera pada Chinaa Foreign Exchange Trade System. Nilai tukar itu sebelumnya turun ke 6,3581 atau yang terendah sejak 29 September. Di bursa luar negeri Hong Kong, nilai tukar tersebut mengalami penurunan per pekan terbesar dalam dua bulan setelah kehilangan nilai 0,39%. Yuan melemah 0,27% pada hari ini hingga bergerak ke posisi 6,3633. “Ini merupakan posisi (yang telah terjadi) menjelang dikeluarkannya data PDB yang diperkirakan akan melenceng dari target 7% per tahun,” ujar Fiona Lim, Senior Currency Strategist Malayan Banking Bhd. Di Singapura. Yuan masih akan tertekan pada triwulan ini akibat permintaan dolar untuk korporasi guna membayar utang. Source : Bloomberg http://finansial.bisnis.com/read/20151016/9/482789/yuan-melemah-china-akan-longgarkan-kebijakan (http://finansial.bisnis.com/read/20151016/9/482789/yuan-melemah-china-akanlonggarkan-kebijakan) Sumber : BISNIS.COM Beijing – Tingkat paritas tengah nilai tukar mata uang China renminbi atau yuan, melemah 34 basis poin menjadi 6,3436 terhadap dolar AS pada Jumat, menurut Sistem Perdagangan Valuta Asing China. Di pasar spot valuta asing China, yuan diperbolehkan untuk naik atau turun sebesar dua persen dari tingkat paritas tengahnya setiap hari perdagangan. Bank sentral China, People’s Bank of China (PBoC), mereformasi sistem pembentukan nilai tukar pada 11 Agustus menjadi lebih mencerminkan perkembangan pasar dalam nilai tukar yuan China terhadap dolar AS. Tingkat paritas tengah yuan terhadap dolar AS didasarkan pada rata-rata tertimbang dari harga yang ditawarkan oleh pelaku pasar sebelum pembukaan pasar setiap hari kerja dan juga mengacu pada tingkat penutupan pada hari sebelumnya, dalam hubungannya dengan kondisi penawaran dan permintaan serta pergerakan mata uang utama. http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2245298/yuan-china-melemah-34-poin-terhadap-dolar-as (http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2245298/yuan-china-melemah-34-poin-terhadapdolar-as) Sumber : INILAH.COM Berdasarkan data resmi Tiongkok yang diumumkan Selasa lalu, penurunan ekspor dan impor Negeri Tirai Bambu berlanjut pada September. Penurunan impor September merupakan yang terbesar sejak Februari. Kondisi itu semakin menegaskan mulai rapuhnya ekonomi Tiongkok sebagai kekuatan ekonomi terbesar kedua di dunia setelah AS. Nilai impor yang didominasi dalam dolar AS anjlok 20,4% melebihi perkiraan semula, dibandingkan bulan yang sama tahun lalu. Sedangkan ekspor turun 3,7%, sehingga menghasilkan surplus perdagangan US$ 60,34 miliar. Perkiraan semula menyebutkan impor Tiongkok akan turun 15% setelah pada Agustus melemah 13,8% dan nilai ekspor sebelumnya diperkirakan turun 6,3% setelah mengalami penurunan sebesar 5,5% pada bulan sebelumnya. “Karena ada sedikit kebangkitan dalam harga-harga komoditas, penurunan impor menunjukkan lemahnya permintaan dalam negeri, khususnya permintaan investasi,” kata Yang Zhao, ekonom Tiongkok di lembaga konsultan Nomura. Juru bicara kantor Bea dan Cukai Tiongkok menyatakan perekonomian Tiongkok menghadapi tekanan penurunan yang besar. Namun, data perdagangan Tiongkok akan membaik pada kuartal IV-2015 karena pelemahan Yuan bakal membantu daya saing ekspor. Tiongkok bakal mengumumkan pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (PDB) pada 19 Oktober. Pertumbuhan PDB Tiongkok diperkirakan turun di bawah 7%. Lemahnya perekonomian Tiongkok telah menjadi pukulan bagi kawasan Asia. Pengiriman barang Taiwan dan Korea Selatan, yang menjadikan Tiongkok sebagai konsumen terbesar, turun berturut-turut 14,6% dan 8,3% pada September. Sejalan dengan itu, saham-saham di Wall Street pada perdagangan Selasa lalu waktu AS (Rabu dinihari WIB) ditutup anjlok, menyusul rilis data ekspor-impor Tiongkok yang turun. Kondisi itu diperparah oleh anjloknya harga minyak dunia. Harga minyak mentah yang berkurang US$ 44 sen pada level US$ 46,66 per barel memberika sentimen negatif terhadap pasar. Indeks Dow Jones ditutup melemah 49,97 poin (0,29%) ke level 17.081,89, indeks S&P 500 turun 13,77 poin (0,68%) ke posisi 2.003,69, dan indeks Nasdaq berkurang 42,03 poin (0,87%) ke level 4.797,61. (az) http://id.beritasatu.com/marketandcorporatenews/ekonomi-tiongkok-mulai-merapuh/129722 (http://id.beritasatu.com/marketandcorporatenews/ekonomi-tiongkok-mulai-merapuh/129722) Sumber : INVESTOR DAILY INILAHCOM, Beijing – Cadangan devisa China turun menjadi US$3,51 triliun pada akhir September 2015, bank sentral negara itu mengumumkan, Rabu (07/10/2015). Cadangan devisa menurun 43,26 miliar dolar AS pada September 2015, menandai bulan keempat berturut-turut menurun, menurut bank sentral China (People’s Bank of China). Tetapi penurunan itu tidak setajam pada Agustus 215. Cadangan devisa turun pada rekor 93,9 miliar dolar AS pada Agustus. Cadangan emas negara itu turun dari US$61,795 miliar pada akhir Agustus 2015 menjadi US$61,189 miliar pada akhir September 2015. [tar] – See more at: http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2243223/cadangan-devisa-china-terusmenurun#sthash.gTYauapF.dpuf (http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2243223/cadangan-devisa-china-terus-menurun#sthash.gTYauapF.dpuf) October 7, 2015 6:46 pm JST
China forex reserves post record quarterly fall as cenbank steps up yuan support BEIJING (Reuters) — China’s foreign exchange reserves posted their biggest quarterly decline on record in July-September, as the central bank stepped up intervention to stabilise the yuan and calm sentiment after an unexpected devaluation of its currency had jolted global markets. China’s reserves, the world’s largest, dropped $43.3 billion to $3.514 trillion last month, central bank data showed on Wednesday, and were down by about $180 billion in the third quarter in their largest ever quarterly fall, according to Reuters data going back to 1980. The devaluation of the yuan on Aug. 11, and the consequent fall in reserves have raised questions about how sustainable China’s efforts to support the yuan are, as capital trickles out of the country due to fears of a deepening economic slowdown and prospects of rising U.S. interest rates. Analysts expect the reserves to fall further. “The decline in China’s foreign reserves, while less than market expected, still shows that China’s central bank continued the market intervention in the past month,” said Singapore-based Zhou Hao, senior economist in Asia at Commerzbank. “As PBoC also intervened into the forward market in the past month, the foreign reserves will likely plunge again when these forward contracts mature,” he said. Policy makers have been determined to calm sentiment after a summer rout in stocks, the yuan devaluation and a series of clumsy attempts by authorities to stabilise equities spread turmoil in global financial markets. Beijing is also pressing on with attempts to ease concerns about a cooling economy, which is growing at its slowest pace in decades. The yuan devaluation had sparked worries of a global currency war and raised doubts about Beijing’s ability to manage an economy transitioning from an investment- and exports-led model to one driven by domestic demand. Indeed, policy insiders have told Reuters that China was so surprised by the reaction to the devaluation that it is likely to keep the yuan on a tight leash in the near-term. the guardian: A 10% fall in the value of a nation’s currency can boost exports by an average 1.5% of GDP, according to a study by the International Monetary Fund that reveals the benefits of a cut in the exchange rate for foreign trade. Heightening fears that the global economy is likely to suffer a new round of currency wars, the report said global trade was still dominated by the export of goods such as cars and fridges that sold better after a cut in the exchange rate made them cheaper. BEARISH YUAN? Although the Peoples’ Bank of China has said it sees no need for further falls in the yuan, markets expect the currency to decline more over the coming year to reflect a faltering economy. In the short term, however, analysts say Beijing is keen to restore investor confidence even as a rapid volley of economic and market support measures has produced mixed results so far. Tim Condon, Singapore-based head of research for Asia at ING Bank, believes Beijing is pushing for the onshore and offshore yuan forward curves to converge again, a situation that prevailed just before the currency was devalued. “I think their strategy to bring that about is to stablilize the spot rate, intervene in the offshore and the onshore spot markets and hope that the economic data kind of portrays a recovering economy and confidence comes back a bit more,” he said. “And I think that strategy’s working.” The report forms a key element of the IMF’s world economic outlook, which is due to be published next week when the global lender of last resort holds its biannual meeting in Lima. Concerns that some of the world’s major nations ducked reforming their economies by opting to devalue their currencies in a desperate dash for trade-driven growth (http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/aug/12/china-yuan-slips-again-after-devaluation)has dogged the debate over the global recovery. Governments stand accused of embarking on currency wars to defend export industries that would be priced out of global markets without the support of an artificially low exchange rate. Shinzo Abe, the Japanese prime minister, made it a central plank of his manifesto to improve exports by driving down the value of the yen (http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/nov/02/world-shares-soar-and-yen-crumbles-as-qe-is-beefed-up-in-japan). He drafted in a new central bank chief, who embarked on a massive programme of electronic money printing similar to the quantitative easing programmes adopted by the Bank of England and US Federal Reserve. The IMF said the yen has fallen by 30% since mid-2012 against a basket of currencies. The European Central Bank embarked on a similar policy (http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jan/22/ecb-unveils-1-trillion-qe-plan-stimulate-eurozoen-economy) in January, helping the euro to fall by more than 10% since early 2014. Meanwhile, the US dollar is up more than 10% since mid-2014. The Washington-based organisation said these currency movements since the financial crisis had been “unusually large”, especially the shifts seen in the last couple of years. “Brazil, China (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/aug/16/china-currency-crisis-yuan-devaluation-why-it-matters), and India have also seen unusually large changes in their currency values,” it said. “Not surprisingly, these movements have kindled a debate on their likely effects on trade. Some predict strong effects on exports and imports, based on conventional economic models. Others argue that the increasing fragmentation of production across different countries – the so-called rise of global value chains – means that exchange rates matter far less than they used to for trade, and may have disconnected altogether.” The IMF’s study found that most trade was still “traditional” and involved the export and import of finished goods and services that were sensitive to price movements. It said that while global firms have created supply chains that straddle many countries and are insulated from movements in currencies by long-term contracts and hedging instruments, they are not a dominant feature. IMF officials said they were relieved that a reduction in a country’s exchange rate fed through to trade levels because it meant currency rises and falls continued to act as a rebalancing mechanism in world trade and stimulus to sustainable global growth. But the wide-ranging report will be seen by some policymakers as providing the evidence governments need to embark on currency manipulation as a means to increase exports. The finding that a 10% fall in the value of a nation’s currency can boost exports by an average 1.5% of GDP will be enough to spur some governments to adopt policies that devalue their currencies. Fears have already intensified in recent weeks that Japan will re-double its eforts to drive down the cost of the yen (http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/sep/24/abenomics-20-pmupdates-plan-to-refresh-japanese-economy)after a 3.5% rise against the dollar and 6.5% jump against sterling in the last month. Japan’s currency is considered a safe haven in the region, encouraging investors to buy yen assets and drive up its value. Worried at recent developments, the Bank of Japan (http://www.theguardian.com/world/japan) governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, said at the weekend that he expects a weaker yen, hinting that the central bank will boost its QE programme. There is also a warning for the UK, which has suffered a fall in manufacturing exports following a 20% rise in the value of sterling. The pound has tumbled in recent weeks following a recovery in the euro, but analysts expect the fall to be temporary and for the high value of sterling to continue burdening exporters. tttttBBBBBBBBBtttttt Steve Inskeep talks to David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution, about his trip to China and his observations about the country’s economy. STEVE INSKEEP, HOST: Now let’s get a view of China’s economy from a man who has a global view of it. Our regular guest, David Wessel, has covered the U.S. economy, the markets and the Federal Reserve for many years. In recent days, he traveled to China, the country whose apparent economic troubles have shaken U.S. markets. So what struck his eye? We’re going to ask. He’s on the line. David, good morning. DAVID WESSEL: Good morning, Steve. INSKEEP: The open question here is, is China in a little trouble that it can handle over time or something worst? What do you think? WESSEL: Exactly. Well, look, it’s abundantly clear that China’s manufacturing sector is a mess, and we have lots of data to prove that – electricity output and stuff like that. They’re very good at counting physical things. The weakness for manufacturing shows up in a reduced appetite for commodities that’s hurting exporters from Canada to South Africa. But China’s trying to shift its economy from manufacturing and big infrastructure to services and consumer spending. And what we don’t know is how much of the slack those growing sectors are picking up. But what was striking to me in Beijing was that the top economic leadership in China doesn’t know either. They just don’t have very good numbers. There’s nothing like the U.S. monthly jobs report in China. So the central bank sounds very optimistic – things aren’t so bad, it’ll get better soon. Other parts of the government sound much more worried. One official said to us, China’s economy is in its wintertime – it may be long, it may be short. And I really had to restrain myself from asking him if he was a “Game Of Thrones” fan. INSKEEP: (Laughter) It sounds like you were not really all that impressed by what the Chinese officials had to say. WESSEL: Well, you know, it’s hard to exaggerate how little outsiders know about how the Chinese government makes decisions. What surprised me was the sense that there’s so many tensions inside the government about how to manage the economy, how quickly to open up to market forces. And we saw those tensions erupt when the stock market there crashed and some parts of the government wanted to intervene, so some days they did. Some days they didn’t intervene. It made for a lot of confusion. So they have this State Council in China – 12 officials. They make almost every major decision – interest rates, exchange rates, how quickly should we allow competition in the service sector and so forth. And unlike the Federal Reserve here or the U.S. Congress, they don’t really explain the rationale for their decisions. That didn’t used to be a big deal, but China’s now such a huge economy that when it makes a move, the implications ricochet around the world. So their inexperience in explaining themselves is really proving to be a big problem, and they were surprised to learn that. INSKEEP: Is that just a problem of explaining of communications, or is it that they don’t really have an explanation? WESSEL: I think they’re struggling to come up with a strategy to cope with an economy that’s changing, growing perhaps more slowly than they anticipated. They’re worried about the flow of money out of China, which is a new development. They’re surprised at how much global financial markets in countries like Kazakhstan and Malaysia responded when they devalued their currency. So I think that for a long time, people in financial markets – and even in the U.S. government – would say, oh, China’s got big problems, but look at their track record. These guys are competent. They can handle this. They have control. And now I hear a lot more people outside and inside China saying maybe these guys don’t know what they’re doing. And frankly, I kind of felt that way when I came home. INSKEEP: Did you feel that you were in an anxious place, that people were a little tense where you were? WESSEL: I found that the officials were tense and a bit concerned about the impression they were making on the rest of the world. I didn’t talk to a lot of ordinary Chinese, but I talked to a couple of young women who were on the sidelines of a conference we were at. And I was struck by how little trust they have in anything the government said. They were incredulous that I believed any of the Chinese economic numbers. And they told me both their mothers had been in the stock market and hadn’t gotten out because they were sure the government would take care of it. INSKEEP: David, thanks very much. WESSEL: You’re welcome. INSKEEP: David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center at the Brookings Institution and a contributing correspondent to The Wall Street Journal. Copyright © 2015 NPR. All rights reserved. Visit our website terms of use (http://www.npr.org/about-npr/179876898/terms-of-use) and permissions (http://www.npr.org/aboutnpr/179881519/rights-and-permissions-information) pages at http://www.npr.org (http://www.npr.org) for further information. NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by a contractor for NPR, and accuracy and availability may vary. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Please be aware that the authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio. JAKARTA-Tingkat paritas tengah nilai tukar mata uang Tiongkok renminbi atau yuan, menguat 47 basis poin menjadi 6,36613 terhadap dolar AS pada Rabu, menurut Sistem Perdagangan Valuta Asing Tiongkok. Di pasar spot valuta asing Tiongkok, yuan diperbolehkan untuk naik atau turun sebesar dua persen dari tingkat paritas tengahnya setiap hari perdagangan. Bank sentral Tiongkok, People’s Bank of China (PBoC), mereformasi sistem pembentukan nilai tukar pada 11 Agustus menjadi lebih mencerminkan perkembangan pasar dalam nilai tukar yuan Tiongkok terhadap dolar AS. Tingkat paritas tengah yuan terhadap dolar AS didasarkan pada rata-rata tertimbang dari harga yang ditawarkan oleh pelaku pasar sebelum pembukaan pasar setiap hari kerja dan juga mengacu pada tingkat penutupan pada hari sebelumnya, dalam hubungannya dengan kondisi penawaran dan permintaan serta pergerakan mata uang utama.(ant/hrb) http://id.beritasatu.com/international/yuan-tiongkok-menguat-jadi-63613-terhadap-dolar/128590 (http://id.beritasatu.com/international/yuan-tiongkok-menguat-jadi-63613-terhadapdolar/128590) Sumber : INVESTOR DAILY TOKYO — China’s real gross domestic product growth likely came to only 5% or so in the April-June quarter, well below the 7% shown in official data, according to the Japan Center for Economic Research. The think tank looked at railway freight, electric power generation and growth in bank lending. These indicators, reportedly used by Premier Li Keqiang for economic analysis while he was Communist Party chief in Liaoning Province, are considered by many to provide a more accurate picture of China’s real economy than do official statistics. An index composed of these three indicators put China’s real GDP growth at 4.8% to 6.5%, below the 7% reported by China’s statistics bureau. Railway freight declined about 10% on the year and growth in power generation slackened, dragging down the calculated economic growth rate. The think tank’s estimate had not differed significantly from the government’s GDP growth data until around summer 2013, when it came in below the official figure. The gap has been widening since. President Xi Jinping has repeatedly expressed confidence that China can achieve the government’s growth target of around 7%. Financial markets increasingly believe the economy has slowed more than expected and suspect that Beijing may be fudging the numbers. (Nikkei) TOKYO — China is still reeling from its own “Black Monday.” The Nikkei Asian Review spoke with Olivier d’Assier, Asia-Pacific managing director at Axioma, a U.S. provider of risk management tools, about the economic and political consequences of the market chaos in the world’s second-largest economy.D’Assier is former president of Barra Japan and former senior vice president of Nikko Securities.Q: President Xi Jinping has talked about a “shared destiny” between China and its neighbors, in which they can rise together economically. But this week, China dragged down all its neighbors with it. What is happening?A: When the country is doing well, it talks about external ambitions. When the economy goes bad, everybody looks inward. Just like a company might close down a factory in Malaysia, a central bank would take measures to protect the domestic market. Central banks act for their country, not for the global good.Just like the U.S. Federal Reserve did in the “taper tantrum,” and just like the Swiss National Bank scrapped its cap on the franc earlier this year, the People’s Bank of China acted like the national bank that it is. It is not a global bank. They cannot be blamed for the devaluation of their currency. Q: But markets around the world have been affected.A: China’s impact on the global economy is through the commodity market, not the consumer market. Therefore, China, the emerging markets and commodity-producing markets that sell to them — such as Australia — have been hurt. They do not have very good fundamentals. But for the rest of the world, this [market slide] seems more technically driven and sentiment-driven, rather than [related to] fundamentals. The fear that you “must sell” has driven valuations down very rapidly and in an undisciplined, indiscriminate fashion.For instance, there should not be a correlation between airline stocks and oil company stocks. When oil-related stocks go up, airline stocks should come down. Similarly, stocks for beer companies and tobacco companies should not be correlated with pharmaceutical stocks. This is mispricing. In a six-to-12-month horizon, this mispricing will be fixed. There will be a lot of bargain hunting over the next few days.The problem for fund managers is that the risk has gone up. When the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, goes over a certain level, they are mandated by their clients to sell. Although they can explain to their clients that there is a lot of mispricing and there is an opportunity to gain, many clients, such as pension funds, would say that the risk is too high and that they prefer that you sell. People get scared.On Monday, the selling was indiscriminate across the board. On Tuesday, however, some airline stocks went up in Tokyo due to the lower oil prices. So there is already some economic sense kicking back in.Q: What will happen in China? A: You have to remember that the Chinese invest only 10% of their savings into the stock market, so this is not going to put them on the streets. People there tend to put much more of their savings into real estate, so that is a bigger issue. And real estate prices are stabilizing and in fact are beginning to rise again.Today, the power of the Chinese government is concentrated in the hands of seven people, the standing committee of the Politburo. The one thing they worry about is losing legitimacy at home. Both the stock market turmoil and the explosions around the country have hurt their legitimacy to rule. Right now, they are prepared to do what it takes to gain back the trust of the people. So the world should treat China like a bear. Don’t poke the wounded bear. Don’t visit Yasukuni Shrine (honoring Japan’s war dead) this week because China would jump at it. They would love to use Japan to gain back their legitimacy. Nobody can ignore China because their economy is intertwined with the region. But you have to be smart in the way you deal with them. Offer assistance. Show that you are a friend in a time of need. Interviewed by Nikkei staff writer Ken Moriyasu A: You have to remember that the Chinese invest only 10% of their savings into the stock market, so this is not going to put them on the streets. People there tend to put much more of their savings into real estate, so that is a bigger issue. And real estate prices are stabilizing and in fact are beginning to rise again. Today, the power of the Chinese government is concentrated in the hands of seven people, the standing committee of the Politburo. The one thing they worry about is losing legitimacy at home. Both the stock market turmoil and the explosions around the country have hurt their legitimacy to rule. Right now, they are prepared to do what it takes to gain back the trust of the people. So the world should treat China like a bear. Don’t poke the wounded bear. Don’t visit Yasukuni Shrine (honoring Japan’s war dead) this week because China would jump at it. They would love to use Japan to gain back their legitimacy. Nobody can ignore China because their economy is intertwined with the region. But you have to be smart in the way you deal with them. Offer assistance. Show that you are a friend in a time of need. Interviewed by Nikkei staff writer Ken Moriyasu nikkei: The most shocking thing about the world’s reaction to China’s decision to devalue the yuan was that anyone should have been surprised. For those who have watched China’s deteriorating economic growth since late 2014 and the ineffectiveness of monetary easing by the People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, currency devaluation appeared to be not only logical, but also inevitable. Since recording its last double-digit rate of 10.4% in 2010, China’s economic growth has slowed by 3 percentage points over four years to 7.4% in 2014. In response, Chinese policymakers injected massive amounts of credit into the economy. Although estimates vary, total credit growth from 2011 to 2014 probably equaled 100% of Chinese gross domestic product, raising the debt-to-GDP ratio to around 280% at the end of 2014, according to McKinsey, the business consultancy. Undeterred by the prospect of creating a financial crisis, the Chinese government continued to double down on monetary easing. Since last November, the PBOC has cut interest rates four times by a total of 115 basis points and lowered the reserve ratio (the amount of cash banks are required to hold) three times by 150 basis points. This injection of new credit did not do much to revive China’s investment growth, but it did help inflate a gigantic stock market bubble that temporarily created a mirage of prosperity. Unfortunately, the bubble started to collapse in mid-June, forcing Beijing to launch an aggressive and hugely expensive rescue operation to prevent share prices crashing. Meanwhile, the economy deteriorated further. In July, Chinese exports fell 8.3% while its purchasing managers index reading was 47.8%, the lowest in two years. Beijing, Sept 28, 2015 (AFP) Profits at China’s major industrial companies saw their biggest declines in four years last month, official data showed Monday, the latest sign of weakness in the world’s second-largest economy. The figures came after a string of poor data showing the slowing pace of the traditional drivers of China’s growth sent shockwaves through markets worldwide. Profits at a range of large firms declined by almost nine percent last month compared to the same period in 2014, the country’s statistics office said. The profit falls at a range of companies with annual revenues of more than 20 million yuan were the biggest in about four years, Bloomberg News said. “Market demand for industrial products was rather weak,” said He Ping, an analyst at China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Months of declines in China’s stock markets have caused “the boost of return on investment to profit to wane sharply”, He added. China’s economy expanded 7.3 percent last year, the weakest pace in almost 25 years. The government has vowed to rebalance the economy away from reliance on exports and government investment towards domestic consumption as a driver of growth. The industrial profit figures exclude firms in China’s service sector, which analysts say will increase in importance under such a rebalancing. But Xu Yating, an economist with IHS Global Insight, warned that the dent in industrial profit could broaden to affect consumer goods makers. “The headline profit growth is unlikely to improve in the short term and the downstream sectors will be affected in the long-run if China’s economic growth continues to slide and drag on domestic consumption,” Xu said in a report. wf/tjh/ds
IHS Global Insight
Currency wars and the threat of deflation
Downward pressure on prices signals dangers for the world economy aljazeera August 19, 2015 2:00AM ET by David Cay Johnston (http://america.aljazeera.com/profiles/j/david-cay-johnston.html) @DavidCayJ (http://www.twitter.com/DavidCayJ) The price at which you can trade American dollars for foreign currencies may seem abstract, but events unfolding right now make it important to your future income, whether you have a job and the direction of the world economy in the next few years.
Around the globe, we are seeing strong downward pressure on prices, especially for commodities, prompting some governments to make their currency cheaper relative to the dollar. That suggests we may be entering a period of deflation, last experienced in a serious way in the U.S. in the Great Depression of the 1930s and the late 1800s. A deflationary spiral would represent a serious threat to the global economy.
Currency war Let’s look at the currency fight. To bolster its exports, and thus jobs, Beijing last week cut the price of the yuan, relative to the dollar, by about 4 percent. More than a fifth of American trade is with China, so the relative price of the yuan and dollar matters a lot to both countries. A cheaper yuan helps China export more manufactured goods, because Americans (and others) can buy them at lower cost. This also means it will cost the Chinese more to buy American products, so fewer will be sold. In June China sold $1 billion per day more to the U.S. than it purchased. If the yuan falls 10 percent it, will make Chinese goods so much cheaper that our trade deficit with China will likely increase by about $66 billion annually. That translates into a likely loss of 190,000 to 640,000 American jobs (http://www.epi.org/blog/congress-must-act-on-chinese-currency-devaluation/), according to the Economic Policy Institute. Since 2000 the U.S. has lost more than 5 million manufacturing jobs, the majority of them to China. The U.S. could stanch this by buying yuan for, say, 5 to the dollar. At that price currency traders would be hunting for every Chinese coin stuck between couch cushions. Chinese leaders would not take well to this and would, in turn, come up with their own responses to mitigate the effect of such a currency war because their interest is fixed on China’s long march to becoming the next superpower. But it’s not just China that is devaluing its currency so it can lower the price of exports. The South Korean won, Thai baht and Malaysian ringgit have all come down in recent days and the Vietnamese dong is sure to follow as these countries try to make their exports cheaper and protect their manufacturing jobs. The Australian dollar, which floats freely because it is not managed by the government, also fell in the markets. All this makes the dollar relatively stronger, which reduces American exports and manufacturing jobs. For the U.S. the stronger dollar will also put even more downward pressure on wages as manufacturers try to find ways to make products competitive and overcome the stronger dollar. That would in turn worsen the already weak spending capacity of most Americans, adding to deflationary pressures as sellers trim the prices of goods and services.
research.stlouisfed.org Another way to make the dollar cheaper is by lowering interest rates — except that they are already so low. The effective Federal Funds rate is a tiny fraction of one percent, 0.13 percent to be precise. The discount rate, what the Fed charges banks for overnight loans to smooth cash flows, has been at 0.75 percent since 2010, down from 5.75 percent in early 2001. The Federal Reserve keeps hinting it will abandon its zero-interest-rate policy as early as this fall. But lifting interest rates will make the dollar even more attractive as a safe storehouse of cash. So higher interest mean an even stronger dollar as more money flows into American debt securities, which means fewer American exports and more lost jobs and that, in turn, means pressure on sellers to lower prices to avoid being stuck with unsold goods and services. It’s a vicious cycle we want to avoid. The falls in prices around the world raise the specter of deflation.
Loss of purchasing power Meanwhile commodity prices around the world have fallen (http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2015/7/blame-government-policies-for-the-economic-slowdown.html), an indication of an economic slowdown or even the start of a contraction, as Japan just reported (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-16/japan-s-economy-contracts-as-consumption-investmentdecline). This especially hits the Brazilian economy, the world’s seventh largest, since it relies heavily on exporting iron ore, petroleum and other commodities to China, for which it will be relatively less. Oil may fall to under $20 (http://online.barrons.com/articles/price-of-oil-it-could-fall-to-20-1420865102) a barrel from its July 2008 high of $146, according to Barron’s, the weekly magazine for individuals who trade stocks. Oil traded at about $48 last week. At $20, it would be a short-term disaster for oil-field towns, where the falling price has already resulted in fewer drilling rigs, shutting some operating wells and fewer support jobs. The falls in prices around the world raise the specter of deflation. The underlying global problem is that while profits have soared and corporations hold vast hoards of cash (http://www.thenation.com/article/how-to-repeal-the-tax-loophole-that-allows-companies-to-hide-their-profits-in-offshore-accounts/), few workers worldwide are getting real pay raises and many have seen their incomes fall in real terms. Their lack of purchasing power has lowered aggregate demand. My analysis (http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2015/6/the-top-001-percent-are-different-from-you-and-me.html) of new IRS data (http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/soi-a-ints-id1506.pdf) shows that, adjusted for inflation, the bottom half of Americans reported average total incomes (excluding welfare benefits like food stamps) of just $14,775 in 2012, down 18 percent from 2003. Most people’s income derives from work. When pay is stagnant the capacity of people to buy more goods and services also must be flat unless they go into debt. One way we have seen this in the U.S. is that the average age of cars on the road (http://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/publications/national_transportation_statistics/html/table_01_26.html_mfd) has increased from 8.4 years in 1995 to 11.4 years in 2014. We are slowly becoming less well off. China faces similar problems. Angst among its newly created urban classes, who were sold on a bigger economic future through capitalism but feel the sting of rising prices and small wage increases, threatens party control. Cheap foreign currencies convey some benefits. The American dollar is worth about $1.31 in Canada, making vacations and shopping there very attractive to those of us who live near the border. Airfares are even better deal. I was about to pay $1,452 in airfare to speak at the 2015 Global Investigative Journalism Conference in Norway when I looked up airfares out of Toronto. I paid just $695 and get to have dinner with a daughter who lives in Canada. Had I waited a month my airfare would have been just $515.
The danger of deflation That price drop points to the problem with a general deflation, in which the overall prices of goods and services fall. People tend to delay purchases if they believe they can get a bargain in the future. Think about the $180, or 26 percent, I could have saved on airfare by waiting a few weeks and expand it to everything all of us buy. The problem is that without constant spending, the economy collapses. Money circulates just like the blood in your body — when the heart stops so does everything else. Economists generally argue that a broad deflation is a prospect far worse than inflation and much harder to solve. However one research paper argued (http://www.nber.org/digest/apr04/w10329.html) that the deflation of the late 1800s — an era, like ours, of rapid technological change — did more long term good than damage, though for many the short-term economic pain was intense. Americans since World War II have become accustomed to thinking that delaying purchases means paying more, because of inflation. But with deflation the opposite takes place: Because things will cost less tomorrow, next week or next month, people want to hold cash and postpone purchases. (For people on fixed incomes deflation would be great; they could buy more and more goods and services because of falling prices.) We need adapt our thinking to the emerging economic conditions of the 21st Century, in which flat prices or even a deflation threatens our prosperity. Without the incentive of rising prices brought by inflation, we risk falling into a vicious cycle of economic decline by deferring the purchases that drive the economy and the investments in education, infrastructure and basic research and undergird it. That would be a tragic mistake. David Cay Johnston, an investigative reporter who won a Pulitzer Prize while at The New York Times, teaches business, tax and property law of the ancient world at the Syracuse University College of Law. He is the best-selling author of “Perfectly Legal (http://www.amazon.com/Perfectly-Legal-Campaign-Rich---Everybody/dp/1591840694/ref=sr_1_3? ie=UTF8&qid=1395025415&sr=8-3&keywords=DAvid+Cay+Johnston),” “Free Lunch (http://www.amazon.com/Free-Lunch-Wealthiest-ThemselvesGovernment/dp/1591842484/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&qid=1395025415&sr=8-4&keywords=DAvid+Cay+Johnston)” and “The Fine Print (http://www.amazon.com/The-Fine-PrintCompanies-English/dp/1591846536/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1395025415&sr=8-1&keywords=DAvid+Cay+Johnston)” and the editor of the new anthology “Divided: The Perils of Our Growing Inequality (http://www.amazon.com/Divided-The-Perils-Growing-Inequality/dp/1595589236/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1395025415&sr=82&keywords=DAvid+Cay+Johnston).” The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera America’s editorial policy.
BUENOS AIRES, Sept. 24 (Xinhua) — If the Chinese renminbi (RMB) became an international reserve currency, it would facilitate trade and investment in Latin America, said Argentine expert Matias Carugati. Carugati, head economist of a consultancy Management & Fit, told Xinhua in an interview that it would have “concrete, long-term benefits” if the RMB was a reserve currency because it could ease trade and investment with China. In 2014, direct investment from China to Latin America totaled 98.9 billion U.S. dollars, according to the Chinese Ministry of Commerce. Last Friday the People’s Bank of China authorized the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China to act as a clearing bank for RMB transactions in Argentina. Carugati said this move made the RMB closer to a reserve currency. “As more such agreements are signed with countries and regions around the world, the RMB will become more and more influential and the International Monetary Fund will accept it some day in its basket of reserve currencies,” he added. BEIJING, Sept. 23 (Xinhua) — While the latest manufacturing activity data points to lingering weakness, economists have been quick to reassure the market that the Chinese economy remains on course to achieve its annual growth target. On Wednesday, the Caixin flash China general manufacturing PMI, a preliminary gauge of factory activity, plunged to a 78-month low of 47.0 in September from 47.3 in August. A figure below 50 indicates contraction. With exports, investment and manufacturing all gearing down, the heady days of breakneck, hectic expansion are a thing of the past. The economy posted 7-percent growth in the first half. While this is the slowest pace in nearly a quarter of a century, it is too early to say the economy is veering off course. It is not all doom and gloom, however, as 7-percent growth is within the targeted range. Further, signs of mild recovery and the effect of reform measures will support the economy in the second half (H2) of 2015, many economists believe. Certain economic indicators are showing signs of picking up. China’s value-added industrial output expanded 6.1 percent year on year in August, up slightly from 6 percent in July. The same month, total-power use rebounded from a drop of 1.3 percent in July to an increase of 1.9 percent year on year. This gradual improvement in power use shows that the economy is still holding steady, said Shan Baoguo from the State Grid Energy Research Institute. Although traditional manufacturing slowed down markedly, new industries such as robotics, electric vehicles and smart devices have seen rapid growth this year, said Niu Li, an economist with the State Information Center. “The fundamentals for economic stability have not changed,” said Ning Jizhe, deputy head of the National Development and Reform Commission, the country’s top economic planner. China has maintained a medium-high growth rate and its restructuring and upgrading drive continues to make progress, he commented. To shore up growth, the government has reduced interest rates four times this year, cranked up fiscal spending, cut fees and taxes, and rolled out major projects to boost investment and consumption. Red tape has been slashed for small businesses and innovators, and private and foreign investors are benefiting from expanded market access. The effect of these measures will become more apparent in H2, helping the economy and, with the base effect taken into account, will ensure the annual GDP (http://search.news.cn/language/search.jspa?id=en&t=1&t1=0&ss=&ct=&n1=GDP&x=33&y=11) growth target, of around 7 percent, is achieved, Niu forecast. Michael Menhart, chief economist of German reinsurance company Munich Re Group, has faith in China realizing its annual growth target, assuring observers that there is no reason to panic. The country’s top brass have projected confidence, too. “The Chinese economy is under a downward pressure…China has the capacity and is in the position to maintain a medium-high growth in the years to come,” President Xi Jinping (http://search.news.cn/language/search.jspa?id=en&t=1&t1=0&ss=&ct=&n1=Xi+Jinping) said in a written interview with the Wall Street Journal published on Tuesday. Xi said, to understand China’s economy, one needs to take a longer view. “If you liken it to a large ship on the sea, the question you ask is whether it is sailing in the right direction, does it have sufficient engine power and energy to stay long.” “Any ship, however large, may occasionally get unstable sailing on the high sea,” Xi said. There remains huge growth potentials in China thanks to substantial domestic demand, and ongoing urbanization and industrialization, according to Wang Baoan, head of the National Bureau of Statistics. Reforms in areas like government administration, market access and state-owned enterprises will help tap the economic potential, said Cai Fang, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. “Whatever happens, China will stay strongly committed to deepening its reform on all fronts while opening still wider to the outside world,” Xi said. With a plan to overhaul state-owned enterprises released earlier this month, and confirmation that more businesses will be allowed to accept foreign investment from 2018, China looks on course to navigate the choppy waters of structural transformation and economic growth. INILAHCOM, Beijing – Tingkat paritas tengah nilai tukar mata uang China renminbi atau yuan, menguat 10 basis poin menjadi 6,3709 terhadap dolar AS, Senin (14/09/2015). Demikian menurut Sistem Perdagangan Valuta Asing China. Di pasar spot valuta asing China, yuan diperbolehkan untuk naik atau turun sebesar dua persen dari tingkat paritas tengahnya setiap hari perdagangan. Bank sentral China, People’s Bank of China (PBoC), mereformasi sistem pembentukan nilai tukar pada 11 Agustus menjadi lebih mencerminkan perkembangan pasar dalam nilai tukar yuan China terhadap dolar AS. Tingkat paritas tengah yuan terhadap dolar AS didasarkan pada rata-rata tertimbang dari harga yang ditawarkan oleh pelaku pasar sebelum pembukaan pasar setiap hari kerja dan juga mengacu pada tingkat penutupan pada hari sebelumnya, dalam hubungannya dengan kondisi penawaran dan permintaan serta pergerakan mata uang utama. [tar] – See more at: http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2237308/yuan-china-menguat-10-poin-terhadap-dolar-as#sthash.CkBSK2Vi.dpuf (http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2237308/yuan-china-menguat-10-poin-terhadap-dolar-as#sthash.CkBSK2Vi.dpuf) Nathan Lewis (http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanlewis/) , CONTRIBUTOR forbes: Out of the “currency wars (http://www.amazon.com/Currency-Wars-Making-Global-Crisis/dp/1591845564/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1404917491&sr=81&keywords=currency+wars)” of the 1930s, and then World War II, came a shared dream among the non-communist states: to establish a stable economic environment for business and trade. Representatives from forty-four countries met at the MountWashington (http://www.forbes.com/washington/) Hotel in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, and recreated the world gold standard system. The U.S. dollar was officially linked to gold at $35/ounce, its gold parity since 1934. Other currencies were linked to the dollar at fixed exchange rates, which effectively meant that they were linked to gold as well. The Japanese yen was 360/dollar, year after year. (360*35=12,600/oz.) The German mark was 4.20/dollar (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system#Deutsche_Mark). In June of this year, former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker spoke at the annual meeting of the Bretton Woods Committee, and pined for the world in which he grew up and began his career (http://www.brettonwoods.org/publication/remarks-by-paul-a-volcker-at-the-bretton-woods-committee-annual-meeting-2014). Volcker was under-secretary of the Treasury for international monetary affairs from 1969 to 1974. The U.S. ended the Bretton Woods’ system’s official link to gold in 1971 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRzr1QU6K1o), and the system’s final dissolution was in the spring of 1973. That would give you quite a perspective on the evolution of things since then. His conclusions? “By now I think we can agree that the absence of an official, rules-based cooperatively managed, monetary system has not been a great success. In fact, international financial crises seem at least as frequent and more destructive in impeding economic stability and growth. … That is all a long introduction to a plea – a plea for attention to the need for developing an international monetary and financial system worthy of our time.” The rules of the “rules-based” Bretton Woods system were clear: the dollar was linked to gold at $35/oz., and other currencies were linked to the dollar, thus effectively linking them to gold as well. If it’s that simple, and the results were good – the Bretton Woods era of the 1950s and 1960s was probably the most prosperous of the 20th century for the United States – then why not just recreate it? Alas, the Bretton Woods system also had many problems – problems that were inherent in its creation. The proper way to operate a gold standard system, and the proper way to institute fixed exchange rates with other currencies, is through what amounts to a currency board-type system. The daily operation of the system is automatic. There is no central bank policy board, interest rate policy, or anything of that sort. We have many currency boards in use today, and they work fine, as long as the proper operating principles (http://newworldeconomics.com/GTMPpage.html) are adhered to. These currency board systems allow unimpeded foreign trade and capital flows, with no problems whatsoever. But, that is not what the organizers at the Bretton Woods conference wanted. The idea of “central planning” of an economy was popular. The conference was held during wartime, when in fact even the U.S. economy was organized along lines not so much different than the Soviet system. Rather, governments wanted to also be able to “manage” their economies through what amounts to funny-money manipulation – interest rate targets, monetary or credit growth targets, unemployment targets, trade balances, or other such things. These two impossibly contradictory goals could only be sustained with heavy capital controls, and even then there were periodic currency devaluations. The British pound, once the world’s beacon of currency stability, was devalued in 1949 and 1967. The French franc was devalued twice in 1948 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system#Pegged_rates), twice again in 1949, and again in 1957, 1958, 1960, and 1969.
The U.S. was playing the same game – trying to reconcile a “domestic monetary policy” of funny-money manipulation with an “external monetary policy” of fixed exchange rates — and, just as had been the case repeatedly in Britain and France, got to the point where it had to make a decision. Either the U.S. had to give up its funny-money ambitions, and return to the stablecurrency discipline implied by the gold standard parity of $35/oz., or it would have to devalue. Nixon devalued. At first, he wanted a devaluation like Britain or France, or the U.S. in 1933 – to re-establish the dollar’s gold parity at a lower value. In the Smithsonian Agreement of December 1971 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smithsonian_Agreement), only four months after the devaluation, the dollar’s new gold parity was supposed to be $38/oz. But, the Nixonites didn’t want to abide by the necessary gold-standard operating principles, at $35/oz., $38/oz., or at any gold parity. Fed chief Arthur Burns’ printing press was Nixon’s 1972 re-election strategy (it worked). In effect, the dollar had become a floating currency. What a mess! Thus, if we are going to meet again at a mountain resort hotel and build a new world monetary system (I suggest Davos), it would be good to review the failures – and successes – of the past. First, the successes: the Bretton Woods gold standard system did indeed provide the monetary foundation for peace and prosperity throughout the world, for as long as it lasted. This was a bountiful time, for all levels of society. Stable money works. Second, the failures: the notion of combining a “domestic monetary policy” of funny-money manipulation with an “external monetary policy” of a gold parity or another fixed-value system was a total failure, even with the imposition of quite a lot of capital controls. This impossible contradiction led to the breakdown of the system in a brief 27 years, in the midst of peace and prosperity. So, don’t do that. Third, the construction of the Bretton Woods system, with its extreme reliance on U.S. dollar “reserve currency” assets instead of a direct link with gold bullion for currencies worldwide, was needlessly fragile. Although Britain and France devalued without any major repercussions beyond their borders, when the U.S. floated the “reserve currency,” the entire system blew up. It would have been better for each country to have an independent link with gold bullion, and not be dependent on any “reserve currency.” This is much more robust, and has no particular difficulties. Although I think most mainstream academics are still rather confused by the Bretton Woods era (as were economists who lived during that time), these basic problems are nevertheless wellrecognized. Lewis Lehrman (http://www.thegoldstandardnow.org/) was a member of the Congressional Gold Standard Commission of 1981, and co-author of the 1982 book A Case for Gold with cocommissioner Ron Paul. Although perhaps best known for his stint as the president of Rite Aid (http://www.forbes.com/companies/rite-aid) RAD +0.00% (http://www.forbes.com/companies/rite-aid) until 1977, he was also a managing director of Morgan Stanley (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lewis_Lehrman)during the 1980s. More recently, he summed up his proposals in the 2012 book The True Gold Standard (http://www.amazon.com/The-True-Gold-Standard-Currencies/dp/0984017828/ref=sr_1_1? ie=UTF8&qid=1404928604&sr=8-1&keywords=lewis+lehrman+true+gold+standard). The title continues: “A Monetary Reform Plan Without Official Reserve Currencies.” The True Gold Standard actually contains a proposal for a U.S.-led international conference rather like the one at Bretton Woods. However, Lehrman’s proposal eliminates the excessive reliance on “reserve currency” assets such as U.S. dollar-based debt, and proposes a direct link to gold for participants, as was more often the case pre-1913 (although there were reservecurrency-based systems then too). Lehrman’s proposal also includes a provision for “redeemability” of dollar base money into gold coin and bullion, and vice versa, on demand for all dollar users. This is a basic element of contemporary currency board systems, and also of historic gold standard systems. The Bretton Woods system had it in the form of bullion redeemability for foreign central banks at the London gold market. However, gold bullion and coins had been made illegal for U.S. citizens to hold beginning in 1933, which continued to 1974. This was another major flaw in the Bretton Woods system, not only because it eliminated the basic operating mechanism of historic gold standard systems (redeemability), but because even the idea that the system was, fundamentally, a gold-based arrangement became little understood. This was a major political cause (http://www.newworldeconomics.com/archives/2013/012713.html) of its eventual breakdown. With a focus on redeemability as a basic operating mechanism of the system, Lehrman’s proposal would avoid the basic contradiction that eventually blew up Bretton Woods: trying to combine both a Classical stable-money and Mercantilist funny-money approach in one ugly disaster (http://www.newworldeconomics.com/archives/2014/021614.html). We could have another Bretton Woods-like conference, followed by another two decades – better yet, two centuries – of peace and economic abundance. But, we better understand what we’re going to talk about (http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanlewis/2013/08/29/building-a-big-foundation-for-the-next-world-monetary-system/) once we get there. ccccccccccccccWWWWWWWWWWWWWWccccccccccccccccccccccc
bloomberg: China’s management of the world’s second-largest economy hasn’t gone swimmingly (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-08/china-just-killed-the-world-s-biggeststock-index-futures-market) of late, but authorities have succeeded in one vital though little-noticed mission. They’ve closed the gap between the market value of the yuan and its official daily value, known as the “fixing.” Matching the fixing of the Chinese currency with its market rate is an essential step before the International Monetary Fund will consider making the yuan one of its reserve currencies, along with the U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen, the British pound, and the euro, said Marc Chandler, a senior vice president and head of currency for Brown Brothers Harriman in New York. Raising the yuan’s profile remains a priority for the Chinese government, even during the current market turmoil. In its bid to become a world financial power, Beijing is playing a long game.
This chart shows that late in 2014 a gap began to open between the market rate of the yuan and the fixing, which is announced daily by a branch of the People’s Bank of China, the nation’s central bank. That worried Chinese authorities, because according to IMF rules the price set in the fixing is supposed to be the one at which market transactions can and do occur. It wasn’t.
(https://iaminvestor.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/postyuandeval_fixing-100915.png) In the chart, the upper line is the market rate for the yuan; it’s expressed in yuan per dollar, so the higher the line, the weaker the yuan. The lower line is the daily fixing. The chart shows that the yuan was weaker than the fixing—that is, weaker than the Chinese government wanted it to be. The gap was never big, always inside the plus or minus 2 percent band within which the government allowed the yuan to fluctuate daily. Then came Aug. 11, when China abruptly changed the fixing, weakening the yuan by about 1.8 percent. The move seems to have been more an acknowledgment of the yen’s weakness in the market than a bid to increase China’s competitiveness. But currency traders, guessing that Beijing would weaken the yuan more to stimulate exports, pushed the rate even lower. Chinese authorities didn’t try to hold the line with the fixing. Instead, they let the official rate follow the market rate precisely. If they had fought the market by setting a stronger fixing, they surely would have lost, and damaged the nation’s bid to make the yuan a reserve currency. That may not look like a big deal to Americans, who are used to a floating currency. In Chicago, Chandler noted, currency futures are traded right next to livestock futures. The Chinese, in contrast, have a tradition of a highly managed currency. “Most countries don’t accept in principle that currencies should be traded like bacon,” Chandler said. “Nobody knows officially how China gets to its fixing. It’s still a black box. It says it takes prices from many banks, more than a dozen, including foreign banks,” but there seem to be other considerations at work, he said. “My sense is that they’ve engineered this so it looks right. Now that it looks right, they’ll engineer the substance behind it.” bloomberg: What happens in Beijing doesn’t stay in Beijing. The high costs associated with maintaining the yuan’s peg to the U.S. dollar amid weakening economic data prompted a startling currency devaluation by China on Aug 11, 2015. Since then, the move has come to be viewed as the proximate cause for the upheaval (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-27/deutsche-bank-it-s-chinese-quantitative-tightening-that-sbeen-slamming-markets-around-the-world)in financial markets over the past month, and led to devaluations from other nations with fixed exchange rates. Capital outflows have been Chinese policymakers’ biggest headache. These waves of money leaving the world’s second-largest economy are a source of downward pressure on the yuan and have a deleterious effect on domestic liquidity – the last thing a nation that’s enjoyed an extended run of buoyant, credit-fueled growth needs. Because China’s delicate balancing act isn’t a permanent solution, market participants are wondering how – and when – it might end. Analysts at Deutsche Bank, Barclays and Societe Generale estimated last week that the People’s Bank of China depleted its foreign reserves by between $100 to $200 billion in August in order to stabilize the yuan after the shock devaluation prompted traders to see how low the exchange rate could be pushed and capital outflows, in all likelihood, did not abate. As such, the recently stability in the exchange rate has been a façade – and an expensive one at that. “The PBoC appeared to be heavily active in the spot market after the currency regime change on 11 August in order to stabilize the yuan,” wrote Societe Generale China economist Wei Yao.“Onshore yuan trading volume almost doubled in the 15 trading days following 11 August, compared to the previous 20 trading sessions and the year to date average.”
Societe Generale Meanwhile, Barclays’ rates and foreign exchange team estimates that the People’s Bank of China would have to cut the reserve requirement ratio by a minimum of 40 basis points per month just to offset negative effects on liquidity from its foreign exchange interventions, given the current pace of capital outflows. This fragile equilibrium, however, could endure for longer than you might expect. Even after the drawdown in August, Societe Generale’s Yao estimates that the People’s Bank of China has a hefty $3.5 trillion in foreign reserves. According to official data released (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-07/china-s-foreign-exchange-reserves-fall-in-august-on-yuan-support) on Monday, China’s currency hoard declined by a less-than-feared but still significant $93.9 billion in August, leaving it with $3.56 trillion remaining. Chinese policymakers likely desire to maintain a sizable buffer in the form of foreign reserves, so Yao thinks they would only be willing to sell $1 trillion of their assets in order to defend the yuan. This suggests that China could probably maintain its current exchange-rate management tactics for many months, but not necessarily years. Chinese policymakers can try to stabilize their exchange rate through actions other than direct intervention. Societe Generale’s Yao has suggested that the imposition of more capital controls (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-31/socgen-half-hearted-capital-controls-are-coming-to-china) could prevent more funds from leaving the country. On the other hand, Deutsche Bank Chief China Economist Zhiwei Zhang points out that the government could open up financial markets to more participants, like insurance companies, in order to induce flows into the country.
Mercifully for China, the storm appears to be abating, for now. “On the first two trading days in September, the [dollar-yuan] rate actually had sizable appreciations with shrinking daily trading volumes,” observed Zhang.
Deutsche Bank But going forward, it’s only a matter of when and how much the yuan will fall, according to the analysts. Barclays and Societe Generale are calling for the yuan to decline by 7 percent relative to the U.S. dollar by year-end, with Yao citing the futility of this “war of attrition against capital outflows.” “[T]he longer that significant FX intervention takes place, such costs [in terms of foreign reserve depletion, tightening domestic liquidity, and the need to offset it] will increase, and likely only delaying, rather than reducing, expectations of further CNY depreciation,” added Barclays. Deutsche Bank expects a much more modest depreciation for the duration of 2015. For now, Chinese policymakers will be content to watch how financial markets digest an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve before making their next move, according to Zhang. “We expect the government to keep the current arrangement for the rest of 2015, and monitor how international market reacts to rate hike in the U.S.,” he asserted. “It is unlikely that the People’s Bank of China attempts to repeat what it did on Aug. 11 before the U.S. rate hike.” BEIJING, Aug. 29 (Xinhua) — The Ministry of Commerce (MOC) has defended China’s overhauling of its exchange rate formation mechanism, a move which has seen a significant drop in the Chinese yuan’s central parity rate against the U.S. dollar. There has been concern in the international market over the connection between the yuan’s depreciation and China’s efforts to boost exports. However, the MOC said in a statement late on Friday night that the drop, of 4.6 percent in three days after the adjustment on Aug. 11, was “a normal adjustment” and will have limited impact on foreign trade. Since late last year, there had been a significant discrepancy between the yuan’s central parity rate and the spot trading rate. The new quotation regime of the central parity helped narrow the gap and allowed the market to play a bigger role in determining the yuan’s exchange rates, the statement said. On Aug. 11, China’s central bank ordered that daily central parity quotes reported to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System before the market opens should be based on the closing rate of the inter-bank foreign exchange market the previous day, supply and demand, and price movement of major currencies. After dipping 4.6 percent in the following three days, the yuan’s central parity against the dollar has since stabilized. “Under a global value chain, there is a downstream and upstream industrial division and international trade within a single industry is very common. So the boosting effect on exports arising from a currency depreciation will be shared by various economies and thus weakened,” according to the MOC. It said the impact of a one-off rate adjustment on Chinese exports will be limited because around half of it is accounted for by processing trade, in which products’ raw materials are imported to China and the finished products are re-exported after assembly. There is no basis for continued depreciation of the yuan, and the exchange rate will be kept “basically stable at an adaptive and equilibrium level,” the statement also said. oooooooooooCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCooooooooooooooooooooo la-times: By James F. Peltz contact the reporterAsiaWall Street endured a wild ride today, with the Dow Jones industrial average closing with a loss of 588.47 points, or down about 3.6%.The drama followed volatility and major losses in markets worldwide as they responded to another big sell-off in China.The blue-chip industrials skidded as much as 1,089 points moments after the opening bell, then cut that loss dramatically to about 115 points before falling again.The average has dropped more than 9% in the last week and has lost about 12% from its record high of 18,312.39 set on May 19, which puts it in the so-called correction territory of a decline of 10% or more.Other key U.S. indexes also tumbled Monday. The broader Standard & Poor’s 500 index was down 77.66 points, or 3.9%, and the tech-laden Nasdaq composite index also was off 179.79, or 11.1%Chris Hardt, a financial advisor at Edward Jones, has been telling clients that Monday morning’s pullback is not unusual.“The market will pull back 10% about once a year on average,” he said. “This is a normal thing.”Long term, the market still looks strong, said Michael Kanigher, a UBS managing director and private wealth advisor in Los Angeles.“We’re in a volatile market, and these pullbacks are going to occur for reasons,” he said. “The reason today is China. Before, you could insert Greece and talk about the same problems. Right now, the market seems to be doing well, and definitely not on a path to a recession.”The Dow’s worst point drop for a full day was 777.68 points on Sept. 29, 2008, which amounted to a 6.98% drop. The average’s worst percentage decline for a full session was 22.6% on Oct. 19, 1987.Among the market’s leading stocks, Apple Inc. fell 2.5% to $103.12; and General Electric Co. lost 2.9%. Netflix Inc. plummeted 6.8% to $96.88. All had seesawed as they recovered from deeper intraday losses.Traders looking for a safer haven bid up Treasury bond prices, sending their yields sharply lower. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond fell below 2% — to 1.96% — for the first time since April, but ended the day at 2%, down from 2.05%.
Dow performance still far from 2008 drop U.S. and foreign stocks again followed a massive sell-off in China amid growing fears about China’s slowing economy and the ripple effect it could have on corporations worldwide that do business with China.China’s benchmark indicator, the Shanghai composite index, tumbled 8.5% on Monday, triggering the global sell-off. The Nikkei index in Japan skidded 4.6%, as did the Stoxx Europe 50 index in Europe. Major indexes also fell in Germany and Taiwan.Even with its loss this year, the Shanghai index remains 43% higher than it was a year ago.The sell-off occurred despite an announcement by China’s Cabinet on Sunday that authorities would allow pension funds managed by local governments to invest in the market, potentially providing a boost worth hundreds of billions of dollars.Chinese state media reported on Monday’s losses without commenting on government plans or policy — Xinhua, the state news service, ran a four-line story on the plunge, focusing on markets beyond the country’s borders.”Today’s stock market drops worldwide afford further evidence that the past decade has been China’s ‘Roaring ’20s’ — and that the chickens are now coming home to roost,” said Cornell Law School professor Robert Hockett, an expert in financial and monetary law.”China’s emerging middle class has taken on huge quantities of private debt in recent years to buy everything from real estate to stocks,” he said. “The result has been a sequence of classic credit-fueled asset price bubbles much like those experienced by the U.S. in the 1920s and early 2000s.”Now that asset prices have leveled off and reversed, millions of Chinese are faced with the prospect of owing more on their debts than their assets are worth — just like U.S. investors and homeowners before them.”Users of Sina Weibo, the country’s most popular microblog, voiced concerns that the rout would precipitate a global recession, similar to the 2008 financial crisis. “Is a global recession really coming?” wrote one user, Lilyyuncai. “Why shouldn’t the government adopt some measures to deal with this?”Analysts said the Chinese government’s heavy-handed response to midsummer turmoil in the country’s stock markets, followed by a surprise currency devaluation on Aug. 11, have shaken investor confidence in the ability of the country’s economic policymakers to mitigate a further downturn.Any protracted slowdown in China would have ripple effects around the world; global stocks have fallen by more than $5 trillion since mid-August, when the currency devaluation was announced.“This is very much the delayed hangover of the bursting bubble,” said Fraser Howie, coauthor of “Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundation of China’s Extraordinary Rise.”“Back seven weeks ago during the government intervention, when [the government] bought billions of dollars of shares, the market thought that it would get support to encourage buying. Now, there’s some clarity that the government isn’t always going to be there.”Twitter: @peltzlatimesL.A. Times staff writers Jonathan Kaiman in Beijing and Samantha Masunaga in Los Angeles contributed to this report. Nikkei Asian Review- TOKYO — Uncertainty over the Chinese economy is deepening, with a string of economic figures, including those for investment, production, consumption and trade, all deteriorating.This has prompted the People’s Bank of China, the central bank, to devalue the Chinese currency, the yuan, against the dollar, sending shock waves through global markets.The big question now is: What is actually happening to the Chinese economy?Beijing has set a target of keeping the economy growing by around 7% on an inflation-adjusted basis. But changes in the real growth rate do not clearly reflect a turning point in the economy.In the April-June quarter, China’s economy grew 7% on the year in real terms — exactly the same as the target growth rate. In the same period of 2014, growth was 7.5%. The growth figure for April-June 2015 makes it appear that the economy has been slowing only gradually in the past year or so. But changes in the nominal growth rate paint a completely different picture. Nominal growth, or growth before adjusting for inflation, reflects economic conditions facing businesses and consumers more vividly than real growth. After standing at 11.2% in the July-September quarter of 2013, China’s nominal growth rate started tumbling. It slowed to just 5.8% in the January-March quarter of 2015, well below the real growth rate of 7% for the same period. It was the first time in six years that real growth exceeded nominal growth. If such a situation persists, it could raise concerns over possible deflation in the world’s second-largest economy. China’s currency policy also reached a key milestone this past spring. TADANORI YOSHIDA, Nikkei senior staff writer The central bank puts emphasis on the yuan’s effective exchange rate, which shows the currency’s total power. According to estimates by the Bank for International Settlements, the yuan’s real effective exchange rate surged by about 18 percentage points between May in 2014 and March this year. But the sharp rise in the yuan’s real effective exchange rate stopped and the rate began to drop in April. China’s surprise devaluation of the yuan against the dollar on Aug. 11 is in line with the central bank’s currency policy since spring. It is apparently aimed at sending a clear message at home and abroad that China has reversed the yuan’s rising trend. Nominal growth exceeded real growth again in the April-June quarter due to such government measures as increasing permits for public works projects. But the weakening of the Chinese economy shows no sign of stopping, with economic figures for July showing consumption growth losing steam and auto production slumping. Mihoko Hosokawa, a researcher at Mizuho Bank (China), predicted that China “will do everything in its power to prevent any further economic slowdown” because it fears a possible rise in social unrest. China will likely continue to pursue conventional stimulus measures, such as more lending by major banks and increased investment in railway, airport and other infrastructure projects — at least for a while. Meanwhile, the pace of China’s economic reforms could slacken. The country faces the daunting challenge of consolidating industries larded with uncompetitive companies and excess facilities. To be sure, such a winnowing process could make the employment situation worse. But shying away from doing so would delay progress in efforts to make the economy more efficient. Beijing is under growing pressure to perform a delicate balancing act between shoring up the sluggish economy in the near term and ensuring stable economic growth in the medium- and long-term.
smh: Global markets tumble on China, growth fears Date August 21, 2015 – 7:49AM World stock markets tumbled and Brent oil prices remained under pressure on Thursday as another slump in the equity market of China, the world’s No. 2 economy, stoked concerns about sluggish global growth. Wall Street was also weighed down by a drop in finance stocks and fell for a third straight session as expectations cooled for a US interest rate hike in September, which also kept the dollar lower. The declines in equities put the S&P 500 back into negative territory for the year. The Nasdaq suffered its biggest daily per centage drop since April 10, 2014. Fears of slowing growth in China has spooked markets. Photo: Bloomberg Locally, the futures are pointing to a 75-point at the drop for the ASX. Stocks in China tumbled again, with both the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets down more than 3 per cent. Investors have been concerned a weak currency and slowing economy may spur further capital outflows. “The largest issue is certainly the fact that we don’t know how much the Chinese economy is slowing,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities in New York.
Financials hit In a broad selloff on Wall Street, in which each of the 10 major S&P sectors lost ground, financials dropped 2.1 per cent. The drop comes in the wake of minutes released Wednesday from the Federal Reserve’s July meeting, which cooled expectations the Fed will start to raise interest rates as early as September, the first such move in nearly a decade. A 6-per cent drop in Disney to $US100.20 also weighed heavily. Bernstein downgraded the stock along with Time Warner , down 5 per cent to $US73.91, to lead media stocks lower, citing massive structural upheaval in the industry. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 358.04 points, or 2.06 per cent, to 16,990.69, the S&P 500 lost 43.88 points, or 2.11 per cent, to 2,035.73 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 141.56 points, or 2.82 per cent, to 4,877.49. MSCI’s all-country world stock index lost 1.5 per cent after touching a 7-month low. The Fed minutes showed officials in broad agreement that the US economy was nearing the point where interest rates should move higher. It also noted lagging inflation and that a weak global economy posed too big a risk to commit to a rate “liftoff.”
Broad declines The FTSEuroFirst index of 300 leading European shares fell 1.9 per cent and Germany’s DAX fell 2.1 per cent to its lowest close since January. That put the DAX down about 7.8 per cent so far this month, its worst month in four years. In Asia, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan shed 1.5 per cent to a two-year low, marking a fifth consecutive day of losses in what is its longest losing streak this year. Benchmark 10-year notes were last up 16/32 in price to yield 2.0731 per cent from 2.50 per cent in mid-June. The dollar shed 0.61 per cent to 96.028 against a basket of major currencies amid the diminished rate hike expectations, touching a 5-week low of 95.724. US crude oil managing to bounce off its support level near $US40 a barrel and from a 6-1/2 year low of $US40.21 as the first hurricane of the 2015 Atlantic season sparked some concern. The contract settled up 0.8 per cent at $US41.14, while Brent crude settled down 1.2 per cent at $US46.62. MSCI’s emerging market index set a near four-year low, having fallen 22 per cent from this year’s high hit in April. Kazakhstan fired the latest salvo in an emerging market currency war, ditching a trading band on its currency, the tenge, which lost a quarter of its value. Reuters Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/global-markets-tumble-on-china-growth-fears-20150820-gj49fb.html#ixzz3jOnIjrso (http://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/global-markets-tumble-on-china-growth-fears-20150820-gj49fb.html#ixzz3jOnIjrso) Follow us: @theage on Twitter (http://ec.tynt.com/b/rw?id=bRrpOkwwyr34jFadbiUt4I&u=theage) | theageAustralia on Facebook (http://ec.tynt.com/b/rf? id=bRrpOkwwyr34jFadbiUt4I&u=theageAustralia)
Fears of currency war overstated Linda Lim THE STRAIT TIMES PUBLISHED AUG 19, 2015, 5:00 AM SGT 215 1 0
China’s move last week to devalue the yuan has drawn much bad press, sparking talk of competitive devaluation, or currency wars. This is an overreaction. What the Chinese did was to bring the controlled yuan more in line with market forces. The past week’s turmoil in global and especially Asian currency markets reflects investors’ and some politicians’ misunderstanding of the Chinese yuan devaluation. In some quarters, there has been an overreaction to the impact of the move. What is happening is not indicative of an emerging markets “currency war”, as many have surmised. Instead, it was an intervention to let the yuan move in tandem with the market. First, some background. China’s currency has been tightly linked to the US dollar for many years, meaning that it rises when the dollar rises, and falls when the dollar falls. In the past couple of years, the dollar has soared on the back of stronger economic growth in the United States than in its trading partners, and in anticipation of the US Fed’s long-promised interest-rate increase. Both these developments raise the relative returns to investments in US dollar assets, drawing capital away from other countries. The strengthening US dollar means that other currencies have weakened against it and the dollar-pegged Chinese yuan. In the stagnating Japanese and European economies, belated monetary stimulus in the form of government bond-buying or “quantitative easing” on top of near-zero interest rates, have had the effect of weakening the yen and euro, thus cheapening and increasing exports from Japan and Europe and restoring some economic growth there. Since 2013, China has been experiencing slowing economic growth, in part because its policymakers seek to “rebalance” the now-middle-income economy away from past over-reliance on investment by state-owned enterprises (often into unproductive activities) and exports, towards more consumption which would increase the welfare of the Chinese people. Slower growth in China means falling demand for and hence import of raw materials and energy from commodity-exporting countries like Canada, Australia, Brazil, Indonesia and many other developing economies. This further depresses the currencies of these countries, already suffering from an outflow of capital to the higher-growth, soon-to-be-higher- interest-rate US. Taken together, these developments caused China’s currency to strengthen by some 30 per cent as other countries’ currencies weakened against the soaring US dollar to which the yuan was pegged. In May this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) pronounced the yuan “no longer undervalued”. The yuan continued to rise even as Chinese growth slowed, capital flight increased, and most recently, its stock markets tumbled. DEVALUATION TO KEEP PACE WITH THE MARKET In these circumstances, the fact that the Chinese monetary authorities did not re-peg or devalue the increasingly overvalued yuan before last week, and by a greater percentage, is testimony to their political determination to keep the yuan strong as part of their hope to transform it into an international reserve currency like the dollar, euro, yen and pound sterling. But part of this transformation also requires that the currency’s value be determined by market forces, rather than government fiat. In recent weeks, market forces have been pushing the yuan down below its daily trading floor. If the yuan were freely floating like many other currencies, it would likely have drifted even further downward. Bear in mind that the yuan doesn’t trade freely. It is pegged to the US dollar. The People’s Bank of China, the central bank, sets a daily target figure for the yuan and allows trading within a tight band of 2 per cent above or below it. On Aug 11, the central bank set the target 1.9 per cent below the previous day’s level, the biggest one-day change within a decade. The yuan’s value fell correspondingly. On Aug 12, it set the rate another 1.6 per cent lower, sparking another round of devaluation. The bank also changed the way the yuan’s target value is set, saying it will be more responsive to market forces, and be based on the previous day’s closing value. Given the circumstances, the move last week was a response to market forces: the equivalent of loosening the screws to allow the yuan to float down in response to market forces, which was what happened. The Chinese monetary authorities have argued that their move was in tandem with market forces, and the International Monetary Fund has validated this. Another thing the Chinese authorities did was to intervene in the market to stem a further slide on the yuan after the devaluation. It did so by entering the market to buy yuan with some of their copious foreign exchange reserves. In so doing, they were acting like many other countries with “managed float” regimes (including Singapore), where daily buying and selling of currencies is done to moderate exchange rate fluctuations. OVERREACTION TO THE DEVALUATION So why the outcry, particularly in the US, that China is “manipulating” its currency to gain an unfair competitive edge for its exports in world markets? One reason is that we are once again in the “silly season” of US presidential election politics where China provides a convenient whipping boy for candidates anxious to show off their nationalist credentials. But a more important reason is probably the lack of understanding on the part not only of politicians, but also of the public and even business leaders, of the complexities involved in currency movements. First, the 2 to 3 per cent yuan depreciation is small, certainly against its prior 30 per cent appreciation. Second, a weaker currency does not automatically mean cheaper and more exports that would benefit China. For one thing, exports usually include imported components (like raw materials), and the cost of those in domestic currency rises when the currency weakens. For another, businesses which have borrowed abroad (for example, because of lower US dollar interest rates) are now faced with higher debt repayment burdens, which also raise their costs and shrink their margins. And, any stronger demand for exports could raise domestic inflation, especially where labour is scarce. Many of China’s exports are complementary rather than competitive with those of other countries, being part of regionally or globally integrated manufacturing supply chains. Just because the Chinese portion of what goes into exports are slightly cheaper due to a lower yuan, does not mean that Chinese exports will increase in volume greatly. Exports don’t just depend on relative prices. They depend also on foreign demand, which is in turn dependent on foreign income growth. Will a weaker yuan – and stronger dollar – boost Chinese exports to the United States? Consider that a stronger US dollar makes US exports more expensive abroad, and imports cheaper within the US. This hurts demand for US multinationals’ goods. A strong US dollar also means foreign profits translate into fewer US dollars when repatriated, hitting bottom lines. Meanwhile, US companies lose market share to European and Japanese competitors whose currencies, the euro and yen, are falling more than the yuan. It is thus not at all clear that a weak yuan will result in a boost in Chinese exports to the United States, if US income growth cannot support that surge in demand. In contrast, many US companies import parts and components from China, so they may even benefit as these get cheaper due to a weaker yuan. For some companies like car assemblers, strong growth in the US market has outweighed the negative effects of the strong dollar, just as slowing growth in China has cut demand for the products they manufacture there for the Chinese market. SOUTH-EAST ASIA AND A WEAKER YUAN South-east Asia is not as fortunate. In this region, foreign exchange earnings from commodity exports have fallen due to slower Chinese demand in recent years (including from slower Chinese export growth partly from the strong yuan). Their currencies weakened significantly before the yuan devaluation, due to outflows of capital responding to anticipated better investment returns in the US. Weaker currencies increased import and foreign debt repayment costs.
But the monetary authorities have been reluctant to raise interest rates to support currencies and reduce the risk of imported inflation, because this would further slow domestic growth. A weaker yuan might also reduce Chinese investment in the region and divert labour-intensive export manufacturing back to China. Going forward, the best outcome for the Chinese, US, South-east Asian and world economies is for China to continue to liberalise its financial system and currency as its officials have reiterated it is determined to, and for the US Fed to finally raise interest rates. Both actions will reduce the uncertainty which is currently spooking investors and roiling markets. The Fed at least has been transparent about what it intends to do and why (but not when or at what pace). The problem with China is the lack of trust by both domestic and foreign investors that the government will indeed continue to pursue necessary market- oriented economic reforms despite slowing growth and domestic political resistance.
Its recent role in both fuelling the stock market bubble (on the heels of prior credit and property bubbles), and intervening to prevent its deflation, has cast doubt on the extent to which “market fundamentals” will be allowed to determine the currency’s value as well. Ironically, capital market actors base their “market-driven” investment decisions on governments’ policy credibility, which can only be earned by observed actions. And that supposed “currency war”? Europe, Japan and other Asian countries did not engineer depreciation in their currencies to give their exports a competitive edge in global markets, though for some, that might have been an (intended or unintended) effect of domestic monetary stimulus, and for others, of US monetary tightening. Given how delayed, and small, the yuan devaluation has been to date, and the long-term goal of a strong and stable currency, it is highly unlikely that China devalued to spur a currency war, or that other countries will deliberately imitate it. Most already have floating currencies, and in this ever-more-integrated world economy, competitive devaluations will not only “beggar our neighbours”, but ourselves as well. The writer is professor of strategy at the Stephen M. Ross School of Business, University of Michigan, in the United States. BEIJING. Kebijakan bank sentral China menahan laju depresiasi nilai tukar yuan, diperkirakan kalangan ekonom bakal menggerus cadangan devisa negeri Tirai Bambu tersebut. Menurut sejumlah ekonom yang disurvei Bloomberg, cadangan devisa China akan menyusut US$ 40 miliar per bulan akibat intervensi People’s Bank of China (PBOC) di pasar keuangan negeri tersebut. PBOC diperkirakan bakal mengucurkan dana cukup besar untuk menahan depresiasi kurs yuan. Sebagai konsekuensinya, hingga akhir tahun ini, cadangan devisa China diproyeksi akan menyusut menjadi US$ 3,45 triliun dari posisi pada akhir Juli lalu sebesar US$ 3,65 triliun. Ken Peng, analis dari Citigroup Inc di Hong Kong menilai, sebagai negara dengan cadangan devisa terbesar di dunia, China akan mengucurkan banyak cadangan devisa untuk mencapai tujuannya tersebut. “Bank sentral China akan sering melakukan intervensi di pasar valuta asing dalam tiga bulan ke depan untuk menjaga stabilitas mata uang yuan,” ungkap Peng. Kebijakan intervensi PBOC menahan depresiasi yuan tersebut bertujuan untuk membatasi hengkangnya modal asing. Pasalnya, lebih dari dua dekade, laju pertumbuhan ekonomi di Negeri Panda itu mengalami perlambatan. Bahkan, untuk mendukung kebijakan intervensi PBOC, cadangan devisa China telah tergerus hingga US$ 192 juta dalam tujuh bulan terakhir. Survei Bloomberg juga menunjukkan, di sisa akhir tahun ini, nilai tukar yuan terhadap dollar Amerika Serikat (AS) akan melemah 1,6% menjadi 6,50 per dollar AS. Pada pekan lalu, otoritas moneter China memborong yuan melalui bank agen untuk menstabilkan nilai tukar yuan. Kebijakan ini dilakukan setelah pada 11 Agustus yuan didevaluasi akibat ekonomi China masih tergelincir dalam dua dekade. Setelah kebijakan devaluasi, dalam lima hari terakhir, mata uang yuan melemah 2,9% menjadi 6,3947 per dollar AS. Pada Senin lalu (17/8), nilai tukar yuan diperdagangkan turun 0,05%. Huang Wentao dan Zheng Lingyi, analis dari China Securities Co berpendapat, China akan terus mengeluarkan biaya yang besar untuk mempertahankan stabilitas nilai tukar yuan terhadap dollar AS. “Ini termasuk mengorbankan ekspor dan menggunakan cadangan devisa,” ujar Wentao. Editor: Dikky Setiawan SUMBER: BLOOMBERG (http://www.bloomberg.com/) Shanghai -Semua orang punya mimpi buruk. Bagi investor global, mimpi buruk terbarunya adalah China. Kok bisa? Bagi investor, kestabilan ekonomi adalah segala-galanya. Tidak perlu naik terlalu tinggi, tidak juga anjlok sangat dalam, yang penting stabil dan tumbuh secara perlahan. Nah, kestabilan itu dirusak oleh Negeri Tirai Bambu, mulai dari pasar saham yang anjlok hingga pelemahan nilai tukar yuan terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat (AS) yang disengaja oleh the People’s Bank of China. Situasi di China menjadi lebih menakutkan ketimbang, jatuhnya harga minyak, melonjaknya dolar AS, gejolak di Yunani, bahkan rencana naiknya suku bunga The Federal Reserve. Pekan lalu, China sudah bikin geger gara-gara sengaja melemahkan yuan. Negara dengan ekonomi terbesar kedua itu ingin menaikkan daya saing ekspornya yang sedang melambat. “Apakah mereka (China) tidak tahu apa yang sudah mereka lakukan? Sepertinya begitu, dan ini membuat investor di seluruh dunia mulai ketakutan,” ujar Ed Yardeni, President Direktur Yardeni Research dalam riset yang dibagikan kepada kliennya, seperti dikutip CNN, Rabu (18/8/2015). Kemarin, mimpi buruk investor datang lagi. Indeks Komposit Shanghai terjun bebas hingga 6,2% dalam sehari. (ang/ang) The most shocking thing about the world’s reaction to China’s decision to devalue the yuan was that anyone should have been surprised. For those who have watched China’s deteriorating economic growth since late 2014 and the ineffectiveness of monetary easing by the People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, currency devaluation appeared to be not only logical, but also inevitable. Since recording its last double-digit rate of 10.4% in 2010, China’s economic growth has slowed by 3 percentage points over four years to 7.4% in 2014. In response, Chinese policymakers injected massive amounts of credit into the economy. Although estimates vary, total credit growth from 2011 to 2014 probably equaled 100% of Chinese gross domestic product, raising the debt-to-GDP ratio to around 280% at the end of 2014, according to McKinsey, the business consultancy. Undeterred by the prospect of creating a financial crisis, the Chinese government continued to double down on monetary easing. Since last November, the PBOC has cut interest rates four times by a total of 115 basis points and lowered the reserve ratio (the amount of cash banks are required to hold) three times by 150 basis points. This injection of new credit did not do much to revive China’s investment growth, but it did help inflate a gigantic stock market bubble that temporarily created a mirage of prosperity. Unfortunately, the bubble started to collapse in mid-June, forcing Beijing to launch an aggressive and hugely expensive rescue operation to prevent share prices crashing. Meanwhile, the economy deteriorated further. In July, Chinese exports fell 8.3% while its purchasing managers index reading was 47.8%, the lowest in two years. Lessons If we have learned anything about how Beijing deals with difficult economic challenges since the 2008 global financial crisis, it is about its leaders’ attitude of “whatever it takes” and “shoot first (ask questions later).” The decisive factor in any decision has always been maintaining economic growth. To be fair to President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang, they inherited an economic mess in late 2012. A decade of prosperity fueled by explosive export growth, following China’s entry into the World Trade Organization and a resulting real estate and infrastructure investment boom, dampened appetite for reform and created an economy saddled with debt, a property bubble and immense manufacturing overcapacity. After becoming head of the Communist Party in 2012, Xi knew that the party’s long-term survival and his own political fortune would rest on reviving growth through structural reforms. Exactly a year after his appointment, Xi launched an ambitious long-term blueprint for economic reforms. Unfortunately, only modest reforms, mainly in the financial sector, have been implemented in the last two years. Besides being unfairly blamed for fueling the stock market bubble, the liberalization of interest rates and capital controls had no discernible positive impact on growth. Meanwhile, measures more urgently needed, but also more painful, such as financial deleveraging, closing “zombie” firms, and downsizing state-owned enterprises, were delayed or resisted. As long as Xi enjoyed an extended political honeymoon as a result of his crackdown on official corruption, he did not have to worry too much about poor economic performance. But things have changed in recent months. After tightening up and jailing many corrupt senior officials, known as “tigers,” Xi apparently is running out of easy targets. Like a military conflict, an anti-corruption campaign requires constant escalation to demonstrate the dominance of the victor. Xi has become a victim of his own early success. Now he finds himself in a dilemma: to maintain credibility and political dominance, he needs to go after even bigger tigers. Given the rot at the top of China’s Communist Party, there are plenty of super tigers left to catch. But the political costs will be very high as Xi increasingly risks an open split with the most powerful factions in the party. At the same time, the law of diminishing returns has set in. Ordinary people who have been cheering the fall of tigers and junior official “flies” are now gaining less satisfaction from the spectacles of formerly high-flying officials confessing their sins in court. It is nice to have a less corrupt government, but it would be even nicer to have a cleaner government that can also deliver economic prosperity. With less than two and half years left in his first term, time is running out for Xi to demonstrate his capability as a strong leader who can both clean house and revive China’s sagging economic fortunes. If he fails to deliver real economic improvement in the next two years, Xi will have considerably less political capital in the fall of 2017, when the party convenes its 19th congress to decide whether to make him a lame duck by anointing his successor. Pivotal event The pivotal event, in retrospect, that influenced China’s decision to devalue was the rise and fall of the country’s stock market bubble. The bubble initially boosted confidence and, had it lasted, might have lifted short-term growth. But its untimely collapse forced Beijing to resort to desperate measures. In the immediate aftermath of the bursting of the bubble, the Chinese government pumped more than one trillion yuan into the stock market to support overvalued equity prices, unnecessarily fearing that further market declines would trigger a runaway financial crisis that would further depress growth. As Beijing had relied principally on the PBOC’s liquidity support to prop up the market bubble, it then curbed the central bank’s future capacity to stimulate the economy. After all, you can only print so much money without causing high inflation and other serious macroeconomic problems. That left Chinese policymakers with only one quick solution to reinvigorate growth, which was devaluation. Of course, Beijing has skillfully packaged this move as part of reforms to make the yuan more flexible. In a technical sense, this is true. But when you examine the domestic political context of the decision to devalue the currency, it can be seen as a desperate — and a likely unsuccessful — act to export China’s economic woes to a global economy that mirrors the country’s own structural economic maladies: anemic demand, mountainous debts, and excess capacity. Those familiar with Beijing’s “whatever it takes” and “shoot first” modus operandi cannot help but feel that they are watching the same horror movie all over again. NIKKEI ASIAN REVIEW Minxin Pei is a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College and a non-resident senior fellow of the German Marshall Fund of the United States. Beijing – Tingkat paritas tengah nilai tukar mata uang China renminbi atau yuan, menguat 35 basis poin menjadi 6,3975 terhadap dolar AS, Jumat (14/08/2015). Itu setelah selama tiga hari merosot, menurut Sistem Perdagangan Valuta Asing China. Di pasar spot valuta asing China, yuan diperbolehkan untuk naik atau turun sebesar dua persen dari tingkat paritas tengahnya setiap hari perdagangan. Bank sentral China, People’s Bank of China (PBoC) mereformasi sistem pembentukan nilai tukar pada 11 Agustus 2015 menjadi lebih mencerminkan pengembangan pasar dalam nilai tukar yuan China terhadap dolar AS. Tingkat paritas tengah yuan terhadap dolar AS didasarkan pada rata-rata tertimbang dari harga yang ditawarkan oleh pelaku pasar sebelum pembukaan pasar setiap hari kerja dan juga mengacu pada tingkat penutupan pada hari sebelumnya, dalam hubungannya dengan kondisi penawaran dan permintaan serta pergerakan mata uang utama. http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2229581/yuan-china-menguat-terhadap-dolar-as (http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2229581/yuan-china-menguat-terhadap-dolar-as) Sumber : INILAH.COM BEIJING nikkei– It took just three days to show the limits of China’s risky attempt at devaluing its way out of an economic jam. Over that period, the People’s Bank of China lowered the guidance rate around which the currency floats by about 4.5%, starting with a sudden, nearly 2% drop Tuesday. A gap of “about 3%” had separated the benchmark from market rates, PBOC Assistant Gov. Zhang Xiaohui said in a rare news conference Thursday. The bank’s “correction” had “basically ended,” Zhang said, indicating that big reductions were no longer needed. Deputy Gov. Yi Gang called speculation that the central bank would devalue the yuan by 10% to stimulate exports “groundless.” Yi flatly denied what most observers saw as a clear aim of lowering the guidance rate: helping Chinese-made goods compete in foreign markets. Only a select few media outlets were let into the briefing — a type of affair that lives up to its Chinese name, chui feng hui, which literally means “blow-the-wind meetings.” Reporters heard only what the monetary authorities wanted them to. Top PBOC officials do not hold regular news conferences; this one was essentially forced by market unrest. The currency moves, too, were a forced response to an unexpectedly deep economic slowdown. Gauges of industrial output, investment, consumption and exports all worsened in July. Export-driven companies welcome a weak yuan — computer manufacturer Lenovo Group said so, in fact. A set of export promotion measures drawn up by the government late last month included a proposal for increasing the yuan’s downside potential. Massively devaluing the yuan would disrupt global financial markets and rile the U.S., which already has a yawning trade deficit with China. It could also lead to rapid capital outflows from China. That Beijing tried such a risky policy gives an indication of its economic predicament. The PBOC, meanwhile, needed a way to increase the potency of its monetary easing. It had been keeping the yuan artificially strong against downward pressures, in line with the Xi government’s goal of raising the currency’s international standing. This entailed buying up yuan, taking them out of circulation and, in effect, counteracting its own monetary stimulus. The central bank has cut interest rates and taken other steps to loosen credit four times since last fall, but the economy has refused to perk up as hoped. This lack of improvement seems to have driven the PBOC to put supporting the economy ahead of padding the yuan’s role in trade and investment. Indonesia masuk masa resesi dan rupiah terjebak dalam currency war yang dilakukan Jepang, Tiongkok dan AS. infobank Jakarta—Kebijakan devaluasi mata uang Tiongkok, Yuan turut memperdalam pelemahan Rupiah. Sayangnya, kabarnya Tiongkok diperkirakan masih akan melakukan devaluasi secara gradually. Martin Panggabean, Chief Economist IGIco Advisory mengatakan, agar Indonesia tidak menjadi ‘korban’ dari kebijakan finansial negara lain, maka pemerintah perlu menyiapkan grand plan strategy dalam menghadapi global currency war. “Dampak global currency war terhadap kondisi Indonesia ini akan berpengaruh sangat signifikan, karena perekonomian kita sangat rentan. Defisit terhadap Tiongkok akan membengkak, karena banyak proyek infrastruktur di Tanah Air mengandalkan Tiongkok. Tidak hanya raw material, capital goods, tetapi juga human resources,” ungkap Martin. Menurut Martin, Indonesia dengan pertumbuhan sekitar 5% menjadi target empuk bagi pertarungan negara-negara seperti Tiongkok Jepang dan lainnya sebagai pasar mereka. Global currency war, tambahnya adalah sebuah kenyataan bahwa rupiah ikut melemah, dan ini merupakan blessing in disguise. Setelah melemah sejak 2013, PPP index Indonesia ternyata mirip dengan Malaysia yang juga adalah kompetitor Indonesia di pasar minyak kelapa sawit, coklat dan karet. “Artinya bila Rupiah tidak melemah ke level Rp13.000an per dolar AS, maka ekonomi Indonesia yang menjadi bermasalah dalam konteks perdagangan internasional,” tambahnya. Martin menjelaskan, dengan pendekatan ekspektasi pasar ini pelaku pasar finansial (pemodal) terlihat cenderung pesimis terhadap kinerja perekonomian Indonesia. “Perlu disadari bahwa ekonomi Indonesia sedang memasuki fase resesi, sementara ekonomi Amerika Serikat justru akan meninggalkan resesi, dan masuk ke fase normal. Dengan demikian penguatan dolar US adalah konsekuensi yang wajar.” Menurut Martin, fase pesimisme ini dimulai sejak Februari (pada saat kurs masih pada Rp12.600 pe dolar AS) dan terus memburuk sejak itu. Jika pada awal tahun para pelaku pasar masih memperkirakan adanya depresiasi sebesar 5.5% sepanjang 2015, kini para pelaku pasar memperkirakan bahwa depresiasi 12 bulan kedepan adalah sekitar 11%. Dia menilai para pelaku pasar saat ini memperkirakan bahwa kurs pada akhir tahun 2015 akan berada pada kisaran Rp14.000 per dolar AS, sementara pada akhir 2016 kurs sudah mendekati level Rp15.000 per dolar AS. Keputusan tiba-tiba The People’s Bank of China (POB) yang mendevaluasi 1,9% langsung menohok pasar keuangan global, diperkirakan masih akan berlanjut. Tiongkok secara gradually akan melemahkan mata uangnya. “Sama seperti dulu secara gradually mereka menguatkan mata uangnya. Kondisi ini yang akan membuat pasar sulit stabil dan unpredictable.” Sebelumnya, lanjut Martin, Jepang telah mengambil langkah kebijakan devaluasi untuk menumbuhkan ekspor dan ini terbilang sukses, bahkan tanpa kritik dari Amerika Serikat serta negara barat lainnya. ”Belum lagi IMF membatalkan rencana memasukkan Yuan kedalam SDR (Special Drawing Rights). Momentum inilah yang digunakan Tiongkok untuk melemahkan mata uangnya. Big Questions untuk kita adalah : Berapa kali Tiongkok akan melakukan devalusi mata uangnya,” tegas Martin. Untuk itu, pemerintah dengan tim menteri koordinator ekonomi yang baru diharapkan mempunyai strategi dan grand plan “briliant” untuk menghadapi pertarungan mata uang global ini. Martin memperkirakan, dalam 6 bulan kedepan Tiongkok tidak akan berhenti melakukan devaluasi sampai terjadi recovery ekonomi didalam negerinya. “Berarti currency war masih berlanjut. Tiongkok akan sangat kuat terhadap tekanan Amerika Serikat dan negara barat lainnya, karena negara Paman Sam sudah kehilangan kredibilitasnya ketika tidak mengkritisi kebijakan Jepang dalam melakukan devaluasi, secara eksplisit,” jelasnya. Dia menambahkan, kebijakan Tiongkok tidak akan berhenti hanya di pasar finansial saja, goal-nya adalah ekspor ke berbagai negara di dunia. “Saat ini pasar akan bergerak, rupiah akan rentan, kita akan menjadi sasaran produk impor. Lalu bagaimana respon pemerintah untuk dapat benefit maksimum dari kondisi ini,” jelasnya. Martin berharap Tim Ekonomi yang dipimpin Darmin Nasution dapat meyakinkan pasar, dalam melakukan pengendalian defisit government, serta pengendalian current account. Selain itu pemerintah bersama dengan OJK dan Bank Indonesia juga diharapkan menyiapkan strategi ketahanan industri perbankan terhadap serangan currency war. China’s currency cuts aren’t always an attempt to bail out exporters. The most recent move has bigger policy implications. Donald Trump may very well have a field day with today’s currency news, as analysts (http://www.wsj.com/articles/yuan-depreciation-to-create-outcry-in-u-s-congress-1439281969) predict. But he shouldn’t. Today China’s central bank devalued the country’s currency, the renminbi, by about 2% against the U.S. dollar. It was the biggest one-day move since the renminbi, or yuan, officially depegged from the U.S. dollar in 2005. The yuan maintains a close relationship with the dollar and trades 2% in each direction from a midpoint selected by China. Today, that midpoint went from 6.11 yuan per U.S. dollar to 6.22. Trump and others may say China is purposely devaluing its currency to help exports. After all, its economy is struggling to hit the government 7% growth target. But is that what’s really going on? For the most part, China has recently actually wanted its currency to steadily rise, for political reasons and to keep capital from flowing out of China. China’s domestic and international goals align with a stronger yuan. That helps explain why presidential candidates like Trump haven’t been spouting off about China’s currency management as much of late. The answer to why China’s government devalued its currency Tuesday probably has more to do with the dynamics of global currency markets than a sudden urge to help Chinese exporters make their goods cheaper on the world market. First, the yuan is strongly related to the dollar because China still manages the exchange rate within a range against the dollar. When the U.S. dollar rises rapidly against world currencies, like it has in the past year to pull almost even with the euro, the yuan also rises against China’s trading partners’ currencies. China has wanted the yuan to steadily rise against trade-weighted partners for a while. To keep that appreciation gradual, as the dollar rockets upwards, it may have to devalue a little, says Jonathan Anderson, at Emerging Advisors Group, one of the clearest observers of China’s markets. “But this is not the same as a “competitive devaluation” of the renminbi —and there’s nothing like that on the cards,” he wrote today.
“All China is doing today is managing the pace of trade-weighted renminbi appreciation,” Anderson continued. “Any attempt to gain truly meaningful competitiveness vis-à-vis trading partners would require, say, a 20% to 40% devaluation against the dollar.” (menurut gw berarti Yuan akan terdepresiasi ke 1US$ = 7-8 Yuan dalam setaon ke depan). If China had devalued the yuan by, say, 20%, it would clearly be an effort to boost exports for its advantage. A 2% devaluation is different: it simply keeps the yuan a little more in line with trading partners’ currencies, which have lost value relative to the U.S. dollar. (For more on the U.S. dollar’s rise, read this recent Fortune piece (http://fortune.com/2015/02/17/a-stronger-u-sdollar-the-winners-and-losers/).) As mentioned, China actually wants a stronger currency. As recently as April, it was actively trying to strengthen the yuan, the Wall Street Journal reported (http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/04/16/keeping-yuan-stable-hits-chinas-currency-reserves/). The country’s central bank purchased the yuan in the currency markets and sold U.S. dollar holdings, a move aimed at stemming capital outflows from China as the yuan was falling. As Chen Long of Gavekal Dragonomics in Hong Kong recently explained, China has twin (and sometimes competing) goals for exchange rates. On the domestic front, it wants to help exporters with a cheaper currency, but it also wants to maintain a strong currency to prevent capital outflows that may weaken the country’s economy further. On the international side, China wants to avoid a trade war with the U.S., which it would have if it severely weakened the currency. It also wants to boost international use of the yuan for political purposes, as China asserts itself more strongly around the world. The country’s recent campaign to have the yuan join the mostly meaningless IMF reserve currency is one example of China desiring a strong currency. In the end, these multiple goals again promote a slightly stronger currency. China’s central bank said (http://www.pbc.gov.cn/publish/english/955/2015/20150811090338341860668/20150811090338341860668_.html) Tuesday’s yuan depreciation was a way to make the country’s financial system more market-oriented. The bank said market spot prices would now determine the daily position, implying that the central bank would step in less to influence it. Over the past few months the yuan-dollar spot price had been lower than the exchange rate, and it became clear the central bank was supporting a stronger yuan. There are reasons the government doesn’t deserve the benefit of the doubt when it says it’s in the business of market-based approaches. President Xi Jinping’s administration said the same thing before pledging around (http://fortune.com/2015/07/27/china-stock-market-crashes-again-with-panic-selling/)$800 billion in government money last month to prop up the falling stock market. China’s words and actions don’t always match. But there are also reasons that today’s devaluation shouldn’t only be viewed through the prism of trade. First, other exporters in Asia, including South Korea and Taiwan, are hurting because of weak demand abroad. Sluggish economies in Europe and the U.S. influence China’s exports. That’s is not all solved by currency devaluations. Second, China can use other mechanisms to boost its economy. Internet rates and bank reserve requirements can still be cut considerably, and analysts expect that to happen. More government spending is already in the works: China’s banks will issue 1 trillion yuan worth of bonds for infrastructure spending, according to recentreports (http://english.caixin.com/2015-08-10/100838149.html). For now, it’s too early to say China is starting a currency war, even if that may be the West’s first inclination. bumi2009fans
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February 4, 2016February 4, 2016
137 Minutes
jatuh hat! “AEC aka MEA”
kok bisa yo, pandangan gw SERUPA pandangan BOS IMF (http://wp.me/pvbrr-28K) JAKARTA ID- Wakil Presiden Jusuf Kalla mengatakan suku bunga perbankan yang tinggi menjadi satu dari empat kelemahan Indonesia dalam persaingan bisnis dengan negara lain.”Kalau kita masih tingkat bunganya lima persen sampai 11 persen, namun di Malaysia lima persen, kita kalah di sini. Apalagi di China,” kata JK dalam sambutannya saat Pertemuan Tahunan Bank Indonesia 2015 di Balai Sidang Jakarta pada Selasa petang. Menurut JK, untuk memperbaiki ekonomi dalam negeri, perbankan juga perlu menurunkan suku bunga untuk kredit usaha rakyat (KUR). Dengan penurunan suku bunga tersebut maka tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi masyarakat bisa meningkat. “Lebih mahal bunga untuk UKM. Saya sebagai pengusaha, saya minta turunkan apapun risikonya,” tegas JK. JK menjelaskan, untuk meningkatkan pertumbuhan investasi di Indonesia, perbankan perlu memberikan tawaran yang menarik bagi pelaku usaha seperti suku bunga yang rendah. “Tidak mungkin terjadi dua-duanya, bunga tinggi dan investasi tinggi,” kata Wapres. Selain itu, kelemahan kedua Indonesia dalam persaingan ekonomi dengan negara lain adalah fasilitas infrastruktur dan sektor logistik. Pemerintah, jelas Wapres, saat ini sedang dalam proses membangun sejumlah infrastruktur di pusat dan daerah untuk mendongkrak ekonomi sekaligus menambah lapangan pekerjaan. Kelemahan ketiga Indonesia menurut JK adalah proses birokrasi untuk usaha yang masih berbelit dan mahal. “Karena itu, dari beberapa kebijakan itu, ada tiga kebijakan untuk mempercepat birokrasi ini,” jelas Wapres. Selanjutnya adalah persaingan di bidang perbankan dengan negara lain, karena Indonesia masih memberikan suku bunga yang tinggi untuk pembiayaan pembangunan dan usaha. “Marilah kita selesaikan efisiensi di sektor keuangan. Kita tidak mungkin membangun apabila bunga tinggi maka pasti investasi rendah,” kata JK. Sementara itu, Gubernur Bank Indonesia Agus Martowardojo mengatakan BI memproyeksikan perbaikan perekonomian domestik pada 2016 mencapai 5,2 hingga 5,6 persen. Agus mengatakan hal itu didukung oleh permintaan domestik dari sisi investasi mengingat sisi perekonomian global yang belum stabil signifikan. Gubernur BI juga memperkirakan pertumbuhan kredit dan pembiayaan perbankan pada 2016 pada kisaran 12-14 persen yang ditopang oleh dana pihak ketiga sebesar 13-15 persen. Agus mengatakan salah satu kekuatan domestik yang dapat membuat kondisi ekonomi Indonesia tetap optimis di masa depan adalah sejumlah langkah yang dilakukan pemerintah pada 2015 dalam mengatasi hambatan struktural yang menjadi modal dasar perekonomian nasional agar lebih berdaya saing.(ant/hrb) JAKARTA sindonews – Indonesia menurut pengamat Ekonomi, Firmanzah sudah seharusnya percaya diri dalam menghadapi Masyarakat Ekonomi ASEAN (MEA) (http://ekbis.sindonews.com/read/1065851/34/bps-thailand-saingan-terberat-ri-hadapi-mea-1448954727), tahun depan. Jika sebelumnya Indonesia mewaspadai beberapa negara sebagai saingan terberat dalam pasar bebas di asia tenggara, tapi menurut Firmanzah Indonesia juga membuat takut negara lain seperti Singapura. Firmanzah menambahkan Negeri Singa Putih -julukan Singapura- itu mewaspadai keberadaan Indonesia dalam MEA, lantaran Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) yang besar. “Di dalam negeri kita takut dengan Singapura, tapi mereka juga ngeri dengan PDB kita yang besar. Apalagi Indonesia masuk anggota G-20 lalu dan secara absolut tenaga kerja kita luar biasa,” jelasnya di Jakarta, Kamis (3/12/2015). Pernyataan ini, lanjut Firmanzah terlontar langsung dari pihak Singapura dan negara tetangga lain yang sama-sama mewaspadai Indonesia. “Saya ketemu dengan teman di Filipina, Thailand, kita mikir bagaimana kami menang lawan mereka. Mereka juga pada hati-hati sama kita, ini bahasan yang sama bagaimana bisa menang lawan Indonesia,” lanjutnya. (Baca Juga: Hadapi MEA, RI Harus Dorong Ini (http://ekbis.sindonews.com/read/1066427/34/hadapi-mea-ri-harus-dorong-ini-1449117091)) Menurut mantan staf khusus presiden pada masa pemerintahan Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono ini, Indonesia tidak menjadi negara yang sendirian mengkhawatirkan MEA. “Kita tak sendirian, negara lain juga khawatir dengan Indonesia. Dalam KTT ASEAN di Phnom Penh 2012, MEA diundur dari awal 2015 jadi akhir 2015,” tuturnya. Setelah rapat itu, Firmanzah bertemu dengan perwakilan negara ASEAN lainnya dan mendapatkan informasi alasan di undurnya MEA. “Setelah akhir meeting, saya ngobrol dengan mereka, kenapa ngotot diundur? Terkejutnya, mereka bilang kita ngeri bersaing dengan Indonesia,” pungkasnya. (akr) JAKARTA ID- Wakil Presiden Jusuf Kalla mengatakan suku bunga perbankan yang tinggi menjadi satu dari empat kelemahan Indonesia dalam persaingan bisnis dengan negara lain. “Kalau kita masih tingkat bunganya lima persen sampai 11 persen, namun di Malaysia lima persen, kita kalah di sini. Apalagi di China,” kata JK dalam sambutannya saat Pertemuan Tahunan Bank Indonesia 2015 di Balai Sidang Jakarta pada Selasa petang. Menurut JK, untuk memperbaiki ekonomi dalam negeri, perbankan juga perlu menurunkan suku bunga untuk kredit usaha rakyat (KUR). Dengan penurunan suku bunga tersebut maka tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi masyarakat bisa meningkat. “Lebih mahal bunga untuk UKM. Saya sebagai pengusaha, saya minta turunkan apapun risikonya,” tegas JK. JK menjelaskan, untuk meningkatkan pertumbuhan investasi di Indonesia, perbankan perlu memberikan tawaran yang menarik bagi pelaku usaha seperti suku bunga yang rendah. “Tidak mungkin terjadi dua-duanya, bunga tinggi dan investasi tinggi,” kata Wapres. Selain itu, kelemahan kedua Indonesia dalam persaingan ekonomi dengan negara lain adalah fasilitas infrastruktur dan sektor logistik. Pemerintah, jelas Wapres, saat ini sedang dalam proses membangun sejumlah infrastruktur di pusat dan daerah untuk mendongkrak ekonomi sekaligus menambah lapangan pekerjaan. Kelemahan ketiga Indonesia menurut JK adalah proses birokrasi untuk usaha yang masih berbelit dan mahal. “Karena itu, dari beberapa kebijakan itu, ada tiga kebijakan untuk mempercepat birokrasi ini,” jelas Wapres. Selanjutnya adalah persaingan di bidang perbankan dengan negara lain, karena Indonesia masih memberikan suku bunga yang tinggi untuk pembiayaan pembangunan dan usaha. “Marilah kita selesaikan efisiensi di sektor keuangan. Kita tidak mungkin membangun apabila bunga tinggi maka pasti investasi rendah,” kata JK. Sementara itu, Gubernur Bank Indonesia Agus Martowardojo mengatakan BI memproyeksikan perbaikan perekonomian domestik pada 2016 mencapai 5,2 hingga 5,6 persen. Agus mengatakan hal itu didukung oleh permintaan domestik dari sisi investasi mengingat sisi perekonomian global yang belum stabil signifikan. Gubernur BI juga memperkirakan pertumbuhan kredit dan pembiayaan perbankan pada 2016 pada kisaran 12-14 persen yang ditopang oleh dana pihak ketiga sebesar 13-15 persen. Agus mengatakan salah satu kekuatan domestik yang dapat membuat kondisi ekonomi Indonesia tetap optimis di masa depan adalah sejumlah langkah yang dilakukan pemerintah pada 2015 dalam mengatasi hambatan struktural yang menjadi modal dasar perekonomian nasional agar lebih berdaya saing.(ant/hrb) the strait-times: As South-east Asia gets ready for the official introduction of the Asean Economic Community (AEC) on Dec 31, 2015, The Straits Times takes a close-up look at this region which is home to more than 600 million people. Singapore is poised to play a greater role as an exporter of services and skills once the AEC is up and running, a global management consultancy expert says. “Already, Singapore is home to a lot of headquarters for companies in the region,” McKinsey & Company Asia chairman Kevin Sneader told The Straits Times in a May interview. On paper, AEC is expected to facilitate a freer flow of goods, services, skilled labour, jobs and investment capital across Asean. Analysts agree that there is much to gain from full economic integration, but warn thatfactors such as protectionism, the lack of Asean-wide standards in many sectors and regulatory hurdles will be major stumbling blocks.
Here are 7 numbers which explain why AEC matters:
1 SINGLE MARKET AND PRODUCTION BASE With a combined gross domestic product (GDP) of US$2.5 trillion in 2014, Asean now has the third-largest GDP in Asia, after China and Japan. Taken together, Asean’s 10 members already comprise the world’s seventh-largest economy. If growth trends continue, Asean could be the world’s fourth largest single market by 2030, after the EU, US, and China. Overall GDP is forecast to hit US$10 trillion by 2030 – a five-fold expansion from the 2012 figure of US$2.2 trillion.
5 PER CENT GROWTH Barring shocks, annual growth for the whole of Asean is projected to average 5.4 per cent from 2014 to 2018. For comparison, projected growth for the European Union is around 2 per cent and the United States at 3 per cent.
8 GROUPS OF PROFESSIONALS Eight groups of professions – engineers, tourist professionals, dentists, architects, surveyors, accountants, nurses and doctors – will enjoy easier access to regional talent. The International Labour Organization (ILO) says demand for high-skilled workers will increase but warns that inequality could worsen. In a survey of 240 professionals from enterprises and business associations spanning all 10 Asean countries, the ILO found that nearly half (47 per cent) feel that, after integration, their company will have to offer higher wages to retain skilled workers.
SOURCE: INTERNATIONAL LABOUR ORGANIZATION
10 MEMBER COUNTRIES The 10 members are Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Brunei, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar. The chair nation rotates in alphabetical order: Malaysia is the Asean chair this year while landlocked Laos will assume the leadership next year.
27 PER CENT This percentage of Singapore’s direct investment abroad went to Asean in 2012, making the region the city-state’s top investment destination. Singapore is the No. 1 investor in Myanmar, the 3rd largest investor in Vietnam and Thailand’s second-largest investor. Foreign revenue generated by the top 1,000 companies in Singapore by revenue has increased steadily from S$149.9 billion in 2011 to S$223.9 billion in 2014.
SOURCE: MINISTRY OF TRADE AND INDUSTRY
28.8 YEARS OLD Half of Asean’s population was below 28.8 years of age in 2014, compared to 40.8 in China and 42.1 in the European Union. Asean’s youthful population will yield demographic dividend in the form of abundant labour pool and comparatively low wages.
625 MILLION PEOPLE The region has the third-largest labour force in the world, behind China and India. Asean’s population is expected to reach 670 million by 2020, up from 625 million in 2014. Millions of people in the fast emerging markets of Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia are joining the ranks of the consumer middle-class. The number of middle-class households will more than double to 80 million in three years’ time. JAKARTA okezone – Asia Tenggara merupakan kawasan yang memiliki kekuatan ekonomi melalui ekspor. Kekayaan alam dibeberapa negara Asia Tenggara dapat menjadi kunci perekonomian dalam menggerakan sektor ekspor. Namun, saat ini para pemangku kebijakan di kawasan Asia Tenggara harus berhadapan dengan berbagai tantangan dalam bidang perekonomian. Menurut Institute of Chartered Accountants in England dan Wales (ICAEW), terdapat lima tantang yang memiliki risiko terhadap performa ekonomi di kawasan Asia Tenggara. Kelima tantangan tersebut adalah rendahnya harga komoditas, melambatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi China, perdagangan dunia yang sedang melemah, ketidakpastian kenaikan suku bunga US Federal Reserve, serta melemahnya pasar ekspor di kawasan Asia Tenggara. Regional Director ICAEW Mark Billington menuturkan perlambatan ekonomi Cina turut menjadi faktor utama bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi regional ASEAN. “Kebanyakan dari prediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi negara ASEAN menurun setelah melambatnya ekonomi Tiongkok. Secara regional, prediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi akan berada di sekitar 4,6 persen,” tutur Mark dalam keterangan tertulisnya, Jakarta, Jumat (27/11/2015). Regional ASEAN diharapkan mampu mengatasi lima tantangan ini agar dapat tumbuh dalam kawasan sektor regional. Integritas ekonomi regional dapat menjadi tumpuan agar kelima tantangan tersebut dapat diatasi bersama. (rzy) Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Presiden Joko Widodo meminta para pelaku industri nasional optimistis memandang implementasi Masyarakat Ekonomi Asean karena kepala negara tetangga justru takut pasarnya dibanjiri oleh produk Indonesia. Dalam sambutan penyerahan Penghargaan Paramakarya, Presiden Jokowi mengatakan siap tidak siap, suka tidak suka Indonesia bersama sembilan negara di Asean akan mengimplementasikan MEA pada akhir 2015. Presiden meminta para pelaku usaha mendukung pemerintah yang sedang melakukan identifikasi produk dan jasa yang berdaya saing tinggi untuk dipromosikan di pasar tunggal Asean. “Jangan kita dijadikan pasar, mereka masuk ke kita,” tegasnya di Istana Negara, Selasa (24/11/2015). Setelah menghadiri Konferensi Tingkat Tinggi Asean ke-27 di Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 21-22 November 2015, Jokowi meminta industri nasional tidak khawatir dengan implementasi MEA. “Kepala negara dan kepala pemerintahan negara Asean yang lain bisik-bisik ke saya, mereka juga takut kemasukan barang kita,” kata Jokowi. Menurutnya, pasar tunggal Asean berpotensi sangat menguntungkan Indonesia karena pasar Singapura, Malaysia, Brunei, Thailand, Laos, Myanmar, Filipina, Vietnam, dan Kamboja semakin terbuka. Apalagi produk Indonesia memiliki keunggulan dari sisi harga yang relatif lebih murah. “Jadi keliru kalau kita takut. Wong mereka takut kita, kok jadi kita yang takut mereka. Gimana sih?” imbuh Jokowi. KUALA LUMPUR -Pada acara penandatanganan itu di Malaysia, tuan rumah KTT ASEAN Perdana Menteri Najib Razak memuji pembentukan Masyarakat ASEAN “sebagai sebuah pencapaian penting” yang diwujudkan belasan tahun setelah pertama kali diusulkan. “Cara-cara ASEAN kita, telah mengarahkan kita dan akan terus menjadi penunjuk jalan sambil kita mewujudkan ASEAN yang terpadu secara politis, ekonomi yang terintegrasi, bertanggung jawab secara sosial, dan benar-benar berorientasi pada rakyat, serta menjalankan peraturan-peraturan yang menguntungkan rakyat,” ujarnya. Banyak hambatan-hambatan tarif telah dihapuskan di antara negara-negara ASEAN meskipun banyak sektor yang dianggap sensitif masih dilindungi, seperti pertanian, produksi otomotif dan baja. Tapi para analis mengatakan masih banyak yang harus dilakukan oleh Masyarakat Ekonomi ASEAN (AEC) untuk mencapai tujuan utamanya yaitu memungkinkan pergerakan lebih bebas bagi pekerja terampil, perdagangan dan modal bagi kawasan dengan penduduk lebih dari 600 juta orang, atau lebih banyak dari penduduk Amerika Utara atau Uni Eropa. Pengintegrasian ekonomi ASEAN untuk membantu kawasan itu bersaing dengan China dan India, akan menciptakan pasar tunggal ketujuh terbesar di dunia. Di sejumlah negara ASEAN, korupsi masih dianggap endemik, dan menghambat proses integrasi ekonomi itu. Presiden Amerika Barack Obama mengatakan kepada wartawan itu adalah isu yang dibahasnya dengan PM Najib Razak. “Saya membicarakannya dengan Perdana Menteri Najib seperti yang saya lakukan denganbanyak pemimpin Asia Tenggara disini, juga dengan banyak pemimpin di Afrika, di Amerika Latin dan dimana saja, tentang pentingnya transparansi, pertanggung jawaban, pentingnya memberantas korupsi, yang semuanya menghambat pembangunan dan kemajuan negara-negara,” ujarnya. Sebuah Kemitraan Strategis baru ASEAN-Amerika diumumkan dalam KTT di Malaysia itu, menegaskan lima bidang prioritas kemitraan termasuk perluasan kerja sama ekonomi. Masyarakat Ekonomi ASEAN itu dicanangkan untuk berfungsi secara penuh tanggal 31 Desember. (VoaNews) http://id.beritasatu.com/international/10-anggota-asean-tandatangani-deklarasi/133232 (http://id.beritasatu.com/international/10-anggota-asean-tandatangani-deklarasi/133232) Sumber : INVESTOR DAILY JAKARTA – Saat ini sudah banyak perusahaan dalam negeri yang mulai menggunakan peluang di pasar modal untuk mendapatkan dana. Namun rata-rata para investor masih memandang saham dari emiten asing lebih menjanjikan karena memiliki potensi yang kuat. Pengusaha muda sukses Billy Boen juga memiliki pandangan yang sama. Menurutnya banyak dari pemilik modal Indonesia yang lebih memilih berinvestasi di perusahaan asing. “Saya melihat dengan teman-teman pengusaha yang lain banyak sekali mereka membeli saham justru ke perusahaan-perusahaan luar. Sementara perusahaan-perusahaan Indonesia justru mereka kurang simpati, kurang peduli,” tuturnya di Gedung BEI, Jakarta, Jumat (20/11/2015). Padahal, menurut pendiri PT Young On Top (YOT) Nusantara ini, banyak dari perusahaan nusantara yang menaruh harapan besar dengan melantai di bursa saham untuk bisa mengembangkan perusahaannya. Oleh karena itu dirinya berharap agar para investor Indonesia bisa mendukung perusahaan-perusahaan untuk bisa lebih berkembang. Terlebih lagi perusahaan-perusahaan Indonesia butuh dukungan untuk menghadapi persaingan yang semakin ketat. “Jadi kalau ngomongin pasar modal ya penting sekali. Karena ini memberikan kesempatan perusahaan Indonesia jadi lebih besar lagi. Mungkin untuk menghadapi persaingan MEA nanti ataupun global,” pungkasnya. http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/11/20/278/1252755/billy-boen-keluhkan-investor-lebih-pilih-saham-perusahaan-asing (http://economy.okezone.com/read/2015/11/20/278/1252755/billy-boen-keluhkan-investor-lebih-pilih-saham-perusahaan-asing) Sumber : OKEZONE.COM Metrotvnews.com, Jakarta: Asosiasi Asuransi Jiwa Indonesia (AAJI) memperkirakan pertumbuhan industri asuransi jiwa akan tetap tinggi meski Indonesia memasuki era Masyarakat Ekonomi ASEAN (MEA). Bahkan, AAJI memperkirakan industri asuransi jiwa mampu tumbuh berkisar 20 persen hingga 30 persen dalam kurun waktu lima tahun mendatang. Ketua Umum AAJI Hendrisman Rahim menjelaskan, dalam kurun waktu 10 tahun terakhir industri asuransi jiwa mampu tumbuh dikisaran 20 persen sampai dengan 30 persen. Pertumbuhan itu dapat terjadi meski ada regulasi baru atau adanya perubahan terhadap kondisi perekonomian. “Jadi, kondisi apa yang berubah tetap saja asuransi jiwa tumbuh. Itu yang meyakinkan kita di 2016 asuransi jiwa tumbuh 23 persen sampai dengan 29 persen,” jelasnya, dalam sebuah seminar bertajuk ‘Insurance Outlook 2016’, di Jakarta, Kamis (19/11/20115). Hendrisman meyakini adanya MEA tidak akan menurunkan pertumbuhan dari pertumbuhan premi industri asuransi jiwa. Namun, dia tak menampik perlu ada perhatian khusus terhadap Sumber Daya Manusia (SDM) dari industri asuransi jiwa. “Pengaruh MEA di industri asuransi jiwa itu yaitu di SDM. Semua SDM, seperti di agen atau aktuaris. Kalau di pasar tidak karena masyarakat kita sekarang ini sudah terdidik akan asuransi jiwa,” jelas Hendrisman. Lebih lanjut, Hendrisman yakin, dalam kurun waktu lima tahun ke depan industri asuransi jiwa mampu tumbuh di kisaran 20 persen hingga 30 persen. Hal itu akan tetap terjadi meski investasi asuransi jiwa mengalami penurunan dan ada persaingan sengit di era MEA. “Di kuartal III-2015 investasi turun tapi premi kita tetap tumbuh. Katakanlah kalau dulu tumbuh lima perak, sekarang investasi hanya 2,5 perak. Tapi, premi tumbuh lebih besar. Artinya, orang melihat unit link sekarang memahami bahwa beli unit link pas turun. Jadi, pasar sudah terdidik sekarang,” pungkasnya. SAW Kabar24.com, JAKARTA — Presiden Joko Widodo (Jokowi) kembali beraktivitas di Istana Kepresidenan Jakarta setelah kemarin melakukan kunjungan kerja di Kalimantan Timur selama satu hari. Informasi yang diperoleh dari Istana, Jumat (20/11/2015), ada dua agenda pertemuan sebelum Presiden dan Ibu Negara Iriana bertolak ke Kuala Lumpur Malaysia untuk menghadiri Konferensi Tingkat Tinggi Asean. Dua agenda itu berlangsung sebelum salat Jumat yakni menerima Dewan Pimpinan Pusat Lajnah Tanfidziyah Syarikat Islam pukul 09.30 dan menerima direksi Badan Penyelenggara Jaminan Sosial Kesehatan. Setelah salat Jumat hingga sore tidak ada agenda resmi. Presiden dan rombongan akan menuju Malaysia pukul 17.00 dari bandara Halim Perdanakusuma Jakarta dan diperkirakan tiba di Kuala Lumpur pukul 20.00 waktu setempat. Dalam sepekan ini Presiden Jokowi sedikitnya tiga kali meninggalkan Istana untuk menghadiri sejumlah pertemuan pemimpin negara. Diantaranya pada Minggu 15 November 2015 lalu menghadiri KTT G20 di Antalya Turki sekaligus melakukan pertemuan bilateral dengan PM Kanada Justin Trudeau dan Presiden China Xi Jinping. Presiden juga diundang menghadiri KTT APEC di Manila Filipina, tetapi pertemuan ini diwakili oleh Wakil Presiden Jusuf Kalla. Sementara itu, Presiden Jokowi meresmikan pabrik pupuk V PT Pupuk Kalimantan Timur di Bontang. Adapun untuk KTT Asean di Kuala Lumpur dihadiri oleh Presiden Joko Widodo didampingi oleh Ibu Negara Iriana. INILAHCOM, Jakarta – Pertemuan tiga pemimpin negara besar di Asia Timur yakni Jepang, Cina dan Korea Selatan pada 1 November 2015, bukan hal yang wajar. Akan muncul kekuatan ekonomi baru? Berdasarkan analisa Junius Fernando S Saragih, periset CSAP (Central Study Of Asia Pacific), kunjungan PM Cina Li Keqiang bersama PM Jepang Shinzo Abe ke Seoul, Korea Selatan untuk bertemu Presiden Park Geun-hye, bukan hal yang biasa-biasa saja. Bisa jadi ini langkah awal bagi munculnya kekuatan ekonomi baru dari Asia Timur Laut. Pasca pertemuan trilateral bersejarah ini, ketiga pemimpin itu menyiratkan keinginan untuk membangun kerjasama ekonomi. Bukan tidak mungkin, perkongsian ini menjelma menjadi kekuatan ekonomi baru. Peristiwa ini, tentu saja menyedot perhatian dari seluruh penjuru dunia. Cina yang di era Presiden SBY ditetapkan berjuluk Tiongkok, merupakan negara yang ekonominya paling moncer. Alhasil, Jepang maupun Korsel sangat kepincut untuk bekerjasama dengan Tiongkok. Apalagi, kondisi perekonomian Jepang yang saat ini mulai membaik, tergolong stagnant. Demikian pula Korsel, nilai ekpornya menurun sejak tahun lalu. Bahkan, diprediksi total utang yang mendera negeri Gingseng ini naik 40% dari PDB (Produk Domestik Bruto) pada 2016. Artinya, tak salah bila Jepang dan Korsel menggantungkan nasib kepada Tiongkok. Dan, bila ketiganya bergabung, bakal menjadi kekuatan ekonomi yang cukup dahsyat. “Ketiga negara ini berpeluang besar dalam menciptakan kerjasama yang setara dan saling menguntungkan. Namun, hal ini hanya bisa terjadi tatkala sentimen dan kecurigaan akibat sejarah masa lalu, khususnya yang tak mengenakkan Jepang dapat dikesampingkan,” papar Junius. Realisasi kerjasama ekonomi trilateral ini, kata Junius, peluangnya sangat besar. Lantaran, perkembangan ekonomi dunia memang sedang mengarah ke Asia Pasifik. Arus modal menuju Asia Pasifik, memerlukan respon kebijakan yang terbaik. Agar negara-negara di Asia tidak sekedar menjadi pasar, melainkan mampu menjadi pemain utama. Nah, untuk menjadi pemain utama tentu saja diperlukan pembatasan, intervensi serta peningkatan kesetaraan dalam kebijakan-kebijakan kerjasama ekonomi dan perdagangan. Yang harus diperhatikan dalam membangun hubungan ekonomi global adalah kesetaraan yang saling menguntungkan, lebih mungkin terjadi dengan membentuk struktur kemitraan baru. Dalam hal ini, Jepang, Korea Selatan dan Tiongkok merupakan mitra kerja yang sepadan. Di sisi lain, masih besar peluang untuk meningkatkan kerjasama perdagangan, mengingat hingga saat ini, hubungan trilateral maupun bilateral antara ketiga negara ini, belum maksimal. Pada era 70 sampai 80-an, Amerika Serikat menjadi tujuan dominan bagi ekspor Korsel yang besarnya 30%- 50% dari total ekspor negeri Gingseng itu. Namun, setelah Korsel membuka hubungan diplomatik dengan Cina pada 1992, ekspor Korsel ke Cina di buka di level 3% dari total ekspor. Dan pada 2014 berlipat menjadi 25,8%. Sebaliknya, ekspor Korsel ke Jepang terus menyusut sampai level terendah 5,7% akibat pelemahan yen dengan Abenomics, serta memanasnya hubungan Seoul dengan Tokyo. Sedangkan impor Korsel dari Jepang selama 1970-2006 berkisar antara 20% sampai 40% dari total impor Korsel. Artinya, Jepang adalah pengekspor terbesar untuk Kolsel di periode itu. Namun pada 2007, dominasi Jepang digeser Cina. Menurut data yang dilansir xinhua.net, ketergantungan perdagangan antara tiga negara masih berkisar 19,4%, masih jauh lebih rendah di banding Uni Eropa sebesar 63,8 %. Atau Amerika Utara sebesar 40,2%. Dengan pesatnya perekonomian Tiongkok, menjadi pertimbangan utama bagi Jepang dan Korea Selatan untuk meningkatkan kerja sama. Bagaimana pengaruhnya terhadap Indonesia bila kerjasama trilateral itu terwujud? Kata Juninus, pemerintah Indonesia harus mampu membawa Asean sebagai representasi negara-negara berkembang, sehingga bisa menjadi penyeimbang bagi negara-negara maju di Asia. “Jangan sampai kebutuhan Indonesia akan investasi demi merevitalisasi infrastruktur membuat Presiden Jokowi mengabaikan kawasan Asean. Presiden Jokowi juga harus menyadari akan pentingnya membangun solidaritas di Asia dengan tetap berpijak pada kawasan Asean,” papar Juninus. Asean, lanjutnya, masih diakui sebagai salah satu kekuatan ekonomi kawasan di Asia. Di mana, negara-negara anggota Asean masih menarik di mata investor dari negara maju. Termasuk tiga negara besar Asia yakni Cina, Jepang, dan Korsel. Bila di eranya, Bung Karno berani membangun kekuatan baru Asia-Afrika dengan dasar kesamaan nasib sebagai bekas negara jajahan, maka saat ini-pun semangat itu sangat mungkin digelorakan. Penjajahan dengan dalih kemitraan ekonomi yang tidak setara yang terjadi selama ini patut didengung-dengungkan sebagai wujud penyadaran agar solidaritas Asia bisa kembali terbangun. Sudah saatnya Asia menunjukkan taringnya dan memutus intervensi Barat yang sudah sangat lama mengakar. “Peran Presiden Jokowi di kawasan Asean sangat menentukan dalam membangun solidaritas Asia. Ketidaksepahaman dan perselisihan akibat sejarah masa lalu, serta konflik-koflik teritorial hanya bisa diselesaikan dengan membangun komunikasi yang lebih intensif dan setara,” paparnya. Kerjasama Asean dengan tiga negara ini yang dikenal dengan sebutan Asean+3, mau tak mau harus ditingkatkan. Harapannya, tidak berhenti sampai Asean+3 saja, melainkan harus mampu menarik simpati negara-negara Asia lainnya. Sehingga tergenapilah apa yang diramalkan oleh Bung Karno, bahwa akan terjadi pergeseran kekuatan ekonomi dari Eropa yang sakit-sakitan menuju Asia yang bagaikan gadis cantik digandrungi banyak pria. [ipe] – See more at: http://ekonomi.inilah.com/read/detail/2253481/lahirnya-kekuatan-ekonomi-baru-dari-asia#sthash.c9kF0VGU.dpuf (http://ekonomi.inilah.com/read/detail/2253481/lahirnyakekuatan-ekonomi-baru-dari-asia#sthash.c9kF0VGU.dpuf) By Ana Swanson (http://www.washingtonpost.com/people/ana-swanson) October 5 at 12:42 PM marketwatch Can you visualize how the world economy has changed over the last 35 years?Unless you’re a macroeconomist, that’s probably a pretty difficult task. But the 20-second video below will give you some quick insight. Howmuch.net, a website that helps people calculate the cost of doing home repairs, created this super-short and simple guide (http://howmuch.net/) to understanding how the world has changed over the last 35 years.(The video )below shows how the percentage of the global economy that each country is responsible for — its slice of the global economic pie — has changed, using data from the International Monetary Fund. So even when the space for a country shrinks, its economy may actually still be growing, because the entire pie is still growing.If you play the video, you can see that the U.S. economy remains pretty dominant throughout, though its size as a proportion of the global economy rises and falls. It grew in relative terms through 1985, then shrunk through 1995, then grew again through 2002, then contracted until about 2009. Overall, the U.S. economy went from 25.7 percent of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 1980 to 22.5 percent in 2014. But overall the biggest change that the graphic shows is probably the rise of Asia. In 1980, Asia accounted for about 20 percent of global economic activity, and Europe accounted for 32 percent, the site says. By 2012, those positions were reversed. Another obvious trend is the growth of Japan’s economy through the 1980s, and then its sudden shrinking as a proportion of the world economy in the ’90s after the burst of an asset bubble. In the last decade, you can clearly see the growth of India, Indonesia, South Korea, Russia and, especially, China, which grew from 2.8 percent of global GDP in 1980 to 13.4 percent in 2014. The biggest takeaway from the graphic is probably that national economies and the global economy tend to move in waves. You can see how events like rising American interest rates from 1986 to 1989, the oil price shock in 1990, and the burst of the dot-com bubble in 2001 dragged on the U.S. economy, and by extension, the world. The Great Recession, from 2007-2009, especially weighed on the U.S. and Europe, pushing some emerging economies into a bigger role.
(https://adclick.g.doubleclick.net/aclk?sa=L&ai=BMqSPzhcTVvbqM4W4vATJxqzoDpr3v0HAAAAEAEg8tuFITgAWJri8bbDAmDpgoCA5A2yARZ3d3cud2FzaGluZ3RvbnBvc3QuY29tugEJZ2ZwX2ltYWdlyAEJ2gFVaHR0cDovL3d3dy53YXNoaW5ndG9ucG9zdC5jb20 vbmV3cy93b25rYmxvZy93cC8yMDE1LzEwLzA1L3doeS1hc2lhLWlzLXRoZS1uZXctZXVyb3BlL5gCgJYBwAIC4AIA6gIgLzcwMS93cG5pLmJ1c2luZXNzL2Jsb2cvd29ua2Jsb2f4 AvLRHpAD9AiYA-ADqAMB4AQBkAYBoAYf2AcA&num=0&cid=5Gg7SKuOb4dpjJ_vjcXF8bzv&sig=AOD64_02OBVmLcWXe2tgpHaFeuR59RxRXQ&client=ca-pub3671346551221509&adurl=http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/brand-connect/wp/enterprise/china-an-economy-in-transition/) This kind of visualization is called a Voroni diagram. Howmuch.net created a similar one (http://howmuch.net/articles/one-diagram-that-will-change-the-way-you-look-at-the-us-economy) showing the world economy in 2014, with each country’s economy broken down into services, industry and agriculture. Services are the darkest portion, which agriculture is the lightest. It’s a little hard to see, but the graphic shows that the U.S., Japan, Germany and other developed economies heavily depend on services, while emerging economies like China have much more of a mix.
The site also created another graphic just for the U.S. (http://howmuch.net/articles/us-economy-summarized-in-one-diagram), with the divisions showing how much of the U.S. economy each state accounts for. One interesting thing is that the U.S. economy seems to be spread more evenly across the states than the global economy is for the world.
Ana Swanson is a reporter for Wonkblog specializing in business, economics, data visualization and China. She also works on Know More, Wonkblog’s social media channel. SINGAPORE chinadailynews – China supports the growth of ASEAN and is resolute in boosting friendly cooperation with the Southeast Asian bloc, Chinese President Xi Jinping said Saturday. In a speech at the National University of Singapore, he noted that by the end of the year the ASEAN Economic Community will be in place, which will be the first ever sub-regional economic community in Asia. China, he added, will firmly support the establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community, as well as ASEAN’s leading role in promoting regional cooperation in East Asia. Xi said that his country and its neighbors shoulder a historic responsibility to maintain Asian peace and stability. In a four-pronged proposal, he called for concerted efforts to safeguard peace and tranquillity, dovetail development strategies, expand security cooperation and cement people-to-people amity. Speaking highly of the history and development of ASEAN, Xi said that neighborhood is the starting point of China’s development initiatives such as the “Belt and Road” and vision of building a community of common destiny. Meanwhile, he welcomes neighboring countries to board China’s express train of development. Chia Yan Min (http://www.straitstimes.com/authors/chia-yan-min) 1. What can businesses expect for the rest of 2015 and the new year, 2016? Based on our recent survey, businesses are feeling more pessimistic across all key indicators, namely sales, net profits, selling price, new orders, inventory, and employment. This is the fourth consecutive quarter of decline, and shows that the global slowdown is taking its toll on domestic firms. Nonetheless for 2016, we expect Indonesia to perform better in line with the improving global economy. According to the World Economic Outlook (WEO) 2016 released by International Monetary Fund (IMF), global economy is expected to grow by 3.8%, an increase of 0.5% from 2015. Our D&B analysts forecast 6.0% growth for Indonesia next year compared to 4.7% this year. Growth will be supported by recovery in developed markets such as US, EU and Japan, which are our main export destinations. In addition, commitment from Indonesian government to boost state spending in infrastructure sector will be an important driving force. However, China’s slowdown, weakening global commodity prices, and prolonged instability of global financial markets could negatively impact Indonesia’s growth prospects. 2. How has the credit quality of Indonesian firms changed in the past year? Screen Shot 2015-10-28 at 3.46.38 PM
(http://bi-my-production.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/20151028154712/Screen-Shot-2015-10-28-at-3.46.38-PM.png) We find that the overall credit ratings of Indonesian firms have largely remained unchanged over the past year (2014 to 2015). In fact, the percentage of local firms which have had their credit ratings downgraded was significantly lower than those which were unchanged. The D&B Rating consists of two indicators – one measures the financial strength and another measures the risk condition of the company. Financial strength is an indication of how financially sound the company is while the risk indicator focuses on the management experience and any negative listings of the company. Based on our findings, we find that Indonesian firms are still financially sound. Out of every 100 firms, we noted that none of the firms have had their credit ratings downgraded over the past year (2014 to 2015). This is in line with the upgraded credit ratings, which was only 3.13% over the past year. In conclusion, we can say that most Indonesian firms have had their financial strength unchanged over the past year. On the contrary, there is considerable movement in risk conditions. However, this should be no cause for alarm as the credit ratings are evaluated based on a company’s fundamentals and merits. 3. What advice do you have for Indonesian firms to tide through the rough times? The business community is expected to begin rationalization and efficiency amid current economic conditions, such as reviewing investment expenses, and re-planning and optimizing existing ones. Firms must also continue to be creative and smart in utilizing the government economic package policies to stimulate local economy and business activity. Finally, it always helps to stay informed of your business partners and suppliers. Any failure or stress in them especially during an economic slowdown can potentially disrupt your business. Screen Shot 2015-10-28 at 6.37.01 PM
(http://bi-id-production.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/20151028101758/Screen-Shot-2015-10-28-at-6.37.01-PM.png)
KOMPAS.com – Perlambatan ekonomi masih terasa di Asia hingga kini. Selain Indonesia, dua negara tetangga yakni Thailand dan Vietnam ikut merasakan perlambatan tersebut. Catatan dari Kantar Worldpanel pada Selasa (20/10/2015) menunjukkan bahwa pada 2013 silam, keseluruhan pertumbuhan barang konsumsi di Asia menyentuh angka 10 persen. Namun demikian, terang Managing Director Kantar Wordpanel untuk Indonesia, Vietnam, dan Filipina Fabrice Carrasco, pasar barang konsumsi habis dipakai (FMCG) justru turun sekitar 4,6 persen. Penurunan terbesar ada di sektor makanan dan minuman. Padahal, di sektor ini, pembelanjaan rumah tangga di ketiga negara tersebut terbilang paling besar. Berdasarkan hasil riset Kantar Worldpanel Indonesia, pertumbuhan barang konsumsi di Indonesia tahun ini sebesar 7.4 persen. Sedangkan, pada tahun sebelumnya mencapai pertumbuhan dua digit yaitu 15,2 persen. Kurangi frekuensi Di tengah keadaan ekonomi Asia yang sedang melambat, terlihat beberapa kesamaan pada rumah tangga di Asia di dalam kebiasaan belanja mereka. Di antaranya adalah dengan mengurangi frekuensi belanja namun meningkatkan kuantitas pembelian per pembelanjaan. Dengan berkurangnya frekuensi berbelanja tiap rumah tangga, pemain FMCG dianjurkan untuk memas (http://bisniskeuangan.kompas.com/tag/emas)tikan distribusi, ketersediaan barang, dan mempertahankan penempatan yang mudah dilihat konsumen pada rak-rak dagangan. Tren lain yang terlihat, di beberapa negara Asia Tenggara yang memiliki persentase pusat perbelanjaan modern yang besar, konsumen cenderung untuk lebih tertarik dengan berbagai promosi yang ditawarkan. Di Malaysia misalnya. Di negara itu tingkat kontribusi perdagangan modern mencapai 60 persen. Kemudian, tren pemanfaatan dunia digita juga mewarnai kebiasaan berbelanja dari konsumen di dunia, dan juga Asia. Menurut data perdagangan secara elektronik (e-commerce) Kantar Worldpanel , pada 2025, pasar e-commerce untuk barang konsumsi akan akan tumbuh dobel dibandingkan dengan keadaan saat ini. Untuk beberapa negara seperti China, kontribusi pembelian FMCG melalu media dalam jaringan (daring) sekitar 15 persen. Sementara, di Korea, tipe seperti ini mencapai angka sekitar 30 persen. Berbeda halnya di Indonesia. Maraknya pembelian melalui media daring biasanya untuk produk fesyen dan juga barang elektronik. Sedangkan pembelian melalui media daring untuk pembelian produk barang konsumsi masih cenderung sangat minimal. Konsumen masih lebih memilih untuk berbelanja konvensional dengan mendatangi pusat perbelanjaan. Editor
: Josephus Primus
JAKARTA. Prefektur Aichi, Chubu Economic Federation, serta Kamar Dagang dan Industri Kota Nagoya, Jepang, bertekad membawa industri pendukung ke Indonesia, termasuk menjadikan Indonesia sebagai basis produksi di Asean. Bambang Suharto, Minister Counsellor Kedutaan Besar Indonesia untuk Jepang, mengatakan Prefektur Aichi memiliki 164 perusahaan yang telah beroperasi di Indonesia dengan salah satu yang terbesar adalah Toyota. “Asosiasi-asosiasi ini beranggotakan perusahaan multinasional. Bahkan mereka juga menawarkan pesawat Mitsubishi Regional Jet sebaga alat transportasi antarpulau di Indonesia,” ujarnya usai membawa rombongan Jepang bertemu Menteri Perindustrian, Rabu (21/10/2015). Perusahaan-perusahaan asal Jepang utamanya dari Prefektur Aichi, menurutnya, meyakini bahwa fundamental ekonomi Indonesia kuat kendati saat ini mengalami perlambatan seiring dengan pelemahan ekonomi global. Saleh Husin, Menteri Perindustrian, mengatakan sebagian besar perusahaan yang berada di Prefektur Aichi berada di sektor otomotif. Perusahaan-perusahaan tersebut menyatakan Indonesia menjadi salah satu negara tujuan utama investasi. http://industri.bisnis.com/read/20151022/43/484963/indonesia-bakal-dijadikan-basis-produksi-di-asean (http://industri.bisnis.com/read/20151022/43/484963/indonesia-bakal-dijadikan-basisproduksi-di-asean) Sumber : BISNIS.COM SINGAPORE – The economy grew 1.4 per cent in the third quarter, beating economists’ estimates by a hair’s breadth and just barely escaping a technical recesson, advance estimates out on Wednesday (Oct 14) showed. Economists had tipped a 1.2 per cent year-on-year expansion for the July to September quarter, amid a marked growth slowdown in China, hazy conditions, and turbulent stock market activity. The economy grew 0.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter, escaping a technical recession – two straight quarter-on-quarter declines in economic output – which had been widely predicted by analysts. The manufacturing sector was the biggest drag on growth, contracting 6 per cent in the third quarter over the same period a year ago. This follows a 4.9 per cent decline in the previous quarter. This was offset by growth in the services and construction sectors, though expansion in these industries also moderated. Growth in the services producing industries came in at 3 per cent year-on-year, slower than the 3.6 per cent growth in the previous quarter. The moderation in growth was largely due to a slower pace of expansion in the wholesale and retail trade, and finance and insurance sectors. The construction sector expanded by 1.6 per cent over the same period a year ago, from 2 per cent in the preceding quarter. The slowdown was mainly due to weaker private sector construction activities.
SOURCE: MINISTRY OF TRADE AND INDUSTRY JAKARTA. Ketua Dewan Komisioner Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK) Muliaman D. Hadad optimistis bankir-bankir Tanah Air telah siap dalam menghadapi era Masyarakat Ekonomi ASEAN yang bakal mulai pada 2020 untuk industri jasa keuangan. Muliaman mengatakan rasa optimistis ini muncul melihat para bankir di Indonesia telah mendapatkan sertifikat berstandar internasional dalam pengelolaan risiko. “Bankir kita bisa bekerja di mana saja karena bersertifikat internasional. Jadi, saya tidak takut dalam menghadapi MEA nanti,” ujarnya di Jakarta, Jumat (2/10/2015). Muliaman juga mengungkapkan dirinya meyakini industri perbankan Indonesia bakal kuat dalam menghadapi krisis karena dikelola oleh orang-orang yang sadar risiko. “Saya bersyukur Indonesia menjadi salah satu negara yang mewajibkan petinggi bank harus tersertifikasi. Semakin besar size bank, maka kompleksitas yang dihadapi bank semakin besar,” ujarnya. Bahkan, Muliaman melanjutkan, Bank Sentral China datang kepada OJK beberapa waktu lalu untuk belajar terkait kebijakan untuk mewajibkan bankir tersertifikasi dalam bidang pengelolaan risiko. Menurutnya, industri perbankan Tanah Air telah banyak belajar dari krisis finansial 1998/1999 sehingga muncul kewajiban bankir bersertifikat dalam pengelolaan risiko. “Sejak 2000-an sertifikasi bankir kita mulai jalan. Saat ini sudah ada ribuan bankir yang memiliki sertifikat pengelolaan risiko,” ujarnya. Adapun, bisnis perbankan disebut Muliaman merupakan bisnis yang pada dasarnya mengelola risiko. Industri perbankan dapat terkena 3 risiko, yakni risiko kredit, risiko likuiditas, serta risiko pasar. http://finansial.bisnis.com/read/20151002/90/478508/ketua-ojk-bankir-indonesia-siap-hadapi-mea (http://finansial.bisnis.com/read/20151002/90/478508/ketua-ojk-bankir-indonesia-siaphadapi-mea) Sumber : BISNIS.COM Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – International Monetary Fund (IMF) optimistis Indonesia mampu bertahan dari turbulensi ekonomi yang tengah berlangsung saat ini. Managing Director IMF Christine Lagarde mengatakanIndonesia seperti negara berkembang lainnya tengah diterpa gejolak ekonomi global “Seperti banyak negara berkembang lain, Indonesia saat ini sedang diterpa serangan lain dari gejolak keuangan global. Apa kamu merasa cemas? Tentu saja.,” ujar dalam kuliah umum di Universitas Indonesia, Selasa (1/9/2015). Menurutnya, kondisi ekonomi saat ini tak lepas dari pengaruh dinamika ekonomi global. IMF memperkirakan pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia pada tahun ini masih akan moderat, bahkan cenderung melemah dibandingkan dengan proyeksi yang dibuatnya pada Juli lalu. “Indonesia seperti banyak negara berkembang di kawasan saat ini terperangkap di sisi yang salah dari beberapa pergeseran ekonomi global,” kata Lagarde Dia menuturkan kondisi yang mempengaruhi ekonomi Indonesia, salah satunya yakni perlambatan ekonomi China, yang merupakan salah satu mitra dagang utama Indonesia. “Negara-negara berkembang, termasuk Indonesia, perlu mewaspadai potensi pengaruh dari perlambatan ekonomi dan pengetatan likuiditas China,” ucapnya. Perekonomian China diprediksi pertumbuhannya 6,3% sepanjang tahun ini dari sebelumnya diprediksi dapat mencapai 6,8%. Selain itu, ekonomi Indonesia juga dipengaruhi kenaikan harga komoditas telah mencapai puncaknya dan kecenderungannya akan terus turun. Kedua faktor ini menyiratkan bahwa permintaan eksternal terhadap barang-barang asal Indonesia masih akan melemah untuk beberapa waktu ke depan. Pengaruh lainnya berasal dari negara maju, yakni Amerika Serikat (AS) yang saat ini sedang pemulihan ekonomi AS sehingga memunculkan wacana kenaikan suku bunga acuan atau Fed Fund Rate. “Hal ini bisa menimbulkan risiko bagi negara-negara berkembang, termasuk Indonesia, dalam bentuk arus modal yang lemah, suku bunga yang lebih tinggi, dan volatilitas keuangan,” tutur Lagarde. Dalam empat tahun terakhir, lanjutbya ekonomi Indonesia telah melambat dan baru-baru ini menurun menjadi di bawah 5% yang merupakan level terendah untuk pertama kalinya sejak krisis keuangan global. “Perlambatan ini tidak permanen. Indonesia dapat beralih ke lintasan pertumbuhan yang lebih tinggi. Tapi perlu untuk memposisikan dengan tepat di tengah pergeseran ekonomi dan keuangan global,” ujarnya. Lagarde menyarankan Indonesia lebih membuka diri agar ekonomi Tanah Air melaju lebih pesat dengan menawarkan cara alternatif mendorong hilirisasi industri tanpa kebijakan protektif. “Tiga saran agar ekonomi melesat untuk berfokus pada infrastruktur, investasi, dan perdagangan,” ucapnya. Jakarta Post -Asean economic ministers have pledged to forge ahead with plans to integrate the economies of their member countries despite an increasingly tough external environment. “Despite current economic, financial and political challenges, we will be staying the course of regional economic integration,” Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamed said at the opening of the 47th Asean Economic Ministers Meeting (AEM) here this morning. The International Trade and Industry Minister said the fall in oil and commodity prices, currency concerns, and a challenging external economic environment over the past several months had to some extent influenced views about Asean’s prospects. Asean aims to announce the formation of the Asean Community at the end of this year, which will comprise three core pillars, namely the Asean Political Security Community (APSC); Asean Economic Community (AEC) and Asean Socio-Cultural Community (ASCC). On the AEC, which will create a single market and production base in the region, Mustapa said its creation will not mean that all red tape will become untangled and that all trade and investment will flow freely across borders come Jan 1 next year. “What the establishment of the AEC means is that Asean is reaching one of the key milestones on the Asean journey.” Economic ministers from Asean countries as well as the regional body’s dialogue partners are attending the three-day meeting held at the Kuala Lumpur Convention Centre. (++++) – See more at: http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2015/08/22/plans-asean-community-still-track.html#sthash.w9BPAi7N.dpuf (http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2015/08/22/plansasean-community-still-track.html#sthash.w9BPAi7N.dpuf) WATARU YOSHIDA, Nikkei staff writer SINGAPORE — Japanese living here are quickly made aware that their home country and Southeast Asia do not always react to global news or events the same way. Issues that grab headlines in Japan are often ignored here. The ASEAN Economic Community, or AEC, set to launch at the end of this year, is a case in point. In a survey released in 2013 by the Asian Development Bank, a whopping 55% of local companies in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations said they were not aware of the economic integration project, outnumbering the 44% that knew of the initiative. Of course, awareness must have gone up since then. Yet even now local business chiefs rarely express high hopes for the AEC. It is an ambitious project that aims to integrate the entire ASEAN market. Tariff elimination, which is key to facilitating flows of goods, is largely complete ahead of the deadline. But discussions on free movements of people, money and services have barely made progress. Wide economic disparities within the bloc are making the 10 member nations hesitant to open up their markets. Local media’s reluctance to report on the AEC reflects this sentiment. On the other hand, 80% of foreign companies, including Japanese businesses, operating in the region view ASEAN as a single market, according to a U.S.-affiliated law firm. Japanese companies entering Southeast Asia often cite business opportunities to be opened up by the AEC. Thus the wide perception gap is a concern. ASEAN could become a truly integrated market in the future. For a union of small nations to maintain economic competitiveness, it must set aside parochial interests and move toward unity. But “that future” could be five years or 10 years from now. Tapping into rising demand in Southeast Asia is a key part of Japan Inc.’s growth strategy. Yet companies must see beyond the soaring rhetoric and make realistic assessments of a project that is still very much in its initial stages. bumi2009fans I Am Investor
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