AS2105 Astronomi & Lingkungan Ferry M. Simatupang Prodi Astronomi – Fakultas MIPA Institut Teknologi Bandung
Last Updated: 4 October 2012
Bab 3 Antariksa 2
1. Sampah Antariksa 2. Hukum Antariksa 3. Bahaya Radiasi Antariksa 4. Perjalanan Antariksa
Seperti tanah, laut dan udara, ruang angkasa menjadi bagian terintegrasi bagi kehidupan manusia yang lebih bermakna 3
3.1. Sampah Antariksa 4
Outline 5
1. Sampah Antariksa Alami 2. Sampah Antariksa Artifisial 1.
Mitigasi Sampah Antariksa
Istilah 6
Space debris space “junk” Bahasa Indonesia: Sampah Antariksa
Benda alami Buatan manusia
Definisi 7
Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC): ”Space debris are all man made objects including fragments and elements thereof, in Earth orbit or reentering the atmosphere, that are non functional” (IADC Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines. issue 1, rev. 1., 2002)
Definisi 8
Dalam kuliah ini, definisi yang digunakan adalah deskripsi objek yang diberikan oleh IADC, ditambah objek-objek natural sisa pembentukan tata surya yang berada di sekitar orbit Bumi
3.1.1. Sampah Antariksa Alami 9
Pembentukan Batuan 10
Benda Alami 11
1. Asteroid 2. Komet 3. Meteoroid
Asteroid 12
Benda kecil dalam tata surya (bongkahan batuan
atau logam, atau campuran keduanya) yang tidak memiliki (atau berpotensi memiliki) ekor seperti komet Terutama berada diantara orbit Mars dan Jupiter Ukuran kurang dari 1000 km (rata-rata 500 m). Densitas: 3.000-5.000 kg/m³ Kecepatan mencapai 25 km/s Sulit dideteksi.
Asteroid 13
Asteroid 14
Asteroid Eros
(Wahana NEAR) Asteroid Ida dan satelitnya, Dactyl Kawah besar di Vesta (warna biru) Citra radar asteroid Galevka Kawah besar pada Eros
Komet 15
Batuan berasal dari bagian luar sistem tata
surya, yaitu awan Oort atau Sabuk Kuiper pada jarak 100.000 SA (satuan astronomi; 1 SA ~150 juta kilometer) Komet menghasilkan ekor sehingga mudah dilihat Kecepatan mencapai 72 km/s Densitas ~1.000 kg/m³
Komet Ekor ion
16
Ekor debu Komet Mrkos, 1957
Komet
Matahari Ekor komet selalu menjauhi arah matahari dan terbentuk akibat interaksi dengan angin matahari
Lontaran Massa Matahari
Sabuk Utama Asteroid, Sabuk Kuiper & Awan Oort 17
Meteoroid 18
Meteoroid, Meteor,
Meteorit Hujan meteor NEO (Near Earth Object): obyek yang memiliki perihelion kurang dari 1,3 AU Sampah antariksa alami setara dengan 10.000 ton per hari
Puncak hujan meteor Perseid, 11-12 Agustus 2009. Di lokasi ideal, bisa melihat 100-200 meteor per jam.
Meteor Dan Meteorit 19
Meteorit 20
Orgueil CI carbonaceous chondrite
Resiko Bagi Bumi 21
Jumlah objek dekat Bumi (NEO,
Near Earth Object), yaitu dalam jarak 100× jarak Bumi-Bulan (400.000 km): • • •
Jumlah: 9202 buah (24 Sept 2012) Asteroid ukuran > 1 km: 852 buah (24 Sept 2012) Ukuran > 150 m dan berada dalam jarak 0,05 AU Potentially Hazardous Asteroid (PHA) atau kategori “berbahaya bagi Bumi”: 1331 buah (24 Sept 2012)
(Sumber: neo.jpl.nasa.gov)
Penemuan Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) 22
Penemuan Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) 23
Penemuan Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) 24
Penemuan Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) 25
Asteroid 1950DA 26
• Close approach 7.8 juta km dari Bumi pada 3-7 Maret 2001 • Mendekat lagi pada 16 Maret 2880
27
28
Close Approach Asteroid 2005 YU55 29
Close Approach: 8 Nov 2011 23:28 UT (324.9 km / 0.8453 LD)
This radar image of asteroid 2005 YU55 was obtained on Nov. 7, 2011, at 11:45 a.m. PST (2:45 p.m. EST/1945 UTC), when the space rock was at 3.6 lunar distances, which is about 860,000 miles, or 1.38 million kilometers, from Earth. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech
Deep Impact Mission 30
Misi kamikaze menabrak komet
Tempel 1 untuk mengetahui secara in situ fisik komet. Peluncuran 12 Januari 2005 dan menabrak komet 4 Juli 2005 Perjalanan wahana antariksa selama 174 hari menempuh jarak 429 juta km dengan kecepatan 28,6 km/s atau 103.000 km/jam
Deep Impact Mission 31
Deep Impact Mission 32
Berat impactor 350
kg tembaga menghasilkan energi sebesar 4,7 ton TNT atau dapat menghasilkan kawah selebar 100 m dan sedalam 30 m
Tumbukan Dengan Komet Tempel 1 33
Deep Impact Mission 34
Probabilitas Tumbukan 35 Courtillot (1999)
300 km
Chicxulub Impact Crater, Meksiko
36
Tabrakan Meteoroid 37
Batuan meteoroid yang
menabrak bumi dapat menghasilkan kawah. Frekuensi tabrakan ~500 meteoroid per tahun. Ukuran dapat sebesar bola basket atau lebih besar. Hanya sebagian kecil yang tersisa sehingga dapat dipelajari oleh ilmuwan Sangat jarang yang menimbulkan kawah besar
Kawah Barringer, Arizona (AS) Posisi: 35° 1′ 38″ N 111° 1′ 21″ W Diameter: 1,186 km Usia: 50.000 tahun Ditemukan tahun 1891. Diduga hasil tabrakan dengan objek logam nikel-besi seukuran ~50m
Kawah Barringer (Arizona, AS) 38
Dampak Tabrakan Benda Langit 39
Dampak bergantung ukuran dan laju obyek langit Obyek ukuran 20 m dapat menghancurkan sebuah kota Efek gelombang kejut dan gelombang panas menghancurkan
skala lebih luas Obyek diameter 75 m setara dengan 1000 bom atom Hiroshima Obyek diameter 2000 m akan menyebabkan ledakan nuklir dan musim dingin hebat yang berlangsung beberapa tahun Jika menimpa negara industri akan terjadi efek domino yang destruktif. Jika jatuh di laut akan terjadi tsunami dengan ketinggian 1 km Tahun 1908 (Tunguska event): meteorit 60 m meledak di atas Tunguska, Siberia menghancurkan daerah seluas kota New York
Tunguska Event, 1908 40
Tunguska Event, 1908 41
Photograph from the Soviet Academy of Science 1927 expedition led by Leonid Kulik
Tunguska Event, 1908 42
Estimasi ledakan energi: 5-30 megaton TNT
(kemungkinan besar 10-15 megaton TNT) Setara dengan 1000 kali ledakan bom atom di Hiroshima Menumbangkan 80 juta pohon di hutan seluas 2150 km persegi Gelombang kejut dari ledakan ekivalen dengan gempa berkekuatan 5 skala Richter
3.1.2. Sampah Antariksa Artifisial 43
Sejarah 44
Eksplorasi ruang angkasa dimulai 4 Oktober
1957 dengan peluncuran satelit Sputnik 1 oleh Rusia. Sejak itu manusia mencapai tahap demi tahap eksplorasi, aplikasi dan pengembangan sains dan teknologi antariksa.
Sejarah 45
1961: Kejadian break-up di orbit yang
pertama adalah ledakan upper-stage dari roket Thor-Ablestar yang digunakan untuk meletakkan satelit US Transit-4A di orbit. Mendistribusikan
massa 625 kg Setidaknya ada 298 fragmen yang bisa ditelusur orbitnya Hampir 200 fragmen masih berada di orbit sampai 40 tahun setelah kejadian
Sejarah 46
Agustus 1964: satelit geostasioner pertama diletak di
orbit, Syncom-3 Juni 1978: 14 tahun setelah Syncom-3, kejadian pertama ledakan wahana antariksa di GEO (Geostationary Earth Orbit) Lubos Perek (1979) mempresentasikan makalah berjudul “Outer Space Activities versus Outer Space”, yang pertama kali merekomendasikan penanggulangan mitigasi space debris, termasuk mengubah orbit wahana GEO ke orbit pembuangan diakhir masa operasionalnya.
Sejarah 47
John Gabbard mengungkap bahwa ledakan dari
sembilan second stage dari roket Delta antara Mei 1975 – Januari 1981 adalah kontributor utama populasi space debris saat itu, sekitar 27% dari katalog LEO (Low Earth Orbit) tahun 1981.
Semenjak diketahui sebagai kontributor utama space debris, break-up dari second stage roket Delta tidak dilakukan lagi Ini bisa dianggap sebagai implementasi penanggulangan space debris yang efektif yang pertama kali
Sejarah 48
Juli 1996: kecelakaan tubrukan dua objek
katalog pertama kali tercatat. Satelit Cerise rusak karena ditabrak pecahan orbital stage roket Ariane yang meledak pada November 1986
Sejarah 49
Sebagian besar event fragmentasi historis
terjadi pada orbit hampir-lingkaran, dan sekitar 80% dari keseluruhan event yang diketahui, terjadi di LEO Sekarang lebih dari 5000 peluncuran wahana antariksa. Sampai tahun 2010, terdapat 2000 satelit berada di orbit bumi. Typical impact velocities: • Debris: 10 km/s • Meteoroids: 20 km/s
Aplikasi Teknologi Antariksa 50
Komunikasi (telepon seluler, pesawat, dll.) Navigasi, posisi dan waktu oleh GPS Dunia perbankan, transaksi finansial, kartu kredit, dll. Mitigasi bencana (tsunami, gunung berapi, banjir, topan,
dll.) Prediksi cuaca Dunia kedokteran, pendidikan Dunia militer Pariwisata, dll.
Kesempatan 51
Penerbangan antariksa
pribadi untuk tourisme, Virgin Galactic, Bigelow Aerospace, EADS Astrium Riset di ruang angkasa
Prediksi cuaca, penginderaan jarak jauh Penemuan fisis alam semesta
Nilai Ekonomi 52
Space transporation
$5.4 billion in commercial launch revenues in 2000, including $1.5 billion in U.S. sales
Satellite Communications:
the dominant sector; revenues exceeding $67.5 billion in 2000; growth near 17% annually
Remote Sensing (raw satellite imagery)
total market $173 million in 2000, of which 29% ($50 million) represented U.S. sales
Space tourism
$20 million/person for one week $200.000/seat for 1 days
Resiko 53
Ruang angkasa adalah wilayah yang ekstrim dan tidak mentolerir kesalahan Satelit yang mengorbit akan berada pada orbitnya (hukum Newton) Kecepatan orbit satelit sangat tinggi (~7 km/s di orbit rendah) Cuaca antariksa (sinar-X, partikel energi tinggi) dapat mengganggu satelit atau bahkan “merontokkannya” Bahaya radiasi antariksa
Tantangan Keamanan Antariksa 54
Semakin padatnya satelit pada jalur orbit
yang penting Bertambahnya jumlah sampah antariksa pada orbit tertentu Penggunaan senjata antariksa (sistem persenjataan Star Wars) Dampak cuaca antariksa
Sampah Antariksa Artifisial 55
Obyek tidak berfungsi buatan manusia di
antariksa Ukuran besar: orde meter berasal dari satelit mati Ukuran kecil: mikro-milli-cm berasal dari ledakan atau tabrakan satelit/komponen satelit
Sampah Antariksa Artifisial 56
Ketinggian satelit dan ukuran sampah antariksa Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Ketinggian
2.000 km / sampah ukuran 20 cm
Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO) Ketinggian
36.000 km / ukuran 0,1 ~ 1 m
Geostationary Transfer Orbits (GTOs) Ketinggian
2.000 ~ 36.000 km / ukuran > 1m
High Earth Orbit
Most Commercial Satellites reside in GEO orbit
Medium Earth Orbit
Low Earth Orbit
200 – 2,000 km
Geosynchronous Orbit United States Space Command, tracks more than 8,500 objects larger than 10cm in
2000 km & higher
LEO
24,972 Satellites
57
Feb 2000 Situation Report Goddard Space Station
Sampah Antariksa Di LEO 58
Sampah antariksa terkonsentrasi di LEO
Sampah Antariksa Di GEO 59
Populasi di utara equator lebih besar berasal dari objek-objek Rusia dengan highinclination dan high eccentricity
Pertumbuhan Populasi Satelit 60
Visualisasi Database Satelit Dengan Google Earth 61
Sampah Antariksa Artifisial Di Masa Depan(?) 62
Sampah Antariksa Artifisial Di Masa Depan(?) 63
Lintasan Satelit Sangat Padat 64
Aktivitas antariksa
menyebabkan lintasan satelit dalam orbit yang berprospek ekonomi tinggi semakin padat, misalkan: Orbit
Polar utk satelit monitor bumi Orbit Geosinkron utk satelit komunikasi
“..lebih dari 100,000 sampah cukup besar untuk membuat satelit mati”
Dr. William Ailor
Overview 65
Objek buatan manusia
Sampah dari satelit yang meledak atau rocket stages
Satelit mati
Sampah dari operasi peluncuran normal
Sarung tangan astronaut
~ 700 satelit aktif
> 12.000 pecahan sampah yang terlacak
> 100.000 pecahan ukuran cukup besar untuk merusak satelit (Sumber: William Ailor, Ph.D., “Overview: Space Debris and Reentry Hazards”)
Evolusi Jumlah Dan Sumber Sampah Antariksa Artifisial 66
Evolusi Jumlah Dan Sumber Sampah Antariksa Artifisial 67
Laju Peluncuran Dan Operatornya 68
Sampah Ukuran Kecil 69
Average impact velocity
~20,000 miles/hour at LEO High relative velocities means small particles can do much damage 795 window craters over 24 Shuttle missions (3.56 m2 total area)
4-mm-diameter crater on windshield of Space Shuttle Orbiter made by 0.2 mm fleck of white paint; relative velocity at impact: 3-6 km/sec (NASA Photo)
Akibat Tubrukan Sampah Ukuran Kecil 70
View of an orbital debris hole made in the panel of the Solar Max experiment.
‘Abu’ Sisa dari Solid Rocket Motor (SRM) 71
Solid rocket motor (SRM) slag. Aluminum oxide slag is a byproduct of SRMs. Orbital SRMs used to boost satellites into higher orbits are potentially a significant source of centimeter sized orbital debris. This piece was recovered from a test firing of a Shuttle solid rocket booster.
Simulasi Tumbukan Sampah Antariksa 72
Tes simulasi di lab: tumbukan bola aluminum kecil yang bergerak dengan kecepatan 6,8 km/s menghantam balok aluminum setebal 18 cm. Beginilah yang terjadi jika potongan kecil sampah antariksa menghantam wahana antariksa.
Delta II Recovered Debris 73
January 22, 1997
NASA Photo
World Staff Photo by Brandi Stafford
NASA Photo NASA Photo
NASA Photo
NASA Photo
Delta II Recovered Debris 74
Lottie Williams dari Tulsa (Oklahoma)
melaporkan bahwa ia dihantam di bagian bahu oleh sampah antariksa saat sedang berjalan kaki. Sampah antariksa itu kemudian dikonfirmasi sebagai bagian dari tanki bahan bakar dari roket Delta II Bagian sampah antariksa lainnya dari Delta second stage reentry ditemukan sejauh beberapa ratus mil di Texas
Credit: Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies (Tulsa World)
‘Pendaratan’ Di Timur Tengah 75
On 21 January 2001, a Delta II third stage, known as a PAM-D (Payload Assist Module - Delta), reentered the atmosphere over the Middle East. The titanium motor casing of the PAM-D, weighing about 70 kg, landed in Saudi Arabia about 240 km from the capital of Riyadh.
South Africa Reentry, April 27, 2000 76
Launched March 1996 Delta second stage used
for GPS Reentered April 27, 2000 Debris recovered outside of Cape Town, South Africa
(Sumber: William Ailor, Ph.D., “Overview: Space Debris and Reentry Hazards”)
Remnants of a Delta II Rocket found near Cape Town 77
Another Delta II second stage reentered on 27 April 2000 over South Africa. In this incident, three objects were recovered along a path nearly 100 km long: the main stainless steel propellant tank, a titanium pressurant tank, and a portion of the main engine nozzle assembly, weighed > 300 kg.
Debris recovered in Bangkok, 2005
NASA Photos
(Sumber: William Ailor, Ph.D.,78 “Overview: Space Debris and Reentry Hazards”)
Reentry Events 79
Argentina (2004)
Delta Stage 3 debris (147 pounds) Debris returned to Aerospace
NASA Photo
Brazil (2004)
Debris from NASA launch
Saudi Arabia (2001)
Delta 3rd Stage debris (140 pounds) On display at Aerospace (Sumber: William Ailor, Ph.D., “Overview: Space Debris and Reentry Hazards”)
Reentry Events 80 Cosmos 954 (1978)
Russian spacecraft
Spread radioactive debris in Canada
Skylab (1979)
155,000 lbs
Minimal control over entry point
Challenger accident (1986)
NASA
Mars (1996)
Russian spacecraft
Debris in Chile
Mir (2001)
280,000 lbs
Columbia accident (2003) NASA
(Sumber: William Ailor, Ph.D., “Overview: Space Debris and Reentry Hazards”)
Jumlah Sampah Antariksa 81
Simulasi 82
Simulasi ledakan di LEO
Simulasi 83
Pemodelan evolusi terhadap waktu awan fragmentasi debris yang dihasilkan dari ledakan upper stage dari roket Ariane-1 yang terjadi pada tanggal 13 Nov 1986
Evolusi Sampah Antariksa 84
Cloud of debris of size greater than 10 cm after 15 minutes
Debris cloud after 10 days
Problema? 85
• saat jatuh ke permukaan • tabrakan di antariksa
Kerusakan Pada Pesawat Ulang Alik 86
Kerusakan Pada Pesawat Ulang Alik 87
Katalog US-STRATCOM 88
US Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM),
unit militer yang telah membuat katalog sedikitnya 9.000 obyek sampah ukuran besar Russia
juga mempunyai katalog serupa
Katalog USSTRATCOM, meskipun tidak
lengkap, tetap digunakan dalam riset sampah antariksa.
Teleskop Radio 89
Radar digunakan untuk survei sampai
ketinggian LEO Deteksi
cm
dan pantau obyek lebih besar dari 10-20
Obyek di ketinggian GEO dideteksi telekop
optik diameter 1 m Ukuran
obyek 1m
NASA: teleskop radio 36-m di Haystack, MA ESA:
teleskop radio 34-m di Jerman
Teleskop Radio 90
Haystack Long-Range Imaging Radar (LRIR) dan Haystack Auxiliary Radar (HAX) di Tyngsboro, dekat Boston (Sumber: NASA).
Observasi Secara Optik 91
LEO measurements form the NASA Liquid Mirror
Telescope (LMT) GEO survey result from the NASA CCD Debris Telescope (CDT) The NASA funded Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST) The TAROT telescope supported by the French space agency CNES GEO and GTO observations from the ESA 1-m telescope
Observasi Secara Optik 92
Jumlah Obyek Di Orbit 93
(Sumber: William Ailor, Ph.D., “Overview: Space Debris and Reentry Hazards”)
Korelasi Jumlah Peluncuran Dan Sampah 95
Distribusi Sampah Dan Ketinggian 96
(Sumber: William Ailor, Ph.D., “Overview: Space Debris and Reentry Hazards”)
Perlindungan Lingkungan Antariksa 97
Antariksa, secara teknis, sulit dibersihkan dari
sampah-sampah Upaya mengurangi sampah Obyek
ukuran besar dilontarkan keluar Obyek ukuran kecil, diganggu orbitnya sehingga masuk ke atmosfer dan terbakar habis Membentuk badan dunia di bawah PBB, yaitu United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UNCOPUOS)
Perlindungan Lingkungan Antariksa 98
Dampak Terhadap Teleskop Hubble Terhadap Sampah Tidak Terlacak 99
~7 years of exposure
NASA
(Sumber: William Ailor, Ph.D., “Overview: Space Debris and Reentry Hazards”)
History of Large Object Interference 100
Three confirmed accidental collisions
Non-operational Russian Cosmos navigational satellite collided with debris from a sister Cosmos satellite (December 1991) French satellite CERISE damaged by fragment from Ariane rocket body (1996) Final stage of a US Thor Burner 2A rocket, launched in 1974, collided with a fragment from the upper stage of a Chinese Long March 4 which exploded in March 2002 (January 2005)
Near misses with Space Shuttle, Mir, ISS
NASA moved Space Shuttle at least 8 times, ISS 3 times to avoid close approaches
Commercial operators move GEO satellites (Sumber: William Ailor, Ph.D., “Overview: Space Debris and Reentry Hazards”)
Space Weapons — The Ultimate Concern 101
Development and use of space weapons, including anti-satellite devices, threaten current and future space activities
What Is A Space Weapon? 102
“A space weapon is an “object“ that is designed, tested or used to destroy or disrupt other objects in space or on Earth“
Potential Space Weapons 103
Space-to-Space (S2S) Systems
Maneuvrable „Kill Vehicle“ MicroSats and co-orbital ASATs Laser and Microwaves
Space-to-Earth (S2E) Systems
Metal Rods and Maneuvrable Reentry vehicles
Earth-to-Space (E2S) Systems
BMD- Kill Vehicle and HE-Laser Nuclearexplosion at high altitude Transatmospheric air/space planes
Old Space ‘Weapons’ US and USSR 104
U.S.: Air Launched Miniature Vehicle
(ALMV)
Source: www.fas.org/spp/military/program/asat/almv.htm
Old Space ‘Weapons’ US and USSR 105
USSR: Hunting Satellites (“Killer Sat.”–
Istrebitelny Sputnik [IS])
Source: www.russianspaceweb.com/is.html
Trajectory of the ASAT Interception
First stage trajectory
G. Forden http://web.mit.edu/stgs 106
Chinese ASAT Test 107
The Chinese FY-IC SAT (880 kg) was hit by a kill vehicle at
856 km with v=7.42 km/s This was the first ASAT test in 20+ years The head on collision is comparable to the US MD Kill vehicle After 2 weeks the US SSN observed ~500 fragments >10 cm; So far ~2500 pieces have been tracked, but there are ~2000 larger pieces, which might stay several decades in space This is an increase of space debris in 850 km alt. of 28% The test has increased the chances of an equatorial SAT being hit by 50 % A “chain reaction “ at 900 km might be possible in the future
Chinese ASAT Test 108
Chinese ASAT test 11
January 2007 958
kg target in 853 km circular orbit, 98.7° inclination Generated 1500 fragments, 200km ≤ H ≤ 4,800km
Photo courtesy Western Australian Space Photographer Ray Palmer
(Sumber: William Ailor, Ph.D., “Overview: Space Debris and Reentry Hazards”)
China Anti-Satellite Debris Paths 109
Known orbit planes of Fengyun1C debris one month after its 2007 disintegration by a Chinese anti-satellite (ASAT) interceptor. The white orbit represents the International Space Station. Credit: NASA Orbital Debris Program Office
Working Satellites (Green) and Chinese Asat Debris Cloud (Red) 110
Russian Accident 111
Russian rocket stage
explosion 19 February 2007 853
km × 14712 km orbit, 51.5° inclination Similar number of fragments as Chinese ASAT test
Courtesy Heiner Klinkrad, ESA
(Sumber: William Ailor, Ph.D., “Overview: Space Debris and Reentry Hazards”)
U.S. A-Sat Test 112
National Reconnaissance Organization (NRO)
satellite: USA-193 (NROL-21) – failed to reach its proper orbit and was falling out of orbit U.S. used modified Raytheon-built RIM-161
Standard Missile used for antiballistic missile tests to destroy it “President Bush ordered the action to prevent any
possible contamination from the hazardous rocket fuel on board”, NYTimes, Feb 15, 2008
A-Sat Test—Debris Issues 113
USA-193 strike took place Feb. 22 when satellite was about 210
km high; models estimate that: 50% of debris washed out immediately (estimated) 99% within 1 week Fits UN guidelines on space debris (Dec. 2007) Nevertheless, the test provided considerable technical information that will be of enormous interest to the U.S. ballistic missile engineers Negative reaction from many U.S. analysts and some countries Concern that this is a covert A-Sat test Upset space stability and the long term space sustainability
USA-193 Debris Cloud 114
To be compliant with the COPUOS (United Nations Committee
on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space) STSC and IADC space debris mitigation guidelines and to minimize any effect on the near-Earth space environment, the kinetic engagement of USA193 would occur shortly before a natural reentry and at an altitude below 250 km. More than 50% of the debris created will not be orbital and will enter the Earth’s atmosphere within 45 minutes of the event. Of the debris left in temporary orbits about the Earth, more than 99% will fall out of orbit within one week of the event.
Mitigasi Sampah Antariksa 115
Sources of Debris & Mitigation 116 Source: On-orbit explosions
Mitigation:
Deplete and/or vent propellants and pressurants at end of life
Open-circuit batteries
Source: Debris created during injection, normal operations
Mitigation:
De-orbit stages
Tether releasable parts (lens covers, etc.)
Capture debris from explosive bolts and mechanisms
Avoid environmental degradation of coatings and materials
Source: Collisions
Move hardware out of operational regions
Reenter, move to disposal orbit
Maneuver to avoid collisions (Sumber: William Ailor, Ph.D., “Overview: Space Debris and Reentry Hazards”)
Avoiding Collisions 117
Position “known” at time of
measurement, degrades until next measurement Models estimate probability of impact (or interference) “Action” (new measurement or satellite maneuver) taken if probability exceeds threshold Models must also look into the future to show proposed action is safe
Covariance ellipsoids indicate possible locations of orbiting object
(Sumber: William Ailor, Ph.D., “Overview: Space Debris and Reentry Hazards”)
Requirements and Standards 118
Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordinating Committee
(IADC) guidelines NASA, DoD, FCC have adopted policies on debris mitigation ISO developing international standards for mission and hardware design to minimize creation of orbital debris End-of-mission disposal of GEO satellites Prediction of reentry hazards Estimating residual propellant
(Sumber: William Ailor, Ph.D., “Overview: Space Debris and Reentry Hazards”)
Apa Yang Terjadi Ketika Sampah Antariksa Jatuh Ke Bumi? 119
DILBERT© by Scott Adams; reprinted by permission of United Feature Syndicate, Inc.
UN COPUOS Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines 120
Guideline 1: Limit debris released during normal operations Space systems should be designed not to release debris during normal operations. If this is not feasible, the effect of any release of debris on the outer space environment should be minimized. 2. Guideline 2: Minimize the potential for break-ups during operational phases Spacecraft and launch vehicle orbital stages should be designed to avoid failure modes which may lead to accidental break-ups. In cases where a condition leading to such a failure is detected, disposal and passivation measures should be planned and executed to avoid break-ups. 1.
UN COPUOS Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines 121
3.
4.
Guideline 3: Limit the probability of accidental collision in orbit In developing the design and mission profile of spacecraft and launch vehicle stages, the probability of accidental collision with known objects during the system’s launch phase and orbital lifetime should be estimated and limited. If available orbital data indicate a potential collision, adjustment of the launch time or an on-orbit avoidance manoeuvre should be considered. Guideline 4: Avoid intentional destruction and other harmful activities Recognizing that an increased risk of collision could pose a threat to space operations, the intentional destruction of any on-orbit spacecraft and launch vehicle orbital stages or other harmful activities that generate long-lived debris should be avoided. When intentional break-ups are necessary, they should be conducted at sufficiently low altitudes to limit the orbital lifetime of resulting fragments.
UN COPUOS Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines 122
5.
6.
Guideline 5: Minimize potential for post-mission break-ups resulting from stored energy In order to limit the risk to other spacecraft and launch vehicle orbital stages from accidental break-ups, all on-board sources of stored energy should be depleted or made safe when they are no longer required for mission operations or post-mission disposal. Guideline 6: Limit the long-term presence of spacecraft and launch vehicle orbital stages in the low-Earth orbit (LEO) region after the end of their mission Spacecraft and launch vehicle orbital stages that have terminated their operational phases in orbits that pass through the LEO region should be removed from orbit in a controlled fashion. If this is not possible, they should be disposed of in orbits that avoid their long-term presence in the LEO region.
UN COPUOS Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines 123
7. Guideline 7: Limit the long-term
interference of spacecraft and launch vehicle orbital stages with the geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) region after the end of their mission
Spacecraft
and launch vehicle orbital stages that have terminated their operational phases in orbits that pass through the GEO region should be left in orbits that avoid their long-term interference with the GEO region.
UN COPUOS Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines 124
Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) 125
Principles developed by the InterAgency (Space) Debris Coordinating Committee (IADC), a non-governmental group including representatives from all space-faring nations control of debris released during normal operations control of debris generated by accidental explosions control of debris generated by intentional breakups limiting debris generated by on-orbit collisions post-mission disposal of space structures limiting risk from debris surviving reentry control of collision hazards of tether systems
(Sumber: David Finkleman, “Space Standards, Rules, Innovation, and Inhibition”)
Reentry Breakup Process 126
Aerodynamic heating and loads on a reentering satellite will gradually break the hardware apart
Some materials will survive reentry
Steel, glass, titanium, sheltered parts
Some melted or shredded away
Aluminum, Mylar sheets
Once separated from the parent body, debris follows new trajectory
Debris pieces impact within a “footprint” on the ground
Initial Breakup / Shedding
Catastrophic breakup Secondary Breakup
Velocity
Low mass-to-drag debris
Main debris field (footprint)
(Sumber: William Ailor, Ph.D., “Overview: Space Debris and Reentry Hazards”)
Reentry of Compton Gamma Ray Observatory 127
NASA satellite 12,000 kg Launched in 1991 Reentered into the
Pacific Ocean on June 4, 2000
(Sumber: William Ailor, Ph.D., “Overview: Space Debris and Reentry Hazards”)
Reentry Disposal 128
Reentry will “burn-up” reentering hardware--but not completely Must be done carefully--may pose hazard to people and property
on the ground Have been several examples Cosmos 954 Skylab Russian Mars 96 Delta 2s (Texas and South Africa) Disposal of Mir space station Recent Shuttle Columbia disaster Can include reentry disposal in design of hardware and mission
(Sumber: William Ailor, Ph.D., “Overview: Space Debris and Reentry Hazards”)
Aerospace Activities 129
Examine recovered debris Publish best estimates for reentry events Improve reentry hazard prediction models Incorporate
results of event, material analyses
Conduct reentry hazard analyses for space
hardware Developing sensor to collect in situ reentry data (Sumber: William Ailor, Ph.D., “Overview: Space Debris and Reentry Hazards”)
Reentry Breakup Recorder 130 2-kg, 12-inch diameter GPS, Temperature sensors,
Accelerometers, data recorder, batteries, Iridium modem
Ride of opportunity to space; no
services required from host or ground systems
Probe records data during reentry;
phones home data via Iridium prior to impact
Probe not recovered Technology may enable other new
systems (launch hardware impact locator, Black Box for reentry vehicles)
(Sumber: William Ailor, Ph.D., “Overview: Space Debris and Reentry Hazards”)
Reentry Breakup Recorder (REBR) 131 780 km Host spacecraft
On-orbit
Reentry begins@ 120 km (t=0 min)
Passive wake-up REBR
Orbit decay
Iridium
REBR Host break-up and REBR release (t+50 min) Communications blackout Event
Total time for reentry Blackout duration Time from breakup to impact
Max Heating (t+52)
Minutes ~65 – 85 ~4 ~7 – 30
Acquire GPS signal and Transmit to Iridium (t+55 min to impact)
(Sumber: William Ailor, Ph.D., “Overview: Space Debris and Reentry Hazards”)
Reentry Predictions 132
Predictions of
upcoming reentry events
Predictions posted for
events in next 5 days Worldwide interest and input
(Sumber: William Ailor, Ph.D., “Overview: Space Debris and Reentry Hazards”)
Space Junk Laser 133
The Way Forward 134
Limiting creation of new debris UN
COPUOS resolution to limit debris adopted by General Assembly, October 2007 But
voluntary only
Additional
needed
controls on creation of debris
Mandatory
within States?
Research needed on methods to clean up
existing debris
The Way Forward 135
Develop an international cooperative approach
to “Space Situational Awareness”, the ability to know where working spacecraft and major debris are at all times Currently,
only the United States has a welldeveloped SSA capability; many of those data are classified Steps by Europe, Russia, and China to develop SSA systems may stimulate U.S. interest in a cooperative approach
The Way Forward 136
Develop a Space Traffic Management (STM)
system—to prevent satellite-satellite and satellite-debris collisions STM should be established and operated according to internationally-agreed upon policies, regulations, and rules Could
be a well-defined code of conduct One possible model as a starting point is the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)
Traffic 137
Potential Policy Issues 138
Legitimacy of STM organizational body to
implement and enforce rules Limitations on freedom of action by all actors Reluctance to share data because of privacy and competitive concerns Arenas for arbitration and legal recourse
“Space” Insurance 139
Two main types:
launch insurance satellite in orbit insurance
Covering total loss, constructive total loss or partial loss of the
insured satellite (including loss of operational capability) and sometimes some resulting loss of revenues On an “all risks” basis (including failure due to inherent defect) Sum insured = agreed value Significant premium Period of coverage: limited
Implications to Business 140
In 2002, $86.2 billion industry More and more private venture satellites are
launched each year GPS, Storm monitoring etc No one is policing the traffic…investments are at risk Liabilities for you’re the debris created from an impact Spin off effect, 1 impact leads to several more damage
Matters of Specific relevance from the insurance point of view 141
Defining space objects or space debris Time trigger question at its worst since space debris
might cause damage in centuries to come Identification of debris is a problem Very few liability insurers agree to cover space
debris. Clearly, liability insurance is not an appropriate
solution if only because debris’ life often well exceed insurance companies’ life
Summary 142 Space debris are real problems Standards for mitigating space debris are the highest priority
There are International and National guidelines but no guidance
Mitigation policies are being evolved worldwide Orbital debris and reentry hazards are emerging problems for space operators Good data on actual reentry breakups would reduce uncertainty No major collision incidents to date, probability increasing Capabilities to predict collision, reentry, related hazards are evolving Governments, manufacturers, operators taking actions to minimize future
threats
Increased emphasis on space situational awareness for protecting critical assets
and capabilities
Indonesia Needs Space Environment Awareness 143
Defined as a comprehensive knowledge of the population of space objects, of existing threats/risks, and of the space environment.
Universe is for everyone’s dream and great work
144
